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<br /> <br /> III. Evaluation <br /> <br /> A. How is success or_._failur_e_ of this Pr-ogram determined? <br /> <br /> The supporters of the program have measured the success of <br /> <br /> the program in two ways= by "number-of-plants-seized"14and by <br /> <br /> "street-price." 15 <br /> <br /> 1 _.._Number_s of plants ._s_eized_,.. <br /> <br /> In the early years of the program, the police department <br /> <br /> reported raw numbers of plants seized as if this by itself would <br /> <br /> be evidence of success and a sufficient reason for continuing the <br /> <br /> funding for the program.16 Graph # 2 represents the number-of- <br /> <br /> plants-seized reported by the police department to councilmembers <br /> <br /> between 1980 and 1996. The number of seized plants peaks in 1987 <br /> <br /> and has declined since. <br /> <br /> The obvious problem with using numbers-of-plants-seized as a <br /> <br /> measure of the success or failure of the program is that the <br /> <br /> total number of plants is unknown and difficult to estimate. <br /> <br /> Without the total number of plants grown, the amount of the <br /> <br /> yearly harvest cannot be put in perspective. If one million <br /> <br /> plants are harvested and two million were planted, this number <br /> <br /> represents fifty percent, a significant result for the program; <br /> <br /> if ten million were planted, then this number represents only ten <br /> <br /> percent of the total, a much less significant result. <br /> <br /> The estimate of total number of plants grown varies widely. <br /> <br /> In 1981 the police department estimated the total number of <br /> <br /> plants growing on the island at between 1,000,000 and <br /> <br /> 1,600,000.17 Six years later, the police seized 1,700,000 <br /> <br /> <br /> 4 <br />