|
I
<br /> I
<br /> Table 7. Components of Population Change, increase in average household size. In the last
<br /> Hawaii, 1990-2014 ten years, Hawaii's statewide average
<br /> household size increased by 2.8 percent from
<br /> INet Natural Net 2.88 persons per household to 3.11.
<br /> Change Increase Migration
<br /> 1990 to 2000 Table 8 presents the number of households for
<br /> I
<br /> Hawaii 28,360 10,477 17,883 the State and counties since 1990, along with
<br /> the DBEDT forecast to 2040.
<br /> Honolulu 39,925 86,733 -46,808
<br /> 1 I Kauai 7,286 4,601 2,685 Table 8. Number of Households, 1990-2040
<br /> Maui 27,737 11,301 16,436 County
<br /> State 103,308 113,112 -9,804 Hawaii Honolulu Kaua'i Maui State
<br /> I2000 to 2010 1990 41,461 265,304 16,253 33,145 356,163
<br /> Hawaii 36,402 9,914 26,488 1995 49,282 275,877 18,967 38,326 382,452
<br /> Honolulu 77,051 68,958 8,093 2000 52,985 286,450 20,370 43,507 403,312
<br /> I Kaua`i 8,628 3,517 5,111 2005 60,396 300,557 21,997 48,393 431,343
<br /> Maui 26,683 10,729 15,954 2010 67,096 304,827 23,240 51,281 446,444
<br /> I
<br /> State 148,764 93,118 55,646 2015 70,668 311,136 24,569 54,437 460,811
<br /> 2010 to 2014 2020 77,902 316,706 25,902 58,635 479,144
<br /> Hawai`i 8,973 3,723 5,250 2025 84,228 320,808 27,307 62,833 495,176
<br /> I
<br /> Honolulu 39,631 26,529 13,102 2030 90,554 323,442 28,788 67,031 509,815
<br /> Kaua`i 3,404 1,279 2,125 2035 96,304 324,608 30,349 71,229 522,491
<br /> I
<br /> Maui 8,249 3,815 4,434 2040 102,008 324,307 32,056 75,428 522,798
<br /> State 60,257 35,346 24,911 Source: Decennial Census 1990, 2000; ACS 1-year estimates
<br /> 2005,ACS 5-year estimates 2010, DBEDT 2040 Projections 2015-
<br /> Source: DBEDT Data Book, 2009, Table 1.59, 2010, Table 2040
<br /> I
<br /> 1.56,and 2014,Table 1.59.
<br /> In Table 9, we see all three of the population
<br /> This kind of growth pattern tends to increase growth factors related to housing demand: total
<br /> I
<br /> demand at the lower end of the market. Many population, households, and household size.
<br /> immigrants from the Pacific, for instance, have Ideally, if there were a simple 5 percent change
<br /> fewer economic resources, less education, and in population, we would expect a 5 percent
<br /> Ifewer job skills than the current population. It change in households, and a zero percent
<br /> takes time for them to gain the economic footing change in average household size. If supply
<br /> required to compete in Hawaii's housing market. were running ahead of demand, we would get a
<br /> I
<br /> c. Households and Household Size 5 percent increase in households, or perhaps
<br /> even greater as pent-up demand is relieved.
<br /> That would result in a zero or even a negative
<br /> I We generally measure household formation in change in average household size. But if
<br /> terms of the increase in households reported by demand runs ahead of supply, then a 5 percent
<br /> the U.S. Census. Assuming a constant growth in population will produce less than five
<br /> household size, the number of households percent growth in households (as pent-up
<br /> I should increase at a rate similar to that of the demand increases and household formation is
<br /> total population. Slower household formation delayed), and positive growth in average
<br /> may be due to social change, economic household size.
<br /> I recession, or a shortage of new housing units.
<br /> Some would-be movers will remain housed
<br /> within existing households. This will result in an
<br /> I
<br /> Hawaii Housing Planning Study,2016 _ Page 15
<br /> ©SMS, Inc. December,2016
<br />
|