2016 Hawaii Housing Planning Study

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IP` L Table 13. HHPS Demand Survey Demand Estimates, by County, 2016 County Honolulu Maui Hawaii Kaua`i State Number Pct Number Pct. Number Pct. Number Pct Number Pct. Total Households 317,459 100.0% 55,059 100 0% 66,989 100.0% 23,369 100.0% 462,876 100 0% Will not move 127,082 40.0% 26,275 47 7% 33,653 50.2% 13,014 55.7% 200,024 43 2% Raw Demand 190,377 60 0% 28,784 52.3% 33,336 49.8% 10,355 44.3% 262,852 56.8% Move out of state 49,421 26.0% 6,340 22.0% 7,867 23 6% 1,754 16.9% 65,382 24.9% Will move, no plan 38,010 20.0% 4,875 16 9% 5,267 15.8% 2,156 20.8% 50,307 19.1% Effective Demand 102,946 54.1% 17,569 61.0% 20,202 60.6% 6,445 62.2% 147,163 56.0% Source' Housing Demand Survey,2016 Raw demand is households that plan to move "Will move out of state"is the number of households whose first location choice was out-of-state. "Will move, no plan" is the number of households who were unsure or refused to report when they expected to move. Out-of-state and no plan households are excluded from effective demand. In 2016, raw demand was 57 percent statewide, previous demand surveys. It differed slightly up from 40 percent in 2011. At 60 percent of all from one county to another (Hawaii and Kauai: households, the City and County of Honolulu had 38%, Honolulu: 29.4%, Maui: 31%). the highest raw demand. Other counties had similar levelso of raw demand (Maui: 52.3%, Reasons for Not Buying Hawaii: 49.8%, Kauai: 44.3%). For all movers (56%) to realized their expectation and move to a new housing unit, would result in 262,852 real We asked the 2016 Housing Demand Survey estate transactions -- the number of units that respondents who were interested in moving to a why home, but not interested in buying, would change hands during the period. the Y would not buy. Sixty-four percent of them told us that home prices were too high, or that it was too Reasons for Leaving the State expensive to buy right now (Table 14). The Demand Survey also asked respondents if Twenty-eight percent said they could not afford they would move out of the State on their next the down payment; 14 percent said they could move. About 22 percent of them said they would not afford the monthly payment; and 12 percent move out of state. That was lower than the 24 said they could not qualify for a mortgage loan. percent reported in 2011, but higher than the 18 percent reported in both 2006 and 2003 Less than ten percent (9.2%) said they preferred (Appendix Table A-13). to rent right now. Some of those were not going to be in Hawaii for a long time and they did not The Demand Survey also asked those who want to be tied down to any one place. Others wanted to move out of State why they were were not ready for the kind of commitment that leaving. Thirty-one percent of them said housing home ownership requires. was one of the problems causing them to move. That was slightly higher than the 30 percent reported in 2011 and higher than in any of our I I ' Hawai'i Housing Planning Study,2016 Page 19 ©SMS, Inc. December, 2016 I