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1 <br /> I <br /> III. HOUSING FORECASTS,, 2015-2025 <br /> 3 <br /> The focus of the HHPS is on planning — using Market history is apparent in the supply line, with <br /> housing market information to develop courses its pattern of rapid growth and longer adjustment <br /> of action in housing development over the next periods. A notable drop in housing production is j <br /> few years. Planning's future-oriented viewpoint evident in the 2009-2010 growth rate following <br /> requires more than information on past the Great Recession in 2008 (Figure 9). <br /> performance. It requires a forecast of how the j <br /> housing market will function in the future. The forecast suggests continued slow growth in <br /> Hawaii's housing market. Specifically, it predicts <br /> A. HOUSING SUPPLY slow production rates between 2016 and 2020. <br /> The percentage of growth during this period <br /> We measured supply in terms of housing units ranges from 0.88 to 1.08 percent annually <br /> added each year with separate estimates for <br /> single-family and multi-family units. For past Changing any of the underlying assumptions will <br /> years, added units were entered as the alter the forecast. Increasing population growth, <br /> difference between housing unit counts for two decreasing unemployment, and declining interest <br /> adjacent years. Supply forecasts were based on rates will all work toward increasing demand and <br /> past performance of the housing market, the need for more housing units. Slower growth <br /> population growth, and household formation (a in any of those assumptions would decrease the <br /> function of household size over time). need for new units. I <br /> 1. Modeled Supply B. HOUSING DEMAND <br /> Estimatedproduction of new housin units for We estimate demand in terms of new household I <br /> Hawaii between 1990 and 2040 isgshown in formation.31 Estimating demand involves <br /> Figure 9. Historical data were taken from determining the number of housing units that will <br /> decennial census and ACS data, as well as be required to house the net number of new <br /> authorized county building permits. households each year. The estimates are <br /> calculated for a given population (or projected <br /> population, in the case of a forecast), the <br /> Figure 9. New Construction, State of Hawaii, population residing in households, and <br /> 1990-2040 <br /> loo _ 5% assumptions about the average household size <br /> ,000 -HousJng Unit Growth Rate (household formation). Demand estimates <br /> e0o,000 _ —Total Housing Units -- assume that the characteristic conditions of our <br /> 496 housing stock, the workings of our housing <br /> r 500.00° ec market, and the accumulated impact of past j <br /> p 3% I market inefficiencies, are maintained throughout <br /> eo 400,000 <br /> a the next 25 years. Finally, any demand estimate <br /> = 300,000 D reflects the number of units required to house <br /> population growth but does not speak to whether <br /> 200000 the needed units will be built. <br /> 1% <br /> 100,000 _ .. _ _ 1 _ . <br /> 31 Note: The discussion of demand in the previous section <br /> o „rrrI' n rn-rrn rnitir ��frrr„ liii�n r���� o% was based on the Demand Survey where "demand" is <br /> b, F, f i� o o E g N N N g M gi identified byhousingconsumers. Data from past I C, C, O, O, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 <br /> Demand Surveys have been incorporated in the <br /> Source: Hawaii Housing Model, 2016 Housing Model. What appears here is the end result of <br /> supply and demand characteristics of the local housing <br /> market <br /> I <br /> Hawai'i Housing Planning Study,2016 Page 32 <br /> ©SMS, Inc December,2016 <br />