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theres no really, you know, if theres no -. Because this flood plain is really, really
<br />several miles long and there is no document on how high at each point is. So, you know,
<br />the entire flood analysis is based on a calculated number.
<br />MOORE:I think, you know, theres two points here. One is on whats
<br />happening in the flood way itself during a major flood event, and this is a theoretical
<br />assessment. Were looking at regulations in terms of flood levels, and that is what hes
<br />showing, is that the Base Flood Elevations as calculated by FEMA will not change by the
<br />fill in this area.
<br />And just to, you know, the, anecdotal, there was amajor flood event a couple of years
<br />ago and, you know, we walked around and spoke to the resident right here, and there was
<br />no flooding from the stream coming into his house. So theres anecdotal information that
<br />the floodways dont, and I think there were some other representations. But in terms of
<br />thefloodway,now,theressomelocalizeddrainageissueswhichwecantalkabout.SoI
<br />think there is, you know, some comfort that the calculated levelsand the actual levels are
<br />there, but heslooking at calculated levels based on information and modeling provided
<br />by FEMA.
<br />SPRINGER:Any follow-up, Commissioner Graham?
<br />GRAHAM:No follow-up.
<br />SPRINGER:Commissioner Alameda?
<br />ALAMEDA:I understand what you presented is atheoretical calculation. And
<br />even myself as I do research, theres no guarantees on the theoretical part, but there is
<br />probabilities. And I know that in my own research, you know, like, for example, when I
<br />publish a study, you know, theresa 95percent chance that the results that Im publishing
<br />is indeed represents truth and theres 5 percent error, which is the unknown. In your
<br />calculations, what would be the percent of error or the unknown? Is there any -?
<br />FANG:I think the error is, theres so many factors in the floodstudy and I
<br />cannot say, you know, what is my calculation of FEMAs calculations compared to the
<br />real life situation. All I can sayismysituation compares with FEMAs situation. And,
<br />because I use the same volume or the same flow volume as FEMA,and I try to keep all
<br />the factors the same except the topography.
<br />MOORE:I think, you know, theother factor that he has built into this is and,
<br />Yen, correct me cause Im, you know, when FEMA calculates their flood zone they said
<br />they squeeze it down and looked at the one-foot rise. So weve already got in one-foot
<br />free board as kind of a safety valve which FEMA allows you to fill back up to, the
<br />County does not. So there already is a built-in safety valve within the Countys more
<br />conservative interpretation of the law. So I think, you know, and, again, I think its hard
<br />for Yen to go back to look at the entire process for determining flood zones. So what we
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