Wildland Fire Danger Elevated in Hawaii with Drought in Forecast

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v:.iweu�u (IIV uat+tyta VIVVOIAXI ui fltIVV411wltft Wuustu Lu itneuist according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu. nup:.'iwww. siaraaveruser.convzo i 8/ 11./ i amawa,i-news/wtiaiana-tir... What that means for Hawaii is that "fuel loading' — or the ample growth of grasses, bushes and trees — has boosted the chance of fire activity across the state to "above average," the National Interangency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, said. Additionally, sea surface temperatures around the islands are warmer than usual, and air temperatures are expected to be slightly above average through March, according to the center's seasonal forecast. Rainfall was above normal in October but dropped off sharply in November. "Fuel loading has been above average since last spring, and fire activity was above average during the drier portions of the summer. Therefore, as dry weather continues, significant fire potential will increase to above normal in December and remain there through March and likely beyond," the forecast said. While Hawaii is the only region of the country labeled with above -normal wildland fire potential throughout the winter months, the coastal region of California, from San Francisco to the Mexican border, is tagged similarly through December only. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center last week raised the chances of El Nino occurring this winter to 90 percent. For Hawaii, El Nino often translates into summer moisture followed by winter drought. Drought conditions will be increasingly prevalent in the coming decades, said Clay Trauernicht, UH-Manoa wildland fire specialist and author of a study that examined how climate change will affect wildfires in Hawaii and tropical areas around the world. The paper, published in Science of the Total Environment, not only discusses the effects of climate change on fire, but demonstrates how tracking rainfall patterns year to year can help better forecast near-term wildfire risk, including the danger that excess rainfall in advance of drought can pose to Hawaii's vulnerable grasslands. As for the current fire danger, Trauernicht said environmental conditions are quite similar right now to the period right before August, when a string of storms built up the fuel load and the drying islands were struck by a rash of wildland fires that burned nearly 30,000 acres. "It's looking real sketchy going into January and February," Trauernicht said. Changing weather pattems and fire -prone, non- native grasses that have invaded a quarter of the state in recent decades have put Hawaii's forests and !of 3 12/18/2018, 9 26 AM