2011 Housing Planning Study - State of Hawaii

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to 55 percent for the City and County of As usual, there were more residents from Honolulu. Honolulu planning to move out of State than from other counties. We were surprised to see From raw demand we subtracted households Hawai-i County's figure jump from 12 percent to that stated they plan to move but had no time 22 percent this year. Residents on Maui and frame for doing so. That produced an estimate Kaua-i continue to enjoy the Aloha State and of final demand that is comparable across time. plan to stay in Hawaii when they move to new Final demand includes those households that homes. plan to move and have a definite time frame for doing so. In 2011, final demand was 40 percent Across the state, effective demand is expected statewide. At 43 percent of all households, the to be equal to about 30 percent of all 2011 City and County of Honolulu had the highest final households. Demand was highest for Maui and demand. The Counties of Hawai-i and Kaua-i Honolulu (31%), and lowest in the County of had the lowest final demand at 33 percent. Hawai-i (26%). Price increases have been higher on Maui and, while more units have been The most narrowly defined measure of demand, added to the inventory than in other counties, the effective demand, includes only those level of out-of-state ownership has also been households that plan to move, have a definite much higher (see Table 7). This suggests that time frame for doing so, and plan to remain in pent-up demand may be higher for Maui than for the State of Hawaii when they move to their the other counties. next home. Nearly one-quarter of all those who want to move expressed a desire to move out of the State of Hawai-i, up from 18 percent in 2006. Table 8. Interest in Moving to a New Home by County, 2006 and 2011 Wantto Has formed Final Will not Estimated County move to a new plans to demand for move out-of- Effective number of Year home move homes state Demand movers City&County of 2006 39% 85% 33% 79% 31% 93,528 Honolulu 2011 54% 79% 43% 73% 31% 97,429 County of Maui 2006 45% 88% 401/o 88% 39% 19,577 2011 47% 78% 37% 86% 31% 16,937 County of Hawaii 2006 42% 86% 39% 88% 37% 22,796 2011 42% 79% 33% 78% 26% 17,412 County of Kauai 2006 36% 86% 31% 81% 29% 6,362 2011 42% 79% 33% 84% 27% 6,339 State of Hawaii 2006 40% 85% 34% 82% 33% 142,263 L_ 1 2011 51% 79% 401/o 76% 301/o 1 138,116 Source: Housing Demand Survey, 2006 and 2011 Note. "Will move out of state" is the number of households whose first choice was out-of-state. Final demand eliminates out-of-state movers from the raw demand estimate. Percentages shown in Table 8 are percent of all households. "Estimated number of movers" is the number of households planning to move to a new unit less the number of households whose next home will be outside Hawai'i. Improved sampling techniques in 2011 suggest that demand on Oahu was underestimated and homeownership was overestimated in 2006 due to the absence of cell-phone-only households in the sample. Hawaii Housing Planning Study,2011 Page 13 0 SMS, Inc. November,2011