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a. Employment and Affordable Prices 27 <br /> b. Affordable units in the housing stock 28 <br /> III. HOUSING PROJECTIONS, 2019-2040 29 <br /> A. HOUSING SUPPLY 29 <br /> 1. Housing Supply Projection 29 <br /> 2. Housing Supply Projection Caveats 30 <br /> 3. The Pipeline 33 <br /> a. Classifying Housing Units 34 <br /> b. Affordable and Market Rate Units 36 <br /> B. HOUSING DEMAND 37 <br /> 1. Official Demand Estimates 37 <br /> 2. Total New Units Needed 38 <br /> 3. Housing Demand Projection Caveats 43 <br /> a. Rising Mortgage Rates 43 <br /> b. Risk of Recession 43 <br /> a. Slowing Population Growth 44 <br /> b. Tax Reform 44 <br /> c. Student Loan Debt 45 <br /> f. Homeless/Special Needs Households 46 <br /> C. NEEDED UNITS BY INCOME LEVEL 46 <br /> 1. Types of Units Needed 46 <br /> 2. Units for Elderly Housing 47 <br /> IV. HOUSING ISSUES 49 <br /> A. SPECIAL NEEDS HOUSING IN HAWAII 49 <br /> 1. Demand for Special Needs Housing 49 <br /> a. Economic Barriers to Accessing Housing 49 <br /> b. Need for Special Services 50 <br /> c. Special Needs Housing is Often Temporary 50 <br /> d. Special Needs Persons in Need of Housing 51 <br /> 2. Inventory of Special Needs Housing 52 <br /> 3. Needed Units for Special Needs Population 54 <br /> a. Currently in Housing, Need for Care Homes/Facilities, or in-Home Services. 54 <br /> b. Need for Shelter/Clinics/Transitional Housing, then Permanent Housing 54 <br /> 4. Recommendation 55 <br /> B. HOMELESSNESS IN HAWAII 56 <br /> 1. Introduction 56 <br /> a. Definition of Homeless Status 56 <br /> b. Context, Policies and Impact 56 <br /> Methodology 57 <br /> 2. Number of Homeless Households 58 <br /> 3. Reducing the Number of Homeless 59 <br /> a. Preventing Homelessness 59 <br /> b. Providing Housing as Quickly as Possible 60 <br /> Hawai'i Housing Planning Study,2019 Page vi <br /> ©SMS December,2019 <br />