2020-2024 Consolidated Plan - Laserfiche WebLink

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Obviously, changes in model assumptions would alter results. Increasing employment, for instance, would push up household incomes,shortening the current adjustment period and increasing the volume of the next run-up. Increasing interest rates would have the opposite effect. HOUSING SUPPLY The Hawai'i Housing Planning Study measures supply in terms of housing units added each year with separate estimates for single-family and multi-family units. For past years, added units are the difference between housing unit counts for two adjacent years. Forecasts of added units are based on past performance of the housing market, population growth household formation, household income, and expected interest rates. The assumptions applied for the supply forecast are the same as those noted above for the demand forecast. NEEDED UNITS The ultimate objective of the modeling exercise was to estimate the number of new housing units needed in Hawaii over the next 5 years, 2020 to 2025. In 2019, the needed units estimate was calculated using the unmet demand from the Housing Demand Survey adjusted to accommodate population change then added units needed to accommodate homeless households entering the affordable housing market. TOTAL NEW UNITS NEEDED Based on the model,the total number of housing units that will be needed in Hawaii County over the next 5 years, 2020 to 2025 is approximately 13,300 units. Units that are not built represent the shortage of units needed to fill total demand for housing units. The shortage results from market inefficiencies(lack of information or coordination, lag times, etc.), regulations that dampen supply, and economic realities(difficulties of producing units below market prices, etc.). This shortage has come to be known as"needed units" and is defined as the difference between total demand and expected supply. Identified in the Housing Demand Survey, the median household income for the State was$74,985. The median was slightly higher for the City and County of Honolulu ($95,404) and approximately equal for the County of Maui and Kauai ($74,710 and $74,357, respectively). The County of Hawai'i's median household income was well below the statewide median ($59,473). TYPES OF UNITS NEEDED The Hawaii Housing Model was used to develop the total number of needed units by county and for the State as a whole. The distribution of needed units by tenure, type, and market level was developed from Housing Demand Survey data. Consolidated Plan HAWAII COUNTY 21 CMB Control No.2506-0117(exp.06/30/2018)