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Home My WebLink About2024-09-25 PL-INT-2024-008759 GP 2045 Draft Comments - D. Thompson DeVera, Ashley From: sharkgss < Sent: Wednesday, September 25, 2024 5:31 PM To: Planning General Plan Cc: Evans, Cynthia F.W.; Kimball, Heather; Kanealii-Kleinfelder, Matt Subject: Testimony Hawaii General Plan - OPPOSE rationale Aloha, After attending 23 September workshop in Waimea regarding the 2045 Hawaii County plan, it was very clear no one that attended was in favor of the final proposed draft. The language was not practical for the needs of the community with the most common concern being lack of water to sustain the projected population growth, followed by land use, lack of affordable housing and transportation needs. My intention as a 33 year national security expert is to provide overview testimony of more imminent issues in emergency management we as a community must prepare for in addition to long term planning based on population growth. Agenda for the 21st Century by Non Governmental Organizations - Stakeholders In the first sentence of policy rationale executive summary in the 2023 Integrated Climate Action Plan (ICAP) for Hawaii states "The United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded in its most recent report that human activities have unequivocally caused global warming." https://records.hawaiicounty.gov/WebLink/1/edoc/135070/County%20of%20Hawaii%20- 201ntegrated%20Climate%20Action%20Plan%20(2023).pdf This ICAP template is solely focused on human based activities which have less than 1% impact on our climate according to numerous sources. ICAP also fails to mention space weather events which have far more repercussions to all lifeforms and human civilization. The UN and other non governmental organizations such as the World Economic Forum (WEF) have been touting this narrative for decades as a mechanism to implement Agenda 21. The Hawaii County Planning Department should educate on the history of this agenda which is linked to consolidation of power by the few (Stakeholders) to form a New World Order with full intention to erode individual freedom and sovereign nations. Dr. Jacob Nordangard provides a historical overview in the video link below. These policies fail to uphold our God given rights and legislators captured by this Agenda have already begun to introduce draconian bills without understanding repercussions of their actions upon the community. https://rumble.com/v1 gxp4i--full-history-of-the-wef-un-the-climate-change-hoax-covid-19-and-the-people.html On September 22, 2024 the UN consolidated its reach into sovereign nations despite pushback and adopted the Pact for the Future, in which Heads of State and Government— representing the peoples of the world — made 56 pledges to action seeking to protect the needs and interests of present and future generations amid the climate change, crisis and conflict currently gripping the globe. "Nevertheless, at the outset of the meeting, the representative of the Russian Federation proposed an amendment (document A/79/L.3) to the Pact, stating that"no one is happy with this text". That amendment proposed the addition of language relating to the United Nations' intervention in "matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any State" and to avoiding certain duplication of effort." https://press.un.org/en/2024/ga12627.doc.htm The rationale behind the Hawaii County plan does not address significant earth changes even though world governments have been preparing for decades As of 2015 "The Earth's core is in the midst of a significant change. During the last 400 years, the geomagnetic field, or magnetosphere, has declined in strength by a remarkable 40%. Measurements by ESA's SWARM geomagnetism monitoring satellite array have further confirmed this change with measurements indicating the magnetic field is weakening ten times faster than previously predicted. The weakening trend in the magnetic field clearly shows that the Earth's core is undergoing a substantial transformation. The Earth's geomagnetic field is responsible for both shielding the atmosphere and biosphere from the harmful effects of solar and cosmic radiation, and creating conditions on the surface that are ripe for life. The magnetosphere, then, is the invisible barrier that has played a significant role in protecting the Earth from the harmful effects of space." https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1040918.pdf Although man-made weather modification thru geoengineering patents are also implicated for the uptick in many local and regional events to include storms, flooding, and fires (including Lahaina which was blamed on a hurricane over 500 miles away) over the last few decades; it is worth noting that our sun, planetary alignments, cycles, and space weather ultimately drive weather patterns. According to 50 year meteorologist David Dilley among others, we are entering a cooling pattern. https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/links-to-geoengineering-patents/ While non governmental organizations such as the WEF tout climate change is coming from human carbon emissions, world governments are preparing for adverse space weather during a polarity transition building vast underground infrastructure. In October 2016 the Obama administration issued Executive Order 13744 to all departments Coordinating Efforts To Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events. This executive order was written after the 2015 research document by Tyler J. Williams, Captain, USAF (above link) that evaluated the impacts to US infrastructure of increases in solar and cosmic radiation regarding the weakening magnetosphere of our planet. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2016/10/18/2016-25290/coordinating-efforts-to-prepare-the-nation-for- space-weather-events 2015. poor IIYd 2045; oeurrnrd• ,. 1ea� 1%4 ,AW i$ I ti7MI � anae.... ftwoota B41,11 b Ward 1+w9l M Wandering magnetic north pole moving out of Canada toward Siberia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's magnetic field Just 10 days before the above executive order was signed, the Russian Government hosted a training event of 40 million civilians, 200,000 emergency rescuers and 50,000 units of equipment from October 4 to October 7, 2016. It took 3 days to do a mock evacuation of 40 million civilians into 5000 bunkers. This was a massive civil defense exercise carried out for the first time in modern history. It is worth noting that a nuclear war scenario would not allow time to evacuate that amount of civilians into bunkers. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717446/russia-evacuate-40-million-people-emergency-drill-vladimir-putin- ww3 2 lid (321) Inbox I sh.arkgss@a protonrnJ Q9 GoDaddy Online Store AdrrHs-i Big Island General PI washingtonpost.corm`climate-environment/2021 _9 An effort to understand Earth's pas First vertebrates on land 40°C Glok 30 surf temp 20 10 485 million years ago 390 Source: "A 485-million-year history of Earth's surface temperature", averages for geological periods. Shaded area shows values with a By Sarah Kaplan a September 19, 20: 3 Hawaii General plan mentions the potential to sequester CO2 as rationale to reduce man made impacts, even though temperature levels are drastically lower now than they have been in 485 million years (see chart above) Photosynthesis activity in plants requires CO2 and only makes up 0.04% of our atmosphere. Reduction of this necessary element would have a catastrophic chain reaction and is a risk to ALL carbon based lifeforms. Several long-term studies have provided strong support demonstrating that growing crops under elevated [CO2] can increase photosynthesis and result in an increase in yield, flavour and nutritional content (including but not limited to Vitamins C, E and pro-vitamin A). In the case of tomato, increases in yield by as much as 80% are observed when plants are cultivated at woo ppm [CO2], which is consistent with current commercial greenhouse production methods in the tomato fruit industry. These results provide a clear demonstration of the potential for elevating [CO2] for improving yield and quality in greenhouse crops. https://academic.oup.com/hr/article/10/4/uhad026/7049409?login=false This testimony is to provide overall big picture of extinction level event(s) to instigate community emergency preparedness as part of the overall plan Increased solar radiation as a result of the earths weakening magnetosphere and polarity shift will significantly impact survivability of our community. There will be significant disruptions of the supply chain, challenges with food production, energy blackouts, and limited communications. Community preparedness for such events are not documented in the draft general plan, meanwhile many eastern hemisphere nations including Russia, Thailand, and Japan have been preparing for these events with local civil defense for years. Citizens of Hawaii county are aware of the influx of billionaires over the last 20 years that have had impact on county policy and planning. Many have taken permanent residence and hedging Hawaii island has a good chance of survivability during these changes. In light of this information, my suggestion is for our county to birth its own plan based on the needs of the community expressed in numerus testimonies and include space weather scenarios as potential hazards. County officials would be wise to form a committee of experienced personnel from various departments - including the local community members with relevant capabilities that can prioritize and draft a community plan that includes emergency preparedness that is relevant to our our island. We need to focus on independence with agricultural food production, innovative energy and building technologies and resilience thru preparation to create our own future we want to see. Mahalo for your service, Donna Thompson Kamuela, HI 4 ''''''C',../ 5 o `.# ,� r= iii �� .;.I�;�' Wim? - ;�,.:�.�"'' atm ,+ #^� � ♦#y r.; r ;,• � ., June 2023 -r . ., .”.„f,1/4r., Integrated..,,,----L--.1,--.":•t;'-,•-,4,'--•---.'_•-,''r=.,,',.,---# ,4.:.•..,...,„,,,.,.,.... ...,.„,,,,.„,-...,,,.„-..:....„.,„.x..-...:,.r„-f....,..._.. ,_.,...„.,,.,,,--. ...,, M_. :.. -.. : Cli• mate ...,-..„, - -. . A . .,..„ .,..,. �. 3T :4 �} 4 • II . ' Action Plan ...‘ .. . . . . w, ... . ., . ., . ,. . , _ forthe � r7A �, �, �.. .. ,., .......„ ,. -4 Island of ... . ; _ . ..„.., . .. ,.. . . .. y y�� Hawai' i a1L I '' Greenhouse Gas w = il - eE .- k' ,-----':=,:-..44....-7,..-. .- . . z i , .p Reduction and s a • = , . _ _,. . Climate Adaptation • : Actions to Build- ir .r - Y � Local Resilience to t �. . ,� �,x b y Climate Change rw �r � ” ;," ..4n'm ...,*- �`�` .,.44,,4E :.. i ,[ ,,t` , J'`t C,';•P44,•---*"' L `R_' Mt. ; fps";+ee1a,,--, t' 's fY rc .,,, ,,� . .„ V. -'. •=--,..- -. vkor ,i2,. ..,.,,..,„ 4,., ....,,. , k .. ,„.,„. .r. - ..,.,.: :. - i 8pp,. Y ,.. ::. :1,T,i,, i7,,••,;f:, ..,... • , ... . ._.. . :,. ., .,....s., A • omt .,r♦# . 'F• w- .�"4\ � rk4 1i • „�, r ' 6 •''-1;,•'.'' L sri • '4:4-- ' e •,. Y J�'q µ .y..4 -. ` � FPS"_ • oft . -, • • „,.„.,..„ .. ..„...„...„,,,,•-•';nit.'''''rf'' .4.',*; i.' 'Al° :J „.: ' ' . �y ..r`. - j,i * '.w. ,.4 ,may R TETRA TECH a t2 r Gy, `� p AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change d► 'r_rwiL !_AND ACKNOWLEDGMENT We wish to recognize and respect Kanaka Maoli people as the original and continuing stewards of the land known as Hawaii County. Through the ahupua'a system, Kanaka Maoli people managed the island waters and land for over a thousand years. Acknowledging the land is an expression of gratitude to the territory that nurtures us and the host culture and people who have built a relationship with and understanding of the land. Climate change is inextricably linked to the exploitation of people, land, and nature. Land acknowledgements recognize that this exploitation is tied to colonialism as a current and ongoing process and that governments have played a significant role in facilitating colonization on this land. The pursuit of colonization has resulted in significant loss of traditional knowledge, cultural practices, and native ecosystems that are essential for stewarding nature and preventing climate change. While it is outside the scope of this document, it is essential that the restoration and conservation of these traditional systems of knowing and ecological stewardship guide climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change is an existential threat to all life and natural systems globally and here in Hawaii. The natural cycle of greenhouse gases flowing from land and water to air (the greenhouse gas effect) enables life as we know it to exist. However, human activities have created an enhanced greenhouse effect that causes unprecedented warming of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans. This warming triggers complex, cascading effects that jeopardize natural systems on Earth. To restore balance to our natural system, we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions at the local level. In order to prepare for the current and future effects of climate change, we need to weave climate adaptation into our efforts to build resilient communities. This Integrated Climate Action Plan (ICAP) for the Island of Hawaii establishes a greenhouse gas emissions baseline for the County, describes the impacts of climate change on natural hazards and community systems, and identifies both climate mitigation and adaptation actions that Hawaii County can take to reduce or minimize these effects. Land Acknowledgment ii Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t _ter Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change itFav"r�� Ere a ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The ICAP was developed and reviewed with the assistance of consultants, a Working Group and Technical Reviewers. Bethany Morrison, County Planning, and Kendra Obermaier, County Research and Development, led the planning effort. Amy DeBay (Focused Planning Solutions) and Kitty Courtney (Tetra Tech, Inc.) provided technical support in developing the plan framework, risk and exposure analysis, and Climate Cascade Mapping Tool. The Climate Action Working Group contributed to development and review of the plan. Members of County departments reviewed the actions. Members of the public submitted 247 comments and viewed the plan 3,000 times during the public review period. The County would like to extend a mahalo to all the community partners, reviewers, and County staff who contributed to the ongoing feedback and development of the ICAP. Climate Action Plan Working Group Graceson Ghen Hawaii Energy Dr. Peter Matlock University of Hawaii-Hilo Heather Kimball County Council, District 1 Noel Morin Hawaii EV Steve Hirakami Hawaii Academy of Arts&Sciences Erica Perez Coral Reef Alliance Kilohona Hirano Kamehameha Schools Cindi Punihaole Kennedy Hawaii Community College Nicole Larson Keahole Center for Sustainability Rachel Solemsaas Hawaii Community College Dr. Robin Martin Arizona State University Jennifer Zelko Hawaiian Electric County Staff Planning Finance Zendo Kern, Director Deana Sako, Director Keith Okamoto, Director Bethany Morrison Diane Nakagawa Kawika Uyehara Natasha Soriano Sarah Yeckley Kurt Inaba Heather Bartlett Paka Davis Environmental Management Warren Ching Janice Hata Ramzi Mansour, Director Parks air,, Recreation Kara Neal Brenda lokepa-Moses Maurice Messina. Director Sam Bergstrom Sanne Berrig Michelle Hiraishi Dora Beck James Komata Douglass Adams, Director Kendra Obermaier Steve Pause, Director Talmadge Magno, Director Jake Sykes Malia Kekai Berry Periatt Michelle Agbigay Keone Thompson Riley Saito Julann Sonomora Issa Moffett Kazuo Todd, Chief Erika Lisco Othce of housing Ian Chadwick Susan Kunz, Director Technical Review Dr. Makena Coffman University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Urban and Regional Planning; Institute for Sustainability and Resilience Dr. Victoria Keener Arizona State University and East-West Center, Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments(Pacific RISA) Dr. Bradley Romine University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program; Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center Dr. Clay Trauernicht University of Hawaii at Manoa, College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources Dr. Roberta Marlin Arizona State University Acknowledgments ill Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'rr�� Ere EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded in its most recent report that human activities have unequivocally caused global warming.' Climate change is already impacting the lands and waters on which we live and the health of our communities. Purpose & St,Jpe The ICAP introduces the County of Hawaii's strategic roadmap for implementing climate action. The plan identifies actions the County government itself can take and is a first step for the County holding itself accountable for climate action. The actions outlined in the ICAP will help the County achieve the following vision and goals, in alignment with existing State and County priorities. Vision: We ensure a just transition to a climate resilient island by addressing the causes and impacts of climate change through incorporating equitable climate mitigation and adaptation priorities into policies, programs, infrastructure, and decision making. Goals: 1. Improve county capacity to implement climate action. 2. Reduce the County's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. Increase the resilience of County infrastructure, assets, and services to climate change impacts. Climate Action Framework To accomplish these goals, the ICAP identifies climate mitigation Climate Community g produce greenhouse Change and adaptation actions to be taken Drivers gases which are the byHawaii County. Mitigation main drivers of Y g climate change includes actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and Climate includes actions that Change 4 Intervention points adaptation Indicators are where climate build resilience to climate change action can be taken impacts. Each action has social and Community economic co-benefits beyond Systems climate change. A climate action Climate At physical,social,economic. framework was developed to Change cultural, Hazards native ecosystems, describe the cascading effects of governance climate change and identify intervention points for County action Ex Exposure and risk Communitysystems(see figure). p are impacted by analyses for the cascades were climate change and conducted using a geospatial compounding hazards overlay of climate hazards on maps of County assets. United Nations, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)(2023)Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment(AR6), Summary for Policy Makers. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC AR6 SYR SPM.pdf Executive Summa iv AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t OCI ealke Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'rr�� Ere Five cascading areas of impact were identified. Key intervention points were determined under each cascade. County actions were identified within these key intervention points. Individual actions that can be taken and co-benefits of County actions were also highlighted for each cascade. The implementation section outlines the capacity and financing improvements required to execute the ICAP and the County's process for monitoring and evaluation. The five cascades are: • Climate Cascade 1 — Greenhouse Gas Emissions caused by human activities are the key drivers of human-induced climate change. This climate cascade establishes a baseline for greenhouse gas emissions for the Island of Hawaii from which to develop climate mitigation interventions to reduce Hawaii County contributions to global climate change. • Climate Cascade 2—Air and Sea Surface Temperature are directly influenced by greenhouse gas emissions. These climate change indicators have direct impacts on human and native ecosystem health. • Climate Cascade 3— Drought and Severe Rainfall Events are among the climate hazards resulting from increasing air and sea surface temperature and climate variability. Drought and severe rainfall impacts to community systems are exacerbated by the compounding hazards of wildfire, landslides, windstorms, and riverine flooding. • Climate Cascade 4— Sea Level Rise is a climate hazard with slowly emerging impacts on community systems, compounded by coastal and riverine flooding and landslides. • Climate Cascade 5—Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge are climate hazards with extreme impacts on community systems. Although Hawaii Island alone will not reverse the harmful impacts of climate change, we can lead by example and set precedent for other island-states to become more sustainable through energy conservation and efficiency, clean transportation, zero waste initiatives, and better management of water, land, and natural resources. Executive Summa V .5. if u) Y N e..", = N 9 0 •O d W N LU 0 L) deo Z y c c c o,, d o rL d._._ N ITU E y.' E C en E €2, d s Oy c� `m C7 I ft I I o Wm.o y o� u o m —_ c c o n .N E W o a a _ . Y/ Y1 w c - �i+ 3 d ) dO C I= Q A! 0 4111 2r (o63 !PP41mu: I coW� m /It o R Eo L o � dy a o € d a,Q I E r d aE Ea o� I o � .g,„-; o r Z 4 1 E -= a 11 4Miiiii ! 6. H Yym E E° t' m g� � � 1 w0L-a_ c o d w w [o E w 11(N a C O c.) RS co aiit _ o . y � Nd EN dm-E c.v + Küj; C: k Jwg' .4 Lcc _11 T. Hi-) cn r do � `cOO £ -at J w E .E' 3 N _-Fp CS 00 = U 3 ♦ y E $ m — I a: 3 c U U Z r Q. €o go E o cesw w > L 8 _ I— 0 o I I =>- o Mas I E-g . T J 2 Q 0 �.^ E § m a -0 U U = Z_ ,i'm m g P = o v o- v?i.-n a O a s a E 1 °' d m m = m o `` 3 i 0 f, O 0 ..- =_ R a o Q IY cn m V cu R i bA 61 404 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *e4)1*44, CONTENTS Land Acknowledgment ii Acknowledgments iii Executive Summary iv Contents vii Acronyms xi Key Terms xii Planning Process 1 Vision, Goals, and Alignment 1 Vision 1 Goals 1 Alignment 1 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets 3 Climate Action Framework 4 Climate Cascades 7 Climate Cascade Exposure Analysis 9 Hazard Mapping 10 Asset Mapping 11 Exposure Analysis 11 Intervention Points and Actions 12 Climate Action Co-Benefits 13 Limitations and Future Data Needs 14 Climate Cascade I: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 17 Cascade Narrative 18 Greenhouse Gas Inventory 25 Intervention Points and Actions 27 1A. Energy and Electricity Use 27 1B. Transportation 31 1C. Waste 34 1D. Land Use and Carbon Sequestration 38 Climate Action Co-Benefits 41 Actions You Can Take 42 Climate Cascade 2: Air and Sea Surface Temperature 43 Cascade Narrative 44 Cascade Exposure Analysis 47 Intervention Points and Actions 48 Content AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to lir �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change �► 'rr�� Ere a 2A. Human Health 48 2B. Energy Resilience 50 2C. Coral Reefs 50 Climate Action Co-Benefits 52 Actions You Can Take 53 Climate Cascade 3: Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 54 Cascade Narrative 55 Cascade Exposure Analysis 60 Intervention Points and Actions 64 3A. New Development 64 3B. Water Resources 66 3C. Parks and Recreational Areas 67 3D. Roads and Bridges 68 3E. Water and Wastewater Systems 69 3F. Existing Development 69 Climate Action Co-Benefits 71 Actions You Can Take 72 Climate Cascade 4: Sea Level Rise 73 Cascade Narrative 74 Cascade Exposure Analysis 77 Intervention Points and Actions 80 4A. New Development 80 4B. Cultural and Historic Resources 82 4C. Parks and Recreational Areas 83 4D. Water and Wastewater Systems 83 4E. Roads and Bridges 84 4F. Existing Development 85 Climate Action Co-Benefits 86 Actions You Can Take 87 Climate Cascade 5: Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 88 Cascade Narrative 89 Cascade Exposure Analysis 92 Intervention Points and Actions 95 5A. Critical Infrastructure 96 5B. Social Resilience 96 5C. Economic Resilience 97 5D. Cultural and Historic Resources 97 5E. Hazard Tree Management 98 5F. Operational Capacity 98 Content Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to OCIeiNII Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�o vorre Climate Action Co-Benefits 100 Actions You Can Take 101 Plan Implementation 102 County Processes 103 Short-Term Implementation Priorities: (2023-2025) 103 Mid-Term Implementation Priorities: (2025-2030) 104 Long-Term Implementation Priorities: (2030-2040) 106 Climate Action Financing 106 Monitoring and Evaluation 107 Call to Action 108 Figures Figure 1. Planning process for developing the Integrated Climate Action Plan 1 Figure 2. Timeline of State and County climate action commitments 2 Figure 3. Hawaii County greenhouse gas emission targets 3 Figure 4. Climate action framework 5 Figure 5. Climate cascade summary 8 Figure 6. Exposure analysis components for Climate Cascades 3, 4, and 5 9 Figure 7. Example of cascade exposure levels 11 Figure 8. Climate Cascade 1. Greenhouse gas emissions 17 Figure 9. Locations of County buildings for potential energy retrofits 21 Figure 10. Hawaii County sector overview of MTCO2e emissions for years 2005, 2015, and 2017 25 Figure 11. Climate Cascade 2. Air&sea surface temperature 43 Figure 12. Annual mean temperature (A) historical and (B) end-of century under the IPCC high-emissions scenario (Scenario RCP 8.5) 45 Figure 13. Climate Cascade 3: Drought and extreme rainfall 54 Figure 14. Sequence and duration of drought types 56 Figure 15. Climate Cascade 3: Areas exposed by number of overlapping hazard layers (drought, wildfire, riverine flooding, landslide susceptibility, high windstorms) 61 Figure 16. Climate Cascade 4: Sea level rise 73 Figure 17. Climate Cascade 4: Areas exposed by number of overlapping hazard layers (riverine flooding, chronic and event-based coastal flooding with sea level rise, landslide susceptibility) 78 Figure 18. Climate Cascade 5: Tropical cyclones and storm surge 88 Figure 19. Climate Cascade 5: Areas exposed by number of overlapping hazard layers (hurricane wind and storm surge, riverine flooding, chronic and event-based coastal flooding with sea level rise, landslide susceptibility) 93 Figure 20. Plan Implementation Priorities 102 Contents IX Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to OCI Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Tabfr Table 1. Cascade exposure analysis: hazards analyzed by cascade 10 Table 2. Hawaii County departments with primary responsibilities in the ICAP 12 Table 3. Climate action co-benefits considered in evaluating climate actions 13 Table 4. Climate Cascade 3: Number and type of County assets exposed to individual and overlapping hazards (drought, wildfire, riverine flooding, landslide susceptibility, high windstorms) 62 Table 5. Climate Cascade 3: Number of County assets by district with high cascade exposure (4 or 5 hazard exposures) 63 Table 6. Climate Cascade 4: Number and type of County assets exposed to individual and overlapping hazards (riverine flooding, chronic and event-based coastal flooding with sea level rise, landslide susceptibility) 79 Table 7. Climate Cascade 4: Number of County assets by district with high cascade exposure (4 or 5 hazard exposures) 80 Table 8. Climate Cascade 5: Number and types of County assets exposed to individual and overlapping hazards (hurricane wind and storm surge, riverine flooding, chronic and event-based coastal flooding with sea level rise, landslide susceptibility) 94 Table 9. Climate Cascade 5: Number of County assets by district with high cascade exposure (5 or 6 hazard exposures) 95 Contents X Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to CI__•r Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� ACRONYMS AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use CD Hawaii County Civil Defense CO2 Carbon Dioxide DEM Hawaii County Department of Environmental Management DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DPR Hawaii County Department of Parks and Recreation DPW Hawaii County Department of Public Works DWS Hawaii County Department of Water Supply ENSO El Nino-Southern Oscillation EPA Environmental Protection Agency EV Electric Vehicle FD Hawaii County Fire Department FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map GDE Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystems GHG Greenhouse Gas ICAP Integrated Climate Action Plan IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MTA Mass Transit Agency MTCO2e Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PD Hawaii County Planning Department R&D Hawaii County Department of Research and Development RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SLR Sea Level Rise Acronyms....... Xi Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to CI_ter Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►"'y4� KEY TERMS Carbon sequestration refers to actions that remove carbon from the atmosphere. Cascading effects refers to the network of interactions between human activities causing climate change and the impacts of climate change on community systems. These cascading effects are of greater magnitude than any individual element of the network. Climate adaptation refers to actions that adjust to actual or expected future climate with the goal of reducing risks from the harmful effects of climate change and maximizing any potential benefit opportunities.2 Climate cascade summarizes the cascading effects between human activities causing climate change and the impacts of climate change on community systems. Climate change refers to the long-term (usually at least 30 years) regional or even global average of temperature, humidity, and rainfall patterns over seasons, years, or decades.3 Human-induced climate change is resulting in global warming, the long-term heating of Earth's surface. Climate change drivers are greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide, in the atmosphere resulting from human activities over the industrial era, that are the principal drivers of many changes observed across the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere.4 Greenhouse gas emissions from building electricity, energy production, transportation, waste, and land use are considered climate change drivers of focus in the ICAP. Climate change hazard refers to changes in a physical process or event (hydro-meteorological or oceanographic variables or phenomena) driven or amplified by human induced climate change that can harm human health, livelihoods, or natural resources. Drought, extreme rainfall events, sea level rise, and tropical cyclones and storm surge are considered climate change hazards of focus in the ICAP. Climate change indicators are observed climate changes linked to rising levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere caused by human activities.5 Increasing air and sea surface temperature and ocean acidification are considered climate change indicators of focus in the ICAP. Climate mitigation refers to actions that reduce the flow of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, either by reducing sources of these gases or enhancing the sinks that accumulate and store these gases. Climate mitigation and "GHG reduction" are used interchangeably throughout this document:6 • GHG sources refers to processes and behaviors that emit GHG, such as burning fossil fuels for electricity and transportation. • GHG sinks refers to processes and behaviors that sequester and store GHG, such as forests, oceans, and soils. 2 NASA, Global Climate Change, https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/ 3NASA, Global Climate Change, https://climate.nasa.gov/global-warming-vs-climate-change/ 4 NASA, Global Climate Change, https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ 5 EPA, Global Climate Change Program, https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators 6 NASA, Global Climate Change, https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/ Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change irdsie ►r�iL Fere a Climate resilience is the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to hazardous events, trends, or disturbances related to climate change. Improving climate resilience involves assessing how climate change will create new, or alter current, climate-related risks, and taking steps to better cope with these risks.' Climate risk occurs from the interaction of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.8 Co-benefits refer to the potential for actions to achieve multiple positive impacts and reinforcing outcomes.9 Community systems are the diverse and interconnected physical, social, economic, ecological, cultural, and governance systems supporting the health and wellbeing of the people of Hawaii Island. Compounding hazards are hazards that are exacerbated by climate change indicators and hazards. Riverine flooding, landslides, wind storms, and coastal flooding and erosion are considered compounding hazards of focus in the !CAP. Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth's surface observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat- trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere.10 Groundwater-dependent ecosystems are ecosystems that are supported by groundwater. These places include springs and seeps, caves and karst systems, and deep-rooted plant communities (phreatophytes). In many cases, rivers, wetlands, and lakes are also included. Where groundwater meets the surface, unique communities of plants and animals flourish. A wide variety of rare, threatened, and endangered species call these places home." In Hawaii, groundwater-dependent ecosystems include fish ponds, coastal springs, anchialine pools, and nearshore ecosystems. Hazard mitigation is any sustainable action that reduces or eliminates long-term risk to people and property from future disasters.12 Intervention points refer to specific points where a climate cascade could be disrupted by an action to prevent cascading effects and negative impacts on community systems. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, https://www.c2es.org/content/climate-resilience- overview/#:-:text=Climate%20resil fence%20is%20the%20ability,better%20cope%20with%20these%20risks. 8 International Atomic Energy Authority, https://www.iea.org/reports/climate-resilience-policy-indicator/climate-hazard-assessment 9 Mayrhofer,J. P., &Gupta,J. (2016).The science and politics of co-benefits in climate policy. Environmental Science&Policy,57, 22-30.doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.11.005 10 NASA,Global Climate Change, ittps://climate.nasa.gov/giooal-warming-vs-climate-change/ 11 USDA Forest Service,2023. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems. https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/natural- resources/geology/groundwater/groundwater-dependent- ecosystems#:-:text=What%20are%20Groundwater%20Dependent%20Ecosystems,and%201akes%20are%20also%20included. 12 FEMA, Hazard Mitigation Assistance Grants, https://www.fema.gov/grants/mitigation#:-:text=%22Hazard%20mitigation%22%20is%20any%20sustainable,damage%2C%20recons truction%20and%2orepeated%20damage. KevTerms Xii Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t Oti�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change d► 'r iL RCP 8.5 is the future greenhouse gas emissions scenario with the highest level of emissions of the standard scenarios in use for climate change projections. It assumes no measures will be taken to reduce emissions from current trends. Risk is the potential for an unwanted outcome resulting from an event, as determined by the likelihood of the event and the associated consequences.13 Threat is a natural, technological, or human-caused occurrence, individual, entity, or action that has or indicates the potential to harm life, information, operations, the environment, and/or property (FEMA). Vulnerability refers to the degree to which a community is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC). 13 FEMA, https://emilms.fema.gov/is0870a/groups/22.html Kev Terms XIV Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to CI Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change #4 * aorp PLANNING PROCESS The Hawaii County Integrated Climate Action Plan (ICAP)was developed over a three year period. Key planning activities are shown in Figure 1. The County engaged multiple stakeholders in the planning process through the Climate Action Plan Working Group, County department working sessions, technical reviews, and a public review period. Key Planning Activities 2021 2022 2023 Greenhouse Gas Inventory Risk&Vulnerability Assessment Working Group Development&Facilitation ,,, , ■ Community Sentiment Survey ' L_ Cascade Framework I , Action&Implementation Strategy Development I I I , Interdepartmental Engagement Techni( Review Draft ICAP Public Review Finalize&Adopt ICAP Figure 1.Planning process for developing the Integrated Climate Action Plan Climate Action Plan Working Group In the summer of 2021, Hawaii County hosted three Climate Action workshops in Hilo and Kona. The County produced a Hawaii Island Climate Action simulation for the workshops. During the workshops, the County presented the proposed Climate Action Plan scope, goals, and development process and facilitated the simulation with the group. The County formed a Climate Action Plan Working Group with the workshop participants. The Working Group met monthly from July 2021 — December 2021. The group then met every 3 months from January— June 2022. The Working Group was re-convened to review the draft plan in 2023. The Working Group advised the County on the focus of the Plan. They also helped develop and distribute a Climate Change Community Sentiment Survey with the County. The high-level results and recommendations from the survey informed the identification of co-benefits for actions and the stakeholder engagement outlined in the Implementation section. For more information on the survey results, see Appendix C. Long-term climate action planning and implementation should include continued partnerships like those described in the Implementation section. Planning Process 1 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t � Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *•�i►4r* Fere a County Staff The County Climate Action Team hosted a series of interdepartmental meetings from October 2022 through January 2023 to review the outline and technical analysis of the ICAP with department directors and deputy directors. The Team then met one-on-one with the departments that are leads for the actions in the plan to review and amend plan actions. The actions in this document are the finalized actions approved by the departments. Technical Reviews The County Climate Action Team reached out to academic researchers focused on climate adaptation and mitigation in Hawaii to review the ICAP. The technical reviewers provided feedback on the scientific framework, analyses and references in the ICAP. The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) also provided technical feedback as part of the County's participation in the ICLEI Integrated Climate Action Planning Cohort. ruOliC I�tvier The draft ICAP opened for comment May 1, 2023 and closed for comment June 1, 2023. The draft was published using Konveio, an interactive website. Konveio has features that easily guide the community through the document with summaries, videos, links, and GIS. The ICAP received 247 comments and over 3,000 views. The County incorporated revisions addressing the public comments into the final plan. Planning Process 2 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t _ter Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change .rplfr�� Ere a VISION, GOALS, AND ALIGNMENT Hawaii Island has long held a reciprocal relationship between land and people. As an island community, we can tangibly experience the cascading effects of our actions on the people and places surrounding us. Island communities such as Hawaii Island are at the forefront of climate change, as we experience impacts such as sea level rise and coral bleaching. Our small population and island geography make us feel more deeply the cascading effects of any impact on the health and the land of the people. The ICAP is a first step by Hawaii County to address the causes and effects of climate change. The County has a dual role to play: reducing the County's contribution to global climate change; and building the resiliency of our programs, policies, and infrastructure to climate change. The actions outlined in the ICAP will help the County achieve the following vision and goals, in alignment with existing State and County priorities. Vision We ensure a just transition to a climate resilient island by addressing the causes and impacts of climate change through incorporating equitable climate mitigation and adaptation priorities into policies, programs, infrastructure, and decision making. coals O Improve County capacity to implement climate action. O Reduce the County's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions. O Increase the resilience of County infrastructure, assets, and services to climate change impacts. Alignment Several commitments at the State and County level have set mandated and non-mandated greenhouse gas emissions goals for select industries (Figure 2). Targets have been set for greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy standards, and transportation reform. However, clear and explicit goals codified at the County level are needed to emphasize the urgency and commitment this plan requires. To demonstrate the County's commitment to climate action, the County should codify climate mitigation and adaptation goals. This plan recommends that the County codify mitigation goals in alignment with State renewable energy goals, County renewable energy for transportation goals, and the County's zero waste resolution. This plan recommends that the County codify adaptation goals in alignment with the Climate Adaptation Priority Guidelines defined in the State Planning Act. 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Cascading effects result from interdependencies between natural and socioeconomic systems.14 The term "cascading effects" has been increasingly used to describe the network of impacts across various systems that are of greater magnitude than any individual element of network.15 The cascading effects of climate change represent extremely complex interactions between global climate change and local physical, ecological, social, and economic systems. The framework captures how what we do as communities causes climate change, which in turn impacts our same communities. Increased use of fossil fuels is causing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to rise. Greenhouse gases are causing global air and sea surface temperature to rise and oceans to become more acidic. These changes in temperature and ocean pH are the key indicators of climate change. They directly trigger climate hazards including sea level rise, drought, extreme rainfall events, and tropical cyclones. The impacts of those climate hazards can be heightened by compounding hazards such as landslides, wildfire, and flooding. Together, the impacts of these climate and compounding hazards cascade across multiple social, cultural, economic, ecological, and governance systems.16 A climate action framework was developed to describe these cascading effects of climate change and to identify intervention points where both climate mitigation and adaptation actions can be implemented by the County (Figure 4). Understanding the cascading impacts of climate change on human-environmental systems is a growing area of research.17 Better accounting of these interactions is needed to identify potential feedback loops. The cascading effects of climate change on infrastructure and social-ecological systems related to extreme rainfall events,18 sea level rise,19 wildfires and other disasters,20 wastewater systems,21 electrical systems,22 and fisheries and agriculture23 are some emerging topics of new research. 14 Lawrence,J., Blackett, P.,&Cradock-Henry, N.A.(2020). Cascading climate change impacts and implications. Climate Risk Management,29, 100234.doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100234 15 Schauwecker,S.,Gascon, E., Park, S., Ruiz-Villanueva,V., Schwarb, M.,Sempere-Torres, D., Rohrer, M. (2019).Anticipating cascading effects of extreme precipitation with pathway schemes-Three case studies from Europe. Environment International, 127, 291-304.doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.072 16 Lawrence,J., Blackett, P., &Cradock-Henry, N.A. (2020). Cascading climate change impacts and implications. Climate Risk Management, 29, 100234.doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100234 17 Cradock-Henry, N.A., Connolly,J., Blackett, P., &Lawrence,J. (2020). Elaborating a systems methodology for cascading climate change impacts and implications. Methods X, 7.doi:10.1016/j.mex.2020.100893 18 Schauwecker,et.al, (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.072 19 Yin,J.,Yu, D., Lin, N.,&Wilby, R. L. (2017). Evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding on emergency response spatial accessibility in Lower Manhattan, New York City.Journal of Hydrology,555,648-658. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydro1.2017.10.067 20 Duvat,V. K. E.,Volto, N.,Stahl, L., Moatty,A., Defossez, S., Desarthe,J., Pillet,V. (2021). Understanding interlinkages between long-term trajectory of exposure and vulnerability, path dependency and cascading impacts of disasters in Saint-Martin(Caribbean). Global Environmental Change,67, 102236.doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102236 21 Hughes,J., Cowper-Heays, K., Olesson, E., Bell, R., &Stroombergen,A. (2021). Impacts and implications of climate change on wastewater systems:A New Zealand perspective.Climate Risk Management, 31, 100262. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100262 22 McMahan, B.,&Gerlak,A. K. (2020). Climate risk assessment and cascading impacts: Risks and opportunities for an electrical utility in the U.S.Southwest. Climate Risk Management,29, 100240. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100240 23 Thiault, L., Mora, C., Cinner,J. E., Cheung,W.W. L., Graham, N.A. J.,Januchowski-Hartley, F.A.,Claudet,J. Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries. Science Advances,5(11),eaaw9976. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9976 Climate Action Framework 4 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to zat Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Ch oge 1��qh� Climate Action Framework Addressing the Cascading Effects of Climate Change Climate Community systems Change produce greenhouse Drivers gases which are the main drivers of climate change Climate Change Intervention points Indicators are where climate action can be taken Community Systems Climate physical, Change4 social, economic, cultural, Hazards native ecosystems, governance Community systems are impacted by climate change and compounding hazards Figure 4.Climate action framework Climate Action Framework 5 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to O Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 7*� �� The Natural Hazard Cascade of 1868 Hawaii Island is no stranger to cascading effects. On April 2, 1868, a 7.9-magnitude earthquake, the largest in recorded history for Hawaii Island, shook the island north of Pahala. The quake was preceded by hundreds of smaller tremors. This earthquake reactivated the Hilina Slump, which resulted in a tsunami that produced waves as high as 49 feet and killed 46 people. The quake also triggered numerous landslides, the largest of which was nearly 2 miles wide and as much as 30 feet thick, causing widespread damage and another 31 fatalities. Although not climate-related, this event exemplifies how cascading hazard events can affect people and property. Source: "The Great Ka`u Earthquake of 1868."Hawaiian Volcano Observatory.April 1, 1994 Climate Action Framework 6 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t / Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 7*� r CLIMATE CASCADES A climate cascade represents one component of the cascading effects and interactions of climate change. Using the climate action framework, five climate cascades were developed to address the three goals of the ICAP. All actions and plan implementation seek to address Goal 1, to increase the County capacity to address climate change. Actions in Cascades 1 and 2 address Goal 2, to reduce GHG emissions. Actions in Cascades 3, 4 and 5 address Goal 3 to increase resilience of County infrastructure and services to climate change impacts. • Climate Cascade 1 — Greenhouse Gas Emissions caused by human activities are the key drivers of human-induced climate change. This climate cascade establishes a baseline for greenhouse gas emissions for the Island of Hawaii from which to develop climate mitigation interventions to reduce Hawaii County contributions to global climate change. • Climate Cascade 2—Air and Sea Surface Temperature are directly influenced by greenhouse gas emissions. These climate change indicators have direct impacts on human and native ecosystem health. • Climate Cascade 3— Drought and Severe Rainfall Events are among the climate hazards resulting from increasing air and sea surface temperature and climate variability. Drought and severe rainfall impacts to community systems are exacerbated by the compounding hazards of wildfire, landslides, windstorms, and riverine flooding. • Climate Cascade 4— Sea Level Rise is a climate hazard with slowly emerging impacts on community systems, compounded by coastal and riverine flooding and landslides. • Climate Cascade 5—Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge are climate hazards with extreme impacts on community systems. A graphic and narratives were developed for each cascade based on the current state of knowledge and experience gleaned from global, regional, and local information and data. The ICAP analyzes exposure and risk associated with each climate cascade using a geospatial overlay of climate hazards on County assets and a social vulnerability analysis of the population. County actions for climate change mitigation and adaptation were identified for key intervention points within each climate cascade. Co-benefits of climate action were identified to highlight opportunities to build climate resilience action by action. A summary of the cascading effects is depicted in Figure 5. Key climate change drivers, indicators, climate hazards, and compounding hazards used to develop the climate cascades were identified from the County of Hawaii Hazard Mitigation Plan 2020, the Hawaii State Climate Summary, the 4th National Climate Assessment, and other relevant literature. A closer look at the climate hazards can be found in Appendix A. Community systems were defined as physical, social, economic, cultural, native ecosystem, and governance assets and services. County assets and services were identified within these community systems as the focus for action in this plan. Climate cascades are intended as a starting point in describing the complexities of climate change impacts in order to better anticipate feedback loops and avoid maladaptation. These cascades will be reviewed, revised, and expanded as new research becomes available and conditions change. 00 co AA co qR �w� ov cuR w m T4= T N-0 d N N V E U o '=5o E & a 2 C C oO d [O Z LU E E -g-.= E W rn E €a a Oy o a y I \ 0o d c m d ti m y E o r a-,7-,0 0 : co \ w w I to E 03.`° a, m 0 0 .— - <w s`1.) 2 E I I \ =o , -E,o a Li, . V., - 4; _ CAlf, .1' . ora ; d � y 0 O w j?i . : 0 ( ( lir 1 ,,,, 8_ .. 2 ...,_. 1i : !fft1 w COlit _ ,d tm . o a on E m� 7 42-. d NN iUy V fn2 I sgEIO> CS ts CD R E a) a.Ti R _ = O C� E � `a °'- _? �� °6 E �' 2 '� � E = O z E-e c E w '_ m a, . H u ! a I c a z• •.E a� y w E m x m o N 6t CC ww �n I `II� gw t 'd LL 7 CO N ~ (7 �' 'I Uy Vo cs c 2 a > \ , ,) i2 7 C.i 10 ' bEy CS m r. = U 3 h a m 0 N Ute ? _ �11. € I c g :R ',I, U m 3 y E_ E o Lu o R w w . !.- =›- t 2 ~¢ a 0 = 2a ti ?.= E c m g 0 U U 2 Z w m C 1 d m aEi H R Z D O.g E m ay Q - m . L a h o O a CD . Q a� I'M m . x m o L. i 0 O U ..- =C R a e 0 a iii co 2 I- CD CD roo d Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t =za- Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 7*� � 'IinrigfP cascar1c Exnnsure Analysis Exposure analysis is the process of identifying assets that may experience each hazard associated with a climate cascade. Exposure analysis for Climate Cascades 3, 4, and 5 is based on the climate hazards and compounding hazards associated with each climate cascade. For each of these climate cascades, County assets exposed to these multiple hazards were identified using geospatial mapping to determine: • Areas in Hawaii County where each hazard may occur (this mapping is specific to each analyzed climate cascade) • Locations of the County's assets (this mapping is the same for all analyzed climate cascades) Climate Cascade 1 does not include hazard exposure, so no analysis was conducted. Cascade 2 was limited by data availability. Exposure analysis was not conducted but could be in the future. The components of the exposure analysis are shown in Figure 6. Climate & Compounding Hazards rn a, • Wildfire co • Riverine Flooding a • Landslide • High Winds County Assets • Sea Level Rise—Chronic n • Sea Level Rise—Event-based • Structures • CLIMATE CASCADE • Coastal Flooding Roads CO • Bridges EXPOSURE • Riverine Flooding • Water/Wastewater U shoreline) by Asset • Parks • Lan• .,:.!-, rea e� • Hurricane—Storm Surge Is) • Hurricane —Extreme winds • Riverine Flooding N • Coastal Flooding • Sea Level Rise—Event-based • Landslide Figure 6.Exposure analysis components for Climate Cascades 3,4,and 5 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to / Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *rp�� Hazard Mapping Climate Cascades 3 and 4 are characterized by five hazards each, and Climate Cascade 5 is characterized by six hazards. The datasets used to map hazard areas for each cascade are listed in Table 1 and described in more detail in Appendix A. Table 1.Cascade exposure analysis:hazards analyzed by cascade CASCADE 3 CASCADE 4 CASCADE 5 Drought and Sea Level Tropical Cyclones Hazard Extreme Rainfall Rise and Storm Surge Drought(93-year drought trends) • Wildfire communities at risk rating (high) • Riverine flooding (FEMA FIRM NAE Zones) • • • High winds (Average wind speeds at 50m above ground: moderate(greater the 5 meters/second)and high (greater • than 8.5 meters/second)severity) Landslides(medium/high susceptibility) • • • Chronic coastal flooding with 3.2 feet of sea level rise (passive inundation only, SLRXA-3.2) • Event-based coastal flooding with 3.2 feet of sea level rise(projected future, 1%Annual Chance Coastal Flood • • Zone, 1%CFZ-3.2) Event-based coastal flooding (historical; FEMA DFIRM VNE Zone) • • Hurricane—Wind (Category 4 with peak gusts greater than 125 miles per hour.) • Hurricane—Storm surge (Category 4) • Total Number of Hazards 5 5 6 By mapping all relevant hazards, this analysis was able to identify the number of hazards with the potential to occur at any location in the County for each climate cascade. A given location might be susceptible to multiple hazards. An example of the cascade exposure levels for a cascade with five hazards is shown in Figure 7. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to /GI " Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change **� , Climate Cascade Exposure Levels 5 O 4 l4 Ca 3 0 ■ CD 2 E: • 1 0 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ (lb .1/4t ■Hazard' Hazard ■Hazard 3 ■Hazard 4 ■Hazard5 Figure 7.Example of cascade exposure levels Asset Mapping. Asset data was compiled from all County departments. This included County structures, water and wastewater lines, on-site disposal systems, roads, bridges, and parks, as well as proposed and planned capital improvement projects. Interviews were conducted with each County department to review existing County assets and existing departmental priorities for proposed and in progress projects. A map of asset locations was generated from the information collected. More details on assets and projects are available on the County Climate Cascade Exposure Tool. (Exposure Analysis The exposure analysis overlaid the hazard area mapping on top of the asset location map. This allowed assets to be tallied by number of potential hazards at the asset location for each climate cascade. County assets exposed to the greatest number of hazards could be candidates for interventions. The County Climate Cascade Exposure Tool can help County staff better understand climate-related hazards potentially impacting County-managed assets and projects. The Cascade Exposure Tool also contains the results of a risk analysis conducted based on the distribution of socially vulnerable populations. The description of the risk assessment methodology and results are provided in Appendix B. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t /CI Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change PepIntervention Points and Actions Intervention points were identified for each climate cascade. These are points where the cascading effects of climate change could be disrupted by a project or action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or impacts on community systems. An intervention early in the sequence that makes up a cascade is considered more effective as it can address multiple cascading effects and thereby enhance community resilience and save money, time, and effort. This ICAP focuses on actions that County departments can take to improve climate resilience based on areas of responsibility as listed in Table 2. For each cascade, actions were identified at each intervention point based on County assets exposed and population at risk. An estimate for the cost of each action is noted as follows: $ - action can be accomplished within the current County budget and staff $$ - action requires additional funding for consultants or studies $$$ - action requires major investment for infrastructure design and implementation Projects proposed or recently completed under the County's capital improvement program and Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan were reviewed for inclusion in this plan. Table 2.Hawaii County departments with primary responsibilities in the ICAP County Department Primary Area of ICAP Responsibility Civil Defense Disaster response Finance Financing for capital improvement, open spaces management Environmental Management Solid waste and wastewater systems Fire Department Emergency response Mass Transit Agency Public transportation Parks and Recreation Beach parks, senior centers, and sports centers Planning Land use and coastal zone management Public Works Roads, bridges,floodplain management, energy efficiency, County fleet maintenance, building and energy codes, and building permits Research and Development Emissions data and reporting, agriculture and tourism industry support, energy transformation, and grants Water Supply Water tanks, reservoirs, and water lines Individual actions were also included for every cascade after the County actions and co-benefits. These are actions that members of the community, homeowners, and businesses can take to contribute to climate action. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t / Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 7*� � Climate Action Co-Benefits Co-benefits refer to the potential for actions to achieve multiple positive impacts and reinforcing outcomes. The concept of co-benefits implies a `win—win' strategy where a single policy or action can address two or more goals.24 The term co-benefits is also referred to as "multiple benefits" or "synergies." Each action has co-benefits beyond impact on climate change. Table 3 describes the co- benefits that may come with climate actions. The evaluation of co-benefits for each action is a key activity in monitoring and evaluation (see the section on Plan Implementation). Table 3.Climate action co-benefits considered in evaluating climate actions Action , Primary Purpose Co-Benefits Actions that reduce greenhouse gas • Improved public health through reducing local co- g"o emissions through using technology that pollutants to improve air quality "�o does not burn materials, especially • Increased economic independence from international imported fossil fuels,and through reducing markets for fossil fuels Greenhouse Gas Decreased cost of livingthrough loweringelectricityand Reduction the amount of energy or fuel needed. g gas bills Actions that reduce cascading effects of I • Reduced disruptions to government operations and the climate change and increase the resilience economy of communities, infrastructure,and • Faster recovery from disaster events ecosystems to prepare and plan for, • Safer communities due to reduced loss of life and property Climate Risk absorb, recover from, and more damage Reduction successfully adapt to adverse events and • Reduced financial impact of climate change on individuals, changing conditions. communities,and society as a whole Actions that prioritize historically • Conserving native ecosystems that are fundamental to marginalized peoples and disproportionally cultural practices impacted communities in receiving support • Decreasing pollution and corresponding public health risks for community services at greatest risk to in historically marginalized and underserved communities Social-Cultural climate change, reduce barriers, and • Improving access to land and water for recreation, cultural Equity increase opportunities so all people can practice,and self-sufficient practices like farming I get help when they need it. • Reducing cost of living Actions that result in positive impacts on • Reducing air and water pollution the environment beyond mitigating or • Removing invasive species adapting to climate change. • Restoring ecosystems Environmental • Protecting soil to reduce erosion and nutrient loss Protection • Preserving native species and pollinating species Actions that result in positive impacts on ' • Job creation the economy. • Industry advancement • Workforce training • Reduced financial impact of climate change on Economic Resilience businesses and residents Actions that align priorities and investment I • General Plan riN toward climate risk reduction with existing • Multi-Modal Transportation Plan policies across County, State,and federal • Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan Plan Integration plans. • Integrated Solid Waste Plan 24 Mayrhofer,J.P.,&Gupta,J.(2016).The science and politics of co-benefits in climate policy.Environmental Science&Policy,57,22-30. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.11.005 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t /CI it•P Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change PepLimitations and Future Data Needs Framework: The climate action framework was developed to illustrate the cascading nature of climate change. The framework is intended to show Hawaii County's role in reducing our contribution to global climate change while preparing for the local effects. The cascading effects of climate change represent extremely complex interactions between global climate change and local physical, ecological, social, and economic systems. The framework captures how what we do as communities causes climate change, which in turn impacts our same communities. The framework simplifies this relationship and is intended to be improved over time as new knowledge, studies, and data emerge. Exposure and Data Availability: The climate cascade exposure analysis presents a limited view of the cascading effects of climate change, focusing on exposure associated with climate hazards and compounding hazards. Geospatial analysis of exposure is constrained by data availability. Greater investment in monitoring and analyzing climate hazards and impacts is needed to document observed impacts of climate change on community systems, especially native ecosystems. The analysis of overlaps among the various hazards used in the exposure analysis was limited by the following: • Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Greenhouse Gas Inventory was limited by data availability. Due to limited island-specific data, Ground and marine transportation, solid waste, and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and other land use)were calculated from state-level emissions based on de facto population. Future inventories should include more data specific to the island. Further analysis is needed to determine the contribution of industry- specific emissions. • Air and Sea Surface Temperature Change. No geospatial analysis of climate exposure was conducted for air and sea surface temperature change (Climate Cascade 2). Literature was reviewed to describe cascading effects. An assessment of exposure and vulnerability of parcels and County infrastructure to increased temperature is needed, including parcels on which the County provides community services (activity type, vulnerable populations (i.e., keiki, kupuna), number of people served) and facilities with high levels of technology use that may need extra cooling infrastructure. To accomplish this, the assessment should follow a similar structure to the analyses for Climate Cascades 3, 4, and 5. The County should gather datasets on air temperature on Hawaii Island and stack the datasets to determine the vulnerability of County assets and sites where services are provided to determine the effects of increased air and sea surface temperature. Notably, projected changes to air temperature are not measured just by air temperature data, but also by surface temperature, land cover type, and potential evapotranspiration. These variables will need to be included in the stacking process to accurately capture air temperature trends and potential solutions, such as planting more trees in an exposed area (not something that we could do in an area that already has vegetation). As part of this project, the County should partner with the University of Hawaii-Hilo to utilize the Hawaii Mesoscale Network (Mesonet) data to use data from its mesoscale network of climate stations across the state. The County should also partner with the Department of Land and Natural Resources to utilize the urban canopy tree viewer co- developed with the U.S. Forest Service. • Wildfire. Wildfire mapping differs from the other hazard mapping used in the exposure analysis as it does not show wildfire risk over the entire island, but only the risk in populated areas. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t /CI Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change Pep• Drought. Drought trends were based on data for the period 1920 to 20128. Incorporating the most current decade into the trend analysis is recommended to build on that dataset moving forward. The Hawaii Mesonet is being expanded to provide advanced weather and climate monitoring with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Hawai'i Commission on Water Resources Management, and others. The County should actively partner with the Hawaii Commission on Water Resources Management and DLNR Department of Forestry and Wildlife on drought projections and management. • Sea Level Rise. The Sea Level Rise Exposure Area with 3.2 feet of sea level rise (SLRXA-3.2) is the best available projection for the end of the century available at this time. Local projections from NOAA point to closer to 4 ft of SLR by 2100 in an Intermediate scenario. In addition, SLRXA-3.2 for Hawaii Island is based solely on passive inundation. New wave modeling with sea level rise conducted by the University of Hawaii is anticipated over the next 5 years. • Extreme Rainfall Events. Riverine flood zones (FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) A/AE zones), mapped based on modeling historical floods, were used as a proxy for extreme rainfall events. In a changing climate, extreme rainfall events will not be confined to these zones. Further, riverine flood zones do not overlap with coastal flood zones (FEMA FIRM V/VE zones). This results in an underestimation of the hazard risk in areas where a river meets the sea. Finally, the riverine flood zones have not been mapped everywhere in the County, creating gaps in the data, especially in Hamakua, and therefore underestimating the number of overlapping climate hazards. • Coastal Flooding and Erosion with Sea level Rise. For Hawaii Island, coastal flooding with sea level rise was modeled only for passive inundation, with the highest sea level rise scenario at 3.2 feet by 2100. Without considering coastal erosion and wave runup with sea level rise, the Sea Level Rise Exposure Area with 3.2 feet of sea level rise (SLRXA-3.2) for Hawaii Island underestimates the total land area exposed by 35 to 54 percent, depending on location and sea level rise scenario.25 Shoreline change rate studies are being conducted by the University of Hawaii for two pilot sites. • Landslides. Geological studies are needed to better understand the conditions for cliff erosion and failure, especially along the Hamakua coast. • Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge. Tropical cyclones may make landfall anywhere on Hawaii Island or just come near enough to cause storm surge and high winds. A Category 4 tropical cyclone, modeled to make landfall in Kona and travel northeast, was used in the cascade exposure analysis. Overall, exposure to climate hazards in Cascade 5 should be considered island wide. Focus on Hazards: The cascade exposure and risk analyses completed for this plan focus on climate change related hazards and social vulnerability. A more complete analysis would need to include more detailed data and socioeconomic and environmental indicators. Future cascades should include more detailed analyses of critical infrastructure and hubs beyond County assets, environmental pollution, and historical marginalization. 25 Anderson,T. R., Fletcher,C. H., Barbee, M. M., Romine, B. M., Lemmo,S.,&Delevaux,J. M. S. (2018). Modeling multiple sea level rise stresses reveals up to twice the land at risk compared to strictly passive flooding methods. Scientific reports,8(1), 14484. d o i:10.1038/s41598-018-32658-x Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t / Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change "err, Vulnerability Vulnerability Analysis: This analysis was limited to the variables considered and does not fully capture the complex, multidimensional aspects of social vulnerability, such as social networks, self- sufficiency, and neighborhood conditions. These variables are also subjective to different contexts and cultures. What is considered "vulnerable" to some may be a strength or may be unimportant to others. Census data is limited by time lags, spatial scale, and missing or inaccurate information, specifically from hard-to-reach populations such as rural communities and non-English speakers. A more complete analysis would need to include a more comprehensive set of factors and qualitative, place-based community engagement and research to supplement the data and better define "social vulnerability" for communities on Hawaii Island. A future analysis should also cross-reference the EPA's Environmental Justice Screening and Mapping Tool or other such tools to include the impact of historic marginalization and disproportionate effects from pollution or other environmental hazards. Justice40 communities, communities that are disadvantaged according to Justice40 Initiative criteria in the U.S. and its territories, should be highlighted in future mapping efforts. Invasive Species: Invasive species data was not included in the exposure analysis or greenhouse gas inventory. Future analysis of greenhouse emissions and hazard exposure should include analyses of the impact of invasive species. The County should partner with federal and state agencies and local non-profits to incorporate existing data of land cover type into emissions calculations and land use policy. Invasive species data should also be incorporated into hazard analyses. For example, invasive trees such as albizia and eucalyptus are prone to falling and damaging infrastructure during storms. Invasive grasses can enhance wildfire vulnerability. Invasive ungulates, such as wild goats, can cause damage to ecosystems through deforestation, increasing vulnerability to wildfires and decreasing carbon sequestration. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change lir*��'y►r�� CLIMATE CASCADE I: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Climate Cascade 1 focuses on the primary drivers of climate change - anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) - and the community systems on Hawaii Island that emit GHGs (Figure 8). This section describes and evaluates this climate cascade and identifies intervention points for County actions and the potential co-benefits of such actions. The County of Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Inventory, summarizing island-wide emission sources and sinks, provides a baseline for the intervention points and informs the cascade narrative. Intervention points for County actions are identified along with climate co-benefits. Cascade 1: Greenhouse Gas Emissions COMMUNITY SYSTEMS building electricity&energy production transportation waste land use housing fossil fuels mass transit solid waste deforestation family farms schools on-site energy commutes wastewater production development ranching recreational facilities trucking land management industrial farming commercial facilities aviation invasive species marine transportation 1A 1B 1C 1D J I greenhouse gas emissions Figure 8.Climate Cascade 1.Greenhouse gas emissions Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 17 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 0�- Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�Ppr&_ Cascade Narrative Human activities are increasing greenhouse gas emissions globally to levels that are changing the climate and the Earth's ecosystem. The natural carbon cycle includes sources that emit GHGs and sinks that sequester GHGs. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases. The "greenhouse gas effect" occurs when GHGs trap heat by impeding the release of infrared light waves back into the atmosphere. Before 1850, global sources and sinks maintained a stable cycle of GHGs and therefore stable temperature patterns. Since 1850, GHGs have been released at unprecedented levels, creating today's climate crisis. In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that anthropogenic (human-originated) emissions are the cause of global climate change.26 In 2017, Hawaii County produced 2,779,683 metric tons of GHGs.27 As of 2023, GHG sources in Hawaii County include emissions from burning of fossil fuels and biofuels for energy and transportation and from decomposition of organic and inorganic waste. GHGs are emitted to support community systems such as electricity, transportation, waste, and industries from agriculture to healthcare to tourism. Simultaneously, the cycle of land development and underdevelopment has led to deforestation and biodiversity loss, decreasing natural carbon sinks on Hawaii Island. The early 20th century expansion of plantation and cattle industries followed by the contraction of farming and ranching in the 21st century were major drivers of these impacts. Deforestation and biodiversity loss will continue without increased investment in appropriately managing our open spaces. As the effects of climate change emerge, so does the urgency to understand how to reduce emissions and ensure equity while pursuing solutions. While Hawaii County's contribution to global emissions may be small by proportion, it's essential that we take responsibility for our contribution to global climate change and reduce our sources of emissions alongside the rest of the world. Increasing use of fossil fuels to generate electricity for commercial, industrial, and residential activity emits increasing amounts of greenhouse gases. Hawaii Island has a long history of utilizing renewable energy. In 1890, Hilo was the site of one of the first hydropower projects in the state.28 Hawai'i Island also has the state's only geothermal plant, Puna Geothermal Ventures, founded in 1993.29 In 2022, Hawaiian Electric has made a commitment to cut its 26 IPCC(2021)Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ito the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Masson-Delmotte,V., P.Zhai,A. Pirani, S.L. Connors,C. Peen, S. Berger, N. Caud,Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy,J.B.R. Matthews,T.K. Maycock,T.Waterfield,O.Yelekgi, R.Yu, and B.Zhou(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, In press, doi:10.101719 7 8100915789o. 27 County of Hawaii Department of Research and Development. (2021). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2017.County of Hawai`i.https://www.hawaiicounty.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/304504/637834584810900000. Note: Emissions calculations do not include emissions from volcanic eruptions,although these emissions amplify the impacts of human-caused emissions on health. 28 Hawaiian Electric. (2023). https://hawaiiainelectric.com 29 Hawaii Energy Facts&Figures(2020).Hawaii State Energy Office. https://energy.hawaii.gov/wp- content/uploads/2020/11/HSEO_FactsAndFigures-2020.pdf Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 18 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to _ter Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *o ��► 'y►r�� — carbon emissions by 70 percent by 2030. Current renewable energy sources on-island include solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and biofuels. \ s r _ • West`' a, i Cf.�i�,,e lr,�� v DMV ca ,4...-',.. r . 5 -- a -_—, � ' '''.--4-6-,,d1-4- ..—.a 1 -'�,`° as�r�iy tat – — .-,. illllJ f I ®i- _. —r. - –e ., II I ax :' w x+► �a , ,,-—4: hiI',�1��h l i _:;t l X641. s ipli \' -,�...�g� ,;.,.,,A- - ...:4"... .; f, or r f. Solar-paneled parking lot in the West Hawaii Civic Center On and off-grid energy production and electricity use is the second-largest source of emissions on Hawaii Island, with a total of 959,900 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) released per year.30 Energy production provides electricity, air conditioning, and heat that support commercial, industrial, and residential activity. The population of Hawaii County is projected to increase a little over 1 percent annually between now and 2045.31 As the population grows, additional building infrastructure and electricity will be necessary for housing and social services such as schools, grocery stores, and medical care. The rise in technology use places an additional burden on electricity needs, as devices such as computers, televisions, and cellphones require immense amounts of electricity to run. Despite potential increase in energy efficiency from digitalization, the greenhouse gas emissions and toxic waste associated with usage and disposal of technologies outweigh the reduction in greenhouse gas 3°County of Hawaii Department of Research and Development. (2021). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2017.County of Hawaii.https://www.hawaiicounty.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/304504/637834584810900000 31 State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development,and Tourism. (2018). Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawaii to 2045. https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/2045-long-range- forecast/2045-long-range-forecast.pdf Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 19 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change leoFA * emissions from energy efficiency.32 Increased infrastructure will augment energy demand and the resulting carbon footprint. On the state level, Hawaii homes use 40 percent less electricity on average than the national average.33 However, the State of Hawaii has the highest energy cost of any state in the United States, at 42.37 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), compared to the national average of 12.52 cents.34 These high prices partially stem from the state's dependence on energy importation. Foreign oil generates 60 percent of the state's energy, and Hawaii uses 12 times more energy than is produced in-state. Pricing structures are dependent on the cost of foreign oil, even for renewable energy generation. High prices on Hawaii Island are also impacted by fuel costs, low customer density, and geographic isolation. In 2022, Hawaii Island's electric grid was 50.1 percent dependent on foreign oil when all its renewable power plants were running.35 However, the grid does not account for propane use, meaning Hawaii Island is more dependent on foreign fuel than reflected by the grid. Therefore, operations cost is higher for businesses in Hawaii, even when using less energy than comparable businesses on the continent. In the face of international oil shortages or economic disruptions, the dependence on foreign oil will continue to increase the costs of living and operating businesses on the island. Hawaii residents have already experienced increased cost of electricity as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. The County government can reduce its footprint by increasing the percentage of renewable fuel used to power County buildings and infrastructure, reducing vehicle miles traveled, and establishing more energy efficient buildings. Inefficient energy use in existing and new buildings emits increasing amounts of greenhouse gases. Building energy efficiency refers to how effectively infrastructure uses energy generated. Building design determines energy efficiency. For example, buildings that are designed with natural cooling systems (such as windows and doors that allow for cross-ventilation or siding that better reflects sunlight) require fewer fans or small air conditioning units. Upgrading appliances such as light bulbs, refrigerators, and washing machines also reduces electricity usage. New building development inevitably increases greenhouse gas emissions by adding an additional load on or off grid. New development also includes embodied emissions from harvesting, transportation, and construction of materials. However, buildings that are developed efficiently emit less than those that are not. Retrofitting older buildings can also decrease electricity use and therefore greenhouse gas emissions. This is one of the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions, as improving energy standards costs less than 1 cent per kWh saved.36 County facilities can be retrofitted to be more efficient using solar panels in areas with higher solar radiance (Figure 9). 'Steffen Lange,Johanna Pohl,Tilman Santarius(2020)Digitalization and energy consumption. Does ICT reduce energy demand?, Ecological Economics,Volume 176, 106760, ISSN 0921-8009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106760. 33 Hawaii State Energy Profile. U.S. Energy Information Administration. ittps://www.eia.gov/state/print.php?sid=HI. 1 Nov.2022. 3a Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a. 1 Mar.2023. 35 Hawaii State Energy Profile. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.pov/state/print.php?sid=Hl. 1 Nov.2022. 36 Hawaii Energy Facts&Figures(2020). Hawaii State Energy Office. https://energy.hawaii.gov/wp- content/uploads/2020/11/HSEO_FactsAndFigures-2020.pdf Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20 utititiSSSlti. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to OW qualk Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *� 6V 99 Q A 9 D n: a It 9 Solar Radiance 130- 160 X160.1 - 175 9 ""' 175.1- 190 190.1 -205 205.1-220 220.1 -235 235.1 -250 250.1 -265 MN 265.1 -280 I♦280.1 -300 fi County Buildings & Solar Potential This map shows the location of County buildings "1,000 sq. ft 0 5 10 20 Kilometers inventoried for potential energy retrofits. The base map shows I ' ' ' I ' ' ' I solar radiance (calories per sq. centimeter per day). The asterisk * I denotes ideal solar energy potential for photovoltaics. 0 5 10 20 Miles Credits:Developed by Research and Development using DBEDT Energy :fir 11i Division Radiance Data.Projected Hawaii State Plane Zone 1 UTM. c v' Created 11th of April,2023 I Scale: 1:715,000 Figure 9.Locations of County buildings for potential energy retrofits Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 21 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to •olgr Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change to/PpO� Increasing ground, air, and marine transportation for commercial, industrial, and residential activity emits increasing greenhouse gases. Transportation is a key facet of residential, commercial, and industrial activity. Transportation is the largest source of emissions for Hawaii County, with a total of 1,742,191 MTCO2e released per year. In Hawaii, transportation emissions are generated from ground, air, and marine transportation. Ground transportation contributes 16.8 percent of emissions annually on Hawaii Island.37 Ground transportation includes individual and public vehicles used by residents and visitors for all purposes from daily life to construction, trucking, and agriculture. The visitor industry adds to the use of cars on the island. Because of the size and rural nature of our island, visitors often rent cars and drive to "hot spot" attractions around the island.38 With increasing population and commercial activity, ground transportation emissions increased 17.31 percent from 2015 to 2017 and are expected to continue to increase.39 More people will be commuting and recreating, and more businesses will need to transport goods around the island to service them. On Hawaii Island, 71.4 percent of workers rely on individual modes of transportation. In Hawaii, the cost of gas is higher than any state except Alaska and is almost double the cost of states with the cheapest gas. The Ulupono Initiative estimates that the public costs of the vehicle economy, including roadway and bridge maintenance and public transportation, are around $15,000 per taxpayer with an additional $8,100 annual cost per vehicle. Therefore, 71.4 percent of workers are paying at least $8,100 per year to cover their transportation needs before taxes.40 Forty-eight percent of people on Hawaii Island are living below the ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) threshold.41 The annual cost of vehicle ownership is 33 percent of the annual total income of an ALICE-qualified single adult households. Airline transportation emissions are the dominant source of transportation emissions, accounting for 54 percent of total annual emissions. Airline emissions include all flights that originate from Hawaii Island. Airline travel is an essential part of residential, commercial, and visitor industry activity on island. Interisland commutes are a standard part of many industries, including construction. Airlines are also an essential means of importing goods to the island. Increasing population and commercial activity augment the need for flights and imported goods, so airline emissions are expected to increase. 37 County of Hawaii Department of Research and Development(2021). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2017.County of Hawaii.https://www.hawaiicounty.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/304504/637834584810900000 38 Hawaii Tourism Authority(2021). "Hawai`i Island Destination Management Action Plan." https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7040/hta-hawaii-island-action-plan.pdf 38 County of Hawaii Department of Research and Development. (2021). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2017.County of Hawaii.https://www.hawaiicounty.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/304504/637834584810900000 4o Ulupono Initiative. (2022). The Costs of the Vehicle Economy in Hawaii. https://ulupono.com/project-list/the-costs-of-the-vehicle- economy-in-hawaii/ 41 ALICE Threshold,2007-2018.American Community Survey,2007-2018. Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 22 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 'Or ��. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��Y►1r Increasing waste and wastewater production from commercial, industrial, and residential activity emits increasing amounts of greenhouse gases. Waste emissions account for 8.79 percent of Hawaii Island emissions.42 Hawaii County collected 203,872 tons of waste in its landfill in 2022. Solid waste produces emissions through the process of decomposition, which releases nitrogen gases and methane. The process of transporting waste to transfer stations and from transfer stations to the landfill produces additional emissions. Waste can be diverted from the landfill or incinerator by reducing, reusing, recycling, or composting waste. Wastewater (sewage) produces emissions during treatment processes, including nitrification and denitrification. Managing waste is especially important for an island community, which has limited land for waste disposal and watersheds that are easily polluted. Residential, commercial, and industrial activity add to waste production on the island through materials used in construction, agriculture, and the visitor industry. Without finding ways to repurpose and reduce waste, waste production will continue to grow as population expands and economic activity increases. Historical deforestation and degradation of native ecosystems and open spaces reduce carbon sinks. Hawaii Island forests are the largest source of carbon sequestration in the state.43 Pre-Western- contact, native habitat made up 85 percent of Hawaii's landscape. Post-contact, it fell to a little more than 40 percent of Hawaii's landscape.44 Most deforestation in Hawaii occurred in the late 1800s and early 1900s. Recent analysis indicates that forest cover is increasing.45 As forest or shrubland is repurposed for commercial and residential activities, ranching, and agriculture, natural carbon sinks and vital cultural resources vanish. Additionally, land management practices, such as outplanting non-native species, have further reduced the prevalence of native ecosystems.46 Forests are also essential pieces of the watershed. Forested lands at higher elevation catch and collect water that then travels down to lower elevation zones, providing fresh water from mauka to makai. Deforestation and degradation of native forests can decrease the availability of fresh water, affecting potable water supply, agriculture, and ecosystem health. Forest composition is changing due to invasive trees and shrubs47 which decreases groundwater recharge.48 Improved watershed management is needed to improve groundwater recharge and protect drinking water.49 Declines in 42 County of Hawaii Department of Research and Development.(2021). Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for 2017.County of Hawai`i.nups.,,hoohavva icounty.gov/home/showpublisheddocument/304504/637834584810900000 43 Hawaii State Department of Health (2021).Hawaii Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report for 2017. https://health.hawaii.gov/cab/files/2021/04/2017-Inventory_Final-Report_April-2021.pdf 44 Gon,S.M.;Tom, S.L.; Woodside, U.Aina Momona, Honua Au Loli—Productive Lands,Changing World: Using the Hawaiian Footprint to Inform Biocultural Restoration and Future Sustainability in Hawaii.Sustainability 2018, 10, 3420. 45 Lucas, M. (2017). Spatially quantifying and attributing 17 years of vegetation and land cover transitions across Hawaii. MSc Thesis. University of Hawaii at Manoa as A.C. Medeiros, E. I.von Allmen, C. G.Chimera.(2014). "Dry Forest Restoration and Unassisted Native Tree Seedling Recruitment at Auwahi, Maui,"Pacific Science,68(1), 33-45. Weller,S.G., Cabin, R.J., Lorence, D.H., Perlman,S.,Wood, K., Flynn,T. and Sakai,A.K. (2011).Alien plant invasions, introduced ungulates,and alternative states in a mesic forest in Hawaii. Restoration Ecology, 19(5), pp.671-680. 45 Kagawa,A., Sack, L., Duarte, K.E. and James,S. (2009). Hawaiian native forest conserves water relative to timber plantation: species and stand traits influence water use. Ecological Applications, 19(6), pp.1429-1443. 45 Bremer, L.L., DeMaagd, N.,Wada,C.A.and Burnett, K.M. (2021). Priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge and drinking water protection:A case study from Hawaii Island. Journal of Environmental Management,286, p.111622. ulimr greenhouse Gas Emissions 23 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change itFA * forest cover have also been found to increase fecal bacteria in Hawaii Island soil and nearby streams, compromising the health of the ecosystems dependent on affected watersheds.50 Urban soils on Hawaii Island are at most risk for potentially damaging fecal indicator bacteria and the staph bacteria MRSA.51 Moreover, urban runoff carried by polluted water upstream impacts the health of coral reefs, increasing coral bleaching and reducing coral spawning and fish nurseries.52 Reduction in fresh water and the proliferation of invasive species contribute to biodiversity loss.53 Over 90 percent of the species in Hawaii are found nowhere else in the world.54 Approximately half the species that have gone extinct in the world are island species, and over one-third of the plant species on Hawaii Island are categorized as endangered or threatened by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Invasive species, such as coqui frogs, gorse, and albizia, reduce the ability of native ecosystems to support biomass and sequester carbon. Native species also increase the resilience of watersheds to extreme precipitation and warming temperatures.55 The effect of urban runoff on groundwater discharge also feeds the growth of invasive algae species while decreasing the prevalence of native algae species, affecting the health of coastal waters.56 On Hawaii Island, there have already been extensive efforts to combat the reduction of`ohi`a and nene species. However, not all native plants and animals have been able to survive the impacts of invasive species and biodiversity loss. Native species carry immense cultural significance. `Ahu`ula feather capes were traditionally made from feathers of birds, some of which are now endangered like `i`iwi.57 `Uala has long been a staple food. Already, the `uala season in Maui has been affected by decreases in annual precipitation associated with climate change, as the amount of precipitation changes the zones in which `uala can be grown.58 Traditional agriculture is a crucial piece of culture and food security in Hawaii. Continued deforestation will only decrease the prevalence of native species. Kumu Hula Pua Kanahele said, "If we cut down the forests, we cut down ourselves." 59 5°Strauch,A.M.; MacKenzie, R.A.; Bruland, G.L.;Tingley, R.; Giardina, C.P. (2014).Climate Change and Land Use Drivers of Fecal Bacteria in Tropical Hawaiian Rivers. J.Environ. Qual.2014, 43, 1475 51 Tyler Gerken,Tracy N.Wiegner, Louise M. Economy.(2022)."A comparison of soil Staphylococcus aureus and fecal indicator bacteria concentrations across land uses in a Hawaiian watershed."Journal of Environmental Quality, 10.1002/jeq2.20380,51,5, (916-929). sz Stender,Y.;Jokiel, P.L.; Rodgers, K.S.(2014)."Thirty Years of Coral Reef Change in Relation to Coastal Construction and Increased Sedimentation at Pelekane Bay, Hawai'i."PeerJ 2014, 2,e300. 53 Barton, K.E.,Westerband,A., Ostertag, R., Stacy, E.,Winter, K., Drake, D.R., Fortini, L.B., Litton, C.M., Cordell,S., Krushelnycky, P. and Kawelo, K.(2021). Hawaii forest review:synthesizing the ecology,evolution,and conservation of a model system. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, 52, p.125631. 54 Timmons, G.and Gon III, S. (2016)The Last Stand:The Vanishing Hawaiian Forest.The Nature Conservancy of Hawaii. https://www.nature.org/media/hawaii/last_stand_web_Io.pdf ss Strauch,A.M., Giardina, C.P., MacKenzie, R.A.et al. (2017). Modeled Effects of Climate Change and Plant Invasion on Watershed Function Across a Steep Tropical Rainfall Gradient. Ecosystems 20,583-600 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0038-3 5s Dulai, H., C. M.Smith, D.W.Amato,V.Gibson,and L. L. Bremer. (2021). Risk to native marine macroalgae from land-use and climate change-related modifications to groundwater discharge in Hawaii. Limnol. Oceanogr.Lett. 8: 141–153. d o i:10.1002/1 o 12.102 32 57 Mallon,S., Kanawa, R.T.,Collinge, R., Balram, N., Hutton, G., Carkeek,T.W., &Kapeliela, K. (2017).The`ahu'ula and mahiole of Kalani 'Opu'u:A journey of chiefly adornments.Tuhinga,4. Ss Gon SM,Tom SL,Woodside U. `Aina Momona, Honua Au Loli—Productive Lands,Changing World: Using the Hawaiian Footprint to Inform Biocultural Restoration and Future Sustainability in Hawaii. Sustainability.2018; 10(10):3420. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103420 59 Timmons, G.and Gon III, S. (2003). The Last Stand:The Vanishing Hawaiian Forest.The Nature Conservancy of Hawai'i. https://www.nature.org/media/hawaii/Iast_stand_web_Io.pdf Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 24 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Greenhouse Gas Inventor Sources of emissions for Hawaii County are documented by the County of Hawaii 2017 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory. This inventory informs key intervention points; helps identify and prioritize sector- specific carbon mitigation and reduction strategies, and aids as a benchmark to gauge progress. Data for this report was collected from seven GHG-producing sectors made up of 42 sources, for the years 2005, 2015, and 2017 (Figure 10). These sectors and sources correspond with the State's GHG inventory, which was developed in accordance with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories. Sector Emission Totals by Year 0 1.5 III 2 2 CU rs' 0 1 1.1 H 0.5 . ■ I ■ _ ■ i CU Transportation Commercial Industrial Energy Residential rAFOLi Water and Solid Waste 2 &Mobile Energy Energy Wastewater Sources -O. AFOLU=Agriculture,Forestry,and Other Land Use ■2005 ■2015 ■20' Figure 10.Hawaii County sector overview of MTCO2e emissions for years 2005,2015,and 2017 The County of Hawaii GHG Inventory is guided by the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories and estimates GHG emissions that occur in the County's jurisdiction encompassing the entire island of Hawaii. The Global Protocol is a carbon emissions accounting and reporting standard for cities and municipalities developed by the World Resources Institute, C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, and the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives Local Governments for Sustainability. In 2017, overall emissions had decreased by 23 percent since 2005. The Transportation and Mobile Sources sector remained relatively stagnant over the years and remained the largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Notably, Aviation accounted for 51 percent of total transportation emissions, compared to 32 percent from On-Road Motor Gasoline. The second largest contributor was Commercial Energy, but emissions from this sector decreased by approximately half between 2005 and 2017. The Residential Energy sector was the third largest contributing sector in 2005, but emissions from residential energy steadily declined due to -28 percent increase in renewable energy capacity. By Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 25 .� Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to \a. ��i Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�► 'y►r�� r - 2017, Solid Waste became the third largest source of emissions. Volcanic emissions are not included in this inventory. Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 26 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Intervention Points and Actions Actions are associated with four intervention points (1A— 1 D)within the greenhouse gas emissions cascade (Figure 8). Entities responsible for implementing these actions are mostly County departments but also include the private sector and individuals. Lead County departments for this cascade are as follows: • Research and Development Department (R&D) • Planning Department (DP) • Department of Human Resources (HR) • Department of Public Works (DPW) • Department of Finance (DF) • Department of Parks and Recreation (DPR) • Mass Transit Agency (MTA) • Department of Environmental Management (DEM) 1A. Energy and Electricity Use Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under seven strategies, with a total of thirty-four actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 1A1. Develop energy benchmarking standards for Hawaii County buildings Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 1A1.1 Aggregate all County meter data to create a R&D $ 2023 • baseline portfolio in Energy Star Establish an online platform to streamline R&D, 1A1.2 gathering and reporting of monthly County DPW, DF $ 2023 • meter data i 1A1.3 Create an energy benchmarking dashboard R&D $ 2024 • and update monthly 1A1.4 Publish an annual report on County energy use R&D $ 2025 • and energy efficiency improvements Hire or contract a certified energy manager to 1A1.5 manage Energy Star portfolio and building DPW $ 2025 • energy contracts 1A1.6 Develop an Energy Management Plan for DPW $$ 2025 • County owned facilities 1A1.7 Purchase an Energy Management System for DPW $$ 2025 • County buildings i Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 27 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to � � Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change rsoutttl �►r�� 1A2. Transition Hawaii County buildings to net zero emissions Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Screen all capital improvement projects(CIP) 1A2 1 and maintenance projects for eligibility for DF, DP $ 2024 • energy rebates as part of the CIP project proposal checklist. r t — Create a list of eligible rebates and specs R&D $ 2023 • necessary for rebate eligibility Conduct a cost-benefit analysis to determine 1A2.2 the benefit of establishing an energy projects DF $ 2023 • revolving fund to utilize rebates and electricity savings for future energy investments. 1A2.3 Capture methane from County facilities to DEM $$$ 2025 • replace and reduce propane sources r * — Conduct a feasibility assessment 1A2.4 Apply for Energy Efficiency and Conservation R&D $ 2023 • Block Grants annually. 1A3. Implement renewable and energy efficient purchasing policies Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Establish an energy efficiency standard 1A3.1 checklist for all new County equipment and DF, R&D $ building purchases — Create a cost-benefit analysis and specifications list that can be used by depts. to determine if there is a cost-appropriate energy efficient 2024 • option for County equipment and building purchases Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 28 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to V� � Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *.4'y►r0 1A4. Inventory greenhouse gas emissions at the municipal and County level 1.11/111111. Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Continue to publish a municipal greenhouse gas 1A4.1 inventory for County buildings, transportation, R&D $ 2024 • waste, wastewater, and land use. 1A4.2 Publish a county-wide greenhouse gas R&D $ 2024 • inventory every 3 years. 1A4.3 Develop an embodied carbon baseline for R&D $ 2024 • County buildings,transportation, and waste. 1A5. Revise building and energy codes to incentivize energy efficiency measures for buildings, electric vehicle (EV) use, low-cost sustainable materials, and energy efficiency standards Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Amend Chapter 5 of the Hawaii County Code 1A5.1 to adopt the 2021 IECC energy code with DPW $ 2024 • modifications specific to Hawaii County. Create a dependable permitting system by 1A5.2 identifying and addressing inefficiencies in DPW $ 2023 • County permitting process. 1A5.3 Incentivize developments that align with County DPW $ 2026 • sustainability goals and plans. — Partner with on-island developers to identify ways to offset development costs associated with green infrastructure and promote environmentally friendly, locally produced building materials Amend Chapter 25 of the Hawaii County Code 1A5.4 to require all public and private parking lots to Council, $ 2023 • maintain a 25% parking stall minimum to be PD EV-charger ready by 2035. Conduct a study to determine financial impact 1A5.5 of waiving all permitting and review fees for DPW $$ 2026 • development projects that have a minimum LEED certified credential or similar credential. Pilot low-emissions landscaping equipment and 1A5.6 landscaping practices to determine DPW $ 2025 • effectiveness of equipment and practices. — Identify on-island partner organizations that can guide pilots Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 29 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to IOCI�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�Pt1►144p 1A6. Support residents and businesses in producing environmentally friendly on-site energy and implementing energy efficient cooling technologies Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Expand outreach for community rebate 1A6.1 incentives by pursuing more public-private R&D $ 2023 • partnerships with Hawaii Energy Advocate to the PUC in support of renewable 1A6.2 energy sources and social equity in regard to R&D $ 2023 • rates, grid planning, and energy project siting Create educational workshops and an online- web1A6.3 series with partners to increase awareness R&D $ 2023 • of and access to rebates, tax credits, and energy conservation technology. Release grants to encourage development and 1A6.4 implementation of new on-site energy R&D $$ 2024 • construction and energy efficiency measures on island 1A6.5 Conduct a study to evaluate the environmental R&D $ 2024 • impact of hydrogen energy production on-island. 1A7. Reduce the energy cost of the municipal water supply Ii+(%ffl411 1111,11 Ji/��11111 1 rf'f `?Ill i�(l�i IJ /�1 [fi iiir ?%i YO 'I (dye Nkldr ri i1lllijl(,.. tVyddddddddadd?,�J,.< � Jl. Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 1A7.1 Replace old pumps with higher efficiency pumps DWS $$ 2023 • for energy savings. — Prioritize based on payback period analysis 1A7.2 Install new Hydro-turbine at Waimea Water DWS $$ 2024 • Treatment Plant. 1A7.3 Pursue additional renewable energy projects. DWS $$ 2025 • 1A7.4 Install power factor correction equipment at DWS $$ 2024 • large facilities to increase power factor. I 1A7.5 Conduct energy study to establish baseline and DWS $ 2023 • detail power and energy savings opportunities. 1A7.6 Continue to optimize operations to reduce DWS $ 2023 • power demand and energy use. Continue to purchase and utilize leak detection 1A7.7 equipment to reduce water leaks in water DWS $ 2023 • transmission systems. Reducing water loss will reduce DWS energy use. Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 30 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►rV� Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs — Continue partnership with Hawaii Energy to help fund rebate leak detection equipment purchases Continue to conduct and improve public outreach on water conservation, including drought-resistant landscapes,water 1A7.8 conservation practices, and reducing waters DWS $ 2023 • leaks. Reducing water use will reduce DWS energy use. 1,B. Transportation Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under four strategies, with a total of twenty actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 1B1. Continue implementation of the Multi-Modal Transportation Plan to decrease emissions from individual commutes and decrease emissions of the public transit fleet Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 161.1 Make riding transit easier, reliable, and MTA $$ compatible with other multi-modal options — Continue the multi-modal program to increase access to biking and 2023 • walking options for residents — Implement the multi-modal complete streets program for island-wide 2025 • with a focus on urban areas. 161.2 Create a transit system to serve the MTA $$ 2023 • employment and social needs of all people — Continue to sustain and maintain the transit network and adjust as demographics and socioeconomic conditions change. • Implement technology to provide information to riders and others, including helping to achieve 161.3 clean energy goals through alternate energy MTA $$$ bus and infrastructure purchase, doing so in a fiscally responsible manner. — Three (3) hydrogen buses go into service on Kailua-Kona routes 2023 _ • — Five (5) electric battery buses and charging equipment purchased 2024 • — Three (3) diesel hybrid buses purchased 2023 • — 28 future purchases would be a combination of diesel-electric, hybrid, 2025 • electric, and/or hydrogen if approved by HDOT. Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 31 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��'y►rV� Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Create transit hubs and bus stops with 1 B1.4 amenities that provide rider comfort and safety MTA $$$ and that help support community and village gathering — Plan, design, and build the Kailua-Kona hub. Consider options to 2023 • _ provide light service from Kailua-Kona side. — Design and develop a Puna hub and complete roadway improvements 2023 • to allow for Intra-Puna service. 1 B1.5 Phase implementation in a fiscally sustainable MTA $ manner — Test hydrogen and EV fueled buses on the island to demonstrate how 2023 • well they work on the island's various climate and terrains. — Add staffing to include an Assistant Mass Transit Administrator, Inventory Clerk, and a second shift of four mechanics and working 2023 • supervisor. 1B2. Transition the County fleet to zero emissions Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 1 B2.1 Create a shared-use mobility program among R&D, $ 2024 • County depts. that use vehicles intermittently DPW, DF Develop an online platform to consolidate 162 2 County vehicle fuel use, vehicle miles traveled, R&D, $ 2025 • elevation profile of vehicle routes, and vehicle DPW maintenance data — Integrate platform with energy management system identified in 1A1.6 Conduct a study to identify high-priority vehicles 1 B2.3 for fleet transformation, including vehicles that R&D $$$ 2025 • need to be replaced and highest-emitting vehicles 1 B2.4 Publish an internal annual report and external R&D $ 2023 • annual summary on fleet use and fleet transition 162.5 Create a fleet transformation plan for each dept. All,DRF D, $$ 2025 • — Conduct an alternative fuel vehicle cost-benefit analysis for new vehicle purchases. The analysis should include IRA tax credits, third party financing, rebates, and methane-conversion. Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 32 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to � Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change ete_14k Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs — Conduct feasibility study on retrofitting heavy-duty vehicles with zero- emissions or renewable fuel technology. Include a cost-benefit analysis _ of retrofitting engines versus purchasing new vehicles — Determine necessary, feasible steps and cost to build the capacity of the Automotive Division to work on zero emission vehicles, including: Training;Equipment Purchasing;and Public-Private partnerships with local automotive shops and dealerships to invest in training and equipment necessary for fleet transition. Place charging infrastructure in all County 1 B2.6 buildings, public parks, and baseyards for DPW $$$ 2027 • County use, including developing hydrogen fueling stations in Hilo and Kona 1B3. Implement carbon-free vehicle purchasing policies in Hawaii County and improve purchasing policies to reduce emissions associated with importation Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 1 B3.1 Establish an alternative fuel checklist for all new DF, R&D $ 2024 • County vehicle purchases _ — Utilize cost-benefit analysis(82.5) to determine cost of alternative fuel vehicles Mandate reporting of all new vehicle purchases County I 1 B3.2 including average mpg, emissions equivalent Council, $ 2024 • per gallon of fuel (or kWh), and estimated R&D, DF, annual operation and maintenance costs DPW Revise County purchasing process to prioritize 1 B3.3 local purchasing to reduce the emissions from DF $ 2024 • importation of goods and services to the County. Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 33 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to IOCIe�w Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *•��►r� 1B4. Increase accessibility of zero emissions vehicle infrastructure and alternative transportation options to the public Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Pass an ordinance to require County-built roads 1 B4.1 to include complete street measures where County $ 2025 • most effective to promote alternative transit Council options and pedestrian-friendly development Increase and maintain electric vehicle and 1 B4.2 hydrogen vehicle charging stations on County DPW $ 2028 • sites at low to no cost for users i 1 B4.3 Create a shared-use mobility system for R&D, $ 2026 • County-owned electric vehicles DPW Partner with non-profits, schools, and State agencies to increase community-wide 1 B4.4 awareness and accessibility re: reducing R&D $ 2023 • transportation cost and emissions (i.e., the impact of keeping tires inflated on efficiency of I cars)through education awareness program. Conduct public outreach around charging DPW, 1 B4.5 stations to align new construction of County R&D $ 2024 • infrastructure with business and community 1C. Waste Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under five strategies, with a total of twenty-two actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 1C1. Reduce the carbon footprint of the landfill. Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Implement methane collection systems at landfill DEM, 1C1.1 and wastewater treatment facilities so that the R&D $$$ 2023 • methane can be stored or converted for fuel — Acquire grant monies to conduct an assessment to determine methane produced at wastewater and waste facilities Create a strategic plan for reducing the 1C1.2 emissions of the landfill and wastewater DEM $$ 2024 • treatment plant — Engage community stakeholders, businesses, and policymakers in plan creation through a taskforce Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 34 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►rV� Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Continue to explore opportunities with third 1C1.3 parties to divert the waste from the landfill DEM $$$ 2023 • and/or repurpose the waste for economic development and energy needs Explore opportunities with third parties to reduce 1C1.4 greenhouse gas emissions from the wastewater DEM $$$ 2024 • treatment plants 1C2. Advocate for policies that promote waste diversion through source reduction and recycling. Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Amend Chapter 20 of the HCC to establish waste management goals that are expressed and measured in terms of environmental and County 1C2.1 community impacts(e.g. greenhouse gas Council, $$ 2024 • emissions,toxicity, energy use)and consider DEM life cycle impacts, in addition to tonnage-based landfill diversion and waste recovery goals — Create recommendations based on the lifecycle impact report Amend administrative rules and procedures to 1C2.2 include a differential tipping fee and to mandate DEM $ 2023 • solid waste collection fees be reviewed and , equitably updated on a regular basis. Amend Chapter 20 of the HCC to include a County 1C2.3 schedule of select materials that shall be Council, 2023 • separately collected, recycled, and prohibited $ from entering the landfill. DEM — Continue ongoing initiatives to implement extended producer responsibility Continue to advocate for and streamline the 1C2.4 process of state policy to increase accessibility DEM $ 2023 • of recycling — Advocate for mandated recycling and organic waste infrastructure be available in all public waste collection contracts Develop legislation that requires owners and County 1C2.5 managers of multi-family dwellings and multi- Council, $ 2028 • tenant commercial building to provide recycling DEM receptacles Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 35 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to IOCI��w Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�IPp.r 1C3. Support local businesses and community members in reusing goods and materials. Project burabon Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action. Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Hire staff to track waste collected at landfills, 1C3.1 report findings, and connect local businesses to R&D $ waste streams. — Procure a Landfill Diversion(LD)Database Software to collect primary data to track type, amount, and source, when possible, of materials 2024 • _ diverted from the West Hawaii Sanitary Landfill. — Procure a Surplus Database Software to establish a database for surplus materials and goods through redistribution, re-sale, or donation. Members can post listings or search for available surplus 2024 • items or materials, automating the process of connecting those who have items they no longer need with those who do. 1 C3.2 Conduct assessment of current operational DEM $$ 2024 • methodologies to improve efficiency 103.3 Expand opportunities to recycle in public areas DEM $$ and during public events — Continue to install additional recycling bins in parks and other public 2023 • areas — Increase recycling opportunities at community events 2025 • 1 C3.4 Expand opportunities for commercial recycling DEM $$ 2024 • — Continue to work with HDOH Solid and Hazardous Waste Branch to modify recycling and transfer station operating permits to accommodate expanded residential recycling services. 1C3.5 Expand and improve public education and DEM $ awareness programs — Develop a business waste audit and education program to build 2023 • _ capacity for source reduction within the local business community — Develop a waste reduction education program that specifically targets educating visitors and the hotel and lodging industry on circular 2023 • economy principles — Continue reuse education, outreach, and public awareness campaigns 2023 • _ to encourage public participation and use of the reuse centers — Improve signage at recycling and transfer stations to provide the public • with comprehensive information about recycling opportunities and 2023 procedures — Increase participation and vendor partnerships for used motor oil 2023 • I program Continue partnerships with organizations such 1C3.6 as Goodwill Industries to develop reuse centers DEM $ 2023 • at existing outlets within the County Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 36 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� Action County Cost Start 2-5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 1C3.7 Establish a building deconstruction reuse and DEM, $$ 2025 • recycling program. R&D — Conduct a feasibility assessment of best practices and opportunities 1C4. Support mulching operations to allow for soil enhancement County-wide. Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2-5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 1C4.1 —Continue to explore decentralized options for DEM $ 2024 • — — mulchingL — Partner with others to establish mulching demonstration gardens at ' ,,' 7 recycling and transfer stations or other visible locations in the community 1 C4.2 Continue to apply for grants and implement DEM $ 2023 • pilot composting systems for homeowners. 105. Decrease waste of County operations Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2-5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 105.1 Mandate end-of-life requirements for County- County owned renewable energy infrastructure. Council, $ 2025 • R&D — Conduct an end-of-life environmental impact assessment of County- owned renewable energy and battery storage infrastructure, including analysis of existing infrastructure, community outreach, and best practices for disposal. Continue and expand the system for sharing 105.2 infrequently used items among departments DF $ 2023 • through Property Management. 105.3 Continue to pilot procurement models that encourage reuse, including product-as-a- DF $ 2024 • service, e-leasing, and product take-back. Establish composting sites at County facilities 105.4 and parks with proper management to prevent DPW' $ 2027 I • scavenging and unsanitary conditions. DPR Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 37 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W 1D. Land Use and Carbon Sequestration Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under four strategies, with a total of eighteen actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 1D1. Establish a system for collecting, monitoring, and evaluating the carbon sequestration potential of Hawaii Island and the impact of land use Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Partner with State and federal agencies to 1D1.1 identify a carbon sequestration baseline for R&D, PD $ 2023 • Hawaii Island Partner with State and federal agencies to 1D1.2 develop a standardized platform to monitor R&D, PD $ 2024 • carbon sequestration potential and land use over time — Publish a report that evaluates the impact of development and land use on Hawaii Island carbon sequestration utilizing the platform. • Create policy recommendations based on 1D1.3 carbon sequestration trends observed through PD $ 2028 • monitoring system Conduct a study to identify County-owned 1D1.4 undeveloped or vacant lands that can be R&D $ 2025 • reforested Continue to pilot regional examples of carbon 1D1.5 sequestering landscaping on public access and DF, DPR $$ 2023 • open spaces lands, County parks, and County assets — Conduct an inventory of existing studies done on public access and open space lands to demonstrate models for evaluating carbon sequestration Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 38 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to IOCIe�w Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *•��►r� 1D2. Promote reforestation and conservation of forest canopies, especially in mauka areas that benefit watershed capacity and quality Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Continue to plant only native or non-invasive 1 D2.1 species as part of public access and open DF $ 2024 • spaces lands management practices Establish an ordinance to require all County County 1 D2.2 owned lands to plant only native or non- Council, $ 2024 • invasive species, specifically plants most able DPR, to thrive in the local environment DPW — Partner with state agencies, the conservation and landscaping industries, and local community members to develop a preliminary list of plants for specific sites and best management practices, such as mulching, to prevent invasive species growth. Amend Chapter 2,Article 42 of the Hawaii County 1 D2.3 County Code to prohibit the planting of invasive Council, $ 2024 • species in public access and open spaces DF lands In every grubbing and grading permit, include a 1 D2.4 list of local nurseries with which developers can DPW $ 2023 • partner for landscaping needs — Partner with local non-profits to create a list of nurseries, such as Plant Pono certified nurseries Amend Chapter 25 to require a percentage of County 1 D2.5 open space to be preserved as open space as Council, 2023 • a condition of approval for any rezone or time $ extension to maintain forest and plant cover. PD 1D3. Encourage farming practices that increase soil quality and ability to capture carbon Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Continue to provide funding to farmers through 1 D3.1 small grants, prioritizing projects that increase R&D $ 2023 • soil quality and improved manure management Explore the potential cost-benefits of creating a 1 D3.2 new category within the real property tax code DF $ 2027 • with benefits for carbon neutral or carbon negative agricultural lands Partner with State agencies, local universities, 1 D3.3 and non-profits to provide technical assistance R&D $ 2024 • and educational materials on best farming Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 39 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change itFA * Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs practices that improve carbon sequestration potential and increase soil quality 1 D3.4 Increase tool-sharing, including maintenance, R&D $ 2025 • to increase accessibility of local farming Collect baseline data on food importation and 1 D3.5 inform local producers and distributors on high R&D $ 2024 • demand products and incorporate this data into future County Greenhouse Gas Inventories Continue partnerships with State and federal 1 D3.6 agencies to expand programs like Da Bux to R&D $ 2023 • increase accessibility of local food 1D4. Carbon Credit Programs Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 1 D4.1 Partner with the State to explore carbon R&D $ 2023 • markets for which the County is eligible — Establish reporting standards to measure carbon sequestration of ag and conservation land. Partner with State agencies to investigate the 1 D4.2 potential of accessing national carbon credit R&D, DF $ 2028 • markets for County-owned and managed properties Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 40 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Climate Action Co-Benefits Climate co-benefits describe the potential for actions to achieve multiple outcomes. In order to realize a co-benefit, each action must be planned, designed, and implemented with a conscious consideration of co-benefits. Co-Benefit Action Number • Increased heat waves and average temperature will increase energy demand. 1A2, 1A3, 1A4, Reducing dependence on fossil fuels for electricity will minimize the cost of A5, 1A6, 1A7 increased demand on the County, residents, and businesses. Climate Risk • Reducing emissions via restoring native ecosystems can increase wetland 1 B4.1, 1D1.4, Reduction barriers against sea level rise and decrease urban heat zones through cooling. 1D1.5, 1 D2 • Incentivizing new and implementing existing energy efficiency measures for LMI 1A5.2, 1A5.3, communities will decrease the percentage of income spent on electricity. 1A5.5, 1A6, 1A7 • Increasing building energy efficiency increases access to temperature-regulated 1A5.2, 1A5.3, buildings for vulnerable members of the population, including kupuna, keiki, and 1A5.5, 1A6 people with chronic health conditions. • Increasing transit-oriented development and public transit accessibility decreases 410 cost of transportation and commute time, allowing people to spend more time 161, 1 B4 with their families. Socio-Cultural • Reducing waste decreases toxic runoff and water table pollution, increasing 1C2, IC3, IC4, Equity healthy watersheds that support families harvesting their own food. IC5 • Restoring and conserving native ecosystems preserves plants that are Native 1D2.1, 1D2.2, Hawaiian cultural staples. 1D2.3, 1D2.4 • Increasing equitable resilience to climate hazards will benefit historically marginalized and frontline communities and communities that have been made All actions vulnerable to climate change impacts. _ • Vegetation management focused on removal of non-native and invasive trees 1D2.1, 1D2.2, and vegetation and restoration of native trees and vegetation will reduce risks 1D2.3, 1D2.4, from both wildfire and flooding and improve management of debris flows and 1 D2.5 sediment runoff during severe rainfall events. (PI • Conservation of forest canopy and reforestation mauka decreases stream 1D2.1, 1D2.2, diversion and increases water tables. 1 D2.3, 1 D2.4 Environmental • Incentivizing waste reduction decreases leakage of toxic chemicals from 101, 1C2, IC3, Protection landfilled and non-landfilled waste. IC4, 105 • Incentivizing waste repurposing can build soil. 1C4, 105.4 • Restoring and conserving native ecosystems reduces the vulnerability of native 1 D2.1, 1 D2.2, plants to invasive species. 1 D2.3, 1 D2.4 • Increasing re-use of waste creates local jobs that support local businesses. 1C3, 105.2 • Reducing landfilled waste also reduces environmental externalities that are Economic penalized by the EPA, require resources to address, and decrease the viability of IC Resilience land for agriculture. • Incorporates policies and actions in Multi-Modal Transportation Plan and IB, IC Integration Solid Waste Management Plan. Plan Integration • Consistent with Hawaii General Plan 1A, IB, ID Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 41 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 11�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►rVL r�- Actions You Can Take Greenhouse What can you do to reduce gas your emissions? emissions Use these tips to reduce your Energy save on your emissions and as bills.� • Replace light bulbs with LEDs energy and g • Invest in rooftop PV panels and home batteries • Contact Hawaii Energy for energy audits for your home and apply for their rebates ($$ back) \ 11. • Purchase electric lawn equipment (weedwhackers, leaf C1 (;) blowers, lawn mowers, etc) • Update your home's insulation to reduce AC Waste • Compost your food Transportation • Shop with reusable bags • Carpool with friends and • Avoid single use plastics coworkers • Bring your own plates, utensils, • Drive less by combining trips water bottles, coffee cups • Use Hele-on public transit • Reuse and repurpose goods and • Bike or walk when you can materials where possible • Choose a fuel-efficient vehicle such as a hybrid or electric car • Maintain your vehicle. Regular maintenance, such as changing the oil and keeping tires properly inflated, can improve fuel efficiency , 4 Land Use • Use organic fertilizers, reduce pesticides compose 0 • Plant trees • Grow your own garden Climate Cascade 1:Greenhouse Gas Emissions 42 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *lie�►�'y►r�� - CLIMATE CASCADE 2: AIR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE Climate Cascade 2 focuses on the primary indicators of climate change: increasing air and sea surface temperature and lowering ocean water pH (acidification) (Figure 11). This section describes and evaluates this climate cascade and identifies intervention points for County actions and the potential co- benefits of such actions. Cascade 2: Air & Sea Surface Temperature '`greenhouse gas emissions invasive species& '`air&sea surface temperature land management •ntane/forest permafrost ecosystems l' ----------7 air & sea surface temperature ocean pH agriculture 2A human energy2C coral reef 2B health ecosystems 1 economy Figure 11.Climate Cascade 2.Air&sea surface temperature Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature....... 43 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change rdsie 111L Cascade Narrative Rising greenhouse gas emissions increase air and sea surface temperature. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions result in higher air and sea surface temperatures and greater absorption of carbon dioxide in the ocean, which decreases ocean pH (in other words, increases acidity). The number of hot days per year in Hawaii has increased dramatically over the last decade.60 Temperature is predicted to continue rising above historical averages (Figure 12).61 Coastal communities on the island are especially susceptible to increased temperatures, with longer stretches of temperatures well above 80 °F. Higher temperatures alone can be dangerous for the health of humans and other living creatures. Higher temperatures also change the natural cycles of our planet. For example, higher temperatures can affect how the atmosphere retains water, leading to increased rain in some areas and drought in others. Global warming may accelerate even more as increasing air temperature mobilizes the release of methane from thawing Arctic permafrost.62 60 Stevens, L.E., R. Frankson, K.E. Kunkel, P.-S.Chu, and W. Sweet(2022). Hawaii State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-HI. NOAA/NESDIS,Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp. https://statesummaries.ncics.org/chapter/hi/ 61 Hawaii Department of Transportation. 2021. Hawaii Highways, Climate Adaptation Action Plan, Exposure Assessments, https://hidot.Hawai'i.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/HDOT-Climate-Resilience-Action-Plan-Exposure-Assessments-April-2021.pdf 62 Froitzheim, N., Majka, J.,&Zastrozhnov, D. (2021). Methane release from carbonate rock formations in the Siberian permafrost area during and after the 2020 heat wave. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(32),e2107632118. doi:10.1073/pnas.2107632118 Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature....... 44 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 011P1�leaete Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change */O'y►fr P \--'' t6 Temperature(Fahrenheit: is 81.3 \- ..0-r.--.'" "...„_ 73 III 5664 rij ',,, 47 38.5 \ i / -Roads 30 Milan B Temperature(Fahrenheit) &1.3 73 64 ,., 58 47 38.5 s ��. ..�. Roads in ,.1 ii-, Figure 12.Annual mean temperature(A)historical and(B)end-of century under the IPCC high-emissions scenario(Scenario RCP 8.5) Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature 45 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change leoFA * Hotter air temperature poses risks to human health. Hot temperatures can be unsafe, especially for vulnerable populations and people exposed for extended periods of time. Kupuna and keiki, especially keiki playing outside, are even more susceptible to the effects of extreme heat. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can cause heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and death, as well as exacerbating preexisting chronic conditions such as respiratory, cerebral, and cardiovascular diseases.63 Hot temperatures become more dangerous when combined with high humidity, as humidity compromises the effectiveness of sweat cooling the body. This means the higher the humidity, the hotter temperatures feel Heat indices measure the combination of humidity and temperature. Urban areas lack the tree canopy and green spaces that absorb heat and provide shade. Instead, infrastructure, like buildings and roads, increases the surrounding temperature, creating an urban heat island effect. Plants, birds, and other living beings will migrate and will likely be more stressed with increasing air temperature. Temperature is an essential part of how living beings regulate our behavior. The gender of honu 'ea [hawksbill turtles] is affected by temperature, with warmer temperatures leading to more female honu born.64 Mamo and other damselfish species regulate their metabolism through temperature. Higher temperatures have been shown to negatively affect their ability to metabolize and swim.65 Increased air temperature will affect the behavioral patterns of living beings on Hawaii island, often in ways we can't yet predict. For example, avian mosquitoes are migrating mauka with warmer air temperatures, harming native bird populations that live at higher elevations.66 Some plant species may benefit from higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Increased carbon may boost forest growth and crop yields by increasing rates of photosynthesis and decreasing the loss of water from transpiration.67 However, other factors critical to plants' growth, such as nutrients, temperature, and water, may limit growth.68 For example, the seed production of koa decreases in response to higher temperatures.69 There are many ways living creatures can adapt to increased temperature. In alpine ecosystems across the Pacific, species have been migrating to higher elevations in response to climate change.70 Increasing temperature exacerbates drought intensity due to higher 63 National Institutes of Environmental Health.2022.Climate and Human Health. https://www.niehs.nih.gov/research/programs/climatechange/healthimpacts/heat/index.cfm#:—:text=Prolonged%20exposure%20to% 20extreme%20heat,%2C%20cerebral%2C%20and%20cardiovascular%20diseases. 64National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2022). Hawaiian Hawksbill Sea Turtle Brochure. https://media.fisheries.noaa.gov/2022-02/hawaiian-hawksbill-sea-turtle-brochure-PI RO.pdf ss Johansen,J.L.and Jones, G.P. (2011), Increasing ocean temperature reduces the metabolic performance and swimming ability of coral reef damselfishes. Global Change Biology, 17:2971-2979. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02436_x 66 L. B. Fortini, L. R. Kaiser, D.A. LaPointe, Fostering real-time climate adaptation:Analyzing past, current,and forecast temperature to understand the dynamic risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers from avian malaria. Glob. Ecol.Conserv.23,e01069(2020). 67 NASA.2022. NASA Study: Rising Carbon Dioxide Levels Will Help and Hurt Crops https:iiwww.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-study-rising-carbon-dioxide-levels-will-help-and-hurt-crops fi8 Cho, Renee.2022. How will climate change affect plants?https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/01/27/how-climate-change-will- affect-plants/ 69 Pau, S, Cordell, S, Ostertag, R, Inman, F,Sack, L.Climatic sensitivity of species'vegetative and reproductive phenology in a Hawaiian montane wet forest. Biotropica.2020;52:825—835. https://doi.orq/10.1111/btp.12801_ 70 Frazier,A.G., &Brewington, L. (2020). Current Changes in Alpine Ecosystems of Pacific Islands. In M. I. Goldstein&D.A. DellaSala(Eds.), Encyclopedia of the World's Biomes(pp.607-619). Oxford: Elsevier. Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature....... 46 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change rdsie IL evaporation which can increase tree mortality and therefore contributing to forest decline." Species in Hawaii are most vulnerable when they are also threatened by habitat loss and invasive species.72 Increased temperature places greater demand on energy systems. Increasing air temperature places greater demand on energy consumption. Increased use of air conditioners will be necessary for organizations that serve vulnerable populations, such as hospitals and schools. Additionally, technology like data servers require immense amounts of cooling, which will increase energy demand as temperatures and technology use rise. Disasters from climate change can also increase energy demand, as power sources go out and need to be replaced with fossil fuel.73 Heightened energy demand further increases greenhouse gas emissions, especially without renewable and reliable energy sources. A warmer ocean and more acidic ocean stresses coral reef ecosystems. Decreasing ocean pH (ocean acidification) can damage coral reefs directly and indirectly from increasing rainfall and runoff from sewage and chemicals application, including pesticides and fertilizers. Increasing sea surface temperature, also associated with increasing storm intensity74 can cause similar damage. This ultimately affects fish populations, the food web in marine ecosystems, and the people who depend on them. Hawaii is impacted not only by global ocean acidification, but also coastal acidification resulting from localized land-based pollution, such as runoff and cesspools.75 Coral bleaching may occur annually with increasing ocean temperature. Rising levels of carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean and the resulting increase in acidity changes the balance of minerals in the water.76 Ocean acidification makes it more difficult for corals, some types of plankton, and other creatures to produce calcium carbonate used to produce hard skeletons or shells, making it more difficult for these animals to thrive and jeopardizing the health of the reef. Cascade Exposure Analysis Climate exposure analysis was based on a literature review. A geospatial analysis of climate exposure and risk (as conducted for Climate Cascades 3, 4, and 5)was not conducted. Climate exposure and risk analyses for air temperature should be conducted as described in the Limitations section. 71 Brodribb,T.J., Powers,J., Cochard, H.and Choat, B. (2020). Hanging by a thread?Forests and drought. Science,368(6488), pp.261-266. 72 Lucas Fortini,Jonathan Price,James Jacobi,Adam Vorsino,Jeff Burgett, Kevin Brinck, Fred Amidon,Steve Miller, Sam 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon Ill, Gregory Koob,and Eben Paxton(2013)A Landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native hawaiian plants.Technical Report HCSU-044. https://hilo.hawaii.edu/hcsu/documents/TR44_Fortini_plant_vul nerabil ity_assessment.pdf 73 Perera,A.T.D., Nik,V.M.,Chen, D. eta/. (2020)Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems.Nat Energy 5, 150-159. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0558-0 74 Walsh, K.J., McBride, J.L., Klotzbach, P.J., Balachandran, S.,Camargo, S.J., Holland,G., Knutson,T.R., Kossin,J.P., Lee,T.C., Sobel,A.and Sugi, M. (2016).Tropical cyclones and climate change.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,7(1), pp.65- 89. 75 State of Hawaii(2021). State of Hawaii Ocean Acidification Action Plan 2021 —2031 https://dlnr.hawaii.pov/dar/files/2021/09/State of Hawaii OA Action Plan.pdf 76 EPA(2022).Climate Change Indicators: Ocean Acidity. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-ocean- acidity Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature 47 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Intervention Points and Action Actions are associated with three intervention points (2A-2C) within the climate change indicators cascade (Figure 11). Entities responsible for implementing these actions are mostly County departments but also include the private sector and individuals. Lead County departments for this cascade are as follows: • Planning Department (DP) • Department of Public Works (DPW) • Department of Finance (DF) • Department of Parks and Recreation (DPR) • Department of Environmental Management (DEM) • Research & Development (R&D) 2A. Human Health Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under three strategies, with a total of seven actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 2A1. Reduce risk to community members participating in events at Parks facilities Prof ''% Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs a yrs Track the temperature and humidity of parks 2A1.1 facilities weekly to determine trends in DPR $ 2024 • temperature and heat index. - Determine parks that are experiencing significant increases in 2025 • temperature - Conduct community meetings to determine which policies, such as hours of sport events or providing water to keiki during after-school 2026 • events, need to change. Include a requirement for forest canopy or a 2A1.2 facility that provides shade in future parks DPR $ 2028 • developed. Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature 48 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Oil., •�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Changeifrp . 2A2. Increase tree canopy in urban areas to reduce urban heat island effect Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Pass an ordinance to require new County-built roads to include complete street measures County 2A2.1 where most effective to encourage planting of Council, $ 2024 • trees along streets to provide shade for DPW I pedestrians. [See also 161.1] Identify and rank roads that would be most 2A2.2 feasible and beneficial to retrofit to include DPW $$ 2024 • complete street measures — Conduct a vulnerability assessment for existing roads. This assessment should include vulnerability of population to heat and _ should identify most-highly traversed areas. — Identify trees that are most appropriate to plant to minimize infrastructure damage from root systems or falling trees. Pass an ordinance to require all development in County 2A2.3 urban zones to include urban tree cover. This Council, $ 2024 • requirement should be scaled based on the PD increasing temperature of the area 2A2.4 Create a County-sponsored tree-planting R&D $ 2026 • program 2A3. Increase awareness of effects and prevention of heat exposure Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Partner with public and private entities to 2A3.1 increase awareness of heat risks and care for R&D $ 2024 • people exposed to extreme heat Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature 49 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�% "4- 2B. Energy Resilience Recommended actions at this intervention point include one action under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 261. Ensure County facilities are resilient to increased temperatures Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Include an energy resilience assessment and R&D, 261.1 roadmap in the Energy Management Plan for DPW $ 2025 • County facilities. [See 1A1.5, 1A1.6, 1A1.7] _ — Include an assessment of energy load from technology and vulnerability of populations that utilize facilities. Identify County • facilities that could be cooling centers during heat waves or blackouts. 2C. Coral Reefs Recommended actions at this intervention point include six actions under two categories, as presented in the section and table below. 2C1. Encourage preservation of coral reefs at County beach parks Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 2C1.1 Include infographics about reef-safe activities at DPR $ 2024 • every County beach park Assist with enforcement of restriction of non- 2C1.2 DPR $ 2025 • reef safe sunscreen Continue to partner with the Kohala Center to 2C1.3 provide educational resources to visitors and DPR $ 2023 • residents at Kahalu`u Bay 2C2. Encourage conversion of cesspools Project Duration Action County Cost I Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Continue to partner with State and other entities 2C2.1 to fund cesspool conversions, research best DEM $$$ 2023 • conversion practices, and expand wastewater lines in urban areas to connect those Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature....... 50 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Oil.. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y1* Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs converting from OSDS within wastewater service areas(see also 3E1.1 and 4D2.1) Promote findings of State Cesspool Conversion 2C2 2 Working Group and integrate findings into DEM $$ 2024 • wastewater management, planning, and outreach _ Explore additional opportunities to fund 2C2.3 cesspool conversions for individuals and DEM, $$ 2024 • publicize opportunities to make them easily R&D accessible to the public Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature....... 51 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Climate Action en-Benefits Climate co-benefits describe the potential for actions to achieve multiple outcomes. In order to realize a co-benefit, each action must be planned, designed, and implemented with a conscious consideration of co-benefits. Co-Benefit Action Number O • Preserving and restoring coral reef systems preserves corals 2C1.1, 2C1.2, 2C1.3 • as a source of carbon sequestration. e-o Greenhouse Gas • Increasing tree canopy to reduce ambient temperature Reduction increases carbon sinks. 2A1, 2A2 • Increasing tree canopy and green infrastructure in areas 111* experiencing flooding and sea level rise will help absorb the excess water. 2A1, 2A2, 2C2 Climate Risk • Preserving and restoring reefs provides natural protection from Reduction high waves and inundation. • Restoring and preserving coral reefs preserves the cultural 201, 2C2 resources associated with reefs. • Greening urban areas and developing climate-resilient energy systems increases the availability of cool areas for vulnerable 2A1, 2A2, 2A3, 2B1 Socio-Cultural populations, such as kupuna and keiki, to live and recreate. Equity • Increasing equitable resilience to climate hazards will benefit historically marginalized and frontline communities and All actions communities that have been made vulnerable to climate change impacts. • Increasing urban forestry can create corridors for species to migrate, so they can survive reductions in their natural habitat 2A2.1, 2A2.2, 2A2.3, 2A2.4 Environmental caused by development. Protection (a) • Preserving and protecting coral reefs preserves the industries 201, 202 that rely on reefs, such as fishing. Economic Resilience (" • Consistent with Hawaii State Cesspool Conversion Working 2C2.1, 2C2.2, 2C2.3 Group Research Summary Report Plan Integration Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r+ kNW Actions You Can Take Iair 8sea What can you do to prepare? surface temperature Plant trees in places that don't have 1 ill shade 0 a 0 0 �•. Respect signs asking you not to touch _ fish or reefs AL aftis` ,, r © Bring extra water to outdoor events with keiki and kupuna Before swimming, take off Use reef-safe sunscreen to makeup, hair products, and lotions minimize damage to coral that may damage reefs reefs Place benches in shaded areas so 6 keiki and kupuna can rest when it's hot Replace your cesspool with a y septic tank or other system to reduce sewage leaking into reefs :17on5edonot the reeF! + 4.41 Climate Cascade 2:Air and Sea Surface Temperature......._53_______ CLIMATE CASCADE 3: DROUGHT AND EXTRFMF RAINFAP l' CVFNTS Climate Cascade 3 focuses on how climate change—specifically changes in temperature and climate variability—can impact drought and extreme rainfall events, with compounding risks from wildfire, landslides, riverine flooding, and high winds (Figure 13). This section describes and evaluates this climate cascade and identifies intervention points for County actions and the potential co-benefits of such actions. Cascade 3: Drought & Extreme Rainfall Events tgreenhouse gas emissions 1`air&sea surface temperature 4 climate variability drought& invasive species& 1 extreme land& land management 1` rainfall water use Iri events (( J3A ,, , high windstorms native forest ,„ 1;7' ii ecosystems po-- � k i2 run-off& 4 1lie,,,�� 3C parks& sedimentatio 3B recreation groundwater,water " , human / health catchment, dams&irri.lion ;;. systems tourism groundwater lkirmatima,) 1,p1,7/2/7A0(41 dependent ecosystemswater/wastewater coral reefs systems 11111111 parks& ---► human health agricu 3D 3E recreation &well-being roads&bridges emergency 3F response services food production homes&community facilities Figure 13.Climate Cascade 3:Drought and extreme rainfall Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 54 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Oa__�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►p'y►r�� Cascade Narrative Rising global air and sea surface temperatures are changing rainfall patterns which may impact the frequency and intensity of future drought and extreme rainfall events Climate change and climate variability lead to changing drought and extreme rainfall conditions. Rainfall trends from 1920 to 2012 show a decrease in annual rainfall for all Hawaiian Islands, with the sharpest decline in the western part of Hawaii Island." The worst drought of the past century on Hawaii Island occurred from 2007 to 2014. Droughts have become hotter and longer, cover larger areas, and are increasingly exacerbated by human demands for water.78 Extreme rainfall events on Hawaii Island have become more frequent.79 Extreme rainfall refers to the intensity of a rainfall event that delivers a high quantity of rainfall over a period of time. Rainfall patterns in Hawaii are influenced by natural climate variability from the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Pacific North American teleconnection pattern.80 Extreme rainfall events increase in La Nina years and decrease in El Nino years.81 Drought has cascading effects on agriculture, native ecosystems, and the socioeconomy Prolonged drought has cascading effects on native ecosystems, the economy, agriculture, and public health. Drought can be classified into five categories depending on effects and duration: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, socioeconomic, and ecological (Figure 14).82 The first three types of drought typically occur in sequence, while socioeconomic and ecological drought can occur at any point in a drought's progression and depends on the capacity of state and county resources to respond and the degree to which other ecosystem threats are mitigated.83 Drought reduces stream flow, which decreases the water available to support stream and wetland habitats, agricultural irrigation, cultural practices, and aquifer recharge and freshwater supplies.84 Rain-fed fields and pasture lands are the most vulnerable to drought effects in Hawaii; although if a drought persists, irrigated areas also can 77 Frazier,A.G., &Giambelluca,T.W. (2017).Spatial trend analysis of Hawaiian rainfall from 1920 to 2012. International journal of climatology, 37(5),2522-2531.doi:10.1002/joc.4862 78 Crausbay,S.; Ramirez,A.R.; Carter, S.L.;Cross, M.S.; Hall, K.R.; Bathke, D.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Colt,S.; Cravens,A.E.; Dalton, M.S.; et al. (2017). Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century. Bull.Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98,2543-2550. 79 Chen,Y. R., &Chu, P. S. (2014). Trends in precipitation extremes and return levels in the Hawaiian Islands under a changing climate. International Journal of Climatology,34(15),3913-3925. doi:10.1002/joc.3950 80 Frazier,A.G., Elison Timm, 0., Giambelluca,T.W.,&Diaz, H. F. (2017).The influence of ENSO, PDO[Pacific Decadal Oscillation] and PNA[Pacific North American teleconnection pattern]on secular rainfall variations in Hawaii. Climate dynamics,51(5-6),2127- 2140.doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4003-4 81 Chen,Y. R., &Chu, P. S. (2014). doi:10.1002/joc.3950 82 Frazier,A.G.; Giardina,C.P.; Giambelluca,T.W.; Brewington, L.;Chen,Y.-L.; Chu, P.-S.; Berio Fortini, L.; Hall, D.; Helweg, D.A.; Keener,V.W.; et al. (2022).A Century of Drought in Hawaii: Geospatial Analysis and Synthesis across Hydrological, Ecological,and Socioeconomic Scales. Sustainability, 14, 12023.https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912023 83 Crausbay,S.; Ramirez,A.R.; Carter, S.L.;Cross, M.S.; Hall, K.R.; Bathke, D.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Colt,S.; Cravens,A.E.; Dalton, M.S.; et al. (2017). Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century. Bull.Am. Meteorol. Soc. 98,2543-2550. 84 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan 2020. https://www.Hawai'icounty.gov/departments/civil-defense/multi-hazard- mitigation-plan-2020 Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 55 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W *11 KrA become vulnerable.85 The two worst droughts for the State of Hawaii in the past century were 1998- 2002 and 2007-2014. Over$80 million in drought relief was provided to the agriculture sector as a result of these droughts. 86 Ecological Drought Meteorological Agricultural Hydrological Drought Drought Drought Socioeconomic Drought INCREASING DURATION .. Figure 14.Sequence and duration of drought types Native forests are degraded by warming and drought through increased tree mortality and accelerated grass invasion, which together can reduce the cover of high quality forest and increase vulnerability to fire impacts.87 Freshwater ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to drought. Stream fauna are negatively affected by reductions in stream flow through the limited availability of freshwater habitat, loss of hydrological connectivity, and impaired water quality.88 Reduced surface water and groundwater inputs into nearshore environments may also have negative effects on organisms in brackish and marine environments. Groundwater discharge to streams has significantly decreased over the past 100 years, indicating a decrease in groundwater storage.89 Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDE), such as fish ponds, anchialine pools, and coastal springs, are culturally and ecological important ecosystems that are impacted by drought exacerbated by unsustainable water use.90 Longer and more frequent droughts increase the demand for potable and non-potable water for municipal and agricultural uses. Water supply from County, private, and individual systems will be impacted by drought conditions and increased water use to support residents, agriculture, ranching, and tourism. 85 Frazier,A.G.; Giardina, C.P.; Giambelluca,T.W.; Brewington, L.;Chen,Y.-L.; Chu, P.-S.; Berio Fortini, L.; Hall, D.; Helweg, D.A.; Keener,V.W.; et al., (2022).A Century of Drought in Hawaii: Geospatial Analysis and Synthesis across Hydrological, Ecological,and Socioeconomic Scales. Sustainability 2022, 14, 12023. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141912023 86 Frazier,A.G.et al.,2022. https://doi.org/10.3390/su 141912023 8'Pacific Islands Climate Science Center.(2017). Ecological Drought in the Hawaiian Islands: Unique tropical systems are vulnerable to drought. (Report from the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center Workshop, March 6-8,2017). Honolulu, HI. 86 Clilverd, H.M.,Tsang,Y.P., Infante, D.M., Lynch,A.J.and Strauch,A.M.,2019. Long-term streamflow trends in Hawaii and implications for native stream fauna. Hydrological Processes, 33(5), pp.699-719. 89 Hawaii Water Resources Commission.2019. Hawaii Water Resources Protection Plan. https://files.Hawai'i.qov/dlnr/cwrm/planning/wrpp2019update/WRPP 201907.pdf 9°Gibson,V. L., Bremer, L. L., Burnett, K. M., Lui, N. K.,&Smith, C. M. (2022). Biocultural values of groundwater dependent ecosystems in Kona, Hawaii. Ecology and Society,27(3).doi:10.5751/ES-13432-270318 Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 56 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t leds�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change iVie ►r�� E1- Improving water infrastructure and conservation by increasing water storage capacity, reducing leakages from water systems, providing backup water systems, using stormwater to recharge groundwater aquifers, integrating GDE needs in sustainable water yield analysis, and conducting education and outreach activities are some of the key pre-drought management actions needed in a changing climate.91 Severe rainfall events, compounded by flooding and landslides, increase risks to critical infrastructure, communities, and coastal ecosystems Heavy continuous rainfall over a period of several hours can create disaster conditions in high-sloping areas of the island, which are prone to landslides, and in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Runoff and flooding are some of the most disastrous impacts of severe rainfall events. As stream flows and velocities change, erosion patterns also change, altering channel shapes and depths, possibly increasing sedimentation behind dams, and affecting habitat and water quality. Changes in watershed vegetation and soil moisture conditions also change runoff and recharge patterns. Deforestation augments the impact of extreme rainfall events. When forests are removed from a watershed, stream flows can easily double. Increased sediment prevents streambeds from carrying the increased discharge, causing floodplains and floodplain elevations to increase. �• . 1 • 4• ;taw d kY b j r • 0.4 • f 111. Compounding effects of severe rainfall and landslides on cliff erosion and public safety *: Source:Photo obtained by County after Hurricane Lane 91Abby G. Frazier,Jonathan L. Deenik, Neal D. Fujii, Greg R. Funderburk,Thomas W.Giambelluca,Christian P. Giardina, David A. Helweg,Victoria W. Keener,Alan Mair,John J. Marra, Sierra McDaniel, Lenore N. Ohye, Delwyn S. Oki, Elliott W. Parsons,Ayron M. Strauch, Clay Trauernicht(2019), Managing Effects of Drought in Hawaii and U.S^-Affiliated Pacific Islands. In:Vose,James M.; Peterson, David L.; Luce, Charles H.; Patel-Weynand,Toral, eds. Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: translating science into management responses.Gen.Tech. Rep.WO-98.Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,Washington Office. 95-121. Chapter 5. Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y47‘ *11 E�- Many County roads, bridges, and structures are exposed to severe rainfall events and compounding hazards, especially flooding and landslides. Impacts to roads, powerlines, and other critical facilities result in disruption of emergency services. Increasing numbers of severe flood events will result in increasing numbers of brown water advisories that carry land-based sediment and contaminants, including sewage, dead animals, and pesticides, to the shoreline, beach parks, and coastal waters, impacting both public safety and coastal ecosystems. Wildfires compounded with heavy rainfall events, hot dry weather, and windstorms increase risk to native ecosystems and human health Rainfall-vegetation interactions are key predictors of fire risk.92 Heavy rainfall events prior to a drought season magnify the growth of vegetation that serves as fuel for wildfires.93 Subsequent declining rainfall and stream flow increase the likelihood of wildfire by drying out the vegetation that serves as fuel. As a result, forests are more susceptible to wildfires. Invasive species further compound the impacts of wildfire. Fire that spreads through fire-adapted invasive grasses and shrubs kills native plants that are highly vulnerable to fire.94 Hot dry spells create the highest fire risk. Increased temperatures may intensify wildfire danger by warming and drying out vegetation. Future drying with climate change will shift peak fire risk to higher elevations, endangering native forests mauka.95 High windstorms spread fire, increasing the risk of wildfire. The probability of high windstorms increases in a warmer climate, so climate change may increase the frequency of high windstorms and therefore the frequency and intensity of fires. Faster, wind-driven fires are harder to contain, and thus are more likely to expand into residential neighborhoods. High winds reduce the effectiveness of fuels reduction strategies, such as mown and grazed fuel breaks, and emphasize the need for additional strategies, especially reforestation of grasslands. Direct impacts of wildfires may include loss of structures, crops, and grazing land. Indirect impacts include health and safety issues, loss of nutrients from the soil, soil runoff to coral reefs, and economic impacts on agriculture and tourism. When heavy rains occur following a wildfire, flooding and landslides release sediment into rivers, permanently changing floodplains and damaging sensitive habitat and riparian areas. Fire followed by a severe rainfall event could release millions of cubic yards of sediment into streams and nearshore waters. 92 Trauernicht, C. (2019).Vegetation—rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii.The Science of the Total Environment,650(Pt 1),459-469. doi:10.1016/j.s ci tote n v.2018.08.347 93 Pacific Islands Climate Science Center.(2017). Ecological Drought in the Hawaiian Islands: Unique tropical systems are vulnerable to drought. (Report from the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center Workshop, March 6-8,2017). Honolulu, HI. 94 Helweg, Dave;Giardina, Christian (2017). Ecological drought in the Hawaiian Islands: unique tropical systems are vulnerable to drought. University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science(UMCES)Integration&Application Network Newsletter 581.4p. ss Trauernicht, C. (2019).Vegetation—rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii.The Science of the Total Environment,650(Pt 1),459-469. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.347 Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 58 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 0�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� Potential losses from wildfire include human life, structures and other improvements, and natural resources. Given the immediate response times to reported fires, the likelihood of injuries and casualties is minimal. Smoke and air pollution from wildfires can be a health hazard, especially for sensitive populations including children, the elderly and those with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Wildfire may also threaten the health and safety of those fighting fires. First responders are exposed to the dangers from the initial incident and after-effects from smoke inhalation and heat stroke. In addition, wildfire can lead to ancillary impacts such as landslides in steep ravine areas and flooding due to silt in local watersheds and nearshore receiving areas. 1.04 • .r f �•., y • 4)4- Wildfire near Waimea on July 31,2021, prompts evacuations and threatens ranches and native forests. Source:25th Infantry Division/Handout Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 59 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��'y►r�� Cascade Exposure Analysis The exposure analysis for this climate cascade identified County assets exposed and socially vulnerable communities at risk to multiple hazards. The County can use the information from these analyses to identify areas and assets to prioritize climate action. For Climate Cascade 3, exposure and risk were assessed from the geographic overlap of five hazards: 1. Drought 2. Wildfire 3. Riverine flooding 4. Landslide susceptibility (moderate or high) 5. High windstorms The following are key take-aways from the exposure analysis for this climate cascade: • Example areas with high climate cascade exposure (exposure to four or five hazards) are in South Kohala, North Kona, and South Hilo (Figure 15). • All types of County assets are exposed to the high cascade exposure level (exposure to four or five hazards; Table 4). • The low and medium exposure levels (exposure to one to three hazards; Table 4) can still pose a risk to County assets and communities. • North Kohala and South Kona had the highest number of County assets exposed to the high cascade exposure level (exposure to four or five hazards; Table 5). • Census block groups in South Hilo, Puna, and North Kona have the highest climate cascade risk (exposure to five or six hazards) (See Appendix B). For more information on the individual hazards see Appendix A. The climate risk analysis methodology and maps are provided in Appendix B. To fully explore the exposure and risk analysis, please visit the County's Climate Cascade Exposure Tool. Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 60 ll w „,,, ,-.111. „, 4-, = v- LiJ 0 Ta .! = 2as as o II = c co f=E ....7) .. Ka E 0 o_ RI RI I= .= a) 4-, co ..E .6" 6 -4= = 0..) •o) o .= ,. .6 n o = (ll U) co 2 a) a) ea o IAu) c.) _1 -a en = ea c) a) a) c.) c 4) z = = ea eL las 5 8 .- ca Y o 0 = o o CD = 4••• > 0 to -c c.) = 0 o o o o_ 'E 47, il2 CU ID CD > 0 = = 0 0 a) .z , ci.i. O 0. -x so 0... .a., a- = X L1.1 cu E p o .22.. / -- = -0 co ..c 4., a.) O. 0 o °p_, . '. '---' o o % 03 ..z , 2 . - . z C., l= (Z .R 03 0. ...I- ...,-.2 .= a a, . --cc 0 to a) bJ) = d. C ,S-.) M 1 CC crf S ' Z E .= _al 1:11 (T. -_,.. ...... (A C.7) 4) _q:,0" _ c-, a. -c 'a 174 a: to = __, ci.'' t co .E o• o ci, = = 0 q.) ' 0 .... Z E 7. • {6 4M 0 ii5 0 C.) '.. •.• .9_. = 4.) 8 .= ca ,a, 0 •e 1 c.s m (.) - ,3a 0 = .rii as c , c . .— C. to w 7, = , 0 . cu 0 0 = .._-, ...0. LI co 8 L- = f.= 15 e = -= ea 2 cc ca. o u) x as o 0. 0 ID X 10 > .. 0 = 0 (0) CC 0 = us . ii) .= .. 4-, o o_ x alma" o -cs Lu as = ,..- .. ; o as 12 , _ , . u) la a as ,. ' 0 N .' . .- CO \?Stivi,.... 0 RI '' CO CO 4-. C ,,.,-,_. = 2 0 '' - C ; C RI c.) 01 .. 0 -..-k_ o 8 ..tt Y ..-k,, _ Y — o . . _ ., 0 4-, v -o _c ea ca = 8 0 = r 45 Lri .-1 ._ to co 0 0 0 o 0 Y Z u) e = -0 ...0 .., ii .0 .., = N w sni s +' III sMilli: w ++ O CO N O ti LO Cr) 6) ti O R S;UaUJ6es ew CL ti cCi) Nn rNi CO = as;enna;seM r r (N r r i 6) P _ _ LIJ pue/�;UnO�; LMn 0 CO oho car o CO`DCO R = SlUa;s/c• N O N N- Q. c6 c.o_ co R r 61 r M O cor UL tiiIesodsi u r g abeMas a;!su• M a> = CO N- N- N CO 6) 6) r— N O O) T. N � - r� CO CO 6) N- N 0 s;UauJ6a � o � 7r C0 r en T. y r 05 r c) aui1 aa;eM y Q r.+ R 13 0 1 E 3 5 (e;eau a .71- CC' CD LO r— N CO Cr) O c� o .1...- _ M CO CO = N E pue A;Uno3) N N r N N o a Z SI Uel MEM O r` CO NN- (N O r--- r r r+ R N N N O O 67 CV CO CC Sa6pm R to Q CU 'c CLI tO Ci. 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Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� *Ir'' *Ir'' 1r IKNA Table 5.Climate Cascade 3:Number of County assets by district with high cascade exposure(4 or 5 hazard exposures) 1 Assets Cascade 3 Drought AND Extreme CD Rainfall a1 a; J Y U) u) 4) E �+ Districts " co ' N m NCDDI i . O N M i o R c .Vil R L iiice mg g O o a South Hilo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Puna 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 Hamakua 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 North Kohala 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 South Kohala 7 108 2 3 198 431 0 6 North Kona 3 7 0 0 10 0 7 2 South Kona 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 Ka`u 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 63 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Intervention Points and Actions Actions are associated with six intervention points (3A— 3F) within the drought and severe rainfall cascade (Figure 12). Actions were developed based on the County asset exposure analysis, capital improvement program projects (proposed and completed), and the 2020 County of Hawaii Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan update. Entities responsible for implementing these actions are mostly County departments. Lead County departments for this cascade are as follows: • Planning Department (DP) • Department of Public Works (DPW) • Fire Department (FD) • Department of Environmental Management (DEM) • Department of Water Supply (DWS) �4m New Development Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under two strategies, with a total of seven actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 3A1. Improve climate hazard risk knowledge Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Assess compounding risk of severe rainfall 3A1.1 events and landslides on bluff failure for CD $$ 2026 • susceptible shorelines in Hamakua Improve rainfall data collection and flood risk 3A1.2 identification and notification by installing rain CD $$$ 2026 • _and stream gauges in Hamakua - - Identify locations/quantity of rain and stream gauges 2024 o 3A1.3 Update drought trends CD $$ 2026 • Use spatial and real-time assessments of fire 3A1.4 risk and integrate these into emergency CD $ 2026 • response plans and forecasts 3A1.5 Perform needs assessment and riverine flood DPW $$ 2024 • studies for Puna, North Kona, and South Kohala Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 64 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 11r�► ' ►lr�% 3A2. Update County codes, regulatory standards, and policies to reduce risks from drought, flooding, and fire based on best available climate projections and observed trends Cost Project Duratio Action County ($, $$, Start 2—5 Number Action Lead $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Update zoning (Chapter 25)and subdivision (Chapter 23)codes to incorporate new hazard mitigation requirements for drought and fire risk • 3A2.1 reduction DP $ 2024 Update floodplain management requirements 3A2.2 (Chapter 27)to incorporate new floodplain DPW $$ 2024 • management requirements for extreme rainfall events (see also: 3F2.2, 4A2.4, and 4F1.3) 3A2.3 Protect riparian areas DP $$ • — Delineate riparian areas 2023 o — Develop riparian protection area setbacks and best management 2024 practices 3A3. Decrease use of pesticides that create toxic runoff Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 3A3.1 Eliminate the use of glyphosate for weed DPW $ 2023 • management on County roads and facilities Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 65 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change �►�'y►r�� 9 3B. Water Resources Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under four strategies, with a total of 10 actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 3B1. Increase water storage capacity and groundwater recharge Project Duration Action County Cost($, Start <2 2-5 >5 Number Action Lead $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 361.1 Increase water tank capacity county-wide DWS $$$ • — Monitor, evaluate and identify priorities for water tank capacity 2023 0 improvements in areas at risk to drought 361.2 Increase groundwater recharge through watershed DWS $$ • protection 1 1 — Develop a watershed protection plan for Kona, Kali, and Kohala 2024 0 361.3 Encourage private landowners to increase storage DP $ 2025 • capacity in areas at risk to drought 361.4 Protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDE) DWS $$ • — Locate wells in areas where pumping will not impact GDEs and limit 2025 pumping from wells that impact GDEs. Update the plumbing code to include gray 361.5 infrastructure,which would allow homeowners and DPW $$ 2025 • new developments to install the latest water conservation fixtures 3B2. Reduce water system leakages 'Project Duration Action County Cost($, Start <2 2-5 >5 Number Action Lead $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Conduct annual system-wide water audit to identify 362.1 sources of water loss DWS $ • — Develop criteria to consider drought and other climate impacts in setting 2024 0 retrofit priorities as part of the annual system-wide water audit - Schedule water system upgrades to reduce water system leakage 2025 0 3132.2 Retrofit dams/reservoirs to address embankment stability DWS $$$ • and waterproofing — Complete design for retrofit for Waikoloa Reservoir No. 1 2023 0 Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 66 AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�% 3B3. Identify alternative water supplies for times of drought Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 363.1 Develop a water reuse program DEM $$ • — Identify opportunities for water reuse for all County systems 2024 0 Update water use and development plan 363.2 incorporating ecosystem needs and climate DWS $$$ • change island-wide. — Update water use and development plan incorporating climate change 2024 island-wide — Update water master plan incorporating climate change island-wide r 2023 0 3B4. Develop water conservation program Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Integrate climate change into public outreach 364.1 for water conservation including drought- DWS $$ 2024 • resistant landscapes,water conservation practices, and reducing waters system losses Review/update criteria for water conservation 364.2 triggers for the Waimea water system DWS $ 2024 364.3 Update rate structure to influence active water DWS $$ • conservation techniques every 5 years — Review/update rate structure based on changing use and projected T future impacts of climate change on water supply 2023 0 3C. Parks and Recreational Areas Recommended actions at this intervention point include two actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 67 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 1�g Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� 3C1. Upgrade/relocate parks and park facilities exposed to flooding, drought, and other hazards Cost oject Duration Action County ($, $$, Start 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs yrs Assess risks to park facilities as part of the 3C1.1 design of renovation or construction projects DPR $$ • — Develop assessment tool to assess risks to structural conditions, 2025 0 landscaping, irrigation system and drainage — Conduct assessment using tool at Kamakoa Nui 2026 o 3C1.2 Develop continuous corridors that protect riparian areas and open space,provide recreational opportunities, and mitigate risk DP $$ • from flood events and stormwater(see also 3A2.3) — Map potential open space networks and trail systems 2025 0 — Develop design standards for continuous corridors 2026 a 3D. Roads and Bridges Recommended actions at this intervention point include three actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 3D1. Upgrade/relocate roads and bridges vulnerable to flooding from extreme rain events Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 3D1.1 Retrofit/relocate roads and bridges in flood DPW $$$ • prone areas — Review flood complaint logs to identify high flood risk areas 2024 0 — Assess flood risk to identified priorities including roads to access to Hilo hospital;roads above and below highway in Hamakua;and 2024 0 Alaneo St, Haleaha PI, Keanuiomano St, Waiaka St. _ — Conduct multi-hazard assessment that includes climate risk to support 2024 I retrofit needs — Partner with the State to retrofit/relocate State roads and bridges in 2024 0 flood prone areas � Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 68 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� Action County Cost Start <2 2-5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Install drainage improvements,flood channels, 3D1.2 and retention basins to address flood risk to DPW $$$ • communities - Conduct hydrology studies to address risks to development in South 2024 Kohala, North Kona, and South Kona - Map floodplains for South Kohala, North Kona, and South Kona E 2024 0 - Plan for future climate impacts as a standard part of building new 2024 • county facilities and infrastructure 3D1.3 Harden Wailuku Bridge#1 in South Hilo DPW $$$ 2025 • 3E. Water and Wastewater Systems Recommended actions at this intervention point include two actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 3E1. Upgrade/relocate wastewater systems exposed to extreme rainfall events Action County Cost Start <2 2-5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Expand wastewater lines in urban areas to 3E1.1 connect those converting from OSDS within DEM $$$ • wastewater service areas - Assist DOH link County residents to federal and State funding to 2023 upgrade on-site disposal systems in wastewater service areas - Conduct wastewater facility planning and resilience assessment by 2023 wastewater service area Coordinate with the State on wastewater 3E1.2 upgrades associated with State roads and DEM $$ • bridges - Assess vulnerability of wastewater system associated with Wailuku 2023 Bridge F. Existing Development Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under two strategies, with a total of six actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 69 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 10111►1r�� L"Ap- 3F1. Establish a fire risk reduction program Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 3F1.1 Establish fire breaks around communities and FD $$ 2024 • along roadways in high fire risk areas Continue to develop partnerships between communities and landowners to support fire risk 3F1.2 reduction practices, improve access for FD $$ 2023 • firefighters, and identify where water infrastructure can support livelihoods (grazing, agriculture 3F1.3 Conduct public education on possible CD $ 2024 • evacuation routes and safe zones Improve hazard tree management in fire p g and ' 3F1.4 flood prone areas with special focus on $$ • removing non-native and invasive species and DPW %// replanting appropriate native species _ %� — — — Amend landscape rules to promote drought-resistant landscape 2024 0 Participate in the Hawaii Firewise Community 3F1.4 Program to prepare Community Fire Plans CD $ 2024 • 3F2. Improve stormwater and floodplain management Project Duration Action County Cost($, Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action I Lead $$,$$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 3F2.1 Maintain good standing and compliance under DPW $$ 2023 • the NFIP Update floodplain management requirements 3F2.2 (Chapter 27)to enhance the County's DPW $$ ! • classification under the CRS program (see also: r 3A2.2,4A2.4, and 4F1.3) — Coordinate with State to improve BCEGS 2023 0 Encourage green infrastructure in urban areas 3F2.3 (e.g., permeable pavement or stormwater DP $ 2024 • retention)for floodplain management and groundwater recharge Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 70 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to ��►r Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change rdsie �� Climate Action en-Renefits Climate co-benefits describe the potential for actions to achieve multiple outcomes. In order to realize a co-benefit, each action must be planned, designed, and implemented with a conscious consideration of co-benefits. Co-Benefit Action Number • Limiting the spread of fires reduces the associated greenhouse gas 3A1.1,3F1.1 emissions. • Capturing methane from wastewater systems can generate 3E1.1,3E1.2 0300 renewable energy or fuel. en. e0 • Encouraging drought-resistant landscaping increases the area of 3F1.3,3F1.4 Greenhouse Gas vegetation,resulting in more carbon sequestration. Reduction • Reducing the risks of flooding, landslides,and fire reduces the greenhouse gas emissions associated with reconstruction of 3D2.1,3D2.2,3D2.3 infrastructure and need for alternative routes which increase emissions during road and bridge outages • Continued participation in the FireWise program supports 3F1.5 community-driven action to promote safety and wellbeing. • Increasing equitable resilience to climate hazards will benefit historically marginalized and frontline communities and communities All actions Social-Cultural that have been made vulnerable to climate change impacts. Equity • Conserving native ecosystems are fundamental to cultural practices 381.4 • Integrating consideration of GDEs in establishing sustainable water 381.4 yields will reduce impacts to these ecosystems • Vegetation management focused on removal of non-native and invasive trees and vegetation and restoration of native trees and vegetation will reduce risks from both wildfire and flooding and improve management of debris flows and sediment runoff during 3F1.1 —3F1.4 Environmental severe rainfall events. Protection • Fire risk reduction around communities potentially limits fire spreading into upland areas, reducing fire-driven forest loss. • Decreasing use of pesticides can decrease toxic runoff, polluting the 3A3.1 1 water supply and affecting coral and land ecosystem health. • Limiting new development in fire and drought prone areas would 3A1.1 (4.) reduce economic loss to landowners and businesses. • Maintaining good standing and compliance under the NFIP and Economic Resilience enhancing the County's classification under the CRS program will 3F21,3F2.2 reduce the cost of flood insurance for property owners. • Incorporates policies and actions in General Plan and Hazard 3A1.1,3A1.2,3A2.1,3A2.2, rjH Mitigation Plan 3D1.3,3F1.1 Plan Integration • Consistent with Hawaii Fire Management Organization Firewise 3F1.5 Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 71 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 1�g Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� Actions You Can Take drought& What can you do to prepare? revents Droughts Landslides • Plant drought-resistant food and • Stabilize slopes landscaping and mulch them well • Minimize vegetation removal • Use water saving kits • Install water usage meter for real time water monitoring & alert of potential a(D leaks b' Windstorms • Install shower flow restrictors and low flow toilets • Trim trees like albizia and eucalyptus away from structures Wildfires Riverine Flooding • Clear out dry, overgrown underbrush and diseased trees that could be fuel • Clear storm drains and culverts for wildfire • Raise structures above base flood • Mow regularly elevation • Use fire-resistant building materials • Elevate items within house above base flood elevation • Use recommendations from the Hawai'i Wildfire Management • Flood-proof essential structures Organization to safeguard home • Buy flood insurance • Identify alternative water supplies for firefighting • Install/replace roofing material with non-combustible materials Climate Cascade 3:Drought and Extreme Rainfall Events 72 Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of H. ��teelAV,�b CLIMATE CASCADE 4: SEA !.EVEI RISE Climate Cascade 4 focuses on how climate change—specifically changes in temperature and climate variability—contributes to the slowly emerging impacts of sea level rise, with compounding hazard risk from coastal and riverine flooding and landslides (Figure 16). This section describes and evaluates this climate cascade and identifies intervention points for County actions and the potential co-benefits of such actions. Cascade 4: Sea Level Rise Tgreenhouse gas emissions Tair&sea surface temperature A climate variability tropical 4 cyclones& 1 sea level storm surge rise climate migration 1111b11..— lik coastal nvenne flooding& —111 i014100* ra,flooding erosion 46 4A new 4E J, developmentemergency roads&bridges ► response cultural&historic4D water/ services resources wastewater 4F _ systems 4C 1, homes&community groundwater - shallow facilities parks&recreation dependent , groundwater ecosystems aquifers run-off& water supply from human health sedimentation private wells &well-being coral reef tourism 4— ecosystems Figure 16.Climate Cascade 4:Sea level rise Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 73 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Cascade Narrative Sea level rise is accelerating and is projected to continue to rise, even if future GHG emissions are reduced to net zero and global warming halted. Sea level is rising globally and the rate of sea level rise is accelerating due entirely to unabated human activities.96 Sea level will continue to rise even if global warming is halted, as greenhouse gas emissions have a lag effect on temperature.97 Higher global temperatures, driving melting global ice caps and glaciers and thermal ocean expansion, are resulting in rising sea level. Relative sea level rise is higher around Hawaii Island due to subsidence of the growing island. The observed rate of sea level rise for Hawaii Island is 1.6 inches per decade, higher than Maui, O`ahu, and Kaua`i.98 The projected rate of sea level rise at Hilo, Hawaii, is 0.95 feet by 2040, 2.1 feet by 2060, 4.0 feet by 2080, and 6.2 feet by 2100 for an intermediate high scenario.99 The State Climate Commission and Honolulu Climate Commission recommends the intermediate scenario for most planning. Climate change and climate variability both play a role in shorter-term sea level variability. Sea level rise variability is a result of variations in astronomical tides, wave setup, and migration of warm buoyant waters through the islands brought in by winds and currents. Sea level extremes are caused by shifts of the tropical Pacific thermocline associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).100 Hawaii experienced record-high sea levels during 2017 following a strong El Nino event in 2015.101 These record high water levels were produced by a combination of phenomena that included long-term global sea level rise, peak annual astronomical tides ("king tides"), wave setup, and migration of warm buoyant waters brought in by winds and currents. 96 Dangendorf, S., Hay, C., Calafat, F.M. et al. Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s. Nat. Clim.Chang.9, 705-710(2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0531-8 97 IPCC(2023)Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment(AR6),Summary for Policy Makers(2023) https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/I PCCAR6SYRSPM.pdf 98 Marra,J.J and M.C.. Kruk(2017). State of Environmental Conditions in Hawaii and the U.S.Affiliated Pacific Islands under a Changing Climate, NOAA NESDIS National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/publications/state_of_the_environment_2017_hawaii-usapi_noaa-nesdis-ncei_oct2017.pdf 99 Sweet,W.V.,B.D.Hamlington,R.E.Kopp,C.P.Weaver,P.L.Barnard,D.Bekaert,W.Brooks,M.Craghan,G.Dusek,T.Frederikse,G.Garner,A.S. Genz,J.P.Krasting,E.Larour,D.Marcy,J.J.Marra,J.Obeysekera,M.Osler,M.Pendleton,D.Roman,L.Schmied,W.Veatch,K.D.White,and C. Zuzak,.(2022).Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States:Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S.Coastlines.Retrieved from Silver Spring,MD:https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelriselnoaa-nos-techrpt0l-global-regional-SLR- scenarios-US.pdf 100 Widlansky, M.J.,Timmermann,A.,&Cai,W.(2015). Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific. Science Advances, 1(8),el 500560.doi:doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500560 101 Long,X.,Widlansky, M. J., Schloesser, F.,Thompson, P. R.,Annamalai, H., Merrifield, M.A., &Yoon, H. (2020). Higher Sea Levels at Hawaii Caused by Strong El Nino and Weak Trade Winds.Journal of climate,33(8), 3037-3059. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19- 0221.1 Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 74 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to � � Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *d►�'y111L Coastal flooding and erosion from high tides, waves, and storm surge are increasing, driven by rising sea level and other climate change effects. Sea level rise increases the extent of coastal flooding and erosion from high tides102, waves, floods, and storm surge. The number of minor flood days for Hawaii Island increased from 3 days per year on average in the 1960s to 11 days per year in the decade starting in 2005.103 ENSO is one of the principal contributors to long-term wave climate variability in Hawai`i.104 ENSO events can increase or reduce the amount of wave power at the coast, affecting the probability of coastal flooding or erosion. Wave power around the Hawaiian Islands is highly correlated with ENSO events, increasing during El Nino and decreasing during La Nina events. Riverine flooding and landslides compound the impacts of coastal flooding and erosion along Hawaii Island's coastline. Increased riverine flooding during severe rainfall events results in coastal flooding and erosion where the river meets the sea. Severe rainfall and riverine flooding events increase risks from landslides and cliff failure. Many of Hawaii Island's disaster declarations have been associated with severe storms, high surf, flooding, and mudslides.105 Critical infrastructure, homes, and beach parks along the coastline are exposed to coastal hazards exacerbated by sea level rise. Many County roads, bridges, parks, and structures are exposed to coastal hazards exacerbated by sea level rise. Critical infrastructure impacted by sea level rise includes hazard materials and waste storage facilities, wastewater treatment facilities, and transportation, communication, energy, and safety and security systems. Structures along the coastline in South Hilo, North Kona, and South Kohala have the greatest sea level rise exposure. Sea level rise jeopardizes shallow groundwater aquifers used for drinking water wells and degrades water lines and wastewater systems, which leak into groundwater aquifers and coastal ecosystems. Many wastewater line segments, water line segments, and on-site disposal systems are exposed to sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion from sea level rise into shallow coastal aquifers impacts potable water supply from shallow coastal groundwater wells and underground infrastructure such as water and wastewater infrastructure. Underground infrastructure may become corroded and contaminate freshwater and nearshore waters.106 Sea level rise and associated inland and coastal flooding increase 102 Vitousek,Sean et al. "Doubling of Coastal Flooding Frequency Within Decades Due to Sea-Level Rise."Scientific reports 7.1 (2017): 1399-9.Web. 103 Marra,J.J and M.C.. Kruk(2017)https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/publications/state_of_the_environment_2017_hawaii- usa pi_noaa-nesd is-ncei_oct2017.pdf 104 Oderiz, I., Silva, R., Mortlock,T. R., &Mori, N.(2020). El Nino-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Global Wave Climate and Potential Coastal Hazards.Journal of geophysical research. Oceans, 125(12), n/a.doi:10.1029/2020JC016464 105 Hawaii County.2020. Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan los Befus, K. M.et al.(2020). "Increasing Threat of Coastal Groundwater Hazards from Sea-Level Rise in California."Nature climate change 10.10(2020):946-952.Web. Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 75 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �e� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change TAW corrosion of metallic pipelines, resulting in more main breaks and higher repair and replacement costs.107 As sea level rises, sewer lines and cesspools in coastal areas will release wastewater into the groundwater and nearshore waters.1°8 Cultural resources and coastal ecosystems will be impacted by coastal flooding and storm surge. Cultural and historic resources located near the shoreline are at risk to coastal flooding and storm surge exacerbated by sea level rise. National historic landmarks are cultural and historic places that hold national significance.109 They are sites of great cultural significance sacred to the Hawaiian people. Some sites that may be impacted include Kamakahonu and Pu'u Alii. Kamakahonu, the residence of Kamehameha I, is located at the north end of Kailua Bay in Kailua-Kona on the Island of Hawaii. Pu'u Ali'i (the South Point Complex) is thought to be the site of one of the earliest settlements in the Hawaiian Islands and is believed to be the landing place of Hawaii's first inhabitants. Saltwater intrusion from sea level rise into shallow coastal aquifers impacts coastal ecosystems.11° Coastal ecosystems vulnerable to coastal hazards include beaches and cliffs, estuaries, fishponds, and anchialine pools.111 Anchialine pools are unique brackish water environments that form in lava fields near the ocean. These pools are fed by subsurface groundwater (freshwater) and tides (seawater) with no visible connection to the ocean.112 Anchialine pools are fed by groundwater elevated above mean sea level.113 As sea levels rise, groundwater will be pushed upward, exacerbating flooding in some coastal areas. 114 In some cases, new pools will emerge in low-lying areas and existing pools will join together. In other areas, a daily connection to the ocean means pools and the species that depend on them will disappear. Large storm waves or extreme flooding events may connect pools, allowing invasive fish to disperse. Cesspools and other coastal wastewater systems may contaminate groundwater fed ecosystems such as anchialine pools with rising seas. Existing and future development and land use near the shoreline will jeopardize anchialine pools as sea level rises. Hawaii is the only state with these special pools. Anchialine pools provide critical habitat for rare invertebrate species, including shrimp, snails, and damselflies. Many of these species are endemic to the Hawaiian Islands, meaning they exist nowhere else in the world. 107 Habel, Shellie et al. (2020). "Sea-Level Rise Induced Multi-Mechanism Flooding and Contribution to Urban Infrastructure Failure." Scientific reports 10.1 (2020): 3796-3796.Web. 108 McKenzie,T., Habel, S.,&Dulai, H. (2021). Sea-level rise drives wastewater leakage to coastal waters and storm drains. Limnology and Oceanography Letters,6(3), 154-163.doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/1o12.10186 109 National Park Service.National Historic Sites. httns://www.nps.gov/locations/Hawai`i/landmarks.htm,accessed January 2023 110 Befus, K. M.et al."Increasing Threat of Coastal Groundwater Hazards from Sea-Level Rise in California."Nature climate change 10.10(2020):946-952.Web. 111 Gregg, R.M., editor(2018).Hawaiian Islands Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Synthesis. EcoAdapt, https://www.cakex.org/sites/default/files/documents/EcoAdapt_Hawaiian%201s1ands%20Climate%20Vu1nerability%20and%20Adaptat ion%20Synthesis%20Report_January2018.pdf 112 National Park Service. https://www.nps.gov/im/pacn/anchialine_pool.htm#:-:text=Anchialine%20poo1s%20are%20unique%20brackish,visible%20connection %20to%20the%20ocean. 113 Sea Level Rise Effects on Groundwater-fed Anchialine Pools nttps:»u-,6,1161)6.61 c,ob.coo),apost p.,our,rai,icioex.html?appid=4cc09bec75e94d909070610c9d4b7016 114 National Park Service, Pacific Islands Network,Anchialine Pools:Vulnerability to Climate Change in West Hawaii https://media.coastalresilience.org/HI/AnchialinePoolsFAQ.pdf Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 76 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��'y►r�� Cascade Exposure Analysis The exposure analysis for this climate cascade identifies County assets exposed to multiple hazards. The County can use the information from these analyses to identify areas and assets to prioritize for climate action. For Climate Cascade 4, exposure and risk were assessed from the geographic overlap of five hazards: 1. Riverine flooding 2. Event-based coastal flooding 3. Event-based coastal flooding with 3.2 feet of sea level rise (SLR) 4. Chronic coastal flooding with 3.2 feet SLR (SLRXA, passive inundation) 5. Landslide susceptibility (moderate or high) The following are key take-aways from the exposure and risk analyses for this climate cascade: • Example areas with high climate cascade exposure (exposure to four or five hazards) are located in North Kona, Ka`u, Puna, and South Hilo (Figure 17). • All types of County assets are exposed to the high cascade exposure level (exposure to four or five hazards; Table 6). • The low and medium exposure levels (exposure to one to three hazards; Table 6) can still pose a risk to County assets and communities. • North Kona and Puna had the greatest number of County assets exposed to the high cascade exposure level (exposure to four or five hazards; Table 7). • Census block groups in South Hilo, Puna, and North Kona have the highest climate cascade risk (exposure to four or five hazards) (See Appendix B). For more information on the individual hazards see Appendix A. The climate risk analysis methodology and maps are provided in Appendix B. To fully explore the exposure and risk analysis, please visit the County's Climate Cascade Exposure Tool. Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 77 00 ti N 4;1 111 H 71)R J 111 O O 0 ai R CD x 4 I. _.... ... = r .� Q. y N ...,... 41 ru CD �1;. O p . . o �. .1Y I E • O Na.)C co O Z Z o i 0_ C N = R ...Ti L rocca. ro n Y U o = .:: Y > roto ea s 2 te,- "® g o • _ lei y Q2 U = ro o .0 o R = o 03 d w Et m = 4, V eD ro4 ca Z > = c° m .�a as E o. o. m y as o V T °% m• :m ao y y Y T = o rp+ • m ro ) a> R to co 'a V 0) 0• Y CO N N o m m m O Y R N =CC• .CD 3- 3 o 1 ea CRS y .ca m• Y ° c o .sc' bA o Y 3 2 g e O O o. Y i t J O O c'D I r O E p O .0 co E p>, = a .10 w m ami 0 a� cn R O H (-)4X1---V .7 O. a> N i eeL Q =cc W CL -d v i .4 R O N 4'' _ co et C R o = E -0 coV Li) O 'gyp 0a' (.) Z Y Y CD to - i,i _ @ , 144 ■ & r sae n CO o coo o COcm C1 . �� 3 d111 c # y a la co o muew al) TD Be S 3 ' ƒ ' k E Tc NM memmse M o 2 S (® �Nd Pue Auno� mo CO a CO w r Co 2 7 scams S ms dsm - 2 9 M R 3 q 2 k : e� S ps O GCa § o CO CV n CO a a c 01 _ k I muam6 Saunime« R ? G J I-- I o Q c c o oCV CD c o 0 \ s u�Jme« k = ., < a \ ( ■a |ad pue Auno� 3 % o ■ - scams S ms dsm e��S°pup \ o MI Q : eeee c o o n o 2 - , / 0 al al j Wean 11111111111 S C" 2 70 = 2 & m m = o N- COIIII o CDlil 0 o § 0 2 s smog CO c 2 o a 01 � — ' 2 • \ \ 0 p y -I -I 0) \ \ 0 / § § ca a a m m ea \ k 0 0 0 x " k k 0 0 § k _ U o m m ± ±al- o w 2 y y eL / $ / 9 9 2 0 2 _o _0 W W • 2 § k 0 _c £ k CO k k CO CO 02 § k0 co 2 vs vs E 7 R - n � r § e ± q ` 2 -' 0 0 d _ % W _ w � � R � G' � L R Lu � k § p -I N @ n cn § « x 0 0 U m k 2 a 2 \ k z U) 0 ' CL 2 4 111111_.e.> 0 § k ts a E § 0 M] mmp W t16!H § mqo&ns d] 2 ` as PJ Z H I n P!^Pm cv . mmo&nsd] ep�e = I- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to ��i Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�q►r�� Table 7.Climate Cascade 4:Number of County assets by district with high cascade exposure(4 or 5 hazard exposures) Assets Exposed to 4 and 5 Hazard Exposures Cascade 4 Sea Level Rise d CD w DI N J in County Districts d c co w ci N '. I— J co ea t. v� CO � o rn R cn - .15 N 0- c V) ce co O C co c in South Hilo 7 27 4 0 32 1 47 17 Puna 0 29 0 0 3 68 0 4 Hamakua 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 North Kohala 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 South Kohala 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 North Kona 0 6 0 0 15 0 2 7 South Kona 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 4 Ka`u 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 4 Intervention Points and Actions Climate adaptation actions are associated with five intervention points (4A— 4F) within the sea level rise cascade (Figure 16). Actions were developed based on the County asset exposure analysis, capital improvement program projects (proposed and completed), and the 2020 County of Hawaii Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan update. Entities responsible for implementing these actions are mostly County departments. Lead County departments for this cascade are as follows: • Planning Department (DP) • Department of Public Works (DPW) • Department of Parks and Recreation (DPR) • Department of Environmental Management (DEM) 4A. New Development Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under three strategies, with a total of 13 actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 80 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to u�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� 4A1. Improve climate hazard risk knowledge Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 4A1.1 Monitor and map landslide events along the DP $$ 2023 • shoreline I I 4A1.2 Conduct shoreline change studies DP $$ 2023 • 4A1.3 Map shoreline regions DP $$ 2023 • Update urban growth models in the General 4A1.4 Plan for potential influx of climate migrants from DP $ 2026 • Pacific Island countries 4A2. Update County codes, regulatory standards, and policies requiring all coastal development to incorporate measures to reduce risk from coastal hazards and sea level rise ProjectDuration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Revise shoreline setbacks to protect public 4A2.1 safety from flooding and cliff failure, protect DP $$ 2023 • native ecosystems including GDEs, and comply with new State requirements (Rule 11) Revise subdivision rules to require sea level 4A2.2 rise mitigation in new subdivisions in flood DP $$ 2023 • prone areas(Chapter 23) 4A2.3 Integrate sea level rise risk reduction policies DP $ 2023 • and actions in General Plan update Update floodplain management requirements 4A2.4 (Chapter 27)to incorporate new hazard DPW $$ 2023 • mitigation requirements for sea level rise(see also: 3A2.2, 3F2.2, and 4F1.3) Use overlay hazard zones to develop 4A2.5 conditions for land use and design within high- DP $ • risk zones and within or adjacent to urban growth areas outside of high-risk areasi�i;, — Adopt the SLR Area as an overlay for planning and rules(Chapter 25) 2023 o • — Integrate hazard overlays in General Plan update 2024 0 — Review/update hazards overlay, as needed, based on the 5-year in 2025 County Hazard Mitigation Plan update Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 81 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Oa__�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►p'y►r�� 4A3. Set aside shoreline areas as open space to benefit natural resources and public access and reduce risk to structures from sea level rise Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Identify funding sources and mechanisms to 4A3.1 acquire coastal parcels in areas exposed to DP $ 2030 • coastal hazards exacerbated by sea level rise Identify receiving areas for transfer of 4A3.2 development rights from areas exposed to DP $$ 2024 • coastal hazards and sea level rise Identify need for expansion and provide 4A3.3 additional shoreline access points DP $$ • — Maintain mapping of all County existing shoreline access points and 2025 make accessible to the public on-line 4B. Cultural and Historic Resources Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under two strategies, with a total of two actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 4B1. Assess risks to cultural and historic resources in sea level rise prone areas Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Conduct a sea level rise vulnerability 461.1 assessment of cultural and historic resources in DP $$ 2027 • coastal hazard prone areas beginning with County lands — Form a Permitted Interaction Group under the Cultural Resources 2024 o Commission to develop protocols for assessment 4B2. Develop adaptation strategies for cultural and historic resources Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Develop place-based cultural adaptation protocols with Aha Moku council, cultural 462.1 practitioners, and lineage descendants to DP $$ 2023 • proactively address impacts to cultural and historic resources beginning with County lands Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 82 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� 4C. Parks and Recreational Areas Recommended actions at this intervention point include one action under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 4C1. Upgrade/relocate parks and park facilities exposed to sea level rise and other coastal hazards Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 4C1.1 Assess sea level rise risks to County parks with DPR $$ • high exposure and risk to sea level rise — Develop assessment tool that includes identification of potential 2025 — o adaptation strategies and multiple public benefits — Use assessment tool for Kahalu`u Beach Park(North Kona) 2026 0 4D. Water and Wastewater Systems Recommended actions at this intervention point fall under two strategies, with a total of four actions, as presented in the sections and tables below. 4D1. Upgrade/relocate water infrastructure exposed to sea level rise Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs 4D1.1 Retrofit/relocate water infrastructure county-wide DWS $$$ • — Assess vulnerability of water mains subject to inundation by sea level 2024 0 rise and review every 5 years — Coordinate with DPW and DEM on road retrofit/realignment for Hilo Bay waterfront, Kailua-Kona and other locations vulnerable to sea 2024 0 level rise 4D2. Upgrade/relocate wastewater systems exposed to sea level rise Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Expand wastewater lines in Hilo and Kona 4D2.1 wastewater service areas to connect those DEM $$$ • converting from OSDS Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 83 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs — Assist DOH link County residents to federal and State funding to 2023 0 upgrade on-site disposal systems in wastewater service areas — Conduct wastewater facility planning and resilience assessment by 2023 wastewater service area 4D2.2 Assess vulnerability of wastewater gravity DEM $$ • mains in South Hilo — Pu`u`eo Bridge 2024 0 — Hilo Bayfront 2028 0 — Banyan Drive 2028 o Assess vulnerability of wastewater 4D2.3 forcemains/pump stations in South Hilo DEM $$ — Pua (underway, design completed) 2023 I_ o — Pauka`a 2030 0 — Onekahakaha 2030 o — - — Kolea 2030 0 — Wailoa 2030 0 — — Hale Halewai 2030 0 4E. Roads and Bridges Recommended actions at this intervention point include two actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 4E1. Upgrade/relocate roads and bridges vulnerable to sea level rise and other coastal hazards Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Develop adaptation priorities and options for 4E1.1 coastal roads and bridges at risk to sea level DPW $$ • rise � — Hilo Bay waterfront 2024 0 — Pu`u`eo Street bridge over Wailuku River, South Hilo 2026 0 — Ali`i Drive, North Kona 2026 0 4E1.2 Reassess sea level rise risks to Kalaniana'ole DPW $ 2024 • infrastructure improvements, South Hilo Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 84 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to 0;r *I Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change II11114 4F. Existing Development Recommended actions at this intervention point include two actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 4F1. Reduce repetitive flood loss to structures and properties Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Expand and maintain home buyout program 4F1.1 established for volcanic hazard recovery as a DP $$$ 2030 • long-term program to incorporate properties affected by sea level rise Review and revise non-conforming use clauses 4F1.2 in all County codes for rebuilding or repairing DPW $$ 2023 • damaged structures to reduce repetitive flood loss Update floodplain management requirements (Chapter 27)to adopt lower threshold for 4F1.3 substantial improvements/damages based on DPW $$ 2023 • structure value with no lateral expansion of building footprint(see also: 3A2.2, 3F2.2, and 4A2.4) Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 85 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to VI. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change itFA * Climate Action en-Renefits Climate co-benefits describe the potential for actions to achieve multiple outcomes. In order to realize a co-benefit, each action must be planned, designed, and implemented with a conscious consideration of co-benefits. Co-Benefit Action Number • Integrating energy savings and waste management provides an opportunity mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in new 4D2.1 c3• 0 development e-° • Retrofitting or relocating bridges and roads provide an opportunity Greenhouse Gas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by reducing miles travelled 4E1.1,4E1.2 Reduction • Upgrading County wastewater systems would reduce greenhouse gas(methane) leakage 4D • Maintaining and increasing shoreline access for all and not just those who can afford beachfront property must be a consideration 4A3.4 for sea level rise management and shoreline setback policy. • Maintaining parks and recreational areas provides valuable 4C1.1 community services. Social-Cultural Equity • Increasing equitable resilience to climate hazards will benefit historically marginalized and frontline communities and All actions communities that have been made vulnerable to climate change impacts. • Improvements to County and private wastewater management systems would reduce the release of pollutants to nearshore waters 4D2.1 as sea level rises. Environmental • New shoreline setback rules would expand open space along the 4A2.1 Protection shoreline to support coastal ecosystems such as anchialine pools. • Floodplain management rule revisions that reduce risk of coastal flooding and include consideration of increasing flood hazards with SLR will provide credits to the County's Community Rating System 4A2.4 Economic reducing the cost of flood insurance and repetitive losses to Resilience properties and business. 4:1 • Actions integrates policies and actions in General Plan and Hazard 4A2.1,4A2.2,4A2.3, 4A2.5 Mitigation Plan Plan Integration Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 86 .� \a;. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to � . Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y N1 Actions You Can Take sea level What can you do to prepare? rise 0 Retrofit home to elevate it above potential sea level rise Advocate for public shoreline access points to County Council 0 Use online mapping tools to understand which areas will be impacted by sea level rise and be aware of your own exposure and risk to it Relocate to higher ground Climate Cascade 4:Sea Level Rise 87 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to OICI�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 1VPI►gr�� r�- CLIMATE CASCADE 5: TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGE Climate Cascade 5 focuses on how climate change—specifically sea level rise and changes in temperature and climate variability—can impact tropical cyclones and storm surge, with compounding risks from high windstorms, riverine flooding, landslides and coastal flooding and erosion (Figure 18). Preparedness and resilience are key to preparing for future storms to keep the people and assets of the islands safe. This section describes and evaluates this climate cascade and identifies intervention points for County actions and the potential co-benefits of such actions. Cascade 5: Tropical Cyclones & Storm Surge greenhouse gas emissions Tair&sea surface temperature Tsea level rise 4 climate variability tropical (---r"--- cy & stormclones surge --it 4...._ ir coastal high riverine landslide flooding& windstorms flooding ' erosion —/ PHYSICAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC CULTURAL NATIVE GOVERNANCE SYSTEMS SYSTEMS SYSTEMS SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEMS SYSTEMS J/ � � _ --4111 .— J 5A 5B 5C 5D 5E 5F Figure 18.Climate Cascade 5:Tropical cyclones and storm surge Climate Cascade 5:Tropical C clones and Storm Sure 88_. _.. .. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Cascade Narrative Tropical cyclones are becoming more powerful and possibly more frequent due to climate change. Climate models project an increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii as the zone of tropical cyclone formation shifts poleward away from equatorial areas.15 More frequent tropical cyclones are projected for the waters near Hawaii as storms are projected to follow new tracks that bring them into the region of Hawaii more often.16 Major tropical cyclones have become 15 percent more likely over the past 40 years."'A warming ocean results in less cold subsurface water to dampen tropical cyclone activity. Increasing sea surface temperature in areas of tropical cyclone formation relevant to Hawaii suggests a connection to increased tropical cyclone intensity.118 An increase in average cyclone intensity and in the number and occurrence days of very intense category 4 and 5 storms is projected for most ocean basins19 Sea level rise increases storm surge-related flooding along the coast. Tropical cyclones are weather events generated in tropical latitudes characterized by very heavy rainfall and strong and damaging winds. They can generate storm surge and extremely high waves that can result in devasting coastal flooding regardless of whether or not they directly hit the island. Higher temperatures are causing more extreme weather events. Sea level rise increases storm surge-related flooding along the coast. Once a tropical cyclone reaches maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher, it is then classified as a hurricane, typhoon, or tropical cyclone, depending upon where the storm originates in the world.120 In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. Hawaii lies in the Central Pacific, which, on average, experiences four to five tropical cyclones every year. Almost all tropical cyclones in the Pacific basin form between June 1 and November 30. While the number of tropical cyclones in the central Pacific is highly variable from year to year, more tropical cyclone activity is generally correlated with El Nino events. More El Nino events are expected in response to greenhouse warming.121 In 2015, the Central Pacific saw a historic number of tropical cyclones, with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, making 2015 the most active season at that time since reliable 115 Sharmila,S.,and Walsh, K.J.E. (2018)Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion. Nature Clim Change 8, 730-736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5 116 Murakami, H., Wang, B., Li,T. et al. (2013)Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii. Nature Clim Change 3,749-754. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1890 117 Kossin,J.P.,et al. (2020)Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades. PNAS, DOI: 10.1073/p n a s.1 92084 91 1 7 118 Defforge,C.L., Merlis,T.M. (2017)Observed warming trend in sea surface temperature at tropical cyclone genesis, Geophys. Res. Lett.,44, 1034-1040, doi:10.1002/2016GL071045. 19 Knutson,T.,et al. (2020)Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Human-made Warming, Bull.Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2020) 101 (3): E303-E322: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1 120 NOAA.What is the difference between a hurricane and a typhoon? https://oceanservice.noaa.govitactsicycione.ritmi4:-:texr-Once%20a%20tropical%20cyclonetio26reacnes,tne'io20term0.23nui, cane% 20is%2Oused.Accessed January 2023 121 Cai,W., Borlace,S., Lengaigne, M.,van Rensch, P.,Collins, M.,Vecchi, G.,Jin, F. F.(2014). Increasing frequency of extreme El Nino events due to greenhouse warming. Nature Climate Change,4(2), 111-116.doi:10.1038/nclimate2100 Climate Cascade 5:Tropical C clones and Storm Sure 89_. _.. .. Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Oa� ,. Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� E�- record-keeping began in 1970.122 The 2018 hurricane season in the eastern North Pacific broke the 2015 record in terms of frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes.123 The 2015 record occurred during a strong El Nino event where increased ocean temperature fueled the hurricane season. The 2018 record was set under a weaker and later El Nino; however, surface ocean temperature was warmer than normal where the hurricanes formed, which helped their development and made them last longer. As the easternmost island in the state, the island of Hawaii has a slightly higher probability of tropical cyclone landfall. Disaster declarations were issued for six tropical cyclones and severe flood events over the last 20 years, compared to four events over the previous 40 years.124 More powerful tropical cyclones compound risks from other hazards. "The compounding nature of the hazards produced during the Hurricane Lane event highlights the need to improve anticipation of complex feedback mechanisms among climate- and weather-related phenomena."125 Hurricane Lane in 2018 put a spotlight on the risk of compounding hazards associated with tropical cyclones.126 Hurricane Lane did not make landfall on Hawaii Island yet it was the wettest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Hawaii. The island of Hawaii received an average of 17 inches of rainfall with a maximum of 57 inches over a 4-day period. Extreme and prolonged record-breaking rainfall, in part due to the interaction of tropical cyclones with mountains, caused flooding and landslides that closed roads across the island of Hawaii. Powerful tropical cyclones result in higher winds, greater area impacted by flooding, stronger storm surge, and increased risk of landslides. High winds can contribute to strong surf, which in turn results in coastal erosion. A tropical cyclone does not have to directly hit the Island of Hawaii to create storm surge that causes extensive coastal flooding. High winds result in downed trees and power lines that block roads, impede emergency response operations, and together with flooding, create debris that block waterways. 122 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Monthly Tropical Cyclones Report for Annual 2015, published online January 2016, retrieved on Apr 1,2023 from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/tropical-cyclones/201513. 123 Wood, K. M., Klotzbach, P. J., Collins,J. M., &Schreck, C.J. (2019).The Record-Setting 2018 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season. Geophysical research letters,46(16), 10072-10081. doi:10.1029/2019GL083657 124 County of Hawaii (2020). Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan.�ittps://www.Hawai'icounty.gov/departments/civil-defense/multi-hazard i l dation-plan-2020 125 Nugent,A. D., Longman, R. J.,Trauernicht,C., Lucas, M. P., Diaz, H. F.,&Giambelluca,T.W. (2020). Fire and Rain:The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawaii. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(6), E954-E967. doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0104.1 126 Nugent,A. D.et al., (2020)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/BAMS-D-19-0104.1.xml limate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclo.les and Storm Sur:e___„__90_______ Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 9v.°- Hurricane Lane approaches Hawaii Island .4. August 22,2018 �. lyp,,", • • • • • r , I A � � � lu t ti e Risks to critical infrastructure from tropical cyclones and storm surge jeopardize public safety Many County roads, bridges, parks, and structures are exposed to multiple hazards analyzed in Climate Cascade 5. Power outages caused by high winds and downed debris would close roads and schools and ingress and egress for communities. Temporary structures and other structures unable to resist sustained wind speeds may collapse, posing an immediate threat to those within or around the structure. Long-term effects may include the removal of collapsed buildings and removal of debris from waterways. It's not if, but when, A direct hit of a Category 3 or greater hurricane would result in widespread damage to private and public property, including critical facilities and assets.127 Long-term power outages are expected, which may result in loss of utilities such as potable water and wastewater systems. Loss of transportation facilities such as the harbor and airport would exacerbate the magnitude of the event by taxing already limited resources and further isolating the islands from response and recovery resources. Many facilities and structures would require months or years to return to pre-event functionality. Tourism, supporting industries, and the local tax base would experience long-term impacts. The County's emergency services will be especially stretched if a tropical cyclone occurs together with other hazards on the island.128 127 County of Hawaii (2020)Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. 128 Nugent,A. D., Longman, R. J.,Trauernicht,C., Lucas, M. P., Diaz, H. F.,&Giambelluca,T.W. (2020). Fire and Rain:The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawaii. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(6), E954-E967. doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0104.1 ".timate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclo.les and Storm Surge 91 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��'y►r�� Cascade Exposure Analysis The exposure analysis for this climate cascade identifies County assets exposed to multiple hazards. The County can use the information from these analyses to identify areas and assets to prioritize for climate action. For Climate Cascade 5, exposure was assessed from the geographic overlap of six hazards: 1. Hurricane—wind 2. Hurricane - storm surge 3. Riverine flooding 4. Event-based coastal flooding 5. Event-based coastal flooding with 3.2 feet of SLR 6. Landslide susceptibility— med/high The following are key take-aways from the exposure analysis for this climate cascade: • Example areas with high climate cascade exposure (exposure to five or six hazards) are located in districts of North Kohala and North Kona (5 and 6 exposures, Figure 19). • County roads, water and wastewater lines, and parks are most likely to be exposed to the high climate cascade exposure (exposure to five or six hazards; Table 8) • The low and medium exposure levels (exposure to one to four hazards; Table 8) can still pose a risk to County assets and communities. • North Kona and South Hilo had the greatest number of County assets exposed to the high climate cascade exposure (exposure to five or six hazards; Table 9). • Census block groups in South Hilo, Puna, and North Kona have the highest climate cascade risk (exposure to four or five hazards) (See Appendix B). For more information on the individual hazards see Appendix A. The climate risk analysis methodology and maps are provided in Appendix B. To fully explore the exposure and risk analysis, please visit the County's Climate Cascade Exposure Tool. Climate Cascade 5:Tropical C clones and Storm Sure 92_. _.. .. Q1 er I CD qqgTIKAW 1.4 0 0 0 r 0 Y _ �'. • o V m o CD 7 O 'R r0+ V a Y d o — a to N • - .. _..'',ate � 'a 0. 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M ' k k 2 samoe # # ■ a 8 ea• � � \ • To o - c o c a ± e n e - # © = D C C n _1 9 = e e e m _ § 0 a '} - army m = a) e 2 2 / 0 0 2 2 0 Cl) 0 0 U) & g 2 j 0 G / @ / -/ - w w w Cl) k o m 2 % \ @ » 7 2 -0 2 w w o § co 2 2 2 0 / 7 - @ E G § 2 2 § \ / \ U) U) b y f § g x a CO % e 0 ¥ � f 0 7 u 7 / 7LIJ 7 2 \ < ea U w o \ \ ? < 0 0. k U) Q 0 % C) k 0 ] Wmp W - § § & mqo&ns d] 6 G e @eeHeIBmS 2 06 mqo&ns d3 ea @ez eH @p os o 4 - Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� a Table 9.Climate Cascade 5:Number of County assets by district with high cascade exposure(5 or 6 hazard exposures) Assets Exposed to HIGH CASCADE EXPOSURE(5 and 6 Exposures) in Cascade 5 CASCADE 5 TROPICAL �, U, CYCLONES AND w d c STORM SURGE En�, N co E c co County Districts u) w a)cn Ta I-CD J 3 CO 'C N N R R CO c cc m O 6 g g g a in South Hilo 36 0 0 0 23 41 13 0 Puna 12 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 North Kohala 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 South Kohala 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 North Kona 12 0 0 0 23 13 7 0 South Kona 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Kara 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 Intervention Points and Actions Actions are associated with six intervention points (5A— 5F) within the tropical cyclone and storm surge cascade (Figure 18). Actions were developed based on the County asset exposure analysis, capital improvement program projects (proposed and completed), and the 2020 County of Hawaii Multi- Hazard Mitigation Plan update. Entities responsible for implementing these actions are mostly County departments. Lead County departments for this cascade are as follows: • Planning Department (DP) • Department of Public Works (DPW) • Department of Water Supply (DWS) • Department of Finance, Department of Parks and Recreation (DPR) • Department of Environmental Management (DEM) • Office of Housing and Community Development (OHCD) • Police Department (POL) • Civil Defense (CD) Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change /029.47‘ 5A. Critical Infrastructure Recommended actions at this intervention point include seven actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 5A1. Upgrade/harden public safety facilities to remain operational during severe storm events Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Harden the County's radio communications system through replacement of the following 5A1.1 systems: microwave system, direct current(DC) CD $$$ 2023 • power system, photovoltaic energy systems, and tower refurbishment Upgrade County public safety complex to eliminate flooding and failure of the entire 5A1.2 electrical system and upgrade to be able to POL $$$ 2023 • withstand high winds from at least a Category 1 hurricane 5A1.3 Install backup power systems for County DEM $$ • _wastewater systems - Conduct analysis to identify priorities based on criticality 2024 0 Increase resilience of existing water producing facilities to incorporate backup power at various 5A1.4 sites(Parker#1, Parker#2, Lalamilo B, DWS $$$ 2023 • Lalamilo C, Honoka`a, Makapala, Waiaha, Kahalu'u, Queen Lili`uokalani Trust(QLT), Pi`ihonua#1, Pi`ihonua#3A and `01a`a#3) 5A1.5 Assess resilience of roads to tropical cyclones DPW $$ 2026 • (Alii Drive, Kona downtown roads, North Kona) Assess resilience of wastewater systems to 5A1.6 tropical cyclones (Gravity mains in Alii Dr. and DEM $$ 2026 • Palani Road right-of ways, North Kona) 5A1.7 Develop/routinely review multiple/alternate CD $ • tsunami evacuation routes — Identify priority roads based on Police response plan 2024 0 ;B. Social Resilience Recommended actions at this intervention point include four actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 96 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change w►u'y►r,, evg 5B 1. Enhance community resilience to withstand and recover from a disaster event Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Determine feasibility of an earthquake/tropical cyclone retrofit incentive program to encourage 561.1 private property owners to retrofit their DPW $$ 2024 • properties against the impacts of earthquakes and tropical cyclones Incentivize homeowners to retrofit homes to DPW 561.2 meet current building code standards for wind OHCD $$ 2024 • and flood hazards Encourage private property owners to purchase 561.3 flood Insurance and maintain drainage facilities CD $ 2024 • 581.4 Support resilience hubs in communities with CD $$ 2024 • high cascade hazard risk Economic Resilience Recommended actions at this intervention point include two actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 5C1. Support incentives to enhance economic resilience to withstand a disaster event Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Incentivize private sector to purchase flood 5C1.1 insurance and maintain drainage facilities that CD $$ 2024 • service private properties. Conduct training for private sector to develop 5C1.2 continuity of operations plans to address CD $$ 2024 • operations before, during and after coastal storm events. ;D. Cultural and Historic Resources Recommended actions at this intervention point include one action under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 97 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'y►r�� 5D1. Develop cultural resource restoration protocols by ahupua'a iz •roject Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs Convene a cultural resources recovery group to 5D1.1 develop restoration priorities and approach and DP $$ • pre-planning for post-storm assessment — Create Cultural Commission rules allowing for permitted interaction 2025 0 groups to focus on this topic 5E. Hazard Tree Management Recommended actions at this intervention point include three actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 5E1. Develop a hazard tree management program to prioritize removal of trees that pose risks to critical infrastructure from multiple hazards u;. Project Duration Action County Cost Start <2 2—5 >5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year yrs yrs yrs 5E1.1 Develop a procedure, evaluation rating system, DPW $$ 2024 • and GIS database for hazard tree management Remove trees that pose safety hazards during 5E1.2 high windstorms,tropical cyclones, and DPW $$ 2026 • extreme rainfall and flooding events 5E1.3 Maintain and revegetate public areas with DPW $$ 2028 • appropriate native species 5F. Operational Capacity Recommended actions at this intervention point include six actions under one strategy, as presented in the section and table below. 5F1. Increase human resource and technological capacity for disaster response Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Develop an active recruitment, retention and 5F1.1 training program for the Volunteer Firefighting FD $$ 2024 • Division and CERT team Develop/update integrated preparedness plan L 5F1.2 for training and qualifications for an Incident CD $$ — • Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 98 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to �ir Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�1►t1AL r41.T. Project Duration Action County Cost Start 2—5 Number Action Lead ($, $$, $$$) Year <2 yrs yrs >5 yrs Command System that complies with the % 4 National Incident Management System — Create/update qualifications task books for each position 2023 o — Conduct training to fill ICS positions 2024 T o Develop and maintain an information 5F1.3 management system in ArcGIS for disaster CD $$$ preparedness and response — Acquire hardware for data management and processing 2023 o — Increase human resource capacity in GIS 2024 0 — Acquire unmanned aerial system (UAS) and train and license 2026 personnel to operate for data collection — Develop capacity for pre-impact data capture and analysis to create 2025 decision-making tools and briefs — Develop capacity for collection and analysis of critical information requirements and elements of information to create the common 2025 o operation picture and situation report — Develop post-impact protocols for collecting and storing data necessary for damage assessments including potential for use of drone 2025 0 technology and IT solutions 5F1.4 Develop public information and warning policies, CD $$ • methods, and procedures for identified hazards Conduct a needs assessment that identifies gaps in coverage in the County's audible warning (sirens)system based on population as 2024 0 well as existing systems that need to be replaced and/or updated 5F1.5 Improve and expand high wind shelter capacity CD $$$ • — Conduct best available refuge area (BARA)assessments within 2024 existing facilities - Develop evacuation and sheltering protocol,policies, and procedures 2023 0 Develop distribution plan for policies and 5F1.6 procedure for logistics, management and CD $$ • resource support during disasters — Develop agreement with State, federal and private partners to 2023 0 implement the plan Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 99 AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �akII Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'rr�� Jr" Climate Action Co-Benefits Climate co-benefits describe the potential for actions to achieve multiple outcomes. In order to realize a co-benefit, each action must be planned, designed, and implemented with a conscious consideration of co-benefits. o • Integrating renewable energy and smart energy 5A1.1 —5A1.7 systems into County infrastructure will reduce 5F2.1 —5F2.6 Greenhouse Gas greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction • Upgrading and hardening public infrastructure and safety systems with an all-hazards approach and improving evacuation routes will increase County 5A1.1 — 5A1.7 capacity to remain operational during disaster events. • Building information capacity for pre-, during, and post- 5F1.3— 5F1.4 disaster events will save lives and property. • Supporting resilience hubs enables community-driven actions for greater self-reliance in response to and 561.4 recovery from disaster events. Social-Cultural • Creating a cultural resources recovery group with pre- Equity disaster protocols for restoration and preservation of 5D1.1 cultural sites will support rapid post-disaster response. • Removing tree hazards will improve public safety 5E1.1 — 5E1.2 during severe storm events. • Increasing equitable resilience to climate hazards will benefit historically marginalized and frontline All actions communities and communities that have been made vulnerable to climate change impacts. • Removal of tree hazards and revegetation with native species will improve ecosystem health, reduce 5E1.3 sediment runoff to coastal ecosystems, and decrease Environmental debris from disaster events. Protection • A well-prepared private sector that integrates disaster preparedness planning such as continuity of 5C1.1 — 5C1.2 operations plans, will recover quickly to a disaster Economic event and reduce downtime and economic losses. Resilience ruF Incorporates policies and actions in General Plan and 5A1.1 —5A1.4, Hazard Mitigation Plan 5F1.3, 5F1.4 Plan Integration Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Click yes and Storm Surge 1O Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to lip�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *d►,10y6v a Actions You Can Take cy� esl What can you do to prepare? storm surge O Protect, preserve, and restore beaches and dunes 'Fil8 Elevate homes © Retrofit your home to meet current building code standards for wind driven forces Make a list of what you can do to protect your � property protection once you receive notice of pending coastal storms O Institute warning system and develop evacuation plan /c\Lk EEI VSs t II n or Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 101 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t eakII 0p Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change pm* Q PLAN IMPLEMENTATIf1N The actions in the Cascades help the County achieve goals 2 and 3 (see below). Plan Implementation outlines how the County will accomplish goal 1, which is essential for goals 2 and 3. 0 Increase County capacity to implement climate action. 0 Reduce the County's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions Increase the resilience of County infrastructure, assets, and services to climate change impacts. Hawaii Island is already feeling the effects of climate change. While climate change touches all parts of our lives, it is not the only challenge the island faces. In order to successfully implement the actions in this plan, the County must integrate climate action into existing County processes, community partnerships, funding streams, and efforts. To do this, the County must build up the capacity of departments and community partners to include climate mitigation, risk, and adaptation into their internal and external operations and processes. This implementation section outlines the capacity and financing improvements required to execute the ICAP and the County's process for monitoring and evaluation. Implementation priority areas reflect the systems-level needs the County will address through climate action implementation. The priority area timelines reflect existing and anticipated capacity (Figure 20). IMPLEMENTATION PRIORITIES 10 SHORT-T111111111-� Rlf'...��u1 23-2025 MID-TERM 2025-2030 LONG-TERM 2030-2040 • Establish a centralized • Integrate climate change risk • Update the General Plan using lessons learned from coordinating authority to into County planning and decision- climate action implementation oversee action implementation making • Support place-based management of Hawaii Island • Establish regular stakeholder • Establish a County climate database lands and waters as part of climate action efforts engagement • Maintain robust stakeholder engagement Figure 20.Plan Implementation Priorities Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 102 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�► 'rr�� VP" County Processes The changes to processes are critical for integrating climate action into the County structures that determine policy and infrastructure. The County can accomplish changes to these processes with minimal contracting and financial investment. Process changes must align with and support existing efforts, which will provide benefits beyond climate action. boom-cern rimpaenentauuou erioriuues: (2023-2025) Establish a centralized coordinating authority to oversee and manage County-wide climate actions and mainstream interdepartmental collaboration The Integrated Climate Action Plan is a joint effort between the Departments of Planning and Research and Development. It is integral to plan success that a central coordinating authority be established to consistently engage with and provide support to other departments and community partners in their climate action implementation. The central coordinating authority must be able to: 1. Collaborate with other departments through existing County processes 2. Provide technical assistance and support to: a. Streamline climate-related data gathering and dissemination b. Conduct cost-benefit analyses for climate action implementation c. Secure federal and State funding County departments and their operations often fall into silos, limiting the amount of interdepartmental collaboration that happens to address an interdisciplinary threat like climate change. The County must continue interdepartmental collaboration on climate action. This will help the County proactively minimize exposure to climate hazards and avoid long term costs. Establish regular stakeholder engagement to increase transparency of climate action Climate Data Dashboard and Portal: Climate change information and data must be accessible to the public. The County will establish a centralized dashboard to show current progress on individual strategies and actions. This dashboard will help serve as a monitoring and implementation tool for each department to report on plan implementation targets and opportunities for collaboration. Community stakeholders could also use the data on this site for their own climate action planning. Place-Based Knowledge: The County must engage communities for place-based feedback and qualitative data to guide implementation priorities and decision making. Place-based data refers to local knowledge of place. This lived experience holds more information than captured in the Climate Change Exposure Tool or any dataset the County may use. Place-based knowledge must guide decision- making on climate action projects that may require changes in development or behavior within communities. This would include incorporating regional history from lineal descendants, indigenous practices, local values, and place-based protocols in the County's decision-making processes. Historically, the County has not incorporated these decision-making processes in its actions. Establishing partnerships and ongoing relationships with communities in implementing climate action is essential to prioritizing place-based knowledge. Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 103 AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t 11r �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *�►�'rr�� Q Promote Funding Opportunities: Accurate data is essential to access federal funds for mitigation and adaptation. A centralized repository collecting climate data will streamline the County's efforts to access these funds. Engagement Strategy: The County must actively engage with communities to increase transparency, contribute resources, and share stories. To build on existing engagement, the County will: • Attend community days and County-sponsored events to share resources and talk story • Partner with schools and after-school programs to play the Hawai'i Island Climate Action Game and develop other climate change-related materials for keiki • Produce marketing materials around climate change that can be shared in physical spaces (like grocery stores, parks, and churches) and virtual spaces (like social media) • Support existing sectors in their climate action efforts • Develop a communications strategy to inspire hope in climate communications Mid-Term Implementation Priorities: (2025-2030) Integrate climate change hazards and risk assessment into County planning and decision-making processes During the creation of the ICAP, County departments recognized that integrating climate action principles and tools into existing processes would be more effective to 1) ensure success of actions in the near-term by minimizing additional staffing and funding burdens on departments and 2) ensure that climate change becomes an integral piece of how the County approaches its work long-term. Initial processes that have been identified as opportunities for integration include: 1. Capital Improvement Project Review a. Utilize the Climate Cascade Exposure Tool to identify hazards associated with capital infrastructure and prioritize projects accordingly b. Coordinate projects between departments to improve project efficiency c. Incorporate greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a piece of capital improvement program prioritization and implementation d. Align capital improvement plans with multi-hazard mitigation plan 2. Purchasing and Procurement a. Prioritize local product purchasing to reduce emissions associated with air and marine transportation and support the local economy b. Gather detailed specifications and resources about zero emission technology options 3. Asset Management a. Procure County-wide software to digitally manage County assets to simplify the process of analyzing greenhouse gas reduction opportunities and climate change hazard exposure while streamlining efficiency of County asset management. b. Compile existing asset management data to update the Climate Cascade Exposure Tool. limate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 104 AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 1► 'rr% VA$-" 4. Budgeting for Climate Action in Operating Budget: a. Include suggestions for including climate action in Operating Budget during annual review. b. Assess how climate change will impact County financing and long-term budgetary requirements to better inform priority areas for operation budget. Key actions to assess financial risk include: i. Improving infrastructure project review processes ii. Developing longer-term financial plans iii. Describe specific co-benefits and estimate monetary value of future savings iv. Describe how budgeted items support census block groups at highest risk and historically marginalized communities, frontline communities, and communities that have been made vulnerable to climate change impacts. 5. Grant Management &Applications a. Establish interdepartmental coordinating unit to co-apply for grants and manage grant monies associated with the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and other sources of federal and state funding. 6. County Auditor a. Request that the County auditor consider climate change risks and implementation progress for designated climate actions on a 5-year basis to inform plan updates. Coordinate with departments to establish a centralized internal County climate database Mitigation: In order to measure greenhouse gas emissions, the County currently extrapolates much of its data from State and third-party datasets. By establishing a County-managed framework for data collection on our assets, we can more accurately measure the emissions of individual departments and the private sector. Accurate measurements will allow the County to establish data-based metrics for emissions mitigation and accurately measure our success in implementation. This will also direct the conversion of the County's buildings and fleet to zero emissions. Adaptation: In this plan, the best available data to identify climate hazards is used. This data was used to create a living Climate Change Exposure Tool that can be used for real-time decision-making. However, this data will need updates and improvements in the future. Hazard events, such as a landslide or wildfire, may also change the priority of some of the actions. Coordination between departments and public partners will be essential in keeping this tool up to date. Maintain robust long-term, regular stakeholder engagement State and Federal: The limitations of the County's physical and legal jurisdiction will make cross- agency collaboration more imperative across the County, State, and federal levels. As demonstrated in the Climate Action Framework, the County can impact pieces of the climate change cascade, but certain items are outside the County's jurisdiction. The County must grow partnerships with State and federal agencies to tackle the impact of invasive species, cesspools, and rising sea levels. Working with our State and federal partners for larger-scale actions is one aspect of our stakeholder engagement. Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 105 AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions t �� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change 1► ' % VA$4* Residents, Private Sector, Non-Profits and Other Stakeholders: Climate change will affect everyone, but the impacts are not felt equally among all communities, and not all communities have the same risks and vulnerabilities. Social and cultural equity and locally driven knowledge will serve as a primary determinant in how we implement climate action in a place-appropriate manner and how communities are empowered to take action that works for them. Climate action engagement and implementation will focus on actions that prioritize our historically disadvantaged communities and actions that support community services for those at the greatest risk to climate change. Key factors to be considered in prioritizing social and cultural equity are health, affordability, accessibility, community capacity, locally driven place-based preservation, accountability, and an equitable transition to green jobs. Lung-Term Implementation Priorities: (2030-2040) Update the General Plan using lessons learned from climate action implementation The best practices identified as part of the monitoring and evaluation of the ICAP will guide the climate change section of the General Plan. The County will also consider the impact of climate change as part of all sections of the General Plan. The County will use lessons learned from ICAP implementation to determine priority climate action policy areas. Support place-based management of Hawaii Island lands and waters as part of climate action efforts By 2030, the County and community aim to have more examples of place-based management and more localized data. The County will support departments and communities in collecting place-based information and developing place-based protocols. Future climate action decisions regarding management of infrastructure, parks, and other County assets should include place-based management with the support of localized climate data. The County should also encourage place- based management beyond County assets through zoning and funding such as community grants. climate Action 1-inancing Identify funding opportunities The County will increase its capacity to pursue money to finance climate actions. The federal government has recently passed legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, that increases the funding available to implement climate action. In order to access these funds, the County must have dedicated staff to write and manage grants specific to climate action. These staff members will need to work closely with the departments that will implement the actions. Increase the capacity of the Finance Department to manage ICAP implementation Increasing the capacity of the Finance Department to manage climate action monies is essential. The ICAP identifies the capital improvement program process, operations management, and procurement as opportunities to implement internal climate action. In order to do this, the Finance Department will need additional support to establish protocols that align with existing processes and priorities. The limate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 106 Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to •�� Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *•��►r� Finance Department will also need additional support to incorporate climate action into the operating budget annually. Monitoring and Evaluation Establish regular monitoring, evaluating, and annual reporting on the status of actions and targets This plan will be monitored on an ongoing basis through the previously mentioned online dashboard and will include a brief project description, project status, and project location when appropriate. Actions and targets will be updated on an annual basis and reported on to make changes where necessary and incorporate best available data. Actions under each intervention point will be tracked as: No Action, Proposed, In Progress, or Completed. Annual reports of the ICAP will include: • A summary of action adjustments that were made • Assessment of best practices for implementation • Targets reached • Evaluation of co-benefits of ICAP actions and documenting lessons Climate cascade narratives and exposure analysis will be reviewed and updated every 5 years in conjunction with the County's Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan update. This review will identify any changes in projections for climate change indicators and hazards based on the best available information. Cascading effects that have not been previously considered will be identified based on hazard projections and documented impacts. Climate cascade narratives, risk analysis, and intervention points will be updated based on this review. The annual evaluations will also be used to inform best practices for actions and implementation in the 5-year plan updates. Conduct 5-Year Plan Evaluation and Update Annual reports and evaluations will be used to determine major document changes as the ICAP is updated on a 5-year basis. This will allow for more accurate datasets, improved community engagement efforts, and updated hazard and risk analyses. Once we refine implementation strategies based on lessons learned and best practices, we can coordinate our priorities in line with updates to the Hazard Mitigation Plan. Timeframes and funding for many actions in the ICAP are integrated into other plans and projects, such as capital improvement projects, hazard mitigation projects, maintenance, purchasing policies, and policies developed in the General Plan. The ICAP identifies the actions that will contribute the most to minimizing the impacts of each climate cascade. Other actions, including infrastructure and policies, may become higher priority over time as the impacts of climate change evolve and community priorities change. Climate Cascade 5:Tropical Cyclones and Storm Surge 107 AN- Greenhouse Gas Reduction and Climate Adaptation Actions to Integrated Climate Action Plan for the Island of Hawaii Build Local Resilience to Climate Change *��W Nfr CALL TO ACTION As we face the reality of climate change, it is time for us to take action to protect our beloved island and planet. Hawaii County is committed to the ambitious goals and concrete actions in this plan. We need to take accountability as a County government for our own contribution to climate change and the resilience of our infrastructure and services. We must ensure that our services will be resilient for current and future generations in the years to come. We have the opportunity to create a thriving, vibrant Hawaii Island. We can choose how we spend our money and our time to care for people and the place where we live. The actions in this plan represent the ways all our departments are committed to create a future that is not only sustainable but also thriving in the face of the worst effects of climate change. But climate action is not just about what government can do. And it's not just about policies, processes, or infrastructure. Climate action is about what each of us can do to reduce our carbon footprint, preserve our natural resources, and ensure the resilience of our community. Climate action is about doing what we already do in our homes, our schools, our businesses, our churches, and our agriculture in a way that intentionally mitigates and adapts to climate change. Climate action is also about environmental justice. We cannot allow the burden of climate change to fall disproportionately on marginalized communities. We cannot pursue reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or climate adaptation in a way that increases the cost of living here or disproportionately impacts low- and middle-income communities. Our solutions must be equitable and just. We must ensure that, when we are pursuing each policy or infrastructure change, everyone has a voice in shaping our future. We must recognize the impact of climate change in our community and hold ourselves accountable to act. The impacts include the potential displacement of our island brothers and sisters as climate refugees. We are lucky that our island has high shores and a lot of land. Not all places will be easy or possible to inhabit as the effects of climate change intensify and cascade across all parts of our lives. We must lift up Hawaii for ourselves and also for those who may seek refuge as we all feel the effects of climate change. Let us take action now to ensure a brighter future for our island and planet. "E lauhoe mai na wa`a; i ke ka, i ka hoe; i ka hoe, i ke ka; pae aku i ka `aina." -Everybody paddle the canoes together;bail and paddle, paddle and bail, and the shore is reached Call to Action 108 Search Q Sign In (Sign Up) The Pandemic Proves Onlc t f „.4 eat better world for your Technocrats Can Sa.'r t.s I Ir,-n. loot bold pour breath for 1....1 drn1o1 ratio deliberation. ... the Leone climate tcenariol get, tha more decision-maker'will be gm(ed into rldie Al.top.down un-auucs mrnran Lp technocrats. •,.j. v not a4t'VIMS." r Para Khanna.FutureMap 1•' t. 1 WEE Young Global Leader The Incredible HI o ry of the W E E WHY Covid and Climate Ruined our World 1:10 Full History of the WEF, UN,the Climate Change Hoax, Covid-19 and the People Who Wish to Rule Us nReal Truth Real News Follow i` 227 ,l 2 t Share E Save • . 53.5K followers ®1 year ago w 28.4K deep state bill gates fauci vaccines corruption big pharma pandemic illuminati cabal new world order who Great video on the history of WEF,Rockefeller and all of the other institutions which have corrupted our world.This one needs to be shared with maximum prejudice as it fully explains Covidl9,the Climate Change Agenda,and so much more.A catastrophic loss of our freedoms will occur unless the people understand what is happening,and WHY. [- More information on the NWO/Great Reset/Agenda2030/Committee of 300 and More: https://therealtruthnetworkcom.word press.com/2022/04/20/agenda-21-nwo/ Lockstep PDF download:https://bit.ly/2DfSpLh u„ The Covid-Plan/Rockefeller's Lockstep 2010 http://www.agmiw.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Transcript-The-Covid-Plan_Rockefeller-Lockstep-2010.pdf Video source:Science Simplified-The Fat Emperor on Rumble *QQ Order Ivermectin-Hydroxychloroqine-Azithromycin (Z-Pack),Budesonide and Other Meds Online: www.BodywisePharmacy.com Q Dr.Peter McCullough Recommends"Spike Support"With Nattokinase to Dissolve the Spike Protein From the Covid Jab,You Can Find it Here:https://tinyurl.com/5n99uvjv Use Discount Code:"GAILHENDRICKS"for 10%Off at Checkout! o Dr.Zev Zelenko's Products Include"Z-Detox"For Covid Vaccine Protection-"Z-Flu"Protection Against Colds and Flu and Go Ad-Free with Rumble Premium Enjoy an ad-free viewing experience and other benefits Comments X %:— THE "� TheMonicaCrowleyPodcast MONICA 2 hours ago CROWPODCAST e The Monica Crowley Podcast:The System is Working Overtime to Stop Us 1'07:37 ` O 4.87K p 2 ' „:,"7, � ® ' I Howard Lutnick 6 hours ago 4 - — My take on Donald Trump's policies,and the launch of the FMX Futures Exhange 10:00 0 43.5K p 8 y Dr.Drew 1 day ago Mob Wives:Jenn&Renee Graziano Join Psychic Mediums Melissa Cubillas&Jae Rae-Calling Out w/Susan Pinsky-Ep 152 ,l 1:15:05 021.7K p6 DI The Dilley Show 5 hours ago Kamala Talks and Polling Drops!w/Author Brenden Dilley 09/26/2024 / rt 1NAM X'-'w 2:17:25' O 22.3K p 27 `7.4* Russell Brand �':. 6 hours ago HIGH ALERT!Biden Delivers WARMONGERING RANT At The UN,RAMPS UP WW3 With Russia&China-SF461 :w 48:35 - O 138K p 206 Ii The New American 3 hours ago The New American Daily I Secret Service not Cooperating with Investigation SECRET SERs^r° 1:35:20 O 12.2K p 5 AFRAIOES PEAK ARE Winston Marshall D 4 hours ago "This Is Deeply Concerning”We're Seeing The FALL of Britain I The Winston Marshall Show#028 ", 1:27:58 O 42K p 24 #028'SUNIL SHARMA r.R F1 s The Boomer Effect - 1 day ago Millennials Anxious to Take On Leadership Roles B an 0 15.7K Areca lc;IP. TheAlecLaceShow --1 W. 5 hours ago Vindicating Trump I Guest:Dinesh D'Souza I Kamala Interview Fail I Eric Adams Indicted I Alec Lace 1:41:13 O 25.5K p 11 Go Ad-Free with Rumble Premium Enjoy an ad-free viewing experience and other benefits Comments rumble Go Ad-Free with Rumble Premium Enjoy an ad-free viewing experience and other benefits '% �w United Nations A/79/L.3 itrl �,) General Assembly Distr.: Limited N1�►JV 20 September 2024 Original: English Seventy-ninth session Agenda item 123 Strengthening of the United Nations system Belarus, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Nicaragua, Russian Federation and Syrian Arab Republic:* amendment to draft resolution A/79/L.2 The Pact for the Future After paragraph 17, insert the following paragraph: We reaffirm that the United Nations shall be driven by intergovernmental decision-making process and that the United Nations and its system shall not intervene in matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any State as provided in Article 2 (7) of the Charter of the United Nations and request the Secretary-General to evaluate the United Nations, its funds and programmes on compliance with this duty, as well as duplication of efforts, in particular as a result of the adoption of this Pact, and submit to the General Assembly at its eightieth session proposals on avoiding such duplication while achieving maximum resource efficiency. Any changes to the list of sponsors will be reflected in the official record of the meeting. k7F, El 24-17209E 210924 n. 1111111111111 Illi 1111111111111111111 Please recycle 0 5;D urea AV United Meetings Coverage and Press Releases 4 Nations Meetings Coverage General Assembly/Plenary SEVENTY-NINTH SESSION, 3RD&4TH MEETINGS(AM&PM) GA/12627 22 September 2024 World Leaders Pledge Bold Action to Protect Present, Future Generations amid Climate Crisis, Conflicts Gripping Globe, as General Assembly Adopts Pact for Future Today the General Assembly adopted the Pact for the Future,in which Heads of State and Government— representing the peoples of the world—made 56 pledges to action seeking to protect the needs and interests of present and future generations amid the climate change,crisis and conflict currently gripping the globe. Nevertheless,at the outset of the meeting,the representative of the Russian Federation proposed an amendment(document A/79/L.3)to the Pact,stating that"no one is happy with this text". That amendment proposed the addition of language relating to the United Nations'intervention in"matters which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any State"and to avoiding certain duplication of effort. However,the representative of the Republic of the Congo,speaking for the African Group,underscored the need to show unity in finding solutions to today's multiple,complex challenges. The adoption of such an amendment"is not going to help us meet our expectations",he stressed,proposing a motion that no action be taken on the draft amendment. That motion was adopted by a recorded vote of 143 in favour to 7 against (Belarus,Democratic People's Republic of Korea,Iran,Nicaragua,Russian Federation,Sudan,Syria),with 15 abstentions. The Assembly then adopted the resolution titled"The Pact for the Future"(document A/79/L.2)without a vote. In the Pact's opening terms,the Assembly committed to bold,ambitious,accelerated,just and transformative actions to implement the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and to place the eradication of poverty at the centre of the efforts to do that. By other terms,world leaders pledged to close the Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)financing gap in developing countries,to ensure that the multilateral trading system continues to be an engine for sustainable development and to accelerate reform of the international financial architecture to strengthen the voice and representation of developing countries.The Assembly also committed to reform the Security Council, recognizing the urgent need to make it more representative,inclusive,transparent,efficient,effective, democratic and accountable.The Pact also contains terms relating to gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls,as well as a commitment to promote,protect and respect the human rights of all young people. Further,the Pact has two annexes,the first of which—the Global Digital Compact—outlines the objectives of closing all digital divides;fostering an inclusive,open,safe and secure digital space that respects,protects and promotes human rights;and enhancing international governance of artificial intelligence. In the second annex —Declaration on Future Generations—the Assembly adopted a set of guiding principles,commitments and actions to promote international stability,peace and security and to ensure peaceful,inclusive and just societies while addressing inequalities within and among nations and the special needs of developing countries,as well as people in vulnerable situations. "Our future is in our hands,"emphasized Philemon Yang(Cameroon),President of the General Assembly at its seventy-ninth session,following the Pact's adoption. The document represents a pledge to address immediate crises and lay the foundation for a sustainable,just and peaceful global order for all peoples and nations.Underscoring the need to ensure a future where peace transcends the mere absence of conflict and is grounded in justice,inclusion and equity,he said that meaningful progress requires that all voices are heard and that all nations—regardless of size or wealth—have a seat at the table. Antonio Guterres,Secretary-General of the United Nations,then noted that he called for the Summit of the Future"because our world is heading off the rails"as"resources that could bring opportunities and hope are invested in death and destruction". Stating that the international community has"unlocked the door"by adopting the Pact and its annexes,he urged: "Now it is our common responsibility to walk through it." Ultimately,however,"we stand and fall not by adopting agreements—but by our actions and their impact on the lives of the people we serve",he concluded. Olaf Scholz,Chancellor of Germany—the Pact's co-facilitator,along with Namibia—also urged those present to take steps towards a more peaceful,fairer world,stating that,while"the road ahead is rocky",history will judge Member States for their commitment to the plan at hand.Nangolo Mbumba,President of Namibia, added that the world is at a crossroads. One path leads to environmental catastrophe,widening inequality, global conflict,destruction and the rise of dangerous technology that threatens peoples'security and civil liberties;the other,to peace,the eradication of poverty and hunger and the responsible harnessing of digital technologies for the benefit of humanity. When the floor opened,more than 70 countries—many of whom were represented at the highest level— took the podium to underscore the urgent need for renewed action if the international community is to meet the targets it has set for itself. Speakers also called for sustainable financing for development,investment in women and youth and a more-representative United Nations. Proliferating global conflicts also courted discussion in this context,as many speakers stressed that development cannot be achieved without a strong foundation of peace,security and stability. Among them was Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al-Thani,Prime Minister of Qatar,who said that his country—to that end—is involved in many mediation efforts. This includes Qatar's work with Egypt and the United States to end the catastrophic war in Gaza. Diplomacy and dialogue are critical for achieving peace,said Mohammed Shia'al Sudani,Prime Minister of Iraq,noting his country's focus on promoting international relations based on mutual respect. Nevertheless,Lazarus McCarthy Chakwera,President of Malawi,said that the world is not likely to meet the SDG targets because"we seem more interested in moving with speed in destroying the future than we are in replenishing". Similarly,To Lam,President of Viet Nam,urged: "We need to shift our focus from investing in destructive weapons to enhancing health care and education." The international community,stressed Viola Amherd,President of Switzerland,must work together"to ensure that our common future is not determined exclusively by national self-interest". Tshering Tobgay,Prime Minister of Bhutan,concurred: "We must prioritize policies that serve the common good over narrow interests." Ultimately,implementation of the words within the Pact is what matters,pointed out Alar Karis,President of Estonia,adding:"Perhaps we cannot achieve perfection,but we must ensure that we save people from war, famine,torture and injustice." Wave!Ramkalawan,President of the Seychelles,urged that"we cannot afford to make commitments to strengthen global cooperation"on various issues"only to see them diluted in implementation". Calling for"a world where the multilateral system is not resolution after resolution,gathering dust"—but a dynamic force—Mohamed Muizzu,President of the Maldives,stressed that it is time for the multilateral system to produce tangible results. "We do not have time to waste,"stressed Sadyr Zhaparov,President of Kyrgyzstan,urging"decisive"action to strengthen the connections between nations and forge global partnerships to address challenges such as forced migration,climate threats and the unjust distribution of resources. Stressing that"inaction is not an option", Chandrikapersad Santokhi,President of Suriname,pointed to Caribbean nations'lack of financial resources to invest in health,education and infrastructure due to external debt. The failure to share global resources will continue to drive humanity to war,social disintegration and migration and"condemn us to live in two separate worlds",added Mia Amor Mottley,Prime Minister of Barbados. "The future is not distant,"stressed Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo,President of Ghana—"it is here,and the choices we make here will determine the fate of generations to come." No nation,regardless of power,can solve today's challenges alone,he stated.Noting that today's problems are"too extreme,too global to be addressed in isolated effort",Edi Rama,Prime Minister of Albania,urged delegations that"multilateralism is not a choice—it is an urgent necessity". "On the one hand,"concluded Justin Trudeau,Prime Minister of Canada,"we can bury our heads in the sand, eschewing multilateralism in favour of short-sighted self-interest;or,we can recognize that—collectively—we have a responsibility to set our differences aside." Action Prior to the opening segment,the representative of the Russian Federation introduced amendment A/79/L.3 to resolution A/79/L.2 titled by the same name,"The Pact for the Future",stressing that there is nothing of substance to adopt today. But that is not the fault of the current President of the General Assembly and his predecessor. "They inherited this problem from previous predecessors,and did all they could,but didn't have enough time,"he added. The Russian Federation requested sitting down and discussing the problem at the same table,but that idea was shut down. "This cannot be called multilateralism,"he continued,also adding that: "What happened is a major defeat for the UN principles of the sovereign[and]equality of States enshrined in the Charter." This was sacrificed for the interest of a certain group of countries.What about the principle of"Leaving No One Behind"?he asked. "Essentially,no one is happy with this text"he emphasized.It would have would have been optimal not to put forward this non-consensus-based test,but to continue negotiations until this document finally is acceptable to all. He went on to say that the amendment proposed by him today is not ignoring the needs of the Global South but trying to protect them from pressure from the collective West,which has not honoured its previous obligations. And"now they are hiding behind the backs"of the Global South. He urged all delegations to vote for the amendment. The representative of the Republic of the Congo,speaking on behalf of the African Group,stated: "It is our collective responsibility to ensure and guarantee a better future for current and future generations." The international community is now at a crossroads that will define our common future,he observed,underscoring the need to show unity and find answers to multiple complex challenges faced today. The adoption of the proposed amendment"is not going to help us meet our expectations",he added. The representative of Mexico seconded the motion of no action and urged all Member States to vote in favour of the motion. He pointed out that the amendment"was never raised during negotiations",preventing proper consideration by delegations.Although his country had hoped to propose amendments on issues that represent "a priority"for Mexico's foreign policy,he stressed that the current text lays"the foundation for the future work of the Organization". The delegate of Cameroon then took the floor to express his support for the motion introduced by Congo on behalf of the African Group. The representative of Venezuela,speaking also on behalf of Iran and Syria opposed the motion for no action introduced by Congo,describing it as a"procedural manoeuvre"that reflects"the arrogant view of certain Western States"during the negotiation process. Noting the lack of consensus on the Pact for the Future due to "the lack of political willingness of those same countries to enter into good faith negotiations over the last 18 months",he urged Member States to reject the motion for no action and vote in favour of the amendment contained in document A/79/L.3. The representative of Belarus requested the Assembly examine the substance of the amendment contained in document"L.3". The Assembly then took a recorded vote on the motion submitted by the representative of Congo,that no action be taken on draft amendment"L.3". The motion was adopted by a recorded vote of 143 in favour to 7 against(Belarus,Democratic People's Republic of Korea,Iran,Nicaragua,Russian Federation,Sudan,Syria),with 15 abstentions. The Assembly then took action on the resolution titled"Pact for the Future"contained in document"L.2", adopting it without a vote. Statements PHILEMON YANG(Cameroon),President of the General Assembly,said: "Our future is in our hands" With the power to make important choices for the future,"we stand at a crossroads of global transformation,facing unprecedented challenges that demand urgent,collective action". From conflict and climate change to the digital divide,from inequalities to threats against human rights,humanity faces profound challenges. "Yet, alongside these challenges,there is hope,"he stressed,as challenges come along with the opportunity for renewal,innovation and global cooperation. The Pact of the Summit of the Future represents the pledge to address immediate crises and lay the foundations for a sustainable,just and peaceful global order for all peoples and nations. The commitments embodied in the Pact and its annexes must encourage the international community to promote international peace and security,invigorate the implementation of Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),foster just and inclusive societies and ensure that technology always serves the common good of humankind.= "We must move forward,together,in a spirit of solidarity and multilateral cooperation,"he said,citing the Summit of the Future as"a call to action"that"recommits us to the principles of international law,the goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the promise of the United Nations Charter to save future generations from the pain of war". He underscored the need to ensure a future where peace transcends the mere absence of conflict and is grounded in justice,inclusion and equity. Meaningful progress requires that all voices are heard and that all nations—regardless of size or wealth—have a seat at the table. Also,he continued,it is vital to recognize that none of the SDGs will be achieved without the full participation of women and girls as well as young people—"the torchbearers of tomorrow". This is especially true in Africa,where more young people will enter the workforce each year than in the rest of the world combined. "Together,let us rise to this moment with courage and determination as we accelerate our journey towards a brighter future for everyone,everywhere,"he concluded. ANTONIO GUTERRES,Secretary-General of the United Nations,delivering opening remarks,emphasizing the urgent need to"bring multilateralism back from the brink",said that he called for the Summit of the Future to "to consider deep reforms,to make global institutions more legitimate,fair and effective". "I called for this summit because our world is heading off the rails—and we need tough decisions to get back on track,"he underscored. Highlighting the multiple challenges of the twenty-first century—ranging from multiplying conflicts to huge inequalities and fragile collective security—he warned that"resources that could bring opportunities and hope are invested in death and destruction". "Our multilateral tools and institutions are unable to respond effectively to today's political,economic,environmental and technological challenges,"he underscored,cautioning: "And tomorrow's will be even more difficult and dangerous." The Security Council"is eroding"in credibility due to its outdated structure,and the international financial architecture—designed during the colonial era—no longer addresses today's economic challenges,including debt and climate action,he said. Against this backdrop,he underscored the urgency of reforms,stating that "we cannot wait for perfect conditions"and that now is the time for decisive action to make international cooperation"more networked,fair and inclusive", He went on to introduce three key agreements—the Pact for the Future,the Global Digital Compact and the Declaration on Future Generations—praising them as steps towards"more effective,inclusive,networked multilateralism towards reforming multilateralism". He noted that these agreements"open pathways to new possibilities",including reforms to the Security Council and international financial architecture."We have unlocked the door. Now it is our common responsibility to walk through it,"he said,urging Member States to take action and implement these agreements. "We stand and fall not by adopting agreements,but by our actions and their impact on the lives of the people we serve,"he concluded. To this end,the Summit of the Future,he emphasized,sets the course for a new era of international cooperation that can meet expectations of the people. GHANIM MOHAMMED AL MUFTAH,United Nations youth representative from Qatar and a political science graduate,said that the decisions made today are not just about policies and strategies. They are about shaping a world where all children can thrive in an inclusive,safe and sustainable future. "As a person with disability,I have learned that true progress comes not from overcoming personal challenges alone,but from how we,as a society,embrace each other's differences,"he said. Sadly,there is no choice for children where wars and conflicts cause unnecessary injuries and life-long disabilities. It is in our hands to stop this global trend of violence,in Gaza and around the world."The future belongs to our youth and we must ensure that they are prepared to take on leadership roles,"he said. NIRIA ALICIA GARCIA,United Nations youth representative from the United States,said: "Our Mother Earth is hurting"—worldwide,water and sacred places are being desecrated,and corporate greed and war are pushing life to the verge of extinction. Global governance and politics are void of spirituality morality,and basic respect for life. "My generation's hearts are breaking as we survive the impacts of climate disaster that could have been prevented[...]as we watch genocide of our Palestinian relatives live on our phones,despite the global call fora ceasefire,"she said.The Pact for the Future mentions words like"sustainable development"nearly 300 times,yet words like"children","Earth"and"future generations"are mentioned less than 60 times."This is green colonialism and it needs to stop,"she asserted,pointing to zero mentions of plants and animals or Indigenous Peoples'rights. "Do Indigenous People still not exist to you,"she asked,adding that their continued exclusion will inevitably lead to more destruction,pain and suffering.Yet,there is hope to create real intergenerational solutions,she emphasized,calling on global leaders to"go home and ratify the UN declaration on the rights of Indigenous Peoples[...]begin to meaningfully engage youth,cut the military budget and allocate those funds for climate solutions,to pay reparations[...]and give Indigenous People our land back". MONICAH MALITH,a youth refugee from South Sudan,said that the escalating refugee crises is among"the most pressing issues"facing the world caused by lack of peace and security. Reflecting on her own journey as a refugee from South Sudan,she spoke about the educational opportunities she received in Kenya,which enabled her to receive a law degree and"stand as a voice for the youth—for refugees,and for all those forgotten". Noting that the plight of refugees underscores the collective responsibility,she urged to provide them with"not just immediate assistance but also long-term,compassionate solutions"to uphold their dignity and enable their meaningful contribution to society. She stressed the importance of education as a tool for progress,urging Governments and stakeholders to"think big on funding for education". In a call for action for leaders,she warned that while Governments talk of reforms,"the gaps are growing wider still". Therefore, future deliberations should"not be rehearsed platitudes,but revolutions of thoughts",she stressed.Addressing the youth,she stated that"the future is ours to forge.[...]It belongs to the bold." OLAF SCHOLZ,Chancellor of Germany,said that the Pact for the Future can serve as a compass towards cooperation instead of conflict. The Pact shows determination to restore international justice and that all the talk of polarization will not be the story of the United Nations. "We are still committed to the principles of the United Nations Charter,"he added.The text is the achievement of the countless men and women who overcome fatigue and political and ideological divides."You have proved that multilateralism is alive,"he said, urging Member States to take steps towards a world that is peaceful,a world that is fairer. History will judge Member States if they do not commit to the plan at hand."The road ahead is rocky,"he added,emphasizing that Germany stands ready to extend its hand to anyone willing to work together towards a better future. NANGOLO MBUMBA,President of Namibia reiterated the commitment to the current and future generations —a world where all peoples and countries are prosperous,more loving,inclusive and tolerant—noting that this summit presents a historic opportunity. The world is at a crossroads—one path leads to environmental catastrophe,widening inequality and leading to global conflict,destruction and the rise of dangerous technology that threatens peoples'security and civil liberty. The other path offers hope for climate change, global peace,the eradication of poverty and hunger,and the responsible harnessing of digital technologies for the benefit of humanity. To this end,he underscored the need to reform international organizations,including the Security Council. The UN must empower nations and regions to adopt comprehensive pathways to ensure economic prosperity, strengthen global agreements and institutions to ensure the effective implementation of the SDGs and finance these goals through innovative global financing architecture. "We need the UN,"because at the heart of the institution is the principle of global solutions to global problems,he observed,recognizing the profound significance of this summit for the future. JULIUS MAADA BIO,President of Sierra Leone,speaking on behalf of the Group of Seven-Plus(G7+)countries, said that the Summit represents a key moment for"reflection,collective action and renewed commitment"to build a"sustainable,just and equitable future". For the G7+countries,the challenges of instability are not distant—they are"the stark reality that we contend with every day". He noted that the"Summit of the Future has offered us an opportunity to adopt the Pact of the Future",a road map for a"more inclusive,secure and sustainable world". Against this backdrop,he stressed that peace and development"must be driven from within",and efforts to address fragility should be grounded in dialogue,reconciliation and inclusive governance. Highlighting the importance of promoting sustainable development in conflict-affected countries, he noted that progress is hindered by persistent challenges of fragility. Therefore,he called for"increased international cooperation,innovative financing mechanisms and tailored approaches"to ensure no country is left behind. He further emphasized that"international peace and security form the bedrock of global development",and for countries recovering from conflict,strengthening institutions,promoting the rule of law and addressing root causes remain essential. RASHAD MOHAMMED AL-ALIMI,President of Yemen,said his country has suffered from war,but its aspirations are still unified with the people of the world because Yemen believes in a global collaboration toward a prosperous future for all. Despite the grave challenges faced by the Yemeni people,they remain steadfast in confronting Iran-backed militias destabilizing their country. "We are trying to confront violent and extremism," he added,emphasizing that the Yemeni generation born into conflict deserve to live in a peaceful and prosperous country. For that reason,Yemen has launched programmes that benefit women and young people aimed at boosting their development. Yemen is also working with the international community to come up with a strategy to end the conflict and deal with its humanitarian and climate challenges such as drought. LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA,President of Brazil highlighted"great responsibilities to those who will succeed us": to not back down from the promotion of equality between men and women and the fight against racism and all forms of discrimination.Also,he stressed,"we cannot live with nuclear threats again,nor fuel new arms races on Earth or in space",noting that it is unacceptable to regress to a world divided into ideological borders or zones of influence. Naturalizing the hunger of 733 million people would be shameful,he added. For its part, Brazil will promote a global ethical stocktaking,bringing together different civil society sectors to think about climate action from the perspective of justice,equity and solidarity.The Pact for the Future addresses essential topics—such as the debt of developing countries and international taxation—in a groundbreaking manner. Calling for structural transformations,he stressed that the legitimacy of the Security Council shrinks every time it applies double standards or remains silent in the face of atrocities. Also,he pointed out,the Global South is not represented in a way that is consistent with its current political,economic and demographic weight. LAZARUS MCCARTHY CHAKWERA,President of Malawi,said that the world is not likely to meet the SDG targets, because"we seem more interested in moving with speed in destroying the future than we are in replenishing". Underscoring that"the old men and women in this Assembly"have the responsibility to build solutions for a future they will not inherit,he called for making the Pact for the Future free of past prejudices and today's conflicts. "Sustainable development is untenable without sustainable financing,"he stressed,calling for financing that is affordable and will catalyse global development in developing countries. Expressing concern over unresolved global conflicts,he asserted that"no one in this room should still cling to the naive illusion that we live in a world where a war can be won",calling for a rules-based approach and peaceful dispute resolutions. In Malawi,and across Africa,the youth"are not just our future,but our present",he underscored, urging for investment in technical skills and youth potential to harness the Fourth Industrial Revolution. He went on to reiterate the call for"a UN that is fit for the future through fair representation and enhanced capacity to deal with complicated global challenges fit for the future". SADYR ZHAPAROV,President of Kyrgyzstan,said that,to build strong bridges between the past and the future, "we must strengthen the connections between nations". In that regard,the Summit of the Future is an important platform to rethink global partnerships focused on addressing various challenges,such as the spike in forced migration,climate threats and the unjust distribution of resources. "We must take decisive action as soon as possible;we do not have time to waste,"he stressed. Kyrgyzstan has made progress in eradicating poverty and its successful experience with the SDGs only shows that with the right vision and political will,even small countries with limited resources can achieve mighty goals. The world being built today will become the source of hopes and dreams of generations to come,he added. "We cannot leave here without taking decisive action,"he said. CYRIL RAMAPHOSA,President of South Africa said world conflicts and the spectre of emerging conflict are "ever-persistent features of our times".Climate change poses an existential threat and reverses development goals in numerous parts of the world.These challenges transcend borders,he said,underscoring the need to forge global solutions that are embedded in the Pact,which presents a great opportunity to reinvigorate the multilateral system so that it is fit to address global challenges. Underlining the need to reform the global governance architecture,he observed that placing the fate of the world's security of a select few—where it is the vast majority of the peoples of the world who bear the brunt of various threats—is unsustainable and unjust. The Summit is an opportunity to make progress on the SDGs,realize the fundamental right to development and accelerate the collective effort to advance development,he said,declaring: "Action is what is required now." JOSEPH NYUMA BOAKAI,President of Liberia said that following peaceful elections in his country,the Government has introduced an ambitious agenda focusing on agriculture,rule of law,education,sanitation and tourism.Despite facing challenges in making progress towards the SDGs,Liberia remains determined and dedicated to overcoming these obstacles,he said. Citing the 2024 Financing for Sustainable Development Report,he drew attention to the fact that least developed countries are now spending"12 per cent of their revenues on interest payments"—four times more than a decade ago—stressing the urgent need for reform in the global financial system. To accelerate the progress on the SDG achievement,he called for a transformation of global governance and"for a financial system that prioritizes liquidity and reduces the burden of development nation for a financial system". "By promoting international cooperation and accountability,we can create a fairer financial environment that empowers our countries to pursue their development goals,"he emphasized. He went on to urge the international community"work together to remove the barriers that hinder potential and enable us to advance our shared vision for sustainable development". ALAR KARIS,President of Estonia said that the Pact of the Future is a document of words;how it is going to be implemented is what matters. The world has witnessed brutal aggression in recent years,including from a permanent member of the Security Council. To deter crimes against humanity and war crimes,all Member States must demand accountability from Security Council to make sure no one can shield themselves from punishment of their own crimes with the veto. "Let us make every effort from additional finance to capacity- building to bridge divides between countries,"he said. Women and girls must have equal footing to step into the future."Perhaps we cannot achieve perfection,but we must ensure that we save people from war,famine, torture and injustice,"he added. Non-stop hard work is needed,even if results are not immediate. NANA ADDO DANKWA AKUFO-ADDO,President of Ghana,said"the future is not distant: it is here,and the choices we make here will determine the fate of generations to come". No nation,no matter how powerful,can solve today's challenges alone,he stressed,adding that the climate crisis,inequality,pandemics,terrorism and violent extremism are not local problems—they demand global solutions. At the heart of today's crisis is the climate emergency,which threatens humanity's very existence. Africa—while contributing the least to global emissions—bears the heaviest burden: from floods to desertification,it is already experiencing its devastating effects. Despite the promises,the vulnerable remain abandoned."We are told to adapt and be resilient,but how does one adapt to famine or build resilience when farmers cannot predict the seasons?",he asked, underscoring that the continent cannot continue to pay for a crisis it did not create. "We demand fairness,not charity,"he asserted,adding that climate justice requires an economic system that works for everyone,not just the privileged few.The multilateral system,especially the United Nations,should be at the forefront of this effort,he stressed,calling for the reform of the Security Council to ensure that Africa's voice is heard in shaping the future of global peace and security. DENIS BECIROVIC,Chairman of the Presides y of Bosnia and Herzegovina,said that global challenges can only be addressed through good quality international cooperation. Therefore,it is"imperative to establish a strong multilateral system based on inclusiveness",he stressed. "We can only create a world of security,justice and prosperity through joint work,solidarity and mutual respect,"he underscored,urging for concrete actions to ensure peace and stability for future generations. The Pact for the Future is very necessary at this time of crisis for democracy and multilateralism,he asserted,adding that"the character of today's challenges clearly identifies the path of our response"."That is why multilateralism is the best response,"he underscored. Noting that the future belongs to the young generations,he advocated for the"concrete involvement"of young people in the shaping of policies at the national and global level. He further called for"concrete and comprehensive implementation"of the adopted Pact for the Future,adding that"the Summit is opening a new chapter in a process of strengthening multilateralism that is needed to all of us." TO LAM,President of Viet Nam,said that decisions made today will shape the landscape of the future."We need to shift our focus from investing in destructive weapons to enhancing health care and education,"he added.That will help future generations be better able to commit to peace and prosperity rather than war and destruction.At this critical juncture,strengthening solidarity and mutual respect among Member States is essential. The world's wealthiest countries must act responsibly and must be willing to share science and technology advancements to foster collective growth. Joint efforts and collective action are what is urgently needed to implement the Pact for the Future. For its part,Viet Nam is committed to working towards those goals and building a brighter future for all. MOHAMED MUIZZU,President of Maldives,called for"a world where the multilateral system is not resolution after resolution,gathering dust",but a dynamic force. Noting that visions crafted at the UN often remain unrealized,he stressed that it is time for the multilateral system to produce tangible results. "We must empower our young people who shape the world today and will lead the world tomorrow,"he said,adding that an enabling environment is"key to true empowerment". To this end,it is vital to ensure that every young person has access to the latest technology and enable the youth to seize the opportunity before them.Additionally,he underscored the need to combat climate change,noting that climate anxiety is not"a hypothetical term". He said the Summit should honour a previous commitment to the world's oceans and marine resources,adding that financing is the key to turning aspirations into reality. CHANDRIKAPERSAD SANTOKHI,President of Suriname,said the international community must act now,with urgency,to make this world a better place. "Inaction is not an option,"he stressed. Highlighting multiple existential threats facing the Caribbean,including his country,he drew attention to the lack of financial resources to invest in critical sectors,such as health,education and infrastructure. This is due to the external debts faced by these countries. "The global financial system continues to disadvantage,and at times alienate, these nations,"he noted,expressing hope that the multidimensional vulnerability index will be adopted in the work of international financial institutions. Noting that the 2030 Agenda remains a blueprint for his country,he pointed out uneven and alarmingly slow progress. Urging the countries to accelerate efforts to meet the SDGs, he underscored the importance of providing assistance to small and vulnerable nations,while recognizing that "the principal obstacles to growth and progress are not of their doing". "We must transition from fragmented and divisive approaches to comprehensive,inclusive and transparent global rule-based governance structures," he said,calling for a strengthened multilateral system. JOSE MARIA NEVES,President of Cabo Verde said that the world is facing challenges that are increasingly global with consequences that are disproportionately affecting the world's most vulnerable. The absence of peace and security has been exacerbated by the proliferation of wars of aggression,inter-State conflict and acts of terrorism across all continents.On the other hand,even where war is absent,instances of political tensions, unconstitutional seizures of power and human rights violations have been increasing. Unequal access to the benefits of science,technology and innovation,are major global challenges that are holding back true development.Reform in the Security Council is essential to making it more effective and world more inclusive. "Nevertheless,it is equally important to underline that our commitment to reforming multilateral governance cannot and should not distract us or relive us from what we must do at the national and regional levels,"he said. Among those goals must be strengthening rule of law,upholding inclusive societies and deepening democratic practice. VIOLA AMHERD,President of Switzerland,underscored that to drive forward the necessary reforms,it is vital to ensure a strong political will and rebuild trust. The Pact is proving to bean essential and clear signal of commitment to the multilateral system,she said,noting the need to work together"to ensure that our common future is not determined exclusively by national self-interest"."Now is the time to act with even more determination,"she asserted,stressing that"multilateralism needs this,and we need multilateralism". She underlined her country's firm commitment to the values of multilateralism and determination to continue on the path towards a more sustainable,just and peaceful world. KHURELSUKH UKHNAA,President of Mongolia,said that the documents adopted today—the Pact for the Future,Declaration on the Future Generations and the Global Digital Compact—mark"a significant milestone in reaffirming our shared goals and political aspirations during these challenging times". Stressing the importance of"strengthening multilateral cooperation",he described it as"vital for ensuring international peace and security". Enhanced dialogue,mutual understanding and trust are the"fundamentals for global stability and coexistence",he said,voicing confidence that the Summit of the Future will advance the SDGs. Highlighting his country's efforts in preparation for the Summit,he recalled the successful hosting of the World Women's Forum,themed"Towards a Green Future",which resulted in the adoption of the Ulaanbaatar Declaration"Towards a Sustainable Future". WAVEL RAMKALAWAN,President of Seychelles,said the stakes at this summit cannot be emphasized enough."We cannot afford to make commitments to strengthen global cooperation on climate action, sustainable development and equitable access to resources only to see them diluted in implementation,"he said. The harsh truth is that,despite ambitions,there is a real risk that these commitments will fall short continuing to marginalize those who are already most at risk,shutting them out of the very decision-making processes that shape the future.Addressing the digital divide is just as crucial as this inequality threatens to widen the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Strong partnerships are vital to ensuring equitable access to the technologies and infrastructure that underpin modern development. These efforts must be supported by resilient multilateral institutions,international cooperation,global solidarity and shared responsibility,as no nation can tackle these immense challenges alone. HASSANAL BOLKIAH, . .i . B _1 D. . , ,o,recalled that the UN has navigated the rise and fall of empires,and the impact of natural hazards and pandemics. Amid these difficulties,its core humanitarian principles"have remained our guiding light as we confront new and emerging global challenges",he said, adding that only through global peace can humankind achieve remarkable advancements in technology, medicine and infrastructure. The Summit reinforces the commitment that no one is left behind,firmly anchored in the values that define our shared humanity. Underscoring that the current international peace landscape is at a critical juncture—with persistent conflicts and diplomatic impasses testing the resilience of global cooperation—he said that"together,we can transform our collective vision into a vibrant reality for ourselves and for generations to come". MICHAEL D.HIGGINS,President of Ireland,emphasized that in the face of existential challenges,it is"not sufficient nor morally acceptable"to offer superficial solutions. Instead,the urgency of the situation calls for authenticity by"matching words to actions"to rebuild trust. "Never have so many had so little and so few accumulated so much without responsibility,"he said,adding that these challenges are"the consequences of a globalization from above,led by the powerful,without transparency,without consideration as to social justice or ecological consequences"."A new,inclusive globalization from below"is a response needed"to achieve a new invigorated United Nations".In envisaging a United Nations of the future,he urged to have the courage to look at not only current weaknesses,but at"abuses of power"that have consciously undermined the Organization since its founding. Pointing out the 3.2 billion people who live in countries where more is spent on debt interest payments than on basic services,he underscored the urgency of eliminating hunger and poverty, calling for"the few"States to"indicate their willingness to change"to avoid the"horrific consequences of climate change"and"prevent the conclusion that,as a species,we have failed to the achieve peace". CHARLES MICHEL,President of the European Council,speaking on behalf of the European Union delegation, said that finding the best way to tackle common challenges is the"shared mission of our generation",and this summit is a unique moment to boost that ambition. "We must urgently reform our international financial architecture,"he said,calling for Member States to fulfil past commitments. The Union,together with its member States,is at the forefront of global development financing. "We cannot accept that low-and middle- income countries must choose between fighting poverty and fighting climate change,"he said. They must be able to do both. The Pact for the Future sends a powerful signal of confidence that"despite our differences, despite the challenges we face,we can work together,and we want to work together",he said. CESAR BERNARDO AREVALO DE LEON,President of Guatemala,said the Pact of the Future should allow the international community to address challenges and shortcomings in the global governance system and recommit to building a multinational order. Spotlighting challenges faced by developing and least developed countries—including those related to development and climate change—he underlined the importance of applying the principle of effective geographic representation. Further,he stressed the need to address the problem of sovereign debts and comply with international law and treaties. Turning to the situation in Gaza,he criticized the Council's inability to stop the aggression,adding that double standards should not be applied in international law. EDI RAMA,Prime Minister of Albania,called for the courage to admit that"our actions have too often fallen far short of the expectations of the people we claim to serve." As the international community has"consistently squandered the opportunities each crisis has presented for meaningful change",he asked what can be done to rebuild the trust. "How do we inspire instead of demoralize the ordinary people?"he further asked.Noting that the world has changed dramatically and"seems to have lost any common sense',he stressed that the United Nations"remains irreplaceable". "This is where we must begin",he asserted,adding that"multilateralism is not a choice;it is an urgent necessity"in tackling deeply interconnected global challenges. Noting that today's problems"are too extreme,too global to be addressed in isolated effort",he cited his country's history of standing up for humanity,from protecting Jews during the Second World War to sheltering thousands of Afghans after the fall of Kabul. MOHAMMED SHIA'AL SUDAN!,Prime Minister of Iraq,said that achieving balance between the three pillars of sustainable development is his country's priority. However,addressing Iraq's myriad challenges requires effective cooperation. "We are providing investments to ensure economic diversification,"he added.Iraq is cognizant of the fact that sustainable development will require ambitious investment in the future. Iraq is also focused on promoting international relations based on the principles of mutual respect. Diplomacy and dialogue are critical in achieving peace. He went on to underscore the role of science and technology as a foundation of sustainable development. Youth are the driving force of the future and Iraq is providing them an environment conducive to help promote their development. He pledged Baghdad's commitment to working with the international community for a better future. MIA AMOR MOTTLEY,Prime Minister of Barbados,said: "We come together as one human family,sharing one planet and building together a common future." She underscored the importance of interconnectedness in taking decisive steps to end the horrors faced by humanity and create new structures. Past generations ended wars,dismantled slavery,ended apartheid,acted to stop genocide,declared all people equal,gave women the right to vote and ended colonialism. It is vital to change the global governance structures rooted in the outcome of the Second World War,she pointed out,stressing that"what the world needs now is a reset". The failure to share the world's resources will continue to drive humanity to war,social disintegration and migration and"condemn us to live in two separate worlds"."Now is the time to choose hope and love over hate and division,"she said,adding that this does not require new technologies but action and humanity. "We,the people of the world,have no other choice and no other planet to live,"she concluded. NTSOKOANE SAMUEL MATEKANE,Prime Minister of Lesotho,said that the time has come to reflect on"the role of the United Nations in the twenty-first century". Asking whether the world still has faith in the Organization, he said that the United Nations should"endeavour to break traditional tendencies and employ innovative strategies to give practical meaning to the lofty aspirations of the global citizenry". To this end,the Summit of the Future presents an opportunity for the international community to revitalize and fortify the multilateral system,ensuring that the UN remains relevant and resilient. "We must work together to defend multilateralism and resist inward-looking protectionist policies,"he urged,adding that the Summit represents an opportunity "to bring back hope to our respective nations". Turning to sustainable development and financing for development,he underscored the need to execute action-oriented strategies to accelerate implementation of the 2030 Agenda. He further urged to keep a strong multilateral framework for peace and security in pace with the times as well as to close the digital divide. MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN JASSIM AL-THANI,Prime Minister of Qatar,said that the 2030 Agenda and the achievement of the SDGs require more international,as well as national efforts. "Our world is faced today with unsurmountable challenges that obstruct its economic development,"he added. Wars and conflicts and the negative impacts of climate change are serious challenges,in particular for developing countries. He stressed the importance reforming international financial institutions and bridging the digital gap. Development cannot be achieved without the strong foundations of peace,security and stability. To that end, Qatar is involved in many mitigation efforts,including currently between Israel and Palestine,alongside Egypt and the United States,to put an end to the catastrophic war on Gaza. He also reiterated calls to reach a ceasefire agreement and the release of all hostages. ANDREW HOLNESS,Prime Minister of Jamaica,said that small island developing States are particularly off-track to meet the SDGs."We must redouble our efforts to address global poverty,inequality and food insecurity,"he stressed,noting the need to limit global temperature increase and deliver a future that fosters peaceful societies. Humanity is facing unprecedented challenges to international peace and security,mainly driven by geopolitical motivations and transnational organized crime networks,he observed,adding that the Pact provides a framework"within which we can all coexist in peace and harmony". BJARNI BENEDIKTSSON,Prime Minister of Iceland,said that the Pact"pulls no punches in identifying the challenges before us and identifying the existential risks we face". "The Pact is also upfront about saying that the crisis has been caused,to a large extent,by our own choices,"he went on to say. No organization—other than the United Nations—has the convening power at a time of conflict between and within many Member States. Today,the world has agreed on a range of actions to close the sustainable development financing gap in developing countries,including by strengthening efforts to prevent and combat elicit financial flows,corruption and money-laundering. Member States have also underlined the central place of human rights in just peaceful and inclusive societies. "We have committed to respecting and protecting all human rights and fundamental freedoms,"he added,emphasizing the importance of protecting the rights of lesbian,gay,bisexual,transgender and intersex persons(LGBTI+)communities. Ensuring universal access to sexual and reproductive health and rights is also vital,he added. DIMITAR BORISOV GLAVCHEV,caretaker Prime Minister of Bulgaria,said that the Summit and the Pact for the Future—which embodies nearly 80 years of multilateral and national experience—will create a safer,more sustainable and equitable world. Acknowledging the challenges of digital inequality,he advocated for increased investment in digital skills—especially for vulnerable populations—and quick adaptation to technological changes. "Our goal is a free,secure digital world with universal Internet access,"he said,voicing support for the Global Digital Compact. He further underscored the need to modernize the United Nations,including Security Council reform,to ensure its relevancy. FUMIO KISHIDA,Prime Minister of Japan,stressed the importance of clear guiding principles in times where nations with diverse values must collaborate. To this end,upholding the rule of law is critical,while unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force cannot be tolerated anywhere in the world.Underscoring that "human dignity"is the foundation for all international cooperation,he urged the international community to "invest in people". "Empowering women,children and youth is a top priority,"he said.Turning to the issue of non-proliferation,he stressed that the progress cannot be stopped no matter how"difficult the path to a world without nuclear weapons may be". Also,the reform of the Security Council is supported by most States,he said,urging for"concrete actions"towards the expansion of both permanent and non-permanent seats. "World leaders must unite under the banner of multilateralism,empowering every individual so they can realize his or her full potential and build a better future,"he concluded. TSHERING TOBGAY,Prime Minister of Bhutan,said humanity finds itself at a pivotal crossroads as it reaches the midpoint of the journey to the 2030 SDGs. "Yet,our determination remains unwavering,"he added. To realize such ambitious goals,the international community must muster the political will to transcend rhetoric and take decisive action. "We must prioritize policies that serve the common good over narrow interests,"he added. It is essential to guarantee that no country is left behind by providing innovative financing,equitable resource distribution and strong partnerships."Success requires that we bridge the digital divide,"he went on. Peace, security and human rights must be guaranteed for all peoples in all countries by ensuring a multilateral system that is both robust and responsive. No nation can address global challenges in isolation,he added. KAY RALA XANANA GUSMAO,Prime Minister of Timor-Leste,said that,"without peace,there are no conditions for development". However,peace is an abstract concept for many nations,he observed,noting that Western Sahara has been waiting for its referendum since 1992. "International law has yet to reach this last colony in Africa,ignored and forgotten,"he added. Further,the international community has yet to find multilateral solutions for a future of peace for many nations worldwide—from Palestine to Ukraine,from Yemen to Sudan, from the Central African Republic to the Democratic Republic of the Congo,from Afghanistan to Myanmar,and from Haiti to many other fragile and conflict-ridden countries. "What kind of world are we living in,where we can fuel wars,but cannot feed children?",he asked,pointing to thousands of deaths in the Mediterranean as people flee their homelands to escape conflict and poverty."With this Pact for the Future,we hope the international community,especially world leaders,will approach this crisis with greater concern and sensitivity beyond the mere discussion of immigration issues,"he stressed. K.P.SHARMA OLI,Prime Minister of Nepal,speaking in his capacity as Chair of the Group of the Least Developed Countries,said"nothing could be more unjust and unethical"than ignoring millions of people in least developed countries who live in extreme poverty,while a small minority of States"accumulates billions in wealth each day". "Is this the future we aspire to?",he asked,urging the international community"to act now to ensure every child and young person has the chance to thrive". Highlighting severe economic challenges,the growing digital divide,as well as the impacts of climate change faced by the least developed countries,he said these States are"frustrated by the continuation of these severe structural impediments". "We must act now to pull the world back from the brink of catastrophe,"he stressed,calling for coordinated,comprehensive and science-based policies with least developed countries at the centre. Lauding the adoption of the Pact for the Future,he said it"encapsulates the hopes and optimism"by reinstalling the interlinkages among peace and security,sustainable development and human rights. ROBERT GOLOB,Prime Minister of Slovenia,said that the Pact for the Future is even more important as the world is facing"a bleak future". "Unless we can stop the wars,there is no common sustainable future,"he warned,urging to stop the aggression on Ukraine,Gaza,Palestine and all armed conflicts where civilians and kids are suffering. Peace is"a vital condition"for effectively tackling the climate crisis,which can only be achieved through"trust,solidarity and global stability",he stressed. Turning to water diplomacy,he called for global partnerships to address the scarcity of water and the extreme weather in some regions of the world. "Extreme weather is hitting us all,"he said,noting that using advanced technology cooperatively is"the only way forward".Detailing a new"super advanced digital ecosystem"developed in Slovenia that links satellite data,supercomputing and artificial intelligence(Al)to predict water availability,he offered to build a global partnership and to utilize this advanced technology to ensure access to clean,sustainable and safe water for all. KASSIM MAJALIWA MAJALIWA,Prime Minister of the United Republic of Tanzania,said the future presents a vital opportunity to restore trust in the multilateral system and to commit to a sustainable future for all.The escalating climate crisis is a pressing reality,particularly for nations like the United Republic of Tanzania,where its impact is felt daily. The United Republic of Tanzania is committed to global climate action and urges the international community to fulfil its duty regarding climate finance and technology transfer. Global and regional partnerships are vital for achieving shared goals. "We must foster solidarity and mutual respect in addressing climate change,advancing digital equity and promoting peace,"he added. ALLAH MAYE HALINA,Prime Minister of Chad,spotlighted the unprecedented global challenges,including the dramatic consequences of climate change,which pose a direct threat to national and regional security.He also drew attention to major security challenges,such as the terrorist attacks of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin region,forcing hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes.The countries in the region also face persistent security challenges,he observed,adding that regional instability has direct repercussions on Chad— "the largest welcomer of refugees in the world". Against this backdrop,he underscored the need to strengthen mechanisms for international cooperation and guarantee sustainable and predictable financing for peacekeeping operations. EBBA BUSCH,Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Energy,Business and Industry of Sweden,speaking as both a representative of her country and a mother,praised the fact that the Pact for the Future puts children's rights"at the very centre". Noting that digital and emerging technologies are reshaping almost every aspect of the world,she spotlighted the Global Digital Compact—"the road map to a digital future"that is open,safe, secure,sustainable and inclusive.Sweden,alongside Zambia,led efforts to create the Global Digital Compact, she said,stressing its role in helping"close digital divides"and"turbocharge the Sustainable Development Goals". "A childhood in freedom requires safety online,"she said,adding that"at the very heart of this vision is the belief that technology,and in particularly AI,must serve humanity." Pointing out the extensive global needs and the growing funding gap,she emphasized the importance of reforming the international financial system to ensure fair representation and legitimacy,as well as the need for the Security Council to reflect today's realities, including"seats for African nations".Turning to global conflicts,she reaffirmed her country's commitment to peace,describing Mosocow's aggression against Ukraine as"an attack"on the very principles that uphold the United Nations. ENRIQUE AUSTRIA MANALO,Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines said the world is grappling with difficult decisions to stay the course in these days of complex crises and conflicts. He called on Member States to recommit multilateralism with the United Nations at the centre,flourishing on the grounds of a rules-based order that provides conditions for trust,solidarity,equity and peace. Respect for the rule of law safeguards global peace and security and enables the international community to confront complex current and future challenges together,he said. It is a touchstone for all international efforts to resolve disputes,prevent conflicts, protect human rights and enhance global governance. Preserving a rules based international order is a collective duty,he added. SAYYID BADR BIN HAMAD BIN HAMOOD ALBUSAIDI,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Oman,underscoring the effectiveness of multilateralism,reaffirmed his country's support for the Pact of the Future. The challenges that the international community is facing cannot be addressed by traditional means alone;they require innovative approaches based on the concept of sustainable development. "We have to act with wisdom and foresight,"he said,adding that it is essential to start implementing policies that focus on future generations. Stressing that international peace and security are the most fundamental pillars for the stability of the world,he said "preventive diplomacy[is]the most effective tool to prevent and settle disputes". Young people are the agents of the future;his Government has therefore launched a number of initiatives and"innovation incubators"in science,industry,culture and sports,he said. TAYE ATSKE-SELASSIE AMDE,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia,noted that the Pact was negotiated amidst "great polarization"in international relations—"which doesn't lend itself to the spirit of consensus and compromise"required to negotiate a global agenda. This,he said,is the"main reason that the Pact had to limit itself to reiteration and emphasis of already agreed global goals and targets". While stressing that setbacks and regression in the implementation of the SDGs"require us to be more ambitious,not less",he said that the Pact —if fully implemented—will"greatly enhance the fate of generations to come". However,the international community's inability to converge on more-ambitious targets is"a stark reminder of the need for change",he said,urging delegations to move from rivalry to cooperation,enhance tolerance for policy differences and work to attain the"most basic"global agenda. ALEXANDER DE CROO,Prime Minister of Belgium,said that,today,the world faces accelerating climate change, pandemics and wars impacting millions of people. "It is high time to deliver on our commitments,"he asserted, underlining the need to uphold commitments to the rule-based international order and respect and promote human rights,which are"backsliding globally". In particular,the freedom of expression must be ensured,while politicians must be held accountable. Responding to today's challenges means unlocking the potential of digital technologies,which are associated with immense potential and challenges,he emphasized. MOHAMAD HASAN,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Malaysia,called on Member States to"galvanize holistic global governance,premised on humanity". Noting that,by 2050,the planet will be home to a population of 10 billion people,he asked: "How will we feed the world then if we cannot do so now?" While education is the tool to address inequality,millions of children in the Global South are deprived of this very fundamental right. Stressing that the climate crisis"is not distant threat—it is here,it is real",he called for action,backed by adequate climate financing,as well as technology transfer and innovation. He urged the international community to work towards a green development pact"that robustly addresses the scientific and technological divide between the North and the South",as well as a global science fund to"encourage diverse and innovative solutions to the challenges we face,leveraging on our collective human capital". BRUNO EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ PARRILLA,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Cuba,said that today the world is still suffering from the effects of colonialism and neo-colonialism. "Our futurist debates continue while we are seeing a continuation of the genocide in Palestine without any effective response from the international community,"he stressed,adding that rising fascism,xenophobia and discrimination are fuelling hatred across the globe. Calling for"less interference and more solidarity",he emphasized the need for equity,cooperation and respect for the people's inalienable rights to choose political and social systems. To that end,the"criminal embargo imposed by the United States"against Cuba and the arbitrary inclusion of his country in the List of States-sponsors of Terrorism is the primary barrier to well-being and development. Criticizing"opulent societies"for their unbridled consumerism that causes climate crisis and global inequality,he warned that without political will to provide necessary funds for sustainable development and to ease debt for millions of people,a decent future will remain"a utopia". ABDOULAYE BIO TCHANE,Minister of State responsible for development and coordination of Government action of Benin,said the world faces several crises in the areas of environment,health,geopolitics,finances and security. This host of factors is not conducive to sustainable development. He warned against so-called solutions that divide,separate,exclude and pose significant threats for coexistence,multilateralism and international cooperation.For its part,Benin is committed to achieving the SDGs via its various projects dedicated to forging growth and reducing poverty. He went on to note his country's progress in achieving the Goals. Despite the world achieving significant technical advancements,there is still increasing poverty,he also added. For Benin,the answer lies in multilateralism. MULAMBO HAMAKUNI HAIMBE,Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Zambia, underscored the need to ensure international consensus on how to safeguard a better future,citing the Summit as an opportunity to reinvigorate multilateralism and tackle existing and emerging threats to the SDGs. The international community must collaborate in addressing numerous threats—including economic shocks, climate crisis and widening digital divide—and confront violations of the Charter of the United Nations and international law,he asserted. Also,with the global financing and investment gap,there is an urgent need to scale up action,he observed,noting that,between 2019 and 2021,"Zambia was one of the 25 African countries that spent more on interest payments than health". OLIVIER NDUHUNGIREHE,Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of Rwanda,said the Pact is a comprehensive,forward-looking document,the implementation of which will ensure that future generations inherit a world that is"not only sustainable,but also equitable and just." His country"understands only too well the importance of unity",he said,adding that the Summit should be the beginning of transformative action. Effectively addressing the challenges confronting the international community calls for an adaptive mindset,he said,adding that it is essential to embrace innovative solutions and build resilient systems and structures. "Together let's embark on transforming our aspirations into tangible realities,"he said,stressing the importance of addressing climate change,preparing for future pandemics and harnessing the power of technology. JOYELLE CLARKE,Minister for Sustainable Development,Environment,Climate Action and Constituency Empowerment of Saint Kitts and Nevis,pointed out that small island developing States grapple with the"poly- crises"of biodiversity loss,plastic pollution and climate change. These challenges are accompanied by food insecurity and threats to health and national security,and she stressed that"the future we deserve"demands deep-rooted,transformative and lasting change."For this,we must redefine multilateral spaces,'she stressed, also calling for unbiased international partnerships that honour small islands'strength and resilience— "systems that respect and include all of our voices". Further,she urged those present to ground their decision- making in a critical assessment of"global historical patterns of disempowerment and exploitation,which constitutes progress for a few and underdevelopment for many". She underscored: "It is time for all to prosper, regardless of size." MOHAMED ALI NAFTI,Minister for Foreign Affairs,Migration and Tunisians Abroad of Tunisia,stated that"the global situation continues to deteriorate",especially for countries in the Global South. This shows that international governance as envisaged at the end of the Second World War is incapable of addressing challenges and root causes. The international community must shore up multilateral mechanisms and reiterate commitment to the principles of the UN Charter and international law—"including by taking a new approach to international cooperation for the common well-being of nations on the basis of equality,mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs,"he said. Affirming support for the Pact for the Future and the Global Digital Compact,he called upon developed countries"to make good on their commitments for financing and for sustainable development and climate action",doing so by helping developing countries to overcome debt. BADR AHMED MOHAMED ABDELATTY,Minister for Foreign Affairs and Emigration of Egypt,welcomed the adoption of the Pact of the Future,the Global Digital Compact and Pact for Global Generations,noting that with the exacerbation of global peace and security situations,there is a need for renewed commitment to the UN Charter and"not have double standards".He reaffirmed his country's trust in the international justice system, which,he observed,is tested by the international community's impotence in resolving such issues. Egypt is committed to the territorial integrity of Somalia and Sudan,whose situations,among other things,highlight the need to reform the global financial architecture and address existing imbalances which have left people behind. Financing for development is key to prevent"additional burden on these countries".His country promotes technological transfer by funding digital innovations and urges the global community to do everything to address water shortages and promote cooperation on climate matters. He endorsed the call for a total removal of nuclear weapons to guarantee the safety of current and future generations. MOHAMED MBAE,Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Comoros,stressing the importance of renewing global solidarity,said sustainable development in least developed countries requires funding. Calling on the international community to adopt an innovative and ambitious funding mechanism,he said that young people and women must be adequately resourced. Universal social protection is crucial for protecting those who work in the informal labour market,he said,appealing to the countries of the North to implement the funding commitments they have made. Also stressing the need to build bridges and restore the UN's authority,he called for"knowledge partnerships"and scientific and technological cooperation.The digital revolution must benefit everyone and must be guided by inclusivity,ethics and accountability,especially in sensitive areas such as artificial intelligence,he added. LEJEUNE MBELLA MBELLA,Minister for Foreign Relations of Cameroon,said that the Pact just adopted is"a real gamble"on peace,sustainable development and human dignity for current and future generations.Because of the specific actions contained therein,the Pact is a suitable way of"guiding us towards the future we wish to see,the future that we have defined together",he said.However,its effective implementation requires immediate action and a demonstration of renewed political will.Stressing that the international community's challenges are growing in number and complexity—"particularly,they have been globalized"—he said that the future of humankind must be defined in this ever-changing digital world. "Science and technology have indeed some of the best tools to achieve growth,"he observed,adding that the Pact brings these tools together "with unity,solidarity and humanity at its heart". KI-HWAN KWEON,Deputy Minister for Multilateral and Global Affairs of the Republic of Korea,called for harnessing the key priority areas of science,technology,and innovation in a way that promotes and protects human rights and serves peaceful purposes. His Government is committed to advancing human-centred Al technology to drive progress. Following the"Al Seoul Summit"in May,the Republic of Korea convened the"Al Global Forum"to push for the establishment of Al norms in the private sector,and also hosted the"Responsible Al in the Military Domain Summit 2024",presenting a comprehensive blueprint for military Al norms. He noted that in June,his delegation hosted an open debate on cybersecurity as President of the Security Council. Further,Seoul has consistently increased its official development assistance(ODA),with an expansion of over 30 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023,and pledges to continue to expand ODA to Africa up to$10 billion by 2030. The representative of Israel said his county continues to face relentless attacks even as the Summit is under way,with hundreds of rockets fired into its territories. Israel will use all weapons at its disposal to protect its people."We did not start this war,but we will protect our homes,our people and our nation,"he emphasized, stressing that the real story of Israel is that despite the immense challenges it faces,it utilizes technology for the advancement of human rights. He challenged the global community on how it can work towards eliminating poverty and how technology can be deployed to help humankind instead of spreading hate. "We cannot be paralysed by the enormity of this task,"he advised,noting that over the past year,antisemitism has escalated, but only through collective action can a lasting difference be made. Israel believes that it cannot leave a legacy of fear and terror for future generations. Noting that the challenges will not be easy to overcome,he called on the international community to come together,as"we can and we must meet our obligations". The representative of the Central African Republic said the Pact's implementation is crucial for speeding up the achievement of the SDGs,preserving rights,peace and stability and improving global governance.The Pact is an invitation to leave behind the current deadlocked environment. Noting the lack of action over the last 30 years, whether in working groups or in intergovernmental negotiations,he said that it is crucial to reform the Security Council to repair the historic injustice done to Africa."I hope this Pact will not turn into the umpteenth lost opportunity,"he said,adding that his country's development has been limited due to internal challenges related to its security situation and its landlocked nature. The national development programme aims to build a prosperous country,and move from a situation of emergency to development. The international community must free up the funding necessary for countries such as his to achieve their aspirations,he said. The representative of Austria spotlighted the many things agreed on in the Pact,including: establishing global cooperation on digital technology,artificial intelligence and cybersecurity;using the immense potential of space to drive sustainable development;accelerating climate commitments;and making concrete steps towards Security Council reform. He also noted that portions of the Pact reflect Austrian priorities,including: strengthening the rule of law and human rights;ensuring that nuclear weapons are never used again;and establishing legally binding regulation of autonomous weapons systems. Stressing that the solution for global challenges lies in cooperation,dialogue and partnership,he said that—"in this spirit"—Austria is a candidate for a non-permanent Council seat in 2026. He added that multilateralism"can only work with open minds", urging delegations to come to the UN"not only to speak,but to listen". ALEKSANDAR VUCIC,President of Serbia,stated that it is incredible how the world's most powerful countries "brutally violate the law of the United Nations,and more than anything,peace". In justifying their"big politics", those States"speak about the just peace,which means that they should win,and that the other ones not only should lose,but they should be completely destroyed." While voicing support for the Pact for the Future,he called for more compromise for developing countries. He further cited the need for balance between the Western point of view on the issue of the rule of law on one side,and the demands of numerous countries when it comes to family and traditional values. While Serbia is a modern country,it is not ready to sacrifice its own traditional values,and"it will be capable of resisting all the attempts from the outside that the so-called woke movement is imposing,"he stated. WILLIAM SAMOEI RUTO,President of Kenya and Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces said the call for bold reforms of the UN system to address rapidly evolving and increasingly complex global challenges is even more urgent today,adding that"without immediate action,humanity will face an unprecedented global crisis". There is therefore a need to redesign the international financial system,strengthen partnerships for common security,bridge the digital divide,and invest in human capacity,especially to empower women and youth. He called for action to address the historical injustice of Africa's lack of permanent representation on the Security Council in addition to region-led peace operations,sustainably funded by UN-assessed contributions.Highlighting Kenya's contribution of troops to Haiti in support of the international security mission in that country and the ongoing success thereof,he noted that"what looked like mission impossible is now a present and real possibility for peace in Haiti".Further,he called for a reform of the currently inadequate multilateral institutional framework. GITANAS NAUSEDA,President of Lithuania,calling on the international community to limit the Russian Federation's ability to continue its colonial policies,expressed regret about the lack of a multilateral response to that country's invasion of Ukraine. "The United Nations must be empowered to stop and contain both present and future aggressors,"he stressed. Noting that lack of resources poses a key obstacle to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals,he said it is vital to create a global financial architecture that is"more equitable,just and responsive to crisis". Turning to the climate crisis,he called for more investment into renewable energy. Highlighting the need to address challenges related to new and emerging technologies,he drew attention to the Council of Europe's adoption of the first-ever Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights,Democracy and the Rule of Law. FILIPE JACINTO NYUSI,President of Mozambiqu,said that multilateralism is"a safe vehicle to pursue our common global agenda".It is not just a choice;rather,it is an imperative for addressing complex challenges. Multilateral engagement is needed to implement the 2030 Agenda,he stressed,also underlining the need for a new international financial architecture that responds to the global challenges of poverty and underdevelopment. Multilateralism,he said,is the best tool with which to address humanity's complex, multiple challenges,and it is urgent to restore peoples'confidence in international institutions and inclusive international law. Spotlighting Africa's youth,hardworking population,diversity and potential,he underscored that—if the international community is serious about promoting global prosperity—"it would be a total collapse"to exclude Africa"from the most-important circles of decision-making". GORDANA SILJANOVSKA-DAVKOVA,President of the Republic of North Macedonia,said that"decorative,or cosmetic reforms of the UN,with a status quo philosophy,or'flying without moving',is not enough"—change must be structural,functional meritocratic,and democratic. Voicing support for a stronger role for the International Court of Justice,she affirmed that its judgments must become binding for everyone. As a representative of a small country,she called for increased participation for those States in the Security Council. "Moreover,an end should be put to the disrespect,bypassing and selective application of the Charter,as in the Macedonian case,"she said. As her country's first female President,"I fiercely advocate for more women in the highest positions,and I am personally fulfilling these commitments,"she stressed. The summary of the statement by Carlos Manuel Vila Nova,President of Sao Tome and Principe,is not available due to the lack of interpretation. ROBINAH NABBANJA,Prime Minister and Leader of Government Business in Parliament of Uganda,observed that major challenges caused by the"current unfair international economic order for developing countries have reached their most acute expression in current times". The Pact she hoped does not become"another futile exercise,but must garner political will and commitment across all levels of global leadership to pragmatically address current issues and lay a foundation for solutions for our future global progress and challenges". The anticipated future must offer opportunities and capacity for the Global South to catch up,a project which will require the international community's commitment to practically implement all the agreed actions in the Pact for the Future. Uganda is committed to the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action and the Global Digital Compact,causing it to initiate an Annual Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance under UN auspices,as well as an inclusive process towards international data governance arrangements,she added. FIAME NAOMI MATA'AFA,Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade of Samoa,said that"small island States are not mere dots on a map,we are vibrant symphonies of life,rich with history and culture." Saving the smallest and most vulnerable is tantamount to saving the world,she stressed,adding: "First and foremost,we must confront climate change." Coastal erosion and rising sea levels are not distant concerns for countries such as hers,she said,calling on the international community to"breathe life into the Paris Agreement". "Beyond the immediate threats of climate change lies an economic tempest of its own,"she said,pointing to the swelling tide of debt,economic fluctuations and external shocks. The reform of the international financial architecture to correct deeply entrenched imbalances is essential. Turning to artificial intelligence and digital technologies,she said while these can be a gamechanger,small island developing States face significant access barriers. Calling for assistance in bridging this digital gap,she said the international community must"share best practices and unlock new opportunities." JUSTIN TRUDEAU,Prime Minister of Canada,noted global instability,the increasingly dire costs of climate change,rising inequality,eroding human rights and humanitarian crises. "On the one hand,we can bury our heads in the sand,eschewing multilateralism in favour of short-sighted self-interest,or we can recognize that, collectively,we have a responsibility to set our differences aside,"he said.For its part,Canada is working to build a generation where everyone"has a real and fair shot",and he emphasized that the solution to peoples' angst"is not to deceive and deflect",but to act. Therefore,the Government is working towards affordable child care,nutritious school meals,an ambitious housing plan,a national dental-care programme and a growth strategy that creates well-paying,community-building,middle-class jobs.However,noting that"climate change and inflation don't stop at borders",he said that the international community must together tackle the great global challenges working within institutions such as the United Nations. FELETI TEO,Prime Minister of Tuvalu noted that his country is a small Pacific atoll island nation,and also a large ocean State. Tuvalu"carries the firm belief that we are only temporary stewards and caretakers of the ocean and the environment on behalf of future generations" However,he warned,"the ocean that used to define us as a people and as a community and as a nation,will soon engulf us if sea-level rise is not halted or the resilience of our land territory to sea-level rise is not reinforced." Tuvalu contributed negligibly,if at all,to the cause of climate change,and"that is how grossly unfair and inequitable the world we live in today"is,he said —with States that benefit the most from fossil fuel extraction accelerating their development and prosperity "at the expense of the most vulnerable States,which are left well and truly behind". DANIEL RISCH,Prime Minister,Minister for General Government Affairs and Minister for Finance of Liechtenstein,said his countrymen expect the United Nations to be the guardian of peace and security. He lamented that five States hold the veto power in the Security Council and can block any decision,even when supported by an overwhelming majority of the international community. He particularly highlighted the"level of absurdity"of the Russian Federation—a veto-wielding member—"far from acting as a guardian of the international order",engaging in a blatant and far-reaching aggression against another State,thus"violating the core principles of our common organization". He urged Member States to stand against those attempting to roll back history,adding that by presenting the veto initiative,Liechtenstein has ensured"that a veto in the Council is no longer the last word". He encouraged the Secretary-General to play a more proactive role and to use the UN's unique authority to mediate,prevent and address conflicts. RALPH E.GONSALVES,Prime Minister and Minister for National Security,Legal Affairs and Information of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines,noting that the multilateral system has been ill for a long time,said the international community is now poised to make"some surgical incisions"that hopefully can lead to healing. Highlighting the current deficit of trust and recent geopolitical tensions,he said everyone is aware of the litany of vulnerabilities that small island developing States face as well as the historic issues that caused their legacies of underdevelopment. Stressing the need to reform the outdated international financial architecture,he said countries such as his have to deal with the"millstone of crushing debt"."Truth be told,the developed countries have been making a lot of promises to us and breaking them cynically,"he said,adding that the international community needs to take more ambitious action to address the climate crisis. "Otherwise,all of us here are going to go to hell in a handbasket;you know it and I know it,"he added. MIHAI POPSOI,Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova,emphasized that the Russian Federation has waged a war of aggression against Ukraine—"in the middle of Europe"—for more than two years. Condemning such aggression,he expressed support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and rejected any threat or use of force against any State—"which should have no place in international relations". He also stated that the Russian Federation's aggressive policy"generates significant negative effects"for his country,including hybrid threats such as cyberattacks,misinformation campaigns, disruptions to public order and meddling in electoral processes. Underlining his Government's commitment to achieve a peaceful settlement in the Transnistria region,he said that this will include the evacuation of foreign troops and munitions and a consolidation of independence and State sovereignty. He also urged that the Pact not become"just another UN document that is adopted and forgotten". SALEUMXAY KOMMASITH,Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Lao People's Democratic Republic,voiced concern over the increased SDG financing gap,citing"the urgency to provide predictable, sustainable,and adequate development finance from diverse sources to developing countries,particularly the poorest and most vulnerable ones". He called for actionable financing frameworks,including the SDG Stimulus, ODA,and private sector investments. Welcoming the adoption of the Global Digital Compact,he expressed support for bridging the science,technology and innovation divides. With 60 per cent of the total population of his country under the age of 30,it"has one of the youngest demographics in South-East Asia,presenting a significant opportunity for economic and social development through the engagement of young people",he stated.He further called for urgent reform of international financial institutions"so they can be more inclusive and reflective of today's economic needs and political realities". GUYLAIN NYEMBO MBWIZYA NYEMBO MBWIZYA,Deputy Prime Minister,Minister of Planning and Development Aid Coordination of the Democratic Republic of Congo,said poverty and hunger,conflicts,and the rise of extremism in the world offer a window of opportunity for a better tomorrow. When the UN was conceived 78 years ago nothing suggested that the future would be presented with such a scenario in which its essence would be called into question. The Pact for the Future is an"excellent opportunity for the global community to embrace a new paradigm",he noted,adding that room should be given for action and the safeguarding of humanity's common good for the planet.The Democratic Republic of Congo is therefore undertaking massive investments in education,health care,women's empowerment,research and technological innovation,he announced,observing that there will be no envisaged future if Africa does not have its rightful place in the Organization with two permanent Security Council seats,or there is no adequate financing for the SDGs. There will be no real future as well without climate justice or"when we can still hear weapons being fired",he said. ALICIA BARCENA IBARRA,Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico,said the Summit is a good moment to acknowledge the crisis of legitimacy that the United Nations is facing. Highlighting her country's commitment to serve as a bridge between different schools of thought,she added that since 1945,the world has changed radically,from new technologies to shifting centres of power. Multilateralism must overcome"nationalist partial views",she said,highlighting the need to respect the principle of common but differentiated responsibility. Noting proposals made by her country during negotiations for the Pact,she said they were aimed at moving towards substantive gender equality and addressing environmental degradation,among others. "We want the world to be inclusive and representative,"she said,stressing the need for Council reform, including elimination of the veto. ABDULLATIF BIN RASHID AL ZAYANI,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Bahrain underlined the need to work towards fair and sustainable development,wider access to science and technology for all countries,youth empowerment,cooperation to end conflicts and support for the principles of international law. For its part, Bahrain worked to ensure that the thirty-third Arab Summit—which it hosted in May—would result in a "valuable outcome". There,"all Arab leaders agreed on the need to end the Israeli-Arab conflict"by implementing a two-State solution and establishing a sovereign,viable Palestinian State,he recalled. He also noted support for Palestine's full UN membership. Further recalling commitments expressed during the Summit to counter the"wider humanitarian and political challenges facing our world",he detailed several initiatives such as those aimed at providing increased access to health care and education for those affected by conflict. YUSUF MAITAMA TUGGAR,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Nigeria,noted that only about 16 per cent of SDG targets are on track to be achieved,calling for"real willingness to fulfill outstanding commitments with the remaining 84 per cent of the SDG targets for 2030. He outlined a list of priorities,including reform of the Security Council to ensure a permanent seat for Africa,along with reform of international financial architecture to promote an inclusive non-discriminatory and transparent international trading system.Further,it is crucial to support local Indigenous production and export from Africa and strengthen measures to ensure timely repatriation of illicit financial flows and assets. Calling for adoption of a UN framework convention on international tax cooperation,he urged the international community to commit to bridging the digital divide between the Global North and South through technology sharing and capacity-building,including in areas such as artificial intelligence. ALBERT SHINGIRO,Minister for Foreign Affairs and Development Cooperation of Burundi noting the COVID-19 pandemic,climate change,wars,geostrategic positioning and trade tensions,said the world today seems to be walking further away from the ideals of peace and security. Collective rules are regularly flouted,leading to muscle diplomacy. Wondering what can consequently be expected other than the weakening of multilateralism and greater inequality with the rich getting richer and poor getting poorer,he nevertheless urged the international community to not become discouraged but tackle these problems today and spare future generations from the scourge of war. He called for recent international agreements to be respected in the areas of digital security,the fight against exclusion and reform of global governance architecture.Burundi is committed to the Pact for the Future. However,signing and implementing a pact are different things. He therefore underscored the need for joint political will,respect for commitment at all levels and the salvaging of multilateralism,adding that the Pact must not be another document but a"kind of compass which guides us together into a peaceful,inclusive and prosperous world to benefit current and future generations". HUSSEIN AWAD ALI,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sudan,stressing the importance of reforming the United Nations,said all countries must adhere to the United Nations Charter. The international community must avoid highlighting some principles of the Charter while ignoring others. Stressing the importance of respecting State sovereignty,territorial integrity and ensuring non-use of force,he said that there are double standards in their implementation. "Certain legal mechanisms are used to achieve political objectives,"he said,pointing to the challenges posed by sanctions on countries such as his. Also calling for reform of the international financial architecture,he said technology transfer is vital. CARLOS PINTO PEREIRA,Minister for Foreign Affairs,International Cooperation and Communities of Guinea- Bissau,said that his country—"as does all countries in development"—faces significant poverty,food insecurity and the negative effects of climate change. Yet,with the support of the international community, "we can implement innovative solutions that will benefit not only our country,but the region and the world",he emphasized. Stressing that education is the basis for a more-prosperous future,he said that all children must be able to access learning. Youth—"the force of our future"and the"leaders of tomorrow",he noted—must be given the opportunities and tools necessary to fully contribute to their societies. Further,they must be involved in decision-making processes.The Summit of the Future,he concluded,is a"turning point",during which concrete measures can be adopted to ensure that"all countries—independent of size and economic growth—can have a say in our common future". ABDOULAYE DIOP,Minister for Foreign Affairs of Mali,citing the"cowardly terrorist acts"of 17 September in his country,reaffirmed its commitment to the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of States,and the sovereign equality of States.He called on the international community to"act together to renew our commitment for thoroughgoing change to the multilateral system that has governed world affairs up until now". In this regard,it is essential that decisions"meet the aspirations of our peoples,particularly those of the Global South". It is also essential to mobilize the courage to proceed to reform multilateral institutions, particularly the Security Council and international financial institutions,"in order to adapt them to the realities of our time,so that they are more inclusive,more just,but above all more representative",he stated. RAMADAN ABDALLAH MOHAMMED GOC,Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity of South Sudan,said his country,as a young nation still recovering from crises,is committed to create a future of peace and dignity for all. He called upon the international community to support efforts for peace,dialogue and reconciliation in his country and everywhere else. Highlighting climate change as one of the most urgent threats with dire effects in South Sudan,he called for solidarity in addressing this issue by investing in agriculture,renewable energy and environmental conservation to secure a resilient future for the people of the world. He said his country is committed to empowering its young people and diversification of its economy,also seeking partnerships that encourage inclusive economic growth,job creation and infrastructure development.He further expressed his Government's commitment to creating a world where all people have opportunity to thrive. The representative of the African Union said the international community must embrace solidarity instead of hostility,respect instead of scorn and sharing instead of exclusion. Unfortunately,in recent times, multilateralism has been eclipsed by unilateralism and power struggle,he said,rejecting this approach and stressing the need to renew State confidence in multilateralism. The Union has defended this policy,he said, adding that the actions recommended by the Pact,particularly the Global Digital Compact,are in line with the aspirations of its 2063 Agenda. The implementation of the action plans created by the Union has been hobbled significantly by the scarcity of financing,he said. "Let's hope the wealthy keep their promises this time,"he said. DIANA ELENA MONDINO,Minister for Foreign Affairs,International Trade and Worship of Argentina,said that her country"has decided to operate a society where people are responsible for their actions,but can act in freedom". Further,the Government wants to address the challenges of terrorism and threats to democracy, international security and economic development and,in this,takes as its guide the Charter of the United Nations. Deviations from the purposes and principles of that instrument"create problems",she emphasized— "not just for a given country,that loses its own freedom,but also for those countries interacting with that country".Reporting that her country has conducted a"realistic diagnosis"and begun a serious reform process, she said that Argentina will open to the world and commit"to be one of the freest countries of the international community". She also pointed out that the Pact consists of non-legally binding aspirations,which every State can interpret autonomously. The representative of the International Development Law Organization affirmed that the rule of law is critical to rebuilding public trust,as"the unmet demand for justice is at the root of multiple crises around the globe". The rule of law helps ensure fairness,accountability,and transparency,while people-centred justice systems protect the rights of the least powerful and give people confidence that institutions are working in the interest of all rather than a privileged few. "The inclusion of women,youth and other historically excluded groups is essential for the whole-of-society approaches needed for lasting peace and sustainable development,"she stated. Further,the rule of law is key to reinvigorating and repurposing multilateralism for the twenty-first century. She emphasized that at the international level,as enshrined in the UN Charter,the rule of law guarantees the sovereign equality of Member States and is the basis for the preservation of international peace and security. The representative of the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP)wondered how people outside the General Assembly Hall would receive the Pact. He highlighted the Programme's efforts on sustainable development financing and its support for countries,also shaping new SDG financing. UNDP's global support continually provides a pathway for people to enjoy clean water,digital technologies and have hope for the future,he said. The representative of the World Health Organization(WHO)said that health is not created in clinics and hospitals;it is created in streets and homes and schools and communities and parliaments. When people need care,they must be able to access health services when and where they need it without facing financial hardships,he stressed. The WHO pandemic agreement offers a shared approach to shared threats,he said, adding that it does not give his organization any undue sovereignty giving it the power to impose lockdowns or vaccine mandates. "This is fake information,"he said,adding that the agreement is being negotiated by Member States,and will be implemented in full accordance with national laws.Highlighting WHO's efforts to meet the health needs of refugees and host communities in Sudan,he added: "But what the people of Sudan, Gaza and Ukraine need more than aid is a ceasefire". There is no health without paece and no peace without health. The representative of the United Nations Office for Project Services(UNOPS),stating that"today, multilateralism received a boost",said that the agency is committed to supporting the Summit's outcome by focusing on practical solutions to respond to conflict and crisis,deliver sustainable development and advance climate action. Further,UNOPS is ready to leverage its experience in infrastructure,procurement and project management to"bridge the gap that exists between ambitions and reality on the ground",he said. Stressing that"our future hangs in the balance",he urged collective,responsible and decisive action to deliver peace and prosperity for both people and planet. The representative of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization(UNIDO)recalled that"the landmark outcomes of all major conferences this year are telling us the same story: To achieve the SDGs, developing countries need to invest in transforming their economies and industrialize." He noted that countries that do industrialize are making the biggest strides in poverty eradication,ending hunger and wealth creation, emphasizing that"every job in manufacturing creates on average 2.5 jobs in other sectors of the economy". He pointed out that industry is already a driver of green innovation today,with industrial firms holding nearly 60 per cent of green patents globally. Calling on the Summit to help to set standards for the global economy,he insisted that"fair and sustainable supply chains are a must". In addition to flagship initiatives on industrial deep decarbonization and green hydrogen,he noted that UNIDO has launched new ones such as the Global Alliance and Partnership for Responsible and Green Minerals. The representative of the Sovereign Order of Malta said the global community should never lose sight of the most vulnerable and disadvantaged groups in society,as"'leaving no one behind'must represent an imperative for the whole international community". No economic and social progress can occur without the strengthening of multilateral cooperation centred around the UN. He renewed his appeal for respecting international humanitarian law,and highlighted Ukraine and Gaza as recipients of his country's most significant emergency operations. The Sovereign Order attaches utmost importance to the goal of promoting and safeguarding religious freedoms,religions and dialogues amongst them,as the work of faith-based organizations can be powerful vehicles of conflict mediation,social advancement,and sustainable development. "Together,we can accelerate progress towards a future where dignity,human rights,access to health and education are realities for all,leaving no one behind,"he said. The representative of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR)said that the international community can help refugees and internally displaced persons shape their future—"especially those for whom it brings fear as much as hope". The doors of schools and clinics must be opened to such individuals"so that they can contribute to the communities hosting them while we work together to find solutions to their plight",he urged. All stakeholders should work towards a vision where refugees are seen as an opportunity—not a burden—he stressed,and one where such individuals"can think of a future in which they are not refugees". The representative of the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP)stated that"there can be no sustainable future,no economic stability without a healthy environment"—requiring a shift to a world in which humanity lives in harmony with nature,with healthy lands,water and oceans,with stable climate,free of pollution. She called on humanity to sustainably and equitably use resources,pointing to commitments already made to deliver that shift in many multilateral agreements. Citing the three planetary crisis—climate change, nature and biodiversity loss and desertification,and pollution and waste,she pointed to negotiations on an instrument to end plastic pollution. The Programme calls on all Member States"to do their utmost to forge a strong impactful agreement and quickly move to the adoption,ratification and implementation to deliver on all agreements and strengthen sustainable development". The representative of the International Telecommunications Union(ITU)said the delivery of the Pact for the Future by Member States has"sent a powerful message to the world that our future is digital—that we can and must write it together",adding that,as the UN agency for digital technologies,ITU"will be with you every step of the way". She noted that digital divides can no longer be tolerated in an age of unimaginable digital opportunities,with one third of humanity still unconnected—without a voice. Radio-frequency spectrum and associated satellite orbit resources must therefore be shared equitably and sustainably for all of humanity as well as strengthening of international standards. "As we look to 2030,let's turn the vision of the Pact for the Future and its Global Digital Compact into a lasting reality",she encouraged,calling for a redoubling of efforts to advance universal meaningful connectivity and sustainable digital transformation. The representative of the Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO),spotlighting the more than 730 million people worldwide who faced hunger in 2023,underscored that the international community is"not on track to achieve any of the global SDG targets". Huge inequality persists,and the future will be determined by the emergence of more-equitable agrifood systems. Urging a focus on innovative,cost-effective investment to achieve the 2030 Agenda,he said that"hunger can be defeated"through collaboration and by leveraging comparative advantages. The representative of the Council of Europe stressed that its"current priority is to support Ukraine,which is one of our Member States. At the beginning of the year,the register of damage became fully operational-a register that receives contributions for the loss and damage caused by the war of aggression waged by the Russian Federation. This is a first tool,but absolutely necessary as a step toward an international mechanism for compensation. "We will play a key role when it comes to any tribunal aiming to judge the crime of aggression," he stated,noting the Council will work to implement a plan of action for resilience,recovery and reconstruction. The European Convention of the European Court human rights is the only international jurisdiction that as of now has ruled on human rights violations in the context of the war,but he pointed to other tools—including the Istanbul Convention to Prevent and Combat Domestic Violence and Violence Against Women. DAREN TANG,a representative of the World Intellectual Property4[ganization reminding the Summit that"it is often in times of crises that we are at our most innovative"urged Member States to not lose hope. The power of human invention,innovation and creativity must be harnessed to build a more resilient,prosperous and sustainable future.As intellectual property shifts from a technical area of interest only to experts to an increasingly important cornerstone of economic and trade policy,and a catalyst for growth and development, WIPO is transforming the global intellectual property regime so that it is more inclusive and vibrant. Noting that intellectual property is not just about technical laws,but also a catalyst for progress,opportunity,and sustainability,he expressed WIPO's pledge to work with everyone to harness the power of innovation and creativity to support the aims of the Summit. The representative of the International Organization for Migration(IOM)said that successive generations of people have moved in search of a better life—"and we know many more will move in the future". Investing in safe,regular and orderly pathways for migration can help reduce irregular migration,accelerate inclusive growth,strengthen decent work,bridge demographic shifts and labour gaps and foster sustainable development,she emphasized. She added that all States share a collective responsibility to protect and respect the human rights of all migrants,underlining IOM's commitment to support people on the move. The representative of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Mediterranean announced concrete initiatives including the creation of a permanent Parliamentary Observatory of the Global South for the SDGs,based in and managed by Morocco. He further cited the creation of a permanent Global Parliamentary Observatory on the misuse of AI and emerging technologies that will be a platform for monitoring,analyzing and promoting effective legislation principles and criteria"so that these tools are not used by terrorists and criminal groups for their own malicious purposes but for the benefit of all humanity". The representative of the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP)said the future to be inherited by the next generation"depends on the choices we now make". Observing that of the region's 53 members,only one remains low-income,and five of the original 14 least developed countries remain so at the end of the decade,she said ESCAP's trajectory towards sustainable development,despite being uneven,has been an undeniable success. However,a future with even greater possibilities"calls for a transformative change to this model of development",she quickly pointed out.The region must reduce its carbon emissions by all possible means and maximize its human resources. She stressed the critical need to create an equitable social security system and address financing gaps with debt servicing and mobilization of private sector investment. The region's youth,she said,must"see possibilities,participate in decision-making and seize opportunities before them". The representative of the Economic Commission for Europe,stressing that"we are doing this for the children", said the international community must invest in education. When the youth of today have to take decisions tomorrow,they will know to put environmental and social concerns before economic or political gains. Underscoring the need for an inclusive approach,she said the actions to implement the Pact will need to be taken by people of all ages,by women and men,by communities,by local and regional authorities. "They are on the front lines,"she said,adding that States must enable them,trust them and partner with them. The representative of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS,Tuberculosis and Malaria stressed that,in a world where about 4.5 billion people are not fully covered by essential health services,"now is not the time to shy away from commitments"to bolster progress towards universal health coverage. Global health must stay at the centre of the international agenda,and she welcomed the Pact's focus on climate change as"the biggest global health challenge of our time". The phenomenon is destabilizing the foundations of human health,deepening inequality and leading to the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Noting that the Global Fund is an "example of partnership powered by equity",she expressed hope for broadened multilateralism to create a healthier and more peaceful world. The representative of the Latin America and Caribbean Development Bank said multilateral banks and regional ones need to be strengthened at all levels to meet current challenges. Therefore,the international financial architecture must be efficient in deploying greater resources to achieve sustainable development,he said, noting that the Global South requires"differentiated approaches and innovative flexible solutions"with appropriate financing. With greater capital,his Bank would be able to increase resources as a reliable channel to tackle specific challenges. "We will continue in our role to assist countries by optimizing their tax systems, easing their debt burdens and increasing investment,"he committed. The representative of the International Labour Organization(ILO)said the world needs a more equitable distribution of economic resources and universal access to social protection. In order to achieve this,it is crucial to involve non-State actors such as workers'and employers'organizations. Citing his organization's constitution,he added that social justice is imperative to lasting peace.Noting that the Pact calls for global governance reform and financing for development,he reminded delegates that in 2023,20 per cent of young people were neither in employment or education or training. Further,3.8 billion people have no access to any single social protection,he said,reaffirming his organization's commitment to a more equitable world. The representative of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation underlined the need for enhanced, revitalized global partnerships to address shared resourcing and investment gaps in implementing the 2030 Agenda. Noting that each region has its own cultural,economic and environmental context,he said that it is essential to"tailor our approaches to fit these diverse landscapes".Further,the resources available must be increased by combining traditional development assistance with innovative financing solutions. "The linkage between global prosperity and South Asia cannot be overemphasized,"he concluded,spotlighting the region's "immense potential for global prosperity". The representative of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia said the Summit represents a moment of introspection for the global community,adding that interactions among nations with diverse backgrounds within environments of trust,mutual respect,and equal footing contribute to the SDGs. His organization's Conference on Environmental Issues,held in August,adopted a high-level statement that reflects Member States'dedication to advancing collaboration in addressing critical environmental issues. In December,the partnership network of the Conference's leading universities will be established at the Ministerial Council Meeting in Baku. He highlighted the crucial nature of organizations like his to addressing global challenges at the regional level,opining that"together,we can build a resilient and sustainable future". The representative of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization said it is an association of 26 countries with various statuses and represents over half the population of the world,as well as a quarter of its surface area. The organization is committed to"the principle of openness and the Shanghai spirit",which means mutual trust,respect for cultural diversity and striving for development,he said. Rejecting a confrontational or bloc- based approach,he said that given the tectonic changes in global policies at the moment,the best response is to unify efforts to shape a more representative,democratic and multipolar world. The representative of the Economic Commission for Africa(ECA)pointed out that 21 African countries are either in—or at high risk of—debt distress. Basic social expenditures are being crowded out,there is limited access to long-term concessional finance and unprecedented climate effects cost up to 5 per cent of Africa's annual gross domestic product(GDP). "Yet,we cannot attract sufficient investments"because the rules of engagement do not favour Africa,he reported,noting that Africa's borrowing costs are four times higher than the United States'and more than four times higher than Germany's. Stressing that"justice for Africa cannot be served"by an outdated global financial architecture,he also called for an international tax cooperation framework to be finalized and implemented. The representative of the International Olympic Committee said that despite geopolitical tensions,the Committee was able to bring athletes from all around the world,including refugees,to the Olympic games, during which they all lived peacefully,eating together without any form of discrimination. These athletes "created a culture of peace,showing how our world would be if we all were to live in the Olympic spirit of peaceful coexistence",he said,highlighting that this was the first Olympic games with full gender parity,and with a record number of 37 refugee participants winning their first-ever Olympic medal. He revealed that the 2024 games in Paris emitted 50 per cent less carbon dioxide emissions than past games. The Committee is promoting the role of sport as an important enabler and accelerator of the SDGs and is ready to strengthen the contribution of sports in the framework of the Pact for the Future because the Pact"perfectly reflects our Olympic motto: faster,higher,stronger together",he concluded. The representative of the Inter-American Development Bank said the current pivotal moment demands "youthful energy and relentless pursuit of dreams". Climate change is fueling biodiversity loss,creating"a horrible feedback loop",as exemplified by historic drought in the Amazon. It is essential to turn challenges into opportunities,he said,adding that the international community must embrace innovative solutions to build the foundation for growth and prosperity. The representative of the Economic Community of West African States(ECOWAS)emphasized that"there is hardly anything new in the Pact that we have not committed ourselves to in the past under the UN and other frameworks." For ECOWAS,the difference between the Pact for the Future and earlier global agreements will lie in delivering on commitments in the areas of peace and security,sustainable socioeconomic development, climate change and climate justice,as well as youth empowerment. "It will also mean concrete action to promote and support our regional unity not our disunity,our integration not our disintegration,and a commitment not to turn Africa,especially West Africa into a zone of proxy conflicts,"he stressed. Another failure will mean that"history will look back to this summit not as the summit of the future but a summit of the past." The representative of the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia(ESCWA)said today was"a defining moment in human history". In leading the Arab region through an era of rapid global change,the Commission is integrating intelligent technologies and foresight methodologies into policymaking processes,transforming how Governments forecast trends,assess risks,and make informed decisions that are proactive rather than reactive. Through advanced policy simulation tools and data-driven insights,"we are equipping our member States to design policies that are not only resilient and inclusive,but also aligned with the long-term aspirations of their people,"she said. The Commission will champion the development of inclusive digital economies that empower youth and women,driving the economic diversification essential for the region's long-term stability and prosperity. "This is our moment to act with vision,to lead with courage,and to turn the promise of the Pact for the Future into a reality,"she stated. The representative of the Common Fund for Commodities noted that"commodities are the lifeblood of many economies"—especially in developing nations,where billions of smallholder farmers at the lowest income levels depend on commodities and commodity-related jobs for their livelihoods.Commodities have the potential to fuel sustainable economic growth,generate jobs and provide vital revenues,while paving the way for a greener,more equitable world. However,when mismanaged,these very commodities can become sources of environmental devastation,social injustice and economic fragility. "Therefore,it is our moral duty to ensure that justice and ethics are woven into every step of the commodity value chain,transforming them into forces that uplift societies,"he stated. The Fund has supported 127 projects in least developed countries alone, with a total value of about$189 million and the direct contribution of$105 million,improving the livelihoods of countless farmers and smallholders. The representative of the African Development Bank Group,highlighting the establishment of the Africa Credit Rating Agency,said the global financial system does not protect his continent from the contagious effects of world-wide economic shocks. Africa is the only region of the world without a financial safety net,he said, adding that it is critical to establish a financial stability mechanism to address this.Also drawing attention to the need to deploy risk instruments at scale to bring more investments to Africa,he said this is essential to tackle the rising insecurity. The representative of the United Nations Capital Development Fund stated that the SDG financing gap continues to widen,threatening to leave behind those below the poverty line,particularly in least developed countries,small island nations and many other fragile settings. The Fund is"the only UN fund capable of deploying inclusive blended finance solutions at the pace and scale needed to crowd in private streams of finance at the last mile,"he said. It responds to this call by enhancing its unique capabilities to amplify the impact of the UN system and the wider development community. As a non-credit rated hybrid development and finance institution,the Fund is designed to absorb and reduce the high risks that make access to sustainable capital simply unattainable,catalysing investments that otherwise would be unbankable. "You can see the impact is felt in fragile developing countries around the world today,"he stated. #0 Corn mon Futu ía\ 0 For information media.Not an official record. AU/ACSC/2015 AIR COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY CATACLYSMIC POLARITY SHIFT IS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY PREPARED FOR THE NEXT GEOMAGNETIC POLE REVERSAL? by Tyler J. Williams, Captain, USAF A Research Report Submitted to the Faculty In Partial Fulfillment of the Graduation Requirements Advisor: Dr. Dennis Duffin Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama December 2015 DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. Disclaimer The views expressed in this academic research paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the US government or the Department of Defense. In accordance with Air Force Instruction 51-303, it is not copyrighted, but is the property of the United States government. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DISCLAIMER ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Error! Bookmark not defined.ii ABSTRACT Error! Bookmark not defined.iii SECTION I: INTRODUCTION 1 Research Framework and Report Overview 2 SECTION II - BACKGROUND 4 Origin of the Magnetic Field 4 Geomagnetic Polarity Reversals and Geomagnetic Excursions 5 Reversal Frequency 5 Reversal Timeframes 6 When Will the Next Pole Reversal Occur? 7 Polarity Reversal Impacts 7 Decrease in Field Strength 8 Increased Cosmic and Solar Radiation 9 Geomagnetism Monitoring Programs 9 Pole Reversal Acknowledgements 11 SECTION III - EVALUATION RESEARCH CRITERIA 13 SECTION IV -NATIONAL SECURITY IMPACTS 14 Severe Space Weather Event 14 Communications Systems 16 iii Satellite Infrastructure 17 Electrical Power Grid 19 Agriculture and the Food Chain 22 Economic Infrastructure 24 Response Preparedness 25 Increases in Cosmic and Solar Radiation 28 Communications Systems 28 Satellite Infrastructure 29 Electrical Power Grid 31 Agriculture and the Food Chain 32 Economic Infrastructure 33 Response Preparedness 34 SECTION V - CONCLUSIONS 35 Conclusion#1: The Nation is Not Prepared 37 Conclusion#2: The Magnetic Field and Modern Society 38 Conclusion#3: Prediction Capabilities 39 SECTION VI - RECOMMENDATIONS 41 Recommendation#1: Geomagnetism Funding 41 Recommendation#2: Develop Real Time 3-D view of Earth's Interior 43 Recommendation#3: Develop Response, Recovery and Risk Plans 44 Recommendation#4: Global Geomagnetic Initiative 46 Recommendation#5: Improve Space Weather Forecasting Capabilities 46 Recommendation#6: Develop National Electrical Grid Control Measures 48 iv Recommendation#7: Harden Satellites and Electrical Transformers 49 Recommendation#8: Make Understanding the Earth a Priority 50 Summary 51 ENDNOTES 53 BIBLIOGRAPHY 59 v LIST OF FIGURES Page FIGURE 1. THE EARTH'S GEOMAGNETIC FIELD 4 FIGURE 2. GEOMAGNETIC POLARITY TIMESCALE 6 FIGURE 3. COMPUTER SIMULATION DEPICTING POLE REVERSAL 7 FIGURE 4. SOHO IMAGE OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION 14 FIGURE 5. AREAS OF POWER SYSTEM COLLAPSE 22 FIGURE 6. MAGNETIC MAP OF THE EARTH 27 FIGURE 7. 1989 SOLAR STORM PROGRESSION 37 FIGURE 8. 3-D VIEW OF HAWAII HOT SPOT 44 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research process has been difficult, challenging and rewarding. I spent many nights, holidays and weekends toiling on this report rather than spending much needed time with my family and friends. As such, I would like to thank my wife, children, and my whole family for enduring the countless hours of having me at home,but unavailable. I would also like to thank the many Air University teachers who helped me along my journey. More specifically, I would like to thank Dr. Brett Morris, Dr. Dennis Duffin and my fellow research elective classmates Gordo and Heath for helping me to refine and complete this report. This would have been impossible to accomplish without all the guidance, support and help of those listed above. vii ABSTRACT The Earth's core is undergoing a dramatic change with geomagnetic field strength dropping by 40% over the last 400 years, and satellite observations showing the field weakening ten times faster than previously calculated. These changes are a precursor to a common geological phenomenon known as a geomagnetic polarity reversal, where the north and south magnetic poles of the Earth reverse. Geomagnetic polarity reversals significantly decrease the strength of the magnetic field, thereby considerably increasing the interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's atmosphere and biosphere. The purpose of this research is to answer if the United States is prepared for the impacts to national security resulting from the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. The report begins with an overview of pole reversals, then evaluates the effects of reversals on United States national security by utilizing six evaluation criteria ranging from infrastructure areas such as the electrical power grid to national response capabilities. The research evaluates the impacts of increases in solar and cosmic radiation and the threat of adverse space weather during a polarity transition on United States national security. This research concluded that the nation is not prepared for both geomagnetic polarity reversals and adverse space weather. Furthermore, the nation has neglected funding for geoscience and geomagnetism research. Based on the conclusions, this research recommends increasing geoscience and geomagnetism funding, spearheading an international geomagnetic initiative, developing response,recovery and risk plans at the national level and preparing the national infrastructure for the threats posed by pole reversals. viii Section I - Introduction The Earth's core is in the midst of a significant change. During the last 400 years, the geomagnetic field, or magnetosphere, has declined in strength by a remarkable 40%.1 Measurements by ESA's SWARM geomagnetism monitoring satellite array have further confirmed this change with measurements indicating the magnetic field is weakening ten times faster than previously predicted. The weakening trend in the magnetic field clearly shows that the Earth's core is undergoing a substantial transformation. The Earth's geomagnetic field is responsible for both shielding the atmosphere and biosphere from the harmful effects of solar and cosmic radiation, and creating conditions on the surface that are ripe for life. The magnetosphere, then, is the invisible barrier that has played a significant role in protecting the Earth from the harmful effects of space. The importance of this shield is evident when comparing the Earth and Mars. One is a lush planet full of water and life, the other a barren,rocky desert with no magnetic field. The weakening trend in the magnetic field is a precursor to a common geologic phenomenon known as a geomagnetic polarity reversal, where north and south magnetic poles of the Earth swap positions. While a pole flip may sound benign, the implications extend well beyond a change in polarity. Increases in cosmic and solar radiation bombarding the Earth's surface and a decrease in the magnetic field strength of 90% are a few of the results of the reversal process.3 The decrease in magnetic field strength would increase vulnerability to catastrophic space weather events and increase cosmic and solar radiation interaction with the atmosphere and surface, leading to infrastructure damages in the trillions of dollars, and the death of untold numbers of Americans. Despite the danger posed by the magnetosphere 1 decreasing in strength, geomagnetic polarity reversals have received no attention as a threat to the nation. The lack of research does not diminish the hazardous consequences a reversal would have on modern society. As such, this research was conducted to answer the following question: Is the United States prepared for the impacts to national security that would occur during the next geomagnetic pole reversal? While geomagnetic polarity reversals receive little attention outside the geosciences, reversals have the capability of crippling the nation's interconnected and interdependent infrastructures, posing a threat to national security extending far beyond those predicted by global warming and climate change. Unlike the debate surrounding man-made climate change and global warming,polarity reversals are a proven natural phenomenon that have occurred hundreds of times in the Earth's past, and will happen again in the future.' Research Framework and Report Overview This research utilizes an evaluation framework to assess United States national security preparedness for the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. First, the report explains the two impacts resulting from polarity reversals, and then evaluates their effects on United States national security utilizing six evaluation criteria that cover various aspects of the nation's infrastructure. The criteria assess the costs of each impact on national security using a variety of sources, both from academic and government sources. The results of the evaluation will answer whether the United States is ready for the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. The report is divided into five major sections, starting first with a background section covering the scientific facts and unknowns regarding polarity reversals, then reviews the six evaluation criteria areas, followed by an analysis and assessment of the two pole reversal impacts on United States national security, then completing with conclusions and recommendations. The 2 evaluation framework allows this research to quantify how a geomagnetic polarity reversal would affect United States national security. The overall purpose of this research is to evaluate United States preparedness for the next reversal event and to highlight the importance of the geosciences outside of climate change and global warming for national security considerations. Because of the damaging effects of pole reversals on national security, the United States should consider reversals a direct threat to the nation, and should devote the time, money and resources needed to unravel the mechanisms creating the Earth's magnetic field. Understanding the Earth's core, geodynamo and magnetosphere should be a top priority for the United States to not only mitigate the hazardous effects of a pole reversal on the nation's infrastructures and national security but to understand better the complex and ever-changing Earth system. 3 Section II — Background ccographlc _ \ Nor[h Pole N. • \ Magnetic 04.1 Polo • _ '\ (( Liquid S \ 1 4vl rcore \ � I t 6 „ P said I Inner core I I I / l 1 • • / Magnetie \ \ r / South Pale \ / Gecgraphic \ ~ ' / Soufn Pole \ — — _ .......... . Figure 1. The Earth's Geomagnetic Field. Reprinted from Science News, https://www.sciencenews.org/sites/default/files/17635 (accessed 20 October 2015). Origin of the Geomagnetic Field The Earth's interior consists of four major sections: the crust, mantle, outer core and inner core.5 The geomagnetic field originates from the Earth's core, creating the equivalent of an axial dipole magnet with both distinct north and south magnetic poles.6 The highly conductive liquid iron and nickel outer core rotates around the solid iron inner core, and through a combination of heat convection and rotation, creates the Earth's geomagnetic field.' This idea, known as the geodynamo, is the prevailing theory on the origin of the Earth's magnetic field. The geomagnetic field is not a recent phenomenon, however, having been active for at least the last 3.2 billion years.8 Far from stable and static, the field continually varies in strength, intensity and polarity. Magnetic variations range from periods of seconds and minutes to 4 intervals of 10 million years or more, known as superchrons.9 The use of magnetic declination on charts and maps is an example of the ever-changing nature of the magnetic field. Geomagnetic Polarity Reversals and Geomagnetic Excursions A geomagnetic polarity reversal occurs when Earth's geomagnetic field weakens, and north and south magnetic poles of the Earth flip. The weakening of the field does not always result in a pole reversal, with failed reversal events called geomagnetic excursions occurring in the Earth's history. Polarity reversals are geomagnetic events where the field flips magnetic poles and remains stable for thousands or millions of years, whereas geomagnetic excursions are events where the field weakens and attempts a reversal,but is unsuccessful.10 While geomagnetic excursions do not succeed in swapping magnetic poles, their effects are indistinguishable from successful polarity reversals until the field polarity changes. Reversal Frequency Pole reversals are a familiar part of the Earth system going back millions of years. In fact, during the last 40 million years alone the field has flipped 143 times, with an average reversal rate of once per 250 thousand years for the last 25 million years.11,12 The last polarity reversal, the Matuyama-Brunhes, occurred over 780 thousand years ago, showing that the Earth could be overdue for a reversal based on the frequency of the last 25 million years.13 It is also important to note that there have been several geomagnetic excursions occurring since the last full polarity reversal event, which occur at a rate of two to three per million years.'4 5 Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale C-Sequence and M-Sequence 0 _C1 C93. 1 M:lr C:o a,- 12r- m C2 taa r i C2A as- U MI C3Ai 90.. C 130— :.... r%5 c.22 .O ,. _ 023I.71c o..:-Ira �. C 10-N a M ++I I CS c 23 -� -M:n NO) Ut ^ ._ 13 Cs0 a 35- .0 O .58 1111- V U ry ■M'2 �A 100— 140_ - M M'2 CSO c .I M.. 17 08 Q U . rn �- -0430ITI y _ -Mrs l 'IC64H -d C27 52 N (� M1O can �:.�C... (:2H 1 cosOi-~N m .E 145 M'9 U4-5--4 CGC 60- _c2B U 4 a C Mtt: .0 O —M]1 -CB rN/� 2 - C9 l0 _ 1E0- 1 5,22 .1-TI-,-D cat C1, J0- 2 N _027 r — 30— Q ,CII 0 E -u Iv1�_� miC 32 42 N Y - 042 Z WS— ,—CI M.'.. C�—_ 75— C 13 r.1'_ J N 3n—n5 („) .ICO .SY =J«J. ere E _ C17 V C33 120- 11, MI ®t, ._ 1.! :C- W n -6— 12 a - r.19 U— 25 ro, 1v. I eon= r„ Al Figure 2.Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale.Reprinted from Georgia Tech Geophysics Department, http://geophysics.eas.gatech.edu/class es/Geophysics/mise/pies/magnetic-time- scale.jpg(accessed 22 November 2015). Reversal Timeframes The timeframes involved with reversals vary, with research in 2014 showing the Matuyama-Brunhes transition completed in less than 100 years, displaying the abrupt and dynamic nature of some reversal events.15 Additional research conducted in the United States showed field change rates up to 6 degrees per day and 1 degree per week for two reversal events, demonstrating that a rapid directional change of the field is common.16 There is building evidence and support for the prevalence of rapid directional change during geomagnetic reversals. While reversals can be abrupt events, other research has shown reversals completing 6 on the order of several hundred to several thousand years.17 The variation in reversal timescales underscores the variable and complex nature of the magnetosphere. When will the next Pole Reversal Occur? There is strong evidence suggesting that a transition may be underway, with magnetic field strength levels during the last 150-200 years dropping by a significant 15 percent.' Measurements made since the invention of the compass have shown strength levels falling by an astounding 40% over 400 years.19 Field strength measurements made by ESA's SWARM satellite array add to this building picture of changes in the Earth's core, with data showing the rate of change is occurring ten times faster than previously calculated.20 If the weakening trend continues accelerating, and the field reverses in the same manner as the Matuyama-Brunhes transition, the Earth could see a flip in a human lifetime. i • i + _.. t. Figure 3.Computer simulation depicting Geomagnetic Pole Reversal. Frame 1 is before the reversal,frame 2 is during the reversal,and frame 3 is after the reversal. Note the tangled and complex nature of the magnetic field in frame 2. Reprinted from Astronomy.com,http://www.astronomy.com/-/media/import/images/8/3/0/July-2010- earth_s-magnetic-.jpg?mw=600(accessed 20 November 2015). Polarity Reversal Impacts Pole reversals create two changes to the Earth system that affect the United States: 1) a decrease in geomagnetic field strength, and 2) an increase in radiation entering the atmosphere 7 and biosphere. While there are other possible impacts to include links between reversals, worldwide volcanism, and mass extinctions, they are not included due to the contentious nature of the findings. This section of the report provides a baseline on each reversal impact before beginning the evaluation section. The goal is not to provide a comprehensive overview, but to highlight the pertinent background information for each effect. Decrease in Field Strength The most significant change occurring during a reversal is a substantial weakening of the geomagnetic field. Over the course of several hundred to thousand years during the reversal, the magnetic field becomes distorted and weakened.' The magnetosphere fluctuates from a geomagnetic dipole to multipolar field, decreasing in strength down to ten percent of its average intensity.22 In this transition phase, various north and south polarity regions exist across the globe, creating a magnetosphere that is both non-uniform, irregular and considerably weakened.23 The magnetosphere is vulnerable to the solar wind as a consequence, resulting in further distortion and abating of the field. The weakening effect also increases the solar wind's interaction with the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to considerable decreases in upper atmosphere ozone and oxygen levels, and increasing atmospheric escape into space.24 Finally, the weakened magnetosphere drastically increases the susceptibility of the Earth to space weather events, which are already harmful to the Earth with the current relatively stable magnetic field. The weakening of the magnetosphere is the most significant change occurring in the Earth's magnetic field during a pole reversal. 8 Increased Cosmic and Solar Radiation The geomagnetic field acts a filter against solar and cosmic radiation,protecting both the atmosphere and biosphere from the harmful effects of radiation. The shift from a dipole to a multi-polar field leaves the magnetosphere less efficient at blocking solar and cosmic radiation. The increased amounts of energetic particles interacting with the atmosphere decrease atmospheric ozone, allowing more solar and cosmic radiation to interact with the planet's surface and biosphere.25 The result from the larger cosmic and solar particle interaction with the atmosphere is reduced ozone and oxygen in the upper atmosphere, and increased radiation exposure at the surface, especially at higher latitudes.26 Other effects include increased mutation rates and higher amounts of UV radiation interacting with life on the surface.27 The combination of reduced ozone, oxygen, and increased radiation levels have adverse effects on the biosphere. The Laschamp-Mono Lake geomagnetic excursion event, for example, led to a 20%UV-B radiation increase at latitudes of 40-50 degrees, with atmospheric ozone levels decreasing by 20 to 40%.28 This research also saw increases in radiation reaching as far south as 30 degrees latitude, or near modern day Florida, which would encompass the majority of the United States.29 The harmful effects of radiation increases do not represent a direct threat to the United States but create their unique set of issues, which are reviewed in section IV. Before delving into the evaluation section, it is important to discuss the current state of geomagnetism monitoring programs. Geomagnetism Monitoring Programs The United States Geological Survey's (USGS) Geomagnetism Program and the European Space Agency's (ESA) SWARM satellite constellation represent the two most well- 9 funded and active geomagnetism monitoring programs. While regional programs exist, they are not on the same scale or scope for consideration. The USGS Geomagnetism Program consists of 14 ground-based observation stations that provide 24/7 real-time coverage of the Earth's magnetic field, with the majority of stations based in the United States and its territories.30 The 14 stations work and cooperate with INTERMAGNET, the International Real-Time Magnetic Observatory Network, which helps in coordinating the work done for collecting geomagnetism data around the globe.31 The result of the geomagnetism-monitoring program is the ability to monitor the Earth's magnetosphere down to the second, which is extremely helpful during solar geomagnetic storm events, and analyzing other phenomenon associated with the Earth's magnetic field.32 The current space-based monitoring system, ESA's SWARM satellite constellation, consists of three satellites that monitor the Earth's magnetosphere from orbit.33 Providing the most high resolution and accurate measurements of the Earth's magnetic field and crustal magnetic properties, SWARM will help in monitoring and assessing the every changing magnetosphere.34 The purpose of SWARM is to provide high resolution and extremely accurate measurements of the Earth's magnetosphere, along with regional variations in the crust. It does not provide monitoring data in real time like USGS's geomagnetism monitoring program. The combination of both monitoring programs allows geologists to monitor and continually assess the on-going changes occurring the geomagnetic field. While unprecedented in their accuracy and speed, these measurement systems nonetheless do not permit any measure of future prediction capability. 10 Pole Reversal Acknowledgements Before beginning the evaluation section, it is important to recognize some key issues concerning polarity reversals. Despite huge advancements in technology over the last several hundred years, there is much regarding the Earth system that geoscientists do not know. The first and most important acknowledgment concerns reversal timeframes and frequency of occurrence. Research has shown that reversals can complete in as little as 100 years or take as long as several thousand years.35 There is no standard or"normal"polarity reversal, with no two-reversal events being identical in duration due to the periodic and unpredictable nature of the Earth's geodynamo. During the Earth's history, there have been periods of high reversal frequency, as that seen during the last 40 million years, and periods where the field remained stable for millions of years, as during the Cretacious superchron. The core does not reverse at periodic or predictable intervals, making it impossible to forecast the duration and intensity of the next reversal event based on the geological record. The second acknowledgment is that there is no way to predict a polarity reversal. The technology needed for prediction does not exist, and current measurement systems are passive, in that they only record the strength of the field. Geologists studying reversals are hampered by the time frame of accurate field measurements as well, which go back 400 years and represent less than 0.0001% of the overall age of the Earth at 4.6 billion years old. The most advanced computer systems available today cannot predict or simulate all the complex dynamics of the Earth's core, as the timescales, lengths and inputs needed are impossible to replicate given current technology.36 While computer simulations have been successful at modeling some aspects of the geodynamo,no system has been powerful enough to model all necessary variables.37 Until computer processor technology increases in capability, geoscientists can only simulate certain aspects or specific properties of the Earth's core. The issue is complicated 11 further by the inability to access the interior of the Earth. The deepest drill holes on record do not penetrate the Earth's crust, meaning geologists and other geoscientists must interpret seismic waves to build a picture of the Earth's interior. While new methods in seismic tomography have created detailed views of the Earth's interior down to the core-mantle boundary,none have mapped the inner and outer core to the degree needed to confirm the geodynamo theory. Scientific knowledge and technological capabilities limit geologists from being able to predict the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. The understanding of the Earth is both constrained by technological capabilities and by the length and complexity of measurements. Knowing when the next reversal will occur and predicting its timeframe for completion are two areas outside current scientific capabilities. As such, this research is left setting reversal parameters that may not mirror those during the next geomagnetic pole reversal. 12 Section III — Evaluation Research Criteria The evaluation criteria selected for this research have a focus grounded at the national level. The research focuses on assessing the impacts to United States national security by evaluating six major areas for each effect discussed: 1. Communication Systems 2. Satellite Constellations 3. Electrical Power Grid 4. Agriculture and the Food Chain 5. Economic Infrastructure 6. Response Preparedness With each impact area, the report evaluates the damages to national security based on the six criteria. After the evaluation, the report assesses United States preparedness for the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. While not an all-inclusive list, the criteria provide a means of evaluating the various impacts occurring to United States national security resulting from pole reversals. This research has covered the science behind the Earth's geomagnetic field, the details of geomagnetic polarity reversals, and the evaluation criteria; it is now time to analyze how geomagnetic polarity reversal impacts would affect United States national security. 13 Section IV — National Security Impacts This portion of the report evaluates two impact scenarios involving pole reversal effects. The first scenario discusses how extreme space weather would damage United States national security during a reversal, and the second examines the effects occurring in the biosphere from increased levels of solar and cosmic radiation. This research assumes a polarity reversal timeframe where the magnetic field begins a significant decrease in strength and rapid directional change now, with the reversal process taking several hundred years to complete. io it 011b PA40 2000/02/27 01:54 "` Figure 4. SOHO image of Coronal Mass Ejection. Reprinted from EarthSky.org, http://earthsky.org/space/what-are-coronal- mass-et ections(accessed 22 November 2015). Severe Space Weather Event The most serious pole reversal effect is the weakening of the geomagnetic field, which decreases in strength by 90 percent during the reversal process.38 With a reversal lasting several hundred years, the greatest threat to United States national security would arise from adverse space weather. While the term space weather extends beyond the Sun's influence to include 14 charged particles, cosmic rays, and other phenomena, this research focuses on the danger posed by coronal mass ejections (CMEs).39 CMEs are enormous clouds of charged plasma with magnetic fields ejected into space from the Sun's corona.40 These plasma clouds crash into the Earth's magnetosphere, causing geomagnetic storms, which disturb and distort the magnetic field.41 CMEs create both geomagnetic storms and geomagnetically induced currents, which have devastating impacts on electrical components and other aspects of the infrastructure.42 While CMEs are only a part of the space weather environment, they pose the greatest risk to the Earth during the reversal period. The strongest CME to hit Earth in the modern era was the 1859 Carrington event, which disrupted telegraph services around the northern hemisphere causing machines to catch fire, operator injuries, and created auroras as far south as Cuba.43 A more modern example is the 1989 collapse of the Quebec Hydro-Electric plant, which failed in 90 seconds after a solar storm ejection event, leaving millions of Canadians without power for nine hours.44 This failure occurred despite the CME being only a quarter as strong as the Carrington event in 1859.45,46 Both events occurred at geomagnetic field strength levels much higher than would be present during a pole reversal. The likelihood of a CME striking the Earth during a polarity reversal is very high. During the 11-year solar cycle, the Sun produces one ejection per week at solar minimum, with 2 to 3 events per day at solar maximum.47 In a 200-year period for polarity reversal completion, the Sun would produce a minimum of 10,000 CME events assuming solar minimum numbers, with several superstorm events like the one in 1859.48 As stated by renowned Physicist Dr. Michio Kaku, the United States is, "...playing Russian roulette with the Sun. Sooner or later we are going to lose that bet..." with devastating effects that would push the industrialized world back into the 18th century.49'5° Coronal mass ejections and other space weather events pose a 15 threat to the Earth with a magnetic field at normal levels, with no research exploring the impact of extreme space weather during a geomagnetic reversal. The Laschamp and Mono Lake geomagnetic excursions provide a means of assessing how the field would change, with radiation and cosmic ray levels increasing in areas as far south as Florida.51 The effects of any CME event during a reversal would be felt at much farther south latitudes than those experienced with a field at average strength. It is important to note that the numbers and figures provided are for conditions with an average geomagnetic field strength. Research conducted on severe space weather has not considered the possibility of a drastically weakened geomagnetic field. With the effects of space weather extending farther south and the severity of the impacts increasing,the information provided is a best-case scenario with the real cost likely to be significantly higher. Communication Systems The first infrastructure area to suffer from an ejection event during a pole reversal would be the communications infrastructure. The consequences would extend from cell phone services to radio communications systems, to satellite-based C2, to systems utilized by land-based assets, aircraft and ships at sea. The weakened magnetic field would allow an ejection to interfere more with HF, UHF, VHF and satellite timing signals, resulting in experiences more severe than the 2003 Halloween solar storm, which disrupted the FAA's GPS WAAS navigation system for 30 hours.52 Frequency blackout regions closer to the poles would force airlines to reroute aircraft from the quicker polar routes to slower options farther south, incurring significant costs in increased flight hours and fue1.53 Military operations would suffer much as they did when a minor solar storm hit during Operation DESERT STORM, which disrupted call for fire requests for several hours in combat.54 Communications that rely on the ionosphere for the propagation of radio waves would encounter difficulties due to the instabilities created in the atmosphere by 16 the mass ejection.55 Cell phones and devices utilizing cellular connections would have communications interrupted as well, due to the disruption of GPS timing signals needed for current cell network function.56 These effects do not even take into account the possibility of satellites and ground stations losing power, or suffering irreparable damage in the geomagnetic storm triggered by the CME. A best-case scenario would be lost communications across a wide area of the United States for several hours in the event of a short duration mass ejection event. A worst-case scenario would see the effects of the CME and resulting geomagnetic storm destroying communications satellites and the electrical power grid, which could take out communications capabilities for weeks or months. The reduced ability of United States forces to communicate would have detrimental effects on operations not only in the United States but around the world. Military operations and first responders would have communications difficulties during and after the ejection event. Areas such as ICBM missile field defense and flying operations critical for the security of the nation would have communications capabilities severely hampered or destroyed due to the effects of the CME. Assuming a worst-case Carrington CME strike, the United States would have difficulties with communications systems for weeks, if not months. United States command and control capabilities would certainly suffer due to the effects of the solar storm. The impacts to communications systems are only the tip of the iceberg for damaging effects to United States national security. Satellite Infrastructure The world's satellite constellations would be extremely vulnerable to severe space weather during a reversal. With an estimated 250 satellite constellations representing an investment of$75 billion dollars and revenue stream of$25 billion to $80 billion dollars per 17 year, the satellite grid is one of the most expensive pieces of the United States infrastructure.57'58 The decreased strength of the magnetic field would expose satellites to the full brunt of a CME event. With a field reduced down to 10% of its average strength, the magnetosphere would allow larger amounts of radiation from the solar wind to interact with satellites.59 Numerous issues would arise well before any space weather event hit the Earth. The time dedicated to dealing with satellite anomalies, which under normal conditions comprises around 40 percent of satellite operators time, would surge under the increased interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere.60 Failures of satellites would increase due to electrostatic spacecraft charging from fluctuations in the solar wind, which would also swell in numbers under the weak field conditions.61 The weakening of the magnetosphere would allow more radiation to interact with the atmosphere, with a corresponding increase in temperature and density, causing more satellites to de-orbit and burn up.62 The decreasing strength of the magnetosphere would cause increased satellite failures, equipment anomalies and satellite de- orbits well outside those experienced in this last century. A CME event as strong as Carrington occurring with an average strength geomagnetic field would cause an estimated $100 billion dollars in damage, triggering satellite failures, de- orbits, and degradation of any systems that survived the event.63 The solar panels of existing satellites would sustain damage from energetic particles, causing power availability decreases and overall diminished operational life spans.64 This degradation would affect any satellites utilizing solar energy, civilian or military. The estimates for the number of failures vary, with minimum assessments predicting well over 100 hundred satellites failures and de-orbits.65 No studies have analyzed CME impacts on satellite constellations during a geomagnetic polarity reversal, but the failure rate would undeniably be higher due to the significantly weakened 18 magnetic field and corresponding adverse effects on the upper atmosphere. Therefore, these numbers represent a best-case scenario for impacts to the satellite infrastructure. The effects on national security would be widespread, with GPS, communications, television, internet and other services performed by the nation's satellite constellations disrupted for hours, days or destroyed by the solar storm. Devices and systems relying on GPS to function, such as oceanic drilling rigs and cell phone logistics tracking networks would fail, as well as various other critical infrastructures in the US which rely on GPS timing signals to operate.66 There would be impacts for years with increased numbers of satellite failures, de-orbits, and increased operating costs. In essence, the United States and the world's satellite constellations would be extremely vulnerable to the effects of space weather during the reversal process. The increased costs of operating satellites in the reduced strength magnetosphere environment would economically hurt the United States and other nations. The impact of such an event with a full strength magnetic field already poses a grave risk to the satellite infrastructure, let alone the enhanced effects with a weakened and Mars-like magnetic field. The $100 billion dollar damage cost estimate is a baseline to start from, with the likely damage being much worse. The dangers of a weakened magnetic field extend to other infrastructure areas as well. Electrical Power Grid Next to the costs of damages to the satellite infrastructure, the electrical power grid represents the next infrastructure area with significant vulnerabilities. A CME hitting with the strength of the 1859 Carrington event during a polarity reversal could send over half of the United States back into the 18th century, leaving millions without electricity for days, weeks or years. With the increase in the interaction of energetic particles with the atmosphere extending down to 30 degrees latitude, a larger portion of the electrical power grid would have contact with 19 geomagnetically induced currents created by the geomagnetic storm.67 Current estimates of damage to the power grid during a massive CME event place at least 130 million Americans without power for 12-24 hours, assuming no significant damage to the nation's extremely high voltage (EHV) transformers.68 However, damage is likely to occur to a considerable number of these high voltage transformers with a substantially weakened magnetic field, driven by the higher prevalence of geomagnetically induced currents, which overload EHV transformers and other electrical components.69 Out of an estimated 2000 EHV transformers in the United States, a minimum of 350 could face irreparable damage or failure.70'71 The greatest probability of long-term harm to the power grid is created through the destruction of these EHV transformers, as the cost per unit ranges from $2 to $7.5 million dollars, with times approaching 12 months or longer for manufacture; any widespread damage of the electrical grid could have grave repercussions for the nation.72'73 It would take months or years before the damaged transformers could be replaced, with initial efforts to restore power hampered by the existing electrical failures disrupting everything from the delivery of water to fuel.74 Even with a best-case scenario of half of the affected population regaining power within 12 to 24 hours, there would still be 60 million or more Americans without electricity for weeks, months or years.75 The costs of widespread power outages and regions without electricity for months would be extremely harmful to the country. For example, in a single four-hour blackout in France, an estimated$1 billion dollars was lost; in the August 2003 blackout affecting the Northeast United States, an estimated$10 billion dollars was lost.76'77 Damages from widespread power outages affecting half of the United States population could cost the nation $1 to $2 trillion dollars in the first year alone, with recovery times approaching ten years or more.78 These estimates are also contingent upon the effects occurring at 50 degrees latitude, which is much higher than the 30 degrees of latitude where the effects would extend down to during a geomagnetic pole reversa1.79 20 The lack of shielding exposes more of the nation's power grid to the brunt of the CME and leads to an increase in the number of affected Americans past the 130 million estimate. To speculate on the exact increase in affected areas and damage to the United States is beyond the capability of this research, but would certainly be worse. The effects would also extend to military and national security organizations. With power outages extending into months and possibly years for a large portion of the nation, vital military installations, and government agencies would feel the effects. Government services in the affected regions would cease function until restoration of power. With battery backups and generators only lasting up to 7 days,bases and installations would have to find ways of obtaining fuel, water, and other necessities shut off by the electrical failures.80 Military bases rely more on privatized electrical power delivery than at any time in the nation's history.81 Without water, fuel, sanitation services and electricity to execute the mission, many facilities and organizations would need to get creative to maintain operational effectiveness. The country would be vulnerable as it focused on the worst national disaster in United States history. The failure of the electrical grid in a Carrington style event during a polarity reversal would cost a minimum of$2 trillion dollars with at least 60 million Americans in a complete electrical blackout for months. Months, years and decades would pass before a full recovery could occur in the electrical power grid. The effects would extend to other infrastructure areas as well. 21 0 •. Nsk .' fialk t 444. 111 -agi!fi4N.44100F41k:;': 4AIMILAMIII70191:17:11; , s /011,- 41 . ,I 111( piri \ ' kms;A. 4) [ ` A►v 4. 4 -lrov zfoli, yes. . iiii 10lh. 1 ' * 1¼I7 No'Areas of Probable Power System Collapse n ),IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Figure 5. Areas of Power System Collapse. The lines indicate areas of the power grid likely to collapse during a Carrington style coronal mass ejection event. Reprinted from NASA Science News,http://science.nasa.gov/science- news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/(accessed 22 November 2015). Agriculture and the Food Chain The nation depends on electricity to produce and consume food. A culture of omnipresent grocery stores,pervasive refrigerators,just in time grocery deliveries and electrically powered agriculture means the nation is highly susceptible to any long-term power outage. Food without refrigeration can stay fresh for only a few days, with most grocery stores depending on weekly deliveries of refrigerated products, showing that food distribution to the affected populations would be hard hit. Additionally, many regions in the country depend on electrically driven center pivot irrigation systems to grow crops. This, combined with a lack of water, gasoline, and other necessities has the potential for grave consequences. Many Americans have enough food to last a week, but the impacts of a long-term electrical blackout would extend for months, possibly leading to food starvation and anarchy in the regions hit hardest by the CME. With 12%percent of the nation living without extended food stores for more than one 22 day, and a minimum of 130 million Americans affected by a Carrington style event hitting during a reversal, there is the potential for millions of deaths.82 Scenes of looting and fighting as seen in Hurricane Katrina could be the norm in areas without food, water, and necessities for an extended period. A large number of Americans would die due to the extent and severity of the disaster. It is hard to ascertain the exact impact an electrical power outage would have on the nation's agriculture. Modern agricultural equipment is dependent on the electrical and satellite infrastructure to operate; GPS devices, electronic soil monitors and computer driven GIS solutions power the modern farmer and his equipment.83 A simultaneous blackout of GPS signals and loss of electrical energy could end or severely hamper agricultural production in vast areas of the nation. As the majority of the country's crop growing regions extend above 30 degrees latitude, they would feel the effects of any mass ejection event. With 40% of the crops produced in the nation with center-pivot systems, there is the potential for both significant economic losses, and the inability to produce crops, as many regions utilizing the center-pivot systems were not able to support crops with rainwater before their invention.84 The nation's dependence on electricity and new technologies is a tremendous vulnerability, even in the agricultural sector of the infrastructure. The impacts of a large ejection event occurring in the midst of a polarity reversal has the potential to create the greatest humanitarian crisis in the nation's history, and could lead to riots, looting, and anarchy in the affected regions. It is impossible to say with certainty how many Americans could die during such an event, but it is highly likely that the 12% of the 60 million Americans without power would be very vulnerable to starvation.85 Defeating the cascading effects of a total electrical blackout would require a national response that is both well prepared and well-coordinated. 23 While the impacts to agriculture, communications, electrical and the satellite infrastructures are severe, the economy would be one of the areas hardest hit. Economic Infrastructure The combined effects of losses in the satellite, electrical and agricultural infrastructures resulting from a worst-case CME event hitting the Earth during a reversal could spell disaster for the nation's economy. The August 2003 blackout affecting the Northeast United States, which lasted for two days and affected 45 million Americans, totaled an estimated$10 billion dollars in lost revenue.86 Estimates of the economic impact with a full strength geomagnetic field begin at $2 trillion dollars in the first year alone.87 This estimate, which is based on 130 million Americans seeing the effects of adverse space weather, is likely lower than would be seen during a geomagnetic polarity reversal. It is very likely the real economic loss would be at least several trillion dollars in the first year alone, not including the costs extended over years and possibly decades to obtain a full recovery. The combined impacts to the satellite, communications, and electrical infrastructure would see costs resulting from the event lasting decades. All economic activities dependent upon electricity and the internet would cease to operate in the aftermath of the blackout. Stock exchanges, gas stations, grocery stores, websites and telecommunications industries would all suffer or stop due to the effects of satellite damage and electrical blackout. Key global trade links running on undersea fiber optic cables would see damage, severing global internet and commerce ties.88 The airline industry would have to deal simultaneously with hazardous space weather effects in flight and seek to continue operations to locations without electrical power.89 Satellite,power, and communications companies would incur costs over $100 billion dollars through damages to equipment and replacement expenses in the years and decades after the event.90 The hub of trade and activity in the modern era, the internet, would halt in the affected areas. Nearly every aspect of the interconnected and 24 electrified modern society would see detrimental effects from a Carrington-class mass ejection event hitting the Earth during a pole reversal. In short, the impacts to the United States would easily exceed $2 trillion dollars in the first year alone.91 This figure does not take into account the cumulative effect of the weakened magnetic field, which would incur increased costs over time with satellite, communications and power infrastructures failures brought on by the increased penetration and interaction of the solar wind with the magnetosphere and atmosphere. Predicting the severity of long-term effects and lasting economic damage is hard to ascertain,but would most definitively be debilitating for at least several years after the event. Response Preparedness The nation is ill prepared to handle a disaster on the scale of a CME direct hit during a geomagnetic reversal. Despite the known threat of space weather on the nation's interconnected and electrically dependent infrastructures, there has been hardly any action during the last several decades. The government is hampered by a lack of any national risk assessments for geomagnetic storms, space weather events or pole reversals.92 Furthermore, there is no office coordinating the work of developing risk mitigation and analysis measures within the federal government.93 A federal intra-agency response plan for geomagnetic and space weather events does not exist at the current time. Furthermore, the nation still does not have a long-term all hazards considered power outage response or recovery plan,both of which would help in preparing for any space weather events with or without a degraded geomagnetic field.94 While the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and the Air Force's Weather Agency provide space weather event prediction capabilities for civilian and government agencies, the data is still limited by the enormous volume of space and sparse coverage of ground-based assets.95 While the USGS geomagnetism-monitoring program provides 25 measurements of the Earth's magnetosphere during space weather events, it does not have any capability for predicting the future behavior of the magnetic field. The NOAA, Air Force, and USGS products provide a means of preparing and predicting for some aspects of a worst case space weather scenario but are ineffective due to deficiencies in the nation's infrastructures. The electrical power infrastructure lacks the ability to both monitor and assess the strength of geomagnetically induced currents and the ability to control power generation, transmission and distribution across the nation during geomagnetic storm events.96 The inability to coordinate mitigation actions across the nation's overloaded power grid would contribute to system collapse. Furthermore, there is still debate in the scientific community regarding how space weather events would affect infrastructure areas.97 The nation further suffers from response and recovery plans unprepared for the scope and scale of the disaster. With over 130 million Americans impacted by a worst-case CME event hitting during a reversal, FEMA, DHS, and other government agency responses would simply be unable to cope with the vast logistics needed to provide water and food to the affected areas. Current products at FEMA and DHS do not factor in widespread power failures in areas such as the Northeast corridor of the United States, which would be vulnerable to any space weather events during a polarity reversal. Command and control for response and recovery operations with long-term electrical power failures, limited satellite communications, and infrastructure collapse would be ineffective or severely hampered. If the Hurricane Katrina and Sandy disasters are a measure of response capabilities, then it is likely that FEMA and other responding organizations would have difficulties with communications and organizing relief efforts." The Hurricane Sandy relief efforts epitomize the difficulties, with FEMA personnel sitting for four days after the event due to poor organization and command and control.99 Even though the scale of the disaster was much smaller than a blackout affecting 130 million Americans, many citizens 26 were still without power and water for three months after the event, with some even living in tent cities.10° If the same lack of organization and command and control were to prevail in the aftermath of a large solar storm event, then tens of millions of Americans would be without clean water, sanitation services and power for months or years. Given the response efforts for Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina, combined with the lack of adequate planning and action products at FEMA and DHS, it is unlikely that the nation would be able to respond adequately to any large-scale disaster scenario. Simply stated, the scale and scope of the disaster exceed any existing planning products available, with past response efforts calling into question the capability of the government to respond to a disaster affecting over half of the nation's population.101 Magnitude of the nondipole field (1995.0) .. �_ W. —.77 ; A,' , ,,_,,.,, , c 30' f ... 30• ) �/ liv/ ' lis) 1 Illi Q- _ I ti 1 � J . -30° w.. \ -60 -- ...._. ...__ C F 7 -20000 -10000 0 8000 18000 nT ...... Figure 6. Magnetic Map of the Earth. Note the non-uniform nature of the geomagnetic field,especially over the South Atlantic region. Reprinted from Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ, German Research Centre for Geosciences,http://op.gfz-potsdam.de/champ/media CHAMP/luehr_l_nondipolar.gif(accessed 22 November 2015). 27 Increases in Cosmic and Solar Radiation While extreme space weather events like the 1859 Carrington CME pose the greatest risk to the nation during a reversal, the weakening of the magnetosphere by itself is still dangerous for national security. A weakened geomagnetic field increases solar and cosmic radiation interacting with the atmosphere and biosphere. The weakening is significant for two reasons: 1) the increased interaction of the solar wind and space weather with the magnetosphere, atmosphere, and biosphere, and 2) increased levels of UV radiation reaching as far south as 30 degrees latitude.'°2 While the impacts are not as severe as the previous scenario, they nonetheless would have detrimental effects on national security. Communication Systems Increases in radiation entering the Earth's atmosphere would have adverse effects on communications systems based on the changes in the magnetosphere. While the real risk to the communications infrastructure comes from CMEs striking the Earth,there would still be impacts arising from the reduced strength magnetic field. The weakening of the magnetosphere by up to 90% and the dynamic nature of the Sun ensure that the Earth would see more effects from small-scale solar events.103 Galactic cosmic rays, solar flares and radiation storms from the sun would have varying effects on communications systems. Small scale space weather events would likely cause problems such as ionospheric scintillation, which are fluctuations in the atmosphere caused by ionization that would impair HF and other communications that utilize the atmosphere to propagate radio signals.loo,los Radio blackout events resulting from the emission of x-rays and extreme ultraviolet radiation from the Sun would interact to a greater degree with the atmosphere, 28 increasing the frequency of outages.106 With approximately 2,000 emissions per 11-year solar cycle, there would be many opportunities during a 200-year reversal period for these events to disable and disrupt communications systems.107 Communications interruptions, as a result, would be more commonplace during the reversal period. The communications difficulties encountered during operation DESERT STORM are an analog for how operations would be impaired in an environment with a weakened magnetosphere. The 41-day conflict witnessed over 80 solar flares that interrupted UHF and SATCOM communications for minutes and hours at a time.108 Routine outages of communications could be common as the magnetic field weakens, triggering less reliability for critical systems used in war and during peacetime operations. In particular, the airline industry would have to re-route flights to avoid blackout areas, which not only incurs costs but adds to flight safety dangers. Whether on land, sea, air or space, communications would see disruptions during the reversal period. While the costs associated with such cumulative damage and interruptions are hard to quantify, they would undoubtedly incur economic and operational expenses in the civilian and military sectors. The net result of a weakened magnetic field would be increased frequency and duration of communications blackouts around the world, not just in the United States. Satellite Infrastructure The greatest potential for damage to national security during a reversal resides in the satellite infrastructure. Increased amounts of solar and cosmic radiation interacting with satellite constellations would add costs to the construction and operation of satellite systems. With a normal strength magnetosphere, operators already see 40% of their time devoted to fixing anomalies associated with space weather events; electrostatic discharge, solar panel degradation and atmospheric changes leading to de-orbit are a few of the issues that would 29 increase in severity during a polarity reversal.109 Satellite designs are built based on predetermined rates of degradation; any significant rise in radiation would reduce the 15-year average operational life of satellite systems.11° Solar flares would pose the greatest threat to satellite constellations outside of CME events during the reversal process. During a two-century period, the Sun would eject over 40,000 M to X-class flares.'11 While flare events are smaller in their impact than large CMEs, they still damage satellite operations. The 2001 Bastille Day X- Class flare event is an example of how smaller scale flares can negatively affect satellite operations, with GPS position errors approaching 20 to 40 meters for several hours."Z Position errors of this degree are more than enough to negatively affect navigation for air, maritime and land-based assets. The warfighter would see the effects as well, with systems reliant on GPS for targeting or navigation being much less efficient due to position errors approaching 120 feet. The FAA's GPS WAAS navigation system and other systems that rely on satellites would see similar effects, although the duration and extent of the impact would be less than that experienced during a large CME event.113 During a 200-year reversal with normal solar activity, there would be at least 3,500 X-Class flares with the same potential as the Bastille Day event.' With a geomagnetic field filtering less radiation from the solar wind and allowing the charged particles to interact with the atmosphere to a larger degree, it is likely that lower class flare events would produce more damage. The net result is an increase in damage to satellite constellations with minor space weather events, with a corresponding increase in the cost to build, launch and maintain satellites. While it is impossible to estimate an exact value, it is evident that a weakened magnetosphere would not only lead to an increase in the price to operate in space, it would render those systems less reliable. 30 While the satellite infrastructure would be damaged by a weakened magnetosphere, the electrical power grid represents another infrastructure area that would be vulnerable. Electrical Power Grid Along with the satellite infrastructure, the power grid is susceptible to damage resulting from a geomagnetic reversal. More specifically, the frequency and duration of geomagnetically induced currents and localized magnetic fields could enhance and increase damage from space weather events. The transition geomagnetic field would have numerous north and south polarity regions distributed across the globe. The effect would be a greater ability for geomagnetic storms caused by space weather to induce ground level electric fields, which drive geomagnetically induced currents.115 As transformer failures correspond with increases in solar activity, a decrease in geomagnetic field strength would lead to increased failure rates.116 While it is impossible to say how many transformers could fail, the failure rate would correspond directly with activity of geomagnetically induced currents. Even a small increase in geomagnetically induced current activity related to solar storms would cause damages in the electrical grid of millions of dollars per year, assuming only a few transformers are damaged. An increase in severity and frequency of geomagnetically induced currents damaging the electrical grid is the likely result of a weakened geodynamo. More transformer failures, blackouts, and damage to the interconnected electrical power grid are the results of such a change in the Earth's geodynamo. While the weakening of the magnetosphere would incur costs on the satellite, communications, and electrical infrastructure areas, there could be damaging effects to the food chain as well. 31 Agriculture and the Food Chain An increase in radiation could have detrimental consequences for human life and the food chain. The first and most notable effect of a weakened magnetic field deals with ozone and oxygen in the upper atmosphere, which filter out the majority of radiation from space. The combination of weak magnetic field and regular solar flare storms could deplete the atmosphere's ability to filter out ultraviolet radiation for several years. An analog to what the nation could face are the Laschamp-Mono Lake geomagnetic excursion events, which saw UV radiation increases of 40% at latitudes of 40-50 degrees.117 Ozone losses reached 40% in the upper atmosphere, leading to surges in radiation at northern latitudes in the United States and Europe.118 The decrease in ozone was the result of the weakened field, which allowed solar flares and CMEs to strip away ozone and oxygen in the upper atmosphere.119 Even a small reduction in ozone could have harmful consequences, with research showing a 1%reduction in ozone corresponding to a 3% increase in skin cancer rates, and a 1- 2% increase in melanoma mortality.120 With space weather effects extending down as far as 30 degrees latitude, or near present day Florida, and the majority of the United States exposed to increases in radiation, a 40% decrease in ozone levels in the atmosphere could create a significant rise in skin cancer rates and deaths.121,122 The damages would extend to other areas as well, with more cardiac deaths and dementia cases reported after geomagnetic storms.123 Skin cancer, cardiac deaths and cases of dementia would all increase during a pole reversal event. The food chain would see faunal extinctions of small organisms called Radiolaria in the ocean correlating to reversal events.124 It is unclear how this would affect the food chain for humans, but could have more far-reaching effects within the ocean food chain. A more salient risk to the food chain comes in the form of radiation, with increased UV-A/B radiation correlating to stunted crop growth, tissue damage and smaller plant yields.125 While not all 32 species of plants are damaged by radiation, it is possible that a substantial surge of UV-A/B radiation entering the biosphere could have widespread adverse effects on plant growth, especially at higher latitudes. The larger amounts of radiation entering the biosphere has the potential to increase skin cancer rates and would pose a threat to small ocean creatures and some species of plants, although it is unlikely the damages would harm national security to any significant degree. Economic Infrastructure A reversal would negatively affect the nation's economy during the reversal period. The satellite and electrical infrastructures could see spikes in operating and equipment costs easily in the millions of dollars. Airlines could see cost increases brought on by outages of navigation systems and by having to re-route flights due to radiation hazards in the atmosphere. With the cost of a commercial satellite averaging $500 million dollars and the cost per diverted or re- routed flights costing anywhere from $10,000 to $100,000 dollars per event, there is the potential for economic injuries to rise into the millions of dollars during the reversal period.126 The satellite infrastructure would be hit hard with an average economic gain of a satellite over its lifetime topping $1 billion dollars; even a few losses of satellites could increase the economic impact on the nation.'z' With only a fraction of the potential economic damage areas considered, the price to the country over the reversal period could easily top several billions of dollars. While the effects of a weakened magnetosphere are not damaging enough to compromise the national security of the United States, they would still incur economic losses, especially to the electrical and satellite infrastructures, which could see millions to billions of dollars in losses. 33 Response Preparedness The nation would likely be able to respond to the damages brought on by a weakened geomagnetic field without a large space weather event. Electrical power failures and satellite damages, while increasing in frequency and severity, would not create any widespread disaster scenarios. Furthermore, the increases in skin cancer and mutation rates would not pose a significant hazard. Regional and national response plans from FEMA, DHS, and other organizations are capable of handling these small scale blackouts created by solar flare events, and could respond within their current capabilities. The cumulative effects occurring during the geomagnetic reversal would likely see several minor blackout events as the most severe side effect of the reversal. While the weakening of the magnetosphere has the potential to damage United States national security, it would not pose a direct threat to the nation in the end. 34 Section V — Conclusions It is clear that the geomagnetic field plays an irreplaceable role in protecting the atmosphere and biosphere of the Earth. Coronal mass ejections, solar flares, galactic cosmic rays and other space weather events that are normally filtered by an average strength geomagnetic field become an increasingly larger problem with a magnetosphere at ten percent of average strength.128 American society is especially susceptible to any decrease in magnetic field strength, with many important aspects of modern civilization relying on satellites and the electrical power grid to operate. Electricity keeps food fresh,pumps water, and is essential in filtering wastewater to reduce disease. It also runs irrigation and agricultural equipment,powers the internet, provides heating and cooling, and intertwines with all aspects of day-to-day life. The satellite infrastructure has revolutionized warfare and allowed for precise navigation for oceanic drilling rigs, farm equipment, and all number of GPS-enabled devices. The nation is dependent upon electricity and the technologies it enables to power the economy, navigation, communications systems, agriculture and a myriad of other infrastructure areas. Any significant disruption in electrical energy delivery and access would devastate the nation. A large CME hitting the Earth during a reversal would be the worst natural disaster to strike the country in its history. Satellite damages would be a minimum of$100 billion dollars, electrical infrastructure damages would exceed $1 billion dollars, and the nation would lose $2 trillion dollars in the first year alone in economic losses. National security would suffer as FEMA, DHS, and other federal agencies struggled to deal with an electrical power blackout affecting over half of the nation's population. 60 million Americans would be without electricity 35 for weeks, months or years. The effects would detrimentally affect everything from water delivery to sanitation services, to communications capabilities, to the provisioning of food in the affected areas. A full recovery could take years or decades and would be unlike anything seen in the history of the nation. Even without a once or twice per century Carrington CME event hitting the Earth during a reversal, the nation would still be at the mercy of solar weather. Solar flares,radio blackouts, increases in radiation and small ejection events would each impose a different set of damages on the nation. Satellite infrastructure and electrical power grid damages could easily extend into the billions of dollars. Crops grown in northern regions could see yields reduced through cellular damage brought on by increased UV radiation. Skin cancer rates would increase exponentially as the atmosphere's ozone and oxygen were steadily stripped away by solar flares and the solar wind. While not as devastating for the nation, a weakened magnetosphere would incur cumulative damages on the nation into the billions of dollars. The background evidence of geomagnetic pole reversal frequency, the weakening trend in the magnetosphere, and the known harmful effects of space weather paint a picture of disastrous consequences the likes of which have never been seen by the nation before. Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, hurricanes and other natural phenomena have far less impact than a reversal could have on the nation. With the background information, evidence and data in mind, there are three conclusions drawn from this research report: 1) The country is not prepared for the next geomagnetic pole reversal, 2) The magnetic field safeguards the nation, and 3)Prediction capabilities are lacking. 36 Four Minutes of a Super Storm - March 13, 1989 • March 13.1989 -- Akt rich Hardy13,1989 - MatoteCh 07:47:00 UT • _:IW rw..fitl.. 07:43:00 UT ..•i.J►w..S.:ni r.. •_ • �}�`�• 'y• ,• LAK 1.. '.• '' '%'+•y� r "Warr 1989 - - .Merotech "Mgt= 07:44:o0Ur ia.•I.a....sas... - 07:46:000t•• Ili(I (helm (.ullap5, - Figure 7. 1989 Solar Storm Progression.Images depict the progression of the March 1989 Quebec Solar Storm. Reprinted from Metatech Corporation, http://www.metatechcorp.com/aps/AAAS_Press_Brie£htm(accessed 22 November 2015). Conclusion #1: The Nation is Not Prepared The nation is ill-prepared and extremely vulnerable to the impacts created as a result of geomagnetic polarity reversals. Despite the massive threat of space weather and the clear signs of a rapidly weakening magnetosphere, the nation has moved at a slow pace to address the threat. The President's October 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and National Space Weather Action Plan finally addresses the issue and sets the framework for dealing with space weather, but national response would be ineffective if a mass ejection event were to happen now. FEMA and DHS do not have the planning products, frameworks or capabilities in place to deal with such a large-scale event. There is also a troubling lack of national risk assessments considering geomagnetic reversals or adverse space weather as a threat to the nation. The country has done nothing to research, prepare or plan for the next geomagnetic reversal, despite building evidence 37 that a reversal may occur in the near future. This fact, combined with FEMA's inability to handle events like Hurricane Katrina and Sandy has shown how vulnerable the nation is to large- scale disasters. Organizational dysfunction and the mishandling of the response and recovery efforts would likely lead to the affected areas suffering from lack of clean water, sanitation services and food, likely leading to riots and the deaths of many Americans. The emergency response capabilities are not the only area that is unprepared for the effects of a polarity reversal. The electrical power grid and satellite infrastructure stand to lose billions of dollars from losses brought on by a weakened magnetic field alone. Geomagnetically induced currents and normal space weather events would destroy or damage satellites and burn up costly EHV transformers. Changes in the ionosphere would routinely disable and disrupt communications around the globe. Crops in the higher latitudes would see damage with farmers having to seek out more robust plant species to stay in business. The electrical grid would be especially vulnerable as it continues the path to more interdependence. An inability to monitor and assess geomagnetically induced currents and adjust power transmission across the nation would lead to widespread damages.129 The satellite infrastructure would be vulnerable with systems designed for lower levels of radiation failing with the increased interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's atmosphere. From the power grid, to the satellite infrastructure, to federal disaster response, recovery and planning products, to nation risk assessments, the country is ill-prepared, ill-equipped and will be unable to respond to any large-scale disaster brought on by the weakening of the magnetosphere. Conclusion #2: The Magnetic Field and Modern Society The magnetosphere is essential for shielding the atmosphere and biosphere from the harmful effects of space. A field weakened to 10% of average strength would have disastrous 38 consequences for a nation that relies on satellites, communications systems, and an electrical grid to operate everything from the economy to weapons systems used in war.130 As the nation becomes more dependent upon electronics, the dual threat of a weakened magnetosphere and adverse space weather will only increase. While the Carrington event in 1859 only created inconveniences in communication around the globe, a mass ejection event on the same scale hitting the Earth during a pole reversal today could destroy over half of the electrical power grid, negatively impacting half of the population of the United States, and has the potential to kill tens of millions of Americans. No other natural disaster outside a meteorite impact or massive worldwide volcanism would have the same damaging effects on the nation. To say that the modem, electrified and connected society relies on the protection offered by the magnetic field is an understatement. Conclusion #3: Prediction Capabilities Even with knowledge of the rapid weakening of the magnetic field and the hazards posed by solar weather, the USGS and geoscientists remain unable to adequately predict the behavior of the magnetosphere. The only two large-scale geomagnetism monitoring programs, the USGS's Geomagnetism Monitoring Program and ESA's SWARM satellite constellation, only record field strength with no ability to predict the future behavior of the geodynamo. Computer systems are simply not fast enough to simulate and model all the necessary variables to predict the future behavior of the Earth's core. Geologists can only look back at the last 400 years of accurate measurements, and attempt to predict the future behavior of the magnetic field. Without prediction capabilities, geoscientists will be unable to say if the current weakening trend in the magnetosphere is a precursor to a pole reversal or a geomagnetic excursion. The lack of any prediction capability inhibits planning and preparation efforts that would be essential in mitigating the harmful effects of a polarity reversal. Developing monitoring and prediction 39 capabilities that give insight into the complex behavior of the inner and outer core should be a top priority for geoscientists. 40 Section VI — Recommendations Based on the research evaluation and findings, it is clear that the nation is not prepared for dealing with the negative consequences brought on by geomagnetic polarity reversals. Furthermore, it is also evident the country is not ready to respond to adverse space weather events. Therefore, it is critically important that the country address the threat adequately before a worst-case pole reversal and adverse space weather event occur simultaneously. To address the threat, the nation should focus on the following recommendations: 1) increasing geomagnetism funding, 2) developing the first real-time 3-D view of the Earth's core, 3) developing geomagnetic pole reversal response, recovery and risk plans at the national level, 4) establishing a "Global Geomagnetic Initiative," 5) improving space weather forecasting capabilities, 6) developing national electrical grid control measures, 7) hardening satellites and electrical transformers, and 8) make understanding the Earth a priority. If followed, these recommendations represent a pragmatic and comprehensive approach to addressing the threat posed by geomagnetic polarity reversals. Recommendation #1: Increase Geomagnetism Funding This first recommendation is to significantly increasing funding for both the USGS's Geomagnetism Monitoring Program and geomagnetism research. The 2015 USGS budget allocated $1.8 million dollars for the geomagnetism program, or a mere 0.00072% of the budget allocated for the Global Change Research Program (GCRP), which focuses on human impacts on the environment.131'132 Furthermore, the geomagnetism program budget has decreased by 10% since the year 2000.133 To place the geomagnetism budget in perspective, it receives 27 times less funding than the earthquake hazards program, 5 times less funding than USGS's invasive species initiatives, and 1,388 times less funding than the GCRP.134 A more robust and capable 41 geomagnetism monitoring program both helps monitor the changes in the Earth's core, and aids in measuring the localized variations in the magnetic field created as a result of solar storms. Doubling or tripling the USGS budget for geomagnetism would have the effect of not only increasing the capability to monitor the continual changes within the Earth's core, but would help in measuring and assessing geomagnetic storms created by adverse space weather. By expanding the number of stations and increasing the capability of the existing system, the USGS could provide enhanced data on electrical conductivity of the crust around the nation, and would support efforts to prepare and plan for the next reversal event. Increased funding for this program is essential not only for monitoring the magnetosphere,but helps to mitigate the effects of space weather. A robust and well-funded geomagnetism program is essential in both monitoring the Earth's geodynamo and helping to mitigate the damaging effects of space weather on the nation's infrastructures. As the Earth's core continues to move closer to a polarity reversal, the nation should emphasize geomagnetism research funding. The geodynamo theory will remain unproven until enough research and scientific advancements occur to determine the origin of the magnetic field. It is important to note that the geodynamo theory has yet to be conclusively proven. Furthermore, there are still many unanswered questions surrounding the behavior of the geodynamo. Reversal timeframes, inner and outer core behavior prior to the reversal process, and how the magnetic field evolves during a reversal are important areas of information essential for preparation and planning efforts that still need more research. Increasing the USGS research budget, grants for geomagnetism research, and supporting INTERMAGNET and other geomagnetic initiatives could pay off both in the short and long-term with a better understanding of the Earth. 42 Like global warming and climate change, the nation needs to emphasize the importance of the geosciences with appropriate funding. Recommendation #2: Develop a Real-Time 3-D View of Earth's Interior Understanding the interaction between the inner and outer core is essential for discovering how the geodynamo operates. For this reason, the United States should build the world's first real-time 3-D view of the core. This initiative would bear fruit in not only the realm of geomagnetism, but could help in explaining earthquakes, how volcanoes form and evolve, and give a better understanding of the mechanisms involved with plate tectonics. While the USGS Geomagnetism Program provides key information on the strength, orientation and evolving nature of the magnetosphere, it cannot give insight into the interaction of the outer and inner core. As research has shown that variations in heat flow and convection between the inner and outer core create the conditions for a reversal to occur, a real-time 3-D view of the Earth's inner and outer core could give the nation precious months or years to plan and prepare.135 Having the capability to monitor and assess the changes occurring in the Earth's core in real time would certainly add to the nation's understanding of its behavior and allow for prediction measures. To accomplish this task, the USGS should receive increased funding for their global seismograph network, invest in quantum computing, and explore new methods of imaging the interior of the Earth. The field of seismic tomography has evolved rapidly in the last several decades with the increased computational power of the personal computer. While the advancements have been significant in the last two decades, the computer systems available today are still not powerful enough to work in real time. Quantum computers, which promise to be many times more powerful than current systems, could be used to help develop an"Earth Observatory" to map, measure and investigate the interior of the Earth. Finally, the nation should invest in new technologies that can be used to image, understand and map the interior of 43 the Earth. Increasing the reliability and accuracy of seismic data and increasing computer speeds would go a long way toward allowing geoscientists to predict the behavior of the magnetosphere. In essence, the purpose of this recommendation is to build an "Earth Observatory" that would focus on monitoring the changes inside the planet. The creation of an observatory focused on the interior of the planet could help predict the future behavior of the core and unlock the mechanisms behind natural phenomena from volcanoes to earthquakes. The creation of an "Earth Observatory" is a critical step in developing the capability to predict the future behavior of the magnetosphere. Hotspot volcanic islands Seismic shear wave velocity Macdonald Samoa Marquesas Hawaibeneath the central Pacific Pitcairn 1 Tahiti Ocean ,.;,-1 floor O O o low-velocity . .; A fingers 00, Y Deep _ mantle _�ow-velocity " plumes Figure 8. 3-D View of Hawaii Hot Spot. This image shows the current state of seismic tomography capabilities.Reprinted from Phys.org, http://cdn.phys.org/newman/gfx/news/hires/2013/1-newmodelofea.jpghtm(accessed 04 December 2015). Recommendation #3: Develop Response, Recovery and Risk Mitigation Plans While addressing the funding, measurement and prediction capabilities for pole reversals are important, it will be imperative to develop response, recovery and risk mitigation plans at the national level to mitigate the negative aspects of pole reversals. More specifically, FEMA 44 should analyze the risks associated with pole reversals and include those on the Strategic National Risk Assessment. As the Strategic National Risk Assessment already includes tsunamis, volcanoes and earthquakes, the inclusion of reversals as another natural threat for consideration is logical. Furthermore, working together FEMA and DHS need to develop intra-agency plans for not only pole reversals, but for adverse space weather. Fortunately, the President's October 2015 National Space Weather Strategy does address this concern and calls for FEMA and DHS to work toward creating such products for adverse space weather, although it will be years before the plans are set and implemented. To develop response,recovery and hazard plans, the country needs to focus on four areas. First, the nation should explore and benchmark the various hazards associated with polarity reversals. Increasing funding for geomagnetism monitoring and research, along with creating an "Earth Observatory" are examples of how to execute this first step. Next, FEMA needs to create response and recovery plans addressing the side effects of polarity reversals to include a large- scale nation-wide blackout affecting over half of the population. Third, the country needs to establish protection and mitigation policies for the electrical power grid and satellite infrastructure. The creation of a national command center for the electrical and satellite infrastructures is an easy solution. Finally, the nation needs to focus on creating the ability to accurately predict the behavior of the Earth's core, and find ways of simulating all aspects of the geodynamo. The establishment of an"Earth Observatory" and focusing on increasing the power of computer systems would help in solving the mysteries of the geodynamo. This framework for action focuses on observing and understanding the Earth, then planning and mitigating the effects of a geomagnetic pole reversal. 45 In essence, the development of response, recovery, and risk mitigation plans only serves to further the knowledge of the Earth and better prepares the United States for the unpredictable and complex nature of the Earth system. Recommendation #4: Global Geomagnetic Initiative In line with efforts to create response, recovery, and risk mitigation plans, the United States should establish a "Global Geomagnetic Initiative." The purpose of this initiative would be two-fold: 1) to gather geoscience expertise on geomagnetism and polarity reversals from around the world, and 2) to standardize instrumentation. The United States has taken the lead on climate change and global warming, and should do the same concerning adverse changes to the Earth system beyond climate. The benefits of such an initiative would range from obtaining more accurate data for magnetic and seismic observation stations, to establishing a community of professionals to realistically and pragmatically address the threat posed by geomagnetic pole reversals. The increased data accuracy from magnetic and seismic observatories alone could easily help in creating better maps of the interior of the Earth, and assist in monitoring the ongoing changes in the Earth's core. Rather than a problem only affecting the United States, geomagnetic polarity reversals are a world problem that will require action from all nations. Recommendation #5: Improve Space Weather Forecasting Capabilities In conjunction with developing an ability to monitor and predict the behavior of the Earth's core, the country should focus on enhancing its space weather forecasting capability. While the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center provides solar storm outlooks and other related products, the accuracy of predictions and models is lacking. One look at NASA's Space Weather Prediction Center's CME scoreboard displays the problem, with prediction models from experts varying by six hours or more with their forecast accuracy.'36 Current systems can 46 provide accurate information on the magnetic field of CMEs only 30-60 minutes before the ejection hits the Earth.137 This is not enough time for the affected areas to react even if the nation was ready for such an event. Current prediction capabilities rely partly on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (SOHO), which is already 20 years old, and computer models to predict the speed and direction of coronal mass ejections.138 While SOHO has improved the nation's ability to monitor the Sun, forecasts still lead to routine errors of 6 hours or more.139 While 2015 launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite is a step in the right direction and replaces the aging Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) satellite, the notification time will still range from 15 to 60 minutes for accurate mass ejection warnings.' If a large mass ejection was headed for Earth, 60 minutes would not be enough time to coordinate actions in critical infrastructure areas. To fix the issue, the nation should launch new and improved satellites capable of accurately forecasting the speed, direction and electrical charge of mass ejection events at least 17 hours before their arrival on Earth, which was the time it took for the 1859 Carrington event to erupt from the Sun and strike the Earth.141 Even if response and recovery plans were in place, 60 minutes is hardly enough time to coordinate mitigation efforts in the electrical and satellite infrastructures. A more advanced and robust system could mitigate the threat posed by geomagnetically induced currents and geomagnetic storms. In short, accurate space weather prediction is not only important now but would become increasingly important in an environment where even normal space weather could compromise the integrity of the electrical grid and damage satellites. The nation should seek to launch more deep space monitoring satellites and continue to refine its forecasting techniques to extend out 47 predictions beyond the 60-minute current capability. Even a small increase in preparation time could make an enormous difference with mitigation efforts. Recommendation #6: Develop National Electrical Grid Control Measures The next recommendation is for the establishment of a national electrical power grid control center. Right now the electrical infrastructure is a patchwork of various private power- generating companies which has become more interconnected and interdependent over the last century. To mitigate the hazardous impacts of geomagnetically induced currents and geomagnetic storms on the nation's electrical transformers, the electrical power industry needs an ability to monitor and assess transformers nationwide. The ability to balance electrical loads from region to region will be essential if at least some of the 350 at risk EHV transformers are to be spared destruction during an intense geomagnetic storm. The ability for the power grid to react quickly and decisively during a large-scale geomagnetic storm could save portions of the country from having to endure electrical blackouts for months or years. This recommendation, along with improved prediction and monitoring capabilities for the magnetosphere and Sun, could reduce the risk of events in the future. While geomagnetically induced currents and geomagnetic storms would damage and destroy transformers, it is possible some transformers could be saved by load management and faster reactions from power companies. In essence, the establishment of the capability to monitor and control power across the country would help in reducing the hazards created by adverse space weather in a weakened geomagnetic environment. 48 Recommendation #7: Harden Satellites and Transformers While the recommendation for establishing a national electrical power grid control center and"Earth Observatory" capable of real-time monitoring of the Earth's core would be essential, there are other actions the nation can undertake to reduce the risks associated with geomagnetic polarity reversals. The electrical and satellite infrastructures could both benefit from increased radiation resistance for solar storms and geomagnetically induced currents. Government, military, and civilian satellite operators could quickly start installing and engineering more radiation resistant hardware to mitigate the threat posed by both the weakened magnetosphere and space weather. While the cost per satellite would increase, it would be minuscule in comparison to the overall economic losses and damage associated with a large-scale space weather event. Like satellite systems, the electrical grid could begin the process of hardening to mitigate the effects of geomagnetic storms and geomagnetically induced currents. The only prohibition against such an action is the cost. Since the 1989 Quebec Solar Storm, the Canadian government has spent$1.2 billion dollars to harden the Hydro-Quebec electrical infrastructure.142 The price tag for hardening large portions of the nation would extend well into the tens of billions of dollars. While this may seem like a steep price tag, a single large mass ejection event could easily exceed this cost in one day, with the associated economic losses reaching into the trillions of dollars. The technology is available to render both the electrical and satellite infrastructures more resistant and capable of withstanding adverse space weather events in a reduced strength geomagnetic environment. The nation should focus on hardening the electrical grid and satellite infrastructure against adverse space weather now to prepare for the future. Even without a geomagnetic reversal, the United States could see costs in the trillions of dollars making the increased prices to manufacture and harden both systems well worth the effort. 49 Recommendation #8: Make Understanding the Earth a Priority Finally, the nation needs to make understanding the Earth system beyond climate a top priority. The USGS, which is the nation's premiere scientific organization dedicated to understanding the Earth, spends a significant portion of its budget and time on climate change, global warming, and other environmental efforts. In the 2015 budget, the USGS budgeted 2.5 times more funding for climate, water, and land-use programs than for the natural hazards program that covers areas from volcanoes to the geomagnetism program.143 Looking at the USGS Geomagnetism Program, it received 183 times less funding than the water, climate, and land use programs.144 While understanding the Earth's climate is critically important, it should not overshadow the other Earth hazards that need to be researched and mitigated. The Earth system as a whole, especially beyond climate, remains unpredictable, complex and dynamic. The fact that geologists are still unable to predict volcanoes, earthquakes and the behavior of the geodynamo indicates there is much about the Earth system scientists do not understand. Therefore, the USGS should re-invest in capabilities and bolster funding toward studying and mitigating natural hazards like volcanoes, earthquakes and pole reversals. Doubling or tripling the USGS budget for Earth system programs and research not related to global warming and climate change would be minute in the overall federal budget. The USGS budget for 2015 was only $1.1 billion dollars, which is nearly 70 times less funding than the Department of Defense's research and development budget, and between 5-7 times less funding than the EPA and NOAA receive.145,146,147 The USGS should prioritized funding for programs outside of climate research. Understanding and predicting the behavior of the Earth's core is vital for national security. Without new monitoring systems in place and without an emphasis on the geosciences outside of climate change and global warming, the nation could be caught unprepared for the 50 next geomagnetic polarity reversal. Geology, despite the advancements in science and technology made in the last century, remains a scientific field with many unanswered questions. Summary The Earth's geomagnetic field is vital for United States national security. While invisible, this protective shield has allowed life to evolve on Earth and has set the conditions for the creation of advanced human civilizations. Without a strong and active magnetic field, the Earth would be an analog to Mars. As such, understanding the dynamics, mechanisms and future behavior of the geodynamo should be a national priority. This research highlighted how fragile the nation's infrastructures become when the protection offered by the geomagnetic field is compromised. The increase in technology, the accelerating decrease in magnetic field strength and threat of large-scale adverse space weather are converging together to create the perfect geomagnetic storm. The findings of this research displayed how unprepared the nation is for both dangerous space weather and the next reversal event, and how prediction capabilities for both leave much to be desired. If the government does not act now, then the cost of such inaction could be trillions of dollars in economic losses and the deaths of millions of Americans. The recommendations offered by this research are practical examples of how the nation could mitigate and prepare for a cataclysmic pole reversal. By re-focusing funding on geomagnetism programs and geomagnetism research,building the world's first 3-D real-time view of the interior of the Earth, and spearheading a"Global Geomagnetic Initiative," the nation would be able to bolster geomagnetism knowledge and develop prediction capabilities for the Earth's geodynamo. Furthermore, by focusing on improving space weather forecasting capabilities, hardening the satellite and electrical infrastructures, and implementing early warning and control measures, the nation could mitigate the negative impacts of both adverse space weather and polarity reversals. 51 The development of national response, recovery and risk plans would go a long way toward preparing the nation's emergency response organizations for such a large-scale disaster. Finally, much like the nation has done with climate change and global warming, the United States needs to make understanding the Earth's geodynamo and complex systems a priority. While scientific understanding of the Earth is increasing every day, there is still much regarding the Earth system that technology and science cannot currently explain. In short, the nation needs to focus on understanding the Earth as an entire system rather than focusing on one particular part, as areas from climate, to earthquakes, to volcanoes and pole reversals remain outside current capabilities to predict and understand. The future survival of the nation will depend on gaining a holistic understanding of the Earth as a complex and variable system. While the 20th century focused on space exploration,the 21St century should focus on gaining an understanding of the complex and dynamic planet Earth. 52 Endnotes 1 Gillian M. Turner, North Pole, South Pole: The Epic Quest to Solve the Great Mystery of Earth's Magnetism, Kindle Edition(New York, NY: Experiment, 2011), 3230. 2 European Space Agency, "Swarm Reveals Earth's Changing Magnetism," European Space Agency, access 20 October 2015, http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Swarm reveals_Earth_s_changi ng_magnetism. 3 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2801. 4 Hagay Amit, Roman Leonhardt, and Johannes Wicht, "Polarity Reversals from Paleomagnetic Observations And Numerical Dynamo Simulations," Space Science Reviews 155 (2010): 295, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11214-010-9695-2#page-1. 5 David Gubbins, "Earth Science: Geomagnetic Reversals,"Nature 452 (2008): 165-67, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v452/n7184/full/452165a.html. 6 Ibid. ' Ibid. 8 John A. Tarduno, Rory D. Cottrell, Michael K. Watkeys, and Dorothy Bauch, "Geomagnetic Field Strength 3.2 Billion Years Ago Recorded by Single Silicate Crystals," Nature 446.7136 (2007): 657-60, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v446/n7136/abs/nature05667.html. 9 Andrew P. Roberts, "Geomagnetic Excursions: Knowns and Unknowns," Geophysical Research Letters Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008): L17307, http://people.rses.anu.edu.au/roberts_a/AR_Publications/111.%20Roberts%2OGRL%202008.pdf 10 David Gubbins, "The Distinction between Geomagnetic Excursions and Reversals." Geophysical Journal International 137 (1998): F1-F3, http://www.geo.uu.n1/forth/publications/Related pubs/Gubbins99.pdf. 11 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2811. 12 Amit, Leonhardt, and Wicht, "Polarity Reversals from Paleomagnetic Observations," 295. 13 Ibid. 14 Roberts, "Geomagnetic Excursions," L17307. 15 L. Sagnotti, G. Scardia, B. Giaccio, J. C. Liddicoat, S. Nomade, P. R. Renne, and C. J. Sprain, "Extremely Rapid Directional Change during Matuyama-Brunhes Geomagnetic Polarity Reversal," Geophysical Journal International 199, no. 2 (2014): 1121, http://www.researchgate.net/publication/265 855584_Extremely_rapid_directional_change_durin g_Matuyama-Brunhes_geomagnetic_polarity_reversal_Geophys. 16 Scott W. Bogue and Jonathan M. G. Glen, "Very Rapid Geomagnetic Field Change Recorded by the Partial Remagnetization of a Lava Flow," Geophysical Research Letters 37, no. 21 (2010): L21308, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL044286/abstract. 17 Amit, Leonhardt, and Wicht, "Polarity Reversals from Paleomagnetic Observations," 295. 18 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 3230. 19 Ibid. 20 European Space Agency, "Swarm Reveals Earth's Changing Magnetism,"n.p. 21 Jean-Pierre Valet, Alexandre Fournier, Vincent Courtillot, and Emilio Herrero-Bervera, "Dynamical Similarity of Geomagnetic Field Reversals,"Nature 490 (October 2012): 89, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v490/n7418/full/nature 11491.html. 22 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2801. 23 Ibid. 53 24 Y. Wei, Z. Pu, Q. Zong, W. Wan, Z. Ren, M. Fraenz and M. Hong, "Oxygen escape from the Earth during geomagnetic reversals: Implications to mass extinction,"Earth and Planetary Science Letters 394 (2014): 94-98, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/50012821 X14001629. 25 Jean-Pierre Valet and Helene Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake Geomagnetic Events And The Extinction Of Neanderthal: A Causal Link Or A Coincidence?" Quaternary Science Reviews 29, no. 27-28 (2010): 3888, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003434. 26 Ibid. 27 John S. Kopper and Stavros Papamarinopoulos, "Human Evolution and Geomagnetism," Journal of Field Archaeology 4, no. 4 (Winter, 1978): 446-449, http://www.j stor.org/stable/529495?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents. 28 Valet and Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake," 3888. 29 Ibid. 3o USGS, "National Geomagnetism Program: Observatories," USGS Geomagnetism Program, accessed 20 October 2015,http://geomag.usgs.gov/monitoring/observatories/. 31 Jeffrey J. Love and Carol A. Finn, "The USGS Geomagnetism Program and Its Role in Space Weather Monitoring," Space Weather 9, no. 7 (2011): 1-5, http://geomag.usgs.gov/downloads/publications/2011SW000684.pdf. 32 Ibid. 33 European Space Agency, "SWARM: ESA'S Magnetic Field Mission," European Space Agency SWARM, accessed 23 September 2015, http://www.esa.int/Our Activities/Observing the Earth/The Living Planet Programme/Earth_ Explorers/Swarm/ESA_s magnetic field mission Swarm. 34 Ibid. 35 Bogue and Glen, "Very Rapid Geomagnetic Field," L21308. 36 Paul H. Roberts and Eric M. King, "On the Genesis of the Earth's Magnetism," Reports on Progress in Physics 76, no. 9 (2013): 096801, http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0034- 4885/76/9/096801/meta;jsessionid=CA 15A2FF534CB069DA18F7965FBEABE3.c l.iopscience. cld.iop.org. 37 Ibid. 38 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2801. 39 Joint Publication 3-14, Space Operations, 29 May 2013, I-8. 4° J.A. Marusek, Solar Storm threat Analysis, (Bloomfield, Indiana: Impact 2007), 3. 41 National Science and Technology Council,National Space Weather Strategy (Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President October 2015), 12. 42 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather Events— Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts, A Workshop Report(Washington, DC: The National Academy Press 2008), 111. 43 Ibid. 44 Ibid. 45 Ibid. 46 Ibid. 47 David Hathaway, "Coronal Mass Ejections," NASA/Marshall Solar Physics, accessed 11 November 2015, http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml. 54 48 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure (London, England: RAE February 2013), 5. 49 Michio Kaku, interview by Lou Dobbs, Lou Dobbs Tonight, CNN, 11 May 2009. 5° Tony Phillips, "Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012 - NASA Science," NASA Science, accessed 11 November 2015, http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at- nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/. 51 Valet and Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake," 3888. 52 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 14. 53 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 50. 54 Major Brian Kabat, "The Sun as a Non-state Actor: The Implications on Military Operations and Theater Security of a Catastrophic Space Weather Event," Research Report (Newport, RI: Naval War College March 2010), 9. 55 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 45. 56 Ibid. 57 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 24-36. 58Sten Odenwald, Space Weather—Impacts, Mitigation and Forecasting, Visiting Scientists Program University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (Boulder, Colorado: University of Colorado 2012), 10. 59 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2801. 60 Odenwald, Space Weather, 14. 61 Marusek, Solar Storm threat Analysis, 21. 62 Sten Odenwald, James Green, and William Taylor, "Forecasting the Impact of an 1859- calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources,"Advances in Space Research 38, no. 2 (2006): 9, http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20050210154.pdf. 63 Ibid. 64 Ibid. 65 Ibid. 66 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 45. 67 Valet and Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake," 3888. 68 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 15. 69 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 22. 70 Mark H. Macalester, and William Murtagh, "Extreme Space Weather Impact: An Emergency Management Perspective," Space Weather 12, no. 8 (2014): 534, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014SW001095/full. 71 Department of Energy,Large Power Transformers and the U.S. Electrical Grid, Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Report(Washington, DC: June 2012), 20. 72 Ibid, 7-20. 73 Macalester and Murtagh, "Extreme Space Weather Impact," 534. 74 Department of Homeland Security Office of Risk Management and Analysis, Geomagnetic Storms, 1-3. 75 Macalester and Murtagh, "Extreme Space Weather Impact," 534. 76 Marusek, Solar Storm threat Analysis, 10. 77 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 29. 78 Ibid, 16. 55 79 Valet and Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake," 3888. 80 Macalester and Murtagh, "Extreme Space Weather Impact," 535. 81 Kabat, "The Sun as a Non-state Actor," 18. 82 EMP Commission,Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack, Critical National Infrastructures (Washington, DC: April 2008), 134. 83 The Groundwater Foundation, "The Basics: Center Pivots," The Groundwater Foundation, accessed 17 November 2015, http://www.groundwater.org/get-informed/basics/pivots.html. 84 Ibid. 85 EMP Commission,Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack, 134. 86 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 4. 87 Ibid, 77. 88 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 29. 89 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 50. 90 Odenwald, Green and Taylor, "Forecasting the Impact of an 1859," 1. 91 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 29. 92 Department of Homeland Security Office of Risk Management and Analysis, Geomagnetic Storms, 10. 93 Ibid. 94 National Science and Technology Council,National Space Weather Action Plan (Washington, DC: Executive Office of the President October 2015), 10-11. 95 National Space Weather Program Council,Report on Space Weather Observing Systems: Current Capabilities and Requirements for the next Decade, Office of the Federal Coordinator for the Meteorological Services and Supporting Research(Washington, DC: April 2013), 30. 96 National Science and Technology Council,National Space Weather Action Plan, 18. 97 Ibid, 17. 98 Steven Bucci, David Inserra, Jonathan Lesser, Matt Mayer, Brian Slattery, and Katie Tubb, "After Hurricane Sandy: Time to Learn and Implement the Lessons in Preparedness, Response, and Resilience," The Heritage Foundation, accessed 19 November 2015, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/10/after-hurricane-sandy-time-to-learn-and- implement-the-lessons. 99 Ibid. 100 Ibid. 101 Department of Homeland Security Office of Risk Management and Analysis, Geomagnetic Storms, 8-10. 102 Valet and Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake," 3888. 103 Ibid. 104 NOAA, "Space Weather Phenomena," NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, accessed 19 November 2015, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena. 105 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 45. 106 Space Weather Live, "What are Radio Blackouts?" Space Weather Live: Real Time Auroral Activity and Solar Activity, accessed 19 November 2015, http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/what-are-radio-blackouts. 107 Ibid. 56 108 Colonel Michael A. Neyland, "Weather Support for America's Warfighter," Powerpoint Presentation, accessed 19 November 2015, http://www.ofcm.gov/ovist_proceedings/pdf/panel1/mneyland.pdf 109 Odenwald, Space Weather, 14. 110 Odenwald, Green and Taylor, "Forecasting the Impact of an 1859," 16. 111 Ibid, 26. 112 Ibid, 17. 113 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 14. 114 Ibid. 115 Royal Academy of Engineering,Extreme Space Weather, 11. 116 Ioannis Panayiotis Zois, "Solar Activity and Transformer Failures in the Greek National Electric Grid," Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate 3 (2013): A32, http://www.swsc- j ournal.org/articles/swsc/pdf/2013/01/swsc 12005 8.pdf 117 Valet and Valladas, "The Laschamp-Mono Lake," 3888. 118 Ibid. 119 Ibid. 120lbid. 121 Ibid. 122 Ibid. 123 Marusek, Solar Storm threat Analysis, 21. 124 J.D. Hays, "Faunal Extinctions and Reversals of the Earth's Magnetic Field," Geological Society of America Bulletin 82 (1971): 2433. 125Alan H. Teramura, "Effects of ultraviolet-B radiation on the growth and yield of crop plants,"Physiologia Plantarum 58, no. 3 (July 1983): 415. 126 National Research Council of the National Academies, Severe Space Weather, 46. 127 Ibid. 128 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2801: 129 National Science and Technology Council,National Space Weather Action Plan, 18. 130 Turner,North Pole, South Pole, 2801. 131 USGS, "USGS Budget Justification," USGS Office of Budget, Planning and Integration, accessed 7 December 2015,http://www.usgs.gov/budget/2015/2015index.asp. 132 White House Office of Science and Technology, Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, (Washington, DC: March 2014), 1. 133 USGS, "FY 2015 Budget and Related Information,"USGS Office of Budget,Planning and Integration, accessed 5 December 2015, http://www.usgs.gov/budget/2015/2015index.asp. 134 Ibid. 135 A.J. Biggin, B. Steinberger, J. Aubert, N. Suttie, R. Holme, T.H. Torsvik, D.G. van der Meer and D.J.J. van Hinsberger, "Possible Links Between Long-Term Geomagnetic Variations and Whole-Mantle Convection Process,"Nature Geoscience 5 (July 2012): 526. 136 NASA, "CME ScoreBoard,"NASA GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center Tools, accessed 6 December 2015, http://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/. 137 Karen Fox, "New Tracking Tool Could Track Space Weather 24 Hours Before Reaching Earth,"NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, accessed 6 December 2015, http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/new-to ol-could-track-space-weather-24-hours-before- reaching-earth. 57 138 NASA, "About the SOHO Mission," SOHO: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, accessed 6 December 2015,http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/about/about.html. 139 Space Weather Live, "How Do We Know if a CME is Earth-Directed and When It Is Going to Arrive," Space Weather Live: Real Time Auroral Activity and Solar Activity, accessed 7 December 2015, http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/help/how-do-we-know-if-a-cme-is- earth-directed-and-when-its-going-to-arrive. 140 NOAA, "DSCOVR: Deep Space Climate Observatory,"NOAA Satellite and Information Service, accessed 7 December 2015, http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/DSCOVR/. 141 Marusek, Solar Storm threat Analysis, 4. 142 Lloyd's, "Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid," Lloyd's.com, accessed 6 December 2015, https://www.11oyds.com/—/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk%20reports/solar%20storm%2 Orisk%20to%20the%20north%20american%20electric%20grid.pdf. 143 USGS, "FY 2015 Budget,"n.p. 144 Ibid. 145 Office of the Undersecretary of Defense Comptroller Chief Financial Officer, "United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2016 Budget Request," February 2015, 5-1, http://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2016/FY2016_Budget_Reque st_Overview_Book.pdf. 146 Environmental Protection Agency Office of the Chief Financial Officer, "FY 2015 EPA Budget in Brief," March 2015, 1, http://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014- 03/documents/fy 15_bib.pdf. 147 NOAA, "FY 2015 Budget Summary," accessed 6 December 2015, 3, http://www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/fy15 bluebook/FY2015BudgetSummary-small.pdf. 58 Bibliography Amit, Hagay, Roman Leonhardt, and Johannes Wicht. 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"Solar Activity and Transformer Failures in the Greek National Electric Grid."Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate 3 (2013): A32. http://www.swsc- journal.org/articles/swsc/pdf/2013/01/swsc 120058.pdf 63 • Home • Contact • Donate • Documents • Patents • Resources» • Tests» • Spray Jets • HAARP DATA • T-Shirts,Cards And Bumper Stickers • Photo Gallery ' ' ' GeoEngineering Watch � 3 • Recent • Legal Action • Audio/Video» • Health • Geoengineering» • Engineered Droughts • Engineering Winter • Engineering Wildfires • Creating Storms • Jet Spraying • GEOWATCH Radio • Tree Die-off • Into The Wild • HAARP Extensive List Of Patents SENT AND TR' tQ'� SFS a l %d • ��F' E.. OF CO"A 0 Share/Save (1 y L 13K people like this.Sign Up to see what your friends like. United States Patent and Trademark Office • 0462795—July 16,1891—Method Of Producing Rain-Fall • 803180—October 31,1905—Means for Producing High Potential Electrical Discharges • 1103490—August 6,1913—Rain-Maker • 1225521—September 4,1915—Protecting From Poisonous Gas In Warfare • 1279823—September 24,1918—Process and Apparatus for Causing Precipitation by Coalescence of Aqueous Particles Contained in the Atmosphere • 1284982—November 19,1918—Process and Apparatus for Procuring and Stimulating Rainfall • 1338343—April 27,1920—Process And Apparatus For The Production of Intense Artificial Clouds,Fogs,or Mists • 1358084—November 9,1920—Method of Producing Fog-Screens • 1619183—March 1,1927—Process of Producing Smoke Clouds From Moving Aircraft • 1665267—April 10,1928—Process of Producing Artificial Fogs • 1892132—December 27,1932—Atomizing Attachment For Airplane Engine Exhausts • 1895765—January 31,1933—Artificial Production of Fog • 1928963—October 3,1933—Electrical System And Method • 1957075-May 1,1934-Airplane Spray Equipment • 1993316-March 5,1935-Apparatus for and Method of Producing Oil Fog • 2052626-September 1,1936-Method of Dispelling Fog • 2097581-November 2,1937-Electric Stream Generator-Referenced in 3990987 • 2173756-September 19,1939-Process of Producing Fog or Mist by Partial and Flameless Combustion • 2352677-July 4,1944-Artificial Fog Production • 2476171-July 18,1945-Smoke Screen Generator • 2409201-October 15,1946-Smoke Producing Mixture • 2480967-September 6,1949-Aerial Discharge Device • 2527230-October 24,1950-Method of Crystal Formation and Precipitation • 2527231-October 24,1950-Method of Generating Silver Iodide Smoke • 2550324-April 24,1951-Process For Controlling Weather • 2582678-June 15,1952-Material Disseminating Apparatus For Airplanes • 2611992-September 30,1952-Engine Exhaust Operated Fluent Material Distributor • 2614083-October 14,1952-Metal Chloride Screening Smoke Mixture • 2633455-March 31,1953-Smoke Generator • 2688069-August 31,1954-Steam Generator-Referenced in 3990987 • 2721495-October 25,1955-Method And Apparatus For Detecting Minute Crystal Forming Particles Suspended in a Gaseous Atmosphere • 2730402-January 10,1956-Controllable Dispersal Device • 2903188-April 2,1956-Control of Tropical Cyclone Formation • 2756097-July 24,1956-Process for Weather Control • 2801322-July 30,1957-Decomposition Chamber for Monopropellant Fuel-Referenced in 3990987 • 2835530-May 20,1958-Process for the Condensation of Atmospheric Humidity and Dissolution of Fog • 2871344-January 27,1959-Long Distance Communication System • 2881335-April 7,1959-Generation of Electrical Fields • 2908442-October 13,1959-Method For Dispersing Natural Atmospheric Fogs And Clouds • 2962450-November 29,1960-Fog Dispelling Composition • 2963975-December 13,1960-Cloud Seeding Carbon Dioxide Bullet • 3019989-February 6,1962-Atmospheric Space Charge Modification • 2986360-May 30,1962-Aerial Insecticide Dusting Device • 3046168-July 24,1962-Chemically Produced Colored Smokes • 3056556-October 2,1962-Method of Artificially Influencing the Weather • 3126155-March 24,1964-Silver Iodide Cloud Seeding Generator • 3127107-March 31,1964-Generation of Ice-Nucleating Crystals • 3131131-April 28,1964-Electrostatic Mixing in Microbial Conversions • 3140207-July 7,1964-Pyrotechnic Composition • 3174150-March 16,1965-Self-Focusing Antenna System • 3234357-February 8,1966-Electrically Heated Smoke Producing Device • 3274035-September 20,1966-Metallic Composition For Production of Hydroscopic Smoke • 3284005-November 8,1966-Weather Control by Artificial Means • 3300721-January 24,1967-Means For Communication Through a Layer of Ionized Gases • 3313487-April 11,1967-Cloud Seeding Apparatus • 3338476-August 29,1967-Heating Device For Use With Aerosol Containers • 3375148-March 26,1968-Pyrotechnics Comprising Silver Iodate,Ammonium Nitrate,Nitrocellulose and Nitrate Esters • 3378201-April 16,1968-Method for Precipitating Atmospheric Water Masses • 3410489-November 12,1968-Automatically Adjustable Airfoil Spray System With Pump • 3418184-December 24,1968-Smoke Producing Propellant • 3429507-February 25,1969-Rainmaker • 3432208-November 7,1967-Fluidized Particle Dispenser • 3441214-April 29,1969-Method And Apparatus For Seeding Clouds • 3445844-May 20,1969-Trapped Electromagnetic Radiation Communications System • 3456880-July 22,1969-Method Of Producing Precipitation From The Atmosphere • 3518670-June 30,1970-Artificial Ion Cloud • 3517512-June 30,1970-Apparatus for Suppressing Contrails • 3534906-October 20,1970-Control of Atmospheric Particles • 3545677-December 8,1970-Method of Cloud Seeding • 3564253-February 16,1971-System And Method For Irradiation Of Planet Surface Areas • 3587966-June 28,1971-Freezing Nucleation • 3595477-July 27,1971-Fog Dispersing Method and Compositions • 3601312-August 24,1971-Methods of Increasing The Likelihood of Precipitation By The Artificial Introduction Of Sea Water Vapor Into The Atmosphere Winward Of An Air Lift Region • 3608810-September 28,1971-Methods of Treating Atmospheric Conditions • 3608820-September 20,1971-Treatment of Atmospheric Conditions by Intermittent Dispensing of Materials Therein • 3613992-October 19,1971-Weather Modification Method • 3630950-December 28,1971-Combustible Compositions For Generating Aerosols,Particularly Suitable For Cloud Modification And Weather Control And Aerosolization Process • USRE29142-May 22,1973-Combustible compositions for generating aerosols,particularly suitable for cloud modification and weather control and aerosolization process • 3659785-December 8,1971-Weather Modification Utilizing Microencapsulated Material • 3666176-March 3,1972-Solar Temperature Inversion Device • 3677840-July 18,1972-Pyrotechnics Comprising Oxide of Silver For Weather Modification Use • 3690552-September 12,1972-Fog Dispersal • 3722183-March 27,1973-Device For Clearing Impurities From The Atmosphere • 3748278-July 24,1973-Process and Agents Having an Influence on the Weather • 3751913-August 14,1973-Barium Release System • 3769107-October 30,1973-Pyrotechnic Composition For Generating Lead Based Smoke • 3784099-January 8,1974-Air Pollution Control Method • 3785557-January 15,1974-Cloud Seeding System • 3788543-January 29,1974-Uniform Size Particle Generator • 3795626-March 5,1974-Weather Modification Process • 3802971-April 9,1974-Pyrotechnic Formulations for Weather Modification Comprising a Mixture of Iodates • 3808595-April 30,1974-Chaff Dispensing System • 3813875-June 4,1974-Rocket Having Barium Release System to Create Ion Clouds In The Upper Atmosphere • 3835059-September 10,1974-Methods of Generating Ice Nuclei Smoke Particles For Weather Modification And Apparatus Therefore • 3835293-September 10,1974-Electrical Heating Apparatus For Generating Super Heated Vapors • 3858805-January 7,1975-Ice Nucleation by Micas • 3877642-April 15,1975-Freezing Nucleant • 3882393-May 6,1975-Communications System Utilizing Modulation of The Characteristic Polarization of The Ionosphere • 3887580-June 3,1975-Method of Crystallization of Water in Supercooled Clouds and Fogs and Reagent Useful in Said Method • 3896993-July 29,1975-Process For Local Modification of Fog And Clouds For Triggering Their Precipitation And For Hindering The Development of Hail Producing Clouds • 3899129-August 12,1975-Apparatus for generating ice nuclei smoke particles for weather modification • 3899144-August 12,1975-Powder contrail generation • 3915379-October 28,1975-Method of Controlling Weather • 3940059-February 24,1976-Method For Fog Dispersion • 3940060-February 24,1976-Vortex Ring Generator • 3990987-November 9,1976-Smoke generator • 3992628-November 16,1976-Countermeasure system for laser radiation • 3994437-November 30,1976-Broadcast dissemination of trace quantities of biologically active chemicals • 4042196-August 16,1977-Method and apparatus for triggering a substantial change in earth characteristics and measuring earth changes • RE29,142-February 22,1977-Combustible compositions for generating aerosols,particularly suitable for cloud modification and weather control and aerosolization process • 4009828-March 1 1977-Organic Nucleating Agent for both Warm and Cold Clouds • 4035726-July 12,1977-Method of controlling and/or improving high-latitude and other communications or radio wave surveillance systems by partial control of radio wave et al • 4096005-June 20,1978-Pyrotechnic Cloud Seeding Composition • 4129252-December 12,1978-Method and apparatus for production of seeding materials • 4141274-February 27,1979-Weather modification automatic cartridge dispenser • 4167008-September 4,1979-Fluid bed chaff dispenser • 4347284-August 31,1982-White cover sheet material capable of reflecting ultraviolet rays • 4362271-December 7,1982-Procedure for the artificial modification of atmospheric precipitation as well as compounds with a dimethyl sulfoxide base for use in carrying out said procedure • 4373391-February 15,1983-Relative Humidity Sensitive Material • 4396152-August 2,1983-Aerosol Dispenser System • 4402480-September 6,1983-Atmosphere modification satellite • 4412654-November 1,1983-Laminar microjet atomizer and method of aerial spraying of liquids • 4415265-November 15,1983-Method and apparatus for aerosol particle absorption spectroscopy • 4470544-September 11,1984-Method of and Means for weather modification • 4475927-October 9,1984-Bipolar Fog Abatement System • 4600147-July 15,1986-Liquid propane generator for cloud seeding apparatus • 4633714-January 6,1987-Aerosol particle charge and size analyzer • 4643355-February 17,1987-Method and apparatus for modification of climatic conditions • 4653690-March 31,1987-Method of producing cumulus clouds • 4684063-August 4,1987-Particulates generation and removal • 4686605-August 11,1987-HAARP Patent/EASTLUND PATENT-Method and apparatus for altering a region in the earth's atmosphere,ionosphere,and/or magnetosphere • 4704942-November 10,1987-Charged Aerosol • 4712155-December 8,1987-Method and apparatus for creating an artificial electron cyclotron heating region of plasma • 4742958-May 10,1988- Method for Making Artificial Snow • 4744919-May 17,1988-Method of dispersing particulate aerosol tracer • 4766725-August 30,1988-Method of suppressing formation of contrails and solution therefor • 4829838-May 16,1989-Method and apparatus for the measurement of the size of particles entrained in a gas • 4836086-June 6,1989-Apparatus and method for the mixing and diffusion of warm and cold air for dissolving fog • 4873928-October 17,1989-Nuclear-sized explosions without radiation • 4948257-August 14,1990-Laser optical measuring device and method for stabilizing fringe pattern spacing • 1338343-August 14,1990-Process and Apparatus for the production of intense artificial Fog • 4999637-March 12,1991-Creation of artificial ionization clouds above the earth • 5003186-March 26,1991-Stratospheric Welsbach seeding for reduction of global warming • 5005355-April 9,1991-Method of suppressing formation of contrails and solution therefor • 5038664-August 13,1991-Method for producing a shell of relativistic particles at an altitude above the earths surface • 5041760-August 20,1991-Method and apparatus for generating and utilizing a compound plasma configuration • 5041834-August 20,1991-Artificial ionospheric mirror composed of a plasma layer which can be tilted • 5056357-October 15,1991-Acoustic method for measuring properties of a mobile medium • 5059909-October 22,1991-Determination of particle size and electrical charge • 5104069-April 14,1992-Apparatus and method for ejecting matter from an aircraft • 5110502-May 5,1992-Method of suppressing formation of contrails and solution therefor • 5156802-October 20,1992-Inspection of fuel particles with acoustics • 5174498-December 29,1992-Cloud Seeding • 5148173-September 15,1992-Millimeter wave screening cloud and method • 5242820-September 7,1993-Army Mycoplasma Patent Patent • 5245290-September 14,1993-Device for determining the size and charge of colloidal particles by measuring electroacoustic effect • 5286979-February 15,1994-Process for absorbing ultraviolet radiation using dispersed melanin • 5296910-March 22,1994-Method and apparatus for particle analysis • 5327222-July 5,1994-Displacement information detecting apparatus • 5357865-October 25,1994-Method of cloud seeding • 5360162-November 1,1994-Method and composition for precipitation of atmospheric water • 5383024-January 17,1995-Optical wet steam monitor • 5425413-June 20,1995-Method to hinder the formation and to break-up overhead atmospheric inversions,enhance ground level air circulation and improve urban air quality • 5434667-July 18,1995-Characterization of particles by modulated dynamic light scattering • 5436039-July 25,1995-Artificial Snow in an Aggregate Form of Snow Granules • 5441200-August 15,1995-Tropical cyclone disruption • 5492274-February 20,1996-Method of and Means for Weather Modification • 5546183-August,13,1996-LIDAR Droplet Size Monitor for In-Flight Measurement of Aircraft Engine Exhaust Contrails,Droplets and Aerosols • 5556029-September 17,1996-Method of hydrometeor dissipation(clouds) • 5628455-May 13,1997-Method and apparatus for modification of supercooled fog • 5631414-May 20,1997-Method and device for remote diagnostics of ocean-atmosphere system state • 5639441-June 17,1997-Methods for fine particle formation • 5762298-June 9,1998-Use of artificial satellites in earth orbits adaptively to modify the effect that solar radiation would otherwise have on earth's weather • 5800481-September 1,1998-Thermal excitation of sensory resonances • 5912396-June 15,1999-System and method for remediation of selected atmospheric conditions • 5922976-July 13,1999-Method of measuring aerosol particles using automated mobility-classified aerosol detector • 5949001-September 7,1999-Method for aerodynamic particle size analysis • 5984239-November 16,1999-Weather modification by artificial satellites • 6025402-February 15,2000-Chemical composition for effectuating a reduction of visibility obscuration,and a detoxifixation of fumes and chemical fogs in spaces of fire origin • 6030506-February 29,2000-Preparation of independently generated highly reactive chemical species • 6034073-March 7,2000-Solvent detergent emulsions having antiviral activity • 6045089-April 4,2000-Solar-powered airplane • 6056203-May 2,2000-Method and apparatus for modifying supercooled clouds • 6315213B1-June 21,2000-Method of modifying weather • 6110590-August 29,2000-Synthetically spun silk nanofibers and a process for making the same • 6263744-July 24,2001-Automated mobility-classified-aerosol detector • 6281972-August 28,2001-Method and apparatus for measuring particle-size distribution • 20030085296-November 2,2001-Hurricane and tornado control device • 6315213-November 13,2001-Method of modifying weather • 2002009338-January 24,2002-Influencing Weather Patterns by way of Altering Surface or Subsurface Ocean Water Temperatures • 20020008155-January 24,2002-Method and System for Hurricane Control • 6382526-May 7,2002-Process and apparatus for the production of nanofibers • 6408704-June 25,2002-Aerodynamic particle size analysis method and apparatus • 6412416-July 2,2002-Propellant-based aerosol generation devices and method • 6520425-February 18,2003-Process and apparatus for the production of nanofibers • 6539812-April 1,2003-System for measuring the flow-rate of a gas by means of ultrasound • 6553849-April 29,2003-Electrodynamic particle size analyzer • 6569393-May 27,2003-Method And Device For Cleaning The Atmosphere • 20040060994-April 1,2004-Method for Influencing Atmospheric Formations • 20040074980-April 22,2004-Method and Device for Generating a Liquid Mist • 0056705 Al-March 17,2005-Weather Modification by Royal Rainmaking Technology • 6890497-May 10,2005-Method For Extracting And Sequestering Carbon Dioxide • 2446250-January 4,2007-A dust or particle-based solar shield to counteract global warming • 20070056436-March 15,2007-Challenger to Natural Twisters,Technology • 2007033448-March 29,2007-Production of Localized Artificial Rains in Polar Stratospheric Clouds,to Promote a Rain Wash in the CIO Gas,Reduce the Destruction of the Ozone Layer and a Replacement Process in situ of the Stratospheric Ozone • 20070114298-May 24,2007-Hurricane Abatement Method and System • 20070158449-July 12,2007-Tropical Hurricane Control System • 20070215946-September 20,2007-Broadband Communications System via Reflection from Artificial Ionized Plasma Patterns in the Atmosphere • 7965488-November 9,2007-Methods Of Removing Aerosols From The Atmosphere • 8048309-August 28,2008-Seawater-Based Carbon Dioxide Disposal • 20080203328-August 28,2008-Outer Space Sun Screen for Reducing Global Warming • 20100072297-September 24,2008-Method for controlling hurricanes • 7434524-October 14,2008-Machine to Get Rid of Hurricanes • 8012453-October 27,2008-Carbon Sequestration And Production Of Hydrogen And Hydride • 20090008468-January 8,2009-How to Tame Hurricanes and Typhoons with Available Technology • 7520237-April 21,2009-Hurricane Prevention System and Method • 20090255999-October 15,2009-Production or Distribution of Radiative Forcing Elements • 20090290761-November 26,2009-Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Wind Direction,Speed,and Turbidity Monitoring using Digital Imaging and Motion Tracking • 7645326-January 12,2010-RFID environmental manipulation • 7655193-February 2,2010-Apparatus For Extracting And Sequestering Carbon Dioxide • 20100074390-March 25,2010-Method for Weather Modification and Vapor Generator for Weather Modification • 20100127224-May 27,2010-Atmospheric Injection of Reflective Aerosol for Mitigating Global Warming • 7748662-July 6,2010-Aerial Delivery System • 20100170958-July 8,2010-Hurricane Mitigation by Combined Seeding with Condensation and Freezing Nuclei • 20100252648-October 7,2010-Climate Processor • 20100264230-October 21,2010-Severe Storm/Hurricane Modification Method and Apparatus • 20100282914-November 11,2010-Enhanced Aerial Delivery System • 20110005422-January 13,2011-Method and Apparatus for Cooling a Planet • 20110049257-March 3,2011-Method and Apparatus for Local Modification of Atmosphere • 20110101124-May 5,2011-Hurricane Abatement System and Method • 2011073650-June 23,2011-Atmospheric Delivery System • 20110168797-July 14,2011-Method of Weakening a Hurricane • 20110174892-July 21,2011-Apparatus and Related Methods for Weather Modification by Electrical Processes in the Atmosphere • 20110198407-August 18,2011-Method and Apparatus to Break Up or Annihilate Typhoons,Tornadoes,Cyclones or Hurricanes • 20110204159-August 25,2011-Weather Management Using Space-Based Power System • 20110284649-November 24,2011-Apparatus and Method for the Mitigation of Rotating Wind Storms • 8079545-December 20,2011-Ground based Manipulation and Control of Aerial Vehicle during nonflying operations • 20120024971-February 2,2012-Methods for Environmental Modification with Climate Control Materials and Coverings • 8262314-September 11,2012-Method for Decreasing the Intensity and Frequency of Tropical Storms or Hurricanes • 0117003-October 5,2012-Geoengineering Method Of Business Using Carbon Counterbalance Credits • 20120267444-October 25,2012-Artificial Freezing Apparatus and Freezing Method Therefor • 20120286096-November 15,2012-Aerial Delivery Devices,Systems and Methods • 20130008365-January 10,2013-System and Method for Decreasing the Intensity and Frequency of Tropical Storms or Hurricanes • 20130015260-January 17,2013-Concept and Model for Utilizing High-Frequency or Radar or Microwave Producing or Emitting Devices to Produce,Effect,Create or Induce Lightning or Lightspeed or Visible to Naked Eye Electromagnetic Pulse or Pulses,Acoustic or Ultrasonic Shockwaves or Booms in the Air,Space,Enclosed,or Upon any Object or Mass,to be Used Solely or as Part of a System,Platform or Device Including Weaponry and Weather Modification • 8373962-February 12,2013-Charged seed cloud as a method for increasing particle collisions and for scavenging airborne biological agents and other contaminants • 20130038063-February 14,2013-Apparatus and Method for Inhibiting the Formation of Tropical Cyclones • 201300043322-February 21,2013-Processes and Apparatus for Reducing the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones • 8402736-March 26,2013-Method and Apparatus for Suppressing Aeroengine Contrails • 8439278-May 14,2013-Apparatus for Producing a Mass of Water Vapor,Apparatus for Producing,Moving,and Climbing a Mass of Water Vapor,and Method of Causing Artificial Stimulation of Rain • 20130175352-July 11,2013-Method to Influence the Direction of Travel of Hurricanes • 20130186127-July 25,2013-Ice Floater for Facilitating Ice-Freezing on Water Surface • 20130206912-August 15,2013-Moisture Dispersion • 20140055876-February 27,2014-Method for Controlling Land Surface Temperature using Stratospheric Airships and Reflector • 20140131471-May 15,2014-Apparatus to Channel Large Air Masses for Climate Modification • 20140145002-May 29,2014-System for Facilitating Cloud Formation and Cloud Precipitation • 20140224894-August 14,2014-Technique to Mitigate Storms using Arrays of Wind Turbines • 8825241-September 2,2014-Autonomous Wave-Powered substance Distribution Vessels for Fertilizing Plankton,Feeding Fish,and Sequestering Carbon from the Atmosphere • 8944363-February 3,2015-Production or Distribution of Radiative Forcing Agents • 20150077737-March 19 2015-System and Methods for Monitoring an Environment • 9002660-April 7,2015-Device and Method for Determining and Indicating Climate-Relevant Effects of a Contrail Produced by an Airplane • 20150230415-August 20,2015-Methods for Decreasing Local Temperature using High Albedo Materials • 20150337224-November 26,2015-Microwave Acceleration of Carbon Gasification Reactions • 9311539-April 12,2016-Aircraft Contrail Detection • 9429348-August 30,2016-Method and Device for Producing Snow • 9491911-November 15,2016-Method for Modifying Environmental Conditions with Ring Comprised of Magnetic Material • 9589473-March 7,2017-Method and System for Automatically Displaying Flight Path,Seeding Path,and Weather Data • 9715039-July 25,2017-Apparatus and System for Smart Seeding within Cloud Formations • 20170217587-August 3,2017-Vehicles and Systems for Weather Modification • 20170303479-October 26,2017-Warm Cloud Catalyst,Preparation Method Therefor and Application Thereof • 20180006422-January 4,2018-Methods for Disrupting Hurricane Activity • 20180006421-January 4,2018-Methods for Disrupting Tornadic Activity • 9924640-March 27,2018-Modifying Sunlight Scatter in the Upper Atmosphere • 20180217119-August 2,2018-Process and Method for the Enhancement of Sequestering Atmospheric Carbon through Ocean Iron Fertilization,and Method for Calculating net Carbon Capture from said Process and Method • 10189753-January 29,2019-Fog-Generating Device Comprising a Reagent and Ignition Means • 2019203461-June 6,2019-Airships for Weather Manipulation • 10314249-June 11,2019-Systems and Methods of Inducing Rainfall • 10375900-August 13,2019-Rain Induced by Supercontinuum Laser Beams • 10433408-October 1,2019-Methods for Affecting Spinning Atmospheric Phenomena • 10435165-October 8,2019-Aircraft Electrically-Assisted Propulsion Control System • 20190364748-December 5,2019-Method and System for Expressing Airborne Cloud Seeding Line Considering Cloud Water • 20200187430-June 18,2020-Helical Artificial Generator of Tornado,Hurricane,Yellow Dust,and Typhoon • 20200196539-June 25,2020-Device for Seeding a Cloud Cell • 10701871-July 7,2020-Systems for Maintaining and/or Decreasing Water Temperature using High Albedo Materials • 20200233115-July 23,2020-Method and System for Determining Cloud Seeding Potential • W02020148644A1-July 23,2020-3d Reduced Graphene Oxide/Sio 2 Composite for Ice Nucleation • 20200261939-August 20,2020-Apparatus for Generating and Optically Characterizing an Aerosol • 2020101897- September 9,2020-Artificial Rainmaking by High Power Laser Initiation Endothermic Reactions through Drone Aircraft Remote Control System • 20200288650-September 17,2020-Technology and Technique to Prevent,Diminish or Interfere with the Formation of Hurricanes on Earth from one or more Platforms in Space • 20200288651-September 17,2020-Methods for Cooling Water Temperature using High Albedo Materials • 20200315104-October 8,2020-Propagating Sound Through Bodies of Water,to Generate and Direct Wind,for the Purpose of Moderating and Affecting Weather Patterns • 20200386970-December 10,2020-Aerostatically Stabilized Atmospheric Reflector to Reduce Solar Irradiance • 10888051-January 12,2021-Intelligent Systems for Weather Modification Programs • 20210037719-February 11,2021-Planetary Weather Modification System • 10941705-March 9,2021-Hanson-Haber Aircraft Engine for the Production of Stratospheric Compounds and for the Creation of Atmospheric Reflectivity of Solar Radiation in the 555nm Range and to Increase Jet Engine Thrust and Fuel Economy through the Combustion of Ammonia and Ammonia By-Products • 2021063943-April 8,2021-Bacterial Preparations for Ice Nucleation • 20210153442-May 27,2021-Systems and Methods for Rain Cloud Initiation • 20210163157-June 3,2021-Artificial Ring,Solenoid System to Terraform • 20210235638-August 5,2021-Weather Management of Cyclonic Events • 2021152336-August 8,2021-Method of Cloud Seeding using Natural Ice Nucleating Agents • 20210285851-September 16,2021-System for Sampling and Analyzing Contrails Generated by an Aircraft • 20210289720-September 23,2021-Systems and Methods for Producing Rain Clouds • 2021105881-October 21,2021-Process for Generating Marine Clouds and Ocean Microbubbles • 20210329922- October 28,2021-Compositions and Methods for Enhanced CO2 Capture and Storage • 20210329852-October 28,2021-Method for Preventing a Formation of,and/or for Dispersing,a Tropical Cyclone,and Arrangement Therefor • 20210352856-November 18,2021-Aerial Electrostatic System for Weather Modification • 2021107294—December 9,2021—Wind Turbines for Marine Cloud Brightening Dispersion • 2022003028—January 6,2022—Apparatus for Precipitation of Atmospheric Water • 23220065599—March 3,2022—Rocket for Artificial Rainfall using Ejection Hygroscopic Flare • 11274534—March 15,2022—Artificial rain to support water flooding in remote oil fields • 20220113450—April 14,2022—Calculation Method of Total Artificial Precipitation in Seeding Area Compared to Non-Seeding Area • 2022094269 — May 5,2022—Reflective Hollow SRM Material and Methods • 3994976—May 11,2022—Apparatus for Electro-Spray Cloud Seeding • 11330768—May 17,2022—Systems and Methods for Producing Rain Clouds • 20220268505—August 25,2022—Method and Apparatus for Making Falling Snow • 2022186970—September 9,2022—Method of Geoengineering to Reduce Solar Radiation • 20220355925—November 10,2022—Aeronautical Car and Associated Features • 20220357482—November 10,2022—Method and System of Analyzing Ingredients of Artificial Rainfall for Verification of Cloud Seeding Effect • 20230050373—February 16,2023—Electromagnetic System to Modify Weather • 20230075132—March 9,2023—System for Moderating Energy Absorption at the Earth's Surface with a Programmable Forcing Network of Climate Control Panels • 20230117390—April 20,2023—System and Method for Proactive and Reversible Mitigation of Storm/Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone • 20230126982—April 27,2023—Method for Analyzing Effect of Hygroscopic Seeding Material Sprayed on Ground Aerosol Concentration Through Airborne Cloud Seeding Experiment • 20230141493—May 11,2023—Device for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle to Deploy a Rainfall Catalytic Bomb • 20230149876—May 18,2023—Coated Chloride Salt Particles and Methods of Making and Using the Same 79 Responses to Extensive List Of Patents 1. nox says: August 10,2024 at 10:20 am An evil enemy will burn his own nation to the ground to rule over the ashes. Reply. 2. Jette says: Augus.6t ,2024 at 12:45 am GREAT WORK.... Now we must demand our human rights—NO one have the right to spray anything in the atmosphere no one can give GO for that noone has that kind of human power —and WHO can even Patent something that could be a human helt issue anyway...it is Repulsive. Reply. 3. Mike says: February 29,2024 at 1:50 am ...and those are just the U.S.patents...other countries do their own research...and not everything will be patented... Reply. 0 Pedro says: March 11,2024 at 8:13 am I have occasionally read about independent analysis which showed unidentified fungal spores present on the ground after a fumigation. 4. lebron james says: January 10,2024 at 8:55 am hey guys Reply. 5. Brett Z Mason says: August 13,2023 at 9:28 am Thank you Reply. 6. Zugzwang says: February 26,2023 at 5:10 am We're being 69'd.Barium has an atomic number of 56 on the periodic table of elements.Aluminum has an atomic number of 13 on the periodic table of elements.56+13=69.Patent 4686605A mentions using Barium for cold plasma purposes in the 5th paragraph under Description.Patent 5003186 mentions utilizing Aluminum oxides in the 1st paragraph under Summary of The Invention. Another point to ponder is the chemical symbol for Barium is Ba.The chemical symbol for Aluminum is AL.Ba+al=Ba'al.Ba'al is the god of weather,rain,wind,lightning according to Wikipedia. So,to sum things up,Ba'al is 69ing us. Reply O Paula says: June 27,2023 at 7:43 am Thank you for breaking that down!That makes perfect sense.People are all the time telling me,weather warfare and cloud seeding isn't biblical;God is in control;and when I try to explain that while the Bible tells of unpredictable weather,and to expect 110 lb hailstones,I just couldn't come to the words to explain how demonic principalities are who we battle.THIS explanation helps me so much more when explaining it.Perhaps.I appreciate it.P 7. Researcher says: August 10,2022 at 8:29 am Just scrolling down this list takes my breath away. Thank you for this!!! Reply 8. Bel says: July 19,2022 at 12:32 am Just a quick one to say what an absolute AMAZING group of people are here....it totally warms my heart. Thank you Dane for all that you do and have done over these many many years Reply 9. gary says: April 17,2022 at 8:28 am The corruption is the controlling factor in all things.Spread this message... Reply 10. gal from Israel says: May 13,2019 at 5:31 am GREAT WORK.THANK YOU FOR ALL YOUR EFFORTS. Reply. 11. Marcos says: May 12,2019 at 6:40 pm Esto!Es Una barbaridad estan matandonos Como ONU Obejas gracias graciasQue Las Personas de heno Que se preocupan preocupanPOR ESTOS Casos Porque las Personas Hay Que desconocen ESTOS:Temas y algunos adj adj ya fallecieron pecado sable Lo Que Nos estan hacendo Una Nuestros cielos ya la Humanidad ENTERA y asi hay mucha gente que to niega adesconocen temasalgunosfallecieronpecado sable La Que Nos Nuestros Toda Costa aqui en Costa Rica ya to Estamos EXPERIMENTANDO muy ONU el el menudo sedan las fumigaciones y Son Muchas Por Las Noches para despistar y no hay Dejar mucha Huella y Las Personas Que No Saben Ven al amanecer Cielos blanquesinos Y Creen Que normales hijo.EL Menudo se dan las fumigaciones hijo y por los Muchas de Las Noches para despistar y sen Dejar Fumigaciones hijo y por los muchas Las Noches para despistar y sin Dejar Reply. 12. Chief Taina Amayi says: December 26,2018 at 12:23 pm The criminal cabal known as government fears the truth.I will gather any and all credible data and evidence that I can.I do not want to be held accountable to The Creator for not speaking the truth,and exposing these crimes.Now,with the rollout of 5G technology(which is unequivocally a weapon),the affects of genoengineering,climate engineering,solar radiateion management,et al.,the affects will be intensified as never before.The"officials"will ignore,and even destroy any evidence I present,but I do not care.I am an investigator,and as such,will gather,and present, the evidence;keep copies for myself,and will keep sharing until I get a response. Geoengineering is not the only crime bringing us to the very door of death for All Living Beings.The anthropogenic crimes simply compound the affects of what Dane refers to as,"The Elephant In The Sky."I wish to share a video of mine,as a reminder of what we're up against.I pray that we can all stand together,and stand as one against the omnicide being perpetrated.Many blessings to you all. https://youtu.be/AFAtLk_EXF8 Reply. o Paul Graham says: February_19,2021 at 1:45 am Chief Taina Amayi.Lovely video.Hauntingly beautiful music Hope you don't mind.I shared your video and words to my Facbook profile.Take care.Scottish Paul. o Daniel S says: February 13,2022 at 10:25 am Hello Chief, the video does not exist anymore.Whare can I find it? Please let me know. Thank you Daniel o maziyar says: April 30,2022 at 3:14 am Hello the video does not exist anymore.Where can I find it? Please let me know. • Brent says: July 22,2022 at 9:42 am Hello Chief Taina Amayi This link doesn't work anymore.Is there anyway that you can post this on rumble? Thank you Brent o Penny Clark says: May 10,2023 at 3:13 pm God bless you for all of your hard work,efforts and determination to deliver the TRUTH,also blessings to you! 13. E.Rawlins says: March 18,2018 at 12:49 pm Hi All, I have been in India for the last 7 months. I have traveled extensively and I noticed that in large cities and rural areas the sky is NO longer blue. It is hazy grey more or less constantly. When I tell people that something is wrong with the colour of the sky,they think I am crazy. They even try to explain to me as to why the colour of the sky is hazy grey. Their explanations are goofy. There are over a billion people here and they are busy looking at their smart phone but not at the sky! How do I convince my friends about climate geo-engineering???? ER Reply. • Giovanni says: March 12,2020 at 6:53 am Hi ER, I live in northern Italy,when I've realized the criminal sprying operations,It's been difficult for me to accept this truth but even more difficult it's been to realized how difficult is to get people aware around me. It almost take my breathe away to speak with my smarther friends,asking them to look at the skyes and get the answer:"why?It's normal.It's always been like this,I remember those trails since I was baby". Sometimes I feel really powerless,those criminals can do it because most of the people are"stupid",lobotomized.In a certain sense,they are all accomplices. A really hard thruth for me it's been to realize that my father too,does not believes to my words while trust completely to the TV.It's really an hard task for the people with they open mind and eyes to live their lives into a"zombies"like context.Happy people jogging under totally chemical skyes without noticing nothing strange. Websites like this are an island of rare people,unfortunately too much dispersed and separated. Hug,Giovanni o Ano says: April 20,2021 at 6:52 am No way.This is also the case in Germany. o Leslie Lamb says: June 25.2023 at 11:34 am I live in the Midwest united states and people are the same here.They either don't want to hear it,some think I'm crazy, but how can they not care when its killing every bit of life on earth! 14. Bob Martin says: December 31,2017 at 11:48 pm https://impactethics.ca/2016/05/02/canadians-need-vaccine-injury-compensation/  https://ca.linkedin.com/in/bob-martin-4178ab113 Reply. 15.Anonymous—A Message To Kylie Jenner/iamanonymous.com says: April 27,2017 at 10:03 am [...]https://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/links-to-geoengineering=patents/List of Cloud seeding patents registered https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5is16A8pfw Proof Geo-engineering and weather modification are happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isSrSgAFr8Q More Proof of cloud seeding https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUfBlfeuHbl Operation Popeye 1960 —1972 the origin of cloud seeding https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0a_CmYwc4g Contrails don't turn on and off!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hh5z4a_eGs0 Contrails can't turn off unless you turn off the jet engine https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdO813p6zJ4 Closeup of sprayers being turned off and on https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5T4KcM5GB4 Chem-webs falling from the sky https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnDAm52f9P1 These are NOT spider webs!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wx_51XFQwRk Chemical webs being sighted in tree branches https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAGtGmNYIQI more Chem-webs in the trees[...] Reply. o Barbara says: April 7,2023 at 4:20 pm THANK YOU,THANK YOU VERY MUCH!!! I'm Trying to gather As Much info on EVERYTHING I Can, I Need to know&pass this very Terrifying Scurry Nightmare.... I Cant find the words to my emotions right now...Thanks again Barb 16. Dodo says: November 26,2016 at 10:59 am If we continue down the beaten path of trying to convince the masses,the few,the people in our every day lives,the people who have brains riddled with heavy metals,brains so sick with toxins that it alters there perceptions,their temperaments,and their ability to process something alien to their routine(something at crossroads with their everyday thought processes),then I believe we are hopeless.The fight is not hopeless,the angle is.except for the people who have taken the action to completely remove these toxins from the crevices of their brains,we are all sick. everyday I see people acting from irrational anger,and it seems to progressively worsen over time.I have seen the people in my family hit new rock bottoms,tear either apart,and ruin lifelong relationships over virtually nothing.people are unreachable through normal approach.there minds have been broken apart and rewired through all forms of media.hit at every angle in a meticulously designed system of human persuasion.I fully believe that I have a minor case of autism,something I've suffered with my entire life.something that strayed me away from most people,and perhaps made me less vulnerable to all these techniques of manipulation. My point is,the government has already designed a complex system to put people asleep,who says we can't utilize all their techniques to do the opposite. Reply. • Florence Roessler says: September 14,2017 at 12:32 pm This geoengineering of weather appears to be a control of people and countries for one purpose ONE WORLD ORDER. A goal of long making by powerful people. Nothing will stop them—they have come too far now. It is worldwide active. • J K says: October 23,2017 at 10:18 am The Air Force is spraying this program big time in Eastern,WA.They run it out of Fairchild AFB near Spokane and hit the Spokane county and Stevens county numerous times a week.Just recently spraying trails one right after the other,so,you could see multiple trails of about 12 super close together,so,you could not miss seeing them.They also do X and J patterns every so often,just yesterday they were spraying with winds in excess of 20 miles per hour and if you go on to the weatherchannel.com and it shows sunny and all of a sudden it changes to cloudiness,you know they have been informed to change it because they will be spraying.Keep up the fight and inform everyone you know,more people are waking up to this corruption by governments. o simone says: December 12,2017 at 7:19 pm Please let me share your powerful comment on my Google page.MANY THANKS! 17. Tony B.says: September 12,2016 at 2:23 pm Hello I'm Tony I live in the state of Florida in the U.S. I got sent here via Youtube... However I am glad I found this page... I have been telling people to LOOK UP for years.. I saw someone mention here about O,X and U shapes with the chem trails..I happen to remember once a few years ago watching a jet spraying a chem trail strait across the sky when it started turning...It ended making a huge J shape as it turned 180 degrees and started heading back the way that it came from..And then it stopped spraying...And left the huge J in the sky..As if the pilot knew he was fixing to run out of stuff and turned to go back. So don't ever let anyone tell you that crap is normal.. Its gonna take a lot but we need to stick together and get the truth out there to the closed minded dummies... Thanks for reading and letting me post... Tony B. Roply • GEO STORM INVESTIGATOR says: September 10,2017 at 8:33 pm PLEASE PUT THE MOST RECENT EVIL PATENTS ON WEATHER WEAPONS UP,TO GO WITH THESE!!!!INCLUDING PULSE WEAPONS,GMO FOOD POISONING BUY AIR,ECT,ALL OF IT CONNECTS!!!AND U KNOW SOON THIS DATA WILL DISAPPEAR!!!!YOU ARE THE ONLY TRUSTED SITE TO HOUSE ALL OF IT FROM THEN...1800'S TO NOW 2017 PENTAGON GEO PROGRAMS IN THE TRILLIONS!!!AND PROMOTED WORLDWIDE BY CIA,PENTAGON,BRENNAN ECT. 18. MB says: July 12,2016 at 10:17 am No suspicious trails for 2 days—West Sussex,UK Don't give up everyone,there are more of us than you realise. Reply. 19. James says: May 10,2016 at 7:40 am IT IS ABSOLUTELY DISGUSTING THAT OUR GOVTS ARE BEHIND CHEMICAL SPRAYING, AND YET THEY DENY IT WHEN THERE IS ALL KINDS OF PROOF OUT THERE.. Reply. O Christian Kok says: February 7,2017 at 8:00 am Exactly James and the knowledge we all citizens are paying taxes to get back these chemicals..in stead of clean air we can breathe..CIA NATO,NSA and Bilderberg are worlds most biggest Maffia organizations which must be destroyed by the common people who stand for their word of justice. 20. jay says: April 19,2016 at 9:41 am With all these patents I still don't understand how people are in denial about this!!It's mind boggling how people don't think our govts would do this but as we all know they are!! Reply 21. Lorraine Blenderman Kubiak says: January 8,2016 at 10:10 am Santa Susana field test laboratory:Sodium Reactor(Experimental without our consent),not water cooled.13 rods melted within the reactor.again experimental acts without our consent.One of the worst nuclear accidents aside from Chernobyl and the ongoing Fukushima.They sprayed Iodine from aircraft to literally keep people from dropping like flies to their death when they vented toxic waste into the air. .Patent#?1958.Rather than an explosion,they just vented the the meltdown into the atmosphere.Kept the secret for 20 years.)lived in Simi Valley.My father worked at the facility.I live near Diablo Nuclear Power Plant and wonder how much venting goes on within this facility? We are never told the truth.We have a right to know the truth.So now there are new nuclear facilities going to be built in Georgia,USA.We have the right to demand answers to the untold and we have the right to say if we consent or non consent.Now Porter Ranch right below the ongoing toxic Santa Susana field test laboratory is expelling Methane gas beyond acceptance.When do we realize that it is time to demand answers to the genocide going on? We do not have a government/a government has us?The officials in charge that we pay and work for us,are not doing their job that we hired them for.These persons need to be fired,I refuse to pay persons that are not doing their job. Every single person that lies about geoengineering needs to be held responsible for conspiring within the program of using humans for experimental purposes without our consent.Those persons can vary from News broadcast persons(educated weather persons?),policeman,city council persons,all state government persons,the president himself and all military persons....+WE HIRED YOU TO PROTECT AND SERVE USI YOU ARE NOT DOING YOUR JOB!WE THE PEOPLE DO NOT CONSENT TO PAYING PERSONS THAT LIE.PERSONS THAT CONDONE KILLING HUMANS BY MEANS OF SPRAYING POISON IN TO OUR AIR EVERY DAY THAT IS KILLING US.WE NEED TO WAKE UP AND FIRE ALL THESE WORTHLESS MURDERING PERSONS.WE THE PEOPLE NEED TO TAKE THE MONEY OUT OF THE POCKETS THAT WE HAVE LINED FOR SO MANY YEARS.I hope that our brothers and sisters in the military wake up and realize that they are just being used.They need to remember that they do not have to take orders that betray mankind and our Constitutional rights..You can say NO,I say NO,,,,,NO I DO NOT CONSENT TO STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOL SPRAYING FROM AIRCRAFT. Reply. O Dr.Parthenia Grant says: February 20,2016 at 7:51 am On Thurday,February 18,2016 I noticed that Films for Action(www.filmsforaction.org)had taken down my video"Open Up Your Eyes"which contains information about geoengineering. The film had been posted a couple of weeks prior and had 4.3 stars out of five(when I had last check on it over the weekend)with almost 1,500 views. The film only had two comments, which I cannot read,apparently because you need a specific app to view comments on that site. I called Films for Action and left a message,then emailed the editor asking why my film had been taken down when it contained no copyright infringements and was still up on YouTube. When I checked the next day,Friday,February 19,2016,my film had been put back upon their website,which contains over 6,000 films,many of which are controversial. My film, however,now had gone down to 3.2 stars,apparently due to one comment(prior to that it only had two comments). It also had the following disclaimer from the editor: Films For Action editor's note:We don't support the claims made about HAARP,chemtrails or in general the New World Order frame.This is a site member contribution by the filmmaker (we allow anyone to contribute content to the site). When I saw the short film on Geoengineering's website about the public being programmed to accept geoengineering by academia,as a professor,I can personally attest to that fact. The FBI paid me a visit on campus,apparently for discussing controversial subjects like constitutional rights,the Patriot Act,and our loss of civil liberties.I asked the two young agents if they had not taken an oath to uphold the constitution and they said"yes."I then asked if we still had a constitution and they said"yes."I asked if I had done anything that was unconstitutional and they said"no."I asked if they had a warrant for my arrest for teaching the truth and they said"no"so I asked them to leave and never bother me again. They left. I never heard from them again,but the harassment by administration kicked up to a feverish pitch to the point where last year I took an early retirement to divert my energy from defending myself against lies and false accusations to redirect my energy full time to my radio show,to writing,and becoming a short film maker."Open Up Your Eyes"is my first short film which was released last month. I am releasing my second film next week. I am the Host of Divine Love Talk on CRN(www.crntalk.com)which is a national all radio talk network. My show covers topics like health,wellness,relationships,spirituality,and anything that affects our civil liberties and freedoms. I believe that the pen is mightier than the sword and will continue to speak out on these topics,on air,as long as I continue to have the support of CRN(Cable Radio Network)for my show,(Divine Love Talk has been on air now almost four years). My show has now moved to Saturday mornings at 10 am from Mondays at 10 am Pacific time. Below is the link to"Open Up Your Eyes"on YouTube and a short description of my 11 minute film that is apparently now being censored. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUYkPVIeBX0 This video manages to be informative,satirical,and touching as it covers serious issues that affect all of humanity,like the poisoning of our food,air and water supply.It also covers mandatory vaccinations;police brutality and our loss of civil liberties.It was born from a spoken word piece written by peace advocate,educator,and humanitarian,Dr.Parthenia Grant who also narrated&directed the video. If you enjoyed Look Up by Gary Turk or Sorry by Prince Ea,you will LOVE Open Up Your Eyes. "Open Your Eyes"offers simple solutions to the issues raised in it and follows in the footsteps of documentaries like:"Thrive;""What in the World Are They Spraying,""Kymatica,"Zeitgeist;" etc. The creators hope to spark discussions that lead to taking actions toward reclaiming rights stolen right from under us as well as putting an end to corruption by starting at the local level first. I travel to Mt.Shasta often as it is one of my favorite spiritual retreats in this hemisphere.When I am there,I pains me to see how the mountain is pelted relentlessly with chemicals whenever I visit.I will continue to speak out on air,write about and make films about the assault on our health and personal freedoms. I think we need to speak out about and share each individual attempt to censor and silence us until we no longer have to fear being silenced. Dr.Parthenia Grant • Lynton Grayson says: April 23,2016 at 3:39 pm The governments are nothing but terrorists themselves but they do everything in stealth mode o Chief Taina Amayi says: December 26,2018 at 12:04♦;'m Dear Dr.Grant,I am very sorry for the censorship,and harassment,that you have endured in your struggle for the truth.Please be assured that you are not alone.I,for one,stand by you, as I am certain that many others do,as well.Many blessings to you. 22. Morten Hansen says: November 3,2015 at 2:40 am I just posted the entire patent list,to all who claim or refuse that it is actualy going on..How most forgot even the weather is beyond me!We will triumph ladies and gentlemen,we wil triumph, never doubt it for a second.Even if the light turn of,search in that tunnel and never give up!!!Much love and respect to you all! p1y o stormy says: June 4,2016 at 2:54 pm Kiera...you have to understand that even us AWAKENED(?)folks lived and believed in the same world they now see. The world that they are comfortable with. This has been in all our faces all our lives! This is NOT NEW. Amazing...when caught up in a'working'world that takes up tons of energy...to have someone tell you that this world is NOT what we think it is at all... they will defend THEIR reality. I had no idea about anything until 2008 and then I got hit little by little to finally see and accept this very scary world you and I see today. They aren't READY to see the world is different.Some are far more scared than others. The naysayers that get on these sites are ON THE VERGE of changing otherwise they wouldn't imagine reading stuff part of them knows is more true than they thought. Best to remain the'silent,mysterious type'that everyone knows is a brain and shows maturity than trying to tell them that the world they SEE,know,have lived within is NOT AT ALL real! Every now and then when the timing is right hit them with a question'you've been chewing on'and listen to their response. Otherwise if you want to lose friends FAMILY possible friends then keep telling them THEY ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING? Grins. Hey,I've been there and wish someone had explained to me the bigger picture that I should have considered before opening my mouth. The ONLY thing we can do right now is get the information out there but gotta do it very carefully and it should be targeted to an individual's needs,personalized sorta, to not alienate someone right off the bat. You are doing the right thing but it really hurts to lose old friends and ALL one's family. Feels pretty isolating and you wonder if it is true that you are the one that is crazy not everyone else! Huggs. My best advice is to be very,very particular with whom you bring these controversial(why????)subjects up for debate. And listen,pose questions versus statements,smile a lot then get back to whatever REALLY interests this other person. I had to learn the hard way,hopefully this will make sense to you...take care. o stormy says: June 4,2016 at 3:23 pm This is such a relief to talk on a site where most all are on the same page,actually learning something from one another! I would absolutely adore you if you could go to Earth Sciences on Stack Exchange(fairly good site...I am on their landscaping and gardening site mostly)and try talking with these brainiacs. Geoengineers! Be prepared to be put down have your question dumped whatever...truly would be wonderful if others tried to ambush these guys by numbers. Get some damn answers out of them! Brainiacs should definitely try this site!! This would be a great place to make BIG MIND CHANGES. Earth Science,geo-engineering...do not use the label chemtrails!! Persistent contrails or geoengineered spraying... I gave them the patent list and I did get the response from these earth science buddies and brainiacs,ex-scientists,pilots...that KNOW THEY know it all and wow!some of them had'raised eyebrows'...but that is the farthest I've gotten. Just do not use the word chemtrails! to Lynton Grayson...the government does NOT DO ANYTHING IN STEALTH MODE. And THAT pisses me off. Maybe it looks like that to you now but hang in there and you will start feeling like the 3rd grader they imagine you to be.They LIE and disseminate half truths and make videos that are hollywood produced to brainwash all of us.They lie blatantly and right in our faces...And by golly,most of us buy it!!We all did at one time! We weren't born with parents that were skeptical and questioned anything the gov't was doing....we all lived in the same la la land and some of us finally wake the hell up....Once one'wakes up'one can not go back...there is no sense whatsoever,nor facts or any reason to dissuade us back to where we were complaisant peons. Get used to it and try to learn the ART OF PERSUASION which by the way is even a more critical skill now than ever before. Good luck sweetcakes. We all need it... argghhhhh! Just be glad(I think)that you've enough courage to even be able to'wake up'...not much of a prize,sighs. But I think very highly of those that can chose to stand outside the BOX or the GROUP. Kudos,Lynton! o Charles Labiano says: December 13,2016 at 1:22pm You are not the least autistic. Your command of language and grammar is excellent.You are right in that"we"can not change the mindset of"the masses". So the goal should be to change or modify the mindset of subgroups of the masses;the groups that have half a chance at the truth. That would be the upper middle classes. Get subscribed to Paul Craig Roberts.org. He is a blogger. Look at his bio first to get an idea of his background. You need to join a movement that"bigger than yourself'.;a movement that will give more meaning to your life;a movement that will give purpose to your life;a movment that will give you direction and avenues of action. That movement is coming within 2 years. We do not have a lot of time. Search Kevin Shipp,ex-CIA Office tells the truth; on the net and also him in relation to"the Shadow Government" 23. Ewe says: June 18,2015 at 6:12 am Hello from Sweden! Here they spray daily intensive especially over the Daycare Centers!!! Reply. 24. Concerned says: May 15,2015 at 9:20 am Do"ordinary contrails"really come in X,0,U formations? Heart attack patients,fasten your seatbelts tight,you are in for a wild ride! Woo hoo h000 rollercoaster sky city ahoy!Have lots of fun,the captain is speaking,the fasten seatbelts sign is on! I guess the government shills who only think they can confuse us by chanting such ridiculous refrains as"ordinary contrails",have a few rather glaring oversights.The lies are just plain and obvious,and nobody can possibly claim that these X,0 and U patterns in the sky,are"ordinary contrails". Oh and the parallels and grids?I guess Air Traffic Control would be in mighty fine trouble if these very close-flying planes were to crash! Mimicking sun's rays coming out of a cloud?Good try.The only problem is,that clouds don't come in these formations and never,ever,are real clouds just straight as a ruler. They can lie and tell us all they want about any"Scientific"argument they want.But in the end it is plain and obvious:They are lying.And we have to call this out. Video footage of planes scooping a U in the sky and shutting the spray on/off,would be great....as happened directly overhead when I was driving.If i had been able to stop and get video footage, I would have.We need more and more of such footage and this all has to stop.We deserve clear drinking water,clean air to breathe,and clean soil not found to have higher than normal levels of aluminum nation-wide.I guess the Feds want to induce cancer and Alzheimer's while we pay for this with our tax dollars,eh? Enough already!End the nonsense. Reply. 25. kiera says: February 16,2015 at 3:14 am Thank you for the info.Please keep it coming.Im trying to explain it to my parents who are so intelligent in all ways but the way of the world and whats happening.Im in australia watching the media tell everyone lies.im trying to make people aware but coming across as a raving lunatic. Reply • Lynton Grayson says: April 23,2016 at 3:50 pm The governments are nothing but terrorists themselves but they do everything in stealth mode o stormy says: June 4,2016 at 2:48 pm Kiera...you have to understand that even us AWAKENED(?)folks lived and believed in the same world they now see. The world that they are comfortable with. This has been in all our faces all our lives! This is NOT NEW. Amazing...when caught up in a'working'world that takes up tons of energy...to have someone tell you that this world is NOT what we think it is at all... they will defend THEIR reality. I had no idea about anything until 2008 and then I got hit little by little to finally see and accept this very scary world you and I see today. They aren't READY to see the world is different.Some are far more scared than others. The naysayers that get on these sites are ON THE VERGE of changing otherwise they wouldn't imagine reading stuff part of them knows is more true than they thought. Best to remain the'silent,mysterious type'that everyone knows is a brain and shows maturity than trying to tell them that the world they SEE,know,have lived within is NOT AT ALL real! Every now and then when the timing is right hit them with a question'you've been chewing on'and listen to their response. Otherwise if you want to lose friends FAMILY possible friends then keep telling them THEY ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING? Grins. Hey,I've been there and wish someone had explained t0 me the bigger picture that I should have considered before opening my mouth. The ONLY thing we can do right now is get the information out there but gotta do it very carefully and it should be targeted to an individual's needs,personalized sorta, to not alienate someone right off the bat. You are doing the right thing but it really hurts to lose old friends and ALL one's family. Feels pretty isolating and you wonder if it is true that you are the one that is crazy not everyone else! Huggs. My best advice is to be very,very particular with whom you bring these controversial(why????)subjects up for debate. And listen,pose questions versus statements,smile a lot then get back to whatever REALLY interests this other person. I had to learn the hard way,hopefully this will make sense to you...take care. 26. Bruce says: December 31,2014 at 3:10 am Well said Jane.Just yesterday I had been speaking with a woman about the consequences of Chemtrails and the symptomatic effects of them on us ie:The Morgellon epidemic,and she blew me off.You could see in her eyes that she thought that I needed to be put into a rubber room. Reply 27. Meghan says: December 17,2014 at 5:25 pm Evan,I feel exactly the same.The majority of America is so completely blind and ignorant,it's shocking!I am so disheartened.We are literally under attack,and it seems as though NO ONE CARES!!I can't even find it in myself to blame them;they are so distracted and dumbed down by the elite...it's tragic. Reply o ll fred says: December 10,2015 at 12:32 pm I think it is not so much ignorance,but disbelief that the government could allow such experiments,since they all have to breathe the polluted air they produce.When I mentioned this to some friends,they thought that I was simply paranoid. 28. Meghan says: December 17,2014 at 5:13 pm I have looked these patents up on the US government's patent website.Interestingly enough,the patent 3795262(weather modification process)is unavailable,yet all the others I searched are. Strange. Reply. • Pamela Rad says: July 3,2024 at 1:05 am Very interesting!! 29. Hazel Lucks says: December 7,2014 at 2:33 pm Everyone thinks im a nutter when I talk about chemtrails.I just keep on talking.They were spraying above my farmhouse last sunday.After a crystal clear day they started at dusk.The sky was soon covered with the trails widening to form clouded out skies.I live in s.w scotland. Reply 30. Jane says: November 6,2014 at 7:58 am I totally agree Evan.Like you say,when you tell people and show them the evidence they think you are nutty.And it really Irk's me also that they go to the debunking sites to refute what you are telling them.The reason why they do this is because they do not want to believe what is really happening on earth.Watch Unsealed Conspiraces on Netflix.I am surprised that some of this is Aired.Well again you can choose whether to believe it or not.One doesn't have to be that Bright to see what is going on.One only has to use their senses in order to figure it out.Starting with ones eyes and ears would be the first step.Just look up and listen.Only the Sheeple follow the Herd into their own demise.And the people that are involved in this don't care.In their minds it's going to happen and is happening.They get paid extremely well for participating in the program. Another Foggy Day. Another day without Sunshine. Being Conditioned real well. Good work on fooling everyone Enviroment Canada. Piss's me off that people are Dumb enough to believe it is Normal. Reply 31.=Azaima says: August 27,2014 at 2:34 am great smoking gun Reply. 32. f p,//jaycearacelyn.soup.io says: April 13,2014 at 6:53 am I'll immediately seize your rss as I can not in finding your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you have any?Please allow me understand in order that I may subscribe. Thanks. Reply. 33. Andrea M.Stanley-Montes says: April 12,2014 at 6:48 pm Population control has been in effect for 2 to 3 generations at the very least.its been happening in Africa and is evinced by the HAARP weather control method in the above list.There is a confirmed HAARP plant in Alaska which Americans are afraid have been used on that.However,according to the description of the patent,the transmission to control climate by region how to transmit from the opposite side of the globe of the targeted region.the opposite side of the world from Alaska happens to be Mozambique.research via Google of Mozambique will confirm high mortality rates due to disease which ultimately stem from climate changes.If anyone is interested and knowing the future of America,if the current course remains unaltered,as we have to do is look to the generational sufferings of fellow human beings in Africa and Middle East. Reply. O Samantha Brown says: December 15,2019 at 10:48 am This sounds so sad but it all falls in line with agenda 21 a sick and selfish evil plot counter humanity created by the so called elites! 34. david mcadam says: April 5,2014 at 9:09 am found these us patent 6017 302 subliminalacoustic manipulation of nervous system.us 5935054 magnetic excitement of sensory responses us 3951134 apparatus and method for romotely monitoring and altering brainwaves. Reply. 35. Dyanna says: April 2,2014 at 4:21 am Thank you,you are not alone,I feel exactly the same way.We know what they are up to,google Agenda 21.These psychopaths are killing off their own families as well.I dont care how mind controlled they are,they are going down with us.Just remember,evil has within it,its seeds of its own destruction and they will FAIL. Meiy 36. Evan says: March 28,2014 at 5:51 pm You can put these patents right in front of people and you can tell them to google certain findings on this.The people that I have expressed this issue think that I am nutty.The ones that show any type of interest will go to the De-bunking sites and try to defy what you are trying to tell them.I really wonder what is in their head all the time.As much as I am unhappy with what is going on.I am more disgusted with people that don't believe you when they have not done any research in depth.I just watched a bit on TV saying about the Autism that is in unborn children and the mother doesn't even know about the escalating rates that are ongoing with this.Big Pharma is only part of the the Heap Pile.Everytime I see a Mason Temple it Irks me.I have come to the end of my rope almost on this.I myself don't see any clear future for people because they are listening to the Media and believing what they are being told.The other thing that also gets to me are all the Save Our Troops magnets on vehicles.I guess people really think that they are doing everyone a huge favor when that is so far from the truth.I watch the sky everyday and you are very lucky to get a clear blue sky.Then I constantly hear about people talking about the weather and not having the faintest clue on what is going on.Also you hear people talking about such and such a person being sick.I guess most of them live in a Day Dream because they might as well be living that way.Then I hear mothers talking to other mothers talking about Mundane things which make no sense whatsoever.Constantly happening are people texting in their vehicles.I see it through the rear view mirror.More girls than guys it seems.I don't know what to think anymore because our World is being destroyed to accommodate the well off because they only have one thing in mind.Even the politicians,firefighters,ambulance,cops and many more are keeping a tight zip on this.They don't seem to care about anything,not even their family becAuse the money is so important.It is a Very Sad Situation.Gloria Gaynor said it right in her song.Only The Strong Will Survive.We are on a Trip To Disaster that is a for Sure Thing. Unfortunate at it Is. Meiy • Tadar says: September 19,2015 at 4:31 pm Have you paid attention to how the weather announcers now often say"we will"as they speak about changing weather patterns? It may be their coded way to alert those of us with eyes to see and ears to hear about what's going on,and still keep their jobs. We do need eyes on the inside who will leak,by any means necessary,correct info to the rest of their human kin—we all came from one original family. For those who don't agree with that;get any group of people that has a 20 year(a generation)span between their ages,and using the ones at the 10/11 year areas start counting how many direct ancestors each has— regardless of the daddy claiming the child or not—going back 45—50 generations. At each step back the number of direct ancestors doubles because we all have a mom/dad. It will look like this:You=1;your mom/dad=2;your mom's mom/dad=2+your dad's mom/dad=2(2+2=4)4 grandparents;your grandma's mom's mom/dad=2,her dad's mom/dad =2(4 total),your grandpa's mom's mom/dad=2,his dad's mom/dad=2(4 total):(4+4=8)8 great grandparents;etc.,etc.,etc.into generations 45-50 generations. The number of direct ancestors for each person in that group would be an exponential number of the total population of the Planet Earth today 9/19/2015 which is currently more than 7,000,000,000 people— that's for each person,just going back 45—50 generations of direct ancestors—not counting their children or siblings. At what point in time will their ancestral heritages cross,and how often will they cross by the time one gets into generation number 50? Which tribe,and or ethnic group,and or"race"of people,and or nation,and or continent,and or the Planet Earth has ever had that many people in it at one time,and they successfully reproduced themselves? This makes it very clear that there is only one(1)race and it's called human aka homo sapiens sapiens some add the other sapiens. WAKE UN Quit drinking their mind numbing kool aid, and beware(and aware)of the Georgia Guidestones? • charlie says: December 7,2015 at 8:41 am I agree with u,remember,failure starts when the fight stops. 37. Lou says: November 22,2013 at 6:43 pm "It's a money making scheme which is ultimately designed to benefit banks and shareholders regardless of the effect on the health of the planet and those beings who live in it." Thanks for this NEEDED site! Anything those who run this planet want to implement they first make PROFITABLE.ANYTHING can be made profitable if you hold the political power to rearrange markets,minds and"laws". These guys do hold the power. Here is what I believe is quite probable. The people running things are currently implementing MANY methods to reduce the Global Population of HUMANS.I could give dozens of examples but results speak for themselves.Each year in the US human fertility as measured by sperm counts et al continue to decline.About 25%of couples in the US are having trouble conceiving.This trend has persisted for many decades and is not random. In the 1960s there was a lot of talk of"Global COOLING".Methods were being thought of to reduce"Global Cooling".Those running things came to the conclusion that a Global Cooling period would commence in about the year 2000.They reasoned that if this cooling could be accentuated the depopulation effect of the COLD,COLD kills warm does not,would be multiplied. Thus was born the"Global Warming"deadly scam and with it all the sunlight reflecting geoengineering we have seen being implemented over the last two decades to supposedly reduce"Global Warming".What has been archived is what was desired from day one when the temperature measuring devices were placed in close proximity of heat sources,sunlight has been reflected from the earth in sufficient amounts to accentuate"Global Cooling"which is under way NOW. Please get some blankets folks it is getting COLD.In my opinion many of us world wide are in mortal danger and it is NOT"climate"or"Global XXX"which is the ultimate threat.No it is those nice people who give you two fives for a ten,or rather their BIG bosses. Reply. 38. lcareaboutmyearth says: October 30,2013 at 5:54 pm I tried to send a link to admin via your contact page.lt is not working.. Reply. • YN says: October 31,2013 at 4:34 am Thanks for the heads up! 39. Simon Fernandez says: October 6,2013 at 11:29 pm Thanks for all the useful information on your website.I'm living in Europe where geoengineering is representing a hudge problem.People here still do not understand the danger as our governments make us believe that harmless contrails are involved.I'm wondering the following:Since some time crews of various aircompanies are suffering from aerotoxic syndrome.During their flights they're feeling sick and they are suffering from neurological symptoms,headaches,palpitations,nausea and even fainting.Kerosene fuel vapor entering the cockpit passing through the airfilters is said to be the cause.But if this is true,why do the aircompanies refuse to comment in public and why no further research is done to solve this problem?I'm wondering if the alluminum particles and other additives of chemtrails might be the real cause.Besides it seems that certain low cost aircompanies are spraying too: http://ryanairdontcarecrew.blogspot.n1/2012 07 22 archive.html http://a i rcrap.org/busted-easy_jet-cheap-tickets-a i rl i ne-ca ught-sprayi ng-chemtra i Is-over-eu rope-2/332325/ I look forward to learning what's your opinion about this matter Reply 40. Steve Wilson says: July 29,2013 at 5:58 am Also see httppatentscope.wipo.int/searchienicletail.jsf?docId=US73564228 (US20120117003)Geoengineering Method Of Business Using Carbon Counterbalance Credits "A business method for providing an emissions trading approach value to products and services that provide active cooling of the Earth that provides a sustainable means for global cooling strategies to achieve commercial value,in order to drive development and real-world application of these approaches,comprising the steps of manufacturing a light-scattering nanoparticle(527), deploying the stratospheric nanoparticles for reducing solar radiation incident on the Earth(537),receiving Carbon Counterbalance Credits in exchange for the local,national,regional,or international benefits derived from said deployment(547),and derives income from selling said credits in order to create a sustainable and viable business(557).Systems,devices,and agents for deployment in accordance with the business method are also disclosed." Reply o admin says: July 30,2013 at 6:19 pm Thank you Steve.Added to patents page. o Becca Wilkin says: August 30,2013 at 5:22 pm Just read the whole thing Steve.It's a money making scheme which is ultimately designed to benefit banks and shareholders regardless of the effect on the health of the planet and those beings who live in it. 41.II J2theJ says: April 4,2013 at 9:26♦Z my stomach hurts thinking my husband works under this sky all day Reply. • pourquoi says: August 22,2013 at 7:57 am ET SUR NOS ENFANTS! ('aluminium se planque dans les bacs a sable,nous en respirons tous les jours,nous mangeons des nanoparticules sans connaitre leurs effets,sans aucun recul. Les sels vaporises massivement dans la ionosphere permettent egalement d'aspirer le H2O(vers les Etats-Unis). Vous n'avez pas remarque le changement dans votre potager?la terre est bcp—malleable,le sol est bien plus dur et sec.La raison?L'aluminium. Vous n'avez pas remarque le changement dans les arbres?on dirait l'automne déjà en aout,les feuilles s'assechent et tombent deja.Raison?Aluminium. Ce dimanche 25 ao0t,!I y a une marche globale contre la geo-ingenieurie:manifestez votre indignation! http://www.globalmarchagainstgeoingeenring ou qqchose comme Ga:tapez 4a sur google pour trouver la ville la plus proche de chez vous • admin says: August 23,2013 at 6:15 pm (google translation) AND OUR CHILDREN! aluminum hideout in sandboxes,we breathe every day,we eat nanoparticles without knowing their effects,no recoil. The sprayed heavily in the ionosphere salts are also used to draw the H2O(to the U.S.). You have not noticed the change in your garden?the earth is bcp—malleable,the soil is much more hard and dry.The reason?Aluminum. You have not noticed a change in the trees?it looks like autumn already in August,the leaves dry up and fall already.Reason?Aluminum. This Sunday,August 25,there is a global march against Geo-Engineering to:express your outrage! � . .., u, ., ,'i .'u -. 'a:or ggchose like this:type it on google to find the closest city to you 42. Michael says: March 26,2013 at 12:50 am I just found out about chem trails and I'm terrified to ask what you 2 are discussing Reply. 43. kalka says: August 20,2012 at 1:02 am Patent that might be relevant to chemtrails and HAARP. RFID environmental manipulation,Patent number 7,645,326, Inventor:Rodgers;James Neil(Langley,BC,CA) The patent involves the use of a reflective blanket of aluminum oxide-laced cloud cover to act as reflectors of radio frequency transmissions and the same increase the strength of such radio frequency signal.The aluminum oxide should only be introduced only when the environment is vacant of humans,preferably at nighttime,when radio wave propagation is at its highest rate of efficiency.The formula for aluminum oxide is AI(2)O(3).It can be toxic if inhaled in large quantities.It can cause coughing,mucous production and shortness of breath. For it to work properly,the transformer system of this invention(aluminum oxide blanket)involves the external antenna gathering an RFID electromagnetic signal interrogation message from a remote source,such as a cellular telephone transmission tower or perhaps HAARP antennas.This interrogation will be in the microwave frequency. httpjbatft.u s pto.gov/n eta cgiAp h-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=H ITO F F&p=1&u=/neta ht m I/sea rc h-boot.htm I&r=3&f=G&I=50&co 1=AND&d=ptxt&s 1=5003186&OS=5003186&RS=5003186 �R(Y o admin says: August 21,2012 at 10:15 pm Thanks,we'll look at it. • Chico Sky Watch says: August 22,2012 at 12:21 am Wow,what a great find!It even mentions HAARP specifically,and also notes on EXISTING side effects from the Hughes Welsbach patent.Simply amazing,thanks for sharing this! Leave a Reply Your email address will not be published.Required fields are marked* B I SI _7x ffl ® , Qj Name* Email* Website Post Comment ©2024 Geoengineering Watch Powered by WordPress LEGAL STATUS This site displays a prototype of a"Web 2.0"version of the daily Federal Register.It is not an official legal edition of the Federal Register,and does not replace the official print version or the official electronic version on GPO's govinfo.gov. 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LEGAL STATUS Coordinating Efforts To Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events A Presidential Document by the Executive Office of the President on 10/18/2016 PUBLISHED CONTENT-DOCUMENT DETAILS Agency:Executive Office of the President Document Citation:81 FR 71573 Document Number:201 6-2 529 0 Document Type:Presidential Document Presidential Document Executive Order Type: EO Citation:EO 13744 Pages:71573-71577(5 pages) Publication Date:10/18/2016 READER AIDS-EXECUTIVE ORDER DETAILS Executive order notes are compiled and maintained by the Office of the Federal Register editors. EO Citation:EO 13744 EO Notes:See:EO 12881,November 23,1993;EO 13642,May 9,2013 President:Barack Obama Signing Date:October 13,2016 PUBLISHED DOCUMENT:2016-25290(81 FR 71573) (❑print page 71573)Executive Order 13744(/executive-order/13744)of October 13,2016 Coordinating Efforts To Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America,and to prepare the Nation for space weather events,it is hereby ordered as follows: Section 1.Policy.Space weather events,in the form of solar flares,solar energetic particles, and geomagnetic disturbances,occur regularly,some with measurable effects on critical infrastructure systems and technologies,such as the Global Positioning System(GPS), satellite operations and communication,aviation,and the electrical power grid.Extreme space weather events—those that could significantly degrade critical infrastructure—could disable large portions of the electrical power grid,resulting in cascading failures that would affect key services such as water supply,healthcare,and transportation.Space weather has the potential to simultaneously affect and disrupt health and safety across entire continents.Successfully preparing for space weather events is an all-of-nation endeavor that requires partnerships across governments,emergency managers,academia,the media,the insurance industry,non-profits,and the private sector. It is the policy of the United States to prepare for space weather events to minimize the extent of economic loss and human hardship.The Federal Government must have(1)the capability to predict and detect a space weather event,(2)the plans and programs necessary to alert the public and private sectors to enable mitigating actions for an impending space weather event,(3)the protection and mitigation plans,protocols,and standards required to reduce risks to critical infrastructure prior to and during a credible threat,and(4)the ability to respond to and recover from the effects of space weather. Executive departments and agencies(agencies)must coordinate their efforts to prepare for the effects of space weather events. Sec.2.Objectives.This order defines agency roles and responsibilities and directs agencies to take specific actions to prepare the Nation for the hazardous effects of space weather. These activities are to be implemented in conjunction with those identified in the 2015 National Space Weather Action Plan(Action Plan)and any subsequent updates. Implementing this order and the Action Plan will require the Federal Government to work across agencies and to develop,as appropriate,enhanced and innovative partnerships with State,tribal,and local governments;academia;non-profits;the private sector;and international partners.These efforts will enhance national preparedness and speed the creation of a space-weather-ready Nation. Sec.3.Coordination.(a)The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP),in consultation with the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget(OMB),shall coordinate the development and implementation of Federal Government activities to prepare the Nation for space weather events,including the activities established in section 5 of this order and the recommendations of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC),established by Executive Order 12881 (/executive-order/12881)of November 23, 1993(Establishment of the National Science and Technology Council). (0 print page 71574) (b)To ensure accountability for and coordination of research,development,and implementation of activities identified in this order and in the Action Plan,the NSTC shall establish a Space Weather Operations,Research,and Mitigation Subcommittee (Subcommittee).The Subcommittee member agencies shall conduct activities to advance the implementation of this order,to achieve the goals identified in the 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and any subsequent updates,and to coordinate and monitor the implementation of the activities specified in the Action Plan and provide subsequent updates. Sec.4.Roles and Responsibilities.To the extent permitted by law,the agencies below shall adopt the following roles and responsibilities,which are key to ensuring enhanced space weather forecasting,situational awareness,space weather preparedness,and continuous Federal Government operations during and after space weather events. (a)The Secretary of Defense shall ensure the timely provision of operational space weather observations,analyses,forecasts,and other products to support the mission of the Department of Defense and coalition partners,including the provision of alerts and warnings for space weather phenomena that may affect weapons systems,military operations,or the defense of the United States. (b)The Secretary of the Interior shall support the research,development,deployment,and operation of capabilities that enhance the understanding of variations of the Earth's magnetic field associated with solar-terrestrial interactions. (c)The Secretary of Commerce shall: (i)provide timely and accurate operational space weather forecasts,watches, warnings,alerts,and real-time space weather monitoring for the government,civilian, and commercial sectors,exclusive of the responsibilities of the Secretary of Defense; and (ii)ensure the continuous improvement of operational space weather services,utilizing partnerships,as appropriate,with the research community,including academia and the private sector,and relevant agencies to develop,validate,test,and transition space weather observation platforms and models from research to operations and from operations to research. (d)The Secretary of Energy shall facilitate the protection and restoration of the reliability of the electrical power grid during a presidentially declared grid security emergency associated with a geomagnetic disturbance pursuant to 16 U.S.C.824o-1 (https://www.govinfo.gov/link/uscode/16/824o-1). (e)The Secretary of Homeland Security shall: (i)ensure the timely redistribution of space weather alerts and warnings that support national preparedness,continuity of government,and continuity of operations;and (ii)coordinate response and recovery from the effects of space weather events on critical infrastructure and the broader community. (f)The Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA)shall: (i)implement and support a national research program to understand the Sun and its interactions with Earth and the solar system to advance space weather modeling and prediction capabilities applicable to space weather forecasting; (ii)develop and operate space-weather-related research missions,instrument capabilities,and models;and (iii)support the transition of space weather models and technology from research to operations and from operations to research. (g)The Director of the National Science Foundation(NSF)shall support fundamental research linked to societal needs for space weather information through investments and partnerships,as appropriate.(D print page 71575) (h)The Secretary of State,in consultation with the heads of relevant agencies,shall carry out diplomatic and public diplomacy efforts to strengthen global capacity to respond to space weather events. (i)The Secretaries of Defense,the Interior,Commerce,Transportation,Energy,and Homeland Security,along with the Administrator of NASA and the Director of NSF,shall work together,consistent with their ongoing activities,to develop models,observation systems,technologies,and approaches that inform and enhance national preparedness for the effects of space weather events,including how space weather events may affect critical infrastructure and change the threat landscape with respect to other hazards. (j)The heads of all agencies that support National Essential Functions,defined by Presidential Policy Directive 40(PPD-40)of July 15,2016(National Continuity Policy),shall ensure that space weather events are adequately addressed in their all-hazards preparedness planning,including mitigation,response,and recovery,as directed by PPD-8 of March 30,2011 (National Preparedness). (k)NSTC member agencies shall coordinate through the NSTC to establish roles and responsibilities beyond those identified in section 4 of this order to enhance space weather preparedness,consistent with each agency's legal authority. Sec.5.Implementation.(a)Within 120 days of the date of this order,the Secretary of Energy,in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security,shall develop a plan to test and evaluate available devices that mitigate the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the electrical power grid through the development of a pilot program that deploys such devices, in situ,in the electrical power grid.After the development of the plan,the Secretary shall implement the plan in collaboration with industry.In taking action pursuant to this subsection,the Secretaries of Energy and Homeland Security shall consult with the Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. (b)Within 120 days of the date of this order,the heads of the sector-specific agencies that oversee the lifeline critical infrastructure functions as defined by the National Infrastructure Protection Plan of 2013—including communications,energy,transportation,and water and wastewater systems—as well as the Nuclear Reactors,Materials,and Waste Sector,shall assess their executive and statutory authority,and limits of that authority,to direct, suspend,or control critical infrastructure operations,functions,and services before,during, and after a space weather event.The heads of each sector-specific agency shall provide a summary of these assessments to the Subcommittee. (c)Within 90 days of receipt of the assessments ordered in section 5(b)of this order,the Subcommittee shall provide a report on the findings of these assessments with recommendations to the Director of OSTP,the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism,and the Director of OMB.The assessments may be used to inform the development and implementation of policy establishing authorities and responsibilities for agencies in response to a space weather event. (d)Within 60 days of the date of this order,the Secretaries of Defense and Commerce,the Administrator of NASA,and the Director of NSF,in collaboration with other agencies as appropriate,shall identify mechanisms for advancing space weather observations,models, and predictions,and for sustaining and transitioning appropriate capabilities from research to operations and operations to research,collaborating with industry and academia to the extent possible. (e)Within 120 days of the date of this order,the Secretaries of Defense and Commerce shall make historical data from the GPS constellation and other U.S.Government satellites publicly available,in accordance with Executive Order 13642(/executive-order/13642)of May 9,2013(Making Open and Machine Readable(D print page 71576)the New Default for Government Information),to enhance model validation and improvements in space weather forecasting and situational awareness. (f)Within 120 days of the date of this order,the Secretary of Homeland Security,through the Administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and in coordination with relevant agencies,shall lead the development of a coordinated Federal operating concept and associated checklist to coordinate Federal assets and activities to respond to notification of,and protect against,impending space weather events.Within 180 days of the publication of the operating concept and checklist,agencies shall develop operational plans documenting their procedures and responsibilities to prepare for,protect against,and mitigate the effects of impending space weather events,in support of the Federal operating concept and compatible with the National Preparedness System described in PPD-8. Sec.6.Stakeholder Engagement.The agencies identified in this order shall seek public- private and international collaborations to enhance observation networks,conduct research,develop prediction models and mitigation approaches,enhance community resilience and preparedness,and supply the services necessary to protect life and property and promote economic prosperity,as consistent with law. Sec.7.Definitions.As used in this order: (a)"Prepare"and"preparedness"have the same meaning they have in PPD-8.They refer to the actions taken to plan,organize,equip,train,and exercise to build and sustain the capabilities necessary to prevent,protect against,mitigate the effects of,respond to,and recover from those threats that pose the greatest risk to the security of the Nation.This includes the prediction and notification of space weather events. (b)"Space weather"means variations in the space environment between the Sun and Earth (and throughout the solar system)that can affect technologies in space and on Earth.The primary types of space weather events are solar flares,solar energetic particles,and geomagnetic disturbances. (c)"Solar flare"means a brief eruption of intense energy on or near the Sun's surface that is typically associated with sunspots. (d)"Solar energetic particles"means ions and electrons ejected from the Sun that are typically associated with solar eruptions. (e)"Geomagnetic disturbance"means a temporary disturbance of Earth's magnetic field resulting from solar activity. (f)"Critical infrastructure"has the meaning provided in section 1016(e)of the USA Patriot Act of 2001 (42 U.S.C.5195c(e)(https://www.govinfo.gov/link/uscode/42/5195c)),namely systems and assets,whether physical or virtual,so vital to the United States that the incapacity or destruction of such systems and assets would have a debilitating impact on security,national economic security,national public health or safety,or any combination of those matters. (g)"Sector-Specific Agency"means the agencies designated under PPD-21 of February 12, 2013(Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience),or any successor directive,to be responsible for providing institutional knowledge and specialized expertise as well as leading,facilitating,or supporting the security and resilience programs and associated activities of its designated critical infrastructure sector in the all-hazards environment. Sec.8.General Provisions.(a)Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect: (i)the authority granted by law to an agency,or the head thereof;or (ii)the functions of the Director of OMB relating to budgetary,administrative,or legislative proposals. (b)This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations. (C print page 71577) (c)This order is not intended to,and does not,create any right or benefit,substantive or procedural,enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States,its departments,agencies,or entities,its officers,employees,or agents,or any other person. (https://img.federalregister.gov/OB%231/0B io231_original_size.png) THE WHITE HOUSE,October 13,2016.Filed 10-17-16;8:45 am] [FR Doc.2016-25290(/d/2016-25290) Billing code 3295-F7-P PUBLISHED DOCUMENT:2016-25290(81 FR 71573) -7 ' WIKIPEDIA The Free Encyclopedia WIKIPEDIA Earth's magnetic field Earth's magnetic field,also known as the geomagnetic field,is the magnetic field that extends from Earth's interior out into space,where it interacts with the solar wind,a stream of charged particles emanating from the Sun.The magnetic field is generated by electric currents due to the motion of convection currents of a mixture of molten iron and nickel in Earth's outer core:these convection currents are caused by heat escaping from the core,a natural process called a geodynamo. A �� The magnitude of Earth's magnetic field at its surface ranges from 25 to 65µT(0.25 to 0.65 G).-U.As an approximation,it is represented by a field of R a magnetic dipole currently tilted at an angle of about 11°with respect to Earth's rotational axis,as if there were an enormous bar magnet placed at that angle through the center of Earth.The North geomagnetic pole actually represents the South pole of Earth's magnetic field,and conversely the lr South geomagnetic pole corresponds to the north pole of Earth's magnetic field(because opposite magnetic poles attract and the north end of a magnet,like a compass needle,points toward Earth's South magnetic field,Ellesmere Island,Nunavut,Canada). // � I, \� While the North and South magnetic poles are usually located near the geographic poles,they slowly and continuously move over geological time �� \\ scales,but sufficiently slowly for ordinary compasses to remain useful for navigation. However, at irregular intervals averaging several hundred Computer simulation of Earth's fielu thousand years, Earth's field reverses and the North and South Magnetic Poles respectively, abruptly switch places. These reversals of the a period of normal polarity between geomagnetic poles leave a record in rocks that are of value to paleomagnetists in calculating geomagnetic fields in the past.Such information in turn reversals.hl The lines represent is helpful in studying the motions of continents and ocean floors.The magnetosphere extends above the ionosphere that is defined by the extent of magnetic field lines,blue when the field Earth's magnetic field in space or geospace. It extends several tens of thousands of kilometres into space, protecting Earth from the charged points towards the center and yellow particles of the solar wind and cosmic rays that would otherwise strip away the upper atmosphere,including the ozone layer that protects Earth when away.The rotation axis of Earth is from harmful ultraviolet radiation, centered and vertical.The dense clusters of lines are within Earth's core.lzl Significance Earth's magnetic field deflects most of the solar wind,whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.L41 One stripping mechanism is for gas to be caught in bubbles of the magnetic field,which are ripped off by solar winds.[5]Calculations of the loss of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere of Mars,resulting from scavenging of ions by the solar wind,indicate that the dissipation of the magnetic field of Mars caused a near total loss of its atmosphere.E61[7] The study of the past magnetic field of the Earth is known as paleomagnetism.tf The polarity of the Earth's magnetic field is recorded in igneous rocks,and reversals of the field are thus detectable as"stripes"centered on mid-ocean ridges where the sea floor is spreading,while the stability of the geomagnetic poles between reversals has allowed paleomagnetism to track the past motion of continents.Reversals also provide the basis for magnetostratigraphy,a way of dating rocks and sediments.M The field also magnetizes the crust,and magnetic anomalies can be used to search for deposits of metal ores.tlol Humans have used compasses for direction finding since the 11th century A.D.and for navigation since the 12th century.illi Although the magnetic declination does shift with time,this wandering is slow enough that a simple compass can remain useful for navigation.Using magnetoreception,various other organisms,ranging from some types of bacteria to pigeons, use the Earth's magnetic field for orientation and navigation.t121 Characteristics At any location,the Earth's magnetic field can be represented by a three-dimensional vector.A typical procedure for measuring its direction is to use a compass to determine the direction of magnetic North.Its angle relative to true North is the declination(D)or variation.Facing magnetic North,the angle the field makes with the horizontal is the inclination (1) or magnetic dip. The intensity (F) of the field is proportional to the force it exerts on a magnet. Another common representation is in X(North), Y(East) and Z(Down) coordinates.�i37 Geographic North Geographic No.1h Magoon.:North �� Ge raphe Fest )r,lin.0 0 ..• Geographic ', Geographic Env 111 Uu n U.nn Common coordinate systems used for representing the Earth's magnetic field Intensity The intensity of the field is often measured in gauss(G),but is generally reported in microteslas(pT),with 1 G=100µT.A nanotesla is also referred to as a gamma(y).The Earth's field ranges between approximately 22 and 67µT(0.22 and 0.67 G).L141 By comparison,a strong refrigerator magnet has a field of about 10,000µT(ioo G).[151 A map of intensity contours is called an isodynamic chart.As the World Magnetic Model shows,the intensity tends to decrease from the poles to the equator.A minimum intensity occurs in the South Atlantic Anomaly over South America while there are maxima over northern Canada,Siberia,and the coast of Antarctica south of Australia.[161 The intensity of the magnetic field is subject to change over time.A 2021 paleomagnetic study from the University of Liverpool contributed to a growing body of evidence that the Earth's magnetic field cycles with intensity every 200 million years.The lead author stated that"Our findings,when considered alongside the existing datasets,support the existence of an approximately 200-million-year-long cycle in the strength of the Earth's magnetic field related to deep Earth processes."[171 Inclination The inclination is given by an angle that can assume values between—90°(up)to 90°(down).In the northern hemisphere,the field points downwards.It is straight down at the North Magnetic Pole and rotates upwards as the latitude decreases until it is horizontal (0°) at the magnetic equator. It continues to rotate upwards until it is straight up at the South Magnetic Pole.Inclination can be measured with a dip circle. An isoclinic chart(map of inclination contours)for the Earth's magnetic field is shown below. Declination Declination is positive for an eastward deviation of the field relative to true north.It can be estimated by comparing the magnetic north—south heading on a compass with the direction of a celestial pole.Maps typically include information on the declination as an angle or a small diagram showing the relationship between magnetic north and true north.Information on declination for a region can be represented by a chart with isogonic lines(contour lines with each line representing a fixed declination). Geographical variation Components of the Earth's magnetic field at the surface from the World Magnetic Model for 2020/161 �._ of i. ,A M ry a - v ` go- A W " . coq Intensity Inclination Declination Dipolar approximation Near the surface of the Earth,its magnetic field can be closely approximated by the field of a magnetic dipole positioned at the center of the Earth and tilted at an angle of about 11°with respect to the rotational axis of the Earth.[i81 The dipole is roughly equivalent to a powerful bar magnet,with B A its south pole pointing towards the geomagnetic North Pole.L191 This may seem surprising,but the north pole of a magnet is so defined because,if C, A, allowed to rotate freely,it points roughly northward(in the geographic sense).Since the north pole of a magnet attracts the south poles of other B, magnets and repels the north poles,it must be attracted to the south pole of Earth's magnet.The dipolar field accounts for 8o-9o%of the field in most locations. [131 A, C2 •Relationship between Earth's poles.Al and A2 are the geographic poles;BI and B2 are the geomagnetic poles;Cl (south)and C2(north)are the magnetic poles. Magnetic poles Historically,the north and south poles of a magnet were first defined by the Earth's magnetic field,not vice versa,since one of the first uses for a % $ $ a magnet was as a compass needle.A magnet's North pole is defined as the pole that is attracted by the Earth's North Magnetic Pole when the zo magnet is suspended so it can turn freely. Since opposite poles attract,the North Magnetic Pole of the Earth is really the south pole of its , 020 magnetic field(the place where the field is directed downward into the Earth).i2O1[211[221[2s1 "° 201$ " ° The positions of the magnetic poles can be defined in at least two ways:locally or globally.[241 The local definition is the point where the magnetic ,r� 2010: field is vertical.[251 This can be determined by measuring the inclination.The inclination of the Earth's field is 9o°(downwards)at the North a rbml4C 20°5• Observed Magnetic Pole and—90°(upwards)at the South Magnetic Pole.The two poles wander independently of each other and are not directly opposite each other on the Movements of upto40 kilometres(25mi)peryear have been observed for the North Magnetic Pole.Over the last 180 200°x ' globe. g years,the North Magnetic Pole has been migrating northwestward,from Cape Adelaide in the Boothia Peninsula in 1831 to 60o kilometres (370 mi)from Resolute Bay in 2001.[251 The magnetic equator is the line where the inclination is zero(the magnetic field is horizontal). 600 0,9 The global definition of the Earth's field is based on a mathematical model.If a line is drawn through the center of the Earth,parallel to the .;. moment of the best-fitting magnetic dipole,the two positions where it intersects the Earth's surface are called the North and South geomagnetic poles.If the Earth's magnetic field were perfectly dipolar,the geomagnetic poles and magnetic dip poles would coincide and compasses would R "'"'° point towards them. However,the Earth's field has a significant non-dipolar contribution,so the poles do not coincide and compasses do not o3� generally point at either. 8 a The movement of Earth's North Magnetic Magnetosphere Pole across the Canadian arctic Earth's magnetic field,predominantly dipolar at its surface,is distorted further out by the solar wind.This is a stream of charged particles leaving the Sun's corona and accelerating to a speed of 20o to woo kilometres per second.They carry with them a magnetic field,the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF).[271 The solar wind exerts a pressure,and if it could reach Earth's atmosphere it would erode it.However,it is kept away by the pressure of the Earth's magnetic field.The magnetopause, the area where the pressures balance,is the boundary of the magnetosphere.Despite its name,the magnetosphere is asymmetric,with the sunward side being about 10 Earth radii out but the other side stretching out in a magnetotail that extends beyond 20o Earth radii.[281 Sunward of the magnetopause is the bow shock,the area where the solar wind slows abruptly.[271 Inside the magnetosphere is the plasmasphere,a donut-shaped region containing low-energy charged particles,or plasma.This region begins at a height of 6o km,extends up to 3 or 4 Earth radii,and includes the ionosphere.This region rotates with the Earth.[281 There are also two concentric tire-shaped regions,called the Van Allen radiation belts,with high-energy ions(energies from 0.1 to 10 MeV).The inner belt is 1-2 Earth radii out while the outer belt is at 4-7 Earth radii.The plasmasphere and Van Allen belts have partial overlap,with the extent of overlap varying greatly with solar activity.[291 As well as deflecting the solar wind,the Earth's magnetic field deflects cosmic rays,high-energy charged particles that are mostly from outside the Solar System.Many cosmic rays are kept out of the Solar System by the Sun's magnetosphere,or heliosphere.[3°]By contrast,astronauts on the Moon risk exposure to radiation.Anyone who had been on the Moon's surface during a particularly violent solar eruption in 2005 would have received a lethal dose.[277 Some of the charged particles do get into the magnetosphere.These spiral around field lines,bouncing back and forth between the poles several times per second.In addition,positive ions slowly drift westward and negative ions drift eastward,giving rise to a ring current.This current reduces the magnetic field at the Earth's surface.[277 Particles that penetrate the ionosphere and collide with the atoms there give rise to the lights of the aurorae while also emitting X-rays.[28] The varying conditions in the magnetosphere, known as space weather, are largely driven by solar activity. If the solar wind is weak, the O O O magnetosphere expands;while if it is strong,it compresses the magnetosphere and more of it gets in.Periods of particularly intense activity,called geomagnetic storms,can occur when a coronal mass ejection erupts above the Sun and sends a shock wave through the Solar System.Such a wave An artist's rendering of the structure of can take just two days to reach the Earth.Geomagnetic storms can cause a lot of disruption;the"Halloween"storm of 2003 damaged more than a a magnetosphere.1)Bow shock. third of NASA's satellites.The largest documented storm,the Carrington Event,occurred in 1859. It induced currents strong enough to disrupt 2)Magnetosheath.3)Magnetopause. telegraph lines,and aurorae were reported as far south as Hawaii.[271[311 4)Magnetosphere.5)Northern tail lobe.6)Southern tail lobe. 7)Plasmasphere. Time dependence Short-term variations The geomagnetic field changes on time scales from milliseconds to millions of years. Shorter time scales mostly arise from currents in the a ionosphere(ionospheric dynamo region)and magnetosphere,and some changes can be traced to geomagnetic storms or daily variations in currents. Changes over time scales of ayear or more mostlyreflect changes in the Earth's interior,particularly the iron-rich core.[13] 1}jllttt�n�� Frequently,the Earth's magnetosphere is hit by solar flares causing geomagnetic storms,provoking displays of aurorae.The short-term instability of • _ the magnetic field is measured with the K-index.[3z] -, — Data from THEMIS show that the magnetic field,which interacts with the solar wind,is reduced when the magnetic orientation is aligned between Sun and Earth–opposite to the previous hypothesis.During forthcoming solar storms,this could result in blackouts and disruptions in artificial " satellites.[33] _.. Background:a set of traces from magnetic observatories showing a Secular variation magnetic storm in 2000. Changes in Earth's magnetic field on a time scale of a year or more are referred to as secular variation. Over hundreds of years, magnetic Globe:map showing locations of declination is observed to vary over tens of degrees.[13]The animation shows how global declinations have changed over the last few centuries.[34] observatories and contour lines giving horizontal magnetic intensity inµT. The direction and intensity of the dipole change over time.Over the last two centuries the dipole strength has been decreasing at a rate of about 6.3%per century.LX31 At this rate of decrease,the field would be negligible in about 1600 years.[35]However,this strength is about average for the t 590 last 7 thousand years,and the current rate of change is not unusual.[36] o<a;nmror,(xg.ees enS) A prominent feature in the non-dipolar part of the secular variation is a westward drift at a rate of about 0.2°per year.[35]This drift is not the same n ./ j e everywhere and has varied over time.The globally averaged drift has been westward since about 1400 AD but eastward between about 1000 AD and 0 '_'° 1400 AD.[37] ° •.�. 4 Changes thatpredate magnetic observatories are recorded in archaeological and geological materials.Such changes are referred to as aleoma netic g g� g g� P 9 secular variation or paleosecular variation (PSV). The records typically include long periods of small change with occasional large changes " • reflecting geomagnetic excursions and reversals.[381 "` ""°m Estimated declination contours by year, A 1995 study of lava flows on Steens Mountain,Oregon appeared to suggest the magnetic field once shifted at a rate of up to 6°per day at some time 1590 to 1990(click to see variation) in Earth's history,a surprising result.[s9]However,in 2014 one of the original authors published a new study which found the results were actually due to the continuous thermal demagnitization of the lava,not to a shift in the magnetic field.[401 36 ..._coax.. In July 2020 scientists report that analysis of simulations and a recent observational field model show that maximum rates of directional change of a „. Earth's magnetic field reached�10°peryear–almost 100 times faster than current changes and 10 times faster thanpreviously thought.[41][42] e r' B . Magnetic field reversals Although generally,Earth's field is approximately dipolar,with an axis that is nearly aligned with the rotational axis,occasionally the North and South geomagnetic poles trade places. Evidence for these geomagnetic reversals can be found in basalts, sediment cores taken from the ocean floors,and seafloor magnetic anomalies. Reversals occur nearly randomly in time,with intervals between reversals ranging from less than 0.1 Strength of the axial dipole component of Earth's magnetic field from 1600 to million years to as much as 5o million years. The most recent geomagnetic reversal, called the Brunhes–Matuyama reversal, occurred about 2020 780,000 years ago.[26][44]A related phenomenon,a geomagnetic excursion,takes the dipole axis across the equator and then back to the original polarity-.[45][46]The Laschamp event is an example of an excursion,occurring during the last ice age(41,000 years ago). The past magnetic field is recorded mostly by strongly magnetic minerals,particularly iron oxides such as magnetite,that can carry a permanent magnetic moment.This remanent magnetization,or remanence,can be acquired in more than one way.In lava flows,the direction of the field is"frozen"in small minerals as they cool,giving rise to a thermoremanent magnetization.In sediments,the orientation of magnetic particles acquires a slight bias towards the magnetic field as they are deposited on an ocean floor or lake bottom.This is called detrital remanent magnetization.[81 Thermoremanent magnetization is the main source of the magnetic anomalies around mid-ocean ridges.As the seafloor spreads,magma wells up from the mantle,cools to form new basaltic crust on both sides of the ridge,and is carried away from it by seafloor spreading.As it cools,it records the direction of the Earth's field.When the Earth's field reverses,new basalt records the reversed direction.The result is a series of stripes that are symmetric about the ridge.A ship towing a magnetometer on the surface of the ocean can detect these stripes and infer the age of the ocean floor below.This provides information on the rate at which seafloor has spread in the past.[8] Radiometric dating of lava flows has been used to establish a geomagnetic polarity time scale,part of which is shown in the image.This forms the basis of magnetostratigraphy,a geophysical correlation technique that can be used to date both sedimentary and volcanic sequences as well as the seafloor magnetic anomalies.[8] Earliest appearance Paleomagnetic studies of Paleoarchean lava in Australia and conglomerate in South Africa have concluded that the magnetic field has been present since Age citron Subchron at least about 3,45o million years ago[471[481[491 In 2024 researchers published evidence from Greenland for the existence of the magnetic field as early as (Mal-— 3,700 million years ago.[5°1 r Future — Ole t.o- ow laramum Starting in the late 1800s and throughout the lgoos and later, the overall geomagnetic field has become weaker; the present strong deterioration „ Cobb Mountain corresponds to a 10-15%decline and has accelerated since 2000;geomagnetic intensity has declined almost continuously from a maximum 35%above the modern value,from circa year 1 AD.The rate of decrease and the current strength are within the normal range of variation,as shown by the record of E, past magnetic fields recorded in rocks. ,3 oiawa� is— The nature of Earth's magnetic field is one of heteroscedastic (seemingly random) fluctuation. An instantaneous measurement of it, or several °"i°" measurements of it across the span of decades or centuries,are not sufficient to extrapolate an overall trend in the field strength.It has gone up and down in the past for unknown reasons.Also,noting the local intensity of the dipole field(or its fluctuation)is insufficient to characterize Earth's magnetic field as a whole,as it is not strictly a dipole field.The dipole component of Earth's field can diminish even while the total magnetic field remains the same or increases. 30— A ;Keene Mammoth The Earth's magnetic north pole is drifting from northern Canada towards Siberia with a presently accelerating rate-10 kilometres(6.2 mi)per year at the beginning of the rgoos,up to 4o kilometres(25 mi)per year in 20o3,[i6]and since then has only accelerated.[511[521 4.0— Physical origin `n`h l7 �,:.9noiiau Earth's core and the geodynamo ,„Vera The Earth's magnetic field is believed to be generated by electric currents in the conductive iron alloys of its core,created by convection currents due to heat escaping from the core. Geomagnetic polarity during the late Cenozoic Era.Dark areas The Earth and most of the planets in the Solar System,as well as the Sun and other stars,all generate magnetic fields through the motion of electrically denote periods where the conducting fluids.[541 The Earth's field originates in its core. This is a region of iron alloys extending to about 340o km (the radius of the Earth is polarity matches today's 6370 km).It is divided into a solid inner core,with a radius of 1220 kin,and a liquid outer core.[551 The motion of the liquid in the outer core is driven by polarity,light areas denote heat flow from the inner core, which is about 6,000 K (5,730 °C; 10,340 °F), to the core-mantle boundary, which is about 3,80o K (3,530 °C; periods where that polarity is 6,380 °F).[561 The heat is generated by potential energy released by heavier materials sinking toward the core (planetary differentiation, the iron reversed. catastrophe)as well as decay of radioactive elements in the interior.The pattern of flow is organized by the rotation of the Earth and the presence of the solid inner core.[571 The mechanism by which the Earth generates a magnetic field is known as a geodynamo.Ls4]The magnetic field is generated by a feedback loop: current loops generate magnetic fields(Ampere's circuital law);a changing magnetic field generates an electric field(Faraday's law);and the electric and magnetic fields exert a force on the charges that are flowing in currents (the Lorentz force).E581 These effects can be combined in a partial differential equation for the magnetic field called the magnetic induction equation, -.. _nV2B+Ox (uxB),Ot where u is the velocity of the fluid;B is the magnetic B-field;and q= 1/6µis the magnetic diffusivity,which is inversely proportional to the product of the electrical conductivity n and the permeability .E591 The term 3B/ht is the time derivative of the field;V2 is the Laplace operator and V is the curl operator. �. The first term on the right hand side of the induction equation is a diffusion term. In a stationary fluid, the magnetic field declines and any Variations in virtual axial dipole concentrations of field spread out.If the Earth's dynamo shut off,the dipole part would disappear in a few tens of thousands of years.[591 moment since the last reversal In a perfect conductor(o=co),there would be no diffusion.By Lenz's law,any change in the magnetic field would be immediately opposed by currents, so the flux through a given volume of fluid could not change.As the fluid moved, the magnetic field would go with it. The theorem describing this effect is called the frozen-in-field theorem.Even in a fluid with a finite conductivity,new field is generated by stretching field lines as 'i f the fluid moves in ways that deform it.This process could go on generating new field indefinitely,were it not that as the magnetic field increases in +6„ strength,it resists fluid motion.[591 The motion of the fluid is sustained by convection,motion driven by buoyancy.The temperature increases towards the center of the Earth,and the higher temperature of the fluid lower down makes it buoyant.This buoyancy is enhanced by chemical separation:As the core cools,some of the molten iron solidifies and is plated to the inner core.In the process,lighter elements are left behind in the fluid,making it lighter.This is called compositional convection.A Coriolis effect,caused by the overall planetary rotation,tends to organize the flow into rolls aligned along the north- south polar axis.[571[591 A dynamo can amplify a magnetic field,but it needs a"seed"field to get it started.[591 For the Earth,this could have been an external magnetic field. A schematic illustrating the relationship Early in its history the Sun went through a T-Tauri phase in which the solar wind would have had a magnetic field orders of magnitude larger than between motion of conducting fluid, the present solar wind.[6o1 However,much of the field may have been screened out by the Earth's mantle.An alternative source is currents in the organized into rolls by the Coriolis core-mantle boundarybymay provide chemical reactions or variations in thermal or electric conductivity.Such effects still a small bias that force,and the magnetic field the [6t] motion generates.[s3i are part of the boundary conditions for the geodynamo. The average magnetic field in the Earth's outer core was calculated to be 25 gauss,5o times stronger than the field at the surface.[621 Numerical models Simulating the geodynamo by computer requires numerically solving a set of nonlinear partial differential equations for the magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)of the Earth's interior. Simulation of the MHD equations is performed on a 3D grid of points and the fineness of the grid,which in part determines the realism of the solutions,is limited mainly by computer power. For decades,theorists were confined to creating kinematic dynamo computer models in which the fluid motion is chosen in advance and the effect on the magnetic field calculated.Kinematic dynamo theory was mainly a matter of trying different flow geometries and testing whether such geometries could sustain a dynamo.[63] The first self-consistent dynamo models,ones that determine both the fluid motions and the magnetic field,were developed by two groups in 1995,one in Japan[64]and one in the United States.[11[6-1 The latter received attention because it successfully reproduced some of the characteristics of the Earth's field,including geomagnetic reversals.[63] Effect of ocean tides The oceans contribute to Earth's magnetic field.Seawater is an electrical conductor, and therefore interacts with the magnetic field.As the tides cycle around the ocean basins,the ocean water essentially tries to pull the geomagnetic field lines along.Because the salty water is only slightly conductive,the interaction is relatively weak:the strongest component is from the regular lunar tide that happens about twice per day(M2).Other contributions come from ocean swell,eddies,and even tsunamis.[66] The strength of the interaction depends also on the temperature of the ocean water.The entire heat stored in the ocean can Amme now be inferred from observations of the Earth's magnetic field. [67][66] ,_.. COSCr:rn lia llei5Fe,s,She real Currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere 41, Electric currents induced in the ionosphere generate magnetic fields (ionospheric dynamo region). Such a field is always generated near where the atmosphere is closest to the Sun,causing daily alterations that can deflect surface magnetic fields by as much as 0.Typical daily variations of field strength are about 25 nT(one part in 2000),with variations over a few seconds i►c. of typically around 1 nT(one part in 50,000).[68] 0:31 Sea level magnetic fields observed by satellites(NASA i Measurement and analysis Detection The Earth's magnetic field strength was measured by Carl Friedrich Gauss in 183 2I-6-91 and has been repeatedly measured since then,showing a relative decay of about io%over the last 15o years.[?°]The Magsat satellite and later satellites have used 3-axis vector magnetometers to probe the 3-D structure of the Earth's magnetic field.The later Orsted satellite allowed a comparison indicating a dynamic geodynamo in action that appears to be giving rise to an alternate pole under the Atlantic Ocean west of South Africa.[7r] Governments sometimes operate units that specialize in measurement of the Earth's magnetic field.These are geomagnetic observatories,typically part of a national Geological survey, for example,the British Geological Survey's Eskdalemuir Observatory.Such observatories can measure and forecast magnetic conditions such as magnetic storms that sometimes affect communications,electric power,and other human activities. The International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network,with over loo interlinked geomagnetic observatories around the world,has been recording the Earth's magnetic field since 1991. The military determines local geomagnetic field characteristics,in order to detect anomalies in the natural background that might be caused by a significant metallic object such as a submerged submarine.Typically,these magnetic anomaly detectors are flown in aircraft like the UK's Nimrod or towed as an instrument or an array of instruments from surface ships. Commercially,geophysical prospecting companies also use magnetic detectors to identify naturally occurring anomalies from ore bodies,such as the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly. Crustal magnetic anomalies Magnetometers detect minute deviations in the Earth's magnetic field caused by iron artifacts, kilns, some types of stone structures, and even ditches and middens in archaeological geophysics. Using magnetic instruments adapted from airborne magnetic anomaly detectors developed during World War II to detect submarines,[71]the magnetic variations across the ocean floor have been mapped.Basalt—the iron-rich,volcanic ' g, rock making up the ocean floor contains a strongly magnetic mineral(magnetite)and can locally distort compass readings.The distortion was V%4:4101.° ,, recognized by Icelandic mariners as early as the late 18th century.L751 More important, because the presence of magnetite gives the basalt �� ,;;I' measurable magnetic properties,these magnetic variations have provided another means to study the deep ocean floor.When newly formed rock cools,such magnetic materials record the Earth's magnetic field.[75] A model of short-wavelength features of Earth's magnetic field,attributed to lithospheric anomaliesEi. Statistical models Each measurement of the magnetic field is at a particular place and time. If an accurate estimate of the field at some other place and time is needed,the measurements must be converted to a model and the model used to make predictions. Spherical harmonics The most common way of analyzing the global variations in the Earth's magnetic field is to fit the measurements to a set of spherical harmonics. + _\+ This was first done by Carl Friedrich Gauss.[76]Spherical harmonics are functions that oscillate over the surface of a sphere.They are the product of ;_;; ;_ 1-j-- two -two functions,one that depends on latitude and one on longitude.The function of longitude is zero along zero or more great circles passing through °'-'" -J+ the North and South Poles;the number of such nodal lines is the absolute value of the order m.The function of latitude is zero along zero or more latitude circles;this plus the order is equal to the degree 1. Each harmonic is equivalent to a particular arrangement of magnetic charges at the _„ _ _ , center of the Earth.A monopole is an isolated magnetic charge,which has never been observed.A dipole is equivalent to two opposing charges , +v+ - brought close together and a quadrupole to two dipoles brought together.A quadrupole field is shown in the lower figure on the right.Egi Spherical harmonics can represent any scalar field(function of position)that satisfies certain properties.A magnetic field is a vector field,but if it is ;_� +0+ expressed in Cartesian components X Y, Z,each component is the derivative of the same scalar function called the magnetic potential.Analyses of "'-' + the Earth's magnetic field use a modified version of the usual spherical harmonics that differ by a multiplicative factor.A least-squares fit to the Schematic representation of spherical magnetic field measurements gives the Earth's field as the sum of spherical harmonics,each multiplied by the best-fitting Gauss coefficient g„Z or harmonics on a sphere and their nodal h rut[13] lines.P1 m is equal to 0 along m great circles passing through the poles,and The lowest-degree Gauss coefficient,goo,gives the contribution of an isolated magnetic charge,so it is zero.The next three coefficients-g1°,g1] alongfunction ct-rc hanges circles ofsign equaleach lafitude.Qtimeit The and h11-determine the direction and magnitude of the dipole contribution.The best fitting dipole is tilted at an angle of about 10°with respect to crosses one of these lines. the rotational axis,as described earlier.I0131 Radial dependence Spherical harmonic analysis can be used to distinguish internal from external sources if measurements are available at more than one height(for example,ground observatories and satellites).In that case,each term with coefficient gmt or hrit can be split into two terms:one that decreases with radius as 1/r +1 and one that increases with radius as rt.The increasing terms fit the external sources(currents in the ionosphere and magnetosphere).However,averaged over a few years the external contributions average to zero.[�3] The remaining terms predict that the potential of a dipole source(f=1)drops off as 17/2.The magnetic field,being a derivative of the potential, drops off as 1/r3.Quadrupole terms drop off as 1/r4,and higher order terms drop off increasingly rapidly with the radius.The radius of the outer core is about half of the radius of the Earth.If the field at the core-mantle boundary is fit to spherical harmonics,the dipole part is smaller by a factor of about 8 at the surface,the quadrupole part by a factor of 16,and so on.Thus,only the components with large wavelengths can be noticeable at the surface.From a variety of arguments,it is usually assumed that only terms up to degree 14 or less have their origin in the core.These have wavelengths of about 2,000 km(1,200 mi)or less.Smaller features are attributed to crustal anomalies.[131 Global models ` J The International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy maintains a standard global field model called the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). It is updated every five years. The 11th-generation model, IGRFu, was developed using data from satellites (Orsted, CHAMP and SAC-C)and a world network of geomagnetic observatories.[771 The spherical harmonic expansion was truncated at degree 10,with 120 Example of a quadrupole field.This can coefficients,until 2000.Subsequent models are truncated at degree 13(195 coefficients).[781 also be constructed by moving two dipoles together. Another global field model, called the World Magnetic Model, is produced jointly by the United States National Centers for Environmental Information(formerly the National Geophysical Data Center)and the British Geological Survey.This model truncates at degree 12(168 coefficients) with an approximate spatial resolution of 3,00o kilometers.It is the model used by the United States Department of Defense,the Ministry of Defence(United Kingdom),the United States Federal Aviation Administration(FAA),the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO),and the International Hydrographic Organization as well as in many civilian navigation systems.[79] The above models only take into account the"main field"at the core-mantle boundary.Although generally good enough for navigation,higher-accuracy use cases require smaller-scale magnetic anomalies and other variations to be considered.Some examples are(see geomag.us ref for more):[8o1 • The"comprehensive modeling"(CM)approach by the Goddard Space Flight Center(NASA and GSFC)and the Danish Space Research Institute.CM attempts to reconcile data with greatly varying temporal and spatial resolution from ground and satellite sources.The latest version as of 2022 is CM5 of 2016.It provides separate components for main field plus lithosphere(crustal),M2 tidal, and primary/induced magnetosphere/ionosphere variations.1811 • The US National Centers for Environmental Information developed the Enhanced Magnetic Model(EMM),which extends to degree and order 790 and resolves magnetic anomalies down to a wavelength of 56 kilometers.It was compiled from satellite,marine,aeromagnetic and ground magnetic surveys.As of 2018,the latest version,EMM2017,includes data from The European Space Agency's Swarm satellite mission.1821 For historical data about the main field,the IGRF may be used back to year 1900.[781 A specialized GUFM1 model estimates back to year 1590 using ship's logs.[$37 Paleomagnetic research has produced models dating back to 10,000 BCE.[841 Biomagnetism Animals,including birds and turtles,can detect the Earth's magnetic field,and use the field to navigate during migration.[8I1 Some researchers have found that cows and wild deer tend to align their bodies north-south while relaxing,but not when the animals are under high-voltage power lines,suggesting that magnetism is responsible.[861[871 Other researchers reported in 2011 that they could not replicate those findings using different Google Earth images.[881 Very weak electromagnetic fields disrupt the magnetic compass used by European robins and other songbirds,which use the Earth's magnetic field to navigate.Neither power lines nor cellphone signals are to blame for the electromagnetic field effect on the birds;[891 instead,the culprits have frequencies between 2 kHz and 5 MHz.These include AM radio signals and ordinary electronic equipment that might be found in businesses or private homes.[9O1 See also • Polar wind Earth sciences portal • Geomagnetic jerk • Geomagnetic latitude Geophysics portal • Magnetic field of Mars Physics portal • Magnetotellurics • Meteorite • Operation Argus • Rings of Saturn • South Atlantic Anomaly References 1.Glatzmaier,Gary A.;Roberts,Paul H.(1995)."A three-dimensional self-consistent computer 5."Solar wind ripping chunks off Mars"(https://web.archive.org/web/20160304072916/http://a simulation of a geomagnetic field reversal".Nature.377(6546):203-209. rchive.cosmosmagazine.com/news/solar-wind-ripping-chunks mars/).Cosmos Online.25 Bibcode:1995Natur.377..203G(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.377..203G). 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Sources • Campbell,Wallace H.(2003).Introduction to geomagnetic fields(2nd ed.).New York:Cambridge University Press.ISBN 978-0-521-52953-2. • Merrill,Ronald T.(2010).Our Magnetic Earth:The Science of Geomagnetism.University of Chicago Press.ISBN 978-0-226-52050-6. • Merrill,Ronald T.;McElhinny,Michael W.;McFadden,Phillip L.(1996).The magnetic field of the earth:paleomagnetism,the core,and the deep mantle.Academic Press.ISBN 978-0-12-491246-5. • Tauxe,Lisa(1998).Paleomagnetic Principles and Practice.Kluwer.ISBN 978-0-7923-5258-7. Further reading • Gramling,Carolyn(1 February 2019)."Earth's core may have hardened just in time to save its magnetic field"(https://www.sciencenews.org/article/earth-core-solidified-just-time-save-magnetic-fi eld).Science News.Retrieved 3 February 2019. • Herndon,J.M.(1996-01-23)."Substructure of the inner core of the Earth"(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC40105).PNAS.93(2):646-648.Bibcode:1996PNAS...93..646H(https:// ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1996PNAS...93..646H).doi:10.1073/pnas.93.2.646(https://doi.org/10.1073%2Fpnas.93.2.646).PMC 40105(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC40105). PMID 11607625(https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11607625). • Hollenbach,D.F.;Herndon,J.M.(2001-09-25)."Deep-Earth reactor:Nuclear fission,helium,and the geomagnetic field"(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC58687).PNAS.98(20): 11085-90.Bibcode:2001PNAS...9811085H(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001PNAS...9811085H).doi:10.1073/pnas.201393998(https://doi.org/10.1073%2Fpnas.201393998).PMC 58687(ht tps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC58687).PMID 11562483(https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11562483). • Love,Jeffrey J.(2008)."Magnetic monitoring of Earth and space"(https://geomag.usgs.gov/downloads/publications/pt_love0208.pdf)(PDF).Physics Today.61(2):31-37. Bibcode:2008PhT....61b..31H(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PhT....61b..31H).doi:10.1063/1.2883907(https://doi.org/10.1063%2F1.2883907). • "Temperature of the Earth's core"(https://web.archive.org/web/20100908191727/http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen99/gen99256.htm).NEWTON Ask a Scientist.1999.Archived from the original(http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/gen99/gen99256.htm)on 2010-09-08.Retrieved 2006-01-21. • Towle,J.N.(1984)."The Anomalous Geomagnetic Variation Field and Geoelectric Structure Associated with the Mesa Butte Fault System,Arizona".Geological Society of America Bulletin.9(2): 221-225.Bibcode:1984GSAB...95..221T(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984GSAB...95..221T).doi:10.1130/0016-7606(1984)95<221:TAGVFA>2.0.00;2(https://doi.org/10.1130%2F0016-760 6%281984%2995%3C221%3ATAGVFA%3E2.0.CO%3 B2). • Turner,Gillian(2011).North Pole,South Pole:The epic quest to solve the great mystery of Earth's magnetism.New York,NY:The Experiment.ISBN 978-1-61519-031-7. • Wait,James R.(1954)."On the relation between telluric currents and the earth's magnetic field".Geophysics.19(2):281-289.Bibcode:1954Geop...19..281W(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1 954Geop...19..281W).doi:10.1190/1.1437994(https://doi.org/10.1190%2F1.1437994(.S2CID 51844483(https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpuslD:51844483). • Walt,Martin(1994).Introduction to Geomagnetically Trapped Radiation.Cambridge University Press.ISBN 978-0-521-61611-9. External links • Geomagnetism&Paleomagnetism background material(http://www.agu.org/sections/geomag/background.html)Archived(https://web.archive.org/web/20130303134304/http://www.agu.org/s ections/geomag/background.html)2013-03-03 at the Wayback Machine.American Geophysical Union Geomagnetism and Paleomagnetism Section. • National Geomagnetism Program(https://geomag.usgs.gov/).United States Geological Survey,March 8,2011. • BGS Geomagnetism(http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/).Information on monitoring and modeling the geomagnetic field.British Geological Survey,August 2005. • William J.Broad,Will Compasses Point South?(https://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/13/science/13magn.html?ex=1247457600&en=e8f37e14d213ba16&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland).The New York Times,July 13,2004. • John Roach,Why Does Earth's Magnetic Field Flip?(https://web.archive.org/web/20041001005926/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/09/0927 040927_field_lip.html).National Geographic,September 27,2004. • Magnetic Storm(https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/).PBS NOVA,2003.(ed.about pole reversals) • When North Goes South(htttps://web.archive.org/web/20051208010400/http://www.psc.edu/science/Glatzmaier/glatzmaier.html).Projects in Scientific Computing,1996. • The Great Magnet,the Earth(http://www.phy6.org/earthmag/demagint.htm),History of the discovery of Earth's magnetic field by David P.Stern. • Exploration of the Earth's Magnetosphere(http://www-spolgsfc.nasa.gov/Education/wmap.html)Archived(https://web.archive.org/web/20130214033726/http://www-spof.gsfc.nasa.gov/Educat ion/wmap.html)2013-02-14 at the Wayback Machine,Educational web site by David P.Stern and Mauricio Peredo • International Geomagnetic Reference Field 2011(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html) • Global evolution/anomaly of the Earth's magnetic field(http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Global%20Mag%20Anomaly.gif)Archived(https://web.archive.org/web/20160624044136/http://www.vu kcevic.talktalk.net/Global%20Mag%20Anomaly.gif)2016-06-24 at the Wayback Machine Sweeps are in 10°steps at 10 years intervals.Based on data from:The Institute of Geophysics,ETH Zurich (http://www.ethz.ch/index_EN)Archived(https://web.archive.org/web/20071031134152/http://www.ethz.ch/index_EN)2007-10-31 at the Wayback Machine • Patterns in Earth's magnetic field that evolve on the order of 1,000 years(http://sciencenewsdigest.com/story/read/132/Earths-magnetic field-simpler-than-we-thought)Archived(https://web.arch ive.org/web/20180720165832/http://sciencenewsdigest.com/story/read/132/Earths-magnetic field-simpler-than-we-thought)2018-07-20 at the Wayback Machine.July 19,2017 • Chree,Charles(1911)."Magnetism,Terrestrial" (https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/1911_Encyclop%C3%A6dia_Britannica/Magnetism,_Terrestrial).In Chisholm,Hugh(ed.).Encyclopa=dio Britannica. Vol.17(11th ed.).Cambridge University Press.pp.353-385.(with dozens of tables and several diagrams) Retrieved from"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Earth%27s_magnetic_field&oldid=1246707983" Maps l/gueasysllmthcconJ6bda7de4-0,8-4553-b06tl-69cecaxdaSsacsltacreash- NdecCarMalegists%r3A+Add+This+Tc+Your+Cofiae+To+Turn+On+Fal+Burning+ModeSdatfo - - -054159014&thumt ampaign-id-42491z10Scampaigni-iNx-� tlRusBa4ck NNSILCOG810Eun ICScOloloEa arRygl66rklNgrAPP.55Ox-2gout2NFR-1 2gotiif2,Pads�iCSc4Gol oEenbrRygHMrkYNgZJ6Ak656CVFFOrHxFR-iCx- zeourzsybl/JkswMLDouymlu0ielcsoDeol oEanmayeHtemrnszJ6Ax6s6cvFFomxFR-lcx-zyoptzsybDJwswMLDsuw> Cardiologists:Add This To Your Coffee To Turn On Fat Burning Mode I Sponsored Dicks by Taboola(https'.//popup.tabeola.cam/eN/template=colorbox&utm source=reach-express&urn-metllum=referral&utm content>humbnallsrmax1'Desktcl Learn More Maps esyslimtrkcom/6btlaGde4-oa8-4558-606da2da3eassitecreach- xpress&stag O4160&ttlEaCardiologistOo+erCFKTurn0 !NBurning'Mode&IOa asktop34249121 te24=4056159014&bum[ diokOt0 ftJOAKV0000-IOzgcu20!SUw&dS.GotoEanhrR99elH,0NKZJ6Ak56OKFFOrH,R-IC- 20.2vD11,MILD0u.IlakiGICScOolo. yg.r.9.16.666d,R-1 -2god29v 15wIAL01.1 w) Maps rior .somlpre Ss-woter2Ko-IachIKn-KKocedce0G120t!tourrecteboolatmmK=r0t9 CSCOGotoEanhrRygHMrkYNgZJ6Ak858CVFFDHrFR- iCstsEoalcawNmAxYLeATLMSFMpblcGiCSCOGoIoEanhrRygliMMYNc2.16.Ak058CVFFOrHxFR-CwrGEoSbararNmA,LeATCW9M) You Won't Want To Take Off The Waterproof And Orthopedic Boot All Winter Long ISponsored Links by Taboola(haps//popup taboo,ram/en/gtemplate=colorhox&utm source=reach-express&utm medium=referral&utm content=thumbnailsrr-3x1 oesktrl Shop Now Maps'.Irorthoture.wmlpmducts/men%215-waterproof-taskIan-erlhopedlesbees-1)uttrx5ource=tabeola&utrt_medstm=reterrd&tblci=GICSo00e1 KEanhrRygN,FINVNgZJ6Ak850C0 FF0rHCFR- ICywGEo3bauvNmAxYIeATCw9FMWSICIGICSCOGo1oEanhrRygH1HrSYNgZJ8Ak056CVFFOMWSN-10,GEonausNmA,LeATOw9FM) Irttosrrenlargpmsmm/viewncLEP),asULpEwrMGHMrdVNhSaISOMV/paHualtsM7RhAtFonuarm1321340,4844&site=PmsteteUsweb reach. oxpress Mtp!r3A%2F%2FWn.taboole.coreNPFtibtro%2Fstalis°h2FNumbnailsta,01.52d2972bMa0ca84ae6e89M133s.tpg_Enlarged+Prostate+Has+NaNing+ta+Domatrar ge.Nust+Stop+Doing* DU&s00vH eg00MPxArsCrnn&tblret=r.nh- tD rove!exeee.�veooIo.00mi�xiamdo�raomm, _ ro-+ramrmmss _ iciv�.roao1 _ ser-sxom .�dnieio,.00.c,.ni0 e.o r by Tuboolut o rrda= rRo .ora aJ rouoay..o dots-rao bo oRo+seo.arreeosom mww reroao ecru oomam oxorro eon a.a.o.o aee.ureoo0 Is Putin preparing for WW3? Russia begins evacuation of FORTY MILLION PEOPLE in huge drill VLADIMIR Putin has sparked fears of WW3 after ordering the evacuation of 40 million Russians. r r Please begin notification processes of all ECM I central structures, as well as regional i and munici•al authorities. BREAKIN CLOSE Would you like to receive news The huge fo Robert Jenrick sets out plana to Klock foreign aid to colt ntries refusing deportations over notifications from Daily Express? disegreemel (hitpsJhvww express co ok/news/politics/1953792/robert-jenrick-deportation-foreign-aid) No Following a breakdown in communication between the USA and Russia,the Kremlin organised the huge emergency practice drill-either as a show of force or something more sinister. DON'T MISS POWERED BY mantis IIII_ ,''';'1114):II,,,,,,,,ip it Horror as grandmother and baby Russia sends chilling message to EU shame as bloc sends E2Obillion to Moment Russia u swept away after'flood wave'hits world dashing hopes that Ukraine Putin while Russia slaughters hell on Ukrainian holiday home war is close to ending inn��snr=��likreme res �ssu©d (https://www..express.co.uk/news/world(Mt O"3®litakyxpress.co.uk/news/wod d/1953052/russia- Flooding-grandmother-baby-swept- Ukraine-lavrov-victory-plan- The drill will prepare Russian citizens far'large natural and man-made disasters",according to the country's Ministery for Civil Defence,Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disaster. g „ ,..,.�, k h-,.,,r•'"'"" s#'" ,..o,�. !t„, ;' " ,r •it x., - - - "` R'A'T�TrE •yFy r�.`' A tNnk, , ,ri 0 1 .. , I._ .. .,,. , . ro . ...., •, : ,1.. . ,„... IN..4•., .. 'A Iludimir Puns has sparked concern with a mass evacuation drill RELATED ARTICLES . \ , Q, jilliii 1 'Keep Russia Russian,'Putin moves to OUTI AW'alien values DEXIT,EU is`BIGGER THREAT than Russia',warns Danish in laws' ME (/news/world/699600Nladimir-Putin-moves-to-outlaw-alien- (/news/world/704101/dexit-denmark-eu-russia-putin-Marie- yalues-and-laws) &unap) The ministry revealed 40 million civilians,200,000 emergency rescuers and 50,000 units of equipment are involved in the war game,which ran from October 4 to October 7. BREAKING NEWS CLOSE)( Would you like to receive news Robed Jenrick sets out plans to block foreign aid to countries refusing deportations notifications from Daily Express? (hifpsJlwww express co uk/news/politics/185'3799/rnhert-jenrick-deportation-foreign-aid) .rr. Emergency responders taking part in this weak's d 11 A spokesman said in a statement:"The main goal of the drill is to practice organisation of management during civil defence events and emergency and fire management,to check preparedness of management bodies and forces of civil defence on all levels to respond to natural and man-made disasters and to take civil defence measures." Sponsored irnros:/rwwr,zrne�neeenoomple..Pom/mdnotaUr000aazoownAeaa�omr=cicsoocemFennrrzvoaMrnvNgz,reane6eevFwm.Fa-ioe.zrenp- rr,,v SLipA cwsFMswm wme�t�ite�eeh-er,rrr�ampelgrUtiaevsreevoe_stsdcics�ocotrsr�r nvnnrrtrnvxgz,iankessevprom,oe-ioo.zvokp-n,,wL IArCr 5Frn) armory too w ax Moe Top Doctor:3 Foods to Melt Years Off Your Body olpEanh(Free Now) (M1ttpsJ/Llhacpllagancpmplex.wm/cIM013w000002CbxAPAS?sudltll=GlGSceerRygHMrkYNgZJ6Ak668CVFFOMxFR-ICox21'okp- imWJL�ppn CweFMBurm oonrent 55 reach-sspress_oampelgn_Id_4048]83]O5 IXr5 055 0CotoEenhreygnMrsYlyxzJsnks sCVFFCr55 e-ICox2Yokp-IrSALi JPATCv:9FM) by Tnboole J��W+/raou�u.iaeo�ia.wm,r�,viHr�rua�uuomon�u25o��.�reN.n—w�wea�Ni�i�nei��i=rorn�aia�iir�w�ia�r=ui�irib�ai�i�ia Mm nniaa 6.k�n) They explained the scheme would be divided into three stages:awareness,planning and evacuation. MAPPED:The world's nuclear powers and the UNOFFICIAL nuclear threats(n-w w.r.71:• n -.r-w-.pons-bomb- powers-wh ich-cn u ntries-states-map-north-ko res-ru ss ia) -- -- 11] �I�[ E t y 'I dd here ■k M�l� :►® ` ! GET THE Y\� LATEST WORLD NEWS The statement said:"The drill will rehearse radiation,chemical and biological protection of the personnel and population during emergencies at crucial and potentially dangerous facilities. "Fire safety,civil defence and human protection at social institutions and public buildings are also planned to be checked. Response units will deploy radiation,chemical and biological monitoring centres and sanitation pasts at the emergency areas, while laboratory control networks are going to be put on standby." DON'T MISS o,EaEne .� mantis gu Horror as grandmother and baby Russia sends chilling message to EU shame as bloc sends E20billion to Moment Russia u wept away after flood wave'hits world dashing hopes that Ukraine Putin while Russia slaughters he','�„.:r.�aholiday home war is close to ending ono 55 In Ukraine e.. ssudi (https://wwwexpress.co.uk/news/world(M 0Utditel press.co.uk/news/wotldt1953052/russie- Flooding-grandmother-baby-swept- ukraine-lavrov-victory-plan- away? zelensky ? n[_sou rce=m a ntis_rec&int_med i u mevinb&mwrcoarpargism®&i rif kaiellie)n=web&int campaign=more like this) EXPRESShtwsweu EXPRESS k ggyy..adnE5nx (hllpswwww.express.co.uk/newelworld/19530521nassia-ul (haps://www.express.co.uk) ,Mips://www.express.co.uk)�_r� int sruirre=mamis rr:Riot medium=wabAnt r:amnaion=n Et: NIµµijIIIIIp ' 1'IMM { /• f maBREAKING NEWS111.r CLOSE GE Would you like to receive news mr anehe eehem Robert Jenrick sets alit plans to hlnck foreign aid to cnuntriea refusing deportations notifications from Daily Express? (hitpsJlwww express co irk/news/pnlitirall95'3799/rnhert-jenrick-deportation-foreign-aid) • • Relations between Russia and the USA have broken dooun due to disagreements over Syria Last week,the US condemned Russia's actions in Syria,which it said were leading to death and destruction. A spokesman for the US State Department said:"Extremist groups will continue to exploit the vacuums that are there in Syria to expand their operations,which could include attacks against Russian interests,perhaps even Russian cities.Russia will continue to send troops home in body bags,and will continue to lose resources,perhaps even aircraft." Relationships between the two superstates has now broken down completely,and this latest show of power by Mr Putin is likely to be welcomed by his American counterparts. Russia(llatestlrusslatSyriad Iataest/sy,uul Vladimir Putin(fatestivladimir-gybe) (htOsOcos N.wm/18/147142param 1=8.9346358postacl«iGScOGoi oEanhrftyg HMM1YNgZJ6Ak656CVFFOMxFR- IDRs __ TTkIiNATCw9FMdcampaign=426541398creativeo4611871.38publisber-reacA s sour Nsro. = uxi= eliCS.Gol oEanhreyy,10'NyZJfiAk656CVFFOrnxFR- s _ TIO NATCw9FMpIbCIGCO ICSGobF8tboi� oO,OrRygHMrOOlgrl6Aka S6CVFFOrWFR-01,1soi_v iMTTkIiN4TCw9FMJ Seniors Can Now Fly Business Class For the Price Of Economy Online Shopping Tools (Maps://ms N.00m/16/147142parsml=8934535&posnaok=GiCSnaGoloEanlanygHMrkYNgZJ6AkB56CVFFOrnxFR- iDRs so__MTTMINATC.P.campaign=420541398caatNe=1g11871.3apubllaher-reach s sou - sca = uxi y e8ro=G lciCScOGoloEa.rli,otlMZJ6AkIi rl,Ng56CVFFOrHxFR- IDRs __MTIOORTCw9FMptblcOCS.Gab �aEEarOrRygHMrkVN9ZJ6Ak'a S6CVFFOrt4FR-iDRslsoi_v 1M 111OIATCw9FM) by Tabooh O�ups::popap.shoals.anmlenrllemgelFrrdorboevia�soawaeacl.a.prcsssaiai aieaiaiir-nremalaai�conieni=uiambneilst.t oevkiop t.t aionl sat c uc.i Sppnsoretl Links(nitxs.I,uopap.�abodsvumrarv'tlempalezaoma:aaii2svaroexecl.e.yrassawm�aeaiani=rarrrralaaini conwntanambnailst.t.oeslwp 1.t xienl sat 5 uc.� BREAKING NEWS CLOSE)( Would you like to receive news Robert Jenrirk sets out plans to block foreign aid to countries refusing deportations notifications from Daily Express? (httpsJhvww express on uk/news/politirstl S5S792/rnhert-jenrick-deportation-foreign-aid) JOURNAL ARTICLE Feeding the world: impacts of elevated [CO2] on nutrient content of greenhouse grown fruit crops and options for future yield gains ,,,, Horticulture Research,Volume 10,Issue 4,April 2023,uhadO26,https://doi.org/10.1093/hr/uhadO26 Published: 21 February 2023 Article history v Abstract Several long-term studies have provided strong support demonstrating that growing crops under elevated[CO2]can increase photosynthesis and result in an increase in yield,flavour and nutritional content(including but not limited to Vitamins C,E and pro-vitamin A).In the case of tomato,increases in yield by as much as 80%are observed when plants are cultivated at moo ppm[CO2],which is consistent with current commercial greenhouse production methods in the tomato fruit industry.These results provide a clear demonstration of the potential for elevating[CO2]for improving yield and quality in greenhouse crops.The major focus of this review is to bring together 5o years of observations evaluating the impact of elevated[CO2]on fruit yield and fruit nutritional quality.In the final section,we consider the need to engineer improvements to photosynthesis and nitrogen assimilation to allow plants to take greater advantage of elevated CO2 growth conditions. Issue Section: Review Article Introduction Elevated[CO2](e[CO2])has been shown to significantly improved light saturated photosynthetic carbon assimilation rates(ASat)by increasing the efficiency of Rubisco CO2 assimilation(carboxylation)over the alternate RuBP oxygenation(02 assimilation),which results in enhanced growth and yield[i,2](Figure 1). Small Large elevation in elevation in Ico,l [t0,1 Ambient[CO,i 420 ppm Rubisco rate As 100A surpasses 550 Since Rubisco already limiting In CRC. ppm A,.is limited by the saturated,further leading to reduced rate of RuBP regeneration. increase in yield not carbon assimilation Rubisco no longer rate necessarily seen and plant biomass limiting 1 11fIncreased carbon Increased assimailtion and Increased fertilisation biomass fertilisation IIs there art optimal [CO,l to increase yield without compromising quality? Figure 1 Schematic representation of elevated[CO2]on carbon assimilation.Created with BioRender.com PDF Helps',�W Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. Fruit Effects of elevated[COO on fruit yield and quality -n.to ussm<..a..:n van yr".ra tremeata le[<0,1•43low.-120001.) 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Orem r;(O'M i,n .,.rre 4tor4,50 our on 5e 0005.x.r;r e'(OJ ofauoty <reaus'yield moat,o'a net oUunn,a Er Coir drerr 4 r. 11111 -u]8'. ,:, 000_a111rin.,, O,i .ror. -11311,.9911x0 Mrea>IIw.3a.Upe.or,nr r..o,r,co.'...4.5.4,,...^...,, (neo! 1v%rcr.:,_....,.,. <aeu<.n wOr}11-1a110.<rem rn wnetle wV•v,..a l::: i....a........ ,:r.,.. ,, rrnr, owe,co r,.es f.freknMfew.w:,,,,dar .n,rr ' ,.• n ..n•'r,,v dump,.:,r.:rIPP v r:eraDohres..e.r<eenus m r coo.. and ..decrease.s,..N.t. O.Or,wromns •I.6:4..r,.,,..:n..,.. rollY[O}r,rarmenrr ra60aar3-WO worn) •}to a5' -. .y4<au.k.00u.Mxrore)breiCO,1:,....oom. -Ur . .133%increase wet.fUelin.l:11werx f0}% IIE e,16sD reponeem(r00'Y•9wpam� iou,'errna C. m011.. roD <•.01.edreas.1 e.Dee �[a-/aroma<arn�lwnn(eters,uar:M.l.naooll.n'reaus tlepv.uwn:n<re F OIIw Irmrr[.[Med la9q,69q,9Sg9om7. :w spec**pre of CO,f.tLr^'9oaara[on be 00[0..9000 as.0.10,.0c.,.n<r:,r:.,•rr:0Of()O.>ASO an f w! dua';ryWve.09.0.tot.GreM:et CO,frnmsoaan op9earslo 9•.09[,nr.;,r.r:oor..1o,„„ry r ..„:mr<m ,..>nr::r«0.'r .,. ,., 0).,0.0.0 :ronan ate ro-s%w.tar0a•.rrw o ...Oran,.0:a.,.,o moo.rn, I coal 1 Iva Lr,9: xd Now waarourxn rlx wnw Oder'ro tion,05)00 and M5. aa..red,orood.aa'a.wrnx yew and O0aney Figure 2 Effects of elevated[CO2]on yield and quality of fruiting crops.Created with BioRendercom The majority of research evaluating the impact of e[CO2]on fruit crop production has been carried out in controlled environment conditions (chambers),polytunnels and commercial greenhouses where crops are grown in e[CO2],and focus almost exclusively on soft fruit such as strawberry,tomato and cucumber.Early work in the 1980's suggested that e[CO2]increased the average yield of all plants tested by approximately 30/0,with optional[CO2]concentration for growth and yield in the range of 700 to 90o ppm with concentration in excess of loon ppm having a negative impact on plant growth and yield[3-6].In the case of vegetable cops,much of the work has been carried out in controlled environments, in which elevated[CO2](800-90o ppm)increased lettuce,carrot,and parsley yield by 18%,19%,and 17%,respectively in greenhouse grown crops. However,the yields of leek,chinese cabbage and celery were not significantly affected by increases in growth[CO2]concentration[7].A meta- analysis of 107 selected articles showed that e[CO2]results in an increase in vegetable number(yield)by on average 32%and vegetable mass by 11°/u [8].Furthermore,a meta-analysis of 57 articles consisting of 1015 observations found that e[CO2]has both positive and negative impacts on vegetable quality.For example,whilst concentrations of fructose(+14.2°/0),glucose(+13.2%),total soluble sugar(+17.5%),total antioxidant capacity(+59.0%),total phenols(+8.9%),total flavonoids(45.5%),vitamin C(+9.5%),and calcium(+8.2%)increased in the edible part of vegetables,protein(-9.5%,)nitrate(-18.o%),magnesium(-9.2%),iron(-16.0%),and zinc(-9.4%)decreased[9].Moreover,a meta-analysis of legumes found a reduction in zinc and iron(and in non-legumes a reduction in protein)when plants were grown under e[CO2](see Myers et al[10]). In 2018,Zhu et al[11]confirmed these results,and moreover demonstrated that rice grown under e[CO2]showed consistent declines in the quantities of vitamins Bi,B2,B5,and B9 and,an increase in vitamin E.Finally,studies have shown that grains(wheat,rice,and barley),legumes, and maize-have a 4-1o%reduction in iron concentrations of when grown under e[CO2](-55o ppm)[12].These results shown that e[CO2]can positively and negatively impact on legumes,grain and vegetables on a crop-by-crop basis and simultaneously alter quality attributes in the same harvestable material. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the current available data of the impact of elevated[CO2]on fruiting crops production in commercial growing systems.This paper examines these studies and the long-term implications of e[CO2]on the yield and quality of fruit required to feed a growing population.In the last section,we discuss the potential for designing crops for these new growing environments and allowing them to take full advantage of the introduced CO2,potentially increasing crop yield,reducing costs for commercial producers,and improving quality of the final product providing high nutritional value to consumers. Impact of elevated [CO2] on yield and quality of GREENHOSUE grown crops Impact of elevated [CO2]on solanaceous crops Commercially,tomato crops are grown in greenhouses with e[CO2],in some cases as high as 2000 ppm.The effects of e[CO2]of fruit yield and quality has been extensively studied(Figure 2).Under e[CO2],tomato fruit yield increases ranged from 7%—125%with[CO2]ranged from 45o ppm —1200 ppm compared with plants grown under a[CO2].An increase in the quantity of non-reducing sugars(glucose and fructose)has been reported [13-17]and fully ripe tomatoes grown in an e[CO2]were found to be preferable for consumption in sensory panels[13].As liking sweetness has been shown to be a universal trait[18],it is possible that this increase in sugar is responsible for preference of the carbon enriched tomato fruits.An increase in vitamin C was also found between most studies[13,15,16,19],potentially improving the health benefit gains from consumption of carbon-enriched grown tomatoes(Table 1).Vitamin C is an important dietary requirement and at high concentrations it has been used as a treatment for cancer,arteriosclerosis,and cardiovascular diseases[2o-22].These results suggest that increasing environmental[CO2]could contribute to an increase in Vitamin C improving their nutritional value for the consumer.However,growth at e[CO2]does not have the same impact on all species,as another studies in barley reported a significant decrease in Vitamin C content[23]highlighting the species—species response differences to e[CO2]and suggesting that high carbon growth environments may not always provide the best outcome for the consumer PDF even though increases in yield maybe the producers primary concern(see Fenech et al.[24]and references therein). Hep([ Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. level of CO2 enrichment impacts fruit quality and careful consideration is needed to ensure an appropriate balance between levels of e[CO2]and final yield.Lycopene is an important phytonutrient,is sold commercially as a dietary supplement,and has been reported to possess anti-cancer properties and can improve cardiovascular health[26,27]. I-carotene is the precursor for Vitamin A,also known as retinol.Vitamin A is an essential micronutrient playing important roles in growth and development,vision[281 and the immune system[29].More than a third of all pre-school children and a significant number of pregnant women around the world are affected by Vitamin A deficiency,increasing the risk of night blindness and miscarriage[3o,31].Importantly,most people suffering from a deficiency in Vitamin A show no clinical symptoms resulting in a phenomenon termed"Hidden Hunger"[32].Production of crops with increased Vitamin A is therefore an important target for improving the diet and health of these at-risk groups;enhanced uptake of carbon may be a useful approach to achieve this.Increases in the Vitamin A precursor(3-carotene has been observed in tomato fruit grown under e[CO2]of 800- 900 ppm,in addition to a 28°7°increase in vitamin C at ripe stage and an-8%increase in total soluble solids(Table 1).Zhang et al.[13],suggested that under these growth conditions,improved vitamin A and C and increased carotenoid content may be attainable. Carotenoids are also the precursors of several flavour and aroma compounds.I-carotene is cleaved by carotenoid cleavage dioxygenases CCDM and CCD4[26,33-35],to form the aromatic apocarotenoid 0-ionone,which is important to tomato fruit flavour.Furthermore,lycopene,shown to increase under e[CO2]is cleaved by CCD1 to form several important flavour and aroma compounds including 6,10-dimethyl-3,5,9-undecatrien-2- one(pseudoionone[34];,6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one(MHO[36];and geranial[37].MHO has been shown to be an important contributor to tomato fruit flavour[38,39]and has also been shown to accumulate in tomato fruit with higher lycopene levels[40].It is therefore apparent that growth in e[CO2]can increase a range of key flavour and nutraceutical precursor compounds present in tomato fruit;this phenomenon deserves further study, the optimal levels of[CO2]are currently not clear and more work is needed to better understand the relationship between CO2,assimilation carotenoid content,flavour and overall quality(Table 2). Similar results have also been found in pepper crops,with yield increase of 12.9%—370.2%reported when grown at e[C07]of between 450 ppm— l000 ppm(Table 2)with most other studies reporting yield increases in the range of 12.9%—47.4%in the absence of other parameters[41-47]. However,it should be noted that growth at-800 ppm e[CO2]was found to reduce sweet pepper total amino acid content by up to 29%,including reductions in the sweet tasting amino acids alanine and glycine,which could be detrimental to the perceived fruit flavour[42].Yield was also found to vary with different irrigation programmes[41,48],nitrogen sources[48],substrate salinity[42,44]and pruning regimens[46].Given that previous work in tomato has shown an increase in potential phytonutrients in fruit grown at 55o ppm and a decrease in those grown at 700 ppm, further research is needed to better identify the specific quantity of CO2 fertilisation necessary for maximally improved yield in solanaceous crops, especially when considering that CO2 uplift is often accompanied by additional treatments,such as increased nutrient and nitrogen fertilisation (Figure 2). Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of tomato Table 1 Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of tomato CO2Treatment AdditionalTreatment(s) Fruit Yield Fruit Quality Ref 510 ppm N/A 9.9%increase in fruit yield. N/A [45] 590 ppm root drying Fruit dry weight not significantly affected by[CO2] N/A [15 across all irrigation treatments. 5] 375 ppm- Ozone treatment 24%increase in fruit yield.31%decrease in fruit yield N/A [15 675 ppm 80 nmol mol when exposed to ozone.Ozone and CO2 treated fruit 6] yields were not significantly different to plants grown in ambient conditions. 550 ppm N/A 54%increase in fruit yield at 550 ppm and 125% 1.4%-11.4%decrease in total soluble solids,27.3%- [19] 700 ppm increase in fruit yield at 700 ppm. 31.8%decrease in total acids and 16.1%-29.0% increase in vitamin C. +2°C increase in 18.4%-21.4%increase in fruit yield due to increased 10%increase in total sugars,44%increase in vitamin C, [25] temperature [CO2]. 32%increase in lycopene at e[CO2]in absence of other treatments.e[CO2]rescues reduction in quality from increased temperature. 650 ppm N/A 17%increase in fruit yield at 650 ppm and 48% N/A [3] 1000 ppm increase in fruit yield at 1000 ppm. 700 ppm Doubled N fertilisation N/A 13%-25%decrease in fruit lycopene content across [15 harvests with e[CO2].9%increase in fruit lycopene 7] content with increased N fertilisation. UV-B exposure up to 38%increase in fruit yield in absence of additional UV- Up to-22%increase in soluble sugars,-24%increase in [15] 1.744 kJ m-2 B treatment,up to 46%increase in fruit yield with UV-B organic acids,-40 increase in vitamin C and-47% treatment. increase in lycopene content of fruits grown under e[CO2]and UV-B treatment. PDF 700 ppm N/A -30%increase in individual fruit weight. -18%increase in vitamin C.-Up to 20%reduction in [:6] H el rsly, 900 ppm major acids(citric,malic,oxalic).-45%increase in Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. 800 ppm 0-0.5 g N kg-1 soil.Soil Across all treatments,-3.3%-28%increase in total -17.9%-11.9%increase in total fruit sugars and-18.9% [15 water content 25%-35% fruit yield. -12.7%increase in total fruit acids across all treatments. 9] Saliniti treatments at 5-7 13%increase in yield in carbon-enriched atmosphere 7%increase in total soluble solids.No significant change [14] dS m and 31%reduction in marketable fruit yield in in citric acid content.Organoleptic qualities of tomatoes increased salinity. grown under increased salinity and CO2 found preferable in sensory trials. 100 or 200 mg N kg 1 soil, 8°/o increase in fresh fruit yield with increased[CO2]. No significant difference in total sugars,organic acid or [16 70%irrigation of control fruit firmness for fruits grown in e[CO2]. 0] and root drying (Continued) Continued Table 1 Continued CO2Treatment Additional Fruit Yield Fruit Quality Ref Treatment(s) 800 ppm- N/A N/A -28%increase in vitamin C at ripe stage,-8%increase in total soluble [13] 900 ppm solids and no difference in total acids.Marked preference in sensory trials for fruits grown under enriched[CO2]. 900 ppm N/A 30%increase in marketable fruit yield. N/A [16 1] 100 limo!s-1 m-2 12%-15%increase in yield under supp N/A [16 supp lighting lighting,7%increase in yield in absence of 2] additional treatment. N/A 22%increase in total fruit yield for plants N/A [16 grown in e[CO2]. 3] 1000 ppm N/A 30%increase in total fresh fruit yield per N/A [16 plant. 4] 43%increase in total fruit yield. No significant effect on fruit quality parameters. [16 5] 74.3%-83.6%increase in tomato fresh 16.1%-20.9%increase in total sugars.20.0%-24.7%decrease in [17] weight per plant. vitamin C.4.79%-6.8%decrease in total acids. 15.6%increase in fruit yield across 8 N/A [16 different cultivars. 6] 1200 ppm Salinity up to4.58x >40%loss in dry fruit yield at highest Increased salinity and[CO2]combined increases total sugar and acid [16 control salinity treatment completely offset by content by up to-30%. 7] increased[CO2]. In chili pepper,yield increases of 43.80/0—142%were reported for e[CO2](in the range of 50o ppm—1140 ppm).These yield increases were in part attributed to an increase in the size of fruits[49].However,in controlled environments a 4°C increase in temperature decreased yield,even at e[CO2](75o ppm)[5o,51],indicating that carbon enrichment is not sufficient to rescue yield where glasshouse facilities or growth tunnels experience periods of elevated temperature in an extreme climate change scenario.Carbon-enriched growth was found to increase the capsaicinoid content of fruits,resulting in an increase in Scoville Heat Units(SHU)[49,52].This approach therefore has potential for producing hotter varieties of chili,a growing and competitive market.However,at the same time Vitamin C concentration decrease by up to 15.84%[53],reducing potential health benefits gained from growing chilli plants under e[CO2].(Table 2). These reports suggest that the effects of growing crops in e[CO2]can have both a positive influence on yield and nutritional quality,however, growth at[CO2]levels above what is optimum can negatively impact some quality traits. Impact of elevated [CO2] on rosaceous crops Rosaceous crop research in this area has focused primarily on cultivated strawberry with a small number of studies on raspberry and Nashi pear (Table 3).This is likely due to the relatively smaller size and rapid growth of strawberry compared to other commercially important rosaceous fruit species,such as tree fruits,like apple and cherry,and woody stemmed shrub fruits,like raspberry and blackberry.This makes strawberry a convenient plant to study as a rosaceous model.Furthermore,greater production of strawberry fruits would not only increase profits for growers PDF but also decrease costs for consumers,increasing the availability of healthier options.Better access to such products through economic growth is strongly correlated to reduced micronutrient malnutrition or"hidden hunger"[54]. Heirs Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. were upregulated in strawberry plants grown in an enriched-carbon atmosphere,with 14 of these being photosynthetic genes[6o],suggesting that plants respond to these atmospheric increases by increasing their ability to assimilate the excess carbon. Additional annual yield increases could be achieved by a two-week reduction in time to fruiting for plants grown in an enriched-carbon atmosphere [58,61]increasing the field season and the period of productive(fruit)growth.Several fruit quality traits are also improved by growth at e[CO2]; increases in reducing sugars,and therefore sweetness index,were reported[62,63]alongside reductions in organic acids[62].These increases in sugar-acid ratio is highly favourable for a more pleasant perception of strawberry flavour by the consumer[18]and an increase in key volatile organic compounds,including furaneol,linalool and major esters,was also reported,further enhancing the"strawberry"aroma[62].Growth in a carbon-enriched atmosphere therefore strongly enhances strawberry flavour and increases vitamin C(an important nutritional compound)by up to 13.3%alongside other antioxidant compounds[64,65].Growth in carbon-enriched atmospheres therefore simultaneously improves yield, flavour and health benefits of strawberry fruits,creating enormous potential for strategies involving enhanced photosynthesis of strawberry plants,including genetic manipulation.The greatest reported increase in fresh fruit yield where obtained when[CO2]was kept between 60o ppm— moo ppm[58],linking greater carbon assimilation to increased fresh fruit yield in strawberry and demonstrating an optimal degree of CO2 fertilisation for strawberries(Table 3). Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of other Solanaceous crops Table 2 Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of other Solanaceous crops Crop CO2Treatment Additional Treatment(s) Fruit Yield Fruit Quality Ref Sweet 350 ppm N/A 12.9%increase in fruit yield 350 ppm and 47.4%increase in fruit N/A [45] Pepper 450 ppm yield 450 ppm. 400 ppm 20 mmol L-1 NaCI,foliar 18.9%to 26.6%increase in yield at 400 and 800 ppm Little significant effect of increased [42] 800 ppm calcium treatment respectively.Foliar calcium treatment had no impact on yield. [CO2]on fruit inorganic nutrients or e[CO2]rescued total yield loss from high salinity. colour. 700 ppm High/low irrigation and N Fruit yield fore[CO2]increased with irrigation with no significant N/A [48] treatments difference in fruit yield at lowest irrigation. 700 ppm- N/A 18%-22%increase in total fruit yield. N/A [46] 750 ppm 800 ppm Nitrogen source and 8%and 22%increase in marketable fruit yield under salinity N/A [43, saline treatment(8 and stress and unstressed respectively.23%and 29%maximum 44,1 25 mM NaCI) increase in daily fruit harvest yield fort different nitrogen 68] sources at low salinity. 900 ppm N/A 7%increase in early yielding fruits,no change in total fruit yield. N/A [162 367 ppm- Range of irrigation Yield increased with irrigation and carbon dioxide with a N/A [41] 1000 ppm regimens maximum yield increase with both treatments of 264%. 1000 ppm N/A 51%-370%increase in fruit weight per plant. N/A [169 10000 ppm N/A 20%increase in fruit yield. N/A [61] Chili 380 ppm- +2°C and+4°C Up to 41.9%increase in fruit diameter under both increased 27%-44%increase in capsaicin [52] pepper 750 ppm temperature elevation carbon dioxide and increased temperature. across all treatments for 2 cultivars across 2 growth years. 380 ppm- +2°C and+4°C 53.8%increase in fruit number at[CO2]=550 ppm and ambient N/A [50, 750 ppm temperature elevation +2°C temperature,12.3%decrease in fruit number per plant for 51] [CO2]=750 ppm and ambient+4°C temperature.Up to-140% increase in fruit yield per plant for[CO2]=550 ppm and ambient +2°C temperature,up to-36%reduction in fruit yield per plant for[CO2]=750 ppm and ambient+4°C temperature. 380 ppm- N/A Up to 88.5%increase in number of fruits per plant,up to 13.0% No change in colour of ripe fruits.Up [49, 1140 ppm increase in fruit length,up to 15.0%increase in fruit width and to 28.6%increase in capsaicinoids in 170] up to 14.3%increase in pericarp thickness.Up to 142%increase ripe fruit. in fruit yield. 400 ppm- Natural light 92%-113%increase in total fruit yield per plant across all CO2 2%-10%decrease in soluble [171 900 ppm (233 pmol m-2 S-1)and treatments with supplementary lighting relative to ambient sugars.13%-34%decrease in supplementary light control at 400 ppm.47%-113%increase in total fruit yield per vitamin C in e[CO2].61%increase in (463 pmol m s ) plant across all CO2 treatments with natural lighting relative to capsaicin at[CO2]=550 ppm,49%- ambient control at 400 ppm. 61%decrease in capsaicin for[CO2] PDF >550 ppm. Help. Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. Tablet Continued Crop CO2Treatment Additional Fruit Yield Fruit Quality Ref Treatment(s) 1000 ppm N/A 43.80%-59.55%increase in Up to-150/0 increase in total fruit sugars.11.84%-15.84%decrease in fruit [53] fruit fresh weight per plant vitamin C,non-significant decrease in fruit titratable acids.Variable effects on across 5 cultivars. inorganic nutrient concentrations.Fruit amino acids and fatty acids mostly reduced. Eggplant 200 ppm- N/A 209%increase in fruit fresh N/A [17 3000 ppm weight and 134%increase 2] in fruit dry weight. 1000 ppm N/A 31%increase in fruit yield N/A [16 across a full year of 9] harvests. 663 ppm N/A 23.6%increase in fruit yield. N/A [45] Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of Rosaceous crops Table 3 Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of Rosaceous crops Crop CO2Treatment Additional Fruit Yield Fruit Quality Ref Treatment(s) Strawberry 553 ppm Nitrate treatment(4x 42%increase in fresh fruit yield in e[CO2]at high N/A [17 10 2-0 mM) N,17°/o increase in fresh fruit yield in e[CO2]at 3] low N. 400 ppm, Ambient temperature 9.9%-33.4%increase in total fruit yield at Total fruit polyphenolic content,flavonoid content, [56 650 ppm and (25°C)and elevated ambient temperature for cultivar"Albion",0.9% monomeric anthocyanin content and antioxidant ] 900 ppm (30°C) -31.2%decrease in total fruit yield at ambient content increased in correlation with e[CO2]at [65 temperature for cultivar"San Andreas". both temperatures for multiple cultivars(-9%- Elevated[CO2]rescues yield loss from elevated -325%increase overall increase at[CO2)= temperature. 900 ppm). 720 ppm 5°C increase in -120%increase in total fruit dry weight in 48%,21%,36%and 18%decrease in fruit [63 temperature,nitrate e[CO2[,-73%increase in total fruit dry weight in anthocyanin content,total phenolic content,total ] treatment(50 mL 0.1% e[CO2]with nitrogen treatment.No significant flavonoid content and total antioxidant content NH4NO3 twice per week) change in fruit yield for all other treatments respectively at e[CO2].29°/o and 35%increase in individually and in combination. fruit fructose and glucose respectively.43% increase in total sugars. 600 ppm- N/A 62%increase in total fruit yield in e[CO2]. N/A [58 1000 ppm 700 ppm- N/A 17.6%and 38.5%increase in individual fruit 7.0%-25.9%increase in glucose,fructose and [62 1000 ppm weight at +300 ppm and[CO2]= sucrose.5.2%-47.4%decrease in citric,malic and ] ambient+600 ppm respectively. quinic acids.Stepwise increase in concentration of most key volatile esters and up to 115.0%and 149.6%increase in fruit furaneol and linalool content. 700 ppm- N/A 13.3%increase in fruit ascorbic acid.Stepwise [64 1000 ppm increase in antioxidant and flavonoid compounds ] with increasing carbon dioxide. 700 ppm- 5.4%and 12.7%increase in marketable fruit N/A [15 1000 ppm yield for cultivars"Irvine"and"Chandler" 8] respectively. 1000 ppm N/A 47%increase in fruit number per plant,no N/A [55 significant change in individual fruit weight. 900 ppm, N/A 31%,43%and 51%increase in fruit yield at N/A [61 1500 ppm, 900 ppm,1500 ppm and 3000 ppm respectively. 3000 ppm Raspberry 436 ppm N/A 12%increase in total berry yield and 5% N/A [17 increase in average individual berry weight. 4] Nashi Pear 700 ppm Ambient+4°C 16.6%increase in fruit weight with e[CO2]. Up to 15.9%reduction in fruit firmness with e[CO2]. [75 PDF temperature Elevated[CO2]rescues yield loss from increased Up to 22.5%increase in total soluble solids with no ] significant change in aciditywith e[CO] Heiv temperature. g z Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. Impact of elevated [CO2]on cucurbitaceous crops Cucumber is the most studied fruit crop of the cucurbitaceae in relation to growth in carbon-enriched atmospheres(Figure z;Table 4).Improved carbon assimilation rates of up to 99%and 112%have been reported for cucumber and melon respectively when grown in e[CO2][66,67], demonstrating that growth in e[CO2]improves photosynthesis of cucurbitaceous crops. Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of Cucurbitaceous crops Table 4 Impact of elevated atmospheric[CO2]on yield and nutritional quality of Cucurbitaceous crops Crop CO2Treatment Additional Fruit Yield Fruit Quality Ref Treatment(s) Cucumber 400 ppm, 2 mmol L-1 Up to 73%increase in fresh fruit yield for 75%increase in fruit fructose,73%increase in glucose at [66 625 ppm, 7 mmol L-1 plants grown at highest[CO2]versus plants 7 mmol L-1 at highest[CO2].No significant change in fruit ] - 1200 ppm 14 mmol r 1 NO3 grown at lowest[CO2]at greatest N titratable acidity.e[CO2]reduced dietary fibre by 13%-18% [68 fertilisation.No significant difference in across all fertilisation treatments.Up to 84%reduction in ] yield for lower N fertilisation. fruit nitrogenous compounds in e[CO2]across all nitrogen treatments. 400 ppm, 0.06 g N kg 1 soil 31%-37%increase in fresh fruit yield for Across both nitrogen treatments at[CO2]=1200 ppm,fruit [70 800 ppm, (low N), [CO2[=800 ppm and 1200 ppm at low N. fructose was increased by 5%-6%,fruit glucose was ] 1200 ppm 0.24 g N kg-1 soil 71%-106%increase in fresh fruit yield for increased by 10%-12%and starch was increased by 29%- (high N) [CO2]=800 ppm and 1200 ppm at high N 40%. 364 ppm, N/A Up to 10.2%increase in individual fruit No significant change in fruit dry matter content [45 620 ppm weight for August production in e[CO2] ] 400-500 ppm N/A 19%increase in fresh fruit yield at e[CO2] N/A [17 5] 600-700 ppm N/A 20%increase in fresh fruit yield at e[CO2] N/A [17 6] 700 ppm N/A 14.2%-18.4%increase in fresh fruit yield at Overall reduction in fruit inorganic nutrients(N,P,K,Ca,Mg). [71 e[CO2]across two crop cycles. ] 780 ppm N/A 35%increase in fresh fruit yield in N/A [17 greenhouse supplemented with[CO2] 7] versus control greenhouse. 700 ppm- N/A 20%-30%increase in marketable fruit N/A [15 1000 ppm yield across two growing seasons. 8] 900-1000 ppm 0.6°C-1.8% 35.4%increase in dry fruit mass in cooled N/A [17 cooling and e[CO2]conditions 8] 1000 ppm N/A 8.9%increase in fruit weight but no N/A [17 significant change in fruit number at e[CO2] 9] 900 ppm, N/A 18.4%-26.3%increase in fresh fruit yield N/A [61 1500 ppm, across all CO2 elevations. ] 3000 ppm Melon 400 ppm, 0,25,50 mmol NaCI Up to 29%increase in fruit yield in all N/A [67 800 ppm, e[CO2]at no additional salinity.Elevated ] 1200 ppm [CO2]partially rescues yield loss from salinity(by up to 18%)but is insufficient to fully mitigate yield loss. 1000 ppm N/A 13%increase in muskmelon fruit number N/A [16 and 8%increase in muskmelon fruit weight 9] during summer production under e[CO2] Squash 700-1000 ppm N/A 15.5%-19.7%increase in total marketable N/A [15 yield across 2 growing seasons. 8] In cucumber(Cucumis sativus),fruit yield increases for plants grown in enriched-carbon atmospheres([CO2]=45o ppm-300o ppm)ranged between 16.2%and 41%in the absence of other parameters that could alter fruit yield.In high nitrogen supplemented fertilisation,fruit yield was as high as 106%when grown under e[CO2]of 80o ppm[68],indicating the potential of increased nitrogen fertilisation alongside[CO2]enrichment to unlock the greatest yield increases in cucumber.Interestingly,when grown under e[CO2]of 1200 ppm with the addition of high nitrogen PDF fertilisation treatment,studies found a yield increase between 71%-73%[66,68],which was lower than the 106%for plants grown at e[CO2]of 80o ppm.Concentrations of[CO2]above optimal reduced stomatal density,stomatal conductance(gs),the maximum carboxylation rate(Vcmax) HeiA"' .. .. ... . . - - .. .. _ - .._ .. . .. .. . .. . _ ... .. a - • . Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. significant reduction in multiple cycles[71].These data do suggest that e[CO2]may enhance fruit flavour and fruit yield at the expense of nutritional value. Impact of elevated [CO2]on yield and quality of fruiting trees Sweet clonal cherry(Prunus avium L.)plants were grown for 19 months in climate-controlled greenhouses at ambient(1994-358 ppm;1995- 360 ppm)or e[CO2]('700 ppm).Elevated[CO2]treatment increased photosynthesis and dry matter production,leaf(550/0)and stem(61%),after two months at'7oo ppm,however,this initial stimulation is not sustained.Photosynthetic rates were less after 10 months of growth than after 2 months of growth,and only small increases in dry mass are still evident after 10-months,suggesting that sweet cherry acclimates to e[CO2]due to long- term exposure[72].Due to the young nature of plants studied compared with fully grown mature trees(deciduous tree 15-32 m in height and with a trunk up to 1.5 m in circumference[73,74],no information is available to determine the impacts of e[CO2]on fruit yield or quality.In Nashi pear,a CO2-enriched atmosphere of'700 ppm increased fruit weight,diameter and length along with a 22.5%increase in Brix,(a key measure of sweetness for marketable fruit[75]).However,this also resulted in a reduction in fruit firmness demonstrating that improvements in yield can be nullified by negative impacts on fruit quality(Table 3). While these studies are limited in,they do indicate the potential of CO2-enriched growth for improving photosynthesis,increasing yield and quality of tree crops.However,they also suggest that some crops,especially perennial crops,may become acclimated to higher[CO2]and any gains may be lost over time. Does increasing carbon assimilation increase environmental tolerances? The work presented above also suggest that increasing CO2 uptake could have other benefits.It is notable that growth of fruit crops in carbon enriched atmospheres has a similar effect of protecting against environmental stresses,such as drought and elevated temperature,that may become increasingly common due to climate change as plants genetically engineered to increase carbon assimilation.For example,in melon (Cucumis melo),growing plants in e[CO2]has been shown to mitigate yield losses from increased salinity[67],and in sweet pepper,e[CO2]of 80o ppm was sufficient to rescue any significant yield loss of total and marketable fruits from salinity stress(2o mmol L 1 NaCl)[42].It could be hypothesised that increasing CO2 assimilation increases sugar and chlorophyll content triggering salt tolerance.However,it should be noted that these results are not universally translatable.Gray et al.[76]demonstrated in soybean that e[CO2]was insufficient to protect yields from drought conditions triggered by higher temperatures demonstrating that benefits in some crops may not be translatable across all crops of agronomical importance.Furthermore,in tomato plant Zhou et al.[77]showed that plants grown in e[CO2]were more sensitive to combined drought and heat stress;e[CO2]drives gs and transpiration reducing net photosynthesis and therefore productivity,which is concerning given that greenhouses tend to have elevated temperatures compared to the external environment due to the nature of their construction,glass and metal,and therefore e[CO2] in an enclosed system may negatively impact on yields if water supplies are limiting.This demonstrates that irrigation within greenhouse environments is an essential element and adjusting water regimes to maintain productivity and optimise water-use efficiency. It is also important to note that it is the increase in atmospheric[CO2]that causes the increase in air temperature(along with associated stresses) by absorbing energy and preventing it from being radiated out into space(see[78,79]);as such one might view that the cause cannot mitigate its own effects,however,in some crops where both[CO2]and temperature increase simultaneously,yields were maintained compared with data where temperature is increased in the absence of e[CO2]leading to yield loss and these results cannot be ignored,but a better understanding of the impact of cause and effect climate change on crop yields needs to be researched,otherwise,the logic consequences would be further increase amounts of [CO2]in the atmosphere to increase crop tolerance against the effects of ever-increasing temperatures. Interestingly,some parallels do exist between photosynthetically genetically modified crops and increased tolerance to salinity.In Arabidopsis, over-expression of Sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase(SBPase),which enhances CO2 assimilation rates by increasing the regeneration of the Rubisco substrate RuBP[8o],enhances salt tolerance through increases in sucrose,starch and chlorophyll content were reported[81].This suggests that increasing photosynthetic rates,either through increasing the availability of[CO2]for photosynthesis or increasing the plants'ability to assimilate[CO2]under ambient conditions could have a similar protective effect.It would be interesting to explore if increased carbon assimilation rates,through atmospheric manipulation or genetic modification,can have a positive impact on crop resistance to high salt environments and other abiotic stresses in large field trials or commercial greenhouses.There is currently evidence that over-expressing the Calvin-Benson cycle (CBC)enzyme SBPase can increase tolerance to chilling stress in tomato[82]and the expression of the cyanobacterial CBC bifunctional fructose- 1,6-bisphosphatases/Sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase enzyme in soybean prevent yield loss under high temperature[83].Köhler et al.[83] concluded that the manipulation of CO2 uptake could mitigate against the effects of global increases in temperature under e[CO2].This may be deemed especially important given the expected impact of global climate change.This suggests that increasing carbon assimilation through manipulation of photosynthesis[84,85]can have similar outputs to improved photosynthesis through growth in an enriched carbon atmosphere and further demonstrates the viability of this approach for improvement of yield and quality in fruiting crops.This must be studied considering the recent work showing that improved carbon assimilation also results in improved nutrient uptake and an increase in NUE[86]. Future opportunities As[CO2]surpasses 55o ppm,Asat will be limited by the rate of RuBP regeneration rather than Rubisco activity suggesting there is scope to improve plant photosynthesis to increase yield in greenhouse environments where CO2 is routinely increased to 1000 ppm or more for short periods of time. These short time-periods are furthermore unpredictable and chaotic given that greenhouses must be vented,due to external environmental PDF conditions,to maintain,as close as possible,optimal growing conditions i.e temperature and humidity inside the growth facility.Furthermore,the Heip(" [CO2]dosing capacity must be economically beneficial,especially given the chaotic nature of CO2 loss to the environment during periods of venting. Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. £loo per tonne to as much as£3000 per tonne[87,88].Therefore,future options that maximize the ability of the crop to take full benefit of the e[CO2],or maintaining higher yields when CO2 costs are unmanageable become more important. Araus et al[89],noted that canopy photosynthesis holds a crucial place in a context of yield gains through photosynthetic improvement,which requires additional factors including the availability and uptake of nutrients,such as nitrogen,irrigation,the transport of photoassimilates and sink-source balance.As such,in addition to improving photosynthetic rates via CO2 supplementation,the improvement of other plant processes such as N uptake,non-foliar photosynthesis,stomatal function,and rubisco(activase)thermotolerance so that crops are better adapted for growth in[CO2]enriched environments such as greenhouses are discussed below(Figure 3).These works will also need to account for changes to the landscape of greenhouse crop cultivation,such as a move to vertical farming,changes in growth medium from soil to substrates such as coir (derived from coconut husks)or rockwool[9o].It is estimated that more than 5o%of strawberry production occurs in substrate rather than soil [91].Coir is often used as it has been shown to retains water more efficiently than soil,so strawberry plants require less frequent watering improving water use efficiency.Coir also has a high level of aeration,which is ideal for strawberries'whose root systems require a lot of oxygen. More recent developments in hydroponics[92]and aeroponics[93],will impact on irrigation,fertiliser regimes and N uptake. Manipulation of electron Elevation in[CO>] tronspon/� Ambient ICOM 420 + ppm ' Manipulation of stomata density Increased nitrogen assimilation Photosynthetic pigment content manipulation As ICO,)surpasses 550 Wm.A.,:is limited by the CalvimBenson Cycle rate of RuBP regeneration enhanced RuBP regeneration i Is increased I biomass and Increased carbon assimaillionyield possible? and biomass and fruit yield Genetic engineering approaches I} observed in trading pops to reprogram plants for growth in elevated(co( Increased Increased fertilizer uptake. I fertilizer Optimisation of fertilisation Figure 3 Effects of elevated[CO2]on yield of fruiting crops and a representation of the potential for the manipulation of plant material for further yield increases.Created with BioRender.com Nitrogen use efficiency(NUE) With regards to fruit quality,this is a complex trait that may not be simply attributed to enhanced carbon assimilation.More research is needed to link increased assimilate,with assimilate distribution and transport,NUE to better understand the sink-source relationship in any given crop, which can vary significantly across varieties and crop types.NUE is determined by yield per unit of available N in the growth medium(i.e often coir in greenhouse grown crops).Plants with higher NUE may allocate N toward both the photosynthetic complexes(i.e N is major component of chlorophyll;total N allocated to Rubisco 18.2±6.2%[94];)and/or toward the development of additional sinks.The second definition of NUE could be described as the efficiency with which N is applied to soils,(through artificial means in greenhouse crops),is taken up by plants and converted to usable products(i.e.biomass,grain yield).This can be manipulated through breeding to identify new varieties with high NUE uptake from selected growing mediums or through engineering nitrogen symbiosis(Figure 3).Recently,scientists reported the engineering nitrogen-fixation into non- legume cereal crops by enabling them to interact with soil bacteria to convert N from the air into ammonia fertiliser[95].These works could firstly reduce the reliance on commercial synthetic fertilisers and secondly provide alternate sources of N that along with improvements to carbon assimilation,foliar or non-foliar,co-contribute to improving photosynthesis and yields in crops(Figure 3). A recent review has identified a number of targets in the literature to improve N uptake,assimilation and remobilisation through genetic manipulation(see[96]for review).One of these,the over-expression of the nitrate transporter(NRT2.3)was shown to increase nitrate concentrations in tomato increasing biomass and fruit weight[97].More recently,the transcription factor DREBIC has been identified as a regulator of NUE by controlling the expression of several important growth-related genes including the rubisco small subunit 3(RBCS3),nitrate transporters(NRT1.1B,NRT2.4),nitrate reductase(NR2)and the flowering regulator(FTL3).Once over-expressed(OE),OsDREB1C increased the abundance of photosynthetic pigments,plants were shown to have about one-third more chloroplasts,38%more rubisco and improved photosynthesis and N uptake.The OE of OsDREB1C resulted in a>40%increase in grain yield in elite rice varieties and an_20%increase in wheat yields,while in Arabidopsis,a significant increase in biomass[98].Many of these identified genes have potential for improving NUE in fruiting crops grown in e[CO2].A recent report of a large grain rice cultivar,Akita 63,having a high yield due to an enlarged sink capacity without and photosynthesis improvement.However,this work demonstrated that source capacity was strongly limiting the yield potential under high N fertilization.These authors suggested that enhancing photosynthesis is an important step to further increase yield of current high-yielding cultivars[99].This work can be extrapolated that engineering NUE and photosynthesis in plants grown at e[CO2]could provide a step-change in yields in greenhouse cultivated crops. Genetic variation in photosynthetic traits in crops and wild relatives PDF Methods of improving these traits including breeding,by exploiting the potential of crop wild relatives as a source of new traits,and/or the genetic manipulation/genome editing of specific traits.There is already evidence that substantial genetic variation exists within wild relatives of fruiting "Bind III e e— e , . I . IIe - I - e a a'a a a a -O•a •a . •a e --e•e• I e• .11 . a- - •, ,- •, , Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. factors[107,108].This work in wheat and rice is promising,demonstrating the potential for breeding new varieties better adapted to changing growth conditions,however it is unclear if such strategies will work in horticultural crops.In the case of tomato,there is considerable variation within the wild and elite varieties to suggest that such breeding strategies could be used to enhanced yield and quality[109,1101.See Sharwood et al [u1]for review(Figure 3). In transgenic rice,overproducing Rubisco,increases the biomass production and yield under high N fertilization in paddy fields suggesting that the development of new rice varieties with both high photosynthesis and large sink capacity is essential[99].Furthermore,genes encoding thermostable variants of Rubisco activase(thermos-Rca)have been identified in wild rice relatives.When over-expressed in domesticated rice, thermos-Rca was sufficient to enhance carbohydrate accumulation and improve yields after periodic exposure to elevated temperatures(+45°C) throughout the vegetative phase[112,113].Thermostable Rca have been identified in Thermophilic cyanobacteria,bacteria that thrive in high- temperature environments,making them a potential source of novel genes for engineering crops for growth at higher temperatures[114]. Improving the thermal tolerance of rubisco activase,either through breeding with wild populations or genetic engineering,could aid greenhouse grown crops better tolerate the elevated temperatures that often occur during the growing season(Figure 3). Genetic engineering of photosynthetic traits in crops Increasing the expression of enzymes and/or proteins involved in the regeneration of RuBP,CO2 transport or chloroplast electron transport have previously been shown to enhance photosynthetic efficiency and increases in yield[84,85,115-117].However,once again,it cannot be ignored that much of this work has focused on non-fruiting crops,such as Arabidopsis,tobacco,wheat and rice,(see Simkin et al.[84]for review),grown in controlled conditions,performed in pots,in soil or in the field with controlled irrigation,which is not typical of global agriculture.Furthermore, work carried out in tomato,over-expression of sedoheptulose-1,7-bisphosphatase,involved in RuBP regeneration,did not report on fruit yield [82].These data indicating that more work is required to understand how these manipulations would impact fruiting crops grown in tightly controlled environments. One potential target for genetic manipulation is the starch synthesis enzyme adenosine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylase(AGPase); increasing AGPase activity has potential to increase starch accumulation for growth.Increased accumulation of starch has been shown to have little negative feedback on photosynthesis[118]and increased AGPase activity in the chloroplast would increase the strength of the transient starch pool, which acts as a sink in the chloroplast.Reduced sink capacity does induce negative feedback on photosynthesis and can limit photosynthesis even in favourable conditions(e.g.elevated[CO2])[119],suggesting that increasing the sink may allow for greater CO2 assimilation in supplemented[CO2] growth environments. Although genetic manipulation has the potential to further increase yields in crops grown in enriched[CO2]environments,allowing them to take better advantage of supplemental CO2 increasing net photosynthetic rates and associated yields(Figure 3),it should also be noted that some reports have suggested that increases in yield in genetically enhanced photosynthetic crops are likely not uniquely down to increases in carbon assimilation but a combination of factors;for example improvements in carbon uptake allow for an increase in N assimilation[120].Furthermore,it has also been reported that such increase in yield from enhanced photosynthetic efficiency critically rely on the availability and uptake of water and nutrients(for review see[121,122]),therefore,genetic engineering as an approach alone may be limiting if other aspects of crop cultivation,such as irrigation,planting regimes,fertilisation(i.e NUE)and growth media(i.e soil,coir,rockwool),are not taken into account and co-optimised. Non-foliar photosynthesis Leaves are not the only location within the plant where photosynthesis occurs,with evidence of photosynthesis in petioles and stems[123,124],and fruit[124]that may provide significant and alternative sources of photo-assimilates essential for optimal yield.Assimilation of atmospheric CO2 is dependent on the number and behaviour of stomata,and the stems of many plants have stomata distributed along the epidermis[125,126]and an evaluation of the photosynthetic activity in stems of various plants accounted for up to 4%of the total photosynthetic activity[127].Furthermore, Hu et al.demonstrated the importance of stem photosynthesis to yield in cotton;maintaining the stem in darkness reduced seed weight by 16% [128]showing the stem provides photoassimilates for plant development and growth. As previously noted,many fruiting crops produce green fruit containing all the necessary proteins and enzymes to carry out photosynthesis[127, 129,130]that may provide significant and alternative sources of photoassimilates essential for optimal yield and quality[124].Tomato fruit photosynthesis contributes to net sugar accumulation and growth and previous work concluded that tomato fruit photosynthesis contributes between lo%and 15%of the total fixed carbon of the fruit[127,131][132],.It should be noted that,unlike many crops,cucumber fruit remain green through to maturity,have stomata(suggesting they perform gas exchange to drive photosynthesis),and have a similar surface area to an expanded leaf[13o].It has previously been reported that cucumber fruit had high photosynthetic and respiratory rates[133]and contribute approximately 9.4%of their own carbon requirements[13o].It should be noted that in fruit with stomata,such as cucumber,there are two potential major sources of CO2.Firstly,Rubisco assimilates atmospheric[CO2]through the stomatal pores,leading to the production of sugars via the CBC and secondly, CO2 released by mitochondrial respiration is re-fixed(recycling photosynthesis)[125,134].Whilst this confirms that photosynthesis occurs in fruits,the extent and importance is not clear.In e[CO2],it seems plausible that cucumber fruit photosynthesis may contribute directly to fruit size (and therefore yield by weight)and quality through their ability to directly access carbon in an enriched atmosphere via their stomata(for a review fruit photosynthesis,see[124,135].Therefore,increasing carbon capture by non-foliar tissues has the potential to significantly impact yield and combined with an increase N uptake(i.e.slow release fertilizers[136])to balance the increased carbon uptake,and optimised irrigation regimes has the potential to maximise such yield gains. PDF HeI1(f Conclusions Oxford University Press uses cookies to enhance your experience on our website.By selecting`accept all'you are agreeing to our use of cookies.You can change your cookie setting More information can be found in our Cookie Policy. maximise productivity.An evaluation of fruit quality under these conditions has also been shown to be highly variable between treatments and difference are observed between cultivars with the same treatment suggesting that much more research is required to identify the specific mechanisms behind changes in fruit quality.In the case of soft fruit production in greenhouse environments,it will be important to determine if the quality of fruit harvested early in the season differs from that of fruit harvested later in the season when plants have spent a more significant period of time exposed to e[CO2]growth conditions.Cherry for instance,when grown under prolonged periods of e[CO21,acclimates to prolonged exposure and initial significant gains in yield observed after two months are less detectable after ten months and are not significantly different to control plants grown at a[CO2][72].This may in one respect account for differences in nutritional quality observed in fruit grown in similar conditions in different studies(i.e.fruit harvested at different times in the study)where additional fertilizer treatments aren't provided. Increases in yield associated with e[CO2]controlled environments maybe about more than additional carbon.Controlled environments also allow the regulation of transpiration(e.g.by controlling vapour pressure deficit)and therefore water uptake and the inclusion of additional fertilisation (specifically N).Breeding new varieties adapted to these growth conditions may also be more amenable given the hostility towards genetically modified crops.A recent review noted that new phenomics,genomics,and bioinformatics tools make it possible to harness the untapped potential of crop genetic resources(including wild relatives)to create combinations of traits to enhance yield in high[CO2]controlled environments[137]. Breeding alone may not be sufficient to adapt all varieties,or all crops,to high[CO2]growing environments traditionally used in greenhouses. However,over the last several decades,agricultural research has adopted technologies such as genetic engineering and"genome editing"to improve traits in key crops that could be useful in these circumstances[85,138-140].These include advances in the tools available to carry out this work,including vectors for multiple gene insertion[141-145]and tissue specific promoters[146-150].If the promise of these biotechnology programs is to be realized,it will be necessary to address the public perception of genetic modification and genome editing technologies to gain greater acceptance. Genetic manipulation,may need to go beyond the direct manipulation of carbon assimilation in leaves[84,180],but focus on the manipulating and control of stomatal function[151,152],the manipulation of pigments complexes in ripening fruit[153],enhancement of light capture by the leaves through the manipulation of chlorophyll distribution and form[1541 and importantly look a methodologies for increasing N uptake via transgenic [96]or traditional means(improved fertilization regimes). It should also be noted that the introduction of new growing,hydroponics,aquaponics and aeroponics may require further study,to breed and adapt or engineer plants root architecture for these new growth media.In conclusion,greenhouse cultivation offers the opportunity to manipulate growing atmosphere,lights and VPD for improved yields and we can now look at the opportunities to breed and engineer plants specifically optimised for these conditions. Acknowledgments This research is funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council(BBSRC)Collaborative Training Partnerships(CTP)for Fruit Crop Research in partnership with NIAB EMR and Reading University.N.H.D was supported by"Realising increased photosynthetic efficiency to increase strawberry yields"(BBSRC,BB/S507192/1)awarded to A.J.S.A.J.S is supported by the Growing Kent and Medway Program,UK;Ref 107139. Author Contributions N.H.D and A.J.S drafted and wrote the manuscript with input from T.L,C.A.R and C.W who also edited the final version. Conflict of interests The authors declare no competing interests. References 1. Ainsworth EA,Rogers A.The response of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to rising[CO2]:mechanisms and environmental interactions.Plant Cell Environ. 2007;30:258-70. Google Scholar Crossref PubMed WorldCat 2. Kimball BA.Crop responses to elevated CO2 and interactions with H20,N,and temperature.Curr Opin Plant Biol.2016;31:36-43. 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