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Article
<br /> less than 1 km(ref.50).Furthermore,our scraper biomass estimates in greenhouse gas emissions may buy reefs more time to adapt and
<br /> were derived from multiple observations across several time points persist into the future.Contemporary governance must therefore
<br /> following the marine heatwave,rather than a single snapshot estimate. shift towards an integrated approach to align management strategies
<br /> Such strong site-based fidelity,combined with our recurring surveys, with reef ecosystem processes and the coincident multiscale human
<br /> suggests that resident scrapers played a key role in promoting higher drivers that affect them'.
<br /> reef-builder cover rather than the association driven purely byan influx An ambitious effort is underway to protect 30%of Earth's land and
<br /> of individuals seeking more favourable habitat postdisturbance. sea areas by 2030 as part of the recently adopted Kunming-Montreal
<br /> Sea-based management efforts are often disconnected from those Global Biodiversity Framework'.The motivation behind the'30 by 30'
<br /> occurring onland118.We generated management scenarios ofhow is to support ecological resilience,conserve biodiversityand preserve
<br /> varying scraper biomass(sea-based management)and wastewater pollu- ecosystem services that underpin human well-being53.The 30 by 30
<br /> tion(land-based management)influenced the probability of being in has broad participation and is being incorporated into conservation
<br /> a low,moderate(more than the 25th and less than the 75th percentile) efforts by nations globally.However,our results reveal that sea-based
<br /> or high reef-builder cover category.Our findings indicate that aninte- management alone is insufficient to mitigate the full spectrum of local
<br /> grated management approach can result in a positive synergistic human effects on coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs.These efforts
<br /> outcome for coral reefs(Fig.4b).For example,four years following must therefore explicitly couple the respective 30%land-sea targets
<br /> the marine heatwave,a reef across our study region with low scraper to realize coastal ocean conservation goals.But in most coastal geo-
<br /> biomass(forexample,30 kg ha-')and relatively high wastewater pollu- graphies,30%protection is impractical and unethical given the high
<br /> tion(forexample,600,000 1 ha-')is most likelyto have low reef-builder proportion of peoplethat live nearand depend on these ecosystem S14.
<br /> cover(83%probability)(Fig.4b,'initial condition').Where scraper Instead,mitigating land-based impacts such as wastewater pollution
<br /> biomass is higher(for example,250 kg ha-')but wastewater pollution must occur together with fisheries governance for successful con-
<br /> remains high,there is a 70%probability of moderate reef-builder cover servation outcomes,akin to long-standing indigenous stewardship
<br /> (scenario A).Conversely,where wastewater pollution is lower(for practices of island ecosystems16.Only by adopting coupled land-sea
<br /> example,2,5001 ha-'),but scraper biomass remains low,there is an policy measures,alongsideglobal emissions reductions,will coral reef
<br /> 83%probability of moderate reef-builder cover(scenario B).However, ecosystems and the human communities they support have the best
<br /> ifboth land and sea management scenarios occur,there isan 80%prob- opportunity for persistence in our changing climate.
<br /> ability of high reef-builder cover(scenario Q.Combining land and sea
<br /> management resulted in a three-to sixfold increase in the probability
<br /> of high reef-builder coverfour years following severe heat stress than Onlinecontent
<br /> if land or sea were managed in isolation. Any methods,additional references,Nature Portfolio reportingsumma-
<br /> ries,source data,extended data,supplementary information,acknowl-
<br /> edgements,peer review information;details of author contributions
<br /> Conclusion and competing interests;and statements of data and code availability
<br /> Herewe showthat simultaneously mitigating local land-and sea-based are available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s4l586-023-06394-w.
<br /> human impacts promotes coral reef persistence before,during and in
<br /> the years following a historically unprecedented marine heatwave in
<br /> Hawai'i.Our unique spatiallyand temporally resolved data highlighted 1. Hughes,T.P.et al.Coral reefs in the Anthropocene.Nature 546,82-90(2017).
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<br /> climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.Nature 518,94-97
<br /> each ofthesetemporal periods.Forexample,thebiomass ofall reef-fish (2015).
<br /> groupswas associatedwith positive reef trajectories over the 12 years 3. McLeod,E.et at.The future of resi li ence-based management in coral reef ecosystems.
<br /> leadinguptothe marine heatwave.Bycontrast,scraper biomasswasthe J.Environ.Manage.233,291-301(2019).
<br /> 4. Taljaard,S.et at.Implementing integrated coastal management in a sector-based
<br /> onlyfishgroup associated with positive outcomes for reefs four years governance system.Ocean Coast Manage.67,39-53(2012).
<br /> following severe heat stress.This suggests that reef fish play essential 5. CBD.Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.In Proc.Conference ofParties to
<br /> the Convention on Biological Diversity Fifteenth Meeting CBD/COP1151L.25(2022).
<br /> functional roles at different points in time and that particular feeding
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<br /> distrubance30.Similarly,land-based impacts consistently emerged as 7. Ku m m u,M.et a 1.Over the h i Its and fu rther away from coast:global geospatial patterns of
<br /> human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries.Environ.Res.Lett.11,034010
<br /> driving negative coral reef outcomes,but the combination of stress-
<br /> (2016).
<br /> ors changed depending on the observational time window in ques- 8. He,Q.&Silliman,B.R.Climate change,human impacts,and coastal ecosystems in the
<br /> tion.Highly resolved data on the local human impacts that drive reef Anthropocene.Curr.Biol.29,R1021-R1035(2019).
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<br /> regions.However,our overarching finding that integrated land-sea 10. Andrew,N.L.,Bright,P.,de La Rua,L.,Tech,S.J.&Vickers,M.Coastal proximity of
<br /> management benefits coral reefs under ocean warming,is applicable populations in 22 Pacific Island countries and territories.PLoS ONE14,e0223249(2019).
<br /> t0 populated reefs globally. 11. MacNeil,M.A.et at.Water quality mediates resilience on the Great Barrier Reef.Nat.Ecol.
<br /> Evol.3,620-627(2019).
<br /> The local human impacts we identify here represent the direct or 12. Oliver,E.C.J.et at.Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century.
<br /> proximate drivers of reef condition in our study.These in turn are dic- Nat.Commun.9,1324(2018).
<br /> tated by an array of distal socioeconomic and cultural factors such 13. Hughes,T.P.et at.Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.Nature 543,
<br /> 373-377(2017).
<br /> as human migration and urbanization,finance,trade and tourism 14. Hughes,T.P.et at.Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.Nature 556,
<br /> that indirectly affect how people interact with coral reefs" Distal 492-496(2018).
<br /> 15. Edgar,G.J.et al.Continent-wide declines in shallow reef Life over a decade of ocean
<br /> human drivers also underpin climate change that is driving severe warming.Nature615,858-865(2023).
<br /> marine heatwaves that trigger mass coral bleaching at global scales. 16. Winter,K.B.et at.Indigenous stewardship through novel approaches to collaborative
<br /> Increases in future ocean temperatures and the frequency and sever- management in Hawaii.Ecol.soc.28,26(2023).
<br /> 52 17. Sandin,S.A.et at.Harnessing island-ocean connections to maximize marine benefits of
<br /> ity of coral bleaching events could simply overwhelm the positive island conservation.Proc.NatlAcad.Sci.USA 119,e2122354119(2022).
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<br /> and among countries under reduced emissions scenarios'Z.Actions 19. Marshall,P.A.,Schuttenberg,H.Z.&West,J.M.A Reef Manager's Guide to Coral
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<br /> 6 1 Nature I www.nature.com
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