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Don't Focus on the Skinny Black Line '. Weather forecasting has never been and will likely never of the storm.This is the first product that explicitly gives be an exact science.Thus,the ability to forecast the information about the possible wind impact at individual exact track of a hurricane will always present a challenge locations. for hurricane forecasters and more importantly those who use hurricane track forecasts as guidance to make The main point to consider is the eventual track of Katrina decisions on evacuations. The two graphics presented on was well to the west of the"skinny black line"and the the next page are examples of two highly used forecast catastrophic damage that was inflicted during landfall products issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center fell well within the cone of uncertainty several days after in Honolulu HI. These are the actual forecast products these forecast products. Based on this, for track and wind swath produced for what was at the the best advice to residents facing a potential land falling time Hurricane Flossie. First off,while it is apparent in hurricane is;a hurricane is not a point on a map,the Figure 1 that the center of Flossie was denoted as a point, dangerous effects of a hurricane reach well away from the the reality is that a tropical storm or hurricane in NOT a center so"Don't Focus On The Skinny Black Line!!" point on a map and that storm inundation damage,wind damage and in fact loss of life can occur many miles from the center of the storm. In Figure 1,the white and hatched regions briefly explained are the cone of uncertainty which show the average track errors during the last ten years superimposed on the"skinny black line"which represents the actual forecast track for the center of the storm. Because of improvements in forecasts,the forecast track today remains within the cone for the entire five days about two-thirds of the time.This means that if your area lies within the cone,it is wise to assume that you could easily take a direct hit,and even if your area does not take a direct hit,you could still be in serious danger. Figure 2,is a new product that provide the actual chance for every location of experiencing at least tropical storm (39 mph or greater)sustained winds over the following five days. This new tool is an improvement over what has been made available in that it takes into account uncertainty in track,peak winds,and the size 14