Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan: 03. Land Use and Development

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Chapter 3:Land Use and Development • Other Basic Industries There is tremendous potential for expansion in other industries such as aquaculture, astronomy, renewable energy, research and development, and special events such as cultural festivals and athletic events. Employment and population projections for the County of Hawaii were developed through the analysis of relationships between economic activity, employment, and population. The analytical approach used entails the forecasting of employment in basic industries and the relationship that changes in employment have upon population. Primary Income Generators are those industries that generate income from outside the County. They are assumed to be the foundation of the local economy and the key to the development of the island. Primary Income Generators include agriculture, tourism, the manufacturing of export products, and research and development. These Primary income Generators, in turn, "drive" the secondary industries, or those enterprises that service the Primary Income Generators or the local popu- lation and include wholesaling, retailing and services. The Primary Income Generators de- termine the long-run pattern of population and income growth for the County. Population projections developed for the General Plan assume that the visitor industry will grow at an annual rate of 1% (Series A) to 3% (Series C), compared to a historical growth rate of 1.45%between the years 1977 and 1998. The resulting resident population projection for the year 2020 ranges from 213,000 to 237,000, compared to 148,700 residents according to the 2000 census, an increase of 43%to 59%over 20 years. 3.4 Analysis The planning committee concluded that development has largely been a continuation of an overarching trend over the past 10 years but,unlike Honolulu in the past 5 years,having no dramatic "boom"economy.No great shift in population centers or economic centers has occurred. However, agriculture in the post-plantation era has become increasingly specialized per the various micro-climates on the island. Thus,Hawaii County is mostly characterized by the vulnerabilities of rural and residential communities. Hawaii Island is uniquely at risk to several natural hazards. Compared to the other counties in this State,the relative risks are as follows: • High Winds/Tropical Cyclones. Higher risk relative to the other counties due to the easternmost location,but fortuitously low historic events;more complex wind speed- up patterns due to five dominant mountains; • Lava Flows. Unique risk relative to other counties, as the only county with active volcanoes; isolation of rural communities is a threat; • VOG. Volcanic gas emissions have had significant impact on Hawaii County's specialty floral agriculture; • Earthquakes. Higher risk relative to the other counties;past earthquake-induced landslides have also impacted agricultural water supplies; • Tsunamis. Lower risk compared to the other counties due to post mitigation after historic events. Concern for hazard awareness of tourist population addressed by 3-5 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan