2011 Housing Planning Study - Technical Report

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HAWAII HOUSING MODEL From the start, the Hawaii Housing Planning Study has included a model of Hawaii's housing market intended to summarize the findings of the study and support estimates of current demand and forecasts of unit needs into the future. The model has become a central focus of the study over the years and has been updated each time the study was conducted. As housing planners became familiar with each new model their expectations grew. By 2003 it was apparent that the original model structure was insufficient to answer the growing number of questions planners put forth and some structural changes were made. In 2006, it was decided to maintain the basic structure developed in 2003 and to significantly redesign the model and its outputs. In 2011, the Request for Proposal (RFP) for the project called for no changes to the Hawaii Housing Model. HOUSING MODEL 2011 The Hawaii Housing Model for 2006 is the base of housing modeling in the State of Hawaii today. It will be useful to review its basic composition here. The model combines information from the housing inventory and housing demand surveys with basic population and economic series in a multi-faceted model designed to simulate the structure of Hawaii's housing market and to produce a forecast of housing units needed through the year 2030. Foundation Data The foundation variables for the Hawaii Housing Model are the population of Hawaii (taken from DBEDT and Census estimates) and the number of housing units in the State (taken from the Housing Inventory). Several important data series round out the foundation data: + ➢ Total housing units in the State; single family and multi-family units ➢ Market rent data for single family and multi-family units, including: • Percent of households that rent • Number of single family and multi-family rental monthly ads (supply) • Median single family and multi-family rents (value) ➢ Single family and multi-family new construction estimates ➢ Affordability calculated from HUD income guidelines each year for each county ➢ Visitor unit estimates, including: • New construction • Units that enter visitor plant (used as hotel rooms) • Units lost to visitor industry (when tourism is strong) ➢ Housing resale estimates for single family and multi-family units, including: • Number of units on market • Excess inventory • Number of resales All of the data series listed above are gathered for each county. The Hawaii Housing Model can be used to develop estimates for the State as a whole or for each individual County. SMS updates these data periodically, regardless of the HHPS schedule. Hawaii Housing Planning Study,2011: Technical Report Page 12 0 SMS, Inc. November,2011