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Table 3. Components of Population Change, growth, but did not quite reach the level seen in
<br /> Hawaii, 1990-2010 the years before 2000.
<br /> Natural I New Net
<br /> Increase Mi ration Chan a Data in Table 4 also reflect the uncertainties of
<br /> 1990 to 2000 ACS estimates of population and households in
<br /> State 113,112 -9,804 103,308 the middle years of the last decade 16. We might
<br /> Honolulu 86,733 46,808 39,925 expect, however, that the initial upswing in
<br /> employment and housing sales between 2002
<br /> Hawaii 10,477 17,883 28,360 and 2007 reduced pent-up demand and
<br /> Kauai 4,601 2,685 7,286 decreased doubling-up over the same period.
<br /> Maui 11,301 16,436 27,737 That would result in smaller households.
<br /> 2000 to 2010
<br /> State 93,118 55,646 148,764 As the period of rapidly increasing housing
<br /> Honolulu 68,958 8,093 77,051 prices ended and the recession began, the
<br /> Hawaii 9,914 26,488 36,402 opposite trends prevailed, leading to an increase
<br /> Kauai 3,517 5,111 5,111 in household size once again.
<br /> Maui 10,729 15,954 15,954
<br /> Percent Difference
<br /> State -17.7% 667.6% 44.0%
<br /> Honolulu -20.5% 117.3% 93.0%
<br /> Hawaii -5-4% 48.1% 28.4%
<br /> Kauai -23.6% 90.4% 18.4%
<br /> Maui -5.1% -2.9% -3.8%
<br /> Source: DBEDT Data Book, 2009, Table 1.59 and 2010,
<br /> Table 1.56. calculated as (PQ - Pb )/ Pb )* 100. Census
<br /> definitions are based on the population on July 1 each year.
<br /> Households and Household Size
<br /> Population growth contributes to housing
<br /> demand through the filter of household
<br /> formation. We generally measure household
<br /> formation in terms of the increase in households
<br /> as reported by the U.S. Census. Table 4 shows
<br /> household growth and average household size
<br /> for the State of Hawaii and each of its four
<br /> counties. Data are shown for selected years
<br /> between 1990 and 2010.
<br /> We expect the growth pattern for households to
<br /> be very similar to the growth pattern for the 'S ACS was first conducted in 2003 and covered the City
<br /> population (Table 2). The tables suggest a and County of Honolulu only. Coverage was expanded
<br /> to the Counties of Hawaii and Maui in 2005. In all
<br /> slightly different pattern for households. years, separate estimates were developed for the State
<br /> as a whole. The estimate for Kauai County is taken as
<br /> Population growth was relatively slow during the the ACS State estimate, minus estimates for the other
<br /> nineties and increased a bit during the last three counties. The statistical accuracy of Acs
<br /> g improves every year, especially with the advent of three-
<br /> decade, largely in response to economic growth. and five-year aggregations after 2007. Nevertheless,
<br /> The average household size fell off a bit by 2003 estimates for the County of Kauai remained unstable
<br /> and a bit more by 2006. It then resumed faster throughout the past decade.
<br /> Hawaii Housing Planning Study,2011 Page 9
<br /> 0 SMS, Inc. November,2011
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