2011 Housing Planning Study - Inventory Report

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HHPS inventory estimates (dots) for available units were nearly identical to Census total housing units in 1992 and 1997. They were closer to ACS estimates of available units in 2003, 2006, and 2010. The last three estimates were produced by HIS and the 90's estimates were produced by a private contractor extracting data from TMK files. More detailed data for the counties suggests that Honolulu estimates exhibit much the same pattern, and that Maui County figures are close to the same pattern. HHPS estimates for Hawaii and Kauai Counties are further off the mark, especially in the past decade. Figure 5 shows U.S. Census/ACS estimates for added units each year since 1990 -- total, available, and occupied housing units. We have added a third data series, authorized building permits, for comparison. While we expected the number of building permits issued each year would be higher than the total number of units produced, it is reasonable to assume that the two series would have similar shapes. Indeed that seems to be the case for total units. Figure 5: Added Units: Inventory, Census, and Permits Data, 1990 to 2010 30000 —Tota I 25000 Available —Occupied tPermits 20000 15000 10000 ---s--------------�` i 5000 0 0 c A A c A O A 0 1 A A 4 6 O O O ti Z O O 3 O O b O O h O '� O O`b O O°� O 1 O 1 '1 'y ti ti ti ti ti 1 1 ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti ti L,�OSJS L�cSJS PL5 PL5 PLS PLS PAS PGy PL5 POC.�OZJS Sources: U.S. Census 1990,2000, and 2010,ACS 2002-2009,Authorized building permits 1990-2010. Total units added runs very nearly parallel to authorized building permits. That was a bit of a surprise since production usually lags permitting by significant margins in Hawaii. The annual supply of available units does lag permitting in the latter years of the housing bubble of 2003 to 2007. ACS data can be taken as evidence that a lag in production is associated with an Hawari Housing Planning Study,2011 —Inventory Report Page 17 ©SMS, Inc. November,2011