HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0050.011 2020-2022 Bill p0
J' MK JOHN M. KNOX & ASSOCIATES, INC.
COUNTY cFESTIMONY OF JOHN M: KNOX, PH.D. ON PALAMANUI PROPOSAL
COUNTY DF HAWAII
Time 3: .R CEI�D Hawaii County Council on Planning, Feb. 2, 2021
Date JAN 2 5 2021
Chair Kierkiewicz and Committee members, I'm John Knox, a consultant for Palamanui
LLC. My testimony is taken from the summary of a report we prepared in 2014 and early
2015. That's obviously been a while, and I should acknowledge that I've not been much
active in Kona since, but the report's co-author Dr. Gregory Chun has remained very
aware of Hawaii Island and University issues.
However, my company John M. Knox &Associates was involved in assessing economic
and/or social impacts of West Hawaii developments since the early 1980s. We prepared
original assessments for the HOST Park at NELHA, Mauna Kea, Mauna Lani, Waikoloa,
Kukio, and for an early version of the Palamanui project when it was known as "Lands of
Kau."
The overall purpose of our report was to assess socio-economic costs if the proposed
Palamanui University Village project does not proceed (and/or is delayed indefinitely).
With the help of Dr. Gregory Chun, we looked both at some basic economic numbers and
also at more qualitative opportunity costs. Perhaps our most fundamental conclusion is
that the new University campus will make little sense if it stands in isolation with no
adjacent support community, but there are other issues as well.
1001 Bishop St.,Suite 2850•Honolulu,HI 96813 USA•Phone(808)523-1352■Fax(808)523-1353 50.11
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What is at stake in terms of measurable econon is impact? First, we looked: at the
economic value of the developer's spending on infrastructure benefitting then campus ,:.:r7
and/or the wider community — water system, acce s road to the campus, ;other direct
funding to the University. This has totaled $21.6 mill on in 2014 dollars (which translates
to about $24 million in 2020 dollars). With "ripple" a ects, that's $51 million 2020 dollars
in economic activity, $16 million in household inco e, and 339 full- and part-time job-
years —almost all of which will be in Hawaii County.
Second, we looked at original studies for both the p-ivate University Village project and
the next phase of campus development, and updated results into 2014 dollars for the
report, but I'll again state them here as approximate 2020 dollars. In addition to more than
$550 million dollars in total construction output— anc 1,840 operational jobs at build-out
—the analysis suggests the County would receive $39.2 million in net tax revenues each
year when the University Village project is built out. For the future campus expansion, the
University's own original study indicates what is at stake are $39 to $42 million (2020
dollars) in direct construction-related economic activity (twice that with "ripple" effects);
100 FTE direct operational campus jobs with higher average earnings than at present; as
well as $31.5 million annually in economic activity at ull operations (2020 dollars).
We scoured the literature and contacted every ajor national collegiate planning
organization to see if we could find any example of a uccessful campus with no support
community. We could not, and every organization or planning expert we talked to
expressed grave doubts that this would be possibl . We also talked to West Hawaii
Testimony of John M. Knox,PhD, on Palamanui Proposal Page 2
JQM- K John NI. Knox&Associates, Inc. Feb.2, 2021
neighbors and community leaders and identified a number of other potential opportunities
at risk if the project does not move, though these may have changed in the years since.
In the words of Eric Crispin, former Oahu Planning Department director and also former
UH-Manoa director of Physical Management, "the right mix of neighborhood commercial
is crucial for the college/university to survive." And "from a land use perspective, [lack of
a support community is] simply bad planning and provides for a poor quality of life ..."
Testimony of John M. Knox, PhD, on Palamanui Proposal Page 3