HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0476.006 2020-2022 w
From: tawn@honokaapeople.com
Sent: Monday,January 03, 2022 9:06 AM
To: Council Testimony
Subject: Testimony: Comm:476 - Destination Management Plan Committee on Governmental
Operations, Relations and Economic Development
TESTIMONY: HAWAII COUNTY DESTINATION MANAGEMENT PLAN
I BEGIN WITH A SET OF FACTS: (The readers may have been presented with some of this material previously,but I b4yve it 1*
worthy of a reread in the context of this Destination Management Plan)
1. The Hawaii Tourism Authority is in the business of promoting tourism to"the most remote inhabited archipelago from y CoAfimetal
land mass"on the planet.
2. Hawaii's visitors in 2019 numbered 10.3 million. Hawaii's population is 1.4 million.
3. Studies disclose that 86%of passengers on Hawaii flights are non-residents.
4. Using HTA's numbers of visitors from each of 8 zones of origin and an airport representative of that zone,in 2019 the weighted average
round-trip itinerary mileage of visitors to Hawai'i was 7,000 miles.
5. With 10 million visitors m2019,this computes to 74 Billion passenger miles traveled by visitors to Hawaii.
6. Using the(aviation industry run)International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)Carbon Dioxide Emissions Calculator,determination
can be made of the CO2 emissions from air travel for one round trip passenger from a designated airport in each of Hawaii Tourism
Authority's 8 regions of origin(Western U.S.,Europe, etc). Multiplying that number by the number of visitors from that region calculates
the total Carbon Dioxide emissions for Hawaii visitation from that region. Adding these calculates total CO2 emissions for Tourism to
Hawaii. See calculations and results here:
haps://drive.google.com/file/d/14MfSdaduep4I2Xb6y2EKM6la3 iJnAVMI/view?usp=sharing
7. In 2019 the total CO2 emissions from air transport of visitors to Hawaii was 8 million tons.
8. For over 10 years it has been understood that the total greenhouse gas emissions from aviation,which includes NOx emissions and water
vapor and contrail and contrail cirrus cloudiness,account for up to twice the global warming potential of CO2 itself. These total Greenhouse
Gas emissions are measured as CO2(equivalents). It is known that these Non-0O2 emissions become more prominent in flight above 9,000
meters(>90%of Hawaii flight time).
9. ICAO calculates only the CO2 emissions of aviation and proposes that the Non-0O2 emissions are insufficiently understood to include
them. Of the eight most prominent aviation greenhouse gas calculators(Carbon Offset websites)on the internet,only ICAO does not include
the Non-0O2 emissions in their calculations.
10. Using the above eight GHG calculators to compute emissions for the example Portland/Honolulu RT,that calculator which comes closest
to average is at the Offset website My Climate. Applying this calculator to the visitors from each of the eight HTA Regions of Origin
designates a total CO2(equivalent)(global warming potential)of 18 million tons CO2(e)in 2019 visitor air transport to Hawaii.
11. A `white paper',describing the above findings,was presented to the Honolulu Climate Change Commission in Oct.2020 where it was
described as an"incredibly important paper"by current chair Charles Fletcher PhD.and recommended that it be presented to the State
Climate Commission.
12. In 2021,the most definitive paper to date on greenhouse gas emissions from Aviation, `The Contribution of Global Aviation to
Anthropomorphic Climate Forcing,2000 to 2018',was published by Lee, et al.in the peer reviewed journal,Atmospheric
Environment. The summation statement in the Abstract of that dense and technical paper is the following: "CO2-warming-equivalent
emissions based on global warming potentials(GWP method)indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at
approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone."
13. In August 2021,the IPCC published its seminal 6th Assessment Report(Code Red for Humanity). In the Short Term Climate Forcers
section on Aviation of this 4000 page document,the IPCC gives full endorsement of Lee's conclusion. The IPCC authors state, "Our
assessment builds on Lee et al.(2020).""Their study(Lee, et al.)consists of an updated,comprehensive assessment of aviation climate
forcing in terms of RF and ERF based on a large number of studies and the most recent air traffic and fuel use datasets available,new
calculations and the normalization of values from published modeling studies, and combining the resulting best estimates via Monte Carlo
t Comm.No (a.(a
Ref.To: p0 ANT-R&
Ref.
analysis."The IPCC reflects Lee's finding:"Lee et al. (2020a),reports a net aviation ERF for year 2018 emissions of+0.101 W/sq.meter(5-
95%likelihood range of 0.055 -0.145)with major contributions from contrail cirrus(0.057 W/sq.in),CO2(0.034 W/sq.m),and NOx(0.017
W/sq. m)."In conclusion the IPCC author concurs with Lee,"In summary,the net aviation ERF is assessed to be+0.1 W/sq. Meter(+/-
0.045)for the year 2018(low confidence)." This `low confidence' designation will be explained momentarily.
14. Thus,the IPCC and Lee,et al.,in 2021 give a more definitive method of calculation of Hawaii visitor air transport global warming
emissions. Using this method,which calculates the CO2 emissions and then multiplies by three to account for the `non-0O2' emissions,the
total global warming emissions from Hawaii visitor air transport are computed as 24 million tons CO2(e)in 2019.
15. The above `low confidence' designation refers to the large uncertainty range of 0.1 W/sq.Meter(+/-0.045). This calculates, for
emissions from air transport of Hawaii visitors,to 24 million tons with a 5%to 95%confidence range of 13.7 million to 36.2 million
tons. As it is known that `non-0O2 emissions' are greater at higher flight altitudes(esp. above 9,000 meters),it is likely that air transport to
Hawaii will result in global warming emissions more toward the upper end of this range whereas regional flights would be in the lower
range.
16. With 24 million tons total GHG emissions and 10 million visitors,the average distance visitor(Dallas/Honolulu RT)in 2019 was
responsible for 2.4 tons global warming GHG emissions.
17. From the 2019 Hawaii State Greenhouse Gas Inventory,total state GHG emissions from stationary combustion(all electricity generation
and petroleum refining)was 7.8 million tons. All ground transportation emissions were 4 million tons. Thus the total Hawaii GHG domestic
emissions were 11.8 million tons. Air Transport of visitors accounted for 2x the state's total domestic greenhouse gas emissions. Let me ask,
"What matter does it make if we transition to electric vehicles and solar electricity generation if we continue to encourage visitation here?
18. In 2020 the IPCC calculated the individual world citizen equitable yearly `carbon budget' in order to keep anthropogenic global
warming below 1.75C and reach Zero net emissions by 2050 to be 2.7 tans CO2(e)per year.Thus the average visitor has expended almost
all of his yearly equitable carbon allotment in air travel to Hawai'i.
FROM HERE I VENTURE INTO THE REALM OF OPINION:
19. As `beneficiaries' of Hawai'i's tourism,the residents of Hawai'i must accept responsibility for the environmental consequences of
promoting tourism here.These 24 million tons CO2(e) `Belong'to the 1.4 million residents,as our government representatives have
encouraged this tourism.Thus,each Hawai'i resident has responsibility for 17 tons CO2(e)emitted by air travel of visitors,in addition to
their own 2.7 ton equitable allotment.This translates to the yearly carbon budget of six world citizens appropriated by each Hawai'i resident
through air transport of visitors.
20. Ultimately, advertising of Hawaii as visitor destination must be abandoned.However defunding the HTA will not resolve the problem as
the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau and other private sources will undoubtedly continue this promotion supported by financing from
within the multi-billion dollar`visitor industry'. HVB touted 7 million visitors in 1990,eight years before becoming publicly funded by the
newly created HTA.
21. Another approach could be modification of a modest proposal placed before legislature last year by Representative Lowen of a$20
`green fee' applied to the TAT of each Hawaii visitor.This$20 Transient Accommodations `Green Fee' should become a night fee. This
$20 nim fee could be raised or lowered by$5 to$10 each year to achieve visitor numbers at the `desirable level'.The HTA reports the
average'visitor spends$1800 on their Hawaii visit. For a ten day visit, an extra$200 is unlikely to dissuade many from traveling here.The
yearly$142 billion in revenue could help fund Hawai'i's climate resiliency efforts,including the huge problem of destination Waikiki and
sea level rise.
22. In the view of this examiner,the ideal body to make judgment of the desirable number of yearly visitors is the State Climate
Commission.Composition,20 members:Directors of the State DLNR, Office of Planning,DBEDT,HTA,Board of Agriculture,OHA,
Hawaiian Homes,Dept.of Transportation, Dept.of Health and Board of Education;the four County Planning Directors;the House&Senate
Water&Land Committee Chairs;the House&Senate Environment Committee Chairs;the Adjutant General and Coastal Zone Management
director.That body would have the authority and access to accept testimony from a diverse range of sources. Of course,ultimate authority
rests with the Governor and Legislature.
Mahalo for your consideration
Tawn Keeney MD
2