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LARRY WOOD leoredivood222(a gmail.com
OBSERVATIONS ON WORLD-WIDE GEOTHERMAL FOR
WAIKA/POWER 4 THE PEOPLE
Waika Consulting has recently launched a public campaign promoting development of new
geothermal areas in the Hawaiian Islands. Much of the focus of this promotional campaign has
been on justifying dozens to hundreds of wells into potentially eruptive zones is a good thino
do, especially when considering future generations.. In doing so it makes many flawed
assumptions about the nature of geothermal energy production. They seem to accept at face
value the statement that geothermal energy is safe, reliabl6 and renewable. In the material tliai
follows I will show that none of those three assumptions is valid. My ideas are based on US:1_,1
government data and Internation Energy Association "IEA" data as published in several outl
on the web.
First, I want to talk about geothermal as a renewable energy source. In the .1970's intemationAa
political pressures and the rise of the environmental movement stimulated a large effort to reduce
dependence on petroleum products and other fossil fuels while transitioning into a renewable
energy supply. Three major sources of renewable energy received considerable interest and
government funding to develop renewable energy sources: wind, solar and geothermal. Prior to
1960, the only form of renewable energy in the United States was from water storage dams and
rivers. This source began in earnest in the 1930's and still is the largest source of renewable
energy. Geothermal energy expanded dramatically beginning around 1970 and experienced
significant growth until about 1990. Growth since 1990 has been a paltry 3% per year.
Solar energy and wind energy, on the other hand, have experienced exponential growth since
about the year 2000. Solar energy generation has increased at an annual rate of45% per year
since 2010, Wind energy began an exponential increase in the year 2000 and has increased at an
annual rate of 22%. These ideas are displayed below in Figure 1. What is immediately clear
from this graph is that both solar and wind energy have been and are still experiencing
exponential growth. Geothermal energy on the other hand, has a growth curve that could be
described as tepid, at best. Next, I will briefly explore some reasons for this very large
difference.
Probably the primary reason that geothermal energy has such a small growth rate is economic.
Geothermal plants require a large up -front investment, for both the necessary wells and
generating equipment as well as connections to the existing utility lines. Most individual plants
have seen production decrease within several years after the opening of the plant. This decrease
continues until new wells are drilled or other remedial actions are taken.
By now there has been significant experimentation all over the world for fifty years, as the graph
shows it is readily apparent that there has been little improvement as a result of these efforts.
Potential investors have rightly seen that there is much economic uncertainty with regard to
return on investment in geothermal projects, yet the Waika Consulting group is placing great
faith in a form of energy which has yet to reach anywhere near its supposedly glorious potential.
I suggest that investment in Hawaii be into solar and wind renewable energy projects, that would
be a much wiser investment for Hawaii's future.
Comm. N
Ref. To:
Ref. Date_'_ - 8 207
WORLD RENEWABLE ENERGY ELECTRICITY GENERATION (.MWe)
(with Hydrothermal and Projected Totals to 2028).
-HYDRO -SOLARPV -WIND ®GEorHER14AL -SOLARTHERMAL -TIDE WAVE
700000.00....... ..... ................. ..._............... ...,,....... ,........
500000.00
4C )000.00
3DD000M
200000.00 -
209090,00
0.00
19.40 1935 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure 1— Comparison of Wind, Solar and Geothermal growth in the United States
1990-2022
Another reason for the slow growth of geothermal energy is the relatively sparse occurrence of
all the features necessary for building the plant. Throughout the world there have been over 600
geothermal projects which have been developed and are currently operating. Most of the plants
which have been started have never reached the potential they were designed for. In fact, there
have been only a handful of plants throughout the world that have reached their capacity. One of
these is indeed the Waireiki plant in New Zealand. It will be retired in 2027, after almost 70
years of reliable power generation. Three other geothermal plants in the same area have been
placed into operation in a cooperative agreement with the Tauro people. So, this is a positive
development. However, such areas are rare on the earth. They require a combination of
abundant heat, abundant water and stable but porous rocks. The original three geothermal plants
in the world were all located in already existing resort areas devoted to hot springs and related
activities. The likelihood of finding a similarly well -endowed area is very small anywhere, but
especially in Hawaii.
The landscape and geological structure of the Hawaiian Islands is almost unique in the world.
The rocks in these islands are among the youngest in the world, and this is particularly true on
the Big Island. All of the land on the Big Island is less than I million years old, a bare infant in
geological time. It is weak and easily broken. While the people at Waika Consulting would like
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to distance themselves as much as possible from the practices of Ormat-owned Puna Geothemral
Venture, the basic environment that any new plant would operate in anywhere in Hawaii would
be quite similar to those experienced at PGV.
From the beginning PGV was plagued with intermittent and long-lasting outages and below
contract output. This has persisted throughout its 33-year history. It is located in probably the
most favorable location for geothermal development anywhere in the Hawaiian Islands. The
graph below shows PGV's yearly average output since, it's beginning in 1993. It has been 7
years now since the 2018 eruption, PGV is still struggling to reach 30MW, 25% below it's
contracted output of 38MW. Believing that a successful geothermal plant could be constructed
anywhere on the Big Island is wishful thinking, easy to do with taxpayer money, not personal
money at stake.
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30
2s
20
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Yearly PGV Power Output (MWe)
1988 1993 1998 Z913 2008 2013 2018 202,3
Figure 2 — PGV yearly output (Megawatt equivalent) (1988-89 HGP-A)
In one of it's brochures, Waika Consulting seriously suggested making geothermal the firm basis
of power for the Big Island. As Figure 2 shows, PGV's output does not resemble a reliable
baseline power source. and currently as of May 2025, their output has fallen to 16.9MW.
Waika seems to blame PGV's owner, Ormat, as somehow responsible for this sporadic
performance. This would be quite surprising in view of the fact that Ormat is the preeminent
developer of geothermal power in the world. Ormat is among the 4 largest manufacturers of
geothermal turbines in the world. The number of plants in the world that Ormat owns is larger
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than that of any other company in the world, by a large margin. If anyone has advanced
knowledge in the field, it would be Ormat.
Another point which Waika seems to feel is important is that solar power is variable. Of course,
this is indisputable since we all know that the sun is below the horizon about 12- hours a day, and
clouds and low sun angles also occur. Truth be told, solar panels generally produce 20-30% of
their rated capacity, with a strong yearly, as well as daily, variations. While small variations
occur, these variations have a well-known expected pattern with expected deviations due to
weather events. This means that these variations are well-known and can be accounted for in
advance by increasing the number of solar panels in any array. This gives solar a much more
dependable production relative to geothermal, where eruptive events and other problems can lead
to outages lasting years.
The daily variation of solar output is a problem that has been largely solved already by the solar
industry, coupling a battery array with 4 or 8 hours of storage eliminates the daily variation
problem with solar. Yearly and weather variations must be compensated for by installing more
panels for the same expected output. This only increases the required number of panels for a
given number of megawatt output by a small amount.
Hawaii's annual solar usage pattern is also very favorable for solar as a primary renewable
resource. Hawaii's electrical energy usage peaks in the summers with minimum usage in the
winter, thus the yearly solar variation is well -matched to Hawaii's needs.
DATED: 7/7/2025 s/s Larry Wood
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