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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0372.062 2024-2026 1►tyGik HEATHER L. KIMBALL ����' •�+�, Phone: (808)961-8828 Council District 1 (North Hilo, r Fax: (808)961-8912 �; y* Email: HeatheY.Kirrzball(a-Jzawaiieo ,?—v.gov_ Hdmakua, and portion of Waimea) - tr'OF'N�. HAWAI`I COUNTY COUNCIL 25 Aupuni Street, Ste. 1402. Hilo, Hawai'i 96720 DATE: October 27, 2025 TO: Dr. Holeka Goro Inaba, Council Chair and Members of the Hawaii County Council FROM: Heather L. Kimball, Council Member `W Council District 1 SUBJECT: Relevant content to Bill No. 66, Draft 2 The attached document provides a summary of the scenario planning process undertaken by the Department of Planning as part of the General Plan Comprehensive Review. This document is for reference purposes only and the original source documents can be found within Laserfiche at: PublicDocuments\Planning Department\General Plan\2015 Comp Update\GP/CDP Meetings. Should you have any questions or concerns regarding this communication,please do not hesitate to contact me. Thank you. HLK:dbk Att. : , Dale T Hawai`i County is an Equal Opportunity Provider and Employer. Hawaii County General Plan Scenario Planning Summary 10/26/2025 Overview of Scenario Planning Effort The County of Hawai'i's Scenario Planning Program was a decade-long analytical and community-driven process designed to modernize the County's General Plan,which guides long-term decisions about growth,infrastructure,conservation,and land use.The initiative sought to bridge data science and public participation to better understand how different development patterns could shape the island's future. Beginning in 2015,the Planning Department engaged Placeways,followed by City Explained,Inc.and later Focused Planning Solutions,LLC,to develop an integrated modeling system capable of simulating multiple"what-if'futures.These efforts built on the County's Community Development Plans (CDPs)—localized plans for H5mdkua,Puna,Ka'fi, North and South Kohala,and Kona—and combined them into a single framework that could test regional priorities against island-wide sustainability and infrastructure objectives. Purpose and Objectives Scenario planning had five goals: 1.Integrate data and policy frameworks,including LUPAG (Land Use Pattern Allocation Guide),zoning,infrastructure,hazards,and CDP policies into one analytical system. 2.Explore alternative growth patterns under consistent population and employment forecasts. 3.Quantify trade-offs among agricultural protection,compact growth,hazard avoidance, infrastructure cost,and environmental conservation. 4.Provide transparency and measurability through quantitative indicators accessible to policymakers and the public. S.Inform the updated General Plan Land Use (GPLU)the forward-looking land use map for the County's 2045 planning horizon. Timeline and Evolution 2015-2016:Base and Capacity Technical Reports established existing conditions and theoretical development potential. 2016:Trend and Alternative Future Scenarios simulated growth to 2040,testing differing land use concepts (status quo trends,compact urban growth,agricultural protection,and CDP-based local growth). 2018: Indicators Modeling Report defined 220+performance metrics in 15 thematic categories to form the"Scenario Report Card." 2020: City Explained refined datasets and developed Conservation and Urban Scores to spatially balance growth potential with resource protection. 2024:Focused Planning Solutions integrated all prior technical work into a unified methodology for the General Plan 2045 Land Use Map,completing the analytical cycle. Analytical Framework The technical studies were organized into a three-tier analytical model: -Tier I (Exploratory): Simplified visualizations used in staff and community workshops to explore general growth directions. -Tier 2 (Comprehensive): The full CommunityViz model housing 220+ indicators,land capacity data,and forecasted growth allocation to quantify outcomes for each scenario. -Tier 3 (Methodological):Tools and data structures enabling periodic model updates as new parcel,infrastructure,or hazard data became available. Key Outcome The cumulative process produced data-driven local planning effort for Hawai'i County.It demonstrated that growth concentrated near existing infrastructure and urban centers minimizes fiscal and environmental costs,while preserving agricultural and conservation lands aligns best with the County's sustainability goals.Scenario planning also established an ongoing decision-support framework—ensuring that policy revisions can be evidence- based transparent,and adaptable to future conditions. Scenarios Reviewed Reference and Base Scenarios: -Base Scenario (2015): Documented existing conditions across housing,employment,and land use using Real Property Tax(RPT),U.S.Census,and County GIS data. -Capacity Scenario(2015): Represented theoretical"build-out"potential under existing zoning and environmental constraints. Trend Scenarios: -Trend Scenario (2016): Simulated growth to 2040 assuming continuation of historic development trends using desirability surfaces weighted by infrastructure proximity,slope, existing urbanization,and market activity. -LUPAG Trend Scenario:Applied the same growth forecast but used the County's LUPAG designations instead of zoning capacity,testing policy alignment with realistic market behavior. Alternative Future Scenarios: -CDP Scenario: Implemented community-specific growth concepts from adopted CDPs. -Agriculture Preservation Scenario:Restricted development in high-value agricultural and pastoral lands. -Priority Development Zone (PDZ) Scenario: Focused growth in existing infrastructure corridors,encouraging compact,walkable urban centers. Each scenario used identical population and employment forecasts,differing only in spatial rules for growth allocation.In 2020-2024 City Explained and Focused Planning Solutions updated data inputs,hazard and conservation mapping,and public feedback through Urban and Conservation Scores,guiding the final General Plan Land Use (GPLU) designations. Methods and Modeling Approaches Scenario modeling combined quantitative allocation algorithms with policy-driven calibration using CommunityViz Allocator 5.The model estimated location and magnitude of new development through a repeatable,rule-based process. Model Inputs: 1.Growth Amounts: Population,household,and employment forecasts from SMS Research (2015). 2.Capacity:Development potential based on zoning,LUPAG designations,and environmental/infrastructure constraints. 3.Desirability:A spatial heat map quantifying attractiveness of parcels for development. Data and Calibration: -Baseline Verification using RPT and aerial imagery. -Historical Calibration against 2004-2015 growth. -Constraint Layers included hazard zones and infrastructure limits. -Randomization&Policy Overrides simulated market dynamics and community policies. Evaluation and Visualization: Each scenario was visualized with GIS maps and evaluated through a Scenario Report Card that compiled indicator results into side-by-side comparisons.By 2024,these methods were codified in the Technical Methodology for General Plan Land Use. Metrics and Findings Indicator Framework: The Indicators Modeling Report(2018).introduced 220+indicators across 15 thematic categories for evaluating scenarios at multiple scales and timeframes. Key Categories: -Conservation&Hazards:habitat,floodplain,volcanic risk,sea level rise. -Infrastructure&Services:water,wastewater,waste,emergency response. -Mobility&Access: congestion,transit access,proximity to parks. -Housing&Land Use: density,affordability,vacant lots,'ohana units. -Economic Development:floor area,jobs-housing balance. -Energy&Resources:household energy and water use. High-Level Findings: -Agriculture Preservation best protected farmland but limited housing. -PDZ Scenario optimized infrastructure efficiency and reduced costs. -CDP Scenario supported local identity but varied in density outcomes. -Trend/LUPAG Scenarios led to higher costs and greater hazard exposure. Scenario Reports Year Title&Author(s) Organization Summary 2015 Base Scenario Technical Placeways Defines existing land use,housing, Report-Ian Varley and employment conditions; establishes analytical baseline. 2015 Capacity Technical Report Placeways Calculates theoretical build-out -Placeways potential under zoning and environmental constraints. 2016 Trend Scenario&Land Placeways Projects 2040 growth using Use Allocation-DeBay, desirability-based allocation; Varley,Walker establishes Trend baseline. 2016 Alternative Future Placeways Defines CDP,Agricultural,and PDZ Scenarios-DeBay, alternatives; compares growth Walker,Varley patterns and outcomes. 2018 Indicators Modeling Placeways Introduces 220+indicators for Report-DeBay,Varley conservation,infrastructure, mobility,housing,and economy. 2020 Existing Conditions, City Explained Updates land use and zoning data; Zoning&LUPAG Densities aligns density assumptions with -City Explained LUPAG categories. 2020 Future Land Use City Explained Documents integration of CDP maps Methodology-Ian Varley and state land use policy into updated future land use system. 2020 Conservation and Urban City Explained Develops spatial scoring for Scores-Bethany conservation and urban suitability to Morrison guide land use balance. 2024 Technical Methodology Focused Synthesizes all studies and public for General Plan Land Use Planning feedback;final framework for -Amy DeBay Solutions General Plan 2045 land use designations. Supplemental: SMS Research&Marketing Services reports (2022) General Plan Comprehensive Review: Trends&Forecasts Final Report and Key Findings Report. Purpose and Context The Trends &Forecasts Final Report and Key Findings Report (both prepared by SMS Research&Marketing Services, Inc. in October 2022) were commissioned as part of the General Plan Comprehensive Review to establish a data foundation for land use,infrastructure,housing,and economic policy decisions through 2045. These reports provide the quantitative backbone for understanding demographic and economic dynamics in Hawaii County and for calibrating future land use models such as those used in the County's scenario planning process. Both reports utilize historic data from 1990-2020 and project to 2045,integrating State of Hawaii DBEDT population and employment forecasts with County-level data on housing,labor force,income,visitor activity, and real estate markets. Forecasts are organized by 13 Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZs),covering all major regional communities from North Kohala to KaTi. Population Growth and Structure The County's resident population was approximately 203,000 in 2020 and is projected to reach about 273,000 by 2045,a 35% increase. Population growth is decelerating,dropping from historic highs of 2.3%annually in the 1990s-2000s to roughly 0.9% per year through 2045. De facto population,including visitors,is expected to increase from 213,000 in 2018 to 311,000 by 2045,reflecting a 46%total rise in the combined resident-visitor count. Nearly one-quarter of residents by 2045 will be aged 65 or older,signaling a rapidly aging population with implications for healthcare,workforce participation,and senior housing. Migration drives growth: roughly 90% of annual population growth results from net in-migration,as natural increase (births minus deaths) remains modest. Population distribution remains predominantly rural,only about 40%of residents live in three urban areas (Hilo,Kona,and Waikoloa),and density remains low compared to Honolulu (1,488 persons per square mile in urban areas vs. 5,556 on 0'ahu). Economic Trends Job growth parallels population growth,with an average annual rate of 1.4%since 2005,expected to continue at a similar but slightly declining rate through 2045. The service sector dominates employment,about 85%of all jobs are in services, including tourism,education,and health care. The top five projected growth sectors through 2045 are: Educational and health services Business and professional services Eating and drinking establishments Construction Government and retail trade. Median household income rose to $65,401 in 2020 and is projected to reach $89,600 by 2045,though the rate of increase lags behind the cost of living. The poverty rate remains high, 14%in 2020,while the self-sufficiency income standard (for a family of four with one preschooler and one school-age child) was $74,030,requiring a combined hourly wage of$35.05,well above state and federal thresholds. Overall,economic self-sufficiency remains out of reach for many households, despite steady employment growth. Housing and Real Estate Total housing stock reached about 90,500 units in 2020 and is projected to grow to 105,500 units by 2045. 82%of housing units are single-family dwellings,a share that is expected to remain stable without new policy interventions represent roughly two-thirds of all occupied housing,a ratio expected to continue through 2045. Vacancy rates, including short-term vacation rentals (STVRs),remain a significant planning concern; efforts to regulate STVRs are expected to gradually reduce the number of vacant nonresident units . Affordability: about 43%of housing units were unaffordable in 2020,and more than 40%of households are "shelter burdened" spending over 30%of income on housing. Overcrowding persists,particularly in KaTi,Waimea,South Kona,and Upper Puna, with rates above 10%. Affordable housing is most available in Puna, Hilo,and North Kona,which together account for about 70% of all affordable units. Forecasted Housing Growth by Region (2020-2045) Fastest growth: Hawaiian Paradise Park-Orchidland (+56%),Waimea (+52%), Kea'au-Kurtistown (+45%),Ka'a (+42%). Slowest or negative growth: North Hilo-Hdmdkua Villages (-1.6%),Hilo (+20%). Visitor Industry and De Facto Population Visitor arrivals are projected to increase to about 2.6 million by 2045. The number of visitor accommodation units will grow proportionally,though the composition is shifting from hotels toward short-term vacation rentals. North Kona and Waikoloa remain the centers of visitor activity,while Lower Puna has seen rapid growth in vacation rentals. The rise in visitor units and arrivals has implications for infrastructure capacity, housing supply,and community balance in resort-adjacent areas. Implications for Planning Aging Population: Demand for senior housing,accessible infrastructure,and health services will increase significantly. Economic Structure: Continued reliance on lower-wage service sectors may constrain affordability and self-sufficiency. Housing Supply and Cost: Persistent housing cost burdens underscore the need for mixed-income and infill development strategies. Spatial Inequities: Rural areas like Ka'a and Puna face continued challenges with overcrowding,affordability,and limited infrastructure. Growth Distribution: Strong regional variation in growth rates supports differentiated land use policies that align infrastructure investment with realistic growth potential. Visitor Pressures: Expanding de facto population heightens the importance of managing short-term rentals and ensuring adequate infrastructure capacity in high- tourism zones. Methodological Notes Forecast Sources: The projections are primarily based on DBEDT's 2045 forecasts, adjusted with empirical 2020 Census data and SMS midline forecasts,which are approximately 3%lower than DBEDT's estimates to reflect updated population realities. Forecast Variables: Include resident and de facto population,households,housing stock, employment,income,visitor arrivals,and commercial/industrial space. The SMS data feed directly into the County's CommunityViz scenario models, supporting the 2024 Technical Methodology for General Plan Land Use. Report Author iYear Focus �Key Contributions General Plan SMS Full dataset and Establishes countywide Comprehensive Research& projections for and FAZ-level forecasts Review-Trends & Marketing 2022 population, to guide land use, Forecasts Final Services, economy,housing, infrastructure,and Report Inc. and visitor sectors housing policy to 2045. modeling. Executive Distills forecast data SMS summary of into policy-relevant General Plan Research & demographic, insights,highlighting Comprehensive Marketing 2022 housing,and rural character,aging Review-Key Services, economic trends demographics,housing Findings cost burdens,and Inc. for planners and regional growth policymakers. disparities.