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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0728.038 2000-2002 To: County of I~awaii Councilpersons From: Gus lgrocksen Kona Farmers Alliance -Steering Committee Chair Date: September 25, 2002 d'9me.----- ay-~- :7 Re: Testimony on Res. 236-02 introduced by Nancy Pisicchio tau^ry Subject: Economic I~istory of Kona Coffee, Economic Effects of a Recent Price Disaster and a Projection of a Potential Disaster Caused by Permanent Loss of Markets Kona Coffee is an economic mainstay in the State of Hawaii, and has been for well over a hundred years. Our state's history, and that of Kona, abounds with stories and lessons we have learned from the past regarding the coffee industry. Only beginning in 1946 have accurate statistics been kept on coffee production and marketings by Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service (HASS). It is primarily from these statistics that our current testimony evolves. We see from the first page of attachments that in 1946 there were 700 coffee farms in Kona on 3,300 harvested acres producing the equivalent of $1,535,000 of parchment coffee. Since parchment is an intermediate stage between coffee cherry and green (roastable) coffee, we can easily extrapolate that the approximate value of the green coffee was $2,425,000. Kona coffee in 1946 had considerable reputation as a great coffee, but its primary use was to "mask" or "soften" otherwise harsh tasting coffees in blends. Kona coffee was considered as part of the vast coffee commodity market. Fast forward to the early 1980's. During this time many new faces appeared in Kona, and a transition began from the commodity market to what would become known as the "specialty" coffee market. Marketing of Kona as a 100% product in roasted form began in earnest with the opening of many new processing mills, and many new entrepreneurs. Kona coffee's reputation as one of the world's finest coffees was growing and the sale of green coffee to specialty roasting markets grew with it. The number of coffee farms began to rise, as did the number of harvested acres. The value of Kona coffee in this new niche more than doubled from its heyday during the commodity era on 40% fewer harvested acres. Then something strange occurred, a bubble of sorts, when farm prices for cherry doubled and the value of green increased over a six year period by almost $10,000,000. The cause of the bubble became apparent during the 1989-1990 season. The sale of one of the largest p~~sso~ in Kona n'i. Qm ;bile No. ; , ~ l~f. I3ate~~~ had revealed a huge unsold inventory of their green coffee. Estimates of the excess inventory, the exact amount remains unknown, was thought to be in the range of 20% to 50% of existing green supplies. Because of that catastrophic problem of excess inventory, the bottom fell out for Kona farmers and processors. Over the next three seasons, the number of farms decreased almost 10%, cherry prices decreased 48%, parchment and green prices fell a precipitous 70%. A recovery occurred only because a market remained for our high quality coffee, and the excess inventory was finally sold out. Fast forward again to today's Kona coffee situation. After the bottom in 1992-1993, prices for cherry, parchment and green are stabilizing and maintaining a steady increase. New plantings and harvested acres are increasing. The Kona coffee market is very healthy. So what is there to worry about? Simply stated, it is keeping Kona Kona. A more comprehensive statement would read that in order to protect the specialty market for Kona coffee and its reputation as a heritage coffee, no genetically modified coffee should be brought into the districts of North and South Kona at this time. So we get to the purpose of my dissertation, and that is to post a warning in front of this body for serious consideration. The warning is this simple -should GM coffee be introduced into Kona (not Kau, not Kauai, not Molokai or Puna) -the bottom will most certainly fall out of the Kona coffee market. But this time it will not be able to recover as it did after the 1989-1990 disaster. Because of GM food labeling laws (and many other pending laws) in Japan, Europe and a rapidly growing segment of the mainland US, should Kona heritage coffee become tainted by release of GM coffee stock plantings, our market will most certainly tank. Presently the export of green coffee to Japan and Europe is conservatively estimated to be in the 15% to 25% range. US mainland sales to customers very concerned about GM food products, particularly the organic market, could account for an additional 5% to 10% of sales. Roasted 100% Kona coffee presently shipping from the many micro-roasters here in Kona, is a rapidly growing market that has not even been considered in the projections. Could the Kona coffee market, last season at $20,000,000, take an initial hit of $3,000,000 to $7,000,000 when word first gets out about GM tainted Kona coffee? The answer is obviously no. The history of the 1989-1990 bubble and burst is the lesson we learned and how it is applied here. But this time there is no way to overcome a permanent market loss. It will not be temporary, and it will not be able to be worked through. The first thing that will happen is a significant decrease in green sales, followed closely by a green price reduction to clear out inventory. In order to support a significantly lower green price, cherry price paid by processors will fall to new lows. That will be followed by a dramatic reduction in harvested acres, and an end to Kona coffee as we know it. Accompanying the fall of Kona coffee will be the elimination of the currently expanding Kona coffee related agritourism business and the Kona Coffee Cultural Festival along with it. Can the economy of Kona withstand the permanent loss ofmulti-millions of dollars, increased unemployment, a severe drop in tax revenues and property values? The answer is an emphatic NO. This is why, as the representative of the Kona Farmers Alliance who can easily see the writing on the wall, I support resolution 236-02. We strongly urge the members of the Hawaii County Council who voted against this resolution in committee to reconsider their original votes and vote for it now. We urge the two Councilpersons who have not yet voted on this resolution to support it now. Respectfully submitted, Gus Brocksen Kona Farmers Alliance, Steering Committee Chair Attachments: Coffee Statistics: 1946 - 1992. HASS, September, 1993 Hawaii Coffee Biannual Report for 1991-1992 season. HASS, September 10, 1992 Coffee Statistics: 1992 - 1997. HASS, August 12, 1997 Coffee Statistics: 1997 - 2002. HASS, September, 2002 Graphs: 1983 - 2002 Kona Farms Kona Harvested Acres Kona Cherry Price / lb Kona Parchment Value Kona Green Value ••........+av. ~~m„~yY,-,I vt tat+++a, mu+cm~~l rlt;;lU, 111C111~CilltL~e7! IQilll ~J1iliCti, le~flil Yi11U~, and graer4 production, 1946-9~ Acreage 1 Farm prices Value ~f Green Season' Farms Yeld2 Markelings' sales roductian fn crop Harvested Cherry Parchment All { i p - ~ 1.000 7,000 Number Acres - 7,000 pounds- Genrs per povnd~--- dollars pavnds State cif Hawaii 1946-47............ 700 3,380 3,380 2.6 8,625 17.8 1,535 1947-48........._.. ?00 3,38D 3,380 2,fi 8,738 18.5 1,617 194849............ 700 3,380 3,380 2.2 7,375 19.6 1,446 1949-50 703 3,400 3, 380 1.6 5,375 31,1 1, 672 1950-51............ 700 3,450 3,380 2.8 9,375 36.9 3,459 1951-52.........,.. 705 3,500 3,400 2.8 9,625 38.0 3,658 1952-53............ 705 3,550 3,450 3.0 10,288 38.2 3,930 1953-54....,......, 706 3,750 3,500 3.0 10,330 46.5 4,803 1954-55............ 712 4,970 3,550 3.5 12,425 45.8 5,666 1955-56 , . 906 5,130 3,750 2.9 10, 872 46.0 5, 00 i 1956-57......,...,,1 $76 5,760 4,860 2.3 11,136 50.4 5,613 1957-58............ 994 fi,530 5,010 3.7 18,496 35.4 6,548 1958-59,_........,. 1,151 6,790 5,740 1,9 10,634 27,8 2,961 1959-60............ 1,160 6,190 5,900 2.2 12,999 26,8 3,486 1960-61............ 1,128 5,500 S,soa 2.4 13,272 24.1 3,202 19fi1-62....,...:... 1,028 5,160 5,160 1.6 8,432 22,4 1,866 1962-63,........... 964 4,810 4,810 2.8 13,392 22.3 2,985 1963-64.....,,..,,,1 854 4,710 4,710 i.4 6,651 26.2 1,744 1964.65............ 860 4,700 3,900 2.6 9,947 30.4 3,425 1965-66............ 850 4,700 3,800 2.0 7,500 31.5 2,362 1966-67.....,,...., 844 4,600 3,700 2.2 8,040 25.6 2,058 1967-68............ 830 4,600 3,500 1.6 5,440 27.1 1,474 1968-69............ 800 4,400 3,200 1.8 5,700 25.8 1,471 19G9-70............ 770 4,300 2,900 1.4 4,130 35.5 1,466 1970-71.,,....,.... 750 3,900 2,700 1.6 4,300 33.7 1,449 1971-72.,..,....... 750 3,400 2,400 1.2 2,930 34.6 1,014 1972-73 770 2,900 2,400 1, 5 3,640 50.4 1, $SS 1973-74............ 770 2,900 2,500 1,2 3,040 56,3 1,711 1974-75............ 760 2,900 2,500 0.6 1,540 46.4 714 1975-76....,.,..... 780 2,400 2,000 0.9 1,860 75.2 1,399 197G-77............ 7$0 2,400 2,000 1.1 2,120 185.0 3,922 1977-78..........,. 780 x,400 2,000 i.i 2,270 138.0 3,133 1978-79.,.,.,,,,,.. 750 2,300 1,900 0.9 1,fi80 126.0 2,117 1979-80,,,,,..,.,.. 700 2,100 1,800 1,2 2,190 145,0 3,132 1980-81............ 650 1,900 1,700 0.8 1,440 160.0 2,304 1981-82..........,. 625 1,800 1,700 1.3 2,210 200.0 4,420 1982-63.........,., 620 2,000 1,900 0.5 990 51,0 240.0 215.0 2,129 1983-84............ 614 2,000 1,800 1.6 2,800 53.0 260.0 225.0 6,300 1984-85.,...,...... 615 2,000 1,700 1.0 1,750 65.0 300.0 275.0 4,813 1985-86,.....,..... 620 2,100 1,650 1,1 1,850 67.0 315.0 280.0 5,180 1,500 1986-87............ 620 2,300 2,000 1.5 3,000 67.0 305.0 290.0 8,700 2,400 1987-88,.,.,.....,. 630 2,400 2,060 0.9 1,800 fi1,0 300.0 270.0 4,860 1,400 1988-88............ 635 2,600 2,150 0.9 2,000 74.0 400.0 330.0 6,600 1,600 1989-90............ 635 3,000 2,300 1,4 3,200 83.0 430.0 390.0 12,480 2,500 1990-91...,........ 630 x,300 2,400 1.2 2,800 66.0 275,0 270.0 7,560 2,300 State of Fiavvail- excludes Island ~f Kaual 1991-92.....,....., fi15 2,300 1,700 1.4 .2,300 45.0 2f 0.0 200.0 4,600 1.900 1992-93............ 600 2,700 1,600 i.i 1,600 48.0 270,0 210.0 3,780 1,400 t Coffee harvesting occurs throughout th®year in Fdaasaii. Th® matte harvmat normelty Ts®9ins in September end esctarsds t® the catty psK ®t th® totlaa~- ing year, 2 Avarago yields ba.:ed oa p~mrehmoat oqufvaslaat rnarkatings cad honrostod nereega. ~ F~cpraaasod On pasrchresant ®gaaive9®rst pounds. C®~~ rttarka3tad In cherry form wan conyerfatid to asrt eauival®rtt parchment taalght cad added to parchment marketiags. ~ Ropr®ss~ntsa ctrl e~®nsge farm prie® 4or patrehment cquivefent sales. Qb8ais7s3d by dividing terns revenues 4rom the sale Crf cherry and parehmaM cotF~ by 4otal rnarka:~lings (~rchm®eot ~garavatserlt bFga;a). Hawaii Co~tear Sa~]Yari'fb~r 1993, Page 3 } i~in~~ai r~p~r~ ~f ~~r~~~~, frrr~ gari~~~, pre ~~,acti~rt, nth #~rrt~ v~[u~. j ~ FREQUENCY: ,lanuary & September _ ~SLF~4SE: September 10, 1992 b IMPpRTANT 11rpTL Estirraates cance~nirt~ flee 199Y-92 ca~ee season excludes the isla~td of l~auai to avoid flee disclosure of an individual aperatia~t. r~ r ~ ~ ~rl~~ ~r~p The Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service (FiASS) fine! estimate of the 1991-92 coffee crop (excluding Kauai) is 2.3 million pounds (parchment ~ ~Wy~~r ~W basis). A direct comparison with the previous season is not possible since Kauai is excluded from this season's estimate. The majority of this season's output was produced in the Kona district of Hawaii island where farmers .liaside: reported that less than ideal weather (abnormal rainfall pattern) and rela- tively bw farm prices adversely affected the harvest. ~ 1941-42 seosott srati.stics... 1=arm prices averaged $2.00 per pound on a parchment taasis during the page Z 1991-92 season, the lowest farm price in ~ 0 seasons. With prices for cherry ~ Outlook for 1492-93 sea- coffee (the most commonly sold form) averaging 45.0 cents per pound, ~ some farmers made an economic decision not to pick any coffee this so~i... page season. lvxcess stocks of Kona coffee and depress®d prices for competing ~ 46 yenrs of cof,~'ee statrs- coffees on the world coffee market (see World Coffee Situation story an tics... page 3 page 4) were major reasons for Hawaii farm prices declining fat the second ~ World coffee siruario~t ca,~- consecutiv® season. date page 4 Acreage devoted to coffee is es#imated st 2,300 acres (excludes Kauai) for the f 991-92 season. New plantings were recorded in the Kona district of Hawaii island, but the majority of new plantings during 1991 occurred on Molokai and Maui. Q ~ - CGFF~E: 5easan-average tarrri prices, Stste ®f i~9awall, 1972.91. Y: ~ ,.'CA,`TIS°t'iGSr < u r S PETa POUND .Y~ 4, h,x.~.~ti1 ~ mow'... :,.:.SA;. ;`,{.,;.:..Ni,•."C~" "<i~S #X /r ifi3'4'4o-~ss i,"hy>> f 1'~"`s, t ; a { t E E ~ %~%~il ~k; ~l~?~~~r YJ F 4 Alt t F i~L~NOGtiGiJ; Y3t 9G823,'cT3.~ " ~ Parchment price . i1978~a~& s.a - _ I A!I price k A ~ 3 (P~rthment egvivelent prlcel $~4C3lVf~~ ~ F1~J~ifL~l~ t ~ S$~h~eoc~xttu[~l ~a'c~~~lats~ 2A %'2)w p ~ ytt k~~p~ f £ iI V.I~S/i Y1!~~Wlid'~ ? i r i € ~esess+dsSlat~fic,~'*t 1.0 Cherry price j t t k ~ y~ u: ~ x i3~wettyn 5s3~iiSct HsNs!~a+a` flanapi~da~til€Q~.~.su~.:~oloks'~ Land. 0.0 ~ Jt~n~ C?ker~ura C1a~u, iCsuar > , _ ~ 1972 1974 1976 7978 1980 1982 1984 198b 1988 1990 < ~Ve~+d~1lAti 4ahc~ HASS _ ~eeg~,1$e~.s a°O~~saa~A~~ +7~~~I~~ibA~• ~®FF~E: Number of farms, acreage, yield, r~arketings, price, artd value. State of 9~awaii, 1982-91 Acreage Farm prices Value at Green Seaso~ f==:~rrtis Yefd 2 Markeiings•~ ^ In crcp Harvested Cherry Parchment All" ~A1eS Aroducti®n - t, o0o t, o00 ~'::'-ber Aces -i,o00pounda---~ Gams perpouno-R.~~ dollars pounds 19$2-83........,.,. 620 2,000 1,900 0.5 990 51.0 240.0 215.0 2,129 1983-84 .............i ~s1C 2,000 1,81~{~ 1.6 2,800 53.0 260.0 225.0 6,300 19$4-85 61S 2,000 1,700 1.0 1,750 65.0 3pQ.0 275.0 4,813 1885-86..,,.........; 620 2,104 1,650 i.i 1,850 fi7A 315.0 280.0 5,180 1,500 1986-87 .............E 6;~C 2,300 2,000 1.5 3,b00 67.0 305.0 290.0 8,700 2,400 1987-88 630 2,400 2,OSQ 0.9 1,800 6i.0 300.q 270.0 4,860 1,400 i98&89 5,i5 2,600 2,150 0.9 , 2,000 74.0 400.0 330.0 6,600 1,600 1989-90 535 3,000 2,300 1.4 3,200 93A 430,0 390.0 12,480 2,500 1990-91 63t) 5,300 2,400 1.2 2,800 66.0 275.0 270.0 7,560 2,300 1991-92 5... 615 2,300 1,700 1.4 2,300 45.0 260.0 200.0 4,600 1,900 + Coffee h:arvosting acc~rs ttiroughaut the year In Hawaii.lfte main ?tarv®at normally begins in September and extends to the eery pars of the faltowr- ingyear. 2Average yields based on parchtisent equivalent marketings and harvested acreage. 3 i~cpressed In parchment equroai'ent pounds. Calfeaa marketed in cherry lcrin was converted to an equivalent parchm®n4 weight and added to parchment marKOtl"gs. , Rrrpreserats an avs~rage faun price for parchment equivalent sales. Obtnlnad by dividing farrvl rever9t~s from the sale of sherry and perahrnent coNee by t~l rttarketinQs ~parchn4ant equivalent basis), 5 Excludes Kauai. C~~~I~k fir ~~9~ harvest than this past season, may aid plant vigor and help Substantial rains during June produce a larger 1993-94 crop. and Juiy are not expected to greatly affect the upcoming harvest, but it awaii coffee production {excluding Kauai) is expected to decrease during the Mbnthiy rairt6ail: Kait~aliu experiment Station, Kona, Nawaii 1992-93 season. Co##ee t992 . ~-year (19313) average production wil be dominated by farmers in the Kona area of p®"'~r°' Haavaii island and millers in that to region are expecting declines of 14 10 to 40 percent from the +x 1991-92 season. Drier than io normal conditions during the e crucial flowering period earlier tf~is year is the main reason ipr ° the expected downturn ir+ 4 _ output. However, cherry prices z are above that of a year aga o and millers are hoping this wiN JAN Fhb MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEp oC'r NOV b~C encourage a mare complete ?iess _ - Post-it° Fax Nate 7671 °at8 Pa985~ -~j Page 2, I~awau Coffee, Septe»a1~er X5792 T° ~ror Co./ t Oo. Phone # Phone # Fax # Fax # ® e ° ° a ° s previous season and the highest basis), up 2 percent from the 1996-97 season, down 6 percent amount in five seasons. Newiy previous high set last season. from the previous season. bearing acreage accounted for part Growers received higher prices for ®utput from Aolaui, Nlo/okai, of the increase, but stepped up both cherry ($1.05 per pound) and pal~u, Kauai tops activity in rejuvenating previously parchment ($5.50 per pound) ~ ~y//lion pounds unharvested acreage was also a coffee. Higher world coffee prices Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai factor. Strong farm prices in recent (see the chart on page 4) and had combined coffee production of seasons have spurred interest in strong demand for Kona coffee 4.1 million pounds (parchment harvesting all the coffee that is were credited with increasing and basis) for the 1996-97 season, up available. sustaining local farm prices. Farm 41 percent from the previous Farm prices averaged a record value for Big Island coffee is season. Unlike the Kona district on hi h $4.70 er ound Begged at $10.8 million for the g p p (parchment the Big Island, growers on these IHAWAII C®FFEI~: Number of farms, acreage, yield, marketings, price, and value by islands, 1992/93 - 1996/97, State of Hawaii Crop Acreage z s Farm prices Value of Green tr Farms Yield Marketings year In crop Harvested Cherry Parchment All sales production Number ---•---Acres------- -----1,000pounds----- -----Cents per pound----- $1,000 1,000pounds State 1992-93 600 7,000 4,000 0.6 2,400 170.0 4,080 1,900 1993-94 580 7,000 4,200 0.7 2,900 225.0 6,525 2,200 1994-95 585 6,800 4,400 1.0 "4,300 "280.0 12,040 3,400 1995-96 580 6,700 5,400 1.0 5,400 300.0 16,200 4,320 1996-97 560 6,900 5,700 1.1 6,400 325.0 20,800 5,000 l~alaaii 1992-93 594 1,980 1,530 1.2 1,790 48.0 270.0 206.0 3,687 1,420 1993-94 574 1,865 1,370 1.4 1,960 67.0 320.0 300.0 5,880 1,548 1994-95 575 1,820 1,425 " 1.5 2,100 95.0 " 475.0 " 400.0 " 8,400 1,640 1995-96 570 1,780 1,370 1.8 2,500 100.0 515.0 460.0 11,500 2,000 1996-97 550 1,960 1,620 1.4 2,300 105.0 550.0 470.0 10,810 1,850 Kauai 1992-93 1 4,330 2,370 0.2 580 54.0 318 455 1993-94 5' 6 5,135 2,830 0.3 940 " 68.6 645 562 1994-95 5' 10 4,980 2,975 0.7 2,200 "'165.0 3,640 1,760 1995-96 5' 10 4,920 4,030 0.7 2,900 "162.0 4,700 2,320 1996-97 10 4,940 4,080 1.0 4,100 243.0 9,990 3,150 NlauilliAolokai 1992-93 5 690 100 0.3 30 250.0 75 25 1993-94 u 1994-95 51 1995-96 sr 1 - 7 ~ Coffee harvesting occurs throughout the year in Hawaii. The main harvest normally begins in September and extends to the early part of the following year. ~ Average yields based on parchment equivalent marketings and harvested acreage.' Expressed in parchment equivalent pounds. Coffee marketed in cherry form was converted to an equivalent parchment weight and added to parchmen4 marketings (parchment equivalen4 basis}.' Revised. s Kauai, Maui, and Molokai combined to avoid disclosures of individual operations. ° Average Intematianal Coffee Organization price during October, November, and December on the New York Market (based on 1979 Intemational Coffee Agreement).' Weighted combination of farm prices and the average International Coffee Organization price during October, November, and December on the New Yortc Market (based on 1979 International Coffee Agreement). Page 2, Hawaii Coffee -August IZ, 1997, Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service. >Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service: Hawaii Coffee http://www.nass.usda.gov/hi/speccrop/coffee.htm Hawaii Coffee Statistics Number of farms, acreage, yield, marketings, price, and value by county, 1997/98 through 2001/02, State of 1-Iawaii . _ - - Count Acrea e ~ - ~ - ; ~ - y g Yield Marketin s~'- Farm prices ~ Value Green g - and crop Farms In ~ of year l~ crop Harvested; 3/ ICherry~~Parchment'All4~~ sales ~productioni Number Acres 1,000 pounds Cents per pound $1,000 j 1,000 pounds State 1997-98' 585! 7,00 5,800 1.6~~ 9,4001 :300.01 28,200 7,720 1998-99,; 610; 7,400 6,1001' 1.61; 9,500, '260.O~r24,70d 7,6001 ~ 1999/00 6501 7,700' 6,400 1.6i~ 10,000,E 210.0!' 21,004 8,100_. 2000/01 670 7,90@ 6,8001' 1.3 8,700, '265.0 23,OSS 7,000 2001/02 700;8,0001, 6,300~I 1.3i! 8,000 245.0 19,60 6,400 ~iHadvaii - 1997-981, 5751 2,49Q 1,900 1.5 ~ 2,850 :L ~570.0~1 16,246 2,300 J, 113 5.0 700.0' 1998-99' 600' 2,80{ 2,170j; 1.6, 3,5001 130,0'1 SOO.OIi460.0 16,101 2,800 1999/00 635 ~ 3,200 2,400, 1.2':' 3,000~~ 70.0'1 360.0~~310.01'~ 9,300, ~ 2,400 1 2000/Ol 650 3,35Q~ 2,700; 1.4 3,800~'~i 85.O~ 425.0~~400.0~~ 15,200'' 3,000 2001/02 675 3,43tl' 2,850 1.1;; 3,100 85.0'' 425.01 s/~~ st!~ ~ " 2,500 Kauai/Maui/Honolulu ~ ~ b/ 1997-98 10'~ 4,510 3,900: 1.7!1 6,550 ;183.OIL11,95~~ 5,4201 1998-99, 10'ij 4,60 3,930 1.5 6,0001 143.O~i 8,600' 4,800 1999/00 15 4,500 4,000~'~I 1.8~~, 7,000 167.Oi'~~ 11,70~1~ 5,7001 2000/01„ 20i'~ 4,SSQ~ 4 100 L _ I 1.1 4 900! :160.0 Ii 7,855 ' 4,000 I , s/I ~ 2001/02' 251 4'57 3 450 1 4 4 900 ~ s/'' 3,900 . 1 /Coffee harvesting occurs throughout the year in Hawaii. The main harvest normally begins in late summer and extends to the early part of the following year. 2/ Average yields based on parchment equivalent marketings and harvested acreage. 3/Expressed in parchment equivalent pounds. Coffee marketed in cherry form was converted to an equivalent parchment weight and added to parchment marketings. 4/ Represents an average farm price for parchment equivalent sales. Obtained by dividing farm revenues from the sale of cherry and parchment coffee by total marketings (parchment equivalent basis). 5/Not published to avoid disclosure of individual operations. 6/ Kauai, Maui, and Honolulu counties combined to avoid disclosure of individual operations. World Coffee Update Record production forecast World coffee production in 2002/03 is forecast at a record 122.1 million bags (60 kilograms or 132.276 pounds), up 10 percent from the previous year's level. Brazil's crop in 2002/03 is forecast at a record 46.9 million bags, up 39 percent, or 13.2 million bags from the previous year. Mainly as a result of the large Brazil crop, total supply in 2002/03 is forecast to reach 143.6 million bags, up 2 of S 9/23/2002 4:24 PM I I 193 ~ X002 6~0 i 660 t ,I 640 ~ _ - - . - i 620 600 5~0 - - - ~3-~4 86-~7 ~9 ~ -90 92-93 95-96 9~-99 01-02 ¦ 19~3~2®®2 1. ~ _ _ _ - - 1 1.2 ~ ~ - ~ -t- _ - - ~ i` ~ y 0.3 ~ - ~ ' ~ i - ~ 1 _ ~ ; ~ _ i - -t- - J - i - -T- -I ~ - -~---f-- - ~ - 33 3~ 36-37 39-90 92-93 95-96 93 -99 01-02 i - ~ I ~ 9~3~~0®2 3000 - ~ 200 - _ - - _ , 2600 ~ i 2400 ~ ~ . - i ! 22®® it i 1 i 2®®® _ _ - - 1800 ± ~ _ 1600 _ - - _ _ ~ 1400 _ _ I _ _ 1200: ~ ~ ~ ,-_L I E3-34 36-37 39-90 92-93 96-96 93-99 01-02 ~ ~9~~®ao~ 16000 I - - _ ; - - --i ~ i 14000 ~ , , 12000 - - ~ 10000 - X000 6000 i y X000 ~3-~4 ~6' ~ ~ ; ~ -~7 ~9-90 9~-93 9~-96 9~-99 01-02 i i 19~3~~002 ~ 30000 - _ _ _ ~ 25000 _ _ - _ i j 4 ~ 1 I 20000 _ ~ , r-~ r 15000 ~ r ~ ~ - ~ 10000 ~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ _J 5000 ; _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ +----1- 33-3~ 36-37 39-90 92-93 95-96 9E-99 01-02 ~