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Home My WebLink AboutCOM 0070.008 1998-2000 N$vcna:.;it_ '..c..llen¢ts nt S1. ' - h[[p: w.umc.com~c~k psvchabgi~:,,,na- x 2K Citizen's Action Guiae Previous Article ~ Contents Paee ~ Next Article INNER PREPAREDNESS The Psychological Challenges of Y2K ~ RECEIVED Tlme..-_ By__._....~„ By Gordon Davidson and Corinne McLaughlin ~e---~-~-r~---- County Council F'- N=-' : The Y2K computer problem is especially challenging to the traditional rational mind that requires indisputable factual data before it can act. We have watched hundreds of bright, talented leaders wrestle internally with the inherently nebulous, indefinable and ualmown consequences of what may happen as a result of the Y2K problem. In one conference of frustrated, fact-hungry political leaders and economic forecasters, understanding Y2K was decribed as "trying to nail a cream pie to the wall." Just as people go through distinct psychological stages when first teaming that they have a terminal illness, so people pass through different stages when trying to come to terms with Y2K: 1. Denial. This is the most common response. People think it cant be that serious. Or they think that technical wizards will come up with a magic bullet to 5x it just in time. "Oh, Bill Gates will come up with a solution." For those who don't think systemically, it's difficult to assimilate the potential severe cascading systemic effects that could result from a loss of power in the electric grid, failures in thousand-mile-long food-supply lines or water- or sewage-treatment plants. Many people have the attitude that "I don't even us a compJuter, so11why should I care about it?^ ~Nl^Q~'GLSs'fM~ /1Q ~~'IR~KUK~Lj /f0-evr^l~9CN~ ~4HJ~TOO 6kJ~ fp CQbe, The sheer improbability of it all is another barrier. The idea ghat the most powerful nation on earth and much of the world civilization could be brought to its imees because of some misprogrammed computer codes simply boggles the mind. It is difficult to integrate because most of us simply do not understand how totally dependent we aze on computers for everything from our food supply with its computerized "just in time" inventory systems, rail-delivery systems)j~~to all our financial transactions with every nation in the world. ~iSSitilt-Ct't~~[4~1 N0N-LN7C1-Y~g6~e C'O-~~~Pd~{t~fi.~Jpr~tf. 2. Anger. The second stage is oRen anger and blaming corporate and government managers for short-term, bottom-line thinking. People ask accusingly, "How could they be so stupid? Why didn't they tell us sooner that this could be a major problem? H/o~w much aze they still not telling us? What else are they hiding?" {nai( 4'~~yo~l-G~r1CV3JIDYdt~v~'~CFOJC9oveLNV,.~..f,Co~«~Y1lt-S 3. Fear. The next stage can be feaz, when people get in a survivalist mode and try to protect themselves--running out to buy and store food, water, and other supplies. They"t_hink, "If I just do the right things I will be OK." ~a,, of !r urtye~,'nitt-51~t S'fgYl.L~' "7~-~Y2/1 j ~001~vXj f aQQq'~Jt 4. Depression and Panic: Next, people realize that even if they buy food and store water and tots?lly prepaze, they could still be without electricity and transportation systems. They worry that other people who aze desperate may try to steal their food or become violent. They then may feel a sense of hopelessness-that everything will come crashing down. They feel overwhelmed with the magnitude of it. This is the dangerous stage, as mass panic may a ue if lazge numbers of people go through this stage at the same time. CYQSk ~QNt C~ K ell jS0 /a~~?''1 ~~fS-~uL f~ ~,S~~q~ fJL~~i a~Ijt~ Comm. No. 7 • ~ ' File No. F ~N 1 of 3 Ref. To: Presentees yS Ea C ~ IR4/98 2:37 PM Ref, Date JAN 1 ~ t999 Camm. No. - . } 5. Acceptance aad Cooperation. Finally, people can reach the stage of accepting the inevitability of this massive change, aad asking realistically what they can do as part of the lazger community to cooperate and to make sure everyone is as ready as possible. /oca/ ecfi~ ~Qqt~ /rtZ`,r ~ ~jfjOQ/.tj,~ In order forthis possibility to become a reality, it seems essential that as many people as possible become informed about Y2K as rapidly as possible. This gives them time to go through a personal and psychological process to reach the stage of acceptance and working with others. If the current official policy of withholding information about the severity of potential disruptions continues, and people do not find out until mid-1999, with little time left to prepare, they will be angry, frightened, less trustful and less likely to work together. Individual survivalism becomes a useless strategy if you are the only house on your block with food and water, and others aze also in need. If you hide in the hills with your fear, vour food and a m'n, the quality of life you would be livino would leave little real reason for livine. We need to start spreading the word about Y2K eazly enough that people can go through their persona] process and work through their feaz and panic while they still have time to prepare. If people have time to acknowledge and plan for the disruptions, we will have a better opportunity to build a network of community relationships that will support everyone in working together, sharing resources, skills and expertise and building a stable society. Businesses will also have time to geaz up to meet new demands for canned foods, wood stoves, bottled water, and so forth. People aze not just waiting for leaders to take action. An August 1998 poll by Americans Talk Issues Foundation showed that 10 percent of Amencans have purchased emergency home supplies and 39 percent aze considering it. Over a hundred community preparedness groups have spnmg up all azound the country, and churches, foundations and other organizations aze beginning to geaz up to help prepaze the public for the likely impact of widespread system+c disruptions. Some are seeing the Y2K crisis as a social change opportunity. People who have been working their entire lives for political, social and cultural change immediately see its transformational potential. A common response among this group is, "This is what I came here for," or "Pve been waiting my entire life for this." They immediately see the systemic implications of the issue, and use their carefully developed prototype projects as seed examples of how we can meet some ofthe rea)<human needs in this new situation. What many people aze realizing is that if there aze breakdowns in the infrastructure of the modem world, the seeds that have been planted by ail these movements are likely to see exponential growth. Previously uninvolved members of the public will see them as practical solutions they can use in neighborhoods and communities to meet real-life needs. Using well-developed dialoguing and visioning processes involving the entire community, people could develop new ways to organize themselves with community-supported agriculture, barter and alternative currencies, solar and wind energy, wholistic and complementary medicine, and co-ops of all kinds. As people realize they can mobilize their personal resources and contribute to wmmunity-prepazedness cfforts, they feel more confident and empowered that they can get through this Y2K crisis. Corinne McLaughlin and Gordon Davidson are coauthors of Spiritual Politics: Changing the World from the Inside Out (Ballantine, 1994), and Builders of the Dawn. They are cofounders ojThe Center for Visionary Leadership in Washington, D.C. and cofounders of Sirius, an ecological village and educational community in Massachusetts. Corinne coordinated a national task force for Bresident Clirrton's Council on Sustainable Development and taught politics at American University, and Gordon was formerly the executive director of the Social Irrvestment Forum and of The Center for Environmentally Responsible Economics. They can be reached at: The Center for Visionary Leadership, 3408 Wisconsin Ave. NW , Suite 200, Washington, DC 20016; (202) 237-2800. t ut4/98 2:37 Pt WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S.A. (Nr ' - L Results of the survey and the By Robert MacMillan, Newsbytes. discussio vith the above-mentioned Failure to insure Yeaz 2000 computer ~ federal agencies, the GAO said, show compliance may result in billions of V that the states are using a total of 421 dollazs in benefits payments never ~ ~ automated systems to manage the seven making it to the needy, the General federal welfaze programs examined in Accounting Office (GAO) reported in its Ql the survey. Total spending to fix these latest brief to Congress regazding the ~ i systems comes to approximately $545 Yeaz 2000 problem. ~ ~ million. The GAO also noted that many The report, titled "Year 2000 ~ ~ ~ ' states do not make separate accounting Computing Crisis: Readiness of State models for Year 2000 funds. Automated Systems to Support Federal 1~ O RS The GAO enumerated several potential „ ?iy problems that could wind up separating Welfare Programs, bluntly informs N M ^ beneficiaries from billions of dollars, Congress that "The federal government Imo' p,r1 FBI has a huge vested interest in automated including: new recipients could not be state and local systems that support added to the recipient file; eligibility for (federal) welfare programs. Many of new applicants could not be determined; these systems must be renovated to recipients could be denied benefits; make the transition to the year 2000." payments could be underpaid or The GAO analyzed Year 2000 overpaid; and paymerns could be readiness in several systems, including s ° ~ $ c beThe GAO also reported that Medicaid; Temporary Assistance for ~ o .a ~ n ~ approximately one-third of state systems Needy Families (TANF); Women, „ .c ,a ~ P3. Infants and Children (WIC); food r iu a. ~ .@ for federal welfare programs are Year stamps; child support enforcemenfi child ~ Q' ~ > " ~ 2000-compliant so far. The area scoring care; and child welfare programs. The oo ~ ~ m ~ y the lowest in terms of total computer GAO also set out to identify Year 2000 ~ ~ ~ £ ~ h made ready is the Medicaid aid already being provided by federal o „ °e group with 16 percent of its total ,;s agencies, and to idemify oversight and ~ : c ~ 's a: systems currently COmplia~. Half of the . monitoring activities already provided 0° £ o ~ ~ total amount of all state-nm systems for O v o 'y ° ~ ~ federal welfare programs Gave been for the date conversion. d y ° „ The Yeaz 2000 problem is expected to ~ ~ ~ c m ° ~ assessed for potential Year 2000 many computers' two-argrt Gate clocks EL-• •'o~` G r ~ ~I ~No matterhow O ~d~ ems have fail to understand that the yeaz reading A ~ ° C7 ° been assessed and ed on, however, "00" means "2000;" not "1900." Most • . the GAO reported that most states are federal agencies have been required to lagging behind Systems renovation make their computer systems and work, according to guidelines from the networks Yeaz 2000-compliant by early Office of Management and Budget next year. (OMB), was to be completed by The most recent report amalgamates i : j y a ° September 1998. According to the results of a questionnaire sent out to i - ~ X ~ ~ July/August 1998 surveys, most states all 50 states, the District of Columbia, I ~ ~ ~ ~ had renovated little more than 30 Guam, Puerto Rico and the Virgin ~ ~ H ~ percent of their systems. Arkansas Idaho Islands, and igformation on Year 2000 ~ o ~ and Utah were in the lead, with more readiness provided by the Departmem of ~ H ~ , • than'7g percent of their work completed, Health 8c Human Services (HHS), the ~ ~ a ti but 18 states reported that they had fixed Health Care Financing Administration o ~ ~ less than 25 percent of their Medicaid (HCFA) and the Administration for eo 4 ° c systems. Children and Families, a unit of the c ~ ~ - Department of Agriculture's Food and - y i November 1U• t~s: tz:a9 am. ET Nutrition Service. : - ~ .c " ~ Copyright r9 /998 Cable News Ne[wonk Jnc. .5 • ~ ~ ~ ~~°`'~".rnofn.c®/dipaljmm/rcwsbyoeJ121184.ircm1 ALL R[GHTS RESERVED. H ~ ~ Y2K AND TIC "CHICKEN LITTLE" SYNDROIVIE by Tbornar Melaris information problems? How dependent around our homes, or the small busi- were we on systems that took shortcuts? nesses in our neighborhoods, than we Ediror'f Note: So rbat nadcrr can be more What did we do to our customers by sell- will with any of the bank accounts, food, informed about rbe Y2K qucsrron, TMA ing them systems and services that used telephone, power, or business services rcquetred rbe following rommcntary from these shortcues? What would happen to that we use. mitbin "rbe indastry. "Tom Melatir, BSEE, them if they failed? And who was going to Now, it's easy for me to claim all of is nrrrrndy a srnior engineering manage mitb pay if they did? (Do you begin to feel that this, but what proof do I bring. Fitt, look a ma ar national/intcrnationa! trlaommnni- cation and information tetbnology company. survival instinct mentioned eazlier?) at the classified ads for employment We Hiseaperirncesp~ntl9yearsafromputer, tom- We began planning fixesandreplace- aze in the middle of one of the hotter munication, and information processing tecbnal- mend to the systems we used. We began markets for software and information ogy. The opinionr oJjned ben an solely bit awn. telling customers what their risks were, technology engineers, the prime talent what we would fix, and what they would needed to bring new products ro market For several years, I have followed the have to fix. We established Y2K srandazds as well as to manage and fix the Year 2000 "Yeaz 2000" problem with concern and for our internal products and services as problem. We're short a few percent of humor. As an engineer, I know how well as for those we offer to our custom- the total demand for talent and it's a dependent we are on our information er; so did all our supplier and compel- seller's mazkec Second, in spin of that systems and how daunting this problem tors. Nobody mane to be the compauy, or overall shortage, you can go to the could be if we fail to meet the challenge the employee, tbar turned up rbe mo?!d, or Internet, look for "Yeaz 2000" or "Y2K," it presents. Yet, I am somewhat amused turn our piece of it. We are all analyzing and find ample efforts devoted to work- bysome ofthe predictions of what migbt our information tools and systems, test- ing on the Year 2000 problem. The links ocnrrwhen the clocks roll over to the fiat ing, fixing, and replaang them. We proof rapidly fan out ro thousands of other second of the neat millennium in the lest new ones. We even work on devising links for commerce, finandal, govern- year 2000: As difficult as the problem is, "workazounds" for those we. cannot fix, went, and education sites. You can scotch I doubt thatmost ofthose predictions will or make them live long enough to be for products, companies, or governmmc come true. Why? Becatue humans are economically replaceable later.Wealllilce agencies that concern you and add driven by a very strong survival instinct tomorrow. More importantly, most of us "Y2K" or "Year 2000" in the same search. _ The businesses, .governments, world aze responsible engineers, businessmen, You'll be surprised at how much they tea communities, and individuals that con- and individuals who like doing things you about what works -and what slrute them like seeing the sun rise lgh4 doing them better. doesn't. They'll tell you about what tomorrow. Man's evolutionary history is Now, does this mean that the first they're doing, their policies, and the a record of his ability to record and second, or the many seconds that follow, fixes or test software available right process information across time, beyond will go by without a glitch? I don'rthink• now. To take a shortcut, go to: bttpJ/ his own time. Much of our future depends so.Sratistitsintroducerrstothebellcutve: mmm.mitre.org/research/y2k/dons/ on modern technologies for record- at the high end we can rely on many Y2IC I1NKS.btml/ and follow the many keeping that enhance our ability to cal- systems to perform superbly. The major- links thereto government, business, and culate and predict futures from those iry will probably perform successfully edunlon sites worldwide. Find the link records with greater preasion, accuracy, with little inconvenience or minor failure to "Year 2000 Bookmarks," about mid and a more comfortable assurance ofwhat found, but at the low end there will be page. This thing branches out fast and tomorrow brings. some failures. We all can expect to far. To that end, businesses, govern- experience some impact, possibly even So, what am I going to do on meets, scientists, engineers, and ordinary outright financial or material damage, December 31, 1999? Ihave a ZO-year- but curious individuals began about five because someone else was neglectfirl, lazy, old digital watch that may not make it years ago to look at the shortcuts used to cheap, ignorant, or something problem- across the boundary into the yeaz 2000. store and process date-dependent infor- alt eluded all effora to find and solve is If it doesn't, I plan to throw it in the 'melon, shortcuts chat reduced the cost There will be some real tragedies and trash and get a brand new one, a. S25 of our inforrnalon storage and process- others will be unrighteously blamed on 'inconvenience. That's ifI'm in town. Pm ing systems. Technically, the problem is Y2K problems. There will be more hyped going ro start looking for a real good deal simple. Universally, none of the problems stories looking for ad dollar, unforru- on airplane tickets, with a plan ro arrive found were unsolvable. Their resolution nately contributing to a sense of pending someplace fun on January 1, 2000. Maybe, will cost time, money, and some incon- doom. I just don't think there will be I'll go to Ausaalia, do a walkabout, and venience along the way. Four year ago catastrophe on a grandscale. We're more buy a didgeridoo. There are somethings my employer took a hazd look ac our risks. likely to experience Y2K troubles on a that are sill truly timeless. How dependent were we on Year 2000 smaller scale with some of the older things ®1998 Tbomar Mdarir -all rigba rvcrosd 18 httpJ/wwwMounninAsrrologeccom - _ - r__-__ .~.N.~J.J~~ j.a.a.~1 •^1 c N p y ~7,--, D - ~ i, Q m d 0 ~ ~~o~,c ~ ~ ml~ ~ o o cN. ~ ~ r.w Z ~ O 71~. N ~ _ ~ (D ~ U fD CA y ~ ry d y f7 0r 0 ~ ~O NIfOJI .N. N.y., O 91 K N O a' ~ {y~ ~ ao• a q; 'r^Tv ~lv ~ O.N~i m m 3 ~ , A W ii W P G7 O' n i'p O ~p N I ~ O W .7 O W O'~ O F O~. I~dI 0~~~~. 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Ym o ~9$ Ao^ °~3 mi$° ~°e „a. o a~ FDO~n ~3°a' ~~}10$m~ m t ~vto_ _vo _L.°__' .oo xo..e p~o € m LL~'~ r2 rm$~ a ^d a :'rn2 oiof9 U v° N } d c x Y E o • ~ $ u w Y j d Y ~ o y ~ e~~ c F 3€y ~ w N 1 c ~`y C w el~ _ F• 8 wI~ 3 w ~o ~ 9IZ G V V ¦ Ei ~ C j •••~AYc}C~N~~Y 3VCq~I~Y ~•YIYI p~YY Yli~~l Cle h A, ~ d_ p~ o E LL I I~~ M1 m fl ~~>I) i U Y11 ~ Y~~ I; Y Y~> J W< U ~ ~LL ; d~ ~ .................s............. LL W i.__ _ _ - _ - YEA, YEA! Y2K Millenium Bug! Computer crash on the grid or Back to the land naturally! by micnea~ sunanda Now the national news rumors of the impossible nitemare of an national blackouts of giant computer & electric run power grids, experts are threatening may crush most industry on Jan.l 2000! Were they designed to fail? So will our biggest national mainframe computers companies crash the U$ into 2000, as predicted by 100s of Dr.doomsayers of cyber-space? Meanwhile 1000s of computer programers say, "a crash won't happen, we'll prevent it, don't worry your hi tech head about it". But how could the early programers overlook the coming need for major shift in basic motherboard digital systems from 99 to 2000? They're we so greedy then! Here's the Y2K basics. Over 25 yrs ago when giant computers were being created to control national grids: airlines, trains, satellite & banking networks, etc, huge expensive data-storage made them 'save space' by using 00 hours, 00 minutes & 00 seconds clocks, & 00 months-00 days- 00 year calenders, not 0000 years like we'll need in 2000. The monster computer programs that run national & global systems are stuck in 00 year/time & unable to expand into 2000, without major ovrshaul in hard & soft ware. One y2k expert estimates it will cost U$ $600 billion to fix or prevent the global computer crash, if we could invest our whole national budget?!?! Here's some major y2k problems: 1. Billions of embedded clock chips that must be replaced with 2000 clocks, created totally y2k compliant with new programs. 2. But many old 00 programs were created before current programers were doing it; who don't know how to fix them old mainframe languages. Aiiv'u`a.i iiiiSSiGii Gii`uCdi Sti~S3 i5 thi. Cisi~i~atiuiiity ilttwt~i~ vii YILIJ that exchange data, which must match the new Y2k systems, which must be designed, installed, tested & working before 1-1-2000. The whole process of y2K compliance is so complex & vast that some experts (aka Garry North & Co) say its hopeless & too expensive to fix all our inter- dependent mainframe systems(clock chips & programs) before or after 1-1-2000, to prevent a major electric/economic crash. Now some computer making & using companies are scrambling to evaluate & develop their y2k protential solutions to disasters. But North says "none are really y2k complaint, & are even hidding their efforts to avoid law suits, bank failures, stock crash & grid blackouts". If the worst case y2K scenario is likely, then it's the biggest 'predictable disaster' in human history?! Do we believe our cyberbrain networks could crash our fantasies of super tech domination of the world?, as we've been living in 'all electric' square city grids since WW2. Was our fast growing computer run reality of hi tech power 'designed to fail'? If so why? & what can we do now to prevent mass chaos in cities without imported power ~ supplytmes. A few 100K aware or scared American are working to prepare for the worst by stockpiling, gardening, alternative energy sources &^even selling their townhouses & supertech, moving to the country, with wells, solar/wind/water animal power &1 year supply of food stored safely. The 'survivalist' fears of '70s 'energy crises'aze returning to haunt consumers, becausea national econo-crash may hit our homes, without power inputs. So rumors of governments & superich building underground bases aze common on the webs. Meanwhile simple home power systems & generators are selling fast to unplug from the grids, that may collapse from y2k! Some scazed folks are arming themselves, afraid of invasion by the poor, starving or government takeovers by military law, fueled by rumors of U$ FEMA emergency plans to control power & cities essential for industry & military police states. How dependent are your family, work & neighborhoods on computer run systems now? Are they y2k complaint, able to make the necessary transition? Small is functional in a crises & beautiful, if natural & simple. The bigger, faster, richer & more specialized your lifestyle, health & job are now, the more vulnerable to natural & hi-tech shortage or crash. If you totally trust your life to the giant cybergrids of: TV, science, banking, military, transpo, global phones & satilite networks, you likey doubt it could crash. Can you 'suspend disbelief enuf to consider living without electricity a while or forever? We'd have to cooperate to live thru such a crash. How can we simply prepare for the worst, staying healthy & working to create family cooperation with neighbors? we'll need to avoid total disaster. If you have the "it'll never happen" or the 'hide wealth supplies inside' attitude, it will prevent you trusting neighbors & mother natures raw cycles. Some computerized companies are admitting to working on y2k bugs; by even telling us via websites, how their progress toward y2k compliance is coming to upgrade, however doubtful it may be to many computer experts. They are creating y2k programs, filters & clocks, to install far ahead now. But can they even be tested off-line before 1-1-2000? In Spokane, WA some community/neighbor groups are forming to cooperate before the crash, to sustain their healthy lives, depending on local & less resources & networks, not national supply grids. A couple million back-to- the-Landers (Mother Earth News types) are living more naturally than city folks ever dreamed of! Of course most consumers doubt y2k, like a Russian or alien invasion!, so they keep paying taxes for protection & superich party games. If you believe a crash can come in next year or so, then simply unplug from the grid, like Gandhi called it 'non cooperation'. Being self reliant & working *.~ith ear!h to s•.:pply cLr simple needs, recy~aing at home, i~andi-crafts, footravel, gardening, etc, we do more for natural love, .than fear of a y2k crash. This may be the global miracle we need to stop the massive military style toxic pollution weove been generating.for decades, secretly poisoning ourselves to death as mother 'Gala' earth naturally works to balance our community. Some of us think a global ecotastrophy/cataclysm will hit earth, before or after the y2k crashes the tech= grids. If so, will these catastrophies make us apply all our practical Aquarian love, widdom & skills, to survive a poleshift, like Atlantis sunk under about lOK BC! What natural home survival techniques, systems & arks are we creating to flow with & even enjoy the coming spiral crash & natural disasters, hitting families & nature more than ever on earth? Most governments with computers are ignoring y2k or hidding their emergency preparation underground. Is that why Art Bell jttsF-q~i~~ broadcasting~a-9-I2-98: after ] 4 yes? He became the most successful national radio talkshow host in the U$A, by exposing many conspiracies, earth changes, coruption & cosmic changes. including the y2k problem, he's beeb preparing for, promoting & selling survival gear. His favorite y2k expert, he interviewed a few times is "Gary North" has a website, also check v2K & Art Bells homepage. " _ w, `y~1 f.i ' _ tip ,a ~ . r 2 ~ i~1t ~~a e ~ ~ ?RS~ i tY L i6 ` N f s`K Rw