HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0070.011 1998-2000 O 0
The Y2K Impact On The Biq Island Of Hawaii
Prepared 01 -14 -1999 by Cookware Inc. for Hawaii County
Table Of Contents:
• A Very Brief History of the Y2K Problem.
• The Y2K Impact on the Big Island of Hawaii. r RECEIVED
• How are worldwide Y2K repairs going?
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A Very Brief History of the Y2K Problem
The Y2K (Year 2000) problem has been known for many years. The term Y2K is a term
reserved for a whole host of problems related to the switchover from the year 1999 to the
year 2000. ALL the problems are related to shortcuts taken for the last 30 years in the
computer industry in how years were represented in software and hardware. All of the
shortcuts were done because, at the time, there were money saving or other efficiency
issues involved. The problems can be summed up as follows:
- Many computer programs utilize the last two digits to specify the year. In some
situations this problem occurs not only in software, but embedded in hardware
and integrated circuits. Many of these are in critical applications, such as the
power grid, transportation (tankers, airplanes, trucks) and even in satellites.
Others are in low -level areas such as our personal computers.
- In many cases programmers, to signify the end of a record, have used the value
'99'. These are failing already because either 99 was used as the year, or
9/9/99 was used for the date, indicating a deleted or end -of- record.
- In an unrelated situation, GPS (Global Positioning System) fails in August 1999
due to a 1024 -week wrap- around.... this is CRITICAL since many banks,
hospitals, and much of marine navigation get real -time clock and positioning
information from the GPS military grid. This problem is ONLY fixed by installing
new hardware or, if possible, upgrading the firmware within the hardware.
One can not dismiss the Y2K issue. Most of the world's governments, and especially the
United States, acknowledge the issue. Many of the world's largest corporations have
spent millions trying to correct the problems. The question at hand is... what is going to
happen in Y2K and how will it affect us here in Hawaii?
Comm. No. 70. "/
File No. FIN r-
Ref. To: Presented it S re c
Ref. Date JAN 1 5 1999
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The Y2K Impact on the Big Island of Hawaii
While nobody can predict exactly what will occur when Y2K hits, we do know several
things for sure:
• There IS a Y2K problem. This is not a myth. Ignoring it will not make it go away.
• The world will NOT be compliant in time... this is already known.
• The big problem is NOT having home computers or small business computers
compliant, but a much more dreadful problem of Toss of transportation industries,
banking institutions and foreign government support.
There is much discussion on the impact of Y2K in the mainland and in the world at large.
However most of this discussion is not relevant to what will happen here in Hawaii. In this
section we represent what is considered to be the primary Y2K threats, and how we feel
they may effects us here on the Big Island:
Loss of power - There is worldwide concern that Y2K will cause isolated and also
widespread loss of power. The problem is compounded by the fact that most large land
areas (such as the mainland US) have an interconnected power grid. Thus, even if say,
Indiana is Y2K compliant in their power grid, Y2K non - compliance in neighboring Illinois or
Michigan could cause Indiana to crash due to the interconnected ripple effect. Major
power outages exceeding two to three days to repair in the northern parts of the US, as
well as in large cities anywhere, will cause rioting, death due to temperature extremes,
and other life threatening problems.
Effect on Hawaii: Minimal... HELCO assures us that they will be Y2K compliant by 2000.
One reassuring statement is that much of the equipment in Hawaii is old enough to
predate use of computers and thus is not affected by Y2K. Additionally our island is not
connected to the mainland grid and thus ripple effect is minimized.
Loss of communication — A large number of the world TELCOS (especially outside of
the US) already know they will not be compliant in time. Because of this there is a
possibility of loss of telecommunications. If satellites and landlines go out this could
become major problem.
Effect on Hawaii: Potentially severe... Loss of communications does not USUALLY cause
a loss of life... but loss of communications CAN cause a major loss of money, as
businesses, banks, and other institutions can not handle the day to day transactions they
require. Because of the fact that this is an isolated island - communications loss may hit
us especially hard, and take even longer to fix. Are we prepared to be disconnected from
the US and Asia for weeks to months?
Loss of transportation - This is a major concern because it is already known that fuel
tankers (oil, etc), airplanes, airport control towers, trucks and trains ALL have Y2K
compliance issues, many of which will NOT be solved in time. Loss of transportation can
cause loss of food, Toss of money and loss of life.
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Effect on Hawaii: SEVERE! While inter - island and intra - island transportation will probably
not be severely affected... we have MANY problems associated with failure of
transportation elsewhere:
• Oil tankers are known to be non - compliant and will NOT be fixed in time by industry
estimates. If a major Y2K problem occurs, what will be the effect of loss of tanker
traffic on Hawaii? HELCO states that they have a minimum of a 30 -day emergency
supply of fuel for power production. is this enough? If even 10 to 20 percent of the
tankers are out of service for 30 to 60 days after Y2K is Hawaii going to be at the
top of the list for fuel delivery? Probably not... most likely fuel will be delivered
places at great life- threat (northern areas, where it is cold, or famine areas)...
Hawaii will not be at the top of the delivery lists, causing for island shortages and
potential power outages. This extends itself to fuel for cars... we can expect
potential shortages at the pumps because of non - delivery of gas and oil. How will
this affect us? How will it effect the islands fuel dependent industries such as
fishing, construction and tourism?
• Tourists - consider for a moment what happens in Hawaii if you have 100,000
tourists who are forced to stay here for an additional 30 to 60 days because airlines
are running at a reduced pace. Who picks up the bill? How do we feed them? What
if they can't pay? This is potentially an EXTREME problem. Are the Hilo and Kona
airport control systems compliant?
• Food and other staples — since much of the island is dependent on non -local food
sources and material goods there may be shortages due to transportation problems
outside of the islands. Are we equipped to deal with these?
Local Economic Problems — Local economic problems affect everyone differently,
depending on how the local institutions are prepared for their individual Y2K situations. In
some cases, poor preparation will cause smaller banks and loan institutions to run out of
cash or be unable to provide funds due to computer malfunctions. In other cases, poorly
prepared local governments may be unable to cut paychecks to employees. Already the
government is issuing contingency plans to smaller institutions on how to handle runs on
the bank and distribution of funds during Y2K.
Effect on Hawaii — Unknown at this time. There is very little available from the
government in Honolulu concerning their Y2K plans and contingencies. We do not know if
the government can meet payroll, welfare, food stamp programs and other necessary
monetary commitments when Y2K occurs. Likewise with the local governments - are the
computers overseeing the local distribution of funds Y2K compliant? Have they been
tested and do they conform to the government protocols for compliance? While many of
the banking institutions (such as Bank of Hawaii) have Y2K fixes well under way, what
about the other institutions, smaller banks, S &L's and credit unions?
Global Economic Problems — One of the most severe impacts of Y2K is how the world
will actually deal with the Y2K situation. It is well known that Canada and the US lead the
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world in Y2K fixes. Likewise it is known that both the US and Canada will not be done in
time. With this in mind the possibility that the rest of the world will be worse off when Y2K
hits is almost a given. Europe, in the middle of dealing with the new monetary system, is
way behind in Y2K compliance, despite urgent warnings from their technology advisors as
well as urgings from the US. Even more frightening is the fact that all of Asia, including
Japan and China, are extremely behind in Y2K compliance issues.
Effect on Hawaii — EXTREME and SEVERE! Unlike the mainland, the islands are very
dependent on Asian economy. An economic crisis in Asia, and even Europe, can have
extreme negative effects not only on our tourism, but also on our ability to get supplies
and staples. Furthermore, depending on the severity of the worldwide problem, many
companies who are dependent on foreign clients and funds may find themselves in a time
of shortage while foreign governments attempt to salvage their economies. Are we
prepared as an island for this possibility? What happens to our tourism industry if travel
from Asia drops to 5 or 10% of it's current amount? What if it drops to zero, due to
economic as well as transportation failures?
Pre -Panic — This is perhaps one of the most dangerous aspects of Y2K. Consider for a
moment that we know WHEN Y2K is going to occur, but we have no idea how bad it will
be. Therefore, people can't plan. When people can't plan they tend to panic (see what
happened during the depression, as an example). This, combined with millenium fever will
cause quite a few people to being hoarding. In fact, reports from sporting goods and
survival good stores already indicate that hoarding has begun as early as spring of 1998...
this will only get worse. This is one of the primary reasons that the US Government is
reluctant to be to vocal in Y2K information — because of the possibility of pre - panic.
Effect on Hawaii — Potentially severe... this is difficult to predict. We certainly expect to
see pre - panic, especially on the mainland. How and if this will affect us here in Hawaii
remains to be seen. If we experience pre -panic here in the islands it could be a very bad
thing, because it will compound all the other issues. Pre -panic can cause a run on the
banks„ creating an economic depression. Pre -panic can cause a run on the food supply,
creating food shortages. Pre -panic can cause a run on the fuel supplies, creating
shortages of fuel. Couple this with a potential transportation outage during Y2K and you
may have a recipe for disaster. If Y2K is light, with few failures, even the pre -panic alone
can create the entire disaster. If Y2K is heavy, a hard pre -panic can make it even worse.
How do we deal with this issue?
Medical Support — A very large number of the electronic monitoring devices used in
hospitals have Y2K problems. This fact is already known. Most of the Y2K impaired
devices can only be changed by modifying the physical hardware of the device. Some of
these devices are involved in monitored delivery of drugs, or in measurements of x -ray
dosages.
Effect on Hawaii — Potential — depending on how the local hospitals are planning to deal
with this problem. Couple to this the fact that there may be greater injuries, especially if
rioting occurs, during the Y2K time. Are we ready for this?
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Conclusion of Effects on Hawaii — When taking the above examples into consideration
we can see that there is a potential for at least one, if not more, disasters to occur. If Y2K
is bad enough we may see a combination of all of the disasters at once. Normally
disasters are fairly localized — but Y2K can create disasters on a worldwide scale — and
couple with it factors such as loss of transportation and communications making quick
recovery difficult.
In Edward Yourdons' book Time Bomb 2000, which deals with the Y2K issues, he breaks
Y2K disasters into time periods of: several days, one to two weeks, one month, six
months, one year and ten years. He asserts that the majority of the problems will be in the
one to two day period, with the least of the problems extending to a year or longer.
However, we assert that it is probably just the opposite for Hawaii. As a fairly self -
sufficient (at least survival wise) island, the one to two day problems probably won't affect
us much. Likewise, we can probably weather a week or two of loss of communication or
other deficiencies — at least much better than the northern climates and other parts of the
world will.
However, the impact of a worldwide recession, or other form of economic collapse, or
disasters which impact the island severely for more than a few weeks — could have an
effect on Hawaii which lasts for a year or more. Indeed, severe economic collapse in Asia
could adversely affect our tourism industry to the point of killing off many of the companies
involved in its support.
It is this possibility of global disaster, or at least disaster affecting the travel and
international banking industries for a significant time, which is the greatest threat to the
long -term health of the island. This is not to say that we should ignore the other
possibilities as well. Short-term mainland transportation problems can effect us here in
the Islands. Likewise, if we see a run on the banks and the food stores and an inability of
the local governments to provide welfare, food stamps, veteran benefits, child support and
other necessities, we may see rioting here in the Islands. These things should be avoided
if possible.
The major problem associated with this issue, as we have pointed out, is the inability to
predict with any degree of accuracy exactly what will happen. Nobody wants to be an
alarmist — and preventing a pre -panic should be a top priority. However, we feel it would
be better to be prepared for the possibility, than to ignore the possibility and have the
disaster occur. In one case we would be prepared — and if disaster strikes, thankful. If
disaster doesn't strike, well, we were prepared. In the other case, we can decide to ignore
the issues and not prepare ourselves — if disaster doesn't strike, then lucky us. If, on the
other hand, disaster strikes... it will probably be a bit late for finger pointing.
To sum this up... if we were to KNOW that a tsunami was going to hit the island on
January 1 2000, would we do anything about it? We might not know the strength
of the tsunami... it might be small... it might be large. But regardless, the island
would attempt to prepare for the results. Y2K is a tsunami, but on a worldwide
scale. It might be big, it might be small... but let's not get caught on the beach.
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How Are Worldwide Y2K Repairs Going?
This is a brief listing of just a few of the literally thousands of reports on Y2K fixes and
failures currently being monitored around the world. Most of this information comes from
Sangers' Y2K Review, a Y2K worldwide monitoring group. All this information is from the
last 30 days.
• "The Defense Department's Inspector General reported that the Army's project manager
for the Johnston Atoll Agent Disposal System did not begin checking until last summer
(1998) for Year 2000 bugs in its critical computer systems." Located at Johnston Atoll
southwest of Hawaii, the site in question is an Army chemical disposal site for nerve gas
and blister agents. The IG also found that "the program office failed to prepare necessary
documentation for Year 2000 fixes and has yet to develop a contingency plan, a risk
management plan and a system testing plan.
• The U.S. Defense Department's Inspector General released a report Dec. 31 stating that
some GPS receivers (at least 11,991 of them) had not yet been checked for Y2K
compliance; noncompliance would result in wildly miscalculated positions and possible
mission disruption.
• U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Deputy Director Mike Walker said:
"It is very important that counties, municipalities, school districts and other organizations
that have not yet begun to work on Y2K issues, start now. White some failures will be minor
annoyances, some may have more serious consequences."
• Gallup polled a hopefully representative cross - section of the U.S. population (1,032
Americans) on Dec. 9 -13, about their views on Y2K risks. The poll was conducted for the
National Science Foundation and USA Today. Some results: 34% of respondents expect
"major problems" in 2000. 85% anticipate at least "minor problems "; 54% agree with the
statement, "Y2K will cause only minor disruptions and inconveniences ". 61% expect either
no problems or only minor ones. 26% plan to stockpile food and water; 31% plan to
withdraw some cash from their bank accounts. Almost half say they won't fly on or around
1/1/2000.
• Unitel, the telex specialist, noted that telex is still used by a million people worldwide,
particularly those in finance - related and shipping industries, and in government; "despite
the rise and rise of fax and e-mail, it is still the only form of data transmission which can
give full legal document status." Needless to say, telex systems are noncompliant.
• "Unable to gauge the preparedness of the nation's financial institutions, the Bank of Japan
(BOJ] is devising an array of contingency plans to handle potential settlement problems
caused by the year 2000 computer bug, according to The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday
morning edition."
• A Coast Guard CIO spoke candidly about the Y2K problems of maritime shipping. — U.S.
Coast Guard CIO Rear Adm. George Naccara, speaking at the Navy Connecting
Technology Conference, said that Y2K problems could slow the flow of imported oil to U.S.
communities. Naccara warned that "concerns about computer chips that control oil pumps
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on vessels and in on -shore storage facilities could force the Coast Guard to issue a
directive telling tankers 'not to offload cargo on Dec. 31, 1999. "'
• A survey by the National Association of State Information Resource Executives was
conducted of "top technology officials in every state." (Information from this survey also
appeared in the Wall St. Journal last Dec. 29.) Wisconsin (21% complete) was placed
among the bottom 10 states in terms of compliance. "Ten states reported that
they were at least 70% complete, with Pennsylvania leading the nation at 99 %," followed
by Nebraska, Minnesota, Kentucky, Mississippi and Oklahoma. At the bottom of the heap:
Rhode Island, Oregon, Arkansas, Georgia and Alaska. (NOTE... WHERE IS HAWAII?)
• Canadian government is 82% Y2K compliant as of 1/1/1999, at a cost of 2 billion dollars.
• Ireland — the government estimates that 30% to 50% of ALL organizations in Ireland will
"experience failure due to year 2000 glitches ".
Y2K Resources and Information
The following are just a few references that can be followed to find out more Y2K
information:
• U.S. federal government toll -free Y2K consumer information hotline number:
1- 888 - USA -4 -Y2K (872 - 4925).
• The president's council Y2K website, http: //www.y2k.gov
• Federal Trade Commission Y2K website http://www.ftc.gov
• Sanger's Y2K Review, http: / /www.y2kreview.com/
• Edward Yourdon's Book: Time Bomb 2000, ISBN 0 -13- 095284 -2
• CBS News Y2K site: http: / /cbs2.com /news /y2k/
About this report...
David Cook, president of Cookware Inc, prepared this report. Cookware Inc, a US mainland
(Indiana) based company, provides software services to the international community. Over the
past 20 years Cookware and Cookware employees have provided software and computer services
to organizations such as NASA, the USPS, the Saudi Arab Embassy Information Office, the
Chicago Tribune, American Online, various movie companies and a host of other smaller
companies. Cookware is NOT involved in Y2K services and does not benefit in any way from this
report. The purpose of this report is to raise awareness only.
The information in this report is the personal opinion of David Cook. Most of this information can
be found in the public domain.
For further information conceming the contents of this report or Y2K issues in general, feel free to
contact us at:
Hawaii: David Cook 808 - 966 -5049 dcook @cookware.com
Mainland: Deborah Sellers 317 - 769 -5049 x2 debi @cookware.com