HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0070.012 1998-2000 0 0
NOTICE RECEIVED "
11 Br - - -•�.
County - NS
According to current FEMA directions and directives, we hereby
place the County Council for the County of Hawaii on notice that failure to
act in a timely manner to insure and preserve public safety and health by
implementation of preparededness planning for Y2K disruptions will place
County officials in jeopardy and danger of criminal liability should
appropriate action not be taken in this matter.
Dated this 15th day of January, 1999.
ED MURA
For Kohala Self- Reliance
P.O. Box 1156
Kapa'au HI 96755
ALDO VIDALI
For United Eco- action Fund
P.O. Box 73
Kapa'au HI 96755
Comm. No. 70 • l2
File No. P I N
Ref. To: presented NSSD c
Ref. Date JAN 1 5 199
FEMA FEN4A Urges Local Communities. Erncr...Sector & Public to Oct Reedy Now for Y2K http:/ fit - www.rema.govinva99 /9900l.hun
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FEMA - Urges Local Communities, Emergency Services
Sector & Public to Get Ready Now for Y2K
Full FEMA Coveraae of Y2K issues
Washington, January 6, 1999 — Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) officials are urging the emergency management,
- fire and emergency services communities and the public to get
ready now for Y2K.
"It is very important that counties, municipalities, school districts
and other organizations that have not yet begun to work on Y2K
issues, start now," FEMA Deputy Director Mike Walker said.
"While some failures will he minor annoyances, some may have
more serious consequences."
The Y2K issue is worldwide and refers to electronic and computer
t,t because of inability Sj St2aia'- prinncaaa� that may occur because oa the ii:ahiaity oa f
at
(RUi:- sc;nsiiivi: devices to compute "2000" when systems move from
1999 to the Year 2000 (Y2K). Virtually all systems that rely on
computers or electronic devices that refer to date and time may be
affected by Y2K in one way or. another. This includes power,
dispatch and communications systems, 911 systems,
microcomputers, and much more.
In a recent FEMA survey of state emergency management directors
concerning Y2K issues at the state and local levels, the directors
reported that althor Y2K fixes are well. underway. in state -level
emergency preparedness offices, the emergency service systems of
many counties and municipalities remain untested.
"Generally states and the larger loges governments are aware of and
making some progress toward resolving Y2K issues, however,
many smaller local governments as well as some state and
territorial governments seem not to be aware of the problem:
Walker said. "Clearly the most serious potential Tor problems is at
the local level, and this is what we are concerned about."
In February and March, FEMA will conduct Y2K Consequence
Management workshops around the country to identify critical
iss assess vu lnerabilities review contingency plans.and
consider policies and decisions that need to be taken to deal with
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FEMA. FEMA Urges Local Communities, Einar :Savor 84 Public to Get Randy Now for Y2K http://www.fema.goWnw799199001.hern
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✓`•• possible Y2K consequences. Participants will include state Y2K
emergency coordinators, emergency managers and state fire
mar as well as regional representatives o f FFMA's Federal
Response Pl pa
Many states also reported that they have not developed contingency
plans specifically for Y2K problems; instead the' plan to address
problems under existing emergency plans or they expect to have
their systems Y21C compliant in time. Most states expressed some
level of concern over the possibility of power failures, especially
where power is provided by smaller utilities. Other areas of concern
cited by the states include limited or lack of resources to assess, test
and validate systems and fixes for Y2K problems.
"Every community, every organization and every individual has an
obli to l more a b ou t th v and take action
to prevent potential problems before they occur." Walker said.
"Potential problems need to be identified and addressed now."
As chair and coordinator of the Emergency Services Sector (EES ),
FEMA is one of 34 sector coordinators working with the President's
Council on Y21 Conversion, headed by Presidential Advisor John
A. Koskinen. The FPS group is working to make sure that all
segments of the nation's emergency management community
operate normally through the cross -over period from 1999 to the
Year 2000 and beyond.
(Todared../urturrt' 6, 1999
Federal Emergency Management wge r..cyJ
2 of 2 M999 4:28 AM
The Cassandra Project - Gay Sample Letter http:/ /millennia -bcs com /GOV -LTR HTM
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` 'Feel free to copy and /or modify the following sample letter. It is intended for your
local government (e.g. city, county, etc.). We would appreciate receiving feedback
on any response you receive so that we may post it on our website. (Personal
information will be withheld if you wish.)
[To]
[Title]
[Dept Name]
[address]
[city, state, zip]
[Date]
Dear [ 1,
I am greatly concerned about the Year 2000 problem, and its possible impact on
the reliability and continuity of the services you provide. Specifically I have the
following questions:
i. Does [city, county] have a Year 2000 mitigation project?
2. What is the status of your mitigation activities?
3. Has [city,county] developed contingency plans to ensure continuity of services to
residents in your jurisdiction in the event Y2N failures occur?
4. Has [city, county] developed contingency plans to ensure continued operation shou
third party (suppliers, vendors) failures occur?
5. What steps are being taken to ensure the publics health and safety should critica
infrastructure {e.g. power, water, tra systems, etc.} fail?
6. Will you publicly inform residents of your Y2x efforts and their progress? If so,
and by what means?
I would appreciate a written response to my concerns, as well as assurance that your
services will continue alter December 31, 1999.
I look forward to receiving your reply soon. Thank you for your time and attention.
Si
[your name]
[address]
[city, stare, 71p]
[phone]
Return to Home Page
Ui 1 3
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Introduction
Beyond financial losses, the year 2000 issue represents significant threat to public health and safety.
and critical infrastructure. Computer programs that utilize dates also control nuclear power plant
operations, water and sewer plants, chemical factories, petroleum pipelines, and weapon systems;
failure of which may lead to serious injuries or the loss of human life as well as environmental damage
(Scheier et fal. 1996/1997), Any computer system that makes use of dates is potentially at risk, and that
is most of them.
The cost and scope of correcting this problem are staggering. Most large organizations have millions of
lines of program code affected; for example, at Consolidated Edison, the year 2000 problem is
estimated to impact 24 million lines of code (19971. The State of Ohio estimates its year 2000
conversion efforts at $60 million (May 1996). In total, the Gartner Group estimates that organizations
worldwide will spend between $300 and $600 billion on the year 2000 problem. Will necessary "triage"
due to lack of time and money cause potentially harmful or dangerous aspects to be overlooked?
Beyond the publicized software problems, the aspect most overlooked is the literally billions of
embedded computer chips powering everything from copy machines to medical devices to nuclear
power plants. tt is these embedded chips and systems that pose the greatest threat to our critical
infrastructure and the public health and safety,
Examples Of Actual And Possible Y2K Related Scenarios
Here are some examples of system crashes that have already occurred:
• The five year budgeting system of a US government agency failed while processing the fifth
budget year (2000)
• A case management system of some courts will not accept a probation period of five years
because - 00' is flagged as an invalid date
• Driving licenses due to expire in 2000 are being rejected as already expired by car rental agencies
• Some credit card transaction processing systems refuse cards which expire in 2000
• A recent example was of a mull -ti- million pound UK hospital body scanner which would not work
on 29 February 1996 because it couldn't handle leap years
Examples of possible problems:
• Data on pharmaceutical drugs with expiration dates after the year 2000 would indicate that the
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° medication is expired, preventing prescription refills.
• A medical center's computer cannot trace the medicines prescribed nor illnesses had the past.
• If the 911 emergency system phone system malfunctions for a municipality, the city's population
could be at risk from lack of response by emergency personnel.
• Residents lose access to local public services: (e.g., heat, light, water, sewage, telephone, police,
medical services, transport, etc.)
• The power fails, and it's mid - winter (Northern hemisphere), or the air - conditioning fails, and it's
mid - summer (Southern hemisphere) endangering the elderly iii or infirm.
• The police cannot trace the records of known criminals, nor their fingerprints.
• Jails mistakenly release the wrong prisoners, nor track home detainees.
• if the security computers in nuclear plants locks and fails safe because of Y2K rollover problems,
will plant operators be able to access the remote shutdown room or facility were it to become
necessary?
The Embedded Chip /System Problem
These are the unseen guardians of our lives. They keep nuclear cores stable, the oil, gas, water and
electricity flowing; they keep intensive care units operating and our military forces armed and mobile. If
they fail, our world implodes. And. embedded systems are located everywhere.
"There were 3.5 billion programmable microcontrollers shipped in 1995, and 7 billion last year," says
Margaret Joachim, assistant executive director of Taskforce 2000. "No one knows where they all are, no
one knows if they are compliant." These are just the new ones; the bulk is years older.
Embedded chips and control systems are more difficult to find and fix or replace than software because
of their physical inaccessibility. "fake the signal repeaters on undersea telecommunications cables, or
the tlowmeters on underground pipes, even the pacemakers in patients' hearts, for example. Also
control systems are constructed of a hierarchy of component systems, each of which may be vulnerable
on its own, or in conjunction with others. In many cases two separate subsystems may operate in a single
system.
Chips /systems also give rise to another problem -- testing. Type testing (checking one representative
system bought from the same supplier, and assuming it reflects the compliance status of every other
such system) may not be effective. Pharmaceutical company Smith Kline Beecham discovered that
when it "...bought two machines for monitoring and recording the performance of drug production," says
Taskforce 2000 executive director, Robin Guenier. "When they tested one, it handled January 2000 very
well, and they were very happy. But when they tested the other -- same machine, identical chips — it
didn't."
When the chip serial numbers were checked with the manufacture:, it was explained that the chips had
come from different makers; one made them Y2K compliant, while the other had not. These were
machines, notes Guenier, that were made in 1996.
Also recently, the iNRC discovered that an order of 600 high -end computers failed to pass Y2K tests. It
also discovered that new 200 MHz Pentium PCs it bought in January (1997) have a problem with an
internal clock on the PCs' motherboards. Dallas Semiconductor readily admits that the real -time clocks
used in the PCs are not compliant.
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W ith embedded systems, the concern is often with intervals rather than specific dates: the need may be
for an event to occur at 100 -day intervals rather than on the 5th day of each month. There is also the
possibility that devices with cycles that are measured in hours, and minutes (or even seconds) may be
affected by the problem because year numbers are the basis of time calculations. In such systems the
effect may not be evident at midnight but will arise within the following 24 hours.
Other Problems With Embedded Systems:
• Embedded systems that operate continuously may present what appears an equipment malfunction
on or about 1 January 2000, making it impossible to determine prior to the event whether the
malfunction will occur
• Embedded systems not in continuous use may fail to start or to operate correctly when they are
first switched on in the Year 2000
• Even when the application itself is date- and time- independent, the hardwareioneratinu system
rp--. .....- p r--
platform on which it is based may riot have this independence and may not be Year 2000
compliant.
• Chips are usually set to rcco size positive integers only. "00" is not positive, nor is it recognized
as an integer. Often it is interpreted as "null ", nothing, possible causing chips to cease function or
malfunction,
Areas of Concern
Critical Infrastructure:
L Banking and Finance
!not covered in this brief;
*The retail and cr.',iwi'rcial organizations, investment institutions, exchange ange h_oa_rdY. trading houses.
and resen'e systems, and associated operational or5ani_aturns, government operations, and support
entities, i in all manner of monetary transactions, including storage for saving purposes,
investment Or income purposes, e.vchange Pr payment purposes, and disbursement in the jbrifi of loans
and other financial instruments.
IL Continuity of Government Services
not covered in this brief;
*Those operations and services of'govenunents at federal, stare, and local levels critical to the
functioning of the nation's systems, i.e., public health, safety and welfare.
III. Electrical Power Systems
* The generation stations, transmission and distribution networks that create and supply electricity to
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• ehd -users so dull end -users achieve and maintain nominal functionality, including the transportation
and storage gffuel essential to that system.
Rep. Fred Perry, R- Tulsa, and Rep. Abe Deutschendorf. D- Lawton, said the "Millennium 2000 computer
problem" poses a danger to utilities such as electricity, natural gas and communications providers. A
national survey by a utilities manager from Digital Equipment Corp showed 1/3 of all utility companies
had not started to correct the problem, and another third were severely behind- One reported test for
Y2K compliance by Hawaiian Electric power utility caused the entire system to shut down.
The Y2K software problem is not insignificant; however, the embedded systems issue has not been
addressed to - the same degree. At issue is a date stamping problem inherent in "older" microprocessors
(prior to 1996).
Consequently, it affects:
• G (fossil and nuclear), transmission and distribution. and customer systems.
• Plant distributed control systems (DCS), programmable logic controllers (PLC), smart
instruments, remote terminal units (Rill), smart recorders, nuclear personnel radiation
measurement systems. etc.
• Control center SCADA systems, substation equipment such as scan, log and alarm recorders,
digital fault recorders, smart relays and breakers, etc.
• Security computers: of which there are many issues (some classified, some not)
• Building temperature controllers, residential and commercial smart meters, etc.
• Electrical Transmission and Distribution Systems
• PLC's and embedded date sensitive controls exist in transformers, protective relaying, and breaker
control.
• Date sensitive computer systems are used for forecasting electrical load demand on a given day,
hour, and minute basis.
• Date sensitive systems are used for bidding purposes in wheeling and power pools.
These examples all .represent links in the ability to distribute power. A break in any of the links
represents potential loss of ability to deliver power, and even the ability to generate power.
For example, at Iawaiian Electric Company (i1ECo), the Y2K project team identified significant
problems with its energy management system (EMS). EMS is the 'brains' of the power distribution
system at all electric companies. This system is used to remotely control transmission system breakers,
coordinate power generation schedules, compensate for large transmission line breaks, and provide
protection against voltage, current and frequency transients. HECo and their EMS system vendor
determined that EMS would crash on the rollover to 01/01/2000. This would have in turn_ resulted in
HECo's transmission network crashing, and by default, a major power outage and loss of all generating
capacity.
Fossil Fuel Power Generation
Sandy Ball, year -2000 project manager for Puget Sound Energy (WA), says they don't expect many of
the power- supply systems to be greatly affected by the date change - -so far. "Were a little ways away
from actually identifying any real critical devices," she said. "There could be some out there, which is
why we're taking a close look at it."
Why, Year 2000 Y21( Poses a Risk to Public... and Essential Services - millennium bug O hop :/ /millennia- bcs.com/hlthsmryy.hun
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Moreover, there's one problem specific to fossil generation - -time dependent supplies of fuel. The single
most important element of ensuring that fossil plants stay on -line is that the supply lines for fuel
delivery remain intact. Most fossil generation facilities have from 1 to 3 weeks of resent fuel storage
on hand at any given time, whether its coal or petroleum hased This reserve allows for minor supply
disruptions, only.
As of Nov 14, AP reported that the Union Pacific rail gridlock is causing utilities to run low on coal as
winter nears. Some utilities are attempting to replace coal with natural gas to fuel their plants, others are
trying to find alternative sources or methods of generation.
Nuclear Power Generation
The production of nuclear energy accounts for nearly 20 percent of the total domestic (US) electrical
generation capacity. Lq some regions of the country, this percentage is much greater i for example, the
Eastern seaboard of the U.S. depends on nearly 40% o of its electricity generation from nuclear
generation. The NRC has publicly stated they will require certification of Year 2000 readiness from
every nuclear plant in the country in the absence of that certification, the NRC will require a shutdown
prior to 01/01/2000. Unless a nuclear plant can prove conclusively that the Y2K bug will not impact the
safe operation of the plant or the ability to safely shut it down, the plant does riot run.
As of October 1997, most nuclear plants haven't gone much beyond the 'awareness phase of the typical
Y2K program. ft's anticipated that very few nuclear power facilities will be operational into the Year
2000.
Control Software
Though software on nuclear sites is subject to stringent quality controls, experienced software industry
professionals have expressed doubts about how reliable design -based reassurances are. Hard and fast
test data to back up assurances has not been provided_
To date, three areas of vulnerability have been identified:
1. The control program for the radiation exposure system called ALARA (As Low As Reasonably
Achievable).
Nuclear facility personnel wear dosimetry devices that measure the amount of whole body
exposure an employee receives while in the plant These devices are analyzed regularly and the
data (exposure amounts) maintained on a computer system that controls personnel access.
2. The "Training Records Tracking System" computer:
Controls access and actual work assignments for Reactor Operators, Second Assistant'Auxiliary
Operators, Maintenance Technicians, Radiation Protection Personnel, and Plant Management
3. The computer tracking system:
For plant commitments for maintenance rule tracking, hardware and operation procedure
improvements, surveillance scheduling, etc.
An example of just how "fragile" nuclear operations can be:
A Swedish nuclear reactor, Ringhals 4, was automatically shut down during a routine safety check. This
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Why Year 2000 Y2K Poses a Risk to Public .. and Essential Services - millennium bug 0 hup //millennia- bcs.com;hhhsmry hum
ivas caused when the last part of the instructions fed into the computer was missing, and when the
computer safety system noticed that the instructions were incomplete, it shut down the reactor.
Obviously no system is completely fool -proof.
Excerpts from NRC Appendix B Of Secy -97 -213
Scope Of The Year 2000 Problem At Operating Nuclear Power Plants
Because of the concerns involving a potential common -mode failure type of event...and since the Y2K
problem has the potential to affect any computer system, including hardware that is
microprocessor -based (embedded software), software, and data bases at nuclear power plants, the most
effective strategy for the NRC would he to confirm implementation of an industry -wide effort....
The level of activities by the licensees ...at their facilities varies considerably. ...The status of actions
b eing taken or planned industry -wide by nuclear power plant licensees is not clear at present.
Discussions with vendors of digital protection systems.,.conf rmed...safety- reiated initiation and
actuation systems (e.g.. reactor trip system, engineered safety feature actuation system) are not subject
to the Year 2000 concert. However, non-safety-related, but important, computer-based systems,
primarily databases and data collection necessary for plant operations, may need modification...
Examples of systems that may be affected by Year 2000 problems are:
• Security computers
• Plant process (data scan, log, and alarm)/ Safety parameter display system computers
• Emergency response systems
• Radiation monitoring systems
• Dosimeters /readers
• Plant simulators
• Engineering programs
• Communication systems
• Inventory control system
• Technical specification surveillance tracking system
Issues Considered Most Significant
The significance of the Year 2000 problems at operating nuclear plants will vary from plant to plant, ...
the staff believes that safety - related safe shutdown systems will function as intended. Nevertheless, in
the worst case, the staff can hypothesize a scenario involving a potential common -110de failure to
several non - safety - related, but important, computer -based systems necessary for plant operation ...e.g., a
licensee could he faced with a plant trip as a result of a Year 2000 problem which results in the loss of
off site power and subsequent complications in tracking post- shutdown plant status and recovery due to
a loss of emergency data collection and communications systems....
Excerpts from NRC Appendix C Of Secy -97 -213
Scope Of The Year 2090 Problem For Fuel Cycle And Materials Licensees
For fuel cycle and materials licensees, ...the Y2K potential problem involves security concerns such as:
• perimeter and other alarm systems that are computer controlled
• material control and accounting concerns, such as automatic data systems that track inventories
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within the facility and record materials leaving the facility
IV. Emergency Services
*The medical, police, fire and rescue Systems and personnel that are called upon when an individual or
cominunity is responding to a public health or safety incident where speed and efficiency are necessary.
It is conceivable that a computer malfunction caused by the Y2K problem could result in a scenario
fitting the statutory definition of a "Major Disaster" under the Disaster Relief Act. 42 U.S.C. Section
5122 (2):
" n catastrophe ...or, regardless of cause, any fire, flood, or explosion, in any part of the United
States, which in the determination of the President causes damage of sufficient severity and magnitude
to warrant major disaster assistance under this Chapter to supplement the efforts and available resources
of States, local governments, and disaster relief organizations in alleviating the damage, loss, hardship,
or suffering caused thereby."
Unfortunately, FEMA has been identified in an OMB report as being significamly behind in ifs Y2K
mitigation activities. A contact informed me that they were focused on their internal problems, and have
not begun to address the larger external issues, nor communicated Y2K problems to their local EM
offices.
The frail elderly, people with particular medical problems that may need a caregiver to perform daily
tasks, and people with handicaps, must make special plans for their safety in the event Y2K_ related
emergency service failures occur. Those who have the following conditions may be especially at risk
and should take special precautions:
• Acute or chronic respirator illnesses
• Heart ailments
• Unstable or juvenile diabetes
• Dependence on tube feeding
• Epilepsy
• Tracheotomies
• Urinary catheters
• Colostomies
• Dialysis - dependence
According to FEMA, anyone repririnw any type of lire support that uses electricity should resister with
their local Emergency Management office -- regardless of possible circumstances.
V. Gas /Oil Production, Storage and Transportation
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*The holding* facilities for natural gas, crude and refined petroleum, andpetruleunr- derived fuels, the
refining and processing facilities for these fuels and the pipelines, ,ships, trucks, and rail systems that
transport these commodities from their source In systems that are dependent upon gas and nil. {not
cv veered in detail]
On Oct 29, 1997, it was reported that "...major oil companies today rang the alarm bell, warning flee
so-called millennium computer bug could paralyze the offshore industry in the North Sea — one of the
world's biggest oil production areas "
Companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell and British Petroleum said they realize they are silting on a time
bomb and are racing against the clock to check millions of microprocessors, But, they fear smaller firms
have not yet fully grasped the threat to the oil industry.
The industry faces a gargantuan task, illustrated by the fact that a single offshore oil platform may
contain over 10,000 microprocessors. Some are deep below sea level, but all need to be checked.
Furthermore, there are over a 100 platforms in the North Sea alone. In a worst case scenario, the oil
platforms would shut down when automated systems fail to reco iize the year 2000. It is unclear how
long it would take to restart operations should a shutdown occur.
Out of Europe's 100 biggest companies, just 43 have conducted detailed investigations into the
implications that the Year 2000 could have on their systems. Not one said that its software could handle
the date change, according to a study made for US investment bank Goldman Sachs. Coupled with
supply chain difficulties, think of the potential domino effect. No figures for US companies were
available at this time
VI. Telecommunications
*The networks and systems that support the transmission and exchange of electronic communications
among and between end-users (such as networked computers).
US West has spent the past 18 months trying to figure out how the Y2K bug could cause problems with
dial tone or accurate customer service. The biggest likely impact seems to be telephone switches, key
components of the local network; many will need to be replaced. Recently US West has stated that
"None of US West's switching system vendors are compliant with their current versions of software,
however, it is expected they will comply before the end of 1998 ".
Moreover, products and services described as Year 2000- compliant by vendors may not work correctly
if interfaced with other products and services. Bill Nichols, director of service plannine at the GSA's
Federal Telecommunications Service, said a product that works fine in a stand -alone environment could
encounter big problems in an interconnected configuration. "It may result in dropped calls. We don't
know what will happen." The problem is compounded because some solutions are not yet available.
"Some of the software tixes...will not be available until mid - 1998," Nichols said. "That puts a lot of
pressure on agencies to go through acquisitions and tests by the Year 2000."
Australia's telecom Telstra admitted in its prospectus (page 34) that "There can be no assurance that this
programme will be successful or that the date change from 1999 to 2000 will not materially affect
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Telstra's operations or financial results." It further specifies that Telstra might be a casualty of system
failures if other networks err third -party suppliers trip each other up.
Banking giant Citicorp slammed telecommunications suppliers for holding up its drive to be year
2000-compliant by the end of 1998. In a withering critique during a US General Services Administration
conference, Citicorp said suppliers had failed to give accurate infouuatton on whether their products
would be year 2000 ready.
Citicorp identified a "laundry list" of 11 areas at risk, including voice, access networks, E -mail and
Internet networks, and private circuit networks. For example, on voice, it said problems could arise
with:
• intelligent PBXs
• intelligent voice responses
• interfaces to the hosts
• automated dial -out systems
• voice recording systems
• voicemail
• switch detail reports
Citicorp also said suppliers had:
• no common millennium compliance definition
• no consistent way of achieving compliance
• started too late to achieve compliance
• provided nebulous, misleading and incorrect information
• not viewed date change fixes as a "maintenance patch ", but were instead embedded in new
releases which were subject to development schedule delays and additional costs;
• and been unaware of the date bug issues in bought -in components.
Their concerns have prompted the GAO to mount a Y2K investigation of telecommunications
companies.
VII. Transportation
*The aviation, rail, highway, and aquatic vehicles, conduits, and support systems by which people and
goods are moved_fronz a point -o %origin to a destination point in order to support and complete matters
of conunterce, government operations, and personal affairs.
Global Positioning System
The gond news is that GPS will not have a "Year 2000" problem- The had news is that CPS System
Time will roll over at midnight 21 -22 August 1999, 132 days before the turn of the millennium. On 22
August 1999, unless repaired, many or all GPS receivers will claim that it is 6 January 1980, 23 August
will become 7 January, and so on. Some manufacturers have already solved the problem, but many have
not.
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Traffic Systems
According to the 9 May 1996 Washington Post, most traffic lights in downtown Washington D.C. went
onto their weekend pattern, rather than their rush hour pattern. The problem was reportedly caused by a
new version of software installed in the central system that controls all of the traffic lights, providing
timing. The result was mile-long traffic jams. By the afternoon rush hour, the software glitch had been
"Fixed". It wasn't clear whether that meant they reloaded the old software or fixed the bug.
The Long Island Rail Road, recently tested 3 level crossings after a train passed through one and its
driver noticed that the gates did not operate. All three crossings "use the same microprocessor ". The
failure proved to be reproducible at two out of the three crossings.
Supposedly, there are 3 major traffic systems manufacturers in the US. An unconfirmed reports states
that 2 of these manufacturers are involved in a copyright infringement lawsuit -- with each other. A
pending lawsuit prevents either manufacturer from making changes to their software or hardware until
settled. Given that similar eases have taken years, it's likely that they will be unable to make their
systems Y2K compliant by the year 2000- It is also likely the public and municipalities may never be
informed.
Air Transport
According to the FAA, a significant number of their computer -based mission critical systems may be
adversely affected by the Year 2000 date change. These include:
• National Airspace System (NAS), including those systems supporting Surveillance, Navigation,
Enroute, Terminal, Oceanic, and Traffic Flow Management Automation.
• Safety and Administrative Systems: Mainframe and PC,LAN systems.
On 7 November 1997, Dutch airline KLM said it may ground some of its aircraft on January 1, 2000 if
certain routes turn out to be unsafe due to millennium hugs. Due to the complex web of interlinking
computer systems, such as air traffic control and radar systems, air carriers have to be sure that there are
no weak links. If we have the feeling by the year 2000 that we don't control the whole chain of
transport...then we won't fly that route." spokesman Hugo Baas told Reuters.
Cynthia Hubard of Federal Express Corp_ said a person who refuses to fly because of safety concerns on
New Year's Eve 2000 isn't overreacting. "That's pretty good advice."
To highlight the ubiquity of software problems in the air transport industry, "Flight International"
reported in May 1997, that: "Software problems are delaying the completion of the world's most
advanced air - traffic - control centre ". The opening has been delayed by 15 months and "stems from the
unusually high number of'bugs' which prime- contractor Lockheed Martin has to remove from the 1.82
million lines of software code at the heart of the system."
Automobiles
Electronic Engineering Times reports that automakers are facing runaway growth in lines of code as
microprocessors lake over automotive functions. "Software is where the problem is today." said William
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bower, VP of research at Ford. "Today, if you change a line of code, you're looking at the potential for
some major problems. The typical auto has 10 to 15 processors; high -end cars can have as many as
80..." An engine controller can have 100,000 lines of code" [according to a Bosch VP].
Anyone who says software in cars isn't a problem has forgotten the recent General Motors Corp recall,
About 292,860 Pontiacs, Oldsmobiles and Buicks from the 1996 and 1997 model years were recalled
due to an engine software problem. (3M said a faulty engine system sequence can cause a backfire
during start -up, possibly resulting in a cracked intake manifold which could erupt in a fire.
Moreover, the automotive industry is concerned about it's suppliers because of it's Just -lit-Time method
of inventory management. More than 1,300 automobile suppliers have been warned they have less than
1,000 days to correct the Y2K glitch in their computers or face closing up shop. The warning comes
from the Automobile Industry Action Group, which is telling its members that unless the "Year 2000"
problem is addressed soon, it will he too late for them to head off a company crisis. The warning letter
was signed by the 3 vice - presidents for purchasing at Chrysler Corp., Ford Motor Co. and General
Motors Corp.
Railroads
in the transportation industry, particularly the railroads, the date 0110112000 has the potential to be
much more than just a 'minor disruption' of service - -to them, and to society as a whole. Nearly all rail
car movement and inventory is tracked by date sensitive computer programs.
"There is a computer in Washington, DC that tracks freight cars; the application is a 1970's TCAM
system program. The manual switching yard in Arlington /Alexandria has been closed dowel for years,
and the switching is done on the fly, distributed and managed by software. It is no longer possible to
manually switch freight cars." ...Cory Hamasaki. HER Inc.
At this time, Union Pacific is experiencing gridlock of unprecedented proportions. AP reports that the
massive traffic jam has already cost hundreds of rail customers an estimated SI billion, and the delays
have spread to several major competitors. Businesses have streamlined operations to reduce inventory,
which has left them more susceptible to supply disruptions. Plastics, chemicals, automobiles, and the
US military, are also caught up in UP's logjam, while the third largest corn harvest ever is left in bushels
on the ground.
According to a Union Pacific Corp. railroad company spokesperson "...an emerging debacle apparently
caused by the merger..,with Southern Pacific Rail Corp., has resulted in rail car and shipment
nightmares that are crippling deliveries of commodities to critical industries across the country_
Thousands of rail cars...are tied up or 'missing' i a mo r a ss o f computer generated nightmares that no
one expected." There does not appear to be an immediate resolution in site as we near the end of the
millennium.
VIII. Water Supply Systems
*The sources of water, reservoirs and holding facilities, aqueducts and other transport systems, the
filtration and cleaning systems, pipelines, the cooling systems and other delivery mechanisms that
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provide for domestic and industrial applications, including systems for dealing with waste water and
re ,fighting
Wastewater and sewage treatment facilities are highly automated and environmental emissions
monitoring and control systems depend on year - 2000- vulnerable embedded controls. Malfunctions due
to year 2000 problems could lead to polluting releases and emissions that could endanger local
residents. One mission - critical program where work on year -2000 issues was lagging, according to a
recent status report, is the pump - station network - -a system that monitors stations to keep track of
sewage and waste -water flows.
in August this year, a malfunctioning computer in Boulder, CO was blamed for live water main breaks
that cut service to about 40 homes, flooded basements and garages and turned city streets into rushing
streams. A computer controlling water pressure gave inaccurate readings. prompting a city worker to
open the mains. Some residents and businesses were left without water for over a day.
Essential Systems and Services
IX. Chemical Process Industry (CPI)
According to CPi, the Year 2000 problem may be catastrophic for the chemical process industries, the
bug could cause innumerable shutdowns and horrific accidents. "The consequence of a computer
'hiccup' in process control is much more severe than what would happen to your word - processor
program on a PC," points out Dave imming, head of the Y2K team at Fisher - Rosemount Systems.
Though many firms are well on the way towards Y2K software compliance, Honeywell Chairman and
Chief Executive Officer Michael Bonsignore said one of the most worrying areas is the field of
industrial process control. At one large chemical process industry company ($5 billion in sales), "A lot
the DCS's, PLC's, lab instruments and so on may have problems," says the IT manager. At Shell, the
Y2K team is working to inventory equipment with embedded chips. "We have to see what we have, and
address the vendors for each," says Ron Quiggins, Director of Renew 2000 at Shell Services Co.
Additionally, many instruments and "smart" units throughout a plant may be controlled by microchips
with Y2K problems as well. "This is a problem specific to the chemical industries, as you have many
unique, embedded systems," says Year 2000 analyst Peter de Jager. "In a chemical process, you just
can't afford to have your process control doing something it shouldn't."
Last year, for example, a smelter in South island, New Zealand, shut down because programmers had
failed to take into account that 1996 was a leap year. For the CPL the implications are serious. it's only
too easy to imagine the shutdowns, accidents and explosions that the Y2K bug could cause in systems
throughout industry.
X. Environmental Systems
Environmental systems are found in hospitals, schools, office buildings, factories, etc. international
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• Data Corp. of Framingham, Mass., recently asked Honeywell Controls whether its "smart buildings"
would properly control heating and air conditioning systems after 2000. George Haynes, research
director with IDC S government division, said l loneywell told him it had no way of knowing unless the
building's original contractor could provide a building's exact specifications.
At Yale University, for instance, building environment systems are controlled by a series of computers
which adjust temperature according to the season; four separate systems control heating- The Yale
Herald On -line was able to confirm that at least one of these companies will soon release software
patches for its systems. Representatives from the other three companies were unavailable for comment.
Oct 30th, Honeywell publicly stated that some of its products (e.g. office environmental systems) are
still not immune from the millennium bug, but it hopes they will all be fixed in time.
XL Food Supply And Distribution
The form of food distribution we use is entirely vulnerable to the Millennium Bug- Food stores are
critically dependent upon computers for records of purchase and re- stocking, ordering and delivery, and
all forms of payment processing between themselves, their suppliers and their banks. Stores rely upon
computers to know how much has been sold of each item, what to order from suppliers and central
de ,ts t r the shelves, how to load its fleets of trucks and to route them to their destinations. It
uses computers to price every item on its shelves, to read the codes on those items, and calculate the till
receipt. Without functioning computers the store cannot operate. There have been problems already.
In August, a small market owner sued an Atlanta -based cash - register company for allegedly providing
equipment that cant handle 2000 dates. The suit, charges that - 1 EC America cash registers shut down
when customers offered credit cards with expiration dates past 2000. A TEC spokesman blamed the
credit -card industry.
Moreover, testing is an aspect that worries managers at Spartan Stores Inc. in Grand Rapids, Mich., a
$2.7 billion grocery wholesaler. They've sent their code offshore to be converted, says Patrick Cox,
Spartan's Y2K project manager. "When it comes back, well have to call in more experienced people to
test it," he says. "That's when this is going to slap everyone in the face."
XII. Home Systems
Automated devices will affect the average consumer as well. Below are examples of common, everyday
consumer products that could have problems handling the century date chance. Though not usually
critical in nature, problems for the public can arise.
Thermostats
Several companies manufacture varieties of programmable thermostats. In a test of three different
examples, two of the three stopped working when the year was changed to 2000. One recorded the date
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` Is 1900. Of the two that stopped workine, one could not be restarted.
Possible consequence of failed thermostats: pipes freeze and burst, the resulting damage both inside and
outside potentially immense. The elderly or infirm may be at risk from lack of heat. And- to compound
the problem, if the telephone systems are also malfunctioning the local heating contractor can't be
called. The results may continue to snowball.
Microwave Ovens
A brand new microwave oven in a company cafeteria was reprogrammed to December 31, 1999 and
allowed to rollover to January 1.2000. As a result. the microwave ceased operating. the display went
blank, and it couldn't be restarted. It was taken to a local service shop for repairs without explaining how
the problem occurred. The service company had to replace the computer circuit board in the microwave.
Though not a crisis, it can he a major inconvenience for those with limited physical ability. The
implication here is that microwaves, and perhaps VCRs, entertainment systems, etc., may need part
replacement or new equipment purchased. Though not a h2lard, the cost and inconvenience may be
great.
MIL Non-Emergency Health Care Services
Hospitals, clinics, home -care providers, nursing homes, assisted living centers, etc., are all potentially at
risk from the millennium bug. But, according to a recent Gartner Group survey of industry responses to
the problem, Healthcare ranked near the bottom of all vertical industries with respect to their Year 2000
activity: a whopping 88% was still in the "awareness" phase. Their failure to mitigate the problem can
have a far reaching and negative impact on society as a whole.
Particular areas of concern are:
Patient Care/Treatment
An aspect usually overlooked is the human aspect. interruptions in critical infrastructure —such as phone
or transportation delays- -can impact patient care staffs ability to respond to a staffing need. It may also
interfere with patients ability to reach a care facility.
A different example of risk is a program used to plan radiation therapy (teletherapy or brachytherapy).
The therapy could be affected if it uses only a two -digit year to calculate the radiation dose parameters.
An error in the time since last calibrated could lead to an incorrect treatment prescription.
Excerpt from NRC Information Notice 96-70:
Year 2000 Effect On Computer System Software
This issue may affect NRC licens‘cs in many different ways. For example, computer software used to
calculate dose or to account for radioactive decay may not recognize the turn of the century, which
could lead to incorrectly calculated doses or exposure times for treatment planning. Other examples of
software that may be affected include security control, radiation monitoring, technical specification
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turveillance testing, and accumulated burn-up programs.
Excerpts from NRC SECY -97 -213 - Appendix C;
Scope Of The Year 2000 Problem For Fuel Cycle And Materials Licensees
For fuel cycle and materials licensees...the most significant concerns are those related to patient
treatment. In this area, a large number of users of radioactive materials for medical diagnosis and
treatment are involved, as well as a number of manufacturers of medical diagnostic and therapeutic
equipment that contains computerized measurement and recording devices. The potential impact of
failure of these devices due to Year 2000 problem is large, based on their widespread use throughout the
country in hospitals and clinics.
Medical Equipment and Devices
Medical devices include over 100,000 products in more than 1,700 categories. The products range from
simple everyday articles such as thermometers, tongue depressors, and heating pads, to the more
complex devices such as fetal stints and kidney dialysis machines. Meta Group's Doug O'Boyle says
there is a "vacuum" of information on medical devices, with industry groups essentially clueless
concerning the scope or impact of the issue.
ECRI, a company specializing in the evaluation of medical devices, has found few of these companies
are willing to share Y2K status information. A recent survey of over 40 manufacturers produced, just S
responses.
In June, 1997, the Center for Devices and Radiological Health of the FDA, informed medical device
manufacturers that "some computer systems and software applications currently used in medical
devices, including embedded microprocessors, may experience problems beginning January 1_ 2000 due
to their use of two -digit fields for date representation." in addition, the letter indicated that
computer- controlled design, production, or quality control processes could be adversely affected. It also
applied to those manufacturers that use radioactive material in their medical devices.
Specifically, the issue is that many medical devices use computers or software, including: embedded
microchips which are part oil or components of devices: or non- embedded software used with, or to
control, devices or record data from devices; or individual software programs which use or process
patient data to reach a diagnosis, aid in therapy or track donors and products
• Examples of embedded chip devices include:
o infusion pumps in intravenous drips
o heart defibrillators
o pacemakers
• intensive care monitors
o 'vu'' 1's
o CT and PET scans
o dialysis
• chemotherapy and radiation equipment
o laboratory, radiology and other diagnostic systems
• monitoring and control systems, including environmental and safety equipment
• Examples of non - embedded software devices include:
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o conversion of pacemaker telemetry data
7 conversion, transmission or storage of medical images
o off-line analysis of FFG data
o dh ital analysis and �raphiccal presentation of EEC data
o calculation of rate response for a cardiac pacemaker
o perfusion calculations for cardiopulmonary bypass
o calculation of bone fracture risk from bone densitometry data
Intravenous drips /Infusion pumps
infusion pumps in intravenous drips are calibrated to deliver the correct drug and fluids dosage to the
patient, but become inaccurate over the passage of time and need recalibrating every three months. An
embedded chip registers when the last calibration took place_ and compares it with the current date in its
internal time- clock. If no calibration has taken place, the pumps "issue an alert and shut down altogether
on the basis that they are probably dangerous "_
Pacemakers
Every time a heart pacemaker detects an irregular heartbeat it sends -a shock to the system and then
records the time the event occurred. This information is regularly downloaded to a computer to be later
analyzed by medical personnel. Whenever the information is downloaded, the pacemaker resets itself If
the software in the receiving system starts recording faulty times for the shock deliveries, the
cardiologist could misinterpret the results and administer improper medical care.
Recently, the U.S. Veteran's Administration interviewed the top five pacemaker manufacturers to see if
they were aware of this potential problem. One company was aware of it and said they would have it
corrected by the end of 1997_ Two companies said that the problem would be fixed before the Year
2000, another before 1998. Finally, one company flatly refused to acknowledge the problem and when
pushed declined to discuss the topic any further. Personal contact has yielded no response whatsoever.
Defibrillators
A physician in a heart clinic in Spartanburg, South Carolina, related that a new shipment of heart
defibrillators the clinic received recently were recalled by the manufacturer. The defibrillators use an
embedded device that calculates the time since last maintenance - similar to elevators. Like an elevator_
if the time since the last maintenance check surpasses a certain time frame, the defibrillator will not
operate— thereby reducing the possibility of malfunctioning on a patient. The manufacturer voluntarily
recalled their products when they discovered they were not desigied to handle the change in century.
Heart Monitors
Heart monitors display a standard EKG trace in a box, along with a large numeric heart -rate indicator.
When connecting a patient to the monitor, part of the procedure involves setting a target heart rate. If
the programmed rate i e xreerMM during exercise the EKG trace turns red, but th is no a alarm.
There are unconfirmed reports that the monitors sutler from the same potential problem as the
defibrillators.
Hospitals
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According to the Third Annual Healthcare Technology Survey of 1,700 hospitals —released by
information technology law firm Gordon & Glickson P.C.--over 40% o f respondents won't complete
conversions until 1999 and less than 20% have begun to make the necessary fixes; 18% of respondents
are planning no action to protect their systems.
Healthcare Information Management Systems Society
YEAR 2000 PROJECT STATUS IN HEALTH CARE
• 50% had year 2000 project management responsibility
• 25% have no teams in place in their institutions,
• 25% Project team in place
• 1 % One application complete
• 0,5% Substantially complete
• 0,5% Budget is enough
• 50% No budget
it is highly unlikely that the impact of serious Y2K computer failures will be limited to information
systems alone. Public infrastructure failures are also possible. Hospitals can't operate without power,
water or police, ambulance, or fire protection. Public transport is essential to many employees and
patients. Hospitals and health care systems must anticipate and plan for operational disruptions and
business failures.
Operational Disruptions
Health care facilities may experience operational disruptions caused by failures in computer systems,
embedded chips, business dependencies, and public infrastructure. Computer problems can occur in an
organization's own systems, or in the systems of third parties upon which the institution relies.
Other than medical devices, embedded chips are "hard wired" into other pieces of equipment that may
be critical to patient services or hospital operations. This equipment is often the responsibility of the
vendors, not the hospital.
These systems include:
• Fire alarm systems, including detection, sending, receiving, and suppression units
• Security systems, including sending/receiving units, video and surveillance systems, and badge
readers
a Telecommunications equipment, including telephone switching equipment, call management
systems, pagers and cellular phones
• Building infrastructure, including HVAC, energy management and lighting controls, emergency
generators and lighting, uninterruptible power supplies, and elevators
Business Failures
Health care systems cannot function effectively without reliable support from medical insurance payers,
claims clearinghouses, banks, and suppliers of hundreds or thousands of other goods and services, all of
which are potentially vulnerable to Y2K Failures. Even iF a hospital takes care of its own Y2K problems,
it may still experience business interruptions if the third parties upon which it depends fail to do so.
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•
For instance, what if the blood hank isn't able to provided uninterrupted, reliable operation? Or the linen
service, food suppliers, oxygen suppliers, reference labs, etc.? What if their problems make it difficult,
slow, or impossible to take orders, manage inventory, or make deliveries? How long can a hospital
function without critical goods and services? At what point do shortages start to impact quality of care?
Other Medical Risks
Most elevators have embedded systems that monitor the amount of time between maintenance checks. If
these automated devices calculate that the allowable time between checks has been exceeded, most
elevators will eo to the bottom floor in the elevator shaft, and take themselves out of service until
maintenance is performed. This could be annoying in one building and potentially life threatening in
another. Using the stairs isn't always a viable alternative, particularly for the handicapped, those with
certain medical conditions, n f em erg en c y personnel seeking to reach a victim.
Implications for Public Health
According to "The Year 2000 Issue Implications for Public Health Information and Surveillance
Systems ", by Centers for Disease Control - "ft is vital that the public health community begin
aggressively addressing this issue to avoid serious negative programmatic effects across public health."
All organizations are affected by this issue from a business and administrative perspective. However,
public health information and surveillance systems at all levels of local, state, federal, and international
public health are especially sensitive to and dependent upon dates for epidemiological and health
statistics reasons. Date of events, duration between events, and other calculations such as at::: of people
are core epidemiological and health statistic requirements.
Moreover, public health authorities are usually dependent upon primary data providers such as physician
practices, laboratories, hospitals, managed care organizations, etc., as the source of original data. CDC,
for example, maintains over 100 public health surveillance systems all of which are dependent upon
external sources of data. This means that ifs not sufficient to make only internal systems Y2K compliant
in order to address all of the ramifications of this issue.
XIV. Monitoring/Warning systems
Radioactive material waste tanks are monitored and some are controlled by automated sensors and other
devices. They all work on date- sensitive trend analysis. Power plants PLC's control environmental safety
systems for detecting changes in humidity, temperature. CO2 levels. Extreme changes are monitored.
Some changes are based on duration or spike measurements. Problems have occurred already.
At midnight last Dec. 30. the Tiwai Point aluminum smelter in New Zealand shut down. Each of the 660
process—control computers hung up simultaneously as the date turned to Dee. 11 - the 366th day of 1996,
a leap year. The year 2000 is also a leap year.
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XV. Power And Heating Supplied By Gas, Natural Gas, And Oil
Fuel deliveries of petrol and diesel are heavily dependent upon computerized plastic money for retailing.
Oil companies use computers extensively for scheduling deliveries to the pumps. They are also
dependent on the supply chain to maintain their inventory.
Moreover, a British Gas Trading computer system recently crashed when they tried to enter a fi ve -year
payment plan. The system could not cope with any year beyond 1999. Although the crash was minor and
had no impact on the quality of c service, the fact that the system "keeled over" shows that
warnings ahout potential Y2K problems are not all hype. Home owners, apartment dwellers, medical
facilities, etc., may all suffer if they rely upon gas or oil for heating or other uses.
XVI. Other Potentially Critical Systems
There are many other potentially critical systems. A part;al list of those that have been identified
includes:
• Security systems for badge readers, surveillance systems, parking lot gates, and vaults.
• Time- dependent controls such as parking lot lighting, and programmable thermostats controlling
HVAC. Some devices work only during certain times of the day and/or on certain days of the
week.
• Power- management functions for HVAC usage and control, UPS (uninterruptable power supply)
backups and related components, off -hour power availability for lighting the building.
• Home - detention systems (ankle bracelets worn by defendants under supervised release)
Criminal Justice System
Mike Holland, who manages work on the King County's (WA) criminal- justice system, traced the
computer path arrested suspects follow' once officers deliver them to jail:
• First, there's the SIP (subject -in- process) system to identify the defendant;
• Next is JEMS (jail - electronic- mugshot system), followed by
• AF1S {automatic- fingerprint- intbrmation system).
fAll three are integrated, and all are sensitive to dates, including hooking dates, dates of release
and a "book ofarrect, "
• Then there is PTM (pretrial management system), w hich i integrated with SIP and used to
determine whether an inmate qualities for pretrial release. them • If inmates must be held in jail, there's a system that classifies m according to criminal history,
mental issues, physical condition and level of risk for housing placement.
Failure to fix the system would probably mean that King County would have to reject new prisoners on
Jan. 1, 2000. "The system would terminate abnormally," Holland says, "when it tried to compute a
person's release date."
Security /Access Systems
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Examples of recent problems:
* At the Terrebonne Parish Jail, Houma LA., all the inmate cell doors o automatically late one
night because of a computer malfunction. It was the third time in two months that computer problems
caused a security breach at the prison, said Terrebonne Parish Sheriff Jerry Larpenter. Fortunately, all of
the jail's 464 inmates stayed in their cells. Larpenter said that he got the call about 9 P.M. "J didn't
appreciate it. I was hoping it was not an April Fool's joke..."
• A hotel had recently changed over to an electronic card system on their doors rather that the traditional
lock and key system. A guest inserted the keycard into the lock and was unable to open the door. A
'master key' card was tried which failed to open the door. Maintenance tried what was supposed to be a
super master card - -with the same result. The manager arrived with a laptop computer connected to a
probe which fit into the keycard slot. Only then did they succeed in opening the lock.
pVOTE: This anecdote illustrates !ire problem with no! including manual override in a cOmpuler
i s r a m
._._ -_,._ including z
controlled .vvvrcm. Had the laptop not been able to convince the lock to open, hrute f orce was probably
the only option.)
* There are also "security systems" which automatically hook into every apartment's telephone line. in
the event of a power failure, these systems attempt to dial their monitoring stations to call for service.
There is apparently no time-out interval for this; these alarms simply seize all affected phone lines and
keep them out of service until their backup batteries run down (about S hours). This means that a power
failure also guarantees loss of telephone service. The risks for such embarrassing lack of foresight, are
all too obvious.
The Risks Forum recently discussed the engineering of critical and safety systems, and how they should
be designed to fail in a "safe" mode. Examples of this are electronic card - access locks with no manual
overrides, and a "security" gate which fails into a "lockdown" mode. This sort of "safe" mode might be
appropriate for a prison, hut certainly not for the only entrance/exit of a residential community - Had a
fire broken out while in "safe" mode, lives may have been lost.
' De in bons by the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection)
Sources:
;American Society of Safety Engineers :Associate Press
a ssociation for Computing Machinery ;Atomic Energy Commission
iATSDR
Automobile Industry Action Group
British Gas Trading3ritish Telephone
:;Capers Jones 'Center for Devices and Radiological Health.
!Center for Disease Control and Prevention ;Chemical Process Industries (CPI)
!Chemical Processors Directors Group ;CIO Subcommittee on Y2K
;CIO's Year 2000 Resource Center ;Citicorp
2i qi F -,
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` 1Consolidated Edison 0
,'Department Of Defense Software Program •
"Managers Network
'Digital Equipment Corp. "Doug O'Boyle, Meta Group
?Dr. Leon Kappelman lDr. Yardeni. Deutsche_ Morgan. Grentell
;ECRI :Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) .}
;Electronic Engineering Times ';Energy Information Administration (DoE)
(Federal Aviation "mission 'l.EMA.
,'Financial Times °.Fisher- Rosemount Systems
'Florida State Government Year 2000 Task ;Forum on Risks to the Public in Computers
1 Force and Related Systems
';Gartner Group :General Accounting Office (GAO)
.'General Services Administration's Federal :;George Pataki, Governor NY State
(TeleconrmunicatIons Service
GIGA :(Jordon & Glickson P.C.- Third Annual
�I Technology Survey
• mien Electric 'Healthcare Information Management
? ....... :r2: : .. ... . _ ... ....,'Systems Society
Iloneywell Controls IEEE Computer Society
;Institution of Electrical Engineers (IEE) .'Intematiotial Data Corp.
RISESS J.P. ! Morgan Securities
.;King County, Washington Merrill Lynch
,,. t Association Information - on .� "Nuclear Commission ..
!Naional Associion of State In oi Nuclear Regulatory Commission l NRC) ;
':Resource Executives (NASIRE)
: Nuclear Utility Software Management Group ;NY Times —
I(NUSMG)
';Peter de Jager - Year 2000 Information Center ;President's Commission on Critical
,FInfrastructure Protection
; !Puget Sound Energy .Rep. Abe Deutschendorf, D- Lawton
"Rep. Fred Perry, R -Tulsa ;Risks Digest and Forum .
Rx2000 Solutions Institute '; Seattle Times, Peter Lewis - journalist
""Shell Services Co. Smith Kline Beecham
' t`or Information Management (Simnet I :Society of Information Management (SIM)
`State of Ohio - Department of Public Safety ;State of Washington
;Steven H. Goldberg, Cosgrove, Eisenberg & "Supervision Control and Data Acquisition
i Kile y ,P :C :............ j( SCADA ) ........., ..
(Task Force on Technology in Government for ,;Taskforee 2000
,[New York City Council :
,jTCSE: Technical Council on Software `TechWeb
.iFagineering
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Why Year 2(100 Y2K Poses a Risk to Public... and Essential Services - millennium bug http: // millennia- bcs.com/hlthsmry:btm
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U.S. Department of Health and Human ,;Union Pacific Corp.
!Scrviccs
;United Airlines ;US West
ititiiities and Year 2000 i W ail Street Journal
iYale University, The Yale Herald On -line
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Special Report - Six Steps httpi/ wwiv.y2ksupply.com /sixs:eps.hun
O O
Inca
The Six Steps
To Helping Others
Understand "h
the Y2K Threat Is Real
A common sense guide to increasing
your Year 2000 survivability
by waking up the people around you
by the Webmaster at
www. y2ksupplv.corn
Copyright' 1998 Ariel Marketing, Inc.
This freeware document may be reproduced. distributed, and copied
so long as it is not rn—ad/fled and is reproduced in its enttiirety.
Credit must be given to w.w-y2ksup ll. om
Y'3F M
For more information on Y2K survival and prepa redness,
Visit htto: / /www.y2ksupplv.com
i �i i i,yiii 9,32 X.;
Special Report - Six Steps http ;; ;;, y2ksuppl,.comtsixsteps.htrn
0 O
1 e
Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER
THIS DOCUMENT iS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. The information contained in this document represents the
current view of Mat Marketing, Inc. on the issues discussed as of the date of publication. Because Arial Marketing, Inc. must respond to change
in global conditions, it should not be interpreted to be a commitment on the part of Arial Menketng, inc. and Arial Marketing, Inc. cannot guarantee
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PURPOSE AND FREEDOM FROM INFRINGEMENT.
Table of Contents
Disclaimer *
Table of Contents *
introduction *
Talking about Y2K is very difficult for most people
The six steps to Y2K awareness
Overview of the six steps to Y2K awareness
Step t: isolated failures of critical it components are likely *
Step 2: Understand the interdependence *
Step 3: Simultaneous hit magnifies the threat *
Step 4: Realize your personal dependence on the infrastructure *
Step how small the supply pipelines really are *
Step 6: Why the public cannot be told the truth *
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Conclusion *
Prologue: What will actually happen? *
Introduction
So you've kept your eyes open and you realize Y2K has the potential to be a lot worse than
most people around you realize. You were probably one of the more alert students back in your
school years, and even today, you're far more observant than other people realize.
Because of all this, you're far more aware of the Y2K issue than nearly everybody around you.
And every time you try to explain what's going on, they completely tune out and don't
understand anything you're trying to say. They might even call you a radical or a whacko.
Welcome to the club.
Talking about Y2K is very difficult for most people
That's because most people react with strong emotion when you suggest their lives may be
severely disrupted. Life's hard enough for them right now, see, and they sure don't want to hear
any more bad news. Even if it's probably correct.
Face it. A lot of people would rather drive without headlights because that way, they won't see
the edge of the cliff When you "light up the road ahead," it scares them. Not because they
don't think it's real: it's because they just didn't want to think about it. period.
Unfortunately, this mode of thinking is more than just dangerous to them, It's also dangerous to
your The less prepared the people around you, the more danger you're in. Therefore, it's
always in your best interest to educate the people around you about the reality of the Y2K
threat.
This special report tells you exactly how to do it.
The six steps to Y2K awareness
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If you go through this procedure and back it up with facts, you'll find great success in getting
people to understand this issue:
Overview of the six steps to Y2K awareness
1. Realize isolated failures of critical infrastructure components are likely
2. Acknowledge and understand the interdependence of (global) infrastructure components
3. Realize the significance of every infrastructure component being struck at the same time
by the millennium bug (simultaneity)
4_ Acknowledge your own dependence on infrastructure components
5. Become aware of the thin -ness of the supply lines
6. Understand why public cannot be told the truth
Well go through these one at a time.
Step 1: Isolated failures of critical infrastructure components are likely
By this, we mean that some power plants are going to be shut down. Some water treatment
facilities will fail. Some banks will experience bank runs and some telecommunications centers
will be out cold. Don't forget transportation, hospitals, and food deliver, either.
In fact, here are the components we mean when talking about "infrastructure components:"
• Water treatment facilities
• Food and farming
• Defense
• Transportation
• Hospitals S emergency services
• Power
• Banking
• Law enforcement
• Communications
• Fuel
• Government
Put them all together, and you have a nice acronym:
"We FeeD THe PuBLiC FiGs"
(ignore the vowels)
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Once you get people to acknowledge that some of these elements are going to fail, you've
done the hardest part. But if people don't get this part, they'll never understand the rest. That's
why you have to back this up with the best evidence available.
You can find a lot of this evidence on the Y2KSUPPLY.COM site. Try these URLs:
http://www.y2ksupply.com/index.asp?PaaelD=Statistics
http://www.y2ksupply.com/index.asp?PanelD=embedded
http://www.y2ksupply.com/index.asp?Paael0=Alerts
The best way to get people to realize isolated failures are likely is to show them the reports. For
example, quote from the "Hearing to Discuss Chances The Millennium Bug Will Cause the
Nation's Power Grid to Fail," chaired by Senator Bob Bennett of the Special Committee on the
Year 2000 Technology Problem (June 12th, 1998 statement in Washington D.C) You can find
the link at:
http://www.senate.qov/-y2k/statements/61298bennett.html
Among the interesting tidbits:
"I have some disturbing news to report this morning. In order to prepare for today's hearing, I directed Committee
staff to conduct a formal survey. The survey was of modest proportions including only ten of tha largest electric,
oil, and gas utility firms in the U.S. I wanted to know the status of iheir Y2K preparedness- While The survey is not
statistically representative of the entire industry, it does include geographically dispersed firms engaged in all
aspects of power generation, and gas and electricity transmission and distribution.
had anticipated that I would he able to provide a positive report on the Y2K status of these public utilities.
instead, based on the results of this survey, I am genuinely concerned about the prospects of power shortages
as a consequence of the millennial date change.
Let me share a few of the survey findings: Only 20 percent of the n ins surveyed had completed an assessment
of their automated systems. One firm did not even know how many lines of computer code it had. Experts have
testified before my banking subcommittee that any major firm that has not already completed its assessment, can
not hope to become `r'2K compliant by January 1 2000.
None of the utilities surveyed were assured after making inquiries that their suppliers, venders, and servicers
would be Y2k compliant. Utititfes are highly dependent on servicers, suppliers, and other upstream activities to
transmit and distribute gas and electricity. In fact, many power distribution companies are ultimately dependent
on foreign oil imports.
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None of the firms surveyed had completed contingency plans for Y2K related eventualities. Even though all of
these firms are required by their regulators to maintain emergency response plans, none had completed a Y2K
contingency plan. My concern is That they probably don't know what contingencies to prepare for "
For more evidence, you can go through all the alerts posted at:
http://www.y2ksupplv.com/index.asp?PagelD=Alerts
... and gather your own evidence. It's in abundance. In nearly every article or story, you'll find
another high -level industry or government official saying something quite frightening about Y2K
compliance.
Grab the quotes from the main page of the site. These include:
"This is not a prediction, it is a certainty -- there will be serious disruption in the world's financial
services industry... It's going to be ugly." The Sunday Times, London
"Failure to achieve compliance with the year 2000 will jeopardize our way of life on this planet for some
time to come." Arthur Gross, Chief Information Officer, IRS, who later quit out of frustration
"Y2K could be the event that could all but paralyze the planet." Newsweek, June 2, 1997
"The year 2000 issue is potentially the biggest challenge ever faced by the financial industry." Central
bankers of the G-10 top ten industrialized counbies
"The public faces a high risk that critical services provided by the government and the private sector
could be severely disrupted by the Year 2000 computing crisis." General Accounting Offre of the U.S.
Congress
"More than one -third of the most important fgovemmenti systems won't be fixed in time." House Panel
Y2K report issued September 1998
"We're concerned about the potential disruption of power grids, telecommunications and banking
services." Sherry Burns, CIA
These are words from people who often have the least motivation to scare people. If anything,
they are often holding back on their words. Yet you still hear dire warnings from people like Joel
Willemssen, Director of the Civil Agencies Information Systems (DCAIS), Accounting and
Information Management Division (AIMD) of the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO). His
statement before the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology
(SGMIT) of the Committee on Government Reform and Oversight (GRO) of the U.S. House of
Representatives teaches us a lot. For one thing, just announcing his statement reveals a
bloated hierarchy of committees and subcommittees that, by their very nature, are virtually
paralyzed in their ability to get anything done. If you've ever heard the joke, "What is a camel?
It's a horse built by a committee." ... then you know exactly how much gets done in these
things.
For the sake of saving the forests, i'il use the following abbreviation when i refer to Mr. Joel
Special Report - Six Steps O http littn.y2ksupply.com/sitsteps.htni
VVillemssens's statements: (DCAIS -AIMD- GAO - SGMIT -GRO).
To continue with some of Mr, UVillemssens statements (DCAIS -AIMD- GAO- SGMIT -GRO) on
September 3, 1998:
Link at:
http: / /www. house.gov/ reform /emit /hearings /testimony /980903iw. htm
"According to the report of the President's Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection, the United
States - -with close to half of all computer capacity and 60 percent of Internet assets —is the world's most advanced
and most dependent user of information technology. Should these systems —which perform functions and
services critical to our nation —surer disruption, it could create a widespread crisis. Accordingly, the upcoming
change of century is a swccping and urgent challenge for public- and private - sector organizations alike.
Because of its urgent nature and the potentially devastating impact it could have on critical government
operations, in February 1997 we designated the Year 2000 problem as a high -risk area for the federal
government.
The public faces a high risk that critical services provided by the government and the private sector could be
severely disrupted by the Year 2000 computing crisis. Financial transactions could be delayed, flights grounded,
power lost, and national defense affected."
By using the statements given here and gathering your own from the Y2KSIJPPLY.COM web
site (and elsewhere), you should be able to pull together a large amount of convincing evidence
from credible sources. The most complete web site, containing thousands of articles,
statements and various Y2K facts, is www.aarynorth.com
Why would they spend the money if it wasn't real?
If the above statements aren't convincing enough, pull together the dollar figures now being
spent to solve the ¥2K problem:
Source: '97 and '98 Securities and Exchange Commission Filings
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Company Year 2000 Cost 'j Revenues Number of r
Estimates 1997 (Millions) Employees
Citicorp ,i $600,000,000 I $34,697 ! 93,700
f
i General Motors $565,000,000 ; $166,445 608,000
BankAmerica ? $380,000,000 ! $23,585 90,500
1
t Merrill Lynch j $375,000,000 $31,731 56,600
1 GTE $350,000,000 ! $23,260 114,000
I AT&T $350,000,000 $51,319 128,000
Manhattan s -.4
$300,000,000 '' $30,381 69,033
}
d J.P. Morgan $250,000,000 $17,701 16,943
Bell Atlantic ! $250,000,000 $30,193 ! 141,000
Sprint ' $200,000,000 $14,873 51,000
r
Bankers Trust $200,000,000 $12,176 18,286
j
7 Owens Coming $179,000,000 $4,373 ? 24,000
i. i .}
Nations-Bank $155,000,000 ' $21,734 80,360
3M Corporation ! $70,000,000 $15,070 75,639
I
Charles Schwab ( $45,000,000 $2,298 12,700
Textron $45,000,000 $10,544 64,000
i i
Totals $4,314,000,000 $490,380 1 1,643,761
5 Averages } $269,625,000 1 , $30,649 I 102,735
,
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'In addition, the federal government will spend $6.3 billion. And these are just a few examples.
In reality, thousands of companies are cumulatively spending billions of dollars in an attempt to
solve this problem.
Show the person the chart above and ask this question:
"Doesn't it make sense that these profit- minded companies and budget- restricted government
offices would only spend this money on -a real problem? if the problem didn't- exist, wouldn't
they keep the money as profits instead ?"
in fact, it goes beyond that. The problem is more than real: it's a matter of life and death for .
these companies... and this government. If Citibank can't get compliant, it will go bankrupt. if
the federal government can't get both the iRS and the payment services.compliiant (Social
Insecurity, Medicare, etc.), it will be replaced by one that can. These kind of expenditures are
not just for fun, they're for survival.
Once you can get your family and friends to understand this point, you're past the hardest part.
Step 2: Understand the interdependence
This is a nebulous topic_ But with a little help from the DCAiS -AIMD- GAO- SGMIT -GRO, we
can shed some light on it:
America's infrastructures are a complex array of public and private enterprises with many interdependencies at
all levels. These many interdependencies among governments and within key economic sectors could cause a
single failure to have adverse repercussions. Key economic sectors that could be seriously affected if their
systems are not Year 2000 compliant include information and telecommunications; banking and finance; health,
safety, and emergency services; transportation, power and water, and manufacturing and small bu
The information and telecommunications sector is especially important. In testimony in June, we reported that the
Year 2000 readiness of the telecommunications sector is one of the most crucial concerns to our nation because
telecommunications are critical to the operations of nearly every public- and private - sector organization. For
example, the information and telecommunications sector (I) enables the electronic transfer of funds, the
distribution of electrical power, and the control of gas and oil pipeline systems; (2) is essential to the service
economy, manufacturing, and efficient delivery of raw materials and finished goods; and (3) is basic to responsive
emergency services. Reliable telecommunications services are made possible by a complex web of highly
interconnected networks supported by national and local carriers and service providers, equipment
manufacturers and suppliers, and customers.
In addition to the risks ass with the nation's key economic sectors, one of the largest, and largely
unknown, risks relates to the global nature of the problem. With the advent of electronic communication and
international commerce, the United States and the rest of the world have become critically dependent on
computers. However, there are indications of Year 2000 readiness problems in the international arena. For
example, a June 1998 informal World Bank survey of foreign readiness found that only 18 of 127 countries (14
percent) had a national Year 2000 program; 28 countries (22 percent) reported working on the problem; and 16
countries (13 percent) reported only awareness of the problem. No conclusive data were received from the
remaining 55 countries surveyed (51 percent). In addition, a survey of 15,000 companies in 87 countries by the
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'Gartner Group found that the United States, Canada, the Netherlands, Belgium, Australia, and Sweden were the
Year 2000 leaders, while nations including Germany, India, Japan, and Russia were 12 months or more behind
the United States.
The Gartner Groups survey also found That 23 percent of all companies 030 percent of which were small
companies) had not started a Year 2000 effort. Moreover, according to the Gartner Group, the "insurance,
investment services and banking are industries furthest ahead Healthcare, education, semiconductor, chemical
processing, agriculture, food processing. medical and Jaw practices, construction and government agencies are
furthest behind. Telecomjmunicationst, power, gas and water, software, shipbuilding and transportation are
Laggards barely ahead of furthest- behind efforts."
Interdependence is the key to Y2K vulnerability
When you get down to the core of the issue, interdependence is precisely the Y2K problem.
One of the best examples currently being tossed around is the auto-manufacturing industry.
Ford uses 20,000+ suppliers to acquire parts for building its cars. The question to ask your
family and friends is:
"Let's assume that 5% of all business fail during Y2)C You r might think that's not too bad- But let
me ask you this. Since -Ford depends on 20,000 suppliers to build cars, do you think they can
complete their cars if only 19,000 of those suppliers can provide parts ?"
The answer, of course, is no- You can't complete a car without all the parts — just like you can't
complete a banking transaction without all the parties being compliant. In fact, the list of such
examples is huge:
• You can't generate a single Watt of power unless the banking, transportation, power, law
enforcement and fuel infrastructure components are operating at near - perfect compliance
• You can't product clean water unless the water treatment facilities have power
• You can't pay employees of any business unless the banks are open and working at
near - perfect compliance
• You can't protect your country from foreign threats (terrorism or otherwise) unless you
can pay your military, and you can't pay your military if the banks aren't open.
Furthermore, you can't feed your military unless the food & farming component is
- operating at near - perfect compliance.
• You can't deliver food to the cities unless transportation is operating, and you can't buy or
sell food unless banks are open
• You cant fuel the farm equipment that produces the food unless the fuel infrastructure
component is operating, and many farmers can't plan efficient crops unless satellites are
operating
• You can't provide mass medical care unless the government can reimburse doctors for
Medicare payments, and you can't do anything in the hospitals unless the power is on
• You can't operate a stock market without good communications, and you can't have
communications without power. In an interesting chicken- and -egg twist, you also can't
have power without communications because many power plants and hydro dams are
controlled remotely
The interdependencies are too numerous to list here, obviously, and they create an enormous
web of inter - connected parts. While this fact is often hidden from view in modern daily life, it's
always there.
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Here a are five examples you can point to that demonstrate the interdependencies (and
consequential vulnerabilities) o f modern society:
a In 1998, the Galaxy IV satellite spun off course, causing the instant failure of most pagers
(and cell - the United States
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• in 1998, AT&T's frame relay backbone collapsed for a few hours, putting tens of
thousands of business "out of business" while they attempted to fix the problem.
Businesses lost computer connections, credit card processing capabilities, and other
telecommunications services.
• in 1997, -a tree-fell on a power -line in Idaho, causing the immediate loss of electricity to
over 300.000 homes in California and Nevada
• in 1996. a single line of code that was programmed incorrectly caused a cascading failure
of AT&T's switching networks, resulting in a massive failure of long distance services
covering the Eastern United States until the - problem - was fnaity tracked down and
reprogrammed
• Coming in August of 199A the Global Navigation System (OP w ill incu a
pre - programmed error that will cause many GPS systems to calculate the wrong date.
More +1a /±DC system '11 1024 This h 1 rl h
IYlor�. specifically, UI ' i wi yOs�a4II 'r'w 1
i„ los�. IWS't weeks, , Inc i Qx�'.. already been
announced by the US_ Navy and is due to a known programming error that can't be fixed
decal Is the satellites are already in orbit.
All this during normal times, without the millennium bug. if our modern society is this vulnerable
already, imagine what the effects will be when Y2K hits.
Step 3: Simultaneous hit magnifies the threat
In the examples given above, each outage, though severe, was isolated. The rest of society
could function until the problems were fixed. Altho we ' v e all see th impact of isolated
events like the ones listed above, or even voluntary events like the UPS strike of 1997, nobody
OIIYS. has sew!! the III ipWJI. of dimLIwJ IGLLJs IOIIU!G>r in every infrastructure tJ Ji3ii l..
Whereas in normal times you have other areas that can take up the slack, during Y2K, you
have none. The banks will be struggling with computer failures at the exact same time the
telecommunications industry will have their own problems. Transportation will be in a state of
chaos at the exact same time fuel may be difficult or impossible to acquire. Emergency
services will be down while law enforcement is simultaneously threatened. The simultaneity of
these events magnifies the threat on a logarithmic scale, where each new failure compounds
the seriousness of each previous failure.
In recognizing this, DCAIS -AIMD -GAO- SGMIT -GRO says:
"The following are examples of some of the major disruptions the public and private sectors could experience if
the Year 2000 problem is not corrected.
a liniess the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) talks nmch more decisive action. there could be grounded or
delayedf7igl0s, degraded safely, customer inconvenience, wkl increased <ti'tliiit costa
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• • A ircraft and other military equipment could he grounded hecaune the computer Twenty used to Schedule maintenance
and track supplies may tint work. Further, the Department of Defense could incur shortages of vital Items needed to
sustain military operations and readiness.
• Medical devices and scientific laboratory equipment may experience problems beginning January I, 2000, tight
computer systems, safiware applications, or embedded chips used in these devices ctnllain two ields fbi' year
repre3eniatlon.
• According to the Basle Committee on Banking Sup,ems7oil --an :nternatto11al committee o banking supervisory
alalwrilk hill areit , address the Year 2000issue would cam.e?anknaittslitah {1113 tot'X rietttt'one:i.!iotrtl
problems or ewe battkri pici
The federal government also depends on the telecommunications infrastructure to deliver a wide range of
services. For example, we route of an electronic Medicare payment may traverse several networks-those
operated by the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of the Treasury's computer systems
and networks, and the Federal Reserve's Fedwire electronic fonds
/J transfer .system- In addition, the year 2000
could cause problems for the +i+ai+y facilities used by the feat yov'cim+i+eiu t+h+at 'were built or renovated w/Till!}
the last 20 years and contain em har$lnrt computer systems to control mon it o r o r asst t in o p e rati o ns For
years and •.,./y\ r systems to control. . J, ,., v M V. u.,..r,.v.
example, bonding .security systems, elevators, and air conditioning and heating equipment could manureetion or
cease to operate.
Agencies cannot afford to neglect any of these issues. if they do, the impact of Year 2000 failures could be
widespread, costly, and potentially disruptive to vital government operations worldwide. Nevertheless, overall, the
government's 24 major departments and agencies are making slow progress in fixing their systems. In May 1997,
the Office of Management and B:. get (OMB) reported that about 21 percent of t; v mission-entreat systems
(1,598 of 7,649) f ^r Meese departments anti agenc es were Year 2000 compiiant. A year later, in May 1998, These
Vepo! tm,nts and PSIG + *1 rep_or ed that c,91 vi the 7,336 mission-ctiticae il in their current inventories, } � 1 !! 5} + } ° +iy ��"�' � 1 }ltv�llLUl l�J, UI
about 40 percent were compliant. However. unless agency progress improved dramatically, a substantial
number of mission - critical systems will not be compliant in time_
Step 4: Realize your personal dependence on the infrastructure
This realization falls squarely under the "we take it for granted" category. And we do! In a timme
when we watch our parents or grandparents in utter amazement as they pick up a single grain
of rice-and put it back in the bowl (because they lived through the Great Depression, see?), we
are generally wasteful, resource - insensitive people. We throw away almost as much as we
actually consume because we know we can "get more" by just going down to the grocery store.
If that's closed, Taco Bell is open, right?
Step 4 is usually fairly easy to realize once you ponder the reality of the situation. We do
depend on these infrastructure components, and almost none of us are truly aware how much
we do.
Electricity alone is something we take e ntirel y for granted To demonstrate this to yourself, try
this:
• Go to the main circuit breaker box of your home or business and shut off the main power
• Stay for ho if y o u fly live them
L.ay !J! the l�,res_.. !U! 24 hours and see if you can actually !.uL' there
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if you survive that, try shutting off the gas and the water, too. See how long you make it before
you return to "the infrastructure."
As another exper'iiment, try to spend an entire month eating only the food you have in your
house or your garden. Most people wouldn't last a week, much less a month. Yet if food
supplies experience a shortage, we may all need to live -on our supplies for months!
Another good way to get people to realize their dependence on the infrastructure is to have
them agree to write down everything they use during any single day that costs money. If it
costs money to use it or consume it, they should write it down. Formost people, you'll end up
with a list that's hundreds of items long, covering everything from gasoline to lunch. If you pay
money for it, it probably depends on the infrastructure. - Furthermore, money itself depends on
the infrastructure.
Step 5: Realize how small vie auppi pipelines really are
This is another point that isn't so obvious. After all, the shelves always look stocked full when
we go to the grocery store, don't they? Don't these companies have warehouses full of food in
the back
Not really. The invention of "just in time!! delivery systems means that food arrives just in time
to avoid leaving a shelf empty. Walmart, for one, has revolutionized this concept and
dramatically cut costs in the mean time. One reason their goods are so affordable is that
Walmart isn't paying for storage facilities and locking up capital in inventory. Their computers
track inventory and automatically administer the next day's orders, which are shipped in just in
time to keep the shelves full_ Fven a single missed delivery day has an impact at Waimea, and
if they miss a week you'll realty notice it on the shelves.
The same is true at grocery stores. More importantly, it's also true with banks. Banks stock
�," t handle requests f cash by d Th don' ll
actuay keep "just t^n{izg!! reserves to !l - !c�{u�S$la sir! s,an!! ;` vc�,�l�ss�l�_ They don't actually ncep ysJ's%r
money in the back room, waiting for you to ask for it. This is called "fractional reserve banking,"
and it's the backbone of our money supply and loan system. it's healthy in boom times, but it
also creates potential problems when the supply of reserves is very small and the demand for
withdrawals is very large.
According to the Federal Reserve, only $150 billion in reserves actually exist to cover current
deposits of around $3.6 trillion (although they are increasing that number by printing an
additional $50 in currency) Link is at:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/cyber/tech/ctd311.htm
That's a 4% overall level of reserves, which means for every $100 you have deposited in your
bank, they l d $4 at,,.. .
il sitting t e rn if on, d k for $-I nn they can
uta!!!\ t•!sy have 0!LPU ±!v !per a LQfl!ly , slick. !i 7v51 go! I, and ask !v! your w .vv, h
Li u_?a,
UI 11
1 _i >ryy 'P.a. AN
Special Report - Six g. O O hapli nnv y2ksupply.com'sicsteps.htm
0 easily give it to you, but if just 4% of th depositor ask for their money, the bank does broke. If
depositors
h half the people ask for their mone onl the first /l °l net it This is nailed "hank, run"
all the fryri,dII ¢?k IVI \11011 II Irl l6r, only 111G first ,l actually �S�ljS IS. 1119 !Q called 11 41 111 1 441 1
.1 it's .. legitimate li
l. likelihood during ...h:.. t... t4. Federal n ht
¢1!k, !t 0 a
u a+°vtil! s_U!!!!y a tam which is wale use ! SiLG^ra! Reserve is right now getting
J L.. a:_�. J I mcn bills _.
- piepaieu -_'y printing au aud!i!_' lr'!a!_�Dw- uiniu! ineurreney.
Here aresome action items you can follow if you'd like to check out just how thin the supply
lines really are:
• Tour the Waimart facility in Arkansas and learn how they schedule just in time deliveries
• Contact your local grocery store and ask how many days of extra food they keep on hand
• Contact your bank and ask for a financial disclosure statement — they have to give you
one by law. Then look for what percentage of reserves they actually keep (as a % of
deposit obligations)
• Contact a food supplier in the long -term storage industry or the survival industry. Ask how
many months it will take them to ship your order
The more you investigate all this_ the more you'll find the supply lines are sor th in many
areas of society; money, food, goods, fuel, and so on.
Step 6: Why the public cannot be told the truth
Simple. To inform the public of the real threats would actually cause many of those threats to
unfold. it's classic panic - psychology. If you tell people "corn supplies are critically low," they will
run out and buy corn to avoid the shortage_ This behavior will cause the corn shortage to
worsen, creating a self - fulfilling prophecy.
This especially holds true in the banking industry. If you warn people that their deposits might
ho thr tho t th mo nu t, d th ?AI nal:s° th h r l the
threat to deposits.
For this reason, the public cannot be — and won't be — told the truth. No public official can
possibly acknowledge the validity of this statement without simultaneously violating it.
This author believes various departments of the federal government are now engaged in a
policy of disinformation regarding the real Y2K threat. Although some isolated, brave
individuals like Wiiiemssen will continue to speak out about the dangers lurking ahead, most
government officials are taking the well - trampled path of, "Hey, everything is fine!" You hear
this from the FAA, Social Security, the IRS, Medicare, and even the Dept. of Defense. Yet we
continue to see admissions that those statements really aren't true. As stated in the
DCAIS-AIMD- GAO - SGMIT -GRO report:
"OMB's assessment of the current status of federal Year 2000 progress is predominantly based on agency
reports that have not been consistently reviewed or verified. Without independent reviews, OMB and the
Presidents Council on Year 2000 Conversion have little assurance that they are receiving accurate information.
In fact, we have found cases in which agencies' systems compliance status as reported to OMB has been
inaccurate. For example, the DOD Inspector General estimated that almost three quarters of DOD's
35,99 934 Aryl
sp Report - Six Steps O O http_'r , ^ m ks�.ppi; c isi' :steps.htm
6 tnisinn- critirat .systems reported as compliant in November 1997 had not been certified as compliant by DOD
components. to May 1998, the Department of Agriculture reported 15 systems as compliant, even though these
were replacement systems that were still under development or were planned for development (The department
removed these systems from compliant status in its August 7998 quarterly report. )"
The state of California also recently admitted announcing misleading status information
regarding their Y2K progress. In ortseto the realization That many California State
computer systems could not possibly be fixed in time, one prominent state legislature
Congresswoman is on the record saying, "Cross your fingers."
Again, if she had told the public what they really needed to know, she would have said, "Get
your money out." Or. "Stock up on food." Instead, she says, "Cross your fingers" which is not
devoid of really helpful quite ng of the li s th dice t,
only v�vvid 9. any rea „ +��, advice, it's also quite rey$ali,� G+ +'s+�,- �,- dice -vivs attitude
now seen by many people in government who feel helpless to solve the issue.
Yet they realize they still can't tell the public, because the "madness of crowds' is a well known
phenomenon. The L.A. Riots are just one example of what people will do when they share a
common, amplified-emotion. It anger can cause people to burn .'Sown their own neighborhoods,
pull innocent victims from their vehicles and beat them to death, and unleash lethal firearms
attacks on firemen trying to save their homes, what will unbridled fear cause if the people are
told the truth?
Conclusion
While some people will never "get it,” the six steps covered in this report can help you get
through to the people who still have some critical thinking ability remaining. in a world of
emotion and reaction, it's sometimes difficult to use step -by -step logic and reason to explain
Y2K to people, but this recipe is the best Eve found.
It works. Use it and you'll find that you can get the people around you to understand where
you're coming from. Naturally, the more they understand Y2K, the less of a threat they'll be to
your survival should the worst happen.
To learn more about Y2K survival, preparedness, and events. visit www.v2ksupply.com and
sign up for the free a -mail alert.
Prologue: What will actually happen?
Nobody knows! Intelligent, educated people can certainly disagree on the predictions of what
tatitt happen elu ting Y'7K, anal virtli12th; nnhnrty mAlill ha exertiy right flhans is simply tan
unpredictable} Th author believes there is a small but legitimate chance that nothing of
coreecluence- ill occur, but there is a much larger chance that a "bad case" scel,ario will
appear_ Even the "worst case" scenario seemingly has a larger chance than the "no case"
oio6 _..gg 3,34 Aye
S R . - Si': Steps hrrp _ cteri ,>
0 0
6 cenario, gi a ll the ev iden ce mentioned in this report.
♦ I to the l deadline, we'll learn . If made thr 109
�Vr �i gS�it- 'aif�+sel .SV LSS's- avavtuaS \l�Lillll)ESv, YYG ' S! S�LiS S! more. S! �rVgf ��� is throughout LSJS 1a �)
we may reduce the chance of a worst -case scenario, but if the same misleading information
continues to be dished out to the public, and the government committees continue to `Book into
it" instead of actually fixing it, were in for some very tough times ahead.
And because we don't know what will really happen, it is prudent to prepare for the worst. That
means taking basic precautions on food, heating fuels, and medical supplies. it means creating
an alternate, hand powered water source and thinking long and hard about what will happen in
the cities if - Y2K strikes and "social order melts into social disorder. These are topics worthy of
serious consideration given that no society has ever faced this particular problem.
If you'd like more information on getting prepared for Y2K, the Y2KSUPPLY.COM web site
offers a complete "Y2K Sourcebook" that gives you detailed shopping lists covering exactly
what you need to hl y to gat preparers for Y2K item b item. It also lists 17 key s rvival_ industry
suppliers th t se ll preparedness products at 50% or even 25% of the price you'd pay
: "I Items .d include rd f 4 t tools, H Ir heating 4 li ht di I li
retail, 1 \a)1I� covered ) I IVI�4Vb IVVV. water, \\)0l4�, shelter, 11¢Qil1l� I]t llgll } medical
self - defense, money, cooking utensils, and more_
For more information, visit
http://www.y2ksupply.com/index.asp?PagelD=SourceBook
And be sure to visit the Y2K site that started it all:
http://www.garynorth.com
Copyright q 1998 Anal Marketing, inc.
This freeware document may be reproduced, distributed, and copied
so long as it is not modified and is reproduced in its entirety.
Credit must be given to www. y2ksupply.com
For more information on Y2K survival and preparedness,
Visit http: / /www.y2ksupply.com
For the want of a nail, a shoe was lost, O 0 http - // nnc transforin.org /transform /tic /Overview him
0 • r
Overview of Y2K
For the want of a nail, a shoe was lost,
For the want of a shoe, a horse was lost,
For the want of a horse, a message was lost,
For the want of a message, a kingdom was lost
And all for the want of a nail.
As everybody who is keeping up with the Y2k issue knows, there are hugely different perceptions about
what its consequences will he. There are many reasons for this divergence in views. Some come from
different readings of the technical problems. Some come from optimism or pessimism about the
flexibility of the systems which must deal with the problem. It seems possible that the most critical
reason for radically different perceptions is the degree to which people are conscious of the ways in
which our economy and society are dynamically interlinked. 1 have quoted a piece of doggerel at the
beginning of this piece to remind us that the problem we currently face is not new. Systems have always
been dependent on their weakest link. Small failures at one point in a system inevitably have the
possibility of cascading so that they cause catastrophes. The underlying reality is not new.
The dangers of our time in history arc however radically enhanced by the approaches we have chosen to
develop in the last century. Computer technology is everywhere. We now have mechanical and social
systems that depend on the correct functioning of computers and computer chips. Probably the best
known example is the automobile. Not so many years ago, it was possible to mend one's own car and, if
necessary, to make imaginative adaptations. The capacity to keep cars running in Cuba, despite the
American embargo, is a clear example of the resilience of earlier generations of automobiles. Today,
however, it is all too often impossible to mend cars without the complex diagnostic machinery of the
modern garage. The owner has become dependent on service provided by others. This difficulty is
frustrating enough but the real dangers lie at another level. We have chosen to create systems which
depend on completely smooth functioning. Storing inventory has become a cost that nobody wants to
incur. So systems are set up to ensure that needed parts arrive "just in time." Interruptions create
immediate and serious repercussions: a pattern shown in recent General Motors strikes where two plants
can close down essentially all production. Another example developed with the United Parcel Service
strike that showed how vulnerable America was to disruptions in delivery service.
But there are other supply issues that are rarely discussed. World food stocks are at historically low
levels. Any significant disruption in transport, or because of climate changes could rapidly lead to
famines in many parts of the world. In addition, markets respond to shortages with major price
movements which can be extraordinarily disruptive. And this brings us to the final area of concern that I
can treat in this short piece. We live in an immensely speculative universe. In the last twenty years, we
1 of 2 i0 /G /98 3.5$ Phi
For the want of a nail, a shoe was lost, 0 Ottp Uwww transform. org /transform /tle /Overnew.htni f .
have moved from a world in which most money transactions were connected with production and
consumption decisions. Today, on the other hand, almost all financial transactions are designed to make
money. Speculators flock into countries and abandon them as changes in perceived realities take place.
All of these factors create immense vulnerabilities that cannot be understood in advance of actual
events. I know of no competent analyst who argues that all Y2K date glitches can be fixed in advance
even if we work truly creatively in the 18 months that are left to us. How the consequences of failures of
equipment and systems will cascade is therefore inherently unknowable.
The absolute necessity, therefore, is that we create resilient human systems that can cope with events
that by the very nature of the realities we confront cannot be foreseen. The current tendency toward
panic and survivalism will get in the way of building resilience at the sub- neighborhood, neighborhood
and community levels. We need to spend less time working out what will happen on what dates and
more being prepared to deal with whatever arrives.
The best image I have is running the rapids. One does not expect to be able to predict every aspect of a
river_ even if one has run it before. If one is on a new river. all one can do is make sure that the most
competent people are choosing the best course as new dangers appear. This is what we must do if we are
to flourish in the conditions which are now emerging. We must create networks that will be able to
respond to developing realities. This means that we must abandon the bureaucratic styles that have
served us well in more stable times and create learning institutions, learning communities and learning
societies. We know enough to do this. Will we have the nerve to shift sufficiently rapidly to be ready for
the challenges that are coinciding with the movement into the twenty -first century.
Credit line. Robert Theobald has been working on fundamental change issues for 40 years; his latest
book is Reworking Success. (New Society.) He is currently creating media approaches which will
permit people to come to grips with the issues explored above. Contact him at theobald @iea.com if you
want to know more.
2 of 2 10 /6/98 3 59 PM
•
O U -utic°.s.in!� ;- ne!' -n arc...e /nud al.lit:
CI
Nuclear Reactor Cooling Pools threatened br Y2K: Uncontrolled
nuclear releases possible in 48 hours of power loss
This report by Mary Olsen is in preparation for presentation to the NRC Nuclear
Regulatory Commission
i work on nuclear waste issues for a DC NGO (non - government organization) and have become
deeply concerned — activated —on the question of loss of off -site power at nuclear power reactors,
not only out of concern for the core, but also fuel pool cooling.
I hope it is obvious to all concerned that prudence dictates that nuclear power reactors should be
off -line prior to the dates of any possible disruption due to date - sensitive information media. It is
just too big a gamble. However, this does not address all, or even most of my concern.
Al! reactors depend on off -site power for the juice that runs key safety systems such as the links
between the reactor core and the control room. They have back -up power in the form of diesel
generators for situations where this power flow is cut.
The majority of reactors in the US do not have the capacity today to link fuel pool cooling systems
to the hack -up power generation at the site. Further, in all hut one case, the only back -up is diesie
generators which have proved on more than one occaision to be unreliable...and are limited in any
ease by the supply of diesel.
A very creative vision came in a conversation recently: reactor operators should install in situ
electricity production on reactor sites with sustainable energy sources such as wind, solar,
geothermal or hydroelectric, depending on the resources of the area.
The reason this is crucial is that irraidated fuel generates heat from the huge amount of
radioactive decay still happening after being removed front the reactor core. This heat is so intense
that if the fuel is not actively cooled, the pool temperature may rise to the point of boiling. Coolant
lost due to boiling, if not replaced, will lead to exposure of the fuel to the air.
For the first two years out of a reactor, the fuel is so hot that it will melt if not cooled. Fuel that is 2
-- 5 years out of the reactor is still generating enough heat to cause a spontaneous pyrophoric
reaction — combustion. Not a pretty picture. In many reactor sites, these pools are outside of
containment.
Chernobyl was the melt down of one reactor core, the worst industrial accident in history. Many
of these pools have 20 years cumulative fuel or more. We have never seen a fuel pool meltdown,
and 1 sincerely hope that we never will.
The amount of time before a still pool starts to boil depends on how recently the core was
unloaded. if it has been a couple of years (the reactor is due to refuel soon) then the pool might
under some conditions have as much as a couple of weeks before boiling. If however the reactor
has just refueled and extremely hot fuel was placed in the pool very recently, then the pool may
Y /nucl= x,?.h!m? h!ir,: 'w�, n.us.�si inlc�un.nalmsz d r.ud g , 00 t ni.,!
.
• toil as soon as 48 hours if not actively coaled.
I an} moving, forward on bringing this situation to the attention of the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission...but 1 think that others should be aware of this situation in setting 1 priorities and
preparedness.
There is one reactor in the US that has hydro- electric back -up, it is Duke Powers Oconee reactor.
However, it is not clear if the fuel pool pumps are hooked to this back -up source, and from what I
can find out, it seems that this is not an unlimited source since it uses the resting potential of an
artificial lake. Since most reactors are on some water source, this may be the quickest and most
viable approach that could be taken to insure that whatever other crises we may face, our land and
assets are not also highly radioactive.
Mary Olson
maryorn;ige.apc.org
Nuclear Information & Resource Service
1424 16th St. NW Suite 404 Washington, DC 20036
voice: (2 02)328 -0002 fax: (2 02)462 -2183
website: http: / /www.nirs.org
W. ;Itirlt in L:'irtf,ISSIE<St F ft`LtSCt!7k Ni
http: /fwww.interport.net/ -- warpeace /y2k.html
2 of 2 L2/5/98 417 PM
en fe&s ci m fere:tt...,t th r nit ccreidecsh ie v&n?91I p?7 /Cicb_Fro nt'U t W.00M hmil
O 0 1
S' t '
4t #Nk C,kott.JLi herutces ..-.. --
iS4 ;;;S:711
ta "<° m 14 t at n n• ►a
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11 )OJ L AND LT Li
;liF } GLAZE K:'ii MA_ C.AMARA'S x- Traxl rugs SITE
Linktt °'s . Army fears civil chaos from millennium bug
Other Globe sites
v.v Huge deployment would deal with fallout from computer failures
eGe OULtcc':nclo:: Tuesday, October 27, 1998
JEFF SALLOT and JOHN SAUNDERS
•
Front pang* rxwws Ottawa and Toronto — JEFF SALLOT
• Compass in Ottawa
JOHN SAUNDERS
Araumefts essay in Tor
• From the archives
Report on_ pusiness The Canadian Armed Forces have been ordered to spend the next 14 months
• hoii tH
• w:: cart preparing for what could be their biggest peacetime deployment -- tens of
• E..`• icrit: .:.` thousands of hoops spread across the country and frigates standing by in
• cold n s major ports -- in case computer problems in 2000 nrin
• �e,:i,,J,.i�� J l� p F S civil chaos.
Os :, . -....
Top ,1000 ..,,.
• Ann Reports The army is studying everything from the number of flashlights and batteries
.: it will need if power is out for weeks to whether military air - traffic- control
field equipment should be set up at civilian airports.
�z
• Columns
Spin ts skuties Logistics officers are plotting where to position vehicles, fuel, tents, cots,
rTth_rl. P:,m,,.° ration packs and other supplies. Signals officers are trying to figure out how
• Gn e yeite�s keep a
t k high government officials in communication if commercial sy stems
_ r high —
a Arts R_ I_ojc(sre f
v - News
• C.uiaiiutr
Rules for the use of force are being drafted should soldiers have to make
� ::naks arrests or hack up police dealing with riots and looting.
•
=errs srlumss As police, fire and other civilian emergency services make their own plans,
- Book news
• Op:: k ;c.; ::a military commanders have been told that meeting the threat of the Year 2000
w „ r, bug is their highest priority and will be the focus of all training from January
aCommentary on. Equipment purchases that do not contribute to the effort are to be
postponed.
• 4 ^!Cpxp<
:Aricth L'. ”.. ; ;ti
;:.fv:, ^ ;'Faecty No one knows whether a common programming flaw -- a CPC /nil - 10y crriall
t,' :1,^ rtih- ma C ,tf dealing w ith A b eyon d 1999 -- w ill cause cascading failure in
• Lives Lived the world's computer systems,knocking out in the dead of a Canadian winter
• Real Shy sales 1.:..,. -, that run al.:.. J traffic lights i., a
. r,- �i .:. ;: .r >:a: -P machines that run everything ng from traffic li ts to nuclear reactors.
- Au nn.. l . r of history's - .. , r - , t
it could turn out to be one llr 111JlUTY J `'..,t'eiitanl7GI1Y11aXCS. but the armed
Nafional personals fnrrac arr. Tnlr,n/r nn rhanrac
1 VlJ 1l /4'10 ISY3
a.m.: f rs ci.a drone from milmmirrm bug 7+t1^ !/.o.a "r. fhmintwn...lmnil ream tlnrcimm�cn ODAI11 tTrailflN: uml
c r a • Online personals 'w,„ xa.....,,.,,.g t.x, ...raft.......
O Globe History
Customer service The effort is called Operation Abacus, after an ancient Chinese
- Subscribe secure bead- and - string calculator that needs no power and is not susceptible to
"= glitches. A 24 -page "warning order" was sent to military commanders,
reriional headquarters and reserve units across the country nearly two months
:What's new aao
*Site snap .,
viSite search "There is a potential for disruption of maior infrastructure systems th
aContact us may require Canadian IIOrw'o support to civil authorities," the order bef,ri io.
a Link to The Globe mks... der been .. until ._: a ar..-. _R_i_ _ to co-me ..... h first
1 ttl4 4uffiniaauoi have uLt:tt 1Vlilt until llltu-r9uvl:tttuct to Lotto: up with 111J1
and Maid t__c -. t___ r_.. a r -_ -. .t.. .._.- rtnn
drafts of plans that will he relined right Up tU Jail. I, 2000,
9 6.dveci sing
the success of the operation depends on ''public confidence in the
government's ability to manage and provide leadership in dealing with the
rill i•t.:' =.:: x:�.: d. &c t year 2000 problem," the order says.
• , ' e Navy captains have been told their ships may have to be docked to serve as
garrisons, power plants, field hospitals and soup kitchens.
LAttma �i!
�
fin land the ntfiriat wnrct_rI ce crenarin wnnfhl have 11 catchers
Tlh @: b• 1 (l 4 Q " rir rrl.n<, a, 1nnt`ner rac :fete l a ant1 rnrt-inn in h f cj,i
7..iFi°'iStWaii PerTwir60II'. '.a ,,,. ' ..... ... . , t Ow
r ( fit 1!'tfo (
no tat, iuc amity Says it has Boo m no fdoutct Must ptcsIntg, WCCMCIIU
"+LORE ! I warrior) into service. Rumours in reserve circles suavest the held three could
reach more than 60,000, including many non - volunteers, if such an order
"tGLOBR-rneer Sae „ were issued.
Such talk was not diminished by an article this month on the Year 2000
ci id}fSFrtzl s ua,gyx.w l i effort in the Maple Leaf, an official army magazine. Lieutenant - General Ray
Crabbe, a lust - retired deputy chief of defence staff, said soldiers need not
- worry about missing their 1999 Christmas holidays.
SSUE.�:�that�l t
"Act f as chrietnhae goes, T don't thing 'in,, coin <l elepinv K0,0 troops away
from their homes at Christmas , especially from a morale point of view," he
"Cm v U . thing t Nei..
was quoted a5 saying. n tut not sure . you can say the Barite for New
xr__ _ r_-
cal rs ny C. rr
Almost everyone knows about the problem by now.
Traditionally, most computers recorded years in two digits: "98" for 1998,
"99" for 1999 and so on_ When "00" arrives, some computers may think it is
1900 or some other base year.
Some may be uncertain of the year or even the day of the week. (Dec. 31,
1999: is a Friday; Jan. 1, 1900, was a Monday, That does not compute ) They
may act strangely or shut down, paral complex systems.
Or maybe not. The Year 2000 problem (Y2K for short) has been called both
a death sentence for industrial civilization and a fraud perpetrated by
20;; tii%i?g ii 82iri
Army feors civil ci, €os from mi%min,..bng - Mtn -t t...=..,., th eg i o , eon ,..nil h
0 0 t
t • n ^ . u rn . tar t,:n,
„
Whatever billions dollars i' f! of work will 1
w nateycr it is, vu irri5 � dUlala and millions of hours C r
wmn Wirl have
been lavished on it before she end of next yeas. Greying, out -ol- fashion
mainframe programmers have found themselves commanding wages as high
as $1,000 a day, at least temporarily, in the rush to fix countless lines of
code.
If the troops are out in the cold, they will have plenty of company. Police
forces have begun warning their staffs not to plan vacations around the turn
of the year.
The RCIvMP's 16,000 officers have been told to hook no time off from nee.
27 1999 t Mar 15, 2000 a t l 1 th scope o f th Y71( probl
becomes clearer.
T_ 00n lie , of 27 19n
Toronto's S 5,vvv police officers have been given no-go dates o, Dec. � 27, 1999,
to fan. 9, 2000, and Vancouver's 1,150 officers have been given Dec. 29,
1999, to Jan. 14, 2000. Calgary police are considering the same dates as the
RCMP, although no order has gone out.
Montreal's fire department says there will be a I'2K vacation ban but has
announced no dates. The Toronto department has no special ban but says
December and January have customarily been no -leave months because of
e xtra fires associated with candles, fireplaces and space heaters, among other
thinac
c _.
News 1 Sports i The Arts i Commentate I Focus & Books I Report on Business
Back to the top of the page
We welcome your comments.
Coliyiigh i iv 1998, The Globe arid Mail Cotnriany
All rights r rae,'r d
' = #BNt. Global: Services' -r -. .— ..._._.-_÷ _ ,_
.%1?t 11 sn. r+^� '3°"` i btQ S 4FAst. ',,wtw3A»'uw + nxww s .
. r +xe> r. +u,<xer..w•¢: a+.n :r^r ..n •1 e•e ::
2 oil; i u2,96' i i .(2 P vi
The Y2K Nightmare - Vanity Fair- January 1999
O O '
r
a a _
Subject: The si' dK N ightmare - Vanity Fair - January 1} 9
Date: Thu, 31 Dec 1998 07:39:09 -1000 (HST)
From: United Eco- action Fund <unecouuneco.org=>
To: hian(ipz gte.net
Date: 31 Dec 1998
Vanity Fair January 1999
Will the millennium arrive in darkness and chaos as billions of
lines of computer code containing two -digit year dates shut down
hospitals, banks, police and fire departments, airlines,
utilities, the Pentagon, and the White H These nightmare
'''
.-.J `... ,.� n 1 I L po =Uie, a �1. ., m a p ; `u• so ," he
traces the birth of the - 1 7 21: "b;: , the folly. 'cd and denial
that have muffled two decades of warnings from technology experts,
and the ominous results of Y2K tests that lay bare the dimensions
of a ticking global time bomb.
The Y2K Nightmare
By Robert Sam Anson
The nightmare scenario goes like this
It a instant past midnight, January 2000, and suddenly
noth works Nut 1-- fn's, which have stopped dispensing cash not
credit cards, which are being rejected: not VCRS, which now really
are impossible top ogram. The power in some cities isn't working,
either; and that means no heat, lights, or coffee in the morning,
not to mention no televisions, stereos, or phones, which even in
places with power - aren't working, either. Dank vaults and prison
gat-- ha
v‘. ..
_u n�� p have va '"
lves n sewer lines Th 911
service isn't fun:tionita, but fire trucks are on the prowl
(though the blaze had better be no higher than the second floor;
since their ladders won't lift), People in elevators are trapped,
and those with electronic hotel or office keys can't get anywhere,
either. Hospitals have shut down because their ventilators and
X-ray machines and, - impossible .]y -c
... . -�.. won't work .... , -.. any case, it's ..... _^;pOS Sib).- ....
bill the H.t4.O.
Traffic is a mess, since no streetlights are working. Trains are
running, but their control switches aren't, which is bad news for
supermarkets, utilities, car dealers, and international trade,
which can't m . :hip either. Only the brave. ,r foolhardy are
getting on airplanes -hut with , -o many countries degenerating into
riots and revolution, it's wiser to stay at home anyway. There are
no newspapers to read or movies to go to or welfare checks to
cash. Meantime, retirees are opening letters saying that their
pensions have been canceled because they are minus -23 years old -
tiary banks and =mail businesses have gone bust, and it will be
wee -if eve_ befo the mess that is the br cr�rc,ment --
sorted out.
On the brighter side, no one can punch a time clock; on the
darker; most of the big manufacturing plants have shut down
because their lathes and robots aren't work- ing. Pharmacies
aren't filling preIr- p t' the D.M.V.
The Y'_K Nightmare - Vanity Pair - Ianuary 1999 O O .
u • n a i s and everyone's 5 keeps flashing C VIf E
x renewals, e- .,_ } -,ne' dashboard e.._, ER -__E ENGINE
Now. Mortgage payments sent on time have been marked late, and
everyone's phone bill is messed up because of all those calls that
began in 1999 and ended in 1900. On the Internet where thousands
of Web s it e s are suggesting w r to fi_. A. a nd when o " to
the wi o ^,. .. s., the acronym for what's is TEOTW The
E Of The World As We Know It.
Wiii it happen? "Yes," "No" and "Maybe," say the experts. And
that's the most unnerving thing about the phenomenon 'variously
known ...
The Year Their ,.
vrubier, ,.r "The Mi B"
No onewill know the extent of its conscouencesuntilafter they
occur. The one sure thing is that the wondrous machines that
govern and ease our lives won't know what to do. Some will freeze,
electronically paralyzed; others will become imbecilic, giving
idiot. answers and issuing lunatic commands; still others,
overwhelmed, will simply die -as will the blind faith the world
has placed in them, "The reason we are in this screwup," says Paul
Strassmann, who oversaw the Pentagon's vast computer operations
during the Bush administration, "is that ... Americans fell in
love with computers and put up with ... failures that they would
not have put up with in a crummy toaster or microwave."
The product of this folly is a looming disaster with an imm
deadline that will touch the entire world. __s scale is uni'n
too: 1,2 trillion lines of potentially l y software code
located in virtually every country, plus 30 billion
microprocessors. Many are linked- computer to computer; network to
network, place to place - everywhere from birthing rooms to
,__--.arnri.1mc. And if potential catastrophe _s T o be avoided, every
line and must be checked -a task variously to building
the pyramids, changing all the light bulbs in Las Vegas in an
afternoon, or individually noiishin_g enough marbles to fill the
Grand Canyon.
The global cost of putting everything right { is estimated to be as
much as $3.6 trillion, according to Capers Jones, estimated
of the
1997 book The Year 2 000 Software Problem. This includes lawsuits,
which some expect will total $1 trillion in the United States
alone. But squandered treasuries are lust the beginning of the
misery. Because of Y2K there are predictions of a recession
matching he oil shock of 9,'3 -74 , hundreds of thousands of
bankruptcies, and a disruptions of government services from police
protection to food inspection. The chairman of the New York Stock
Exchange, Richard Grasso, has warned of "p disastrous
consequences"; a senior executive at Barclays, the British bank,
reportedly advised clients to sell their homes, stockpile cash,
and buy gold. And even Utah senator Robert Bennett -the most
_ow ert„ea�.lo 'd;K c
e xpert _-_ C_ e
grss -wa < _...,
_ .ed tto s ay, "I'm net
yet ready to dig ashelter in the backyard. But it might not be a
bad idea to have a little extra food and water."
For some, Y2K offers rewards. Sales of survival gear are at record
levels, Southern Baptists fof -seee "historic evangelism
opportunrrie and the career of singer Pat Boone-who has already
recorded public-service announcements "to bring Y2K to the family
dinner table for dialog= -has been revived. The prospect of
impending doom has provided fodder for Pat Robertson's Christian
Broadcasting Network, which asks the faithful, "How does God want
us to redeem this situation for Him?"
Some experts are more optimistic, But even the cheeriest
2 t 4 loo i,L 9$ ;AM
The Y2K Nightmare - Vanity Fair- January 1999 O O .
assurances are not completely rn ort' Y2K, c i Jeanne.
a....___.n___., c__..pi_te_, mT.,__ing. said .Cann_
Terrile, an analyst at Merrill Lynch - which has spent $375 million
fixing its problems -is like the space shuttle: "It always goes off
smoothly .. , except once it didn't, and the country came a
cranthi -rii
Preparing forte worst, Canada has made plans to call out the
troops; Wisconsin and Iowa, the National Guard. Meanwhile,
airlines are considering imposing "no -fly zones" on areas of the
world not ,:K- ready Computer experts are also getting ready. A
recent survey of executives that 1 0 percent of
thin planned . to stockpile canned goods, 11 percent were preparing
to buy generators and woodstoves, and 13 percent were going to
purchase "alarm Systems, fencing, and firearms." "The problem,"
Intel chairman Andy Grove has warned, "is going to be pretty bad."
Belatedly, that's become apparent to the U.S. s "If we
don't fix the century - date problems, we will have a� situation
scarier than the average disaster movie you might see on Sunday
night_," Z.R.S. commissioner Charles Rossotti said last year. "The
whole financial system of the United States will come to a halt.
it not only could happen; it will happen, if we don't fix it
right." .his is going to, have mpl cations in the world and in
American society we can't even begin to comprehend " added Deputy
c'e 'n ary of Defense John Hamre. "I would be the last person to
suggest we're not going to have some nasty surprises, because I
definitely think we will." Among those surprises could be
weapons -such as Tomahawk missiles or ICBMs -that won't launch when
they're supposed to or will tire when they're not supposed to.
So crave are the concerns for the nation's bower grid -in which a
failure in one region can cascade to others -that Connecticut
senator Christopher Dodd said, "We're no longer at the point of
asking whether or not there will be any power disruptions but now
we are forced to ask how severe the disruptions are going to be."
There are ..- m -_.._ .- a ,r rain nunu.. rar; n s
healthcare industry, a and nuclear cower plants atleato n
one of
which ` d., failed l e. d a Y2F. t est. White House Y czar John
hn
.. h as a _ milr � a.�✓ Wh-V -
Koskinen has said, "We could have, if not the equivalent,
something that is very much like a hurricane on the East Coast, an
earthquake in San Francisco, and flooding on the Mississippi River
happening all at once."
Things will be infinitely worse over seas, where Y2E's impact on
the d of food, seed, and fertiliz could result in between
10 million and 300 million deaths. When one Middle Eastern contact
was told of the millennium bug, according to Sherry Burns, who
heads the . _. _ . a Y2K office, he replied, "When we see it, we'll.
spray for it."
The Middle East, where half the oil companies expect at least one
critical breakdown, is in particularly had shape -as are Japan,
which has the world's largest banks, and China, where much of the
software was pirated, not to mention Indonesia. "Asia," said
Deutsche flank Securities chief economist _,.ward Yardeni, "is
Jr. toast, the year2000, Asia will he burnt toast." But the
bigges jitters are over Russia, which possesses not only 11
Chernobyl -type bower plants, 22,500 nuclear warheads, and the
funds to fix none of them, but also an attack- warning system so
vulnerable to Y2K that the Pentagon has proposed stationing
officers in each other's command centers New Year's Eve 1999.
"[The missiles] are probably just going to sit there and tell
3 I i 1/ ,99 6.49 AM
The Y2K Nightmare - Vanity Fair- Januay 7999 O O .
i e operators 'I'M confused,' John Pike of the Federation of
American Scientists said in a recent interview. "But there is a
small, finite risk that this could lead to accidental nuclear war,
simply he cause people fail to fix their computers."
How all this has - ned is an u it nlikely sto , and i besin nearly a
half - century N with amost unlikely woman. Her name was Grace
Murray Hopper, and in the field of computer science there has
seldom been her like. Feisty, quick tongued, and irreverent ( "Life
was simple before World War II," she liked to say, "after that, we
t „L ,” - .. �- at.l �� ... ;ice �� .. =�.u.
no many distinctions durina her 85-year life. They included
coining the phrase "computer bug" (a moth flew Into . re she was
working on); becoming the first female admiral in the navy; and
inventing the "compiler" -the software element that translates text
into the is and Os a computer can understand. But the
accomplishment for which Grace Hopper is best remembered was
helping to create a computer code actually useful in everyday
life. Its name was common Uusincsr ''
.�riEntEA language-COBOL, for
short.
Able to perform myriad business tasks, COBOL was the Windows of
its day-the ryrocram that ordered he t .nom , of virtually
every busi computer_ `Phe earliest l of theca gargantuan
however. In to - they relied
e
mainframes had a flay'. J...,'fer. order viii :::Jerate. rE'__..
on a dollar hill - size piece of cardboard called a Hollerith card.
Named after the inventor of the first electric tabulating
machine -and used in one form or another since as early as
1?90- Holieri+..n_ pa_neu information by means o_ small rectangular
hoes punched :into CO narrow col'_..__s. "You can put a hole in this
card representino one dollar," IBM chairman Tom Watson would tell
customers. 'A dollar of sales, perhaps, or a dollar you owe
someone. From that point on, you have a permanent record, It can
never be erased, and you never have to enter it again. it can he
added, subtracted, and multiplied. It can be filed, accumulated,
and printed, all automatically."
All of which was true -as was the fact that "IBM cards," as Watson
Preferred to call them, barely had room for a name, birth date,
and address. Initially, this was handled by simply using more
cards - three, for instance, to record a single magazine
subscription. But as time went on and businesses V _ bigger, -
ge
�� ' J
companies found that they needed entire buildings just to store
punch cards. This, they made clear to IBM, would not do. So, in
order to squeeze in as much information as possible, programmers
shortened COBOL instructions whenever they could. That included
dates, which were reduced from eight digits to six by lopping off
the 19" from the year, computer would thus read 113199" and
know k the digits stood December j _ _999_ Wh _ _ alter or 1-
not do was realize that one second after midnight on that date it
would be January 1, 2000.
So, in the manner of an odometer passing 99999 miles, the numbers
would roll back to "00," which a computer would interpret as
1900 thaL., the sudden loss of a hundred years didn't
p reven t if from functioning, period.
Programmers were aware of the problem, but believed improving
technology would fix it decades before 2000. And by the end of the
1950s, technology did get better, with Holleriths giving way to
more compact magnetic tape. The guts of computers transformed,
integrated
ntegca` d
too, shrinking ... vacuum tubes �... ..ra n�.�., ...,�.. to y ..L
circuits. 1964 there was another revolution when, after an
ypiI$ iii i77o.49AM
The Y'_}: Nightmare - Vanity jai;- Ja nuary 195 O O .
}
°'
expenditure of $5 billion (more than it had cost to create the
first atomic bombs, IBM introduced its System /360 -the first
"family" of computers which could use the same disk drives,
pri u n.
O a, peripherals, .'J
ierals, iegaidieua of a -ici'u size r power.
The i s on and rreasnr, Tnm
:rpu ....
_ - u nior, reco rded
his memoirs, "was to hake all other s
r obsolete.... Once
ter
customers shifted to System /360, they'd be able to expand their
installations simply by mixing and matching components from our
sales catalog. That was good for them, and the benefit for IBM was
equally compelling once a customer entered the circle of 360
users, we knew we could keep them there _ icr _. very Lime."
Tn achieving that goal, IBM succeeded spectacularly well,
demolishing the competition and becoming the mainframe standard
setter. Less gloriously, it also retained the two -digit year.
Holding on to old format was rationalized as a cost -cu: ter
particularly in computer memory the time the cost was 761 to
the s of information l
Stoic �_i� equivalent of the i. a�i0% CGiitaiiled 1 i a Danielle
Steel novel. Considering that the same amount of memory now costs
less than a thousandth of that, it was pound- foolish writ
gigantic. But at the time, few realized it. "I'm one of the
culprits who reated hi) problem," the former proprietor of an
economic-consulting firm told congress last year. "4 used to write
those programs back in the Sixties and Seventies, and was so proud
OE th f that 1 , _ a' , s able to squeeze a few elements of spece by
not having to put 19 before the year... It never entered our
minds that those programs would have lasted more than a few
years." Ordinarily expert at spotting tuture difficulties, t
speaker was Federal R Chairman Alan Greenspan.
A handful were more foresighted_ among them was Robert Berner, an
IBM wizard who had invented the "Escape" key, and was one of the
creators of "ASCII," the language that enabled different computer
sy stems `r SOs,
systems to "talk" to one another. During the a5, Bei:ter also
COBOL r ramm
developed a feature ....v a p� ^r CO... p_..g_
...W..e_s re ....,. e ithc � _
two or four aicit year dates. A passionate proponent of the
latter, in 1960 Berner joined with 47 other industry and government
specialists to come up with universally accepted computer
standards. The wrangling, however, stretched out for years -too
many years for the White House, which, in 1967, ordered the
National Bureau of Standards . s , o -ttle doing,
In matter. n so
the bureau was t gather input from various ;s
, s federal agencies, o some
of which were using two-di years, others four. As a practical
matter, the only opinion that counted was that of the Department
of Defense, the largest computer operator on earth. For
bigger- bang -for -the -buck reasons, it was unshakable on the subject
of year datesL no 19s. They wou]xlrt't eaten- to anything else,"
n com ,t -rode specialist • ' i s t _
says Harry White, a D.O.D._ _. -.___ .1_ _ and Boner
ally. "They were more occupied with ... Vietnam."
After years of losing fights, White transferred to the Standards
Bureau. Hardly had he arrived when the bureau succumbed to
Pentagon pressure and announced that two digit years would become
the preferred op f federal agencies, s t a rtin g January 1,
1970. Hoping for presidential intervention, n, White and Hamer
rounded up 65 technical societies and asked Richard Nixon to
declare 1970 "The National Computer Year." When D.O.D. lobbying
kept that appeal from reaching the Oval Office, Berner recruited
the presidential science advisor, Edward E. David, to plead the
case in person. Nixon listened, then asked fcr help fixina his TV
se -t, Frantic, Berner and White beseeched private organizations to
u , i6 iii3/99 6.4: i v]
The Y2K Nightmare -Way Fair- January 1999
0 0 S
t • call for a voluntary `our - digit_ -year option. But once more the
Pentagon's position prevailed. Mindful of government contracts,
big business went along. Berner was reduced to issuing caveats in
obscure ec ,ical - ,urnals. "There are many horror stories about
programs, working tor years, that died on some s ignificant charge
in the date," he wrote in the February 1979 issue of Interface
Age. "Don't drop the first t di V [of the century]. The
_y
program may well fail from ambiguity the year 2000." The
reaction in some quarters, Berner recalls, was laughter. Quietly,
though, the Y2K word was spreading. Two years after Beater's
v , wss pu.. - - -. ._
e-horloyy ..,.__. niatv_5 Joe relke a nd
Jackie McDonald iokinglywrote in a trade taper, "I have a plan to
make a fortune in the year 2000. T will start a company called
'Father Time Software' that does nothing but correct programs and
data files that used only the. last two digits of -the year ... for
keeping their records.... We will charge fantastic fees, and
clients will have no to aj'. choice but In 1993 a Detroit
programmer, William Schoen, tried to make the idea a reality.
After stumbling on the date problem while working in the basement
of a Big Three automaker, he devised a $995 solution on his home
PC., then set up a company to peddle it. The Charmar
Correction -the answer for "the problem you may not know you have,"
as the American weekly Csmpnterworld called it -had exactly two
sales.
Nevertheless, warnings about '12K persisted, including in a book
written by an Illinois couple, Jerome and Marilyn Murray.
Published in mid-1989, Computers in Crisis: How to Avert the
Coming Worldwide. Computer Systems Collapse had its genesis on a
day when Mrs. Murray, an assistant vice president at an insurance
company, was figuring annuities. All went well until she keyed in
an annuity due after 2000, at which point the compute- spat hack
"1900," then reams of gibberish. She reported the incident to her
husband, a former IBM consultant, who went to his old colleagues b
for explanation. The one they provided boiled down to two
This is - pr bi for r which computer
users alone are responsible. There is no IBM solution to the
problem in this room. Predicting "domestic and international
chaos" if someone didn't soon come up with one, the Murrays wrote
in their foreword: "We have placed our confidence, physical and
economic wellbeing, and future hope in the development of a
log; now seven to be fatally flawed through collective human
oversight. What have we 'lone? What will we do ?"
Two years later, in South Africa, a programmer named Chris
Anderson started asking himself the same questions. The answers he
came up with were sufficiently alarming that he took out a
magazine ad-"The imebo mi in Y�. IBM Mainframe System..' Rig Blue
e ,
rc n rted : "IBM and other v have known - __
n __ this for many
years. This problem is fully understood byIBM's software
developers, who anticipate no difficulty in programming around
it."
But with every --Cw computer-62 million of which were in use in the
U.S. by 1991_the ale of the n _. in---Pc . So, too, _ id the
complexity of fixing it For as was disturbingly gly becoming
apparent, "COBOL Cowboys," as rough-and-ready programmers called
themselves, had worked according to whim, sometimes deliberately
hiding dates (as this guaranteed they'd later need to be hired
hack), other times disguising them under the names of girlfriends,
cars, even Star r :gig
was ek characters because this as ht
idiosyncratic and amusing). Thus, "2000 - 1983 17" might read as
6.AN6 ii 7,749 a -49 AM
The Y ^_K':di htmare -Vr, -pity" F "s r- ,anuary 1999 O
p • "Gloria + Chevy = Spook." Not that the code needed to be So
complicated.
In 1997 the Washington State Department of Social and Health
Services discovered that t many of its computer functions were being
governed by one word: "Bob.'
Had the mischief been contained, the impact would have been
negligible. But in the name of "downsizing" and "productivity,"
computers were increasingly running everything. And how they ran
never stopped changing, as business kept demanding better, faster,
cheaper L...____ and that_` . In Li__ rush, 2u _.._ bothered __ get rid
of Grace Hopper's COBOL core. Instead, revisions were piled on top
of it, layer upon layer, until a system containing hundreds of
millions of records could have thousands of levels, constructed by
hundreds of different programmers- -each of whom had his own way of
doing things. "It's as if you were building a bridge," says Dr.
Leon A. : - . of the Society for Information
Management's Year 2000 w group, "and let every riveter pick
their own kind of rivet and drill different boles and use
different rivet
guns."
The result was, achetti Code,' .n, nendi n;. tangle of and ls.
To decipher their. meaning -and_ what it mrght hold for the
millennium -one would have to possess the source code a
frequently misplaced, decades -old document most of whose writers
were retired, deceased, or, as in the case of Alan Greenspan, had
gone on to other chores. "I don't remember having any significant
documentation," the Fed c hairma i told Cvnyicoo. Earlier he had
said, "If I were o hack ~ look look at some of the programs I
wrote 30 years ag -I mean, I would have one terribly difficult
time."
Things were made even harder by the nature of the software beast.
"It cannot make a single mistake, - said Greenspan, seven months
afrar explaining that "you can be extremely scrupulous in going
through every single line of code in all your computer operations,
make all the adjustments that are required ... say, 'We have
solved the 2000 problem,' and then find that when the date
arrives, all of the interconnects that are now built in start to
break down."
As the Reagan era drew to ~ close, few even knew that - problem
rn
nvinted Beer had retired in 1992, assuming that Y2{ would be
ironed out long before it did any damage. If something like
lac -Alan could be squeezed onto a chip, he reasoned, how tough
could it be to add two digits? Not so so confident, Harry White
continued press old co-workers at t he Standards Bu.rcai;.. They
G __
were sympathetic, o ut did ,thing_ "No one wanted to step u p to
the Plate." says White. It wasn't colitically expedient. The
Republicans were saying, 'The less government in your lives, the
better. "' So deep ran the animus toward regulation that in 1988
Congress removed individual federal standards for computer
purchases altogether.
Within a year, odd things began occurring. One of the first to
the Social Security dm str. which stupefied
notice was .__ oci Administration, s,_loa, ir_h was e
s_a� �'
to learn that a system which tracked collection of overpayments
would not accept the date when a repayment schedule went beyond
2000. "We looked at each other and said, 'Whoa?' It didn't take a
lot of brains to figure out that if that piece of software acted
in that way, we probably were going to have a problem with a lot
i Vi ic, iii51996,:; AM
T l "'K Nightmare - Vanity F Ianuaty 19 O 0 ,%,
o of software," S.S.A. computer expert Kathleen Adams recalled to a
reporter. "And we came to the conclusion that we were going to
have to literally look at every piece of software and fix it."
Social Security tad little choice: every month, y s computers sent
ce million payments t _.- l l'°ri people. "Guess .. ` o those people
are?" Adams asked. "Mv mother is one. We ... can't mess up because
we don't want to mess up Mom."
Mom notwithstanding, in 1994, Social Security began sifting
through what it deemed its mission- critical computer code -some 35
•�`7 ` d. =nevi ito p
.million lines. The work consumed three years, and when it was
finished S.S.A. had to turn its attention to millions more lines
at the state level. They were a trifle compared with what awaited
the Department of Defense, where there were hundreds of millions
of code lines running on more than 1.5 million computers, 28,000
automated systems, 10,0430 networks, and thousands of individual
devices -many directed by exotic programming languages for which
there was no readily available fix.
The potential for mayhem was demonstrated in 1993, when curious
engineers turned computers ahead at the North American Aerospace
Defense Command, which alerts the president of approaching ICBMs.
simulated _« -r m
stroke f midnight, 000 - RAD
At the .�,vio-a.ct, c d iyiit January , c".v v, every Ta
warning screen froze It could have been worse, At other o tines,
electronic foul -ups in Russia have prompted preparations for
imminent nuclear attack.
Officially, nothing was done about occurrences like this until
October 199h, when then acting assistant defense secretary Anthony
v -tte we ekend re i n te ragency computer
officials. During a break in the proceedings, Social Securit °y's
Adams stuffed a Y2K paper in his hand and launched into
hair- raising briefing. "I came running into the Pentagon on Monday
and started telling some senior people," Valletta told The Boston
Globe. "I got half of them saying, 'What are you, crazy?' and I
got some people saying, 'That sounds like something we ought to
check into. "' When officials finally aid, they were appalled. At
the , a army, agency that outfits and equips the Year 2000 computer
q._ t �_ ' _ �
entry deactivated 2400 inventoried items. Had the error not been
caught, critical equipment would have gone missing. In still
another instance, a 2000 date could not be processed by the system
that keeps k of the deployment of forces worldwide. "If
a., track pi _hE . ^. S. of U.S. `'' :
we built houses the way we build software," a top ranking D_O.D.
official said later; "the first woodpecker to come along would
destroy civilization."
With their need for years -ahead planning, insurance companies and
mortgage brokers had realized that long before. But in most
r,
boardrnmc t =
there w c cti l 7 n de„ a me view
understndably, _ view
of ` computer ex.per s Dale Way and Mark Raselkorn. 'Why." they wrote
in a journal of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers, "would [anyone] stand up and say, "Give me 540 million
and I'll disrupt our whole information infrastructure, put all of
our current operations at ii k and, if I'm lucky, do something n-
ane else has don_ and a prevent problem. many people think _s not
•
real, and will not in any case happen for years, and otherwise
will contribute nothing to our bottom line'?" Way and Ilaselkorn
could think of only two kinds of managers who might: the insane
and those with guns to their heads.
But in suburban Toronto, Peter de Jager, a bearded, South
African computer consultant of prodigious girth and with a
iR 3.36 AM
n Sli 1��
The Y2K Nig'htwrers - Vanity Fair - January 1999 O .
0 ' a
similarly sized knack for phrasemaking, was about to bring Y2K to
the fore. He'd known about the problem since the 1970s, but he
hadn't `paid it any heed until 1989, when he saw a documentary on
the 1965 East Coast power blackout-an event brought about by _ e
f ailure of a single transmission line. If something so ___nor could
visit such misery on so many, de Jager thought. what would happen
if billions of lines of computer cede suddenly went screwy?
Over the next your years. de Jager soaked up everything he could
about computer dates, power grids, and systems connections "It
ih_ h O __ :+.e!' he s "First, because of what IL
T
could do to mc and family. u. Tho something ciao occurred to mc:
what the hell is tgoing to do to the world ?" In September 1993,
de Jager published his worries in Compute_rworid, "Have you ever
been in a car accident ?" he wrote beneath the headline DOOMSDAY
2000. "Time seems to slow down.... It's too late to avoid
it- You're going to crash. All you can do now _ , watch it
happen.... We are heading toward the year 2000, We are heading
toward a failure of our standard date format.... Unfortunately,
unlike the car crash, time will not slow down for us_ If anything,
we're accelerating toward disaster." De Jager laid out lust
why -and noted the squandered billions chat would be the
consequence. "We and our computers were supposed t make life
easer ;" he wrote, "This was our promise_ What we have delivered
is a catastrophe."
By 1995, "the Paul Revere for the vear2000 computer crisis," as
The New York Times dupped him, was pounding the lecture circuit'.
"It today were December 31, 1999,. de Jager told audiences,
"t economy, wor stop. Tt wouldn't grin to nay
would ._
halt. It ould snap to a halt, You would not have a dial tone....
You would not have air travel. You would not have Federal Expre
would not have the Postal Service. You would not have water.
You would not have power. Because the systems are broken."
before long, was el speeches a year. A book
,Manacling Cu : de
the Year 2000 Computing Crisis) was also
in the works, along with pricey seminars on videotape and a
600,000- visits -per month Web site- www.vear2000.com. Such was de
lager's influence that the American Stock Exchange named a listing
of 12Kremediation companies after him. During its first year in
operation, the value of the "de Jager Year 2000 Index" jumped 100
percent - two and a half tames mare than the Dow. Its namesake, who
was reportedly pulling in more than $1 million a year; wasn't
doing badly, either -a fact de Jager's critics never tired of
pointing out. Some scoffed at the need for doomsaving. In 1997,
David Star; chief information officer for Readers' Digest, called
the clamor ov r b
e Y2K "the i gest fraud pc, petio' -ctd tr c
tt business _ - _ titysince re engin " L=aded Morc.v "We
cope with wars, huge upheavals, natural disasters of all sorts.
And now we're going to be stopped in our tracks by a computer
glitch ?" Even the John Birch Society joined the chorus, suggesting
that Y2H could lead to a government power grab reminiscent of the
Reichstag file.
IBM, however, was taking Y2K quite seriously, and as far back as
October 1995 had announced a series of steps to "assist customers
in timely Year 2000 transitions." That IBM had played a leading
role in creating the need for those transitions -and faced the
prospect of whopping lawsuits wasn't mentioned. But the company
left no doubt that big trouble was coming. "The problem is large;
it's complex," IBM'_ press release quoted de Jager as saying. "1DM
The Y2K Nightmare -Vanity Fair- January 1999 O 3
• � e
° is right ... to address this issue today."
Internet publisher John Westergaard needed no convincing. His
friend i:ew York aeaaror ui,yntuau was - different
stor he still wrete on a typewriter, But _ that had .t kept th
3L
two men from bei from belna close, nor had it prevented Westergaard from
being Moynihan's campaign treasurer. And so, over lunch one day in
early 1996, Moynihan listened intently as Westergaard spun a
bloodcurdling tale oI a phenomenon he'd never heard of. '1 had' a
fascinating lunch in New York," the senator told reporters when he
goL back Lu Was___ , _.
_. "A friend c:
:; a'r'ea a:a___.. _. �V"-�•
for tho computers of tho world." Ho sn kidding, Moynihan said.
"There is a bug i every computer that will cause it to go haywire
January' 1, 2000, and the federal government Metter get its act
together. If they can't pay their bills and issue checks in a
normal fashion it is going to domino to all other things."
When the warning went virtually unnoticed. Moynihan asked the
C. io Tonal Research Service to prepaYe a report on possible Y2K
consequences- What came bark in June 1995 was chilling: hospital
systems falling, airplanes not taking off or landing, records
being scrambled -one cataclysm after another. Moynihan passed the
news to Bill Clinton in a Jul 31, s letter, along 199E lettel with a
recommendation that the president appoint someone who would ensure
that all federal agencies -and the companies that did business with
them -he 72K- compliant by January 1, 1999. "The computer has been a
blessing," Moynihan closed. "If we don't act quickly, however; it
could become the curse of the age."
Moynihan was . . r[-i _ Mi anything he didn't already know;
eight months earlier; Howard Rubin, chairman of the
computer-science department at Hunter College, had briefed the
president in detail. "Clinton understood that technology is more
than the Internet and pulling wires through high schools," says
Rubin. "He really understood how everything was tied together [and
Y2K' s] potential fur broad reaching consequences. He was very
interested and very concerned." Al Gore was slower on the uptake.
"How could this be a problem in a country where we have Intel and
Microsoft ?" he exclaimed when.Rubin finished; Rubin shot back_, "No
way are you going to be able to run for office in 2000 if
government systems are failing around you." Gore had no reply. "He
was educatable,' € sa Y Rubin , "but with effort."
Moynihan, meanwhile, was getting only silence. Finally, three
months after sending his letter, he received a reply from the
Office of Management and Budget {o.M.B.). It thanked' him for'
the. heads -up and pledged to keep an eye on the problem.
Far fr __.. cacc -_ Moynihan i n t ro duc e d 1,411w r nlling fnr the
designation of a czar, the establishment of compliance
deadlines, and a bipartisan national commission to address what
was called "a devastating computer problem which will have extreme
negative economic and national security consequences unless dealt
with."
The legislation went nowhere, even as reports of Y2K incidents
piled up. In Pennsylvania, a computer network that scheduled
patient appointments at three hospitals and 75 Clinics shut down
after someone punched in a visit for January 2000. In Michigan, a
produce store's brand -new cash registers crashed more than 100
times when cust=ter„ tried to pay with credit cards expi in
2000. in Minnesota in 1993, officials instructed l04 -y °- ear -old Mary
1% vi ■J iii i9 aAM
The Y2K N &Umare -Vanity Fair- Ianuan 1999
o r Bandar to report to kindergarten after a computer took her 1888
birth date to mean that she was 4 vears old. During a Y2K test -run
at a Maryland jail, computers decided that inmates who still had
time serve were ready to be released. industry was getting hit
as __
__ well c _ At ___w =.y, a mixing system for a cleaning .rnr rejecter'.
a batch of chemicals when a computer read a 2000 expiration date
as 190n. At a Chrysler plant, a Y2K dry run locked every entryway
and exit and wouldn't let anyone in or out. At a Fortune 500
financial- services company, computers sent out bilis for 96 years'
interest.
Glitches were also surfacing abroad. In Britain, computes at the
Marks 5 Spencer department stores ordered a consignment of corned
beef discarded after deducing that the "02" sell-by date meant
that the meat was 94 years old. In Canada, the computer at a
university admissions office created letters on behalf of foreign
students informing Canad_an Immigration they had graduated 95
years earlier.
There were more ominous incidents: a Y2{( test at a Honolulu
electric company that simulated pulling the plug on some customers
and sending too much electricity to others, which would have
caused = .. o a exploding appliances; a +2K run-through that
simulated_ cutoff of gas-detertir,g systems on a North S ea oil
platform, which would have shut down its operations under normal
conditions. The list stretched on -all too uncomfortably for most
of big business. In 199E its doubts were gone and the fix -it funds
were pouring in.
Th strategy for killing __ - il n -.;,_.. bug ., _ let4v _ _
'f'- ---. �g wa-
e
straichtforward, and there were several methods of going about it.
All, however, involved massive infusions of manpower. To fix
everything in the United States, it was estimated, would require
every single one of the 1.92 million software professionals in the
country to devote nearly five lull months to working on Y2K.
Problem No.1 was that m v
was impossible. was _ble. Prob_em No._ that
at a normal work pace the U.S.. was at least 700,000 bodies short.
For big business, this produced Problem No.3: having to pay
whopping prices for the help that was available. In some
instances, technology managers were commanding salaries of up to
$1 million a year. In others, senior programmers from the United
Kingdom h, favoriterecritan, ground for talent) were demanding
and getting - $7500 per day, plus Concorde flights home every
weekend. When, despite the lavish perks, the programmer shortage
persisted, global .investor George Soros and the prime minister of
Bulgaria offered a solution: hire low - cost techies from the
Balkans.
Lures _ - rogra,^,`.. rs was only the first stet however. Then followed
months of inventorying, analyzing, and repairing, and an equal
number of months testing the results. At each stage, the size of
the problem grew. One U.S. bank thought It had 60,000 2C.'s; on
second look_, it came across 50,000 more. At General Motors, where
there were two billion lines of computer n
ter code 100,000 ou_ '
:n
suppliers -any one of which could r shut down the assembly lines-most
executives believed that there would be no Y2K troubles on the
factory floor. Then a new team came in and. found what were
described as "catastrophic problems" at every plant. 'With each
new discovery, costs sp 'While watching his company spend
tSOO million on Y2K fixes in 1997 and 1998, AT &T chairman and
C. ,O, C, Michael Armstrong said, "They were given an unlimited
1 1 a;()
),1;a; c,„;;_,-vvi
The Y'K N - Vanit Fair- January 2 99? O .
fa budget and they na to exceed ad4et y -. .. _ ma__ ❑ed rJ e. {Ce iL.l
But money alone was no g uarantee. of success. On average, every
cut 10 software repairs produce) a new computer error. The
_i 'e d 9000 deadline was if
_ trouble, only one -__ fivc• _ ^.jr
o
software Projects ever finishes on time. Then there was something
called the "Crouch- Eclilin Effect," which, if valid !about that,
opinions were divided), could cause a fully fixed computer to
randomly swatch dates, wipe out data, make wrong calculations, and
perhaps not start up at all.
That was not tho end of the problems. In e once -cv -300 -v ars
exception within the Gregorian calendar; 1000, unlike 1900, 1900,
and 1700, is a leap year - -a fact programmers had neglected to tell
their electronic charges. Some companies have already learned this
the hard way. ?, New Zealand minerals - processing plant, for
instance, discovered an n aned for extra day in 1990.
Production lines stopped, the liquids Hardened and by the time
everything was straightened out nearly three quarters of a million
dollars in damage had been done. Halfway around the world, a
similar glitch turned away 50,000 people who wanted to play the
Arizona lottery. To add further vexation, the F.B.I., according to
the New York turned another Year 2000 1 Pcs had �,�..� up yet a er ear � threat: the
Mafia, Sniffing ill- gotten gain, organized crime was recruiting
`.2`.'r. technicians to plant "trapdoors" in computers, which at an
opportune moment would fimnel corporate funds into Mob accounts.
Capitol Hill also began to stir. In the House, California
congressman Stephen corn's Subcommittee on Government Management,
Information, and Te began assigning preparedness g r a d e s
for federal agencies. The first report card , released on July 30,
1996, was "not something you'd like to take home to your parents,"
Horn said: "F" for Labor, Energy, REMA, and Transportation (whose
chief was indifferent to the problem}; "U" for veterans. Affairs,
NASA, Justice, Interior, HUD, Health and Human Services,
a Commerce, and the E.PA. (none of which had any action
elan, or any estimate on how much a fix would cost). On the Senate
side, Robert Bennett's 22K subcommittee was having trouble getting
straight answers. "People lie to us or they refuse to talk to us,"
he said. Referring to his attempts to raise awareness abroad, he
later said, "I've met with C.E.O.'s of ((major foreign corporations,
pleading with them to get involved with this. ".n.:: , ,meet with
blank stares.... Nobody cares.
`I2K, meanwhile, was looking more and more like a job for the
Sorcerer's Apprentice. The first new mess was the discovery that
virtually all the 400 million desktop computers in the
world - including the 100 million used by U.S. '
.S. .zsi Cam were
__ntury- bu as __ w ell, Cleansing each would require only a fe
hours. The catch was that some companies had. strung rung together tens
of thousands, and a glitch missed in one could all the
Others.
In 1995, British engineers found that microprocessors-the
dime-size p
"his" contained p s"
e thin f rom - ,eelar
to microwave ovens-were Y2Ksusceptible a well. The good news was
that less than 10 percent of them carried dates, and of those only
a fraction would have problems. The bad news was that there were
at least 30 billion embedded chips around, the globe, and no way
of telling which were at risk without checking all of them. And
that would be tricky, many chips contained _dates for no
, }' fps
reason {tough this made them no _less dangerous) . In other cases,
12 ail; jii;i996,56AM
The Y2K Nis imam -Vanity Fair- )amWry 1999 O . .
,. identical chips functioned differently -one Y2K-secure, its twin
anything but. Testing did not ensure a sound sleep, either; as
some chips would function fine through the millennium, only to
fail years later.
The last y V
rk was the killer: most chip were so ingeniously
tucked away that they were impossible to fix. Instead, the
equipment they ran- whether a $5 toy or a $119,000 medical imaging
device had to be replaced. When the various problems were totaled,
the cost of making the world safe from chips was put at y300 to
CL,.l 1.1 i ^ _..,. ._ ..._�.. tf ' .�1CLe ! ay .._ ...... ._S:� Wa ... War,
according Morrill Lynch.
Not until 1997 did word of this disaster -in- the - making reach the
United States. "Mo body thought of it," says David Hall, senior
computer consultant at ACS Technical Solutions in Chicago.
"[Microprocessors; µ :'t like the stuff with flashin _
you see at IBM, and they don't look like the PC. sitting on your
desk. It's hard to realize if you don't work with them_ all the
time, these things actually run off software." When the message
was finally delivered, during testimony before Horn's sub
committee, Ann Coffou, a senior manager with the Giga Information
Group sketched Armageddon: elevators halting, 911 services
coll pacemakers failing, water pipes bursting, fax machines
stopping, weapon systems switching on. "The overall effect on the
economy worldwide," she said, "could be monumental."
As It to underscore the warning, reports of trouble began
appearing. At a Boston bank, se severe were the Y2.. glitches in
cash-advance terminals that all o f them had to be junked.
Meanwhile, .isa, MasterCard, and American Express waited more than
a year to issue cards that expire in 2000, until they could he
sure their point-of-sale machines would accept them. That, at
least, was only an inconvenience. During a YK test at a
manufacturing plant, a flawed chip switched a pressure monitoring
system to default, which could have blown LID a steampine.
Identifying the source of such mishaps wasn't easy. In a Y2K test
could have r to the shutdown c i } he trouble
could _ ,� _ ,_
the a. a power pan_, the __ e h'
was traced to a single chip in a temperature sensor located in a
chimney. Reflecting on the food that might go undelivered, the
heating oil unpumped, the electricity ungenezated -all because of
nits o silicon smaller stamp. --Or, Leon K i man
� ,.. r.��e.� than a postage " �, ^..�.. �..... apps ^- �...r..i
has said, "This isn't the inconvenience part where your paycheck
comes a few days late. This is the blood - in -the streets part."
But the White House was serene. "We have a high degree of
confidence that the important services and benefits will continue
through and utter the new millennium," said C.M.E. official Sally
__at fig„_ the administration's 129' point ,- __ r _eptemY.er i997_
"It _„ expectation that when we wake un on January 1 in the
year 2000 the millennium bug will have been a non-event." Counters
Maryland congresswoman Connie Morella, who co- chairs a Y2K task
force, "It's the _American concept that, if there's a computer
problem, we don't have to worry.... Bill Gates or someone will
come up with a magic bullet."
Microsoft's C.E.O. and chairman had no such plans. Y2K was a
mainframe problem -and a "pretty simple" one at that -he told the
press after hosting a "summit" of 100 industry C.E.O. 's in May
1997. All anyone needed to do to solve it was to move off of
mainframes and onto PC. sytems (which, happily ily enough, run on
Windows),
i5u416 ,o7 36_51 VV;
The Y2K Nightmare .Vnnii} Fair- 7nnunr 1999 O
r
•
Critics noted that Windows 3.0, 3.1, and 95 all needed fixing. But
Gates wouldn't give ground. There is no problem with programs,"
he insisted, turning the ulame on tt e thai them. "There is
__ ;.;
_ probl itn Pr _ a p ackaged _ oft w _re = c _ s for the
alarm Y2K alai neratinQ that, Cates said was the fault of those
who "love t tell tales of f r. Not that he seemed to mind.
Thanks to the worries about Y2K, he said, the personal computer
industry could expect "a little bit of a windfall."
T Thee_ (—ca is _.. ^'...mod ._.. xperLs. He's nci only slowed the
whole effort down by a year," Y2K consultant William Ulrich
of Gates, "he's also guilty of having the problem an.'i downplaying
it. Sin on ton of sin."
Finally, in lurch 1998, after Jason Matu ow, Microsoft's s27
strategy manager, admitted that the company's having been "slow in
havi. g .
addressing this issue" was "a mistake," Microsoft erected a Web
site listing Y2K- related issues with dozens of products. "It's
surprisingly complex. for something that seems so simple," Gates's
lieutenant later said. "The issue is not in any one component.
It's the mix of components that's so dangerous.`
The s was becoming increasingly clear in Washington_ w here, at
a numbed. of , Q n.- s, pro"Tecc on Y2K moved backifar... The Agency
for International Development, for one, had been given n "A" on
Horn's list report, for announcing plans to replace its. entire
computer system. Now, A.I.D.'s grade had. dropped to "F" because
the computers it bought were not Y2n- compliant. These troubles,
though, paled in cearison to +hose of the Federal Aviation
Administration .(F.A.A.).
The problems began with arithmetic. According to the F.A.A„ it
would meet the Y2K conversion deadline with time to spare;
according to the data on which it based the claim, more 60
percent of its _ 7p w ould not unn_ Year's _ on New Year i Day
u
2003. anpeared to age difficulty _ erminin
�.,0�.. The appeare c h -Y d art g when
employees would retire, since the official appointed to work on
Y2K had recently done just that. Lethargy was also an E.A.A. vice.
by February 1998, its work on Y2K had fallen seven months behind
schedule.
Worse, 34 of the 100 F.A.A. systems on which the flying public's
depended would suffer -- "catastrophic failure" if not __
paired. Pend that would be tricky, because IBM said the computers
were so old, it would not fix them. "What is contingency planning
for the r.A.A.�' asked Yardeni. "Binoculars:"
Whit House computers ha been fix either, a nd a= yet nr one
fully knew their readiness for the year 2000. Frustrated. Horn
!
cornered Clinton at the summer 1997 congressional picnic. "Look,"
he said td - the president, "you've got to give leadership. The
person you most admire is Roosevelt. And his most famous phrase is
'We have nothing to fear but fear itself.' You need to explain
.
that to the American peopl _ fire -bie ..ewer." promised
he would, and Korn sent hi a Y2K = materials. r But that was their fast
contact. "Normal Clinton behavior," says Horn. "They p thi
game of going right to the edge." Having gotten nowhere with
Clinton, l either, Morella turned her attentions to Gore, lobbying
him during a December 1997 White House reception. "I Wan' the
president to say something," she told Gore, and we .,..held have -
lY2Kl _car." She added that he would fit the bill perfectly, "It's
1)1 1 , 1/ f )/7> n. )1 AM
The Y2K idighmnre - Vanity Pair- January 7999 O O .
• hard to find the time," Gore said jokingly. "Why don't you do it ?"
Finally, in February 1998, Clinton signed Executive Order 13073,
which set up the Council on ear 2000 Cc _ _ _n, a high. level
g ro u p t hat was tr, help f the g o ve rnment's mi c ion -rr4 r 1 ca ,
computer systems some 7,336 in all. The man in charge was 0.M.B.
Deputy Director for Management John vin,.
hn KoS e
..y..
Announcing that ne would personally demonstrate his confidence in
the nation's electronic systems by flying from New York to
Washington millennium le... 's Eve, New Year's . ._skinen went _n say,
.r. n,� i iu, , -r' ,a u"..� - -v �r.�.. ... \ i l , l , 1r. .-�-,
"There is no indication at this time that thero will be major
disruptions for the A.merl can people."
Others weren't so sanguine. Within weeks of Koskinen's
appointment, the General Accounting Office ,G.A.O.) issued a
report saying that only 35 percent of the vernment's
"mission - critical" systems -- those that the departments cannot
function without- -had been fixed; at the current pace, it was
highly dubious the rest would be finished by 2000,
The press, for its part, lambasted the administration. "eihen it's
time me talk technology, Vice President Gore never seems, be at
a loss for words " Stephen Barr and Rejiv Chandrasekeran in
The Washington Post "But when it comes to the Year 2000 c'o outer
glitch, arguably the nation's most s esing technological problem,
Gore has been strikingly silent. There have been no public
speeches, no 'town hall' meetings, no photo-ops with programmers."
The O.M -_- was also sounding the alarm, and __ was the nonpartisan
G.A.O. "No one is in change," the G.A.O.'s top computer scientist,
Rona Stillman, told a Y2K conference. "In essence," she said, "our
entire way of life is at risk,"
On July 14, 1930 - two years after receiving Moynihan's
letter-Clinton at lases ~ up. oke up. "Anv "An business that approaches the
New Year armed only with a bottle of champagne and a noisemaker;"
he declared during a daytime address to the National Academy of
Sciences, "is likely to have a very big hangover Mew Year's
morning." What exactly would happen, Clinton didn't claim to know.
On the one hand, he said, "the consequences of the millennium bug,
if not addressed, could simply e a rash of annoyances, like being
unable to use a crerlr card at the supermarket." On the other, "it
could affect electric power, phone service, air travel, major
governmental service." Whichever; he was going to ask Congress to
pass a law or two to do something about it.
Almost as Clinton was speaking, the Department of Defense was
admitting that r.t the 4 _.. c4 r.t. -crib r -.l cycrcanS claimed h a v e
been fixed the Previous November, only a suarter actually bad
been. "Anyone who dared report anything besides (compliances...
was worried," said DO.D.'s Y2K chief, William Curtis. "That's
because we shot the messengers."
Other agencies were s hedging the truth. A G.A.O. audit
that 15 the systems that the Agriculture Department claimed
were - 12K-ready were, in f act, only dreamed -about projects. But the
F.A.A. appeared to have been honest about some things -such as
admitting that it didn't know whether its new computers were
Y2K-compliant-and made the extraordinary claim that it had done 14
months' worth of Y2K renairs in E months' time.
r6Ario 1{ ;;,996,.Si AM
The Y2K Nightmare - Vanity Fair- January 1999 O ,� •
t
r • Tho h put House S 4 Newt Gingrich in mellow
gat_a _rina dismay e ___� p_a..er t w_ s_.g_lch n a me_
mood. "Year 2000 is a total downside risk for Clinton and Gore,"
he said. "If nothing goes wrong, they get no gain whatsoever. If
[government ._• mpiitersl _rash and burn. Mr. information
Superhighway has - real prnhlets and will g et a l o f heat."
As 1998 wound down, every silver lining Y2K seemed t b
accompanied by a darker cloud. The government, by most reckonings,
seemed to he doing better (even if the F.A.A.'s new software was
losing aircraft at O'Hare), and Charles Rossotti's worries had
eased enough that he could now say that key _.R.$. systems would
hd Y2Kcompiiant by January 1399: he admitted nonetheless that
T.P.S. machines had sent taxpayers bills for $30.0 million. Put
fears were growing for the private sector, where preparedness was
woefully laggard for small and medium - sized companies, and even
more so for those overseas, where the situation in some developing
countr_. es was of ch gravity that Joyce Amenta, who was then the
t
United Nations' director of information technology, was warning of
bank panics. trade ruptures, and civil unrest. Koskinen adds, "We
are in a high -wire balancing act. We've got to aet people to take
a serious problem seriously. On the other hand, one of our risks
is. overreaction.... I need to give people the facts as we know
them. 1 won't speculate that the world is coming to an end."
Chris Dodd wouldn't, either. Y
he'd seen and heard enough to
know that there were three places where no one should be come New
Year's Eve: "In an elevator; in an airplane, or in a hospital."
Bennett -whose daughter had decided to fill her garage with food,
on the assumption that, after 2000, o_3.� would be available -was
marginally • _ _ opt . "Of course the power grid is
going to work," he said, during a Y2K Risk Assessment Task Force
public forum. "That's based on the assumption that the telephones
will work, and that's based on the assumption that the power grid
is up. The banking systems are going to work just fine, so long as
all the telephones work and as long as there's no brown -out
problem on power the power ._
And the health-care system _.. going to
work just fine as long as the financial system works. all so
rv.,333ve,..ted , not to know until through t
_..te �_, we're n.,t gcrag kn r; ur�l we go � u,Ih i..
whether it will really work or not."
Whatever happens, the pity is that Grace Hopper will not be around
,.,e.<. it. T'he "Gra ham •«hF.r : f _fte Computer Age," as SnG was
_nown, once said that she hoped to live until the year 2000_ "1
have two reasons," she said, "The .. -c - c '-}la t_ the party on
December 3l. 1999, will he a New Year's Eve party to end all New
Year's Eve parties." And the second? "The second is that I want to
point back to the early days of computers and say to, all the
doubters, 'See? We told you the computer could do all that.'"
, Ir V I 1\, id 5/39 6 AM
•
o 0 • •
Q o A document prepared for the county council
Hawaii Island 15 Jan 1999
Y21(iNSLR
CRITICAL DIMENSIONS FOR ISLAND PREPAREDNESS
UNDERSTAND THE REAL THREAT : The immediate threat is y2k
with a domino effect and the abiding threat is NSLR (No shipping -low
reserves) The fragility of the worldwide supply infrastructure is now
threatened by oil reserves coming from unstable governments, the specter of
plague or other communicable mega -virus strains, nuclear , computer, and
biological terrorism from any number of destabilized governments, the
unseasoned global financial markets that have faltered at the brink recently
and the possible combination of one or more of these. This unprecedented
set of threats is accompanied by the worst weather damage in history and
would not be such a serious problem if we had adequate food reserves, basic
agriculture, renewable energy, non - pumped water sources and a workable
ER - MEDEVAC system. Unfortunately we don't.
HAVE A REAL PLAN: Peace and community self - reliance will have a
chance if there is a general public acceptance that there is a plan and that the
plan goes into effect with a friendly island wide communications system
that orchestrates supply, exchange and law and order.
EMPLOY ALL PUBLIC RESOURCES: There are many public
resources including major military reserves of food and basic support. If
these resources are informed and pre - positioned to help there are major
benefits that can be employed to engage in man -made disasters as explained
in FEMA documents and the Stafford act.
•
. o o
INCREASE RESERVES: The two month oil reserves and non - existent p
food stocks should be increased to cushion the unknown effects of the year
two thousand problem. Hotels that bring an added carrying capacity to the
islands during this critical time should also be required to stock a similar
reserve. The visitor population running loose on the islands constitutes the
major uncontrolled dimension during a period of uncertainty. Communities
can hold it together better because of a history of cooperation.
SUBSIDIZE FARMS: We have an opportunity to kick -start local farmers
who can spearhead community gardens by paying for the land, tilling
support, special seeds and business advice. Ideally these would be
distributed evenly in rural areas so they could be accessed by all without
unnecessary fuel consumption. This would develop real heartland
sustainability and get us out of the vulnerable zone.
DEREGULATE POWER: Provide a way for independent power
producers to come and provide direct support to rural communities where it
costs more to ship power than it should. This will extend our oil reserves
and provide direct support to clean water pumps and emergency rooms.
RELEASE FUNDS FOR COMMUNITY SELF -HELP: Simple self -help
booklets and local access TV programs will show individuals how to
conserve resources at home, cooperate with community resources like soup
kitchens if needed and generally learn to plant and forage during critical
phases. There is reason to believe that many of the more vulnerable times
will be predictable. Simple self - reliance is always a good practice
especially for more understood crisis situations like hurricanes as recently
cited by Harry Kim. Getting people off the grid as soon as possible would
almost completely eliminate this kind of NSLR threat.
This information was distilled by the ARCTURUS Strategic Design
Group. It is a partial summary of meetings in North Kohala, contents
of websites from Maui and Kauai and other Y2K source materials.
o
a • 0 A II p� I I �
ARC�f LIIRLIS I�ISHGN GROLIP
PO BOX 130 HAWI.HI..967 19 808189 <ARCTURUS.ORG>
Daniel K. Inouye
United States Senate
Washington, D.C.
Ref: Military Disaster Assistance and emergency relief.
Dear senator,
The State of Hawaii faces a new and protracted threat to its regional
sustainability. We are a flotilla of islands without sufficient food and fuel
reserves on board to sustain a global shipping freeze. We are 2500 miles from
re- supply and we have less than two weeks of food on- the - shelf. This seems
almost incomprehensible but true.
This was not a visible problem before the likes of Y2K, Ebola, nuclear
terrorism, biological terrorism, world financial fragility, an oil crisis or any
domino combination of the above. When we worried about a natural disaster
like a hurricane there were two comforting qualities. One, the hurricane would
end within a week and two, the islands not so effected would assist the ones
hardest hit.
During a y2k crash when all the systems have Alzheimer's, communication and
shipping will stop, together, The world out there may be on hold". Then,
there will be an anxious period of not knowing . Panic time?
It is during this period that local Leadership must know there is a plan, must
feel the plan at work, must have an assignment, must see the presence of
reserve food, fuel and water, and must hear the gentle radio voice of a
local person directing community services.
In this special case, if our communities can get started on an organized
conscious basis then the panic that could occur will be avoided. Otherwise,
with thousands of unsupported tourists roving about looking for food, we can
trigger our own crisis that will kill people and loose lawlessness that local police
will not be able to control. In fact any announcement of martial law will be
precisely the signal that "every man is for himself'. Marshall Law has been the
only response we have gotten from our local island civil defense offices. They
are still focused on hurricanes. They are not schooled in "man- made" disasters.
We in North Kohala and at least six other districts mostly regional in character
have begun independent y2k planning efforts. We communicate via the web.
The astounding and continuing conclusion is that we are not sustainable. We
are beginning a broad -based examination of on -board water, harvestable food,
renewable fuel, and key services. Crude plans are surfacing.
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During our community discussions we all get quite angry at how the
heartland's have been gutted in favor of outside interests. For an ultimate
rebuild and interim emergency assistance we will simultaneously need a
homestead, a neighborhood and governmental plan. It is critical that people at
home feel involved. We need to plant more, use solar and wind more, learn to
catch water and be more handy with life on the land. But, with deep military
back -up we could bridge to susainabilityf with grace and assurance.
Perhaps with your detailed knowledge of Pacific Forces capabilities, the
amended Stafford act which expands military operations beyond war and your
island network, an umbrella of confidence could be subtly spread during the
coming year.
Like operation desert swarm it could begin as an OPLAN. A military field
exercise that ostensibly is "practicing" the building of forward support bases
could be routinely launched, not to spook the visitor trade but assure local
leaders that food, fuel and water support was close at hand. Then if the crisis
looms you reveal that all necessary back -up food, fuel, water and services are
on hand remain calm, the resources have been distributed, execute your
local plans for distribution.
OPERATION MAKAHIKI II? We have many deep traditions of preparedness
in our island history. Work 8 months and celebrate for 4 months afterward is
just one. If we reestablish vigorous and sustainable roots in our rural areas we
won't have to live in fear of the many international flash - points that could
curtail shipping in the future. I believe this problem will grow steadily as a
threat. The Army War College seems to think so as well.
Fundamentally, senator, this can jump start the islands into a new posture of
sustainability and self - reliance. It is an opportunity in disguise. But, it will
really hurt if we get blindsided. You may recall the Hawaii 20/20 map of the
future solutions 1 designed for our rural districts.
Please come for dinner in North Kohala at my restaurant "Bamboo ". We are
playing for keeps here, come learn about us! Attached are some detailed
documents for your staff.
For the Kohala team!
Jim Channon
Social architect
The following webstte explains the strategic outlook.
(www.army. mil /usawc/ parameters /97autumn /luian.htm) with the
O 3 -X-
4 '
MEETING FOUR
KOHALA Y2K
KOHALA.NET /ABUNDANCE
WORKING GROUP PRIORITIES
QUESTIONS FOR THE COUNTY
1. WATER
What is min. daily requirement for Kohala?
What power is required to run pumps ?
What alternative sources (renewable) are available for water pumps?
What are chlorine standards for use of ditch water?
Are their military resources available? Tankers. .pumps. .filter systems. .generators?
2. FOOD
What is daily requirement for Kohala? 4500 people.
What is on -shelf supply?
What will be the on -shelf supply if there is a rush on the stores?
Who has the extra food for island visitors?
What military rations and stockage in days are available?
What is the non - hybrid seed supply on hand?
Are there portable silo's or storage facilities?
If we ar to feed 4500 people what is the acreage /fertilizer /manpower needed?
3. MEDICAL
What are the critical supplies and medicines needed?
What is our regular use of specialized powered equipment?
What is monthly storage of special medicines needed?
What specialized treatments like dialysis will need to be localized or brought to the
district?
4. PLANNING
What has been done besides contemplate martial law?
Where is a plan ...any plan ...FEMA model?
What police /military security will be available to control for marauders/looters?
What other cooperation can we expect from county resources?
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0
COMMUNITY WIDE
SELF - RELIANCE SURVEY
COMMUNITY COOPERATION
Remember this is a long range
The Hawaiian Island chain is a long way from Learning opportunity and....
supply ports. Surprising as it may seem we are
also very dependent on outside sources for food Rn ounce of preuen tion
and fuel. One estimate is that there is only two
weeks of food available on- the -shelf now for lo-
cal residents. If our oil -based fuel supply is dis- Q. If six months of reserves is the standard
continued then power stops and water cannot .......circle your level of readiness....
be pumped. When we are full of island visitors 070 20% 90% 60% 80% 100%
the demand for everything ...goes up.
Q. I f you could contribute a special skill or
Since the Y2K computer phenomenon, we have tools to the community resource pool...
become very sensitive to what could happen if please identify:
this inbound shipping is discontinued for any
reason. A global financial crisis, an oil crisis,
nuclear terrorism, biological terrorism, or even
Y2K could trigger a sequence of events that might
disrupt supplies. We are presently trying to Q. If you have special needs ( like Medicine
think this possibility through. It will help if you for diabetes what are these needs ? :
are inclined to complete and mail in the card
contained in the back of this booklet to SELF -
RELIANCE. 0 . Based on your assets select one of the
following Community readiness teams you
This community, for the most part, has indicated would best fit into...
that it would handle such a crisis as a commu-
nity. But this doesn't mean that each family FUEL / TRANSPORT _ FISHING _ HUNTING _
shouldn't be prepared with basic reserves. It also FRAMING FORAGING ROURCULTURE _
means we would share or best skills and special
tools with the community at large should the WATER SUPPLY FOREST MEDICAL —
need occur. Y2K planning began informally in POWER SUPPLY COMMUNICATIONS
the fall of 1998. (see web site <kohala.net /abun- FEEDING _ OUTREACH _ ENTERTAINMENT
dance> Be alert for other guidelines to be made RESOURCE EXCHANGE YOUTH _ OTHER
available in the near future.
optional
Think for yourselves what your real back -up
might need to be. For planning purposes a six Q. Please indicate your name/ address
month reserve has been suggested. Here are (also actual physical location ) Hawi ?
some possible items to have on hand:
A victory garden with proteins and carbohydrates ...canned
and dried foods ..sixty taro plants..10 banana trees... a seed
bank . water purification devices...special medication...basic tel.
t ools. .candles...matches...first aid kit...gas burner w/ tank/
grill. cooking oil /salt...gasoline /motor oil...fishing Thank you uery much, SELF- RELIRNCE
tackle...hunting gear...you get the picture.
We will obviously get smarter about this as we
study the situation further. We are designing
teams for bigger items. Stay tuned.
SELF RELIANCE PO BOX 1156 Kapaau 96755
IS
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