HomeMy WebLinkAboutCOM 0070.014 1998-2000 0 0
INVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF THE YEAR 2000 PROBLEM
U.S.SENATE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON THE YEAR 2000 TECHNOLOGYIFt®RbEM-..,
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...the Committee concluded that the utilities were proceeding in the right direction �fych ° j3atW ' c - "
remedial efforts was too slow and there was so much remaining to be done that there was
significant cause for concern. Only two of the eight firms reported completion of assessment,
making assertions of Y2K compliance by December 1999 highly suspect. Committee concern was
heightened because the most difficult tasks — renovation and testing— were yet to come.
The utilities' lack of information re- girding Y2K compliance of their major suppliers, vendors, and
sery -ice providers created additional concerns about the utilities assertions of readiness. The survey
results raise significant levels of concern given that the fimis surveyed were among the largest
utilities and were dedicating many resources to Y2K (collectively over $400 million). Smaller firms
with fewer resources are presumably further behind in their Y2K remediation efforts. (p.23)
While the NERC surveys clearly show progress in August, Sep- tember, and October, the question
is whether there is sufficient time to complete Y2K remediation efforts. The data presented in the
NERC report do not seem to support the optimistic tone contained in the report's executive
summary. Of particular concern is that, with only alittle over a year to go, 34% of the fimrs are
operating without a written plan.
In addition, the assessment phase isonly 75% complete Remediation and testing is only 36%
complete. Given that Y2K experts contend that between 40 and 70% of the total effort will be
expended in testing alone, there may not be suffi -cient time to complete this.
The highly interconnected nature of the grids raises concern about cas- cading failures. This in turn
rensers obvious the need for contingency planning, (p.25) particularly plans for addressing
capacity shortages and overages which only 13% of thefinms surveyed have in place.
Nuclear facilities are lagging behind other electric facilities in their Y2K assessment and
remediation efforts.
Overall Y2K remediation progress has been slow due to the industry's late start, the complexity of
the power grids, and the magnitude of the problems. As a result, power companies must (p.26)
step up their efforts, and develop workable contingency plans in the event their best efforts fall
short.
There are no comprehensive studies concerning the number of entities that wouldhave to fail to put
the entire grid at risk, but some experts suggest that it may be a very small per - centage if in key
locations.
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Nuclear plants are at various stages of Y2K remediation. Some have only recently begun to assess
the systems within their plants.
OIL & GAS UTILITIES (p.27)
Gas and oil utilities face a variety of Y2K problems in their administrative systems, as well as the
microprocessors or computer chips embedded in the production, transportation and distribution
systems used in this industry. Survey results published by the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission (FERC) in September1998 show that this industry, like many others, started its Y2K
efforts late.
According to the survey. most of the critical systems in this industry are still in the inventory and
assessment phase, leaving little time for the more difficult phases of Y2K remediation and testing.
As a result, the industry is not likely to complete repairs of all of its system in time, which in turn
means that possible disruptions in the production, transportation, and distribution of gas and oil are
possible. (p.28)
Thousands of embedded systems in millions of miles of pipelines all must be checked and, if
necessary, re- placed. Vulnerable systems include distributed control systems, pro - grammable logic
controllers, digital recorders, control stations, record- ers,meters, meter reading and
calibration software, and SCADA.
Any date- dependentapplication, system or component may experience problems that result in
complete system or station shut -down (p28)
a gas utility will typically have between 50 and 100 systems with embedded processing
located in such areas as storage fields, gascontrol and management operations, metering and
facilities, and SCADA systems. Experience suggests that the process of identi - fying, replacing or
upgrading, and testing takes 12 to 18 months to complete. (p 29)
AGA, a trade association of almost 300 natural gas transmission, distribution, gathering
and marketing companies, and 181 local natural gas utilities that deliver gas to 54 million homes
and businesses, has also been actively involved in Y2K. AGA members account for more than 90
percent of natural gas delivered in the United States
Assessment.... included both electric and gas and oil utility companies. Concerns resulting from
the survey expressed in the electric utility section of this report also apply to the gas and oil
utilities. Progress is slow progress, assertions that they will complete Y2K remediation efforts in
time are overly optimistic. the industry lacks knowledge about suppliers' Y2K status, and
contingency plan -ning is deficient.