The URL can be used to link to this page

Home My WebLink AboutCOM 0743.001 2016-2018County of Hawai `i Council District 9 - North and South Kohala Phone: (808) 961-8564 (808) 887-2069 Email: tim.richardsghawaiicountyjgov HERBERT M. "TIM" RICHARDS, III HAWAII COUNTY COUNCIL District 9 25 Aupuni Street, Ste. 1402, Hilo, Hawai `i 96720 DATE: February 16, 2018co , TO: Valerie T. Poindexter, Chairwoman cr. and Members of the Hawaii County Council =y FROM: Tim Richards, Council Member Council District 9 - North and South Kohala SUBJECT: Presentation entitled "Hawai`i Island Tourism Economic Projection" Aloha! As noted in my January 19; 2018 communication, the above-named presentation has been requested. The presentation has since been approved to be heard before Council Committee on Finance on February 20, 2018. Please note that we have been just been advised by Mr. Ross Birch, Executive Director of the Island of Hawaii Visitors Bureau that he will be using a PowerPoint to provide his presentation. An electronic copy is hereby attached via jump drive for uploading and necessary processing. We apologize for any inconvenience and thank you for your understanding: Mahalo! HTR:dbk Attachment: Presentation material via Lexar jump drive Comm. No. 7 3� Ref. To: iC L. Ref. Date Z - 20 -1 Hawaii County is an Equal Opportunity Provider and Employer ISLAND! County of Hawaii Council Presentation February 20, 2018 Ross Birch Executive Director Island of Hawaii Visitors Bureau 2017 Visitor Statistics Total Arrivals 1,762,914 13.7% Total Expenditures $2.4016 14.7% Total Visitor Days 12,955,612 11.2% Average Daily Spend $185.30 3.2% /Person/Trip Spend $1,361.90 0.8% Average Length of Stay 7.35 days -2.3% Direct Air Seats Kona 984,420 15.5% Direct Air Seats Hilo 48,180 7.0% Total Air Seats 1,032,600 15.0 III 1,433,282 1,43 1,321,27 1,290,859.1,3 1,215,256 1,514,973■ 1,549 1,762,9 m x W Total Spending 2007 - 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 III 48,180 45,045 44,540 46,056 58,557 48,588 984,420 810,479 852,562 594,954 ■ 556,314 ■ 593,864 M668,661M 586,914■ 630,776■ 614,714 M686,553 from Dams ft_ worth (DFW) AMERICAN - daily from Denver (OEM) ► UNIT ED - dally gram Los Angeles (LAX) UN I'TED - 2 daily ■ RA'WAIIAN - dully beginning Mar. 12, 2016 ■ AMERICAN - 2 daily 1 --DELTA - daily fmm QaklwW (OAK) ► ALA SKA - daily foam Phoewx (PHX) M ► AMER I CAN - daily Ll rom Sart �ncisco (SFO) UNITED - 3 daily VIRGIN AMERICA - dally from San Diego (SAI!) ■ ALASKA - 4x/` (Sun Tuo-Thu-Sat) from San Jose (S.10 ► _ lASKA - 3x/weak (Mort-Wad�"i) INTERNATIONAL FLIOHTS from Haneda (HND) I-UtWAHAN - 3xj`week Kao toB7%D (Tea% Tho, Sat) HN.D to Kai (WeNd, f)*l, sun) from Narita (NRT) ■ IAL -daily from Seattle (SEA) ► A LA � KA - 2x on Sun -Man -Wed -Fri -Sat, I x on Tue-Th u ► DELT: - flatly SEASONAL FLI€iHTS from Anchorage (AHG) ■ ALASKA farm Bellingham (BLI) ■ ALASKA tram Oakland (OAK) ■ li_%.WAHAN from Vancouver (YVR) ■ AIR CANADA ROUGE from ftwouver (YVR) ► W ESl JET MITER -ISLAND FLI more than 40 dally HILO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT I ITO . UNITED [LAX] - dalb, - srhrdn6 .abject to c ire. 12-W. 1 a Island of Hawaii Kohala Coast Occupancy / Average Rate / RevPAR Occupancy Average Daily Rate RevPAR 2017 2016 Var 2017 2016 Var 2017 2016 Var 74.40% 68.70% 5.70% $249.26 $241.65 3.10% $185.35 $165.98 11.70'0 73.30% 70.70% 2.60% $348.88 $330.46 5.60% $255.62 $233.51 9.50% Occupancy by Island ■ 2012 2013 ■ 2014 ■ 2015 ■ 2016 ■ 2017 85% 83% 77% 73% 62% 111111 111111 1 Nq 0`ahu Maui 74% 76% Island of Hawaii Kauai Visitor plant inventory Figure 6: Ilawai'i Island - Inventory by Unit Tvve 12,400 10,666 11,485 11,349 11,2$4 10,4{34 80,000 73 716 La r $. 70,000 60,000 0 8400 50,000 Ag 40,000 4,400 a 30,000 t 20,000 2,400 \ �, = 0 10,m0 2014 2015 2416 2417 2414 2015 2016 HAWAI'IISLAND 14,666 11,085 11,349 11,284 77,138 79,092 84,3% TOTAL Hawaii Island 10,666 11,086 11,349 11,284 ■ Kaua'i ■ APYH4tel 45 36 36 36 353 252 252 . B&B 358 289 269 262 21,254 ■ Condo Hotel 791 620 613 499 ■ O'ahw 35,864 ■ Hostels 24 24 24 24 ■ Hotel 6,347 6,564 6,614 6,512 Vacation Rental Unit 1,327 1,766 1,943 2,037 ■ Other 122 123 122 113 ■Timeshare 1,652 1,663 1,728 1,841 Fieure is State of Hawaii - Inveutory lav Island funits) 77,138 79,x92 84,336 80,000 73 716 70,000 60,000 50,000 Ag 40,000 a 30,000 20,000 a = 10,m0 a 2414 2015 2016 2017 STATE TOTAL 73,716 77,138 79,092 84,3% Hawaii Island 10,666 11,086 11,349 11,284 ■ Kaua'i 8,492 8,382 8,444 8,821 ■ Lana'i 353 252 252 229 Maui 18,210 20,972 21,466 21,254 ■ Molokai 131 189 182 244 ■ O'ahw 35,864 36,058 37,444 38,548 VPI Advertised Units Table 14: Individually Advertised Units by Island Island Number of Individually Advertised Units 2017 2016 Change from 2016 Hawaii Island 8,647 7,431 16.4% Kauai 6,253 5,164 21.1% Lanai 26 15 62.5% Maui 13,418 10,789 24.4% Molokai 315 367 -14.2% Oahu 9,441 8,79$ 7.3% State of Hawaii 38,100 32,555 17.0% Table 15: Estimated Number of Bedrooms by Island Island Total Estimated Number of Bedrooms 2017 2016 Change from 2016 Hawaii Island 16,956 11.990 41.4% Kauai 12,031 7,883 52.6% Lanai 61 37 64.9% Maul 20,599 13,267 55.3`"/0 Molokai 421 387 8.8% Oahu 16,441 12,798 28.5`"/0 State of Hawaii 66,509 46,362 43.5% Advertised Unit by Type Table 16; Individually Advertised Units by Type Island VR House VR Condo HE Private Room Shared Ream Other Total Hawaii Island 3,900 3,625 68 798 42 183 8,616 Kauai 1,874 4,114 4 166 9 82 6,249 Lanai 17 7 - 2 - - 26 Maui 2,088 10,850 24 288 22 115 13,387 Molokai 65 239 - 4 - 7 315 4`ahu 3,589 4,907 23 739 24 135 9,417 State of Hawaii 11,533 23,742 119 1,997 97 522 38,010 % of total VR House VR Condo BBB Private Room Shared room Other Total Hawaii Island 33.8% 15.3% 57.14 40.0% 43.3% 351% 22.7% Kauai 16.2% 17.3% 3.4% 8.3% 9.3% 15.7% 16.4% Lanai 0-1% 0.0% 0.0% 0-1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Maui 18-1% 45.79' 202% 14.4% 22.7% 22.0% 35.2% Molokai 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 02% 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% 4 ahu 31-1% 20.7% 19.3% 37.0% 24.7% 25.9% 24.8% State of Hawaii 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Accommodation Preference ACCOMMODATIONS Plan to stay in Hotel Hotel only Plan to stay in Condo Condo only Plan to stay in Timeshare Timeshare only Cruise Ship Friends/Relatives Bed & Breakfast Rental House Hostel DECEMBER 2017P 305,511 253,460 103,404 82,270 55,366 42,722 9,688 85,963 7,833 68,134 4,381 o� 2016 CHANGE 290,458 5.18% 242,134 4.68% 103,976 -0.55% 82,582 -0.38% 50,390 9.87% 38,270 11.63% 9,362 3.48% 84,509 1.72% 6,657 17.67% 59,252 14.99% 4,521 -3.09% YEAR-TO-DATE 2017P 3,426,184 2,861,245 1,103,209 864,606 670,309 517,712 109,616 722,095 77,728 649,753 46,960 2016 3,258,527 2,742,043 1,108,225 876,142 650,132 506,232 100,478 697,641 71,697 586,710 43,991 % CHANGE 5.15% 4.35% -0.45% -1.32% 3.10% 2.27% 9.09% 3.51% 8.41% 10.75% 6.75% 1990 16,698 1,127,373 121,572 1991 17,535 1,111,035 127,266 1992 19,244 1,139,978 131,630 1993 18,974 1,117,656 135,085 1994 18,902 1,079,535 137,713 1995 18,547 1,081,047 140,492 1996 19,285 1,163,700 141,935 1997 21,656 1,205,081 144,445 1998 23,993 1,340,767 145,833 1999 22,736 1,307,720 146,970 2000 21,831 1,267,966 149,244 2001 - 21,064 1,181,618 151,690 2002 21,811 1,243,313 154,576 2003 21,934 1,207,164 158,442 2004 23,376 1,281,156 162,852 2005 27,768 1,521,538 168,237 2006 28,336 1,614,408 173,536 2007 27,891 1,622,359 177,733 2008 24,842 1,321,274 181,506 2009 23,204 1,215,256 183,629 2010 24,773 1,281,233 185,339 2011 26,550 1,318,310 186,933 2012 28,559 1,433,282 188,765 2013 ®� 29,255 1,435,245 191,147 2014 30,172 1,454,684 193,885 2015 31,408 1,514,973 196,156 2016F 31,932 1,549,943 198,449 2017P 35,495 1,762,914 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Island of Hawaii Visitor Average Daily Census vs Resident Population Visitor Average Daily Census t Resident Population rn rn rn rn rn rn rn rn rn rn o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0� N Island of Hawaii Average Daily Census vs Resident Population Volume Percent Volume Change Change Change Average Daily Visitor Census 16,698 27,891 31,932 +15,234 +91.2% +4,041 Total Visitor Arrivals 1,127,373 1,622,359 1,549,943 +422,570 +37.5% I -72,416 Resident Population 121,572 177,733 198,449 +76,877 +63.2% +20,716 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Island of Hawaii Visitor Average Daily Census vs Resident Population Visitor Average Daily Census t Resident Population rn rn rn rn rn rn rn rn rn rn o 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0� N Island of Hawaii Average Daily Census vs Resident Population 2018 Visitor Forecast Arrivals 1,974,464 12% Expenditures $6 $2.71 13% Visitor Days 14,251,173 10% PPPD Spend $194.57 5% PPPT Spend $1,402.76 3% LOS 7.40 1 Direct Seats Kona 1,331,727 35% Direct Seats Hilo 60,603 26% Total Air Seats 1,392,330 35% Forecasted Air Seats KONA HILO 2018 2017 % CHANGE 60603 48180 25.8 60603 48180 25.8 60603 48180 25.8 2018 2017 % CHANGE TOTAL 1331727 982187 35.6 DOMESTIC 1175218 880175 33.5 Anchorage 6837 7155 -4.4 Bellingham 3339 3440 -2.9 Denver 61178 26533 130.6 Los Angeles 403320 303961 32.7 Oakland 69157 56963 21.4 Phoenix 63544 63288 0.4 Portland 40484 25917 56.2 San Diego 33708 26871 25.4 San Francisco 255635 135785 88.3 San Jose 35365 26624 32.8 Seattle 168595 176259 -4.3 US EAST 34056 27379 24.4 Dallas 34056 27379 24.4 INTERNATIONAL 156509 102012 53.4 JAPAN 116003 66018 75.7 Tokyo HND 43368 44526 -2.6 Tokyo NRT 72635 21492 238 CANADA 40506 35994 12.5 Vancouver 40506 35994 12.5 HILO 2018 2017 % CHANGE 60603 48180 25.8 60603 48180 25.8 60603 48180 25.8 Increased direct air access to Neighbor Islands Nonstop Scheduled Seats — U.S. Mainland to Hawaii 0- Honolulu Neighbor Islands 7,536,304 7,181,506 7,008,400 7,206,275 6,485,958 6,560,627 6,512,814 6,067,159 _IR 36% 40% 41% 36% 38% 0 41% 36% 40/ 11 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Source: HTUSA analysis of Diio Mi data as of February 2018 Price of oil to stay low in 2018 and beyond $109 $99 Price of a Barrel of Oil $63 $60 $58 $61 $63 $52 $54 = $44 m 1 0 0 0 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Cruise Line Update Cruise Passengers by Port 2016 2017 2018 I Honolulu 2 31x 043 249e940 2 55 004 IHIIO i_98a 192 2 2 le 9,85 228 454 1Kailua-KGnai3_9a-988 158,230 152 899 ILahaina 94.8851 100e328 112,654 lKahulul 113 314 132e798 132j590 I Na A iwi I i 191x672 195e498 212jO92 I Mo loka i 468 576 504 IKawaih;ae 432 432 252 liCruise Passenger Days 96%950 1r§O5Sie687 1jD93.,694 Share of Visitor Arrivals by Island 2017 US MMA ■ Other MMAs 81.8% 77.3% 66.8% 63.1% 49.0% a 0`ahu Kauai Maui Island of Hawaii State Source: HTUSA analysis of HTA 2017P data as of February 2018 AN �r. -ate < qor ie 34; RUM& ,