HomeMy WebLinkAboutWildland Fire Danger Elevated in Hawaii with Drought in ForecastOn December 18, 2018 the Honolulu Star -Advertiser published an article entitled "Wildland Fire Danger
Elevated in Hawaii with Drought in Forecast" (see Attachment 1). It described a study by Clay
Trauernicht of the University of Hawaii focused on the Big Island predicting a 375 percent increase in
wildfire risk over the next few decades.
Last year's fire in Waikoloa burned 18,000 acres, barely missing Waikoloa Village because of favorable
winds. A total of 34,000 acres was burned in Hawaii last year (.6 percent of the state), with the
Waikoloa fire 53 percent of that total. Ironically, last year's devastating fires in California also burned .6
percent of that state.
When I participated in a DLNR bird survey on Mauna Kea last October 1 saw firsthand what few people
have seen or even know about. The grasses on much of Mauna Kea are 3 to 5 feet tall and so thick that
my dog and 1 could not walk through much of it (see Attachment 2). The wildfire fuel load on the
mountain is enormous.
The California fires started in the uninhabited hills; by the time they got to the towns, driven by strong
winds, they were impossible to stop. A wildfire starting on Mauna Kea could grow so large by the time it
gets to inhabited areas that it could also be impossible to stop. The fuel load on Mauna Kea is a disaster
waiting to happen.
The eradication of sheep on Mauna Kea by the state is clearly the major cause of this overload of
grasses. Required by various court rulings from the 1970's to the 1990's to protect the mamane trees
deemed essential to the survival of the endangered palila bird, the unintended consequence of the
eradication of grazers is the creation of a huge fire hazard to our community. In spite of the state's
efforts , the palila population has declined 76 percent since 1998 according to a study published this
year by the US Geological Survey and UH Hilo (see Attachment 3). The study goes on to suggest that the
current palila population of one thousand birds could be halved in ten years and they could become
extinct in 20 years in spite of decades of effort to protect the species.
Millions of dollars have been spent fencing Mauna Kea, trapping predators, planting mamane trees and
eradicating the sheep (including by helicopter hunting). In spite of this the palila population continues
to decline. It clearly doesn't make sense to continue this effort when it is not working and creates a
significant danger to our lives and welfare.
A more focused effort to provide palila habitat in intensely managed areas while allowing a controlled
population of sheep to manage vegetation on the rest of Mauna Kea may be a workable solution. The
Kaohe and Puu Mali Native Forest Restoration Areas could serve this purpose given better management
to control the pasture grass currently inundating those areas.
The state administration will need to go to court to overturn the order to eradicate the sheep because it
is causing a significant fire danger to our community, is not saving the palila, and is a waste of our tax
dollars.
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Wildland fire danger elevated
in Hawaii with drought in
forecast
BY
Posted December 18, 2018
December 18, 2018
Updated December 17. 2019 11:$4pm
The National Interagency Fire Center is predicting that Hawaii will be especially
vulnerable to wildland fire this winter as drought appears to be setting in under
developing El Nino weather conditions.
In addition, a new study from a University of Hawaii-Manoa researcher indicates
that the islands will be at increasing risk of wildfire due to climate change.
The study, which focused on Hawaii island, found the annual risk of wildfire
increasing as much as 375 percent for parts of the island over the next several
decades.
As for current conditions across the islands, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor data
show abnormally dry conditions reaching out to more than 41 percent of the
state, mostly leeward locations and including all of Lanai and Kahoolawe.
On the Big island, officials with Hawaii Volcanoes National Park announced
Monday the closure of Mauna Loa Road at the gate near the Kipukapuaulu
parking area due to "Very High Fire Danger."
"The strong winds and dry weather over the past week has led to a rapid
escalation of fire danger on Mauna Loa, and fire danger indexes have reached
critical thresholds at the Mauna Loa weather station," the park's fire
management officer, Greg Funderburk, said in a release.
The increasing dryness of the islands comes after two months of drought -free
weather followed by the second- wettest dry season in the past 30 years,
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according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
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What that means for Hawaii is that "fuel loading' — or the ample growth of
grasses, bushes and trees — has boosted the chance of fire activity across the
state to "above average," the National Interangency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho,
said.
Additionally, sea surface temperatures around the islands are warmer than
usual, and air temperatures are expected to be slightly above average through
March, according to the center's seasonal forecast.
Rainfall was above normal in October but dropped off sharply in November.
"Fuel loading has been above average since last spring, and fire activity was
above average during the drier portions of the summer. Therefore, as dry
weather continues, significant fire potential will increase to above normal in
December and remain there through March and likely beyond," the forecast
said.
While Hawaii is the only region of the country labeled with above -normal
wildland fire potential throughout the winter months, the coastal region of
California, from San Francisco to the Mexican border, is tagged similarly through
December only.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center last week raised the
chances of El Nino occurring this winter to 90 percent.
For Hawaii, El Nino often translates into summer moisture followed by winter
drought.
Drought conditions will be increasingly prevalent in the coming decades, said
Clay Trauernicht, UH-Manoa wildland fire specialist and author of a study that
examined how climate change will affect wildfires in Hawaii and tropical areas
around the world.
The paper, published in Science of the Total Environment, not only discusses the
effects of climate change on fire, but demonstrates how tracking rainfall
patterns year to year can help better forecast near-term wildfire risk, including
the danger that excess rainfall in advance of drought can pose to Hawaii's
vulnerable grasslands.
As for the current fire danger, Trauernicht said environmental conditions are
quite similar right now to the period right before August, when a string of
storms built up the fuel load and the drying islands were struck by a rash of
wildland fires that burned nearly 30,000 acres.
"It's looking real sketchy going into January and February," Trauernicht said.
Changing weather pattems and fire -prone, non- native grasses that have
invaded a quarter of the state in recent decades have put Hawaii's forests and
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natural areas at greater risk of fire, experts say.
Both the frequency and size of the wildland fires have increased dramatically
over the years, stretching wildland firefighting budgets to their limits and
sometimes past.
Elizabeth Pickett, executive director of the Hawaii Wildfire Management
Organization, said most people don't realize the scale of Hawaii's wildfire
problem. Each year about 0.5 percent of Hawaii's total land area burns, which is
equal to or greater than the proportion burned of any other U.S. state, she said.
Pickett said 98 percent of wildfires are started by humans, most of them
accidentally. People have to accept that we live in a fire -prone state and be extra
careful to prevent fires, she said.
One common way to start a wildfire is from a spark or hot components of a
motor vehicle. It's the primary reason why Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park
closed Mauna Loa Road.
"By reducing the number of vehicles in high-risk areas, the park can mitigate the
potential for a catastrophic event," the park said.
Pickett said there are a number of simple things folks can do: Park cars on
pavement and never on dry grass. Keep yards maintained and free of debris. Be
careful with equipment that could spark. Practice family emergency plans,
More tips can be found at HawaiiWildfire.org/lookout.
"Prevention is the most important thing we can all do," Pickett said. "Firefighting
is really just a last defense."
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12/18/2018, 9 26 AM
ATTACHMENT 2
Kaohe Restoration Area — 3-4 feet tall — thick and impassable
FB5 — 4-5 feet tall
Parker Cabin — 4-5 feet tall
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2005
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2015
Figure 5. State -space model estimates of palila abundance from 1998 through 2018. Points are
estimates from DISTANCE models, the line shows the median estimate from the Bayesian posterior
distribution of abundance, and the shaded area shows the 95% credible interval of abundance
posteriors.
CONCLUSIONS
The 2018 palila population was estimated at 778-1,420 birds (point estimate of 1,051). There was very
strong evidence that the palita population declined after 1998, with the greatest decline occurring after
2003. The average rate of decline during 1998-2018 was 168 birds per year, resulting in a 76% decline in
the population over the 20 -year period.
Trends assessment shows very strong evidence that the pallia population is in decline. The most
optimistic interpretation shows only an 8% chance of it being stable or increasing. Despite the 2017
survey having almost twice the survey effort in the core area (825 vs. 419 survey visits) the width of the
bootstrap uncertainty interval for the two years was almost the same (636 vs 642).
MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS
The palila population has been in decline since 1998. The 2018 abundance estimate is the lowest
published since regular surveys began in 1998, although Johnson et al. (2006) attempted to correlate
historical survey methods with modern techniques, and suggests it may have been lower during the
mid -1980's. A naive projection of the decline since 2009 would predict the population will half the
current abundance in 10 years and become extinct in another 20.
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In the 2017 mountain -wide survey, no palila were detected along the southeast and eastern slopes of
Mauna Kea, where they have been detected historically. There were two detections on the north slope
of Mauna Kea where wild birds were translocated (1997-1998, 2004-2006) and captive -reared birds
were released (2003-2005, 2009; Banko and Farmer 2014). This area is adjacent to and upslope of the
Pu'u Mali mitigation area where former pasture land has been taken out of grazing and reforestation of
native trees has begun. There were also pallia detected below the core area on the southwest slope
(lower stations on transects 124 and 125), another area where former pasture lands are subject to a re-
forestation project. Despite these hopeful signs that reforestation has begun to rehabilitate former
pasture land into palila habitat, palila range has been relatively constant across the annual surveys and is
only about 5% of its historical extent (Figure 1 inset; Banko et al. 2013).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Funding for annual paliia surveys since 1998 was provided by Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Army
Garrison Hawai'i, Hawaii Division of Forestry and Wildlife, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, American Bird
Conservancy, and the U.S. Geological Survey Wildlife Program. Funding for analyses of the data since
2012 was provided by the Hawaii Division of Forestry and Wildlife. We are grateful to the many agency
staff and volunteers who helped collect survey data and to C. Farmer and S. Hess for reviews of an early
draft. Editorial assistance was provided by 1. Rowe.
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