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HomeMy WebLinkAboutScenario Planning - Base Scenario Technical Report - Placeways (2015) County of Hawaiʻi General Plan Comprehensive Review: Base Scenario Technical Report 1 PROJECT DOCUMENT County of Hawaiʻi General Plan Comprehensive Review Base Scenario Technical Report Date: November 2, 2015 Lead Author: Ian Varley Introduction In a CommunityViz scenario planning analysis, the base scenario “sets the stage” and becomes the scenario against which all future scenarios will be measured. In everyday terms, a scenario is both a map and a set of tabular data. Technically, it is a CommunityViz Scenario 360 analysis containing an analysis geodatabase and additional reference data in the form of tables and spatial datasets. The purpose of the base scenario is to characterize the current conditions in the County of Hawaiʻi (CoH). It draws on the best available information to represent key attributes such as population, dwelling units, land use, and the locations of nonresidential activity. It typically does not represent one specific moment in time but rather it is a reflection of the present day using data published in the recent past. An effort was made to obtain the most recent data possible; most are less than five years old. Below is a short list of primary data sources and their publication dates. See the final section of this report for a complete list of data used in the analysis: • Hawaiʻi Real Property Tax Office (RPT), June, 2015 • US Census American Community Survey (ACS), 2013 • CoH Transportation Road Centerlines, April 2011 • CoH Parcels, April 2014 In this task, the necessary data was gathered, reviewed, pre-processed, and then loaded and further processed to create a Scenario 360 analysis containing the single base scenario. Residential Dwelling Units and Non-Residential Square Footage Two of the most important questions that the base scenario attempts to answer are: Where are people living (dwelling units)? and Where are businesses located (non-residential square feet)? To answer these questions, we are relying primarily on RPT data. Received from the RPT Office in June, 2015, this dataset is one of the most up-to-date data sources available. While the RPT database represents a reliable and recent source of information at a very fine scale, these data are primarily collected for purposes of taxation and therefore are not a comprehensive census of dwelling units or non-residential space. As noted in this project’s Capacity Technical Report, the RPT data do not address illegal dwelling units, group quarter populations, informal businesses such as home offices, farm stands or certain agricultural businesses. The RPT data join to the parcel data via the tax map key (TMK) system of unique identifying numbers. Because the RPT data sometimes have multiple records per parcel (e.g. condominiums) these data had to be summarized by parcel TMK number before being joined to the parcel data. This process ensured that each parcel has the correct number of dwelling units and nonresidential square feet. County of Hawaiʻi General Plan Comprehensive Review: Base Scenario Technical Report 2 To create future scenarios, we will rely on forecast data provided in the Trends and Forecast Analysis developed by SMS Hawaiʻi. Much of the trends and forecast analysis draws not from the RPT data but rather from different data sources, including the US Census American Community Survey (ACS). Because of these differing data sources, differences will likely arise between the base scenario and the SMS 2015 forecasts. For example, the number of dwelling units in the base scenario may differ from the number of dwelling units reported in the SMS 2015 forecast. In the table below the number of dwelling units and non-residential square footage are reported by Forecast Analysis Zone (FAZ). Name Dwelling Units Non-residential Space Hilo 15,851 12,949,274 Honokaʻa- Paʻauilo 2,413 475,779 HPP-Orchidland 6,654 120,247 Kaʻū 3,473 303,389 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Resorts 6,000 5,469,716 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 1,650 1,662,139 Lower Puna 4,835 412,579 North Hilo-Hāmākua Coast 2,834 376,681 North Kohala 2,516 544,897 North Kona 17,170 11,647,546 South Kona Villages 3,510 884,231 Upper Puna 4,884 203,331 Waimea 3,310 1,378,579 Total 75,100 36,428,388 Land Use Current land use was identified using RPT data, primarily using the RPT “Land Class” classification system and residential and non-residential structures. As an RPT product, the land use is by-parcel and does not address land use at a finer scale. This land use classification does not include space dedicated to roads and other rights-of-way that are generally not included in the CoH parcel maps. This explains the discrepancy of 18,864 acres in total land area (the current size of the island is approximately 2,577,920 acres). RPT’s Land Class uses nine classes, and to create the base scenario three classes were added to create a more comprehensive land use palette. County of Hawaiʻi General Plan Comprehensive Review: Base Scenario Technical Report 3 Land Use Acreage Conservation 65,654 Rural 860,144 Agriculture 46,995 Rural Residential 12,736 Residential 27,504 Residential Multifamily 3,066 Commercial 1,641 Hotel Resort 645 Industrial 906 Government 1,492,582 Vacant 46,606 Unknown 577 Total 2,559,056 The land use categories are defined as the following: • Agriculture. These are parcels with >50% active agriculture regardless of RPT use class. This uses the University of Hawaiʻi 2012 CropLayer map which represents a broad variety of agricultural uses (e.g., orchards) but does not include pasturelands. May contain residential and/or non-residential uses. • Commercial. This class comes from the RPT land class field of the same name. Commercial use may be loosely defined here and include diverse uses such as offices, retail, food services, churches and private educational facilities among many other uses. • Conservation. This class comes from the RPT land class field of the same name. May be owned by the government, but in these cases their land class attributions were maintained. • Government. The government class was created by querying owner names for federal, state or county owners where the RPT land class was either commercial, industrial or residential with the exception of parcels owned by the Department of Hawaiʻi Home Lands and Hawaiʻi Housing Authority where their RPT land class value was retained. • Residential. This class is the merger of the RPT classes Homeowner, Affordable Rental and Residential. This class primarily reflects single family houses although many community and non-profit uses may be present in this category (e.g., hospitals, churches, etc.). Where applicable, some properties in these categories were alternately classified as Residential Multifamily. • Residential Multifamily. The Apartment RPT land class field was renamed Residential Multifamily. Some Residential properties were also reclassified as Residential Multifamily where the number of units made this apparent. • Rural. These are parcels larger than three acres without residential or non-residential buildings and that lack active agriculture (according to the UH crops layer). May contain structures that were included in the RPT data. • Rural residential. Parcels less than three acres with one or more structure that are zoned for agriculture by the State or County but lack active agriculture (according to the UH crops layer). County of Hawaiʻi General Plan Comprehensive Review: Base Scenario Technical Report 4 • Vacant. The RPT did not appear to maintain a vacant land use. Vacant in this sense is defined as any property smaller than 3 acres without any existing dwelling units or non-residential square footage. • Unknown. Some properties did not have a land class designation. Where possible these properties were assigned to other land uses when the owner name, location and context made the land use apparent. Many but not all of these unclassified parcels were public roads and are discussed below. Properties where the land use remained unclear retained the land use designation of Unknown. Roads & Parcels The CoH parcel data included roads as parcel features in the dataset. While managing roads and other right of ways as parcels is useful for ownership and taxation purposes, in terms of spatial planning these features are better represented by a dedicated line feature set (i.e., a roads layer) that has been mapped and attributed for this purpose. In addition it is very uncommon that public roads convert into new land uses, being a remarkably persistent use on the landscape. In light of this, 1,277 road features were removed from the base scenario parcel dataset where this usage was clear. There are many cases, however, of road parcels being classified as residential or agricultural uses and in these cases they are difficult to systematically remove from the analysis. There was an effort to remove many of these features using spatial statistics—the peculiar geometry of roads makes them possible to identify using area and perimeter ratios. While these efforts succeeded in removing an additional 287 roads from the analysis, some may remain. While these remainders may not be a problem in the base scenario, they could cause issues later in the process by becoming areas where new residential or nonresidential uses occur in future scenarios. List of data used in the Base Scenario analysis Data Name CommunityViz Analysis Name Source Date Source Agriculture crops CropLayer_2012 2012 University of Hawaiʻi Agricultural lands of importance AgLandofImportance 1977 CoH Major airports in CoH Airports Unknown CoH Recent building permits (2012-2015) BuildingPermits_2012_2015_v2 2015 CoH, Department of Public Works Public bus routes BusRoutes Unknown CoH 2010 Census block groups CensusBlockGroup2010 2010 US Census 2010 Census blocks CensusBlocks2010 2010 US Census Census designated Places CensusDesignatedPlaces 2013 US Census 2010 Census tracts CensusTracts2010 2010 CoH CoH coastline Coastline Unknown CoH Community development plan boundaries CommunityDevelopmentPlans Unknown CoH USFWS critical habitat boundaries CriticalHabitat Unknown USFWS District boundaries DevelopmentPlanDistricts Unknown CoH County of Hawaiʻi General Plan Comprehensive Review: Base Scenario Technical Report 5 HELCO electric utility poles ElectricUtilityPoles 2015 HELCO CoH emergency shelters EmergencyShelters Unknown CoH Business enterprise zones EnterpriseZone CoH Fire stations FireStations Unknown CoH Forecast analysis zone, from 2010 census tracts ForecastAnalysisZone 2015 SMS Hospitals Hospitals Unknown CoH Land cover map of CoH, with emphasis on vegetation communities LandCoverGAPHawaii 2003 USGS Land Use Pattern Allocation Guide (LUPAG) LUPAG 2012 CoH Parcel boundaries Parcels 2014 CoH Parcels with full RPT attribute dataset attached Parcels_RPT 2014-15 CoH Police stations PoliceStations Unknown CoH Public park areas PublicParks Unknown CoH Planned unit developments PUD 2014 CoH Road centerlines Roads 2011 CoH Private Schools SchoolsPrivate 2011 Hawaiʻi Association of Independent Schools Public Schools SchoolsPublic 2012 State Department of Education Special Management Area StateCoastalZoneManagement 2013 CoH State land use conservation subzones StateLandUseConservationSubZones 2015 Department of Land and Natural Resources State land use districts StateLandUseDistricts 2014 State Land Use Commission Major subdivisions SubdivisionsFinal Unknown CoH Major towns as points Towns Unknown CoH Volcano hazard zones VolcanoHazardZones 1991 USGS Waste water sanitary sewer pipeline WastewaterServicePipeline 2015 CoH Potable water pipeline WaterServicePipeline 2015 CoH Zoning Zoning 2015 CoH