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Key Findings from the General Plan Comprehensive Review Trends and Forecasts Report October 2022
Context
Requirements of the General Plan
The County of Hawai‘i Planning Director initiated a comprehensive review of the General Plan in February
2015. The purpose of the General Plan is to set forth the County Council’s policy for long-range
comprehensive physical development of the County. As required by HRS §226-58 and Hawai‘i County
Charter §3-15, the Plan must be formulated on the basis of sound rationale, data, and analyses and must
include, among other things, objectives, policies, and implementation actions for the desirable density of
population, land use, infrastructure (water, waste, transportation, public buildings), utilities, affordable
housing, and economic development.
Purpose of the Trends and Forecasts Report
The General Plan Comprehensive review, therefore, requires an understanding of demographic,
economic, and real estate trends and forecasts that can be used to anticipate and plan for impacts on land
use, infrastructure, and services. The Trends and Forecasts Report is intended to meet that need by
providing both trends and forecasts for a set of variables relevant to the County of Hawai‘i’s General Plan
review. The Report was prepared by Honolulu-based SMS Research & Marketing Services, Inc.
Apart from the report, SMS provided data both at the County-wide level and by the following Forecast
Analysis Zones (FAZs), which are groupings of census tracts based on the geographic location of population
centers in Hawai‘i County:
• Hilo (Hilo and Wainaku)
• North Hilo-Hāmākua Coast Villages
(Paukaʻa to Laupāhoehoe)
• Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo
• North Kohala
• Waimea
• Waikoloa Area (Kawaihae-Puakō-
Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts)
• North Kona
• South Kona
• Ka‘ū
• Upper Puna (Volcano to Mountain
View)
• Keaʻau-Kurtistown
• Hawaiian Paradise Park-Orchidland
• Lower Puna (Pahoa and Lower Puna
subdivisions)
Below, these FAZ groupings are used to refer to geographic sub-areas of the County.
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Historic data are generally provided from 1990, and forecasts are provided to 2045, which is the year
through which forecasts are provided by the State Department of Business, Economic Development, and
Tourism (DBEDT).
In addition to informing the Trends and Forecasts Report, these data are being used for the development
of planning scenarios reflecting baseline conditions, build-out, growth capacity, growth trends, and
alternatives to the trend.
Purpose of these Key Findings
Importantly, forecasts typically assume “business as usual” – that is, they generally assume that historic
trends will continue into the future. The planner’s challenge is to understand the implications of those
trends and the trade-offs associated with adapting to or influencing them.
The Trends and Forecasts Report provides definitions of each metric, data sources, discussions of trends
and forecasts, explanations of forecast methods, and short discussions of demographic, economic, and
real estate dynamics. However, it is beyond the scope of that report to connect those dynamics to
planning. Therefore, the purpose of these Key Findings is to identify “take-aways” from the report that
inform the analysis required for the General Plan Comprehensive Review.
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Summary of Key Findings
Hawai‘i County is rural. Only 40% of Hawai‘i County’s population is within its three urban areas, and in
both urban and rural areas, population density is low.
The County is expected to grow by 35% by the year 2045. On average from 2017-2021, visitors make up
about 9% of the population, and during peak periods, 90% of the growth is from immigration. Almost ¼
of our residents from 2025 and beyond will be 65 years or older.
Rates of job growth are expected to match population growth, but due to the economy’s reliance on
lower-paying service sector jobs, 16% of our estimated population will continue to live below the poverty
line. Moreover, over 30% of our households are shelter burdened, and many are struggling to make ends
meet, often living in overcrowded conditions. Much of the affordable housing is not located in or near
job centers, so commutes are getting longer.
Visitor arrivals continue to increase and are forecasted to increase to about 2.6 million in 2045. Visitor
accommodation units have also increased and while most hotel units are clustered primarily in North Kona
and Waikoloa, a large supply of short-term vacation rental units has developed in Lower Puna. Steady
growth of the visitor unit is expected to continue to match the demand of visitor arrivals, though the
makeup of that growth (hotel vs. vacation rental) is unknown.
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Demographic Key Findings
Population Centers are both Urban and Rural
For the 2020 Census, an urban area comprises a densely settled core of census blocks that meet minimum
housing unit density and/or population density requirements. This includes adjacent territory containing
non-residential urban land uses. To qualify as an urban area, the territory identified according to criteria
must encompass at least 2,000 housing units or a population of at least 5,000. It is important to note that
most of our town centers do not meet the criteria to be designated as urban areas.
Urban Areas Population Housing % of Population Population Density (Pop/Sq Mile)
Hilo 41,410 16,878 20% 1,767
Kailua Kona 33,024 15,746 16% 1,548
Waikoloa Village 6,824 3,222 3% 1,150
Population Density is Low
By the Census definition, the majority (approximately 60%) of the County’s population lives in rural areas,
no change is expected through 2045. In contrast, nationwide, 20% of the population lives in rural areas.
In both urban and rural areas, the County of Hawai‘i has a relatively low population density. It has an
average of 1,488 people living in every square mile of urban areas and an average of 18 persons per square
mile in rural areas. In contrast, urban Honolulu had over 5,556 persons per square mile in 2020.
Roughly 35% Growth by 2045
In 2018, there were 202,263 residents living in the County of Hawai‘i. Over the next 25 years, the
population growth rate is expected to decline from an average of 2.3% per annum to about 0.9% per
annum. In 2045, the County resident population is forecast to be approximately 273,232 – a 35% increase
since 2018.
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Forecast
Analysis
Zones (FAZ)
Total Population
Estimate Projection
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo 42,425 44,070 45,714 47,409 47,910 52,553 53,899 55,186 56,392 57,584 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages 6,681 6,968 7,254 6,538 5,861 6,787 6,537 6,283 6,024 5,768 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo 6,108 6,311 6,513 7,441 6,056 7,270 7,353 7,429 7,495 7,560 Waimea 7,116 8,328 9,540 11,118 11,023 12,545 13,644 14,722 15,770 16,806 North Kohala 6,038 6,180 6,322 6,490 5,906 6,733 6,712 6,685 6,650 6,616 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts 6,015 7,051 8,087 7,713 8,937 9,629 10,296 10,948 11,580 12,204
North Kona 28,543 33,209 37,875 41,213 47,252 50,744 55,464 60,095 64,604 69,059 South Kona Villages 8,589 9,293 9,997 11,268 11,421 12,649 13,427 14,186 14,920 15,646 Kaʻū 5,827 7,139 8,451 7,942 9,773 10,393 11,294 12,177 13,036 13,885 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 3,545 4,258 4,970 5,028 5,524 6,096 6,584 7,063 7,527 7,986 Upper Puna 7,772 9,833 11,893 10,499 12,612 13,681 14,748 15,793 16,808 17,810 HPP-Orchidland 11,421 14,412 17,403 18,597 17,999 21,116 22,911 24,671 26,382 28,073 Lower Puna 8,597 9,829 11,060 10,226 11,076 12,200 12,733 13,249 13,745 14,234
County of Hawaiʻi 148,677 166,878 185,079 191,482 201,350 222,396 235,601 248,486 260,935 273,232
The de facto population is the sum of the resident population and the average daily visitor census. The
average daily visitor census was around 19,441 in 2018 and is expected to rise to approximately 50,519
by 2045, bringing the de facto population from about 213,880 to about 311,869 – a 46% increase.
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Forecast Analysis
Zones (FAZ) De Facto Population
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo 41,108 50,054 54,767 49,730 59,979 63,641 67,240 70,692 74,207 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages 6,523 7,943 7,553 6,084 7,337 7,785 8,226 8,648 9,078 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo 5,857 7,131 8,596 6,286 7,582 8,044 8,499 8,936 9,380 Waimea 8,579 10,446 12,844 11,442 13,800 14,642 15,470 16,265 17,073 North Kohala 5,685 6,922 7,497 6,130 7,394 7,845 8,289 8,714 9,148 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts 7,272 8,855 8,910 9,277 11,188 11,871 12,543 13,187 13,842 North Kona 34,058 41,471 47,609 49,047 59,155 62,767 66,317 69,722 73,188 South Kona Villages 8,990 10,946 13,017 11,855 14,298 15,171 16,029 16,852 17,690 Kaʻū 7,599 9,253 9,175 10,144 12,235 12,982 13,716 14,420 15,137 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 4,469 5,442 5,808 5,734 6,916 7,338 7,753 8,151 8,556 Upper Puna 10,695 13,022 12,128 13,091 15,789 16,753 17,701 18,609 19,535 HPP-Orchidland 15,649 19,055 21,483 18,683 22,533 23,909 25,261 26,558 27,878 Lower Puna 9,946 12,110 11,813 11,497 13,866 14,713 15,545 16,343 17,156
County of Hawaiʻi 166,429 202,650 221,200 209,000 252,073 267,463 282,588 297,097 311,869
Immigration Outpaces Resident Population Growth
During the last two decades, there has been an average of 2,338 births and 1,458 deaths per year in the
County, resulting in a net increase of almost 880 people annually. Also contributing to population growth
are the approximately 8,521 individuals, on average, who choose to move to Hawai‘i County each year.
In other words, about 90% of the growth on average is through immigration. However, it is important to
note that according to UHERO, in 2018, 67,293 Hawaiʻi residents moved to the mainland, or equivalent to
more than 4.5% of the state’s total population; they were partially replaced by 54,074 mainlanders who
moved to Hawaiʻi for a net out-migration from Hawaiʻi of 13,219. More information on this is needed at
a county level to understand Hawaiʻi County’s out-migration data and related effects.
We have an Aging Population
The County population over age 65 is expected to grow by 44% by the year 2045. In 2020, the largest
cohort of the population was aged 60-69. As this subset of the population continues to age, it will present
a variety of opportunities and challenges with regard to housing, economic development, and public
services.
Growth and Development Key Findings
Housing is a Burden for more than 40% of Households
The housing guidelines from the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development suggest that
households should devote no more than 30% of their income to pay monthly housing expenses;
otherwise, a household is considered “shelter burdened” and may have difficulty affording necessities
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such as food, clothing, transportation, and medical care. Further households spending more than 50% of
their income are considered severely shelter burdened.
In Hawai‘i County, the percentage of households that are burdened has remained constant and
considerably above the national average. In 2010, 42% of owner households with a mortgage and 45% of
all renter households were paying more than 30% of their income for housing. By 2020, this had
decreased slightly to 39% and 43%, respectively. Further, a majority of those could be considered severely
shelter burdened.
Nationally, on average, 30% of households paid more than 30% of their income on housing in 2020. It is
also important to note that the State of Hawaiʻi continuously ranked in the top 3 highest shares of shelter
burdened, nationally.
Forecast Analysis Zones
(FAZ) Households
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo 15,141 17,623 16,166 16,826 16,458 16,704 16,914 17,096 17,257 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages 2,384 2,646 2,280 2,185 2,137 2,169 2,196 2,220 2,241 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo 2,083 2,158 1,990 2,033 1,988 2,018 2,044 2,066 2,085 Waimea 2,241 3,217 3,222 3,615 3,536 3,589 3,634 3,673 3,708 North Kohala 1,751 1,862 1,915 2,269 2,219 2,253 2,281 2,305 2,327 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts 2,407 2,983 2,909 3,298 3,226 3,274 3,315 3,351 3,382 North Kona 10,492 14,374 13,946 16,234 15,878 16,116 16,318 16,494 16,650 South Kona Villages 3,113 3,531 3,659 3,838 3,754 3,810 3,858 3,900 3,936 Kaʻū 2,209 2,624 2,829 3,438 3,363 3,413 3,456 3,493 3,526 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 1,261 1,520 1,672 1,802 1,763 1,789 1,811 1,831 1,848 Upper Puna 2,974 3,618 4,106 5,016 4,906 4,980 5,042 5,096 5,144 HPP-Orchidland 3,784 4,594 6,309 6,627 6,482 6,579 6,661 6,733 6,797 Lower Puna 3,115 3,632 4,045 4,566 4,466 4,533 4,590 4,639 4,683
County of Hawaiʻi 52,955 64,382 65,048 71,747 70,176 71,227 72,120 72,897 73,585
Housing Remains Unaffordable
SMS considered housing affordable if its price (asking rent or sales price) is affordable to households if
those units require not more than 30% of the household’s income. Approximately 43% of the housing
units were deemed unaffordable in 2020.
Households Remain Overcrowded
A household is considered overcrowded when the ratio of household members to rooms in the housing
unit exceeds 1.0. A household is classified as extremely overcrowded when that ratio exceeds 1.50.
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Crowding is considered to be a negative indicator of the health of a local housing market, a sign that the
market is unable to supply the number and types of housing units needed.
Hawai‘i has one of the highest overcrowding rates in the country at 7.7%. However, the level of
overcrowding varies across the island with Kaʻū, Waimea, South Kona, and Upper Puna experiencing
overcrowding rates in the double digits. However, on average, Hawai‘i County’s overcrowding rate is still
the lowest among all of Hawai‘i’s counties.
Affordable Housing can be Found Island Wide
The availability of affordable housing varies by region. Relative to the countywide average, the rural
communities – particularly Lower Puna and Waimea – have the largest percentages of housing that is
affordable. In contrast, the North Hilo-Hāmākua Coast Villages and North Kohala have the lowest
percentages of affordable housing. At the same time, most of the County’s total stock of affordable
housing is in Puna (24.2%), Hilo (21.7%), and North Kona (23.3%).
Forecast Analysis Zones
(FAZ) Affordable Housing Units
Estimate Projection
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo 9,989 10,570 11,114 12,160 13,200 14,122 15,044 15,188 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages 1,686 1,669 1,682 1,841 1,998 2,138 2,277 2,299 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo 1,446 1,373 1,414 1,548 1,680 1,797 1,915 1,933 Waimea 2,057 2,111 2,312 2,529 2,746 2,937 3,129 3,159 North Kohala 1,471 1,451 1,544 1,689 1,834 1,962 2,090 2,110 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts 3,349 3,525 3,594 3,933 4,269 4,567 4,865 4,912 North Kona 10,615 11,252 11,955 13,080 14,198 15,190 16,182 16,337 South Kona Villages 2,474 2,493 2,761 3,021 3,279 3,509 3,738 3,774 Kaʻū 2,393 2,435 2,512 2,748 2,983 3,192 3,400 3,433 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 1,043 1,034 1,186 1,298 1,409 1,507 1,605 1,621 Upper Puna 3,341 3,128 3,576 3,913 4,248 4,544 4,841 4,887 HPP-Orchidland 3,941 3,964 4,395 4,809 5,220 5,584 5,949 6,006 Lower Puna 3,071 3,095 3,225 3,528 3,830 4,097 4,365 4,407
County of Hawaiʻi 46,875 48,101 51,271 56,096 60,892 65,147 69,403 70,066
Forecasted Growth Rates Vary by Community
The number of housing units in the County of Hawai‘i in 2020 was estimated to be 90,478. Among those,
approximately 82% were single-family dwellings, and the remainder were multi-family units. 69% of
housing units were owner-occupied.
Growth rates have varied considerably by region, and that trend is expected to continue. Relative to the
countywide estimate of 14% growth in housing units from 2020 to 2045, North Hilo-Hāmākua Villages
(-1.6%) are expected to decrease and Hilo (20%) is expected to grow more slowly, relative to the others.
Others are expected to grow in order of growth rates are: Hawaiian Paradise Park-Orchidland (56%)
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Waimea (52%), Puna – Keaʻau-Kurtistown (44.5%), Ka‘ū (42%), Upper Puna (41%), and Lower Puna
(28.5%). These differences in growth rates are forecasted to result in shifts in the relative population
centers.
Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZ) Housing Units
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo 16,640 17,544 18,602 19,211 20,471 21,104 21,714 22,307 22,877 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages 2,566 2,961 2,938 2,908 3,099 3,195 3,287 3,377 3,463 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo 2,327 2,540 2,417 2,445 2,605 2,686 2,764 2,839 2,912 Waimea 2,634 3,613 3,715 3,996 4,258 4,390 4,517 4,640 4,759 North Kohala 1,922 2,583 2,554 2,669 2,844 2,932 3,017 3,099 3,178 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts 3,160 5,881 6,204 6,213 6,620 6,825 7,022 7,214 7,399 North Kona 13,960 18,642 19,804 20,664 22,019 22,700 23,356 23,994 24,607 South Kona Villages 3,514 4,345 4,388 4,773 5,086 5,243 5,395 5,542 5,684 Kaʻū 2,883 4,202 4,285 4,342 4,627 4,770 4,908 5,042 5,171 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 1,438 1,831 1,820 2,050 2,184 2,252 2,317 2,380 2,441 Upper Puna 3,599 5,867 5,506 6,182 6,587 6,791 6,987 7,178 7,362 HPP-Orchidland 4,316 6,922 6,976 7,597 8,095 8,346 8,587 8,821 9,047 Lower Puna 3,714 5,393 5,447 5,574 5,940 6,123 6,300 6,472 6,638
County of Hawaiʻi 62,674 82,324 84,656 88,624 94,436 97,357 100,170 102,907 105,536
Visitor Unit Growth is Steady, but Types are Shifting
The vast majority of visitor units are in the Waikoloa Area and North Kona. With the upward trend in
visitor arrivals expected to increase through 2045, increasing demand for visitor units is likely. With this
growth comes the challenge of planning for their impact on the local economy, especially with regard to
accommodations.
Historically, hotel rooms accounted for the majority of the visitor accommodation units in the County of
Hawaiʻi (59%), with visitor rental units (VRUs) and timeshare units a distant second and third (16% and
15% of the total visitor units, respectively). When the annual Visitor Plant Inventory (VPI) report began
issuing a supplemental analysis of visitor units in 2016, a more comprehensive picture of individual
vacation rental units began to emerge that indicated that VRUs outnumbered hotel rooms.
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Economic Key Findings
Poverty Persists
Household income rises and falls along with economic cycles. The median household income trended up
in 2020 to $65,401.
The previous downward trend fell to a low of 13.1% in 2007. Since that time, the percentage of poverty
increased to a record high in 2015 of 19.5% for individuals and has declined again to 14% in 2020. The
official poverty rate nationwide was 11.4%, and statewide it was nearly 9.3%. It is important to remember
that the cost of living in Hawaiʻi continues to be among the highest in the nation, compounding impacts
on those who are already struggling to meet basic needs.
Self-Sufficiency is Out of Reach for Many
The poverty rate is a national measure and is hardly a living wage, especially in Hawai‘i. The median
household income in 2020 was $65,401. The State Department of Business, Economic Development &
Tourism publishes an annual Self-Sufficiency Income Standard. In 2020, Hawai‘i County had the lowest
self-sufficiency income requirements ($74,030 for a family of four with a preschooler and one school-age
child), but that income is well above the poverty line. A family of four needed to earn a combined hourly
wage of $35.05 (or $17.53 each on average) to be economically self-sufficient. That was 76.2% above the
state minimum wage level and 145.7% above the federal poverty threshold for Hawai‘i.
Forecast Analysis Zones (FAZ)
Median Household Income Estimate Projection
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo $52,931 $51,030 $63,386 $68,172 $71,536 $76,458 $81,670 $86,883 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages $54,840 $48,401 $58,082 $62,106 $65,550 $70,060 $74,837 $79,614 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo $60,095 $54,691 $58,753 $61,127 $63,216 $65,982 $68,889 $71,805 Waimea $77,813 $58,475 $95,909 $102,553 $108,241 $115,689 $123,576 $131,464 North Kohala $56,574 $63,879 $82,483 $88,197 $93,089 $99,494 $106,277 $113,061 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts $76,930 $72,669 $80,143 $85,695 $180,896 $193,342 $206,524 $219,706 North Kona $63,745 $62,573 $79,358 $84,856 $89,562 $95,724 $102,250 $108,777 South Kona Villages $55,637 $55,323 $65,516 $71,954 $164,093 $192,695 $227,721 $270,467 Kaʻū $41,352 $34,104 $39,751 $85,010 $89,724 $95,898 $102,436 $108,974 Keaʻau-Kurtistown $50,208 $41,773 $69,022 $73,804 $77,897 $83,257 $88,933 $94,609 Upper Puna $41,657 $40,402 $29,385 $31,421 $99,491 $106,337 $113,586 $120,837 HPP-Orchidland $38,336 $40,546 $65,213 $69,731 $220,794 $235,986 $252,075 $268,165 Lower Puna $34,635 $31,182 $33,259 $35,563 $112,606 $120,354 $128,560 $136,766 County of Hawaiʻi $54,996 $52,108 $65,401 $69,932 $73,810 $78,889 $84,267 $89,646
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Job Growth Mirrors Population Growth
The average annual growth rate for jobs averaged 1.4% since 2005, mirroring population trends, and it is
expected to mirror population trends experiencing a slight decrease in the growth rate for the next several
decades.
Forecast Analysis
Zones (FAZ)
Total Civilian Jobs
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Hilo 32,935 39,077 42,073 45,273 48,523 51,836 55,040 58,207 61,470 North Hilo – Hāmākua Coast Villages 1,927 2,286 2,461 2,648 2,838 3,032 3,220 3,405 3,596 Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo 3,303 3,919 4,219 4,540 4,866 5,198 5,519 5,837 6,164 Waimea 4,373 5,188 5,586 6,011 6,443 6,883 7,308 7,729 8,162 North Kohala 2,171 2,576 2,774 2,985 3,199 3,417 3,628 3,837 4,052 Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts 1,009 1,197 1,289 1,387 1,487 1,588 1,686 1,784 1,883 North Kona 21,100 25,035 26,955 29,005 31,087 33,210 35,263 37,291 39,382 South Kona Villages 4,312 5,116 5,508 5,927 6,353 6,786 7,206 7,620 8,048 Kaʻū 1,988 2,358 2,539 2,732 2,929 3,128 3,322 3,513 3,710 Keaʻau-Kurtistown 3,608 4,281 4,610 4,960 5,316 5,679 6,030 6,377 6,735 Upper Puna 612 726 781 841 901 963 1,022 1,081 1,141 HPP-Orchidland 31 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 Lower Puna 1,774 2,104 2,266 2,438 2,613 2,792 2,964 3,135 3,310
County of Hawaiʻi 79,142 93,900 101,100 108,790 116,600 124,560 132,260 139,870 147,710
85% Employed in the Service Sector
In 2020, 85.4% of employment was in one of the industries classified as within the services producing
sector. The three primary economic sectors of the Hawai‘i Island economy are the services producing
sector, the goods producing sector (construction and manufacturing), and agriculture. The services
producing sector (education, health, accommodation, entertainment, food, professional, financial, real
estate, public, etc.) is by far the largest, representing over 85% of employment. The agriculture sector
represents about 6.5% of employment.
More than two-thirds of workers are employed in one of five key industries: educational service,
healthcare, and social assistance (approximately 18%); arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation,
and food services (approximately 15%); retail trade (approximately 10%); professional, scientific,
management, administrative, and waste management (approximately 9%); and construction
(approximately 7%). Tourism drives the arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food
services industries and much of the retail trade, representing a large portion of employment. Employment
in the construction industry continues to be the most volatile among the top industries, with notable
spikes and dips in employment that generally correspond to fluctuations in the housing market.
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Job and Population Centers Mismatch = Longer Commutes
Data varies by source and date, but in general, about 42% of jobs in Hawai‘i County are in Hilo, another
quarter in North Kona, 7% in the Waikoloa and Waimea areas, and about 1 to 7% in each of the other
population centers.
It is useful to compare these job centers with the County’s population centers. Hilo for example has a
surplus of jobs relative to the population, reflecting the fact that residents commute there from other
communities. At the other end of the spectrum, the Hawaiian Paradise Park-Orchidland area has a
working population that far exceeds the number of nearby jobs.
These mismatches are reflected in the increase in the Census measure of “mean travel time to work” from
24.5 minutes in 2000 to 26.8 in 2020. This is also consistent with the national trend. In 2020, the average
one-way commute in the United States increased to a new high of 27.6 minutes.
Competitive Advantages Vary
In contrast to employment and occupation data, which are from the Census and therefore tie data to the
physical location of the resident, jobs data are collected from employers and therefore tied to the physical
location of the employer.1 Hawai‘i County has the greatest number of jobs in government (18.6%); retail
(12.5%); business, professional, and other services (12.7%); health and social assistance (10.7%); dining
(9.8%); and hotels (8.6%).
Because jobs data are geographically linked to the place of employment, they can be used to identify
characteristics of job centers. A location quotient (LQ) quantifies how concentrated jobs are within a
geographic area relative to a larger area. A high location quotient in a specific industry may translate into
a competitive advantage in that industry for the local economy. The Trends and Forecasts Report
considered the LQ of Hawai‘i County vis-à-vis the State and each FAZ population center vis-à-vis the
County.
Hawai‘i County has a much higher concentration of agricultural jobs relative to the State as a whole.
Hawai‘i County also employed about 1 out of 5 residents in hospitality (arts, entertainment, recreation,
accommodations, and food services compared to 1 out of 6 for the rest of the State. On the other hand,
the information sector in Hawai‘i County is underrepresented as compared to the rest of the State.
Employment in the finance and insurance industry has also been relatively low in Hawai‘i County
compared to the State.
The competitive advantages of population centers relative to the County are provided below (LQ provided
in parentheses). The urban centers are the seat of government and the center of professional, service,
and retail trades. Agriculture, food processing, and related wholesale trade are centered in the most rural
areas and Waimea. Tourism and related industries are centered on the leeward side and in North Kohala
and Honokaʻa. Interestingly, HPP-Orchidland’s economy is quite diversified despite its limited number of
jobs. Also, the Lower Puna area appears to be a small hub for the information industry.
1 This explains the slight differences between employment and jobs data.
13
Forecast Analysis Zone (FAZ) Location Quotient Relative to the County
Hilo • Government (1.48)
• Education services and Health services (1.28)
• Transportation and utilities (1.06)
North Hilo-Hāmākua Coast Villages • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.20)
• Government (1.92)
Honokaʻa-Paʻauilo • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.71)
• Professional and business services (1.33)
• Education services and Health services (1.22)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.49)
Waimea • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.22)
• Professional services and business services (1.21)
• Education services and Health services (1.03)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.67)
North Kohala • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.31)
• Manufacturing and food processing (1.35)
• Finance and insurance, real estate and rentals (1.15)
• Professional and business services (1.02)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.61)
Kawaihae-Puakō-Waikoloa-Waikoloa
Resorts • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.22)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.33)
• Professional and business services (1.46)
• Finance and insurance, real estate and rentals (1.21)
North Kona • Transportation and utilities (1.15)
• Information (1.38)
• Finance and insurance, real estate and rentals (1.61)
• Professional and business services (1.19)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.61)
• Other services (1.14)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.29)
South Kona Villages • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.51)
• Manufacturing and food processing (2.30)
• Transportation and utilities (1.06)
• Information (1.99)
• Other services (1.48)
• Finance and insurance, real estate and rentals (1.11)
• Arts/entertainment, hotels, eating, drinking (1.02)
Ka‘ū • Agriculture, mining, and construction (2.49)
• Information (2.31)
• Education services and Health services (1.07)
• Government (1.11)
Upper Puna • Manufacturing and food processing (2.12)
• Education services and Health services (1.09)
• Government (1.84)
14
Forecast Analysis Zone (FAZ) Location Quotient Relative to the County
Kea‘au-Kurtistown • Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.57)
• Transportation and utilities (1.18)
• Education services and Health services (1.41)
• Other services (1.75)
HPP-Orchidland • Manufacturing and food processing (1.40)
• Transportation and utilities (1.15)
• Education services and Health services (1.19)
• Other services (1.43)
• Government (1.05)
Lower Puna • Manufacturing and food processing (1.05)
• Agriculture, mining, and construction (1.19)
• Information (1.62)
• Transportation and utilities (1.22)
• Professional and business services (1.50)
• Education services and Health services (1.71)