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HomeMy WebLinkAbout2024 Hawaii Housing Planning Study_Executive Summary The Housing Crisis in Hawaiʻi Grows There are few things as central to our day-to-day lives, our cost of living, and our sense of stability as the places we call "home". Housing impacts how we live together as families and households, where we live, and many of our daily decisions from where we work or go to school, how we travel, and what we do outside of work. The cost and availability of housing is the most significant driver of Hawaiʻi's tremendous cost of living, and the lack of housing has significant downstream impacts on health and well-being. For thousands of Hawaiʻi residents, with increasing numbers every year, housing residents can afford determines whether our family and friends can afford to continue living in Hawaiʻi at all. The housing crisis reverberates through every aspect of life and economic activity in Hawaiʻi. Recent needs assessments across diverse sectors emphasize this reality: healthcare providers cite housing instability as a major barrier to health outcomes1; tourism industry leaders report workforce challenges directly tied to housing affordability2; immigrant communities identify housing as their primary concern affecting employment, education and integration; and early childhood education providers note the housing crisis impacts both families’ ability to afford quality childcare and their capacity to retain qualified staff.3 Hawaiʻi benefits from a strong sense of urgency felt across communities and all levels of government. However, the challenges intersect in such ways that despite the eager efforts of many, the housing gap is widening, the barriers are deepening, and the impacts are becoming more dire. Too many units already built are used for purposes other than housing (e.g., investment, short-term rentals). Collectively, Hawaiʻi is not building fast enough, and much of what is being built - simply put - is the wrong kind of units. As households get smaller, demand rises despite decreasing overall population. Finite land, labor, and materials resources sideline projects for local families in favor of luxury projects. Outsized resources of a few push costs up further and drive Hawaiʻi residents into overcrowded homes, onto the streets, and off our shores. The challenges and the consequences are collective. So too are the opportunities and vision for a future Hawaiʻi, where every person who loves and calls her home can continue to do so for generations to come. Purpose of the Study to Drive Insights Published approximately every five years since the early 1990s, the 2024 Hawaiʻi Housing Planning Study (HHPS) seeks to look at Hawaiʻi’s housing needs through 2027, provide insight into the scale and nature of the housing crisis impacting residents across all counties, and support housing planners and policymakers in addressing the housing needs of Hawaiʻi’s communities. This 2024 HHPS analyzes current housing supply, affordability challenges, and demand trends to inform policy and development strategies that address the critical shortage of affordable units, particularly for lower-income households, Native Hawaiian communities, and 3 Hawaiʻi Early Childhood Comprehensive Needs Assessment, 2020. 2 Visitor Industry Needs Assessment, 2024. 1 Community Health Needs Assessment, 2021. Healthcare Association of Hawaiʻi. other vulnerable populations. Similar studies are conducted across the United States and provide insight into evolving methodology to inform a shortage crisis that is deepening throughout the country, offering data-driven approaches to guide collaborative efforts among government, private sector, and community stakeholders in ensuring stable, affordable housing for all Hawaiʻi residents. The 2024 HHPS reveals a housing market in crisis, with conditions worsening for residents across all counties. In 2022, Hawaiʻi had 568,058 total housing units, with 516,242 (90.9%) available to residents (Table 2). Of these, 494,827 were occupied, leaving just 21,415 vacant and available—a mere 4.1% of the housing stock (Table 2). The remaining 51,816 units (9.1%), including 35,884 seasonal units, were unavailable, largely due to vacation rentals (Figure 3B). Between 2017 and 2022, total units grew by 4.6% (25,103 units, Table 3), yet vacant available units dropped 20.7%, from 26,988 to 21,415 (Figure 8). This shift reflects units moving into occupied status—potentially easing supply pressure—but leaves a critically low vacancy rate, tightening the market. Despite adding nearly 48,000 housing units statewide from 2010 to 2022—an average of 4,000 new units per year—available stock for residents has shrunk. In Kauaʻi County, for instance, nearly 4,900 new units built between 2010 and 2020 resulted in a net loss of 334 available units, a trend driven by a 22.3% share of units classified as unavailable in 2022 (compared to Honolulu’s 6.9%), highlighting how new construction often feeds the vacation market rather than resident needs. Despite these supply gains, an estimated 64,490 additional units are needed through 2027 to meet current and projected demand, including for special populations like DHHL-eligible households (Table 39C), emphasizing the scale of the ongoing shortage. Of these needed units, 42,100 or 65% of the total needed through 2027 are at levels affordable for households earning 80% AMI and below. Affordability Challenges Deepen Hawaiʻi’s affordability crisis has deepened since the 2019 HHPS. In 2022, Hawai‘i had the nation’s highest average rents, surpassing the District of Columbia and New York.4 The 2023 two-bedroom housing hourly wage is $41.83 (Table 6)—second only to California ($42.25)—reflecting the income needed to afford a median-priced two-bedroom unit while spending no more than 30% of income on housing. Yet, renter households earn just $24.37 on 4 ACS, Table B25064,5-yr. estimates, for Hawai‘i, U.S., 50 States, and selected SMSAs, 2009 through 2017. average, leaving a $17.46 hourly gap, the largest in the U.S. (Table 36). Statewide, renters face higher monthly costs than homeowners, amplifying affordability challenges for those without ownership stability. Rents rose 15.5% from 2019 to 2023, outpacing wage growth and widening the affordability divide (Figure 25). As a result, 57.8% of all renters are cost-burdened, spending over 30% of income on housing, with nearly a quarter of Maui County households paying 50% or more of their income on housing (Figure 14). This growing gap drives out-migration, as families seek affordable regions, with an average of 214 residents leaving Hawaiʻi every day. The affordability crisis is particularly acute for homeless households, many of whom are employed yet unable to secure stable housing. Among those without any disabling conditions, the rate of employment for heads of households is notably high at 62%. However, even with full-time work at Hawaiʻi’s 2022 minimum wage of $12 an hour (prior to recent increases), an individual earns approximately $24,000 annually, or $1,920 monthly. At the recommended maximum of 30% of income for housing, this leaves just $576 per month for rent—far below the state’s median rent of $1,813. This stark disparity highlights how even working homeless households struggle to afford housing, exacerbating the shortage and emphasizing the need for targeted affordable housing solutions. FIGURE 1: STATE OF HAWAI‘I HOUSING IN 2022, THE AFFORDABILITY GAP Source: 2024 Hawaiʻi Housing Planning Study. Data as of 2022 unless otherwise noted.5 5 Source: 2024 Hawaiʻi Housing Planning Study. Data as of 2022 unless otherwise noted. Notes: To Afford a 2-Bedroom Rental: $41.83/hr equals $87,013 annual income; 139 hours represents hours needed per week at FIGURE 2: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING COST BURDEN BY INCOME SHARE IN HAWAIʻI, 2022 Source: 2024 HHPS, Table 5 (ACS 2022). Housing Supply and Affordability Crisis Hawaiʻi currently faces a critical housing shortage of 64,490 units needed to meet current and pent-up demand through 2027. This total comprises 62,750 units to address the 2022 shortage, an additional 14,408 housing units to accommodate population growth between 2023 and 2027, and 803 vacant units to provide necessary market flexibility.6 Of these needed units, 46.5% are for ownership and 53.5% for rentals, with 71.9% being single-family and 28.1% multi-family (percentages derived from Table 39). While 13,471 units are currently in development pipelines and anticipated to be available by 2027, they will address only 20.8% of the total needed units by 2027. The number of units needed to meet demand is a significant increase from what was needed in 2019, primarily 6 Note: the components do not sum directly to 64,490 due to a methodological adjustment in Table 39, which reconciles overlapping demand categories (e.g., pent-up demand and growth-related demand) as detailed in Section III per the 2024 HHPS methodology. minimum wage ($12/hr); Housing Supply Crisis: 64,490 units needed' represents additional units required beyond planned development (13,471 units in pipeline) through 2027; 35,884 units unavailable' includes vacation rentals, seasonal homes, and other units held off the residential market; Household Cost Burden: Percentages represent 87.2% of total households (remaining households did not report); 30% of income is the federal standard for housing affordability. Note: The 64,490 units needed through 2027 do not include losses from the 2023 Maui fires, which destroyed approximately 2,000 homes. reflecting a change in methodology that will be explained in greater detail later in the report. Had the methodology remained the same, the number of needed units through 2027 would be relatively similar to the projected units needed through 2025 (51,156 units). The current pipeline through 2027 seeks to address 26% of the units identified as needed through 2025. A Smart Growth America study, commissioned by AARP Hawai‘i, highlights that, without continued efforts, up to 1,056 subsidized units could potentially lose their affordability requirements between 2023 and 2025, and over 11,000 units could be at risk of converting to market-rate housing by 2045, potentially reducing affordable housing options. The Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation (HHFDC), a key stakeholder in addressing Hawai‘i’s housing needs, notes that it has actively negotiated extensions of affordability deadlines for some of these units, which will likely reduce the number at risk. These efforts were not reflected in the study’s data, emphasizing the need for ongoing collaboration to ensure accurate data and sustained affordability.7 Detailed analysis of housing needs by income level, tenure, and housing type (Table 39) reveals that Hawaiʻi faces both an overall housing shortage and a complex affordability crisis. Of the 64,490 total units needed, 64% are needed to house households earning 80% or less of the area median income (AMI). Over a quarter of the needed units (26.7% or 17,242 units) are for households earning 30% AMI or below. Members of this income group tend to be seniors on fixed incomes, single parents, those earning near the minimum wage, and individuals experiencing homelessness. This includes a specific need for 8,508 units to accommodate DHHL-eligible households, of which 55% are for ownership and 75% single-family units. The analysis shows particular strain in the multi-family rental market, where current supply and planned development fall significantly short of demand across lower and moderate income levels. This shortage is especially acute for households earning between 50-120% AMI—the workforce housing segment. Between 2017 and 2022, a shift of units from 'vacant' to 'occupied' status occurred, with vacant available units dropping 20.7% from 26,988 to 21,415 (Table 3, Figure 8). The shift of units from vacant to the housing supply (vacant and available units declining 13.5% from 24,759 to 21,415), may be partly due to County-level efforts to curb illegal vacation rentals, increasing the available housing stock for residents (Section II). The significant portion of housing stock still unavailable to residents due to vacation and short-term rental use greatly compounds Hawaiʻi’s housing challenges. Of Hawaiʻi’s 568,058 total housing units in 2022, 35,884 units (over two thirds of unavailable units) are unavailable to meet resident demand due to seasonal, recreational, or occasional use. The impact of seasonal units varies significantly by county, ranging from 3.6% of total units in the City and County of Honolulu up to 11.6% in Kauaʻi County (Figure 22). This use of new and existing residential units for visitor accommodations further diminishes an already limited housing supply, particularly affecting the neighbor islands, where tourism pressure on the housing market is most acute. 7 Michael A. Rodriguez, "Affordable Housing in Hawai'i: Inventory and Strategies," Smart Growth America, February 2024, https://smartgrowthamerica.org. The housing crisis plays an active role in driving out-migration from Hawaiʻi, with nearly 40,000 households planning to leave the state within the next five years. Of these households, 60.8% cite housing costs as a primary reason for their decision to leave (2022-2023 Housing Demand Survey). This includes a disproportionate impact on Native Hawaiians, with 2020 Census data showing that for the first time, more Native Hawaiians now live outside Hawaiʻi (53%). This out-migration trend particularly affects Honolulu County, where 75.9% of those planning to leave currently reside—higher than its 68.4% share of the state’s households (Table 15) but consistent with its historical 81.0% average share of actual out-migration from 2017-2023 (Table 14). The data also reveals an important market imbalance: while the greatest need exists at lower income levels, current development patterns show surpluses of units at higher income levels, particularly in the multi-family ownership category. This mismatch between housing production and actual market needs suggests that addressing Hawaiʻi’s housing crisis requires not just increasing overall supply, but fundamentally realigning development priorities with resident needs. The distribution of need varies significantly by county, with the City and County of Honolulu requiring 25,710 units, which is 6.9% of its 2022 housing stock of 373,863 units, followed by Hawaiʻi County needing 18,879 units, or 20.8% of its 90,673 units, Maui County requiring 14,987 units, or 20.5% of its 72,941 units, and Kauaʻi County needing 4,914 units, or 16.1% of its 30,476 units. These percentages reflect each county’s needed units (Table 39) as a proportion of its respective housing stock (Table 1). Hawaiʻi’s housing market faces another unique challenge: while struggling to meet local housing needs, it simultaneously attracts significant demand from outside the state. For the last ten years, nearly a quarter of all residential home sales in Hawaiʻi were to persons who live outside the state, exacerbating pressure on an already constrained market. In 2022, these out-of-state purchases totaled $6.12 billion, with continental U.S. buyers contributing $5.46 billion and international buyers $660 million. Purchase prices for units bought by out-of-state buyers were, on average, 63.2% higher than prices paid by local buyers, reflecting both lifestyle preferences and investment appeal. Real estate in Hawaiʻi offers strong returns, with property values in urban Honolulu appreciating an average of 4.56% annually since 2000—among the highest in the nation—driven by potential for rental income, particularly through visitor accommodations. As an island state with finite developable land, this external demand intensifies the shortage, reducing housing availability and affordability for residents. Hawaiʻi’s strategic military presence also has a significant impact on the housing landscape, with 85,234 active-duty members and dependents—6% of the population—occupying 14% of Oʻahu’s rental units, meaningfully impacted by competitive Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) rates. This dynamic, compounded by planned increases including 2,700 additional Marines, adds further pressure to an already strained market. The structure of Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) loans, with no down payment and favorable terms, further strains Hawaiʻi’s housing market by enabling qualifying military personnel and their families to transition from renting to owning more easily than local residents in a high-cost, low-inventory environment. Housing Cost Burden Hits Vulnerable Households Hardest Housing costs weigh heavily across all income levels, especially for lower-income households. Among Hawaiʻi households with computed cost burdens in 2022, only 43.6% spend 30% or less of their income on housing—the traditional “affordable” threshold—while 23.1% spend 30-50% (15.5% at 30-39%, 7.6% at 40-49%), and 20.5% face severe burden, spending over 50% (Table 5). The remaining 12.8% are uncategorized, likely due to incomplete data (e.g., zero-income households). Those earning less than $15,000 annually bear the heaviest burden, forming the largest share of severely cost-burdened households across all counties (Table 6). Hawaiʻi’s population facing housing insecurity, estimated at 208,282 households (45.7% of all households), and 27% at-risk of homelessness, further illustrates the depth of this crisis. The demographic profile of these at-risk households reveals additional layers of vulnerability. The majority fall within the age range of 30 to 49 (45%), are almost evenly split between married (36%) and single-person households (33%), and predominantly identify as White/Caucasian (55%), with household incomes typically below $15,000 (15%). Notably, close to one-third of these households have a college degree (29%) or some college education (25%), and almost half (41%) were born and raised in Hawaiʻi. These characteristics challenge assumptions about who is at risk, highlighting that even educated, local residents face severe housing instability due to low incomes and high costs. Hawaiʻi has the fastest-aging population in the country, with significant implications for housing needs among seniors. In 2022, there were 289,698 people aged 65 or older, a 9% increase since 2019, and projections indicate this group will grow from 319,908 in 2025 to 352,240 by 2030—an 11% rise. Based on the 2021 65+ category with independent living difficulties (14,232 individuals), there is one “bed” in a care home or facility for every three seniors. Using the historical growth trend from Table 59, the number of seniors with independent living difficulties is projected to reach 28,357 by 2030. If the demand remains the same, Hawaiʻi will require 9,452 beds by 2030, an increase of approximately 4,712 beds from 2021. For the approximately 36,000 seniors not in care facilities, family or in-home care services are critical, often necessitating home retrofits like grab bars, ramps, and emergency call systems to support aging in place. However, limited options may force many to remain in inadequate housing due to the shortage of specialized units. Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) also face growing housing needs. Assuming this group still makes up 2.8% of the population, this would equate to 42,148 individuals by 2030. With 24% of those with any mental illness receiving residential or other services in 2021, the demand for supportive housing units—such as care homes, transitional programs, or permanent housing—will rise proportionally, further straining the state’s capacity to serve special needs populations. Native Hawaiian households facing acute challenges rooted in historical displacement and economic inequities. The Department of Hawaiian Home Lands (DHHL) manages housing for 32,190 beneficiary households, comprising 7,992 Lessee-only, 20,323 Applicant-only, and 3,875 Lessee and Applicant households.8 However, a waitlist of 47,086 applications from 29,451 beneficiaries emphasizes significant unmet demand.9 Beyond current beneficiaries, an estimated 16,898 households with members at least 50% Native Hawaiian (HHCA-eligible) are not enrolled with DHHL, reflecting untapped need.10 A 2023 survey of 996 DHHL applicants revealed that 14% plan to leave Hawaiʻi within five years due to housing pressures. Ownership aspirations remain strong: 49% of applicants and 57.5% of HHCA-eligible households intend to buy, with 90.5% of applicants and 75% of HHCA-eligible renters willing to purchase if affordable options existed.11 However, financial constraints limit these goals—38.1% of applicants and 32% of HHCA-eligible households can afford less than $25,000 for a down payment, with monthly housing costs peaking at $1,500–$2,499 for 39.8% of applicants and $1,000–$2,499 for 60% of HHCA-eligible households, well below median mortgage costs (e.g., $2,851 for applicant homeowners).12 To address these and other challenges, an estimated 8,508 housing units are needed statewide for DHHL-eligible households from 2023 to 2027, calculated using a distinct methodology due to limited DHHL pipeline data, combining HHPS survey responses from households with 50%+ Native Hawaiian ancestry and DHHL applicant data, and reflecting households planning to move within five years. This includes 4,650 ownership units (4,144 single-family, 506 multi-family) and 3,858 rental units (2,207 single-family, 1,651 multi-family).13 Nearly half (4,788 units) target households earning below 60% of Area Median Income (AMI), reflecting acute need among the lowest income brackets.14 The 2023 DHHL Beneficiary Demand Survey further highlights the importance of investing in DHHL developments, which by their nature both help to address the unique needs of this community—rooted in historical displacement and economic pressures—while also addressing county and AMI-level needs where demand is greatest, offering a strategic opportunity to align housing solutions with market shortages. A majority of respondents at risk for homelessness are currently renting their housing unit (67%), with close to half residing in single-family units (48%). These at-risk households pay a median monthly rent of $1,957—significantly higher than their incomes can support. Considering that a substantial portion of these households earn less than $15,000 annually, many are severely rent-burdened, spending well over the 30% affordability threshold. This precarious housing status, combined with limited access to rental assistance, heightens their risk of homelessness and stresses the urgent need for affordable rental options tailored to low-income residents. 14 Source: Table 39C, summing <30% (1,348), 30–50% (1,407), and 50–60% (361) AMI units. 13 Source: Table 39C (Housing Units Needed for DHHL-Eligible Households, 2023–2027), statewide totals. 12 Source: Preferences Among Eligible/Applicants, (MOV10 and MOV11), with 38.1% (186/488) and 39.8% (cumulative $1,500–$2,499) for applicants, 32% (16/50) and 60% (cumulative $1,000–$2,499) for HHCA-eligible; Section VI provides median mortgage ($2,851). 11 Source: Preferences Among Eligible/Applicants, (MOV5 and MOV8), with 49% (488/996) and 90.5% (124/137) for applicants, 57.5% (50/87) and 75% (6/8) for HHCA-eligible. 10 Source: Section VI, estimate of HHCA-eligible households not enrolled with DHHL. 9 Source: Section VI, reflecting total applications from 29,451 unique beneficiaries. Beneficiaries may appear on multiple lists for various use types: residential, agricultural, pastoral. 8 Source: Section VI, Table 56, and DHHL Beneficiaries by County. Affordability, however, remains a stark barrier. Among DHHL lessees and applicants, 53% earn 80% or less of AMI, with 14% below 30% AMI; for HHCA-eligible households, 66% earn 80% or less, with nearly 30% below 30% AMI.15 Cost burdens are pervasive—50% of applicants, 44% of lessees, and 63% of HHCA-eligible households spend over 30% of income on housing, with 32% of the latter exceeding 50%.16 Overcrowding and doubling-up compound these pressures, affecting 30% of HHCA-eligible households.17 Homelessness disproportionately impacts Native Hawaiians, with the Homelessness Management Information System (HMIS) reporting Native Hawaiians comprising 37% (3,089) of the 8,311 total households served, though only 11% (332) exited into permanent housing.18 Evolution of Methodology: Understanding the Increase in Needed Units The findings of the HHPS are based on a comprehensive research methodology, which is continually evaluated and refined as more information about the housing market becomes available. Additionally, it incorporates how other jurisdictions approach their housing studies, especially in light of continuing and emerging crises across the United States. The methodology used in the HHPS integrates multiple data sources, including: ● Housing inventory analysis ● A robust 2022-2023 Housing Demand Survey of over 5,000 households ● A targeted 2023 DHHL Beneficiary Demand Survey of 996 DHHL applicants and 87 eligible households, focusing on Native Hawaiian housing preferences ● Detailed price studies ● Interviews with housing developers and planners ● Extensive analysis of special needs and Native Hawaiian housing requirements This approach seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of current conditions while acknowledging limitations. These include reliance on 2011-2019 intercensal data pending Census Bureau revisions and the effects of the 2023 Maui fires, which destroyed approximately 2,000 homes after the survey was done. The Census revision may impact estimates of housing demand and needed units for the next five years, as the 2020 Census estimates and American Community Survey (ACS) data have shown discrepancies, with June 2024 adjustments covering population and housing units for 2020-2023. Throughout this report, we indicate the data sources used, including the year, to maintain transparency about these limitations. Readers will notice an increased estimate of Needed Units from the 2019 HHPS to 2024 HHPS, highlighting 50,156 needed units for 2020-2025 and 64,490 needed units through 2027. Without the 2024 methodology improvements, the estimated Needed Units remain relatively constant, with nearly the same number of units needed for 2027 (HHPS 2024) as was needed for 2025 (HHPS 2019). The primary drivers of the changes in the 2024 HHPS include: 18 Source: Section VI, Table 59, 2022–2023 HMIS data; 7,303 households remained unhoused (8,311 total served minus 1,008 exited to permanent housing), with 3,089 Native Hawaiian (37%) and 332 exiting (11%). 17 Source: Section VI, overcrowding and doubling-up prevalence. 16 Source: Section VI, cost burden percentages across groups. 15 Source: Section VI, income ranges for beneficiaries and HHCA-eligible households. 1. Pipeline Units Added to Supply – For the first time, the 2024 HHPS includes 13,471 units in the pipeline, expected to be completed by year-end 2027. Previous studies acknowledged these projects but did not factor them in as anticipated supply for the projection model. 2. Swap Space Added to Demand – Prior HHPS reports have mentioned the need for approximately 5% additional units to account for units currently on the rental or for-sale markets but had not integrated them into the needed units model. The model now incorporates this demand for 27,563 units (5 per 100 units of supply) into the estimates. This is discussed more fully in Section III: Needed Housing Units. Policy Implications and Path Forward The findings of the 2024 HHPS call for urgent action to address Hawaiʻi’s housing crisis. Success will likely require increased supply, specifically that which addresses the need for units affordable to households earning 80% AMI and below, which includes 73% of Hawaiʻi’s households. Increased supply may, for example, take the form of continued movement of vacant units into the market available for housing local families, increased production that outpaces increases in demand, and changes in density experienced within existing units. The combination of insufficient supply, declining affordability, and increasing cost burden threatens community stability and economic vitality. The mismatch between housing development and actual market needs must be addressed, including investment in addressing growing needs within unique segments including special needs populations, senior housing, Native Hawaiian communities, and households experiencing homelessness. The 2024 HHPS provides detailed analysis of these challenges and opportunities, offering data-driven insights to inform both immediate solutions and long-term structural changes to Hawaiʻi’s housing development and policy framework. Although HHFDC, HPHA, and DHHL target distinct areas of the housing market, addressing Hawaiʻi’s housing crisis demands broader coordination—across agencies, levels of government, and interconnected policy areas such as education, healthcare, land use, and taxation. Through strengthened collaboration between government, private sector, and community stakeholders, Hawaiʻi can work toward ensuring all residents have access to stable, affordable housing.