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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCommunication No. 2026-12 Kau Flooding Events and Drivers Civil Defense ReportSelected Impactful Rain Events - Kaʻū District National Weather Service Communication No. 2026-12 RECENT IMPACTFUL RAIN EVENTS The March 2026 Kona Lows Back-to-back storm systems brought prolonged heavy rainfall to Hawaiʻi Island. The first system produced 15 to 25 inches of rain across the Kaʻū District, with localized areas receiving over 30 inches. The rainfall led to overflowing streams, landslides, and roadway closures. A second system moved over the saturated ground on March 23, producing thunderstorms with rainfall rates of over 4 inches per hour from Pāhala through Hilo, which resulted in additional road closures. The February 2023 Kona Lows Two Kona lows affected the state, resulting in notable flooding across the Kaʻū District. The first storm produced 15 to 25 inches of rain across southeastern Hawaiʻi Island, with rainfall rates exceeding 3 inches per hour at Kapapala Ranch. The resulting runoff led to several road closures, including Wood Valley Road, Kaalaiki Road, and Highway 11 at Kawa Flats. Due to the high soil moisture from this initial system, a second storm on February 20 and 21 caused additional runoff that closed Highway 11 at Kawa Flats again. The November 2000 Event In early November 2000, the remnants of a tropical storm brought catastrophic flooding to parts of Hawaiʻi Island, including the Kaʻū District. The highest precipitation occurred between November 1 and November 2, when a gauge at Kapapala Ranch near Pāhala recorded 38.97 inches of rain. The flooding damaged or destroyed four bridges along the Mamalahoa Highway, temporarily closing the primary route between Pāhala and Hilo and leading to a federal disaster declaration. METEOROLOGICAL DRIVERS OF FLOODING Meteorological Similarities The March 2026, February 2023, and November 2000 events share a fundamental meteorological pattern: they were all driven by large-scale, slow-moving low-pressure systems. These systems disrupted the typical northeasterly trade winds and drew deep plumes of warm, equatorial moisture northward over the state. Wind Direction and Orographic Lift During all three events, the counter-clockwise circulation of the low-pressure systems generated southerly winds. This shift in wind direction is a contributing factor for extreme rainfall. When these moisture-laden winds encounter the island's topography, the air is mechanically forced to rise. As the air ascends, it expands, cools, and condenses its water vapor into rain—a process known as orographic lift. Why the Kaʻū District Was Highly Impacted The pronounced impacts in the Kaʻū District are a direct result of its geography. The district is located on the expansive southern and southeastern slopes of Mauna Loa. While it is somewhat sheltered during normal trade-wind patterns, it is fully exposed to southerly and southeasterly wind flows. When anomalous low-pressure systems drive deep tropical moisture directly into the broad, high-elevation slopes of Mauna Loa, the resulting orographic lift is highly efficient. The mountain acts as an orographic barrier, anchoring rain bands in place and continuously wringing out moisture as long as the southerly winds persist. This localized, sustained rainfall rapidly exceeds the soil's infiltration capacity, leading to rapid runoff and significant flash flooding in the drainages and communities below. KONA LOWS OF MARCH 10-24, 2026 Event Summary Between March 10 and March 24, 2026, the Hawaiian Islands experienced a historic weather disaster driven by back-to-back storm systems. The first major storm delivered its heaviest rainfall from Tuesday, March 10, through Monday, March 16. This phase dropped 15 to 25 inches of rain across portions of Hawaiʻi Island—including the Kaʻū District—with localized areas seeing over 30 inches. Most of this rain fell during a single 24 hour period on March 14. As one of the hardest-hit areas in the state, the southern half of the Hawaiʻi County suffered from overflowing streams, landslides, road closures, and significant flooding of homes and businesses, while severe winds downed trees and caused widespread power outages. Because the ground was already entirely saturated, a second storm system easily triggered additional flooding the following week. The heaviest rain for the Big Island during this second wave arrived on March 23, bringing intense thunderstorms with rainfall rates of over 4 inches per hour stretching from Pāhala (in the Kaʻū District) through Hilo. Fortunately, the impacts on the Big Island during this final round were primarily limited to road closures from heavy ponding before the skies finally cleared on March 24. KONA LOWS OF MARCH 10-24, 2026 PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS During the Kona Lows of March 2026 the nearest weather stations to Waiʻōhinu received around 30” of rainfall. The majority of this rain fell on 3/14. An additional heavy rain event impacted the Pāhala area on 3/23. Location Total Pahala (15004)32.14 Kaiholena (UHM)29.32 Kapapala Ranch (15003)30.22 KONA LOWS OF MARCH 10-24, 2026 DAILY PRECIPITATION Of the ~30” that fall during both Kona Storms the majority of the rain occurred on one day (3/14). Each of the three closest weather stations recorded over 15” during this particular 24 hour period. There was an additional heavy rain day on 3/23, which primarily impacted areas from Pāhala into the lower Puna District. Location 3/10/2026 3/11/2026 3/12/2026 3/13/2026 3/14/2026 3/15/2026 3/16/2026 3/17/2026 3/18/2026 3/19/2026 3/20/2026 3/21/2026 3/22/2026 3/23/2026 3/24/2026 Pahala (15004)0.01 0.96 0.36 1.78 17.66 0.37 1.88 0.55 0.46 0.09 0.02 0.04 0.38 7.12 0.46 Kaiholena (UHM)0.07 0.55 0.49 3.86 20.80 0.37 0.19 0.27 0.94 0.13 0.07 0.02 0.35 0.78 0.43 Kapapala Ranch (15003)0.00 0.39 0.41 2.60 18.99 0.46 0.58 0.95 0.78 0.13 0.01 0.88 0.46 3.88 0.20 RADAR ESTIMATES Radar estimates suggest upwards of 20” of rain fell in the higher terrain above. The lower values values near Nāʻālehu are an artifact due to the local terrain blocking the radar beam. KONA LOWS OF MARCH 10-24, 2026 MARCH 10 Little to no rain MARCH 11 Light Amounts MARCH 12 Light Amounts MARCH 13 Rain Amounts Increase MARCH 14 Peak Rainfall Day KONA LOWS OF MARCH 10-24, 2026 MARCH 15 Light Amounts MARCH 16 Light Amounts MARCH 17 Light Amounts MARCH 18 Light Amounts MARCH 19 Light Amounts KONA LOWS OF MARCH 10-24, 2026 MARCH 20 Light Amounts MARCH 21 Light Amounts MARCH 22 Light Amounts MARCH 23 Second Peak Rain Day Pāhala area MARCH 24 Light Amounts KONA LOWS OF FEB 16-21, 2023 Summary In mid-February 2023, a pair of Kona low storm systems brought severe flash flooding to the state. The first storm began impacting the Big Island late on Thursday, February 16, and intensified on the morning of Friday, February 17. The Kaʻū District was hit heavily during this initial wave, with flooding forcing the closure of Highway 11 at Kawa Flats, Wood Valley Road, and Kaalaiki Road. The heavy rain intensified further early Saturday morning, with automated gauges (including at Kapapala Ranch) recording extreme rainfall rates of more than 3 inches per hour. This kept several roads impassable across the Kaʻū and Puna districts until the storm finally diminished on Saturday night. After a brief break on Sunday, February 19, the second storm system arrived. While its heaviest rainfall focused primarily on Kauaʻi and Oʻahu, it still dropped rain over the slopes of the Kaʻū District on Monday, February 20. Even though the rainfall totals on the Big Island were relatively low during this second wave, the ground was already saturated from previous system. This caused immediate runoff and another episode of flooding that once again shut down Highway 11 at Kawa Flats. KONA LOWS OF FEBRUARY 16-21, 2023 DAILY PRECIPITATION - FEB 17, 2023 RADAR ESTIMATES Radar estimates suggest the heaviest rain fell from February 16-18, 2023. Additional lighter rain amounts occurred through February 21st. DAILY PRECIPITATION - FEB 18, 2023 FLOODING OF NOV 1-3, 2000 Summary In early November 2000, the remnants of Tropical Storm Paul interacted with an upper-level trough resulting in thunderstorms and historic flooding for Hawaiʻi County. The heaviest rain fell between November 1 and November 2, severely impacting the Kaʻū District. A rain gauge at Kapapala Ranch near Pāhala recorded an astonishing 38.97 inches of rain, with 37.02 inches falling in just a 24-hour period. This overwhelmed streams, carved out new flood channels, and triggered numerous landslides. Significant to catastrophic flooding impacts occurred across the Kaʻū, Puna, and Hilo districts. Flooding damaged or destroyed four bridges along the Mamalahoa Highway (Highway 11), and damaged or destroyed nearly 300 homes. FLOODING OF NOV 1-3, 2000 STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION - FEB 17, 2023 TOTAL RAINFALL Rain totals exceeding 30 inches we reported in portions of the Kaʻū District during this event. SELECT RAIN TOTALS