HomeMy WebLinkAboutIPFNA_Growth Analysis Memo_Jan_06
Infrastructure and
Public Facilities
Needs Assessment:
Growth Analysis
Memorandum
prepared for
Planning Department
County of Hawai i
prepared by
D A
UNCAN SSOCIATES
in association with
H H & F
ELBER ASTERT EE
January 2006
Introduction
Hawai i County is currently undertaking an impact fee st udy to determine the fe asibility of implementing
an impact fee program. An impact fee is a one-time charge on development, designed to cover the cost
of growthÔs impact on infrastructure. Impact fees are designed to ensure that new development
contributes a fair share of the cost of the capital improvements needed to serve growth.
The purpose of this memorandum is to provide land use and demogr
CountyÔs impact fee study. This memorandum consis ts of a comprehensive analysis of the CountyÔs
growth patterns and trends.
Existing land use data is a key building block for im pact fee analysis, since it is necessary for determining
current levels of service. For most types of facilities, the existing level of service is, in some form, a ratio
of existing capital facilities to ex isting development being served by those facilities. Most communities
have reasonably accurate estimates of existing housi ng units, but many lack reliable data on existing
nonresidential development. One of the best sources of such data is the local property tax assessor's
office. Significant useful information on residential development is available from the US census. In
particular, these data sources provide valuable in formation on average household size by housing type,
number of bedrooms, and other characteristics that can be used i
This memorandum describes existing residential and nonresidential development from the local tax
assessor's database, summarizes available census in formation on dwelling units and average household
size by housing type and number of bedrooms, es timates existing residential development based on
census data, building permits and other local data , summarizes local population estimates and growth
projections, and estimates existing nonresidential development.
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Population
The County of Hawai i encompasses the entire island of Hawai i and has the largest land area of
Hawai iÔs counties. The land area of the County is approximately twice the combined land area of all
the other islands of the State.
Traditionally, agriculture played an important role in the CountyÔs economy an d much of the CountyÔs
population growth and development were tied to the growth and employment needs of its agricultural
economy. The island of Hawai iÔs diverse climate, topography and scenic beauty along with the
innovations in the travel and leisure industry ha ve caused tourism to emerge as the primary economic
activity. In addition, the County has seen
Figure 1
substantial population growth beyond what
POPULATION GROWTH, 1940-2020
would be expected from economic opportunities
in the CountyÔs primary industries; such
population growth has most likely been due to
in-migration of people drawn to the quality of life
in the County.
The County of Hawai i is currently the second
most populous County in Hawai i. The 2000
U.S. Census recorded the CountyÔs population as
148,677. Figure 1 shows the population growth
since 1940, and the projected growth through
2020.
The County of Hawai iÔs population growth has
remained relatively constant over the last two
decades, with a slight decline from an annual rate of 2.71 percent in the 1980s to 2.14 percent in the
1990s. According to population projections provid ed in the medium series projections in the Hawai
i
County General Plan , Hawai i CountyÔs population is expected to
grow at about 1.9 percent a year over the next two decades.
Figure 2
Under this growth assumption, the CountyÔs population is
JUDICIAL DISTRICTS
expected to be about 217,718 in 2020.
As shown in Table 1, while the overall County population
growth has been fairly constant, certain districts have
experienced much more rapid growth than the County as a
whole. The Districts of Puna, South Kohala and North
Kohala have experienced the most rapid growth during the
1980s and 1990s. During the 1990s Puna grew annually by
4.19 percent, South Kohala grew annually by 3.69 percent and
North Kohala grew by 3.47 percent per year.
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Table 1
HAWAII COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH
Annual Growth Rate
Judicial
District 19801990200080-9090-00
1-Puna11,75120,78131,3355.87%4.19%
2-South Hilo42,27844,63947,3860.54%0.60%
3-North Hilo1,6791,5411,720-0.85%1.10%
4-Hamakua5,1285,5456,1080.78%0.97%
5-North Kohala3,2494,2916,0382.82%3.47%
6-South Kohala4,607 9,14013,1317.09%3.69%
7-North Kona13,74822,28428,5434.95%2.51%
8-South Kona5,9147,6588,5892.62%1.15%
9-Ka u 3,6994,4385,8271.84%2.76%
Total 92,053120,317148,6772.71%2.14%
Source: County of Hawai i Data Book, Section 1 <http://www.hawaii-county.com/>.
In addition to the resident population, Hawai i County has a significant tourist population. Table 2
shows the resident population and visitor industry projections through 2020. Based on data from the
Hawai i County General Plan , there were 1,265,700 visitors and 10,0 41 hotel rooms in the County in 2000.
The average daily visitor census data illustrates the significance of tourism an d its effect on the CountyÔs
functional population; under the assumptions used in fo recasting total visitors, the average daily number
of visitors is projected to increase by 2.00 percent annually, from 21,831 in 2000 to 32,440 in 2020. The
CountyÔs functional population is the total resident popu lation plus the average daily visitor count.
Table 2
HAWAII COUNTY POPULATION AND VISITORS
Resident Avg. Daily Hotel
Year Population Visitors Rooms
1985105,900 8,040 7,511
1990120,317 16,970 8,952
1995137,290 18,650 9,575
2000148,677 21,831 10,041
2005159,908 24,103 10,513
2010176,937 26,612 10,892
2015195,965 29,382 11,200
2020217,718 32,440 11,452
Source: Hawai i County General Plan , Table 1-5; Average Daily Visitor Census,
i County Data Book , Table 7.3, data from 2005-2020
1985 to 2000, from Hawai
derived used total visitor growth rate projected increase of 2%
i County General Plan .
Hawai
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AWAI I OUNTY NFRASTRUCTURE EEDS SSESSMENT ROWTH NALYSIS EMORANDUM
Average Household Size
When calculating an impact fee, data on average house hold size for various types of housing units is a
critical component. The most recent and reliable data on averag i County is
the 2000 U.S. Census. As shown in Table 3 belo w, average household size varies by housing type,
ranging from 1.99 persons per mobile home unit to 2.87 persons per single-family detached unit.
Table 3
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY HOUSING TYPE
Household Occupied Avg.
Housing Type Population Units HH Size
Single-Family Detached123,43142,9842.87
Multi-Family21,9049,7042.26
Mobile home5912971.99
All Housing Types145,92652,9852.75
Source: 2000 U.S. Census for the County of Hawai i, Summary File 3 (sample
data).
For single-family units, the County may desire to vary the fees
the only measure of dwelling unit size recorded by the Census Bureau is bedrooms and total rooms in
the dwelling unit, it is recommended that the fees be based on square footage rather than number of
bedrooms or rooms in a unit. Although some municipalities charge impact fees on the basis of
bedrooms, it can be an administrative challenge to determine the number of bedrooms when there is
a financial incentive to disguise bedrooms as someth ing else (a den or storage room, for example). An
alternative is to translate bedrooms or total rooms into size ca
To determine a relationship between the unit square
Figure 3
footage, bedrooms and household population in Hawai i
RESIDENTS BY UNIT SIZE
County, the consultant compiled data on all 630 single-
family homes listed for sale in the County from the
National Association of Realtors website
(www.realtor.com) on October 19, 2005. These on-line
listings give square footage and the number of bedrooms
for each home offered for sale. A variable for average
household size was added, consisting of the average
household size multipliers by housing type and number
of bedrooms derived from 2000 U.S. Census sample
data. Regression analysis was then performed to
determine the relationship between unit size in square
feet and persons residing in the unit. Both linear and
logarithmic regressions were performed. The linear
regression was statistically significant, with the linear
1
equation accounting for 35 percent of the variation.
1
The linear equation for single-family units is y = 0.000223 * x + 2.6732 (r-square = 0.354597), where x
is square feet of living area and y is household size.
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The resulting linear equation (shown in Figure 2) shows the relationship between household size and
dwelling unit size for single-family unit. The graphed relationship shows that there is a strong
correlation between household size and unit size, and that the larger the unit the more people it is likely
to contain. As can be seen in Table 4, a single-family detached unit with less than 1,000 squa
an average of 2.78 persons, while a unit with 4,000 square feet averages 3.68 residents.
Table 4
SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY SQUARE FEET
Approximate Average
midpoint Household
(sq. ft.) Size
Dwelling Size Category
Less than 1,000 sq. ft.500 2.78
1,000 - 1,999 sq. ft.1,500 3.01
2,000 - 2,999 sq. ft.2,500 3.23
3,000 - 3,999 sq. ft.3,500 3.45
4,000 sq. ft. or more4,500 3.68
Source: Average household size is derived by substituting the midpoint
solving for y in the equation described in the preceding text.
If the calculated fees are based on dwelling unit size , it is recommended that the fees be based on square
footage rather than number of bedrooms. This cost per square foot approa ch will not only avoid any
type of confusion that might arise when trying to establish how many rooms a new unit might have, it
also avoids sharp jumps in the fee that will occur at thresholds
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Existing Residential Units
Estimating the number of existing residential dwelling units is a key building block for any impact fee
analysis, since it is essential for determining the exis ting level of service. This is critical because a
fundamental principle of impact fees is that new development sho
of service than is being provided to existing de velopment. Without an accurate estimate of existing
residential units, it is impossible to accura tely determine the existing level of service.
To estimate existing residential units, the consultant first analyzed the number of building permits issued
since 2000. Over the last five years and eight months, the County has issued 9,066 permits for single-
family detached units and 2,798 multi-family permit s, for a total of 11,864 new residential units.
Table 5
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS, 2000-2005
Housing Type200020012002200320042005Total
Single-Family Detached1,196 1,0811,1991,8522,1331,6059,066
Multi-Family/Other3472582754939444812,798
Total 1,5431,3391,4742,3453,0772,08611,864
Source: County of Hawai i building permit data by building type; 2005 data through Augus
The consultant then added the number of new building permits to
recorded in the 2000 U.S. Census. Since the census enumeration occurred on April 1, 2000, adding five
years and eight months of building permits yiel ds a reasonable estimate of dwelling units as of
approximately December 1, 2005. It is estimated that Hawai i County currently has about 57,297 single-
family units and 17,241 multi-family units and other units, for a tota l of about 74,538 existing dwelling
units.
Table 6
RESIDENTIAL UNITS BY TYPE, 2005
2000 2000-2005 2005
Housing Type Units Permits Estimate
Single-Family Detached48,2319,066 57,297
Multi-Family/Other14,4432,798 17,241
Total 62,67411,864 74,538
Source: 2000 units from the U.S. Census; 2000-2005 building permits by
housing type from Table 5.
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Existing Nonresidential Land Use
In addition to estimating existing residential units, it will also be necessary to estimate existi
nonresidential floor area in Hawai i County. The consultant was able to obtain nonresidential floor area
and corresponding land use codes for ex isting parcels of land in Hawai i County from the County Tax
Assessor. The square footage for existi ng nonresidential development in Hawai i County was estimated
by summing the total square footag e for all applicable parcels. Table 7 summarizes the nonresidential
development in Hawai i County by land use. It is estimated that the County currently has about 24
million square feet of nonresidential development, of which 9 million square feet is commercial/retail
space, 4 million square feet is office space, 2 million is institutional space and 9 million is
industrial/warehouse space.
Table 7
NONRESIDENTIAL LAND USE, 2005
Existing
Land Use Sq. Ft.
General Retail4,120,214
Auto Sales80,112
Bank203,856
Convenience Store/Se rvice Station146,028
Hotel/Motel3,742,488
Movie Theater63,712
Restaurant, Sit-Down635,613
Restaurant, Fast Food57,141
Subtotal, Commercial/Retail 9,049,164
General Office3,766,361
Medical Office268,618
Subtotal, Office4,034,979
Airport83,984
Auditorium/Theater262,282
Funeral Home17,050
Hospital245,374
Library104,917
Nursing Home215,819
Religious Institution401,833
School608,152
Social/Fraternity Hall221,158
Tennis/Racquet Club95,131
Subtotal, Institutional 2,255,700
Industrial417,246
Warehouse7,956,165
Mini-Warehouse248,253
Subtotal, Industrial and Warehousing8,621,664
Total Nonresidential Square Footage23,961,507
Source: Hawai i County, October 5, 2005; data derived from tax records; data a
January 1, 2005 assessment date for 2005 tax year.
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Nonresidential growth appears to be outpacing resi dential construction, based on building permit data.
Since the year 2000, the number of housing units has increased by a bout three percent annually, while
nonresidential square footage has been increasing by almost six
Table 8
GROWTH RATES, 2000-2005
2000 2000-2005 2005 Annual
Land Use Census Permits Estimate Increase
Single-Family Detached48,2319,06657,2972.91%
Multi-Family14,0562,76216,8183.04%
Total Residential Un its62,28711,82874,1152.93%
Total Nonresidential Sq. Ft.17,233,6266,727,88123,961,5075.65%
Source: Residential data from Table 6; 2005 nonresidential square foota
nonresidential permit data from County of Hawai i for January 1, 2000 through August 31, 2005; 2000
nonresidential estimate is difference.
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