HomeMy WebLinkAboutMulti-Hazard Mitigation Plan: 14. Droughts CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCY
COUNTY OF HAWAII
920 ULULANI STREET HILO,HAWAII 96720
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14. Droughts
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
CHAPTER 14 - DROUGHTS
14.1 Description of Hazard
14.1.1 Defining and Measuring Drought
Drought can be defined in relative or absolute terms. Relative drought is determined by the
fluctuations about average local conditions. Absolute drought refers to a single uniform level.
Relative drought recognizes that the severity of drought impact varies according to the
adaptations and vulnerability of natural and social systems relative to prevailing normal
conditions. Absolute drought is used primarily by researchers interested in large drought-
impacted areas. Relative drought is useful to examine drought conditions on this island.
Much of the information presented in this section was drawn from portions of a statewide
drought study(the"Hawaii Drought Plan") applicable to the Island of Hawai'i.67
Drought differs from other natural hazards in three significant ways. First, a drought's onset
and end are difficult to determine since the effects accumulate slowly and may linger even
after the apparent termination of an episode. Second,the absence of a precise and universally
accepted definition adds to the confusion about whether a drought exists, and if it does, the
degree of severity. Third,unlike most other natural hazards, drought impacts are less obvious
and are spread over a larger geographic area. These characteristics have hindered the
development of accurate,reliable, and timely estimates of drought severity and effects.
Of the several indicators used to measure drought, the most common is rainfall. A dense
network of rain gauges, and long term collected, collated, and published data provide an
excellent record of historic rainfall patterns and spatial variations on each Hawaiian Island.
There are two popular drought indices. The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was not
appropriate for Hawaii and it was decided that the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
should be used as an initial drought index for the state.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPT) was developed by Thomas McKee at Colorado
State for use as a drought monitoring tool and has been embraced by agencies such as the
National Drought Mitigation Center and the Western Regional Climatic Center. The beauty
of this index is its simplicity because it uses only monthly rainfall as its input. This simplicity
also makes it ideal for use in Hawaii, where there is a relatively dense network of rain gages.
In comparison, the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PSDI),which is in widespread use across
the Mainland U.S., is much more complex and requires temperature and soil moisture as
additional data inputs. These types of additional data are either sparse or non-existent in
Hawaii. Furthermore, the PDSI is more applicable to broad climatic areas and is not suited
for representing conditions in the small-scale climatic zones of the Hawaiian Islands.
67 Wilson Okamoto Corp."Hawaii Drought Plan".Prepared for the State of Hawaii,Department of Land and
Natural Resources,February 2005
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Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
Because the SPI values are normalized, the wide range of rainfall conditions across Hawaii
can be assessed on an equal basis. Furthermore, SPI values can be generated for multiple
time scales. This is extremely useful for monitoring purposes because drought affects the
various sectors over a wide range of time scales. Finally, since the SPI uses standard
statistical principles, it can also be used to monitor other data such as stream flow, reservoir
levels, and ground water levels. Table 14-1 is an example of a drought classification scheme
based on SPI.
Table 14-1. Drought Classification Based On SPI
SPI Values Designation Time in Category
0.00 to-0.99 Mild Drought 34.1%
-1.00 to-1.49 Moderate Drought 9.2%
-1.50 to-1.99 Severe Drought 4.4%
-2.00 or less Extreme Drought 2.3%
The Honolulu Forecast Office (HFO) of the National Weather Service (NWS) has tailored
the SPI software for use in Hawaii. At present, 59 sites have been selected as part of the SPI
monitoring network. These sites are separated into two groups called the "quick-look sites"
and the "standard sites". The "quick-look sites" use data from selected real-time reporting
stations that comprise HFO's flash flood monitoring network. Only 16 out of 69 real-time
reporting stations are available for use in SPI calculations due to the fact that most of these
locations have short periods of record that can result in risky statistical inferences. The main
benefit of the "quick-look site" is that the data are available immediately after the end of a
month so that SPI values can quickly be determined. The "standard sites" are selected
locations from the NWS Cooperative Observer network. Rainfall readings at these sites are
taken manually and submitted via mail after the end of the month to the NWS Pacific Region
Headquarters for preliminary quality control. The monthly data for the "standard sites" are
intercepted at this point and forwarded to HFO for SPI calculations.
The SPI method is designed to be flexible in terms of drought duration specified by users.
Short-term drought duration (e.g., 3 months) may be important for agricultural practices
while long-term duration (e.g., one year or longer) may be vital for water supply
management interests. Here, 3-month and 12-month are considered. If 3-month events are
desired, a moving average time series is constructed by summing the first three monthly
totals. Next precipitations for months 2, 3, and 4 are summed and then precipitations for
months 3, 4, and 5 are summed and so on. The resulting time series is then used to compute
the 3-month SPI. The 12-month SPI can be obtained in the same manner. The flexibility of
multiple SPI time values makes this index attractive because drought affects various sectors
across a wide range of time scales.
14.1.2 Causes of Drought
Droughts have been postulated to correspond with the global-scale oceanic-atmospheric
phenomenon known as ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation). El Nino is the anomalous
warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface. The Southern Oscillation is the seesaw
in atmosphere between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific. Various studies have
found some correlations but the predictive capabilities for drought events are still in the
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Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
developing stages. To complicate matters, global warming climate changes due to increasing
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other radiation-absorbing gases may
change the frequency, intensity, duration, and pattern of droughts.
14.1.3 Impacts of Drought
Droughts diminish drinking water supplies, cause agricultural losses, and increase the
incidence of wildfires. This island is particularly vulnerable to droughts due to pervasive
water catchment systems, reliance on diversified agriculture, and expansive pasture and
woodland areas susceptible to wildfires.
14.2 Significant Historic Events
Droughts have affected the Hawaiian Islands throughout its history. Farmers, cattle ranchers,
and individuals who rely on catchment water systems and surface stream diversions are the
communities most immediately affected by drought. Areas susceptible to wildland fires are
more vulnerable during very dry conditions, and incidences of wildland fire have increased
considerably throughout the State. Droughts have impacted almost every island in Hawaii
with the most severe events occurring in the past 15 years associated with the El Nino
phenomenon. During the El Nino years, droughts occurred during the winter-spring period.
For example, in January 1998, the National Weather Service's network of 73 rain gauges
throughout the State did not record a single above-normal rainfall, with 36 gages recording
less than 25 percent (%) of the norm (NWS Honolulu Forecast Office). The 0.14 inches of
rain recorded for the city of Hilo is the lowest monthly total ever observed for any month
since records have been kept. Normal January average rainfall for Hilo is 9.88 inches. Parts
of the island of Hawaii continued to receive less than 10% of the normal rainfall until May
1998.
Drought conditions will continue to affect Hawaii's environment, but the extent of drought
and the respective consequences will probably increase in severity. Severe drought
conditions may result in crisis-level shortages in water supplies for human consumption,
agricultural irrigation, and fire suppression for severe wildland fire hazards.
Crop damage and cattle losses have been major concerns during periods of severe drought,
resulting in the implementation of both voluntary and mandatory water- conservation
measures. The most recent drought of 1998 to 2003 has wreaked havoc on the farmers and
ranchers of Hawaii, especially those on the southeastern end of the State. Ranchers are grass
farmers whose cattle suffer from decreased grazing areas during drought conditions. The
recent drought left the State of Hawaii with reduced cattle carrying capacity, lower calf
production, and lower weaning weights, resulting in an enormous loss of revenue. The
consequences of this economic impact are compounded by the additional costs to ranchers
for supplemental feed and minerals required to sustain the animals during these periods.
The economic impacts of drought on Hawaii's cattle industry (i.e., estimated drought-related
loss) for 1999 and 2000 have been evaluated. increased cattle mortality and reduced calving
rates led to a direct loss in the total number of marketable cattle. The average live weight for
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Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
all marketed cattle in 1999 decreased by about 10% resulting in decreased revenue. In
addition to realized financial losses, overall cattle inventory was reduced by lower calving
rates and selloff of mature cattle due to the unavailability of inexpensive feed or forage. This
inventory reduction will contribute to economic losses for several years following drought
resolution. Cattle loss due to death increased by 4% and weaned weights were lower by 89
lbs/head in 1999. The dollar losses are as follows:
Drought-Related Impact 1999 Estimated Revenue Loss ($)
Reduced wean weight $3,291,241
Reduced calf crop $687,940
Increased mortality $2,495,750
Total: $6,474,931
The total financial loss for the year 2000 in the same areas of cattle-related impacts shown in
the above table is estimated at$9,078,360.
Most severe droughts on record in Hawaii have occurred during the years associated with El
Niflo — 1982/1983 and 1997/1998. According to the Pacific El Niflo-Southern Oscillation
Application Center,the dry conditions, in general, have been associated with persistent zones
of high-pressure systems throughout the islands. This feature related to El Nino is typical in
the tropical Pacific. Table 14-2 summarizes the history of severe droughts.
Ongoing Drought Conditions 2008—Present:
Drought conditions on Hawaii Island was given its first ever D4 (drought-exceptional)
designation in March 2010. West Hawaii rain gages showed that April 2010 rainfall was 50%
or less. Similarly, January—April 2010 total rainfall was also 50% or less for the majority of
rain gages around the island. October 2009—April 2010 wet-season rainfall was the driest in
30 years of record;ranchers reported the worst drought conditions ever.
Hawaii Department of Research and Development reported that in the Kona/Kau districts,
the production of coffee and macadamia nuts were down. The floriculture industry had
problems with irrigation water supply. In May 2010, DLNR Division of Forestry and
Wildlife closed four areas in the Mauna Kea Forest Reserve from the Hilo side of
Pohakuloa/Waikahaula to Pun Kemole due to extremely dry conditions.
There have been livestock deaths reported in Kawaihae. Parker Ranch is actively managing
pastures due to drought by moving herds. In response to the drought conditions, Parker
Ranch is culling as needed. Kona coffee farmers are suffering from drought conditions.
Coffee trees need steady rainfall beginning from the flowering period in order to produce
fruit/berries. For proper growth, coffee tress need 1 inch of rainfall per week. Impacts include
the loss of 1/3 of coffee trees and entire harvested coffee crop refused by roaster due to poor
berry conditions. Farmers who have access to water are irrigating intensively. Producers that
have no county water use rainfall catchments systems. These producers have to pay for water
deliveries, which is a financial hardship. Additional drought impacts include feral animals
14-4 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
(pigs) entering producers' fields and orchards destroying crops and damaging irrigation
systems.
Commission on Water Resource Management issued a press release asking residents and
businesses to conserve water and asked people to be aware of increased risk of wildfire due
to these drought conditions. Governor Lingle also sent a memo to all State departments
asking for water conservation inside and outdoors of State facilities. CWRM's role is to
coordinate any drought assistance efforts in the State and to assist counties to prepare and
respond to drought.
USDA Farm Service Agency reported that on July 14, 2010, the USDA Secretary designated
the four counties in Hawaii as disaster areas due to drought. The disaster designation triggers
several FSA assistance and loan programs. FSA regular loan program interest rate is lower
than the emergency loan interest rate. There are several disaster assistance programs that
producers can apply for. These include Supplemental Disaster Assistance Payment Program
(SURE), Livestock Forage Disaster Assistance Program (LFP), Livestock Indemnity
Program (LIP) Emergency Livestock Assistance Program (ELAP), Tree Assistance Program
(TAP), Non-insured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP), Farm Loan Program (FLP),
Reimbursement Transportation Cost Program (RTCP), and Emergency Conservation
Program (ECP). There is a new FSA program called the Reimbursement Transportation
Program, which can reimburse producers' transportation costs for their feed, fertilizer, etc.
There is $2.6M available under this program for Hawaii and other U.S. Territories.
14-5 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
Table 14-2. Historic Drought in the Hawaiian Islands
Year Areas Remarks
1901 North Hawaii Severe drought,destructive forest fires.
1905 Kona,Hawaii Serious drought and forest fires.
1908 Hawaii and Maui Serious drought.
1912 Kohala,Hawaii Serious drought and severe sugarcane crop damage for ttvo years.
1952 Kauai Long,severe dry spell.
19.53 Hawaii,Kauai,Maui, Water rationing on Maui;water tanks in Kona almost empty;867 head of
and Oahu cattle died;pineapple production on Molokai reduced by 30%;rainfall in the
1962 Hawaii and Maui State declared disaster for islands ofHawaii and Maui;crop damage,cattle
deaths,and severe fire hazards;losses totaled$200,000.
196.5 Hawaii State water emergency declared;losses totaled$400,000.
1971 Hawaii and Maui Irrigation and domestic water users sharply curtailed.
1975 Kauai and Oahu Worst drought for sugar plantations in 15 years.
1977- Hawaii and Maui State declared disaster for islands ofHawaii and Maui.
1980- Hawaii and Maui State declared disaster;heavy agricultural and cattle losses;damages totaling
1981 at least$ 1.4 million.
1983- Hawaii E1Nitio effect State declared disaster;crop production reduced by 80%in
1985 Waimea/Kamuela area;$96,000 spent for drought reliefprojects.
1996 Hawaii,Maui,and Declared drought emergency;heavy damages to agriculture and cattle
Molokai industries;losses totaling at least$49.4 million.
1998 Hawaii and Maui State declared drought emergency for Maui;County declared emergency for
Hawaii due to water shortages.
2000- Hawaii,Maui, Counties declare drought emergencies;Governor proclaims statewide drought
2002 Molokai,Oahu,Kauai emergency,Secretary of Agriculture designates all Counties as primary
2003 Hawaii,Maui, Secretary ofAgriculture designates all Counties as primary disaster areas due
Molokai,Oahu,Kauai to drought(2003);Governor proclaims statewide drought emergency.
2008- Statewide The first tune that D3(drought-extreme)had covered such a large area
Present (percentage)ofthe State.The current drought is worse than the 2000-2002
drought.
14.3 Probability of Occurrence
14.3.1 Hazard Areas
The impacts of drought can be categorized as economic, environmental, or social. Economic
impacts can be observed as costs and losses to agricultural producers, costs and losses to
livestock producers, and loss to the recreation and tourism industry. Environmental impacts
can be categorized into damage to plant species, damage to animal species, and hydrological
effects. Social impacts can be categorized as either health related, reduced quality of life and
changes in lifestyle related, or even in increased conflicts regarding water use. Drought
impact assessments begin by identifying direct consequences of the drought, such as reduced
crop yields, livestock losses, and reservoir depletion.
The risk of drought impact on the three sectors within the County of Hawaii is similar in
terms of spatial variation. Most of the areas of concern are on the western side of the island,
coinciding with low rainfall zones. What differs between each sector is the stage (moderate,
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Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
severe, or extreme) where drought risk may produce the most significant impacts. For the
water supply sector, all stages produce significant risk on the western side of the island. The
southern part of the island is also vulnerable to drought risk. The potential risk to this sector
is clearly illustrated by applying the 12-month SPI.
I
...:::....... water service Area
Reservoirs
Low Rain
::•...::::' ____= Medum Raub
140 Rain
.....
-:C: Census Pop.Per Sq.We
O.U27-0,126
0.705-2M72.34
Land Use DsW cis
Agric t-L(A)
j Conservation(C)
y Rural(R)
Urban(U)
A 0 U 70 30 40 Mies w
Figure 14-1. Drought Vulnerability to the water supply sector in the County of Hawaii
In terms of the agriculture and commerce sector, again the western side of the island is at
most risk, but the severe drought stage seems to coincide best with low rainfall areas on the
west and southwest ends of the island, where various kinds of agricultural activities thrive.
The use of a 3-month SPI shows well the potential risk to this sector.
14-7 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
i FGEM
Uk"Systems
'�l�: _ Far�nrtidl SVBarns
1 � �Alajcx Rosd5
i 1. '. ' IRa5-@fYUifS
LSiVD Rgnculture Areas
1 how Rainfall
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No Data
� hive Agneu flare Areas
- Low Rarnfall
Medium Ranfag
r —1.High Rainfall
No Data
- I
0 1f 21 30 40 Miles E
Figure 14-2. Drought Vulnerability to the agriculture sector in the County of Hawaii
For the Pahoa area, droughts begin most frequently in July and December. For the Kea'au ar-
ea, droughts begin most frequently in April-July and October-December. At the upper eleva-
tions near the Volcanoes National Park, droughts begin most frequently in October-January,
April, or June-July. Thus, island-wide droughts may begin any time of the year, and rainy pe-
riods can end droughts any time of the year. This island is prone to the most intense droughts
in the State. For frequency, the most drought-prone areas are the leeward areas such as South
Kona and North Kohala.
Current drought conditions are monitored nation-wide under a federal program involving
several agencies,which produce a coded map. Tt currently shows portions of the leeward side
of the island to be in an "extreme drought" condition, affecting both agriculture and water
systems (see Figure 14-3).
14-8 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
August 18, 2009
U.S. Drought Vaid7amEST
Hawaii
Oro tCvndifrans f'eresnf Area)
None D0-M 01-04 LU4N F �
Curt 30-0 70.0 51.4 329 3.1 O.D
LasMeek 121 87.9 55.4 33-9 3-1 OD
p9i�120[•?r a71
3 Months Ago 02 9g.8 43.4 23.2 0.0 0.0
�05Q5QIIE map}
SYart oY
GaendarYear 21.1 78.E 5110 33-7 7-8 0.0
start of
Water Year 1.6 98A 78.1 36.0 12.3 9.0
7
3!j7!2112 maps
Dne Year Aga, 1-8 98A 5110 33.5 7-8 0.0
�MI9QCC2 map}
BD D f ■t2 CrwgnL-sahame
::1 oraL]r--rfcder-e oa DrWgMt-Ercepucnar
::2 oraL]r--sevtrE-
The Drnf:ght ritor facuses an bfoad-scale eondlliom. USDA
Local conditraots may vary. See accompanvog text suraraarj, ����
for roreca.st statements. �". 4+Yny.urw`+u�,:..-. I$
Releaser!Thursday,August 20, 2009
http:!ldrought.unl.eduIdm Au froi:Laut'a Edwards, Western Regional Gfftnate GenrK
Figure 14-3. Federal Drought Monitoring Map
For wildfires, the State Division of Forestry and Wildlife (DOFAW) has the responsibility
for the prevention and suppression of wildfires on State land and to cooperate with local
agencies for the protection of wildlands on non-State land.68 To carry out this responsibility,
DOFAW has identified areas where it has primary responsibility and would respond
automatically, areas where it could respond mutually with other firefighting agencies upon
request, and areas totally out of its jurisdiction but where DOFAW could nevertheless
respond under specific conditions (e.g., extreme threats to public safety, local resources fully
committed, extreme fire behavior).
14.4 Risk Assessment
Currently there is no measure in place to quantify the potential economic impacts due to
drought and corresponding wildfire events besides historical data.
68 Hawaii Revised Statutes,chapter 185(Land Fire Protection Law).
14-9 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
14.5 Mitigation Strategies
14.5.1 Previous/Current Efforts
Tt is known that a dry winter and possibly a dry spring in Hawaii usually follow the onset of
El Nino. Given that the return period of El Nino is approximately three to five years, it would
be useful to conduct a study to better anticipate drought patterns and severity in the future
once an El Nino is developing. A similar study can be conducted for the La Nina events.
None of the many rainfall-enhancement techniques tried have proven successful in practice.
Better knowledge is needed on appropriate mitigation measures such as reservoir sizing that
factors drought conditions, longer irrigation ditches, drought-resistant crops, low rainfall cul-
tivation/tillage practices, changing planting to better areas during droughts, and designated
emergency common areas to move cattle.69
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), with support from other agencies, maintains a
drought mitigation center which assists states in developing drought mitigation plans.
Hawaii is developing their plan under the State Water Commission.
Crop insurance is available for mac nuts and some other primary local crops through the Co-
operative Extension Service (CES), a program of the USDA and the University of Hawaii.
This organization also provides information on drought-resistant plants and tillage.
This section on droughts and wildfires would need to be updated in the future with findings
from the ongoing study by the Hawaii Drought Committee.70 This study will identify drought
and wildfire hazard areas and suggest mitigation actions.
69 Dr.A.D.Wall,Horticulturist,personal communication,October 2003.
70 Wilson Okamoto Corporation,County of Hawaii Drought Mitigation Strategies(Draft),prepared for the Ha-
waii Drought Committee and State of Hawaii Commission on Water Resource Management,September 29,
2004.
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Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
14.5.2 Future Plans
Drought Mitigation Goals:
• Expand current network of rain gages to improve rainfall monitoring.
• Develop a framework to coordinate drought response between agencies.
• Enhance current monitoring of ground- and surface-water levels.
• Establish alert procedures for declining water level conditions.
• Establish conservation programs to reduce water consumption.
• Establish contingency water-hauling programs for livestock.
• Seek authorization and funding for development of new water supply sources.
• Identify areas at risk to drought and plan for regional response actions and strategies.
• Develop additional storage and/or alternative sources of water supply.
• Develop and implement drought-related public awareness programs.
• Develop incentive programs for drought resistant practices.
Project Description Status
Drought/Wildland Fire Mitigation Plan County of Hawaii Unfunded
Drought Mitigation
Strategy 2004
Update Drought Monitor website; Maintenance Ongoing
Update of Hawaii Rainfall Atlas:University
of Hawaii,March 2012.
Improvements to old plantation irrigation $30M Received partial FEMA
system tunnels and ditches:Lower Hamakua funding
Ditch System
Renovations/improvements to old plantation $3M Proposed Project
irrigation system tunnels and ditches:Kau
Sugar System Reactivation
Improvements to old plantation irrigation $26M Proposed Project
system tunnels and ditches and new Kauahi
reservoir:Waimea
Improvements to the Kohala Ditch Irrigation Proposed Project: Post-earthquake repair
Aqueduct Improvements to old plantation Ditch lining and/or closed completed
irrigation transmission system. piping work still needs to
L be done
i Renovate and Reactivate old abandoned $2.5M Proposed Project
plantation wells in Pahala
Renovate and Reativate old Hamakua $100,000 Proposed Project
Slaughterhouse well for non-potable
agricultural use in Honokaa/Hamakua
Construct new wells,surface water Investigation
diversions,storage and transmission lines in
priority areas
Irrigating wisely: Promote better irrigation $100,000 Proposed Project
practices and water management.
Agricultural Water System for Kona, $25M in planning
Honomalino: Provide a reliable source of
water for agriculture and fire fighting
assistance.
Evaluate vulnerability ofCounty water $1M Completed
si,stems and water trucking ca aci
14-11 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Chapter 14:Hazard Analysis—Droughts
Project Description Status
Emergency Community Water Stations:
Improve access to community water stations
and develop additional stations for persons
on catchment in priority areas.
Dam&Reservoir Improvements Pun Waaivaa Reservoir Note:other post-
Completed earthquake repairs are
currently heing
done%onapleted on
HDWS, DHHL,and
HDOA reservoirs
Develop wells,storage,and construct $20M for 177 ranch lots This project is underway
transmission systems for Puukapu encompassing 10,000 and will be completed
acres
Development and extension of domestic $10M Completed
water transmission system for Kawaihae
Extension of domestic water transmission Well,pump and tank
system for Oceanview being completed;water
spigot stations
aDevelop wells,storage,and construct Needs planning study Need to establish
Z.
transmission systems for Puna improvement district to
� finance this project.
Makalei Water System Improvements: $5M Proposed 4-yr Project
3 Develop additional wells and reservoirs as
well as upgrade the transmission system in
the area from Keahole to Kailua-Kona for
agricultural users.
Various Water System Improvements within $50M Proposed 15-yr Project
the County of Hawaii: Develop additional
sources,storage facilities,as well as upgrade
the transmission and distribution systems in
high priority areas.
14-12 Hawaii County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan