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EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS <br />The County's General Plan is a policy document that sets forth the direction for future <br />activities on the island of Hawaii for the next few decades. In order to plan for the future, it is <br />necessary to understand both historical and future trends related to the number of residents and <br />visitors to be served and the kinds of facilities and resources needed to fulfill their needs. <br />In traditional public planning efforts, entire plans have been based on the achievement of <br />the projected levels of population. In many of these cases, where population numbers are goals, <br />plans become obsolete when the projected number of residents is not achieved or is surpassed. <br />Thus, the population projections presented within the General Plan are not intended to be used as <br />goals. Rather, this General Plan effort uses the projected levels of population as a guideline in <br />land use planning. The projections represent what could reasonably be expected to occur in the <br />future. The goals, policies, standards, and recommendations of this plan are intended to be <br />flexible enough to accommodate population levels below or above the projections stated in this <br />section. <br />Employment and population projections for the County of Hawaii were developed through <br />the analysis of relationships between economic activity, employment, and population. The <br />analytical approach used entails the forecasting of employment in basic industries and the <br />relationship that changes in employment have upon population. <br />Primary Income Generators are those industries that generate income from outside the <br />County. They are assumed to be the foundation of the local economy and the key to the <br />development of the island. Primary Income Generators include agriculture, tourism, the <br />manufacturing of export products, and research and development. These Primary Income <br />Generators, in turn, "drive" the secondary industries, or those enterprises that service the Primary <br />Income Generators or the local population and includes wholesaling, retailing and services. The <br />Primary Income Generators determine the long -run pattern of population and income growth for <br />the County. <br />Three sets of projections were developed for the comprehensive review program, Series A, <br />B, and C. The major variables in each of these projections were the rate of growth of the visitor <br />industry, the construction of the proposed State prison, the expansion of the University of Hawaii <br />at Hilo, and the utilization of a post-harvest treatment facility for export agricultural products. It <br />should be emphasized that the projections are not statements of goals. The population projections, <br />and the strength of the correlation between primary economic generators and population growth, <br />must be viewed with caution. The 1989 General Plan contained a similar set of economic and <br />population projections. Visitor arrivals from 1990-2000, a primary economic generator, grew far <br />less than projected. The 1989 "Series A" projected a 35 per cent growth in westbound visitor <br />arrivals in the 1990-2000 period; the actual number barely increased. Agriculture, the other major <br />primary economic sector, lost jobs because of the loss of the sugar industry. During the same time <br />period, the county's population grew about 24 per cent, just slightly less than the 1989 Series A <br />projection of 27 per cent. It appears that there has been substantial population growth not driven <br />by economic opportunities in the primary industries. This may be due to in -migration of people <br />seeking other amenities such as a clean environment and rural lifestyle. <br />13 <br />Introduction <br />