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million dollars per year. Legalization would save an additional $5 million per year for a <br /> total of $10 million should legalization be adopted. In addition, legalization would create <br /> tax revenues between $4 and $23 million. The estimates provided here must make use of <br /> approximations in cases where data do not make possible a more detailed analysis. <br /> Wherever possible this report has used detailed information and approximations that bias <br /> estimated budget effects downward. <br /> r <br /> Methodology of Estimating Budgetary Implications of <br /> Decriminalization and Legalization <br /> By and large this report follows the methodology used by Miron (2003) in his <br /> analysis of the effects of decriminalization in Massachusetts. 5 As he suggests, the two <br /> w major budgetary implications of decriminalization are the savings in criminal justice <br /> resources and criminal fines that are shifted to civil fines. The former is the savings that <br /> result to the extent that police, prosecutors, forensic laboratories and court personnel are <br /> not used for marijuana possession offenses. Miron (2003) suggests that the savings on <br /> law enforcement is the predominant one. The amounts and collection of civil as opposed <br /> to criminal fines would likely be at about the same level; therefore the second effect <br /> ~ would be small. A look at court statistics, reported below tends to confirm this. <br /> The methodology used by Miron involves the following steps: <br /> 1. Determine the percentage of all Hawaii arrests that is for marijuana <br /> possession. <br /> 2. Determine the criminal justice budget for Hawaii <br /> 3. Multiply the first number by the second <br /> As Miron points out, these steps yield reasonable estimates based on certain <br /> assumptions. First, that average costs equal marginal costs. This means that law <br /> r enforcement is a constant cost industry; increased dollars spent on enforcement leads to <br /> w <br /> 'r s See, Jeffrey A. Miron, "The Effect of Mazijuana Decriminalization on the Budgets of <br /> Massachusetts Governments, With a Discussion of Decriminalization's Effect on <br /> Marijuana Use," Drug Policy Forum of Massachusetts. Also Jeffrey A. Miron, "The <br /> ~ Budgetary Implication of Mazijuana Decriminalization," June, 2005, The Marijuana <br /> Policy Project. <br /> w <br /> 3 <br /> <br /> w <br /> <br />