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FEB-17-98 TUE 14:58 ' ~ P. 94 <br /> <br /> ' " 4. FORECAST YEAR MODEL SIMULATION <br /> GI ~ <br /> Chapter 4, which revolves"around the forecast year (2020) travel estimation model and its <br /> application, deals essentially with three important topics, namely: (1) forecasting of land <br /> use%socioeconomic data by tiaffiG zone for the horizon yeaz; (2) definition and coding of the <br /> "existing plus committed" highway network for future year modeling; and (3) determination of <br /> year 2020 network deficiencies (in the absence of improvements other than those taken as <br /> committed), Each topic is addressed in tam <br /> 4.1 LAND USElSOCIOECONOMIC PROJEC'~!'IONS TO YEAR 2020 <br /> A forecast year of 2020 was selected for the long rangy, ]~ian update. Islandwide "control" totals <br /> for population, employment and visitors were d>:eloped by the State Department of <br /> Transportation using the State's econometzic modal. '1"he allocation of opulation, employment, <br /> visitors and land use to individual TAZs was c:arncd out by the consultant team using <br /> information from the Hawaii Count~General F'la~.r., and Development Plans, Land Use <br /> Commission applications and files, and Hawaii County I:)eparnnent of Water Supply p and s <br /> The islandwide totals for year 2020 provided by the State DOT for the consultant's use comprise: <br /> • Population (resident) 209,500 <br /> • Employment (civilian) 102,8(%0 <br /> • Visitors (annual) 1,800,000 <br /> In order to nut the travel demand model (trip generation module), year 2020 socioeconomic/land <br /> use figures needed to be disaggregated to the same spcri(ic variables as discussed in Chapter 3 <br /> Cor the base yeaz 1992. They also had to be assigned t ~ traffic zones. There ~.+~ere seven basic <br /> steps in the methodology for accomplishing these tasks, s follows: <br /> L Identify Approved Projects and Planned l:!~~velopment Areas <br /> 2. Distribute 2020 Population by Judicial L`is!rict <br /> 3. Consolidate 2020 Employment Projections 1'or TRANI'LAJ~I Model <br /> 4. Project School Enrollments and Emplo}~r ent <br /> 5. Project Number ofSingle-Fatnily Residential (RS), Multiple-Family Residential <br /> (RM) and Resort Condolninium (RC) YJni~.c based on Average Household S+ze <br /> 6. Distribute TRAM-PLAN Variables to TP.Zs <br /> 7. Project 2020 Attendance at Major Visiror t`,ttractions <br /> Bach of these steps, along with key associated assum,~iiims, are described below. Details by <br /> traffic analysis zone are famished in Appendix B. <br /> Hawaii Long Range Land Transportation Plan Page 28 <br /> DRAFT FINAL REPORT (January 1998) <br /> <br />