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EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS <br /> The County's General Plan is a policy document [which] that sets forth [guidelines] the <br /> direction for future activities [in] on the island of Hawaii for the next few decades. In order to <br /> plan for the future, it is necessary to understand both historical [trends] and future trends related to <br /> the number of residents and visitors to be served and the kinds of facilities and resources needed to <br /> fulfill their needs. <br /> In traditional public planning efforts, entire plans have been based on the achievement of <br /> the projected levels of population. In many of these cases, where population numbers are goals, <br /> plans become obsolete when the projected number of residents is not achieved or is sutpassed. <br /> Thus, the population projections presented within the General Plan are not intended to be used <br /> as goals. Rather, this General Plan effort uses the projected levels of population as a guideline in <br /> land use planning. The projections represent what could reasonably be expected to occur in the <br /> future. The goals, policies, standards, and recommendations of this plan are intended to be <br /> flexible enough to [cope with] accommodate population levels below or above the projections <br /> stated in this section. <br /> Employment and population projections for the County of Hawaii were developed through <br /> the analysis of relationships between economic activity, employment, and population. The <br /> analytical approach used entails the forecasting of employment in basic industries and the <br /> relationship that changes in employment have [relative to] upon population. [An econometric <br /> model was developed and utilized to project total employment and population.] <br /> Basic industries which receive] Primary Income Generators are those industries that <br /> generate income from outside the County. They are assumed to be the foundation of the local <br /> economy and the key to the development of the island. [Industries which are considered basic are] <br /> Primary Income Generators include agriculture, tourism, the manufacturing of export products, <br /> and research and development. These Primary Income Generators. in turn, "drive" the <br /> secondary industries or those enterprises that service the Primary Income Generators or the <br /> local copulation and includes wholesaling, retailing and services. The Primary Income <br /> Generators determine the long-run pattern of population and income growth for the County <br /> Secondary industries are those enterprises which service basic industries and/or <br /> population. Retail and wholesale trade, bakeries, utilities, financial institutions, and local <br /> government are examples of industries in this category. <br /> Three sets of projections were developed for the comprehensive review program, Series A, <br /> B, and C. The major variables in each of these projections [was] were the rate of growth of the <br /> visitor industry[.], the construction of the proposed State prison, the expansion of the <br /> <br /> University of Hawaii at Hilo, and the utilization of apost-harvest treatment facility for <br /> <br /> export agricultural products. [Plans for resort complexes and other factors were considered in <br /> <br /> the forecast of hotel rooms.] It should [again] be emphasized that the projections are not <br /> <br /> statements of goals. The population proiections, and the strength of the correlation between <br /> <br /> primary economic generators and population growth, must be viewed with caution. The <br /> 1989 General Plan contained a similar set of economic and copulation proiections. Visitor <br /> 19 <br /> Introduction <br /> <br />