2019 Hawaii Housing Planning Study

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In 2018, research on negative impacts of Overall, the State's population decline since 2016 regulation on housing reached a high point, with has been due primarily to losses in the City and the publication of Kevin Erdmann's book, Shut County of Honolulu. While the population change Out. Erdmann provides strong evidence that the has taken different paths for each county over the housing bubble of 2002-2007 and the resulting past 40 years, all three of the other Counties worldwide recession of 2008-9 were caused by a experienced a significant decline in population housing supply shortage stemming from over- growth rate since 2016. regulation in America's key housing markets. The situation has prompted a revision of Hawai`i's housing demand projections. It has also affected B. HOUSING DEMAND IN HAWAII several sections of this report, most importantly, our estimates of needed units for the next five 1. Historic Demand years. Table 6. Total Population, 1990-2018 a. Population and Growth Rates county Honolulu Hawaii Maui Kauai State Any discussion of housing demand must begin 1990 838,534 121,572 101,709 51,676 1,113,491 from population growth. It has been central to this 1991 850,510 127,266 105,599 53,379 1,136,754 1992 863,959 131,630 108,585 54,439 1,158,613 study since 1992. In 2019, population change 1993 870,348 135,085 111,944 55,461 1,172,838 may be the most important topic we cover here. 1994 878,591 137,713 114,754 56,478 1,187,536 1995 881,399 140,492 117,895 57,068 1,196,854 Table 6 shows the annual population by County 1996 883,443 141,935 120,689 57,688 1,203,755 since 1990. In the nineties, Hawai`i's annual 1997 886,711 144,445 122,772 57,712 1,211,640 population growth rate (1.9%) was lower than in 1998 886,909 145,833 124,648 57,843 1,215,233 1999 878,906 146,970 126,160 58,264 1,210,300 the previous decade. Between 2000 and 2010, 2000 876,629 149,244 129,078 58,568 1,213,519 population growth dropped to 1.2 percent per 2001 882,755 151,690 132,428 59,075 1,225,948 year. From 2010 to 2018, the rate fell to 0.5 2002 890,473 154,576 134,583 59,981 1,239,613 percent annually. That rapid decline culminated 2003 894,311 158,442 137,596 60,805 1,251,154 when, in 2017 and 2018, the State's population 2004 907,997 162,852 140,625 62,095 1,273,569 2005 918,181 168,237 143,448 62,863 1,292,729 went down by -0.3 percent each year. 2006 926,954 173,536 145,776 63,465 1,309,731 2007 925,335 177,733 148,117 64,490 1,315,675 Figure 3. Total Population, State and Counties of 2008 933,680 181,506 151,424 65,603 1,332,213 Hawaii, 1990-2018 2009 943,177 183,629 153,393 66,518 1,346,717 2010 956,296 185,358 155,096 67,213 1,363,963 250,000 1,600,000 2011 967,287 187,066 157,001 67,898 1,379,252 2012 978,073 189,164 158,977 68,691 1,394,905 1,400,000 2013 986,222 191,466 161,105 69,660 1,408,453 200,000 2014 987,649 193,736 163,153 70,324 1,414,862 ° 1,200,000 0 2015 991,339 195,941 164,130 71,074 1,422,484 2016 992,692 198,126 165,712 71,575 1,428,105 1,000,000 v 2017 986,429 199,503 166,491 71,780 1,424,203 z 150,000 2018 980,080 200,983 167,295 72,133 1,420,491 g 800,000 = AAPC 1990-2000 0.5% 2.3% 2.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0 AAPC 2000-2010 0.9% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.2% 100,000 600,000 o AAPC 2010-2018 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% AAPC 2016-2018 -0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% -0.3% 400,000 ° Source: DBEDT Data Book, Table 1.06. 50,000 200,000 b. Components of Population Growth 0 0 a N a g; w o 0 0 0 0 2 " 2 Hawai`i's population grew slower in the last decade than it did in the nineties. The State added ^-Hawai'i Maui Kauai -Honolulu -State an average of about 10,000 persons per year in Source. DBEDT Data Book Time Series, 1990-2018 the nineties, 15,000 per year in the previous Hawai'i Housing Planning Study,2019 Page 13 ©SMS December,2019