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We used data from the 2019 Housing Demand said they would never move from their current
<br /> Survey to produce estimates of raw, effective, and units. They had found the place they wanted to
<br /> qualified demand. live in and would stay there for the rest of their
<br /> lives. Another group said they might move but had
<br /> a. Raw Demand no plans to go anywhere very soon. Others said
<br /> they would move sometime in the next ten years.
<br /> Households with plans to move soon were
<br /> Survey householders were first asked when they classified as "movers" and the survey estimate for
<br /> would next move to a new housing unit. Some
<br /> raw demand.
<br /> Table 15. HHPS Demand Survey Demand Estimates, by County, 2019
<br /> County
<br /> Honolulu Maui Hawai'i Kaua'i State
<br /> Count Pct. Count Pct. Count Pct. Count Pct. Count Pct.
<br /> Total Households 311,451 68.4% 54,434 12.0% 67,054 14.7% 22,563 5.0% 455,502 100.0%
<br /> Will Not Move 108,025 34.7% 26,694 49.0% 34,175 51.0% 12,975 57.5% 181,870 39.9%
<br /> Raw Demand 203,426 65.3% 27,740 51.0% 32,879 49.0% 9,588 42.5% 273,632 60.1%
<br /> Will move, but no plans 67,934 33.4% 7,010 25.3% 8,400 25.5% 3,310 34.5% 86,654 31.7%
<br /> Move out of state 35,289 17.3% 4,105 14.8% 4,487 13.6% 1,332 13.9% 45,214 16.5%
<br /> Effective Demand 100,203 32.2% 16,624 30.5% 19,992 29.8% 4,946 21.9% 141,765 31.1%
<br /> Source: Housing Demand Survey, 2019. Raw demand is households except those who said they would never move. "Wll move, but no
<br /> plans"is the number of households who were unsure or refused to report when they expected to move. "Will move out of state"is the number
<br /> of households whose first location choice was out-of-state. Out-of-state and no plan households are excluded from effective demand.
<br /> In 2019, raw demand was 60.1 percent statewide,
<br /> up from 40 percent in 2011. At 65.3 percent of all Table 16. Top Six Reasons for Not Buying a Home,
<br /> households, the City and County of Honolulu had 2019
<br /> the highest raw demand. Other counties had County
<br /> similar levels of raw demand (Maui: 51%, Hawai`i: Honolulu Maui Hawai'i Kauai State
<br /> 49%, Kaua`i: 42.5%). For all movers to realize Too Expensive 57.3% 61.8% 51.9% 61.1% 57.2%
<br /> their expectations and move to a new housing unit
<br /> would result in 273,632 real estate transactions -- cannot Afford 33.9% 23.5% 25.9% 17.2% 31.0%
<br /> the number of units that would change hands Down Payment
<br /> duringtheperiod. Won't Stay
<br /> 17.6% 39.5% 32.1% 45.2% 23.1%
<br /> Long Enough
<br /> Do Not Want To
<br /> Reasons for Not Buying Buy; Prefer To 15.8% 41.6% 32.8% 47.9% 22.2%
<br /> Rent
<br /> We asked the 2019 Housing Demand Survey Can't Qualify ° ° ° ° °
<br /> respondents who were interested in moving to a fora Loan 20.5/ 13.8/ 15.9/ 7.6/ 18.6/
<br /> new home, but not interested in buying, why they Can't Afford
<br /> would not buy. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of them the Monthly 18.1% 15.2% 13.6% 11.0% 16.9%
<br /> told us that home prices were too high, or that it Payment
<br /> was too expensive to buy right now (Table 16). Source: Housing Demand Survey, 2019.
<br /> This was slightly lower than the 64 percent who
<br /> cited expense as a reason in 2016. Roughly three Over 22 percent of those who do not plan to buy
<br /> in ten (31%) said they could not afford the down a home said they preferred to rent(22.2%). Some
<br /> payment, while 17 percent could not afford the were not going to be in Hawaii for a long time and
<br /> monthly payment and 19 percent would be unable they did not want to be tied to any one place.
<br /> to qualify for a loan.
<br /> Hawai'i Housing Planning Study,2019 Page 19
<br /> ©SMS December,2019
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