2019 Hawaii Housing Planning Study

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Others were not ready for the commitment and Table 17. Effective Demand by County, 1992, 1997, maintenance that they would require. 2003, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2019 Effective Demand b. Effective Demand Percent of total households intending to move to a housing unit in Hawai'i In 2019, more households wanted to move away 1992 1997 2003 2006 2011 2016 2019 from Hawaii (Table A-13). Over 24 percent of all Honolulu 51.7 47.3 38.9 33.2 31.3 32.4 32.0 movers(24.2%)wanted to leave the State on their Maui 38.8 41.4 35.7 39.6 31.3 31.9 30.5 next move -- the highest rate since 1997. That's o Hawai'i 40.2 34.3 33.8 36.3 26.0 30.2 29.8 much higher than in other states, too. At a time when Americans are moving away from their Kauai 38.5 34.2 31.4 30.6 27.3 27.6 21.9 home state at unprecedented rates, Hawaii leads State 48.4 44.4 37.5 34.2 30.3 31.8 31.1 the nation in intentions to leave.37 Source: Housing Demand Survey, 1992, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2011, 2016,and 2019. Reasons for Leaving the State Some observers believe there is more interest in home buying now because sales are stable and Once again, there were many families moving out prices will be higher. Others see few reasons to of Hawaii because they could not afford to buy a buy and point to our decreasing population as a home, which is consistent with Hawai`i's high- caution to prospective buyers. Regardless of priced market and low homeownership rates. buyer motivations, HHPS data show that the level of effective demand inside Hawaii has remained Statewide, about 22 percent of respondents who unchanged since 2011. planned to leave Hawaii said the high cost and limited availability of housing was one of the Historically, the pattern of effective demand problems causing them to move. That was lower across counties has been stable. Honolulu's than the 31 percent in 2016 and 30 percent in effective demand is highest among the counties. 2011 who reported planning to leave the state for Among the Neighbor Island counties, effective housing-related reasons. demand has been highest in Maui County and lowest for Kauai County. Households that leave Hawaii will not increase demand for Hawaii housing units. For this reason, c. Qualified Demand we computed effective demand to include only respondents who will move within the State. Qualified demand narrows the demand estimate Across the State, effective demand fell in each further by considering only effective demand Housing Demand Study year between 1992 households that are financially prepared to (48.4%) and 2011 (30.3%). Statewide effective pursue their preferred tenancy and unit type. This demand climbed slightly to 31.8 percent in 2016 step eliminates households that do not have the but dropped back to 31.1 percent of all financial qualifications to purchase or rent housing households in 2019. units in the current economy. Based on this analysis, we estimate that 29 percent of effective demand households are financially prepared to acquire a different residence (Table 18). This is the lowest level of 37 U.S. data show Hawai'i is No. 2 among States (22.3%) LendingTree, November 19, 2019. See also New York for people wanting to leave. Kapfidze, Tendayi. 2019. Times. 2019. Frozen in place: Americans are moving at LendingTree study reveals the top states where residents the highest rate on record, Nov. 20, 2019. are staying put, moving from and moving to, Hawai'i Housing Planning Study,2019 Page 20 ©SMS December,2019