2011 Housing Planning Study - State of Hawaii

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NEEDED UNITS Table 12 shows the same supply forecast distributed according to the survey income in The ultimate objective of the modeling exercise each county as measured in the Housing was to estimate the number of new housing units Demand Survey. The 2011 Survey median needed in Hawaii in the near future. As in the income for the State was $58,700. past, we accomplished this in two steps: (1) estimate the total number of units required in the As identified by the Housing Demand Survey, Hawaii Housing Model; (2) estimate the types of the median household income for the State was units needed (by market level and units per $58,700. The median was slightly higher for the structure) based on the Housing Demand City and County of Honolulu ($59,076) and Survey. In 2011, we added a further step approximately equal for the County of Maui intended to estimate the numbers of elderly and ($58,424). Both Kauai and Hawaii Counties had family housing units needed in each county. median household incomes well below the statewide median ($49,730 and $49,696, respectively). Total New Units Needed Based on the model, the total number of housing units that will change hands in the period between 2012 and 2016 is approximately 60,000 to 75,000 units. This is the number of units that would be required to meet the needs of everyone who wanted to move. Most of those would be resales and not require any construction. The number of new units that would have to be built during that five-year period to meet new demand generated by changing demographic and economic conditions might be as high as 50,000. Some of those units will be produced by Hawaii's housing industry (public and private). Some will not. Units that are not built represent the shortage of units needed to fill total demand for housing units. The shortage results from market inefficiencies (lack of information or coordination, lag times, etc.), regulations that dampen supply, and economic realities (difficulties of producing units below market prices, etc.). This shortage has come to be known as "needed units" and is defined as the difference between total demand and expected supply. The supply forecast shown in Table 11 represents the needed units by HUD income guidelines. HUD guidelines define the income qualifications for service under most HUD programs. Hawaii Housing Planning Study,2011 Page 24 0 SMS, Inc. November,2011