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place <br /> Figure i.Map of Forecast Analysis Zone(FAZ)Areas(source:SMS) <br /> FAZ NAME <br /> -HPP-Orchidland <br /> -Hilo <br /> -Honoka-Paauilo <br /> _Ka'u <br /> _Knwaihae-Punko-Waikoloa-Waikoloa Resorts <br /> -Keaau-Kurtistown <br /> Lower Puna <br /> -North Hilo-Hamakua Coast Villages <br /> North Kohala <br /> -North Kona <br /> -South Kona Villages <br /> upper Puna <br /> -Waimea <br /> ni <br /> v <br /> In contrast to the RPT-based method for establishing a baseline,the housing forecast data produced by <br /> SMS rely on US Census and Hawaii DBEDT as sources. The methods used to collect Census and <br /> DBEDT data are quite different from RPT, resulting in differing 2015 baseline quantities. In addition, <br /> SMS did not suggest a 2015 baseline, instead using decadal increments for forecasting. In order to <br /> establish an SMS 2015 baseline, Placeways used the average of SMS's 2oio and the first forecast year <br /> Of 2020. This results in a 2015 baseline difference of 11,558 housing units(RPT 2015:75,1001 <br /> SMS/Census: 86,658). The reasons that the RPT and Census derived baseline amounts are different are <br /> due to the sources'two distinct methods, and no attempt was made to reconcile them. <br /> To calculate the amount of new residential growth, Placeways used a method to find the relative <br /> amount of net new amount of growth per FAZ. This method finds the percent change, per SMS, <br /> between 2015 and 204o and applies that to the RPT 2015 baseline. This forecast results in fewer net <br /> new units(35,750)than the SMS forecast(40,16o new units), but its rates of change match SMS. <br /> The SMS non-residential forecasts were already reconciled with the RPT data, and their forecast was <br /> calibrated to closely match the 2015 RPT baseline square footage. Therefore, in the case of non- <br /> residential growth,there was no need to rectify the forecast numbers as was the case with residential <br /> growth. Non-residential square feet were rounded and translated from square feet to 1,00o square feet <br /> Trend Scenario and Land Use Allocation Technical Report 3 <br />