2024-11-21 Moku Loa Hawaii Island Sierra Club Testimony (1)

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Vce The detailed procedure for creating the initial desirability surface, used to create the Trend Scenario, follows: 1. Spatial and non-spatial factors affecting location desirability were hypothesized. These factors, such as proximity to infrastructure or coastline, likely affected development desirability in the past and could be quantified for all parcels on the island given available information. While a complete list of factors tested is included at the end of this report, all hypothesized factors could fit into the following categories: • Distance to infrastructure, geographical features,town and commercial centers • Parcel shape/size • Terrain/climate characteristics • Neighbor(io ft)and neighborhood (i000 ft) context:the number of nearby parcels and development proximity(the number of nearby parcels that are built) • Current land use and build status • Geographic location (District, FAZ, etc.) • Property and building valuation. Using CommunityViz,these factors were calculated for each parcel on the island and exported to a table for use in SPSS statistical analysis software. 2. Statistical regression analysis in SPSS was used to calculate how well each factor correlates with new development in a given time frame. Three timeframes were initially considered: • All development since the beginning of RPT(County of Hawaii Real Property Tax Office) recordkeeping (188os) • All development since 1995 • All development between 1975 and 1995. However, because the goal of this statistical regression was to capture the principal factors influencing urban growth in the recent past, a cutoff date of 1995 was established. This year was selected to encompass a full cycle of real estate development and to capture the"highs and lows"in development activity. Development during this period followed this approximate pattern: • Trough: 1996 • Peak: 2005-2006 • Trough: 2009-2011 • Recent uptick: 2015. The SMS CoH 2016 General Plan Final Report(Figure 1, Resident Population) illustrates this pattern. The statistical analysis models the relationship between dependent variables—Commercial Square Feet(COM_SQFT)and Number of Residential Buildings(NumberOf Residences)—and the hypothesized list of independent variables(see Appendix 1,Table 12. Factors Tested for Historical Growth Trends). As a result, a step-wise Multiple Linear Regression model was chosen to create coefficients associated with each of the variables in order to represent the independent contributions of each independent variable to the prediction of the dependent variable after controlling for all other independent variables. Trend Scenario and Land Use Allocation Technical Report 7