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2.0 WASTE STREAM ASSESSMENT <br />Historical generation in tons, pounds per- capita per -day, tons per person - employee, <br />population, and employment are shown in Exhibit 2 -10. As shown, the overall trend over <br />the past seven years through FY 07 -08 had been for strong growth in all of these variables, <br />including more than 4- percent annual growth in per- capita and per person - employee <br />generation. However, the slowdown in the world economy resulted in a substantial decline <br />in waste generation in Hawaii County during FY 08 -09. During the first eight months of the <br />fiscal year, disposal was down 17 percent from the first eight months of FY 07 -08. <br />EXHIBIT 2 -10 <br />Historical Generation Trends, Hawaii Count <br />Year <br />Generation <br />(tons) <br />Tons <br />Population <br />Employment <br />Pounds/ <br />capita /day <br />Tons /person- <br />employee <br />FY 00 -01 <br />190,241 <br />149,261 <br />214,711 <br />7.0 <br />0.52 <br />FY 01 -02 <br />190,764 <br />150,860 <br />218,160 <br />6.9 <br />0.52 <br />FY 02 -03 <br />200,300 <br />153,162 <br />219,312 <br />7.2 <br />0.54 <br />FY 03 -04 <br />239,217 <br />156,320 <br />230,370 <br />8.4 <br />0.62 <br />FY 04 -05 <br />281,855 <br />160,129 <br />235,629 <br />9.6 <br />0.71 <br />FY 05 -06 <br />300,121 <br />164,770 <br />243,420 <br />10.0 <br />0.74 <br />FY 06 -07 <br />290,865 <br />169,419 <br />250,719 <br />9.4 <br />0.69 <br />FY 07 -08 <br />296,473 <br />173,057 <br />256,207 <br />9.4 <br />0.69 <br />FY 08 -09 est. <br />254,920 <br />Average Annual <br />Percent Change <br />6.5% <br />2.1% <br />2.6% <br />4.3% <br />4.1% <br />The forecasts shown in Exhibits 2 -11 through 2 -13 assume 0- percent growth in generation <br />per person - employee in FY 08-09,5 percent per year in FY 09 -10 - FY 11 -12 (as the economy <br />improves from recession), and 1- percent growth thereafter. The reasons for these <br />assumptions include the following: <br />• The severe worldwide recession has resulted in a dramatic (17 percent) decline in <br />disposal during the first eight months of the 2009 fiscal year (compared to the first eight <br />months of FY 07 -08). It is likely that it will take some time for construction and <br />underlying waste generation to approach the levels that existed prior to the recession. <br />• Waste generation (per person - employee) did not change significantly between FY 04 -05 <br />and FY 05 -06 and has declined thereafter: FY 07 -08 tons per person - employee is about <br />7 percent lower than what it was in FY 05 -06. <br />• The strong growth in FY 03 -04 and FY 04 -05 was in part related to booming construction <br />and disposal of large quantities of storm debris. <br />2 -8 December 2009 <br />