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2.0 WASTE STREAM ASSESSMENT <br />• The County's record - keeping practices have steadily improved over the period, <br />particularly in recycling. Thus, actual increases in generation in the early years may have <br />been less than shown in Exhibit 2 -10. <br />• The recent slowdown in the economy has the potential to moderate per- capita waste <br />generation for a period of time. <br />• Ongoing efforts by the County and local residents, businesses, and institutions to reduce <br />waste may help moderate waste generation in the future. <br />• Most jurisdictions in the U.S. report little change in per- capita generation in recent years. <br />Nationwide, the EPA reports long -term per- capita waste generation growth of <br />1.2 percent per year from 1960 to 2006, with per- capita generation being essentially <br />unchanged since 1990. <br />Forecast generation, recycling, and disposal are shown in Exhibits 2 -11 and 2 -12. As shown, <br />assuming planned increases in the County's diversion rate, disposal is projected to increase <br />from 210,030 in FY 07 -08 to 253,085 by FY 27 -28. <br />Forecast disposal for recycling and transfer stations and commercial customers in both East <br />and West Hawaii are presented in Exhibit 2 -13. <br />EXHIBIT 2 -11 <br />Forecast Generation, Recycling, and Disposal and Recycling Rate, Hawaii County <br />Year Generation Recycling Disposal Recycling Rate <br />FY 07 -08 296,473 86,443 210,030 29.2% <br />FY 12 -13 <br />315,881 <br />126,352 <br />189,529 <br />40.0% <br />FY 17 -18 <br />357,759 <br />157,414 <br />200,345 <br />44.0% <br />FY 22 -23 <br />402,442 <br />177,075 <br />225,368 <br />44.0% <br />FY 27 -28 <br />451,937 <br />198,852 <br />253,085 <br />44.0% <br />Average Annual Growth Rate <br />FY 07 -08 — <br />12 -13 <br />1.3% <br />7.9% <br />-2.0% <br />FY 12 -13 — <br />17 -18 <br />2.5% <br />4.5% <br />1.1% <br />FY 17 -18 — <br />22 -23 <br />2.4% <br />2.4% <br />2.4% <br />FY 22 -23 — <br />27 -28 <br />2.3% <br />2.3% <br />2.3% <br />Assumes diversion rate ramps up from 29.2 percent in FY 07 -08 to 44 percent by the end of the <br />5 -year planning cycle (FY 14 -15). In order to be conservative for the purposes of estimating <br />remaining capacity at County landfills, the diversion rate is assumed to remain at 44 percent <br />throughout the forecast period. Future recycling programs would hopefully reduce waste going to <br />landfills further. <br />Assumes 0- percent growth in generation per person - employee in FY 08 -09, 5 percent per year in <br />FY 09 -10 — FY 11 -12 (as the economy improves from recession), and 1- percent growth thereafter. <br />December 2009 2 -9 <br />