2018 Consolidated plan 2015 to 2019

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Needs Assessment NA -05 Overview NmedoAsses$nmemtOverv|exv The Hawaii Housing Model was developed to provide forecasts. Initiated in 1992, the Model was expaqdedeachtimoetMpSLudywasupdated.|temiststudayasasupplyamddcnmamdmod&ofHaw/a|l^s housing market. It treats each County as an independent housing market that can be su'mrned to describe housing activity for the entire State. For those wbo are interested, the most recent version of the Hawaii Houing Model is further described the Technical Report. HOUSING DEMAND The Hawaii Housing Model sumrnarizes demand in terms of units sold each year and produces separate estimates for singe-famiIy and multhfamily units. For past years, dernand is based heavily on the unit sales reported by county boards of realtors and subsequently reported by DBEDT. Saes forecasts or future years are based on past performance of the housing market and several other factors including population growth, household formation, household income, and expected interest rates, Important parameters set for the statewide forecasts shown here are as follows: a population growth rate of 1.0 percent per annum, household size dropping by *01 points per decade, household income growth rate of about 2.6 percent per annum, and interest rates beginning at 4.0 percent in 2011 and rising to 6.25 percent by20}O Modeled Demand Data for demand estimates for the State housing market from 1980 through 2030 for single-faniily and multi -family unit sales indicate that in years before 2011, the sales figures were based on resales reported by boards of rea|too. Vn the last two studies, estimates for new unit sales and sales prices have become aviabe. Post -2010 new unit counts reflect the assumptions noted above and the history of the housing market since 1980. NA -05 P2 As noted earlier, the Hawai'i housing rnarket has been cychcal over the ast 35 years. Very generaily, we have had three major market expansions followed by periods of post- expansion adjustment. The cyclical nature of sales is definitely a feature of our housing market and there is no indication that the underlying factors responsible for those cycles will change significantly in the future. The model, theref�re, forecasts continuation of that pattern. It produces another housing runup beginning later in this decade. We note that the quality and quantity of housing -related data has improved notably since Consolidated Plan OMB Control Nifty zsus-01rr(e^o OG/30/20� HAWAII COUNTY 18