2018 Consolidated plan 2015 to 2019

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„„„W, moilr ="~^ 00001/ 111011111, /, 1992. The rnod& and its forecasts benefit from the irnprovernent and reflect improvernent in dea through the years. The forecast suggests continued slow growth in Hawa'Vs housing market in the short term, tmredicts slow sales between 2011 and 2017, We do not expect any further decreases in sales. Obviously, changes in model assumptions would alter results. Increasing employment, for instance, would push up househod incomes, shortening the current adjustrnent period and increasing the v&ume of the next runup. Increasng interest rates would have the opposite effect, HOUSING SUPPLY The Hawaii Housing Model measures supply in terms of housing units added each year with separate estimates for single-family and rnuIti-famy units. For past years, added units are the difference between housing unit counts for two adjacent years. Forecasts of added units are based on past performance of the housing market, population growth household formation, household income, and expected interest rates. The assumptions applied for the supply forecast are the same as those noted above for the demand forecast, NA -05 P3 The market cycles are apparent in the suppy forecast justas they are in the demand estimates. The forecast ust as they are in the demand estimates. The forecast foliows a similar pattern of rapid growth and Ionger adjustment periods durng which housing prices faH slightly and production is reduced significandy. The forecast suggests continued sow growth in Hawai'is housing market.SpecificaUy, it predicts slow sales between 2O1Iand 2O17, Further decreases in sales are not expected. With the standard caveat that reliability of forecast estimates decreases in later years. Again, chaing assumptions would alter the forecast. increasing population growth, decreasing unernployment and ow interest rates aM work toward iricreasing demand and therefore the need for marc housing units. Sower growthh in any of those assumptions would decrease the need for new units. NEEDED UNITS The ultimate bjective of the modeling exercise was to estimate the number of new housing units needed in Hawaii in the near future, As in the past, we accomplished this in two steps: (1) estimate the total number of units required in the Hawai'i Housing Model; (2) estimate the types of units needed (by market level and units per structure) based on the Housing Demand Survey. In 2011, we added a further step intended to estimate the numbers of elderly and family housing units needed in each county, Consolidated' Plan OMB Control No 2506-0117 (exp 06/30/2018) HAWAII COUNTY 19