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EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS The County's General Plan is a policy document that sets forth the direction for future activities on the island of Hawaii for the next few decades. In order to plan for the future, it is necessary to understand both historical and future trends related to the number of residents and visitors to be served and the kinds of facilities and resources needed to fulfill their needs. In traditional public planning efforts, entire plans have been based on the achievement of the projected levels of population. In many of these cases, where population numbers are goals, plans become obsolete when the projected number of residents is not achieved or is surpassed. Thus, the population projections presented within the General Plan are not intended to be used as goals. Rather, this General Plan effort uses the projected levels of population as a guideline in land use planning. The projections represent what could reasonably be expected to occur in the future. The goals, policies, standards, and recommendations of this plan are intended to be flexible enough to accommodate population levels below or above the projections stated in this section. Employment and population projections for the County of Hawaii were developed through the analysis of relationships between economic activity, employment, and population. The analytical approach used entails the forecasting of employment in basic industries and the relationship that changes in employment have upon population. Primary Income Generators are those industries that generate income from outside the County. They are assumed to be the foundation of the local economy and the key to the development of the island. Primary Income Generators include agriculture, tourism, the manufacturing of export products, and research and development. These Primary Income Generators, in turn, "drive" the secondary industries, or those enterprises that service the Primary Income Generators or the local population and includes wholesaling, retailing and services. The Primary Income Generators determine the long -run pattern of population and income growth for the County. Three sets of projections were developed for the comprehensive review program, Series A, B, and C. The major variables in each of these projections were the rate of growth of the visitor industry, the construction of the proposed State prison, the expansion of the University of Hawaii at Hilo, and the utilization of a post-harvest treatment facility for export agricultural products. It should be emphasized that the projections are not statements of goals. The population projections, and the strength of the correlation between primary economic generators and population growth, must be viewed with caution. The 1989 General Plan contained a similar set of economic and population projections. Visitor arrivals from 1990-2000, a primary economic generator, grew far less than projected. The 1989 "Series A" projected a 35 per cent growth in westbound visitor arrivals in the 1990-2000 period; the actual number barely increased. Agriculture, the other major primary economic sector, lost jobs because of the loss of the sugar industry. During the same time period, the county's population grew about 24 per cent, just slightly less than the 1989 Series A projection of 27 per cent. It appears that there has been substantial population growth not driven by economic opportunities in the primary industries. This may be due to in -migration of people seeking other amenities such as a clean environment and rural lifestyle. 13 Introduction