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EXHIBIT B
<br /> DJ ilea di i frologrcal Economies 111(2015)100-110 tin
<br /> and social impacts.We parameterized the model with government data, several years lose their sight(Thei.on,2005).Little Fire Ant infestations
<br /> primary survey data,and information from experts and practitioners, put agriculture crops and workers at risk(Fahres and Brown. 197)).
<br /> We specified several levels of management and simulated outcomes When Little Fire Ant is present, aphid populations explode due to
<br /> with Microsoft Excel using Frontline Risk Solver PlatformC. mutualism(Fasi et al.,2013)and farm workers are stung repeatedly.
<br /> Plant nurseries can and have gone out of business due to lost productiv-
<br /> 1.3.Background ity, high treatments costs, and a reluctance by consumers to buy
<br /> infested stock.Wild honeybee hives in Hawaii have been swarmed
<br /> Ants were first introduced when the Europeans settled the islands, and destroyed by LFA.
<br /> in the 18th century,Hawaii is now home to 47 introduced ant species Once established.Little Fire Ant can occupy their habitat at an ex-
<br /> (Krushelnycky et al,2(105);with the recent introduction Little Fire Ant traordinarily high density.Souza et al,(2008)estimate that total popu-
<br /> W.auropunctata regarded as potentially the most destructive.USDA- lation size can exceed 200 million ants per hectare with worker:queen
<br /> ARS(2010)estimate that total damages,losses and control costs attrib- ratios of approximately 400 (Ulloa-Chacon and Cherix. 1990).This
<br /> uted to invasive fire ants in the United States is$5,6 billion per year. equates to a density of 20.000 ants per square meter,of which 40 will
<br /> Little Fire Ant arrived on the island of Hawaii most probably in the be queens.
<br /> 1990's and by the time the infestation was detected in 1999(Conant Best-practice mitigation activities for affected residents and busi-
<br /> anti Hirayama.2000),Little Fire Ant had spread to 13 separate locations. nesses comprise a regular(six weekly)application of granular baits to
<br /> Aggressive control actions were undertaken immediately, however exterior areas combined with the use of residual pesticides both inside
<br /> Little Fire Ant continued to spread(Conant.2002)and by 2004,infested and on the exterior of structures.The Hawaii Ant 1.2b(University of
<br /> 31 locations(Fig.1).In the years following its initial detection,Little Fire Hawaii).with a staff of five people,provides research,outreach,educa-
<br /> Ants have spread to three other islands in the Hawaii archipelago:Maui, don,training,advice and limited mitigation activities for all invasive ant
<br /> Kauai(Vanderwoude et ai.,201N and Oahu in late 2013. issues in the state of Hawaii including maintaining a website 2 with in-
<br /> The source of Little Fire Ants found in Hawaii is most likely Florida formation on impacts and remedies.The Big Island Invasive Species
<br /> USA.Little Fire Ants have an unusual form of reproduction.In intro- Committee provides education and outreach on Little Fire Ant and
<br /> duced populations,almost all female reproductive offspring are geneti- other invasive species on the island of Hawaii.
<br /> tally identical to the parent female and males are genetically identical to In modeling invasive species management,Mumford and Norton
<br /> the male parent.This clonal form of reproduction allows the source of (1984)applied Bayesian decision theory to determine the timing and
<br /> new Mvasive populations to be traced to the source population with a level of management as a function of the invasive species population
<br /> high degree of certainty.Foucaud et al.(2010)determined that the clon- density.Eiswerth and Johnson (2002 i and Eiswerth and van Kooten
<br /> al lines of Little Fire Ants in Hawaii are identical to those of introduced (2002)incorporated dynamics to model population growth and uncer-
<br /> populations in Florida USA, tainty to allow for weather variability.To obtain closed-form solutions
<br /> Due to the severity and extent of impacts,LFA is considered among to the optimal invasive species management problem.Burnett et al.
<br /> the world's worst invasive species(Lowe et al.,2000),In homes,schools, ',2007). Carrasco et al. (2010l, Mehta et al, (2007), Taylor and
<br /> lodging,and parks,Little Fire Ant will sting adults,infants,children and Hastings (2004), and Olson and Roy (2003) assumed a continuous
<br /> pets.The reaction to stings varies from person to person.Some people rate of spread and employed optimal control modeling. Leung et al.
<br /> experience a severe reaction with a great deal of pain and large raised (2002)modeled discrete invasive species spread employing stochas-
<br /> welts that itch for a week or more.Babies can receive numerous stings tic dynamic programming.
<br /> within a few minutes of exposure.Pets are stung in the eyes and over Prevention management including monitoring invasion pathways
<br /> associated with trade,transport and travel and inspecting potential
<br /> vectors was modeled by Perrings (2005). Olson (2006) modeled
<br /> epee
<br /> re... Hawari invasive species introduction as a random variable and included pre-
<br /> ‘t
<br /> Area Map vention as a means to reduce the probability of introduction. Leung
<br /> ' sisay.11Vea.,‘"4", ei al.;,2002)specified prevention success as exponentially distributed
<br /> and diminishing with effort.Mehta et I.(2007)indicated that preven-
<br /> -000A1,' ..,,l,•.‘s,e.-- tion may do little to stop spread when the probability of introduction is
<br /> '';,,l'., -
<br /> al e.alizzake4tillike.l4a givaa,", small or when the number of invasion pathways is large,and modeled
<br /> detection as a means of locating new introductions before they have
<br /> . 4.AVV;0'4:-',7`,.,';4,',--- "..,,,,,,, :,:k:':0•Vi".; ' had a chance to spread.where the probability of detection increases
<br /> with the level of effort.
<br /> I New New introductions and established infestations require mitigation
<br /> treatment in the form of chemical,mechanical,and manual means to re-
<br /> duce or eliminate the infestation.Treatment effectiveness as a stochastic
<br /> process that decreases with effort was modeled by Feder(1979:a The
<br /> , , effectiveness of successive treatments was modeled with a cumulative
<br /> 0..7,etoR... . probability distribution by Lichtenberg and Zilber man(1986).OlsonWP,4,;:, '
<br /> and Roy(2003) used dynamic programming to determine the condi-
<br /> '' --•"'44'W AY50';''?a:',',:':ala;',;..*'"'
<br /> tions under which eradication, mitigation, and no mitigation are
<br /> optimal.
<br /> „4:•::';;;aaael 'e!:',:-Xil_''' . a,–
<br /> The marginal cost of invasive species management was modeled as a
<br /> linear function that increased with the size of the infestation by Hastings
<br /> ,4,1‘44ktiltpi* 0.— et al.(2006)and Burnett et,sl 2007 as a convex function by Olson
<br /> ' 411!**4?;' mni......
<br /> usi a...ea
<br /> N. (2006); and as a budget constrained function by Taylor and Hastings
<br /> gm 9004-8404 im 4 (2004;,and Hastings et al. (2006).The marginal economic damage
<br /> 14451 caused by the infestation was modeled as a linear function that
<br /> Fig.I.Regions 0014waii Island with one or more infested locations(red),(For interpre-
<br /> tation of the references to color in this figure legend,the reader is referred to the web
<br /> version of this article,,', 2 Www.fittketireatIts.com.
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