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EXHIBIT B 104 D.J.Lee et at/Ecologieai Economics 111(2015)100-110 50% �--Akt sectors 4791 45% 35% _ — 33% C 03 3f1°� 279 '4,1,12, it X Q 2095 __...__ _ _._.._..._._.. 19°F ` i o _�.._._. �' , ° : ' F4:.: ,:.:',:',�3c 15% -- 13%- - ! �. .._. ._ 1096 10% „fail 2 'A( "lam” 0% ,9 5 10 20 35 ®Least test mLCurrent management Year RReduced management Fig.2.Linke Fire Ant infestation by management type and year across all sectors. probability that LFAs are transported between locations,Investment in Detection investment or is in units of person-hours per sector per mitigation reduces the level of infestation at established locations, year and lira (.0d,7 Lr 1. 2.2.2.1.Decision Variables.The decision(control)variable,do.",deter- Mitigation reduces the number of infested locations within a sector. mines the level of effort in prevention,detection,and mitigation in Here mitigation effort is measured in terms of the number of insecticide each sector i at each time period€.Prevention and detection activities applications drr`t °te per sector per year.` Each application eradicates are non-negative and unbounded,i.e.,der "1- ddre"?0.Mitigation LFA with probability,gym"g"e such that treatment is nonnegative and bounded where 0 5 d7 °° S 4. mitigate rnattgate,d,'" ''" 2.2.2.2.Effectiveness.LFAs are elusive and as a result management actin- 6'` =I (1 �,r i 13) } ities are imperfect.The annual probability that any management activity and lint dm � a eLi nLiid6mre1 = (prevention,detection.or mitigation)will succeed is less than one.We model management success with a geometric distribution.Where A is Management effort effectiveness parameters are derived from rec- the probability of success(e.g.preventing a new infestation at one loca- ommended best management practices and expert opinion. tion),Ford�1,the probability of success is 0=0,ford� I,and the probability of success is: 2.2.3.infested Locations and Spread d The initial infestation N� is set equal to the number of LFA infested d=1—(i—A) (10) (established)locations in 2012 as shown in Table 1.The spread where 0< _<1 and U b 1. sub- model simulates the survival,growth,and dispersal of LFA over time Prevention encompasses efforts to thwart new infestations by re- within and between economic sectors With this pseudo-spatial repre- ducing movement of LEA between locations.Prevention effectiveness sensation.we simulate LEA spread as occurring with the movement of }prevenrde ends on theprobabilityof stopping spread ewe'and the in- goods and people over time within and across sectors.With information ppp g p on acres per unit(location)and units per sector,we estimate infested vestment in prevention d(r': acreage over time as follows:at each newly infested location the status / �P„ transitions from"introduced"to either"uninfested"or"incubating"' eweu= 1...._11—>tP "t� (11) and then to"uninfested"or"incubating"or"established."The model l tracks the number of locations N in sector i at time t for each state of Prevention investment dr'rei'° Es.(0,°)is in units of person-hours infestation(...) as given by N;I'a whole number value that cannot per sector per year and lim (Ort. a`� �_ 1. exceed the number oflocationsper sector defined here as: Ni,r' ax .a 0 and E NP t'S P1j . Monitoring for LEA increases the likelihood that newly introduced .) LEA colonies are found before they can establish,grow,and spread.De- tection effectiveness Of'depends on the probability of detecting an 22.3.1.Incubation,Detection,Mitigation.During incubation,LFAs repro- LEA infestation Ade°'°and investment in detection or-'. duce but do not spread.The number of locations with incubating popu- lations equals the number of locations infested from other sectors tes t�) ererr=I_ 1_Adieterr o"" m rtroauced plus the number of locations infested internally N °"&' tea While incubating,LEA can be detected with effectiveness Ede .The a Insecticide application frequency is limited to 4 times per year per the manufacturer's °This formulation of early detection is a modification of the functional form put forth by instructions. Carrascoetat(20t0;, a Nascent.